How Spotify Raised $2.56 Billion (But Might Not Survive)

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How Spotify Raised $2.56 Billion (But Might Not Survive) - a Case Study for Entrepreneurs

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How Spotify Raised $2.56 Billion (but Might Not Survive). Watch, share and subscribe to Valuetainment bit.ly/2aPEwD4.
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Пікірлер: 271

@GrowingForever 7 жыл бұрын

Tom, thank you for these case studies, you should have your own show on CNBC.

@VALUETAINMENT 7 жыл бұрын

+Growing Forever - I happen to have a ton of respect for CNBC. David Faber and the Morning crew are cool cats who know their stuff. - Thanks - Tom

@baldeepbirak 6 жыл бұрын

Hope Spotify makes it without a take over. More competition is good for consumers.

@VALUETAINMENT 6 жыл бұрын

+Baldeep Birak I agree with you 100% thanks - Tom

@Swoldridge 7 жыл бұрын

For the music industry sake they better hope Spotify survive because if not I'm not going back to buying albums. I'm going back to pirating.

@stephenj1118 7 жыл бұрын

Stefan Woldridge I always pirate haha

@brian8279 7 жыл бұрын

Stefan Woldridge KZfaq red? Unlimited songs $10 a month, no ads.

@Swoldridge 7 жыл бұрын

BrianGames I already have KZfaq Red. I meant streaming in general not just Spotify. I only mention Spotify because apple is the second largest and very few people would convert to it and the music industry will suffer in-between the time people switch to something else.

@Swoldridge 7 жыл бұрын

stephen jang I did for 15 years then finally got Spotify because it was just easier. Plus, I'm supporting a company I believe in.

@stephenj1118 7 жыл бұрын

Stefan Woldridge I see,but I don't have the money so I just pirate everything lol

@ali-sapra 7 жыл бұрын

Minecraft case study: How Markus Persson Sold the game for $2.5 Billion!

@VALUETAINMENT 7 жыл бұрын

+Ali Zaib awesome suggestion! Thanks Tom

@shecallsmejuvi 7 жыл бұрын

Tom always putting out quality content 💪🏽

@VALUETAINMENT 7 жыл бұрын

+Juvi Gotti - Glad to se you here again - appreciate that!!! - Thanks - Tom

@JM-hm3pj 7 жыл бұрын

3:54 Damn did they get the actual Taylor Swift for that line?

@VALUETAINMENT 7 жыл бұрын

+The Industrious - Kinda.. sorta... not really. - Thanks - Tom

@Alex632 6 жыл бұрын

😂😂😂🤣👌

@atomicowl- 7 жыл бұрын

Please do an energy drink case study like Monster or Red Bull.

@VALUETAINMENT 7 жыл бұрын

+I Dunk - We did Red Bull several months ago - it's in the library. Would love to hear what you think. - Thanks - Tom

@DarthJabba504 6 жыл бұрын

Monster would be an amazing case. I've studied it and still don't know how they executed so sell...low barriers to entry, big competitors, high margins, etc etc and they still thrived while undercutting Redbull

@geni3082 6 жыл бұрын

chrisk730 i Second this. Monster came out of nowhere and took the world by storm

@OdaSwifteye 5 жыл бұрын

The popularity of streaming music tells me that most people don't care about music but they still need a distraction from their thoughts.

@SlasherXGAMES 5 жыл бұрын

These case studies are so high quality! Good job, Tom!

@SeanDJames Жыл бұрын

Going through old playlist and forgot I had so many interesting videos.

@stephenj1118 7 жыл бұрын

Can you do a case study on the Asian market and the companies from Asia?

@stephenj1118 7 жыл бұрын

HTC was just sold to Google

@thebusinesschannel3270 7 жыл бұрын

stephen jang already did. Video game. Nintendo

@healthguy79 6 жыл бұрын

Great case study! In other words, stop leveraging on debt and start growing organically!

@strangersound 6 жыл бұрын

The future is vinyl, not streaming. Streaming is just the new radio and should be regarded as such. It seems some companies are figuring this out, but the industry as a whole is sadly way behind. Bottom line is the music business are scumbags...nothing shirt of analogous to drug dealers and pimps. Just middle men who have cornered the distribution channels. Everything that has happened to that industry is simple karma.

@Valhallian 6 жыл бұрын

This guy was the only thing watchable on this channel, he should start his own channel.

@ManuelArtigas 7 жыл бұрын

Tom, I'm from Venezuela and my mind blown when I saw your Williams shirt with PDVSA sponsorship. I got months watching this channel and never pay attention to your clothing but this got me like "wait a minute!" lol

@VALUETAINMENT 7 жыл бұрын

+artigxs - I love Formula One and I’m glad you noticed that. I get these from some team members and others I just purchase. Thanks - Tom

@freshfast6197 5 жыл бұрын

5:30 1.5B in debt and note 9:12 room switching for describing current music industry happenings

@Idiotbbnicpig 5 жыл бұрын

THank you Tom for all the knowledge, insight and energy. you always have me smiling and nodding everytime you say "I hope I let you better than I found you." Keep up the good work! I'll alwasy be your no.1 fan! showing love from HK!

@Lipi19821 6 жыл бұрын

Amazon apple are waiting for spotify to go over the waterfall...then they buy it cheap and use that whollen situation as leverage against music industry to get cheaper deals...and since artist will be selling ckose to 70%of their music via streaming they will have no choice but to sign deals for pennies on the dollar...then you will se masive gain in earnings for streaming services..

@shaqmaverick 4 жыл бұрын

Perhaps

@itsdoleey 6 жыл бұрын

I seriously love this. If I ever make it in Entrepreneurship, I "Doleey" would make references to your case studies as a useful guide that helped.

@ericgreth 6 жыл бұрын

Nice! Big fan of Nilsson Schmilsson. That song always makes things better.

@Radi0he4d1 6 жыл бұрын

2:24 Siri goes off in the background haha

@jonathanbennett9537 6 жыл бұрын

You might want to get your Casino games straight.. If you are on the blackjack table - you are hoping for Blackjack. If you are on the Craps table you do NOT want 7 on the dice with the point on ...

@clefawntravels 7 жыл бұрын

Crazy thought could Facebook jump into the mix in purchasing Spotify to compete in the music industry ?

@jahimuddin7380 7 жыл бұрын

ClEsTa TiOn they could

@VALUETAINMENT 7 жыл бұрын

+ClEsTa TiOn - that is not a crazy thought. You are now broadening your mind and thinking deeply about outcomes within the social platform! Thanks Tom &

@tusharthethunder 7 жыл бұрын

We need more case studies...great work..keep it up

@VALUETAINMENT 7 жыл бұрын

+tushar tripathi - Working on it!!! - Thanks - Tom

@jan-jans143 6 жыл бұрын

Thanks. I love pat's advice but this is the best series this channel has. A lot to learn on business strategies.

@LeonardoDeVinci1452 6 жыл бұрын

I once had Spotify ,but when crated content exclusive to Apple. I figured they did not want my money so I left and went to google play and never looked back.

@HiFisch94 7 жыл бұрын

Xiaomi would be interesting

@ruslansheikh4780 7 жыл бұрын

HiFisch94 totally agree!

@karstenlingner4560 7 жыл бұрын

Huawei too

@Alex46312 6 жыл бұрын

Definitely

@yonisali3879 6 жыл бұрын

HiFisch94 good luck tryin to get accurate numbers, origin trajectory, data and ownership from state linked companies.

@stripez7004 5 жыл бұрын

There is a lot of free spotify premium apps for people who don't want to pay for music streaming. It works just as normal compared to normal spotify . I would recommend people to download free spotify premium apps as it doesn't cost anything per month and the only down side is that you can't download it. It's ideal if you have like a lot of mobile data.

@josephs2162 7 жыл бұрын

Why did I know this channel was gonna fall apart before it did

@VALUETAINMENT 7 жыл бұрын

+Joseph Sevilla Can you elaborate with specificity and facts? Interested in your perspective, assuming there is a cogent one in there somewhere. Tom

@smileychess 6 жыл бұрын

I've used Google Play Music, Apple Music, Amazon Music, Tidal, and Spotify. Spotify has the best user experience, the best selection, the best mobile apps.

@jeffreymunroe9929 6 жыл бұрын

Amazing videos, I love the format!

@mitchell.9632 7 жыл бұрын

Thanks Tom for a the nice replies in the previous weeks. Its nice to be able to have feedback go into your case studies. This one is nice as it is more in-depth. You also had two boards that time! Yahoo was a company that used to have a streaming radio service that you could skip a few songs each hour. I know they where in business in the maybe early to mid two thousands. Several months ago you replied that you where to put the case study research notes in the description. Is that something you are still considering? Thanks for another great case study I like this topic Tom and company.

@VALUETAINMENT 7 жыл бұрын

+Mitchell Smith - Hi Mitchell. Great to see you again and, as always, we appreciate your thoughtful comments. Yes we did say that we would get the notes up and we have failed to do that - you are absolutely correct to call us out on it. - Thanks - Tom

@brentemslie509 6 жыл бұрын

Hey Biz doc, can you do a video on how you do research for these case studies?

@billygrctv6698 7 жыл бұрын

Tom never disappoints me and this is another case in which I take off my hat. As an independent musician this video helped me a lot to understand what is going on in the industry. Thanks, Tom.

@VALUETAINMENT 7 жыл бұрын

+Billy GrcTV - GLad to help Billy! - Thanks - Tom

@govindsethunath1164 6 жыл бұрын

I have learnt so much from you sir.

@AlanJWatkins 5 жыл бұрын

Thumbs up for Nilsson!

@gabrielsanchez5635 7 жыл бұрын

U certainly let me much better than you found me with your sharp and interesting approach to the theme. Thanks!

@VALUETAINMENT 7 жыл бұрын

+Gabriel Sanchez - Thank you very much, that is ours simple goal. If we help you think about something differently or you learn something, then it’s a success. Thanks - Tom

@taiwoa8781 6 жыл бұрын

This is great content. Thank you, Thomas and the team at Valuetainment

@AlWheelin 5 жыл бұрын

It is now the 1st day of 2019......Spotify is still here, I have iTunes(Apple Music) on my laptop, I rearely if never use it. I have Spotify on my Laptop, my Samsung Galaxy; Taplet, Phone and Watch. Spotify for me is very convenient. I am also subbed to Amazon Prime which includes Prime Music, and Prime Video, I haven't even tried the Prime Music because I'm happy with Spotify. Since Samsung and Spotify have partnered, I found it very user friendly. I can go to the gym, workout with music I download to my Galaxy Wearable, bluethooth to my headset, track my exercise all without bringing my phone with me. In my group of people I work with and know, including myself, 3 people have a galaxy wearable and 1 has a apple watch. Looks to me, in my little area, that Spotify wins.

@neanda 6 жыл бұрын

i love your case studies, so informative. please keep it up

@jeffersontbraga 7 жыл бұрын

You guys are doing a great job at Valuetainment. Keep up the good work!

@VALUETAINMENT 7 жыл бұрын

+popasudo - Thank you for that comment, we appreciate it. Thanks - Tom

@zekevfab 6 жыл бұрын

Thank you, your analyses are always so good to watch!

@reggiemenard2028 7 жыл бұрын

Great information. I share this with my team.

@VALUETAINMENT 7 жыл бұрын

+Reggie Menard - that’s awesome to hear. You do that! We are here every Friday with case studies so that you can share with your team and you can grow as an entrepreneur and a business person. You made my day. Thanks - Tom

@RussellFlowers 6 жыл бұрын

Those crazy blackjack dice!

@AlfoncinaMatilda 6 жыл бұрын

I don't understand, so in 2015, Spotify had 20 m paid subscribers = 20m in revenue vs 250 m in investments? How did venture capitalists expect to get their money back? Was their investment to ro be paid back in shares of the company? And if Spotify does go public wouldn't people in effect be betting on the stock price going up or down regardless of the profit the company is making?

@bonafernando 7 жыл бұрын

Very nice case study. Can you make a case study about the petrol industry? About signs of the green energy overcoming the fossil. And about all the companies that are and can be affected about this change in future 1~5~10 yeas. Like drilling, pipeline, shipping, service and supply...

@VALUETAINMENT 7 жыл бұрын

+Fernando Wolf Bona - That's a huge swath - but let me think about it. - Thanks - Tom

@vincentrichards9144 5 жыл бұрын

Following a similar hannell which I quite enjoy - fully charged to answer these questions

@abdemed7086 6 жыл бұрын

VERY INFORMATIVE COOL VIDEO THANKS.

@maxpochtar 7 жыл бұрын

Thank you, Tom! It is very useful experience!

@VALUETAINMENT 7 жыл бұрын

+Maxim Pochtar Appreciate the comment. Glad to help. Thanks - Tom

@trones9204 6 жыл бұрын

Awesome explanation. But at 10:00 it is a bit confusing. Earlier you said that Spotify had 50m paid subscribers in 2017. Now it seems you are saying that the total subscribers in the marketplace is only 30m. 50m is not .4 * 30m. I assume this June 2017 30m number represents the small players at 28% of the market. The hand movements just make it seem like that 30m number represents 100% of the streaming market

@ibarramanuel66 7 жыл бұрын

Another great job love learning about the history of business THANK YOU! !!

@VALUETAINMENT 7 жыл бұрын

+Manuel Ibarra - Great to see you again. Appreciate the comment.- Thanks - Tom

@facundoburgos1735 7 жыл бұрын

great work tom keep it up

@VALUETAINMENT 7 жыл бұрын

+facundo burgos I appreciate the comment. Thanks - Tom

@PeterVanKeer 6 жыл бұрын

Awesome episodes! Thanks for the value!

@SteveLionProducer 6 жыл бұрын

Amazing amazing amazing explanation please keep these coming!

@VALUETAINMENT 6 жыл бұрын

+Steve Lion - will do! Did you see the new one on Toys R Us? - Thanks, Tom

@antonioelias6033 6 жыл бұрын

great stuff

@welovelibraries4556 6 жыл бұрын

Wow did you get this wrong. The #1 cost is cost of customer acquisition - Spotify’s value is that they having paying customers. They are the Netflix of music streaming- you way messed this up.

@TheGrinningSkull 7 жыл бұрын

Thanks for the analyses! I put myself in the majority crowd of what you analysed and that happened only after I was bundled with my phone sim deal.

@VALUETAINMENT 6 жыл бұрын

+The Grinning Skull - Appreciate the comment there’s a lot of bundling going on the put you into a subscription situation. But when it’s over and you make your own choice would you really spend 10 bucks? Thanks - Tom

@TheGrinningSkull 6 жыл бұрын

Valuetainment you're right. It's something I haven't really asked myself. With CarPlay now installed, I'm able to enjoy Spotify a lot more than I used in addition to podcasts in the long trips

@dopemusic6414 7 жыл бұрын

Fantastic presentation thanks.

@VALUETAINMENT 7 жыл бұрын

+Stikkar appreciate it sir! - Thanks - Tom

@AntonioKowatsch 7 жыл бұрын

As an artist who has published music on Spotify I found this video very informative. Geez, first Soundcloud and now Spotify.... this is going to get ugly. I can sense it.

@VALUETAINMENT 7 жыл бұрын

+AntonioKowatsch I hope things turn out well for you but in the end there is going to be a shake out. Thank you very much for confirming that you found it informative. I hope it makes you better prepared to go to battle so that you can deliver your music and run a business as an entrepreneur at the same time. Thanks - Tom

@therustingmind1895 7 жыл бұрын

Black Jack needs 21 not 7.

@VALUETAINMENT 7 жыл бұрын

+The Rusting Mind - I am glad you caught that - I deliberately mixed "dice" and "blackjack table" to mean it's impossible to gamble that way (like the music industry is doing). - Thanks - Tom

@maxpayne438 6 жыл бұрын

Its funny how labels still not happy, why don't they try to sell cds and cassettes

@MrNelpno 7 жыл бұрын

Nice! Cheers from Brazil!

@VALUETAINMENT 7 жыл бұрын

+Nelson Pulitano - big shout out back at you in Brazil! - Thanks - Tom

@MrNelpno 7 жыл бұрын

Valuetainment thank you. We have a pasta Company www.maximassas.com.br look at It later!

@huntersmith4079 6 жыл бұрын

The F1 Shirt though Williams 2011!

@polonavarro 6 жыл бұрын

lmao the Taylor swift "Damn" and her voice.

@RemiStardust 6 жыл бұрын

9:50 "Is there anything they (Amazon) don't have their fingers in? - Answer: No! "

@oliverv94 7 жыл бұрын

Thanks biz doc

@VALUETAINMENT 6 жыл бұрын

+oliverv94 thank you Oliver! Tom

@TheBlondale 7 жыл бұрын

I love these!

@VALUETAINMENT 7 жыл бұрын

+iamBlondale Appreciate it - we love you for watching!! - Thanks - Tom

@Aqifimtiaz 7 жыл бұрын

NIce one Can you give a case study on Southwest Airlines... which is currently the most profitable airlines in US

@VALUETAINMENT 7 жыл бұрын

+Aqif Imtiaz Mukadam - That's an interesting case study idea. A couple angles are possible. - Thanks - Tom

@Aqifimtiaz 7 жыл бұрын

Thank you Sir

@chellywhit 7 жыл бұрын

hey Tom! I love your videos!

@VALUETAINMENT 7 жыл бұрын

+ChellyWhit - Appreciate that!! - Thanks - Tom

@BusyB07 7 жыл бұрын

Should the next case study be on Toy's R Us ?

@VALUETAINMENT 7 жыл бұрын

+7brandonc - I like that idea... thanks Tom

@BusyB07 6 жыл бұрын

Anytime bro, cant wait to see it

@chrisguevara 6 жыл бұрын

If your going to lose money, better to do with investor money. Not your own.

@rambow70 6 жыл бұрын

Whats with the racing team shirts?

@johnfilippone129 5 жыл бұрын

Thank you for another fantastic video. Where can I find statistics like the ones you presented about music sales across the industry? How did you compile that info?

@MysticKnotwork 7 жыл бұрын

um, the money is on the black jack table and they're hoping the dice come up seven? I think that's not how black jack works..

@VALUETAINMENT 7 жыл бұрын

+Mystic Knotwork - I did that intentionally - to mix the two of them up. See my response to the other comment. - Thanks - Tom

@jaybrown7434 6 жыл бұрын

Great Video!!Music Apps are in a strange place. Consumers want value, artists want royalties. Most Music Apps from Pandora to Spotify have yet to make a profit and if they dont partner with another company they will get swallowed by them. Tidal is artist driven but consumers seem to subscribe one month and cancel the next which doesn't net a real profit. Time will tell who wins the Music App battle.. it will be Amazon and Apple.

@simeric2 5 жыл бұрын

Read the user agreement for Spotify sometime. By joining Spotify, you agree that they may use your processor, memory and bandwidth however they please. It is not even difficult to realize it either. You agree to hand over your computer to be their slave. Don't walk, run away from Spotify's user agreement.

@RobinsM 6 жыл бұрын

Will you revisit this one since their IPO was priced at $165

@teamplayaentvideoblog3010 6 жыл бұрын

we are here

@maxwell9999999 7 жыл бұрын

great case study!! The light is a little bit weird in this one, colors are less shiny then usual

@VALUETAINMENT 7 жыл бұрын

+emil maxwell - Thanks for that feedback we noticed that after the fact. - Thanks - Tom

@abuferasabdullah 6 жыл бұрын

Don’t you think Apple & Amazon are letting Spotify to die? No buyout

@dmitriyvolsky 6 жыл бұрын

Wow I'm late. Good stuff! I'd like to see a similar analysis of Soundcloud. They are treated like gods in Berlin where they are based. But boy what a cash burning machine they are.

@shevrd9978 6 жыл бұрын

Were they forced to take that loan. Could they have negotiated a better loan perhaps with another place

@Martin-cf5lo 7 жыл бұрын

Great video

@VALUETAINMENT 7 жыл бұрын

+Jack Austen - Thanks - Tom

@jmitterii2 6 жыл бұрын

Amazon and Apple best move is just letting Spotify go bust. Then do their own streaming. Why pay a fortune when they don't need to. But as for us consumers and the artists, we need more choice. But alas most capitalism tends to do is consolidate. Unless there's trust busting. And there hasn't been any since the 80's.

@theyruinedyoutubeagain 6 жыл бұрын

Yeah, knowing how boneheaded Spotify is I can definitely see them IPO, although as a long time Spotify customer I wouldn't mind them merging with Apple Music.

@jospehjack 5 жыл бұрын

I would make the ipo now regardless of what you are losing. Reason every month without it will cost them more than any lose they have to suck up in going out. Yes probably your whole board loses its job. Yes you get a new CEO. But you purposely sell the ipo cheap. Say 3 dollars a share starting you got rid of the ticking cloak and you also make it a limited release ipo of say 2 million shares. Hope the market fix your company(A truly smart owner would keep double the shares internal.).

@antonycubillos1683 7 жыл бұрын

GREAT VIDEO.

@VALUETAINMENT 7 жыл бұрын

+Antony Cubillos - Thank you sir! Thanks Tom

@MrZerosixZeroone 7 жыл бұрын

That was my first thought when I saw the chart, that Apple should buy Spotify, but if Amazon beat them and get it first, that would be such a great move by them to go in the music industry.

@VALUETAINMENT 7 жыл бұрын

+CookieMountain - I agree with you. Great comment! Thanks Tom

@nobad6134 6 жыл бұрын

Perhaps Spotify should go vertical and start signing up the highly lucrative top 50 artists to insane exclusive streaming deals to cut down on record label costs. Record labels operate on a model of big hit artists papering over lot of the cracks of the less well off punts. Seems Spotify as only a buyer in the streaming market is paying inflated prices for the larger catalogue of less well known artists to have the most comprehensive databases. But the crown jewel artists like Rihanna, Drake, Taylor Swift, Justin Bieber etc that dominate streaming numbers are the most lucrative. Spotify can do like Netflix and start cutting down on licensing fees by paying for new exclusive music supply deals with these top content creators. Pay these artists a much higher per stream rate than Tidal which operates an exclusive equity for artists model to lure all the big fish onto Spotify exclusively for their new releases. The record labels left with the more mediocre second rate artist deals will be in a weaker position to bargain for high licensing fees, cutting down on Spotify costs long-term.

@nirnir12342 7 жыл бұрын

Please make a Rover.com case study :)

@VALUETAINMENT 7 жыл бұрын

+Nir Altman - Great idea - we will put it on the research list. - Thanks - Tom

@vincentrichards9144 5 жыл бұрын

The holy grail is for someone to come up with an unpiratable source of music distribution then the music industry will be back to full profit until then everyone will suffer one way or the other even us mobile dj's suffer in some one way even though we pirate a little bit if the time.

@oso1165 6 жыл бұрын

the point is, you've gotta be a titan to take on a titan. apple learned this the hard way before

@elishawatkins4835 7 жыл бұрын

Spotify rocks

@VALUETAINMENT 7 жыл бұрын

+Elisha Watkins - Love it as well. - Thanks - Tom

@jj-bu6yb 3 жыл бұрын

How the ipo can help to pay the debt?

@procactus9109 6 жыл бұрын

Part of the problem is most people dont care for quality, Too many people streaming absolute shit music though 1.5" bluetooth speakers. There is not enough people wanting good sounding music any more. And who can blame them, music is getting lower quality by the second. I guess streaming is the most, most music deserves these days.

@Dragoninja833 6 жыл бұрын

I disagree. People don't want crap music, they just don't have the bandwidth to stream higher quality bitrates. As internet speeds nationally and globally improve, so will the bitrates.

@MattGarcyaDC 7 жыл бұрын

yea theres always a heavy risk when making a company in the music industry

@VALUETAINMENT 7 жыл бұрын

+Matt Garcya - Yep it's a crazzzzzzzy risk! - Thanks - Tom

@PRODUCEDBYBIGGS 7 жыл бұрын

Very good video

@VALUETAINMENT 7 жыл бұрын

+Deshawn C - Appreciate the comment. - Thanks - Tom

@ssdskully 6 жыл бұрын

Spotify is awesome. I just hope I can invest at a decent price when I have the money.

@daolchang 6 жыл бұрын

just discovered this channel, subscribed, very well done, it woudl be awesome if you would do one like this Netflix, and how do you think they will do against the monstrosity that apparently is coming from Disney´s streaming service in 2019, also me and a friend always wonder how the hell do they measure the return of their investment on original content accurately

@ZiPolishHammer 6 жыл бұрын

Apple's gonna win this. Growing faster than the other companies and people are already familiar with their tech and platform.

@Dragoninja833 6 жыл бұрын

My vote is on Amazon. I currently use Spotify, but if Apple were to buy them, I would switch to Amazon. A lot of people have Amazon prime so they get the music anyways. I didn't even know they did streaming music. Amazon, for the win.

@ZiPolishHammer 6 жыл бұрын

If they wanna include streaming service in the cost of prime though cost will increase... unless they wanna eat that loss. Amazon's consolidating so many market's though it wouldn't surprise me if you're right.