Yup. I hate the drama, and made a video anyways. I used to live and breathe Minecraft speedrunning. One of the most popular videos on my channel is a Minecraft speedrun. As a channel of my size who used to speedrun a lot, I felt it was too important to stay quiet from this situation. So yes, I can hate the situation, and still feel the need to speak up.

50% of comments: dream drama Other 50%: *L E M M I N O*

Best part about this drama with dream is I'm getting some good stats lessons that I don't have to pay for

13:08 well said. Dream doseent deserve to be canceled but he DOES deserve to be called out for insulting the moderators by calling them "clout chasers" when they were just doing their job. He insulted the speedrunning community as a whole and is still not willing to acknowledge his mistakes.

I swear, analysing Minecraft math with Lemmino chiper music in the background will become a meme someday.

I think the real rng is the friends we made along the way

Antvenom: An OG Minecrafter straight out of the Runescape era. Who lasted *all the way through*. Most youtubers from that era just lost the charm and went. This guy has been with us for soooo long.

He definitely cheated, he didn’t even drink coke and eat pizza during the runs!

I respect what you said at the beginning of the video about how you want to base your view on the hard numbers and that you took time to both understand them and present them in a way others can understand. I unfortunately didn't do this. I let my hatred of cheaters and character assessment of Dream's actions lead me to emotionally conclude he cheated. I accepted and held aloft the 1/7.5 trillion number, not because I understood it, but because I had respect for the mods for going to that kind of effort. I felt embarrassed that I was guided to quick judgement, and so retracted my confident declaration of Dream cheating. Since that retraction, seeing and reading more like the video you have presented, I feel more confident that my initial conclusions were corrected. I still argue I initially held them for wrong reasons though. Great video mate.

Reading drama comment sections is like watching a fatal car crash, it’s terrible in every way imaginable but I can’t stop looking at it

I can't tell if this comment section is sarcastic or not. How do you spot fake ridiculousness in a sea of ridiculousness?

But have they ever included his gaming chair in the equation tho?

Information very well presented, everything was much easier to follow statistic wise compared to most other videos on this subject

Love the fact that Avengers had a better chance of defeating Thanos.

As a minecraft player for 10 years, I can firmly say that Dream scripts most of his videos. What is disappointing is that he denies to admit it.

Karl Jobst + AntVenom = KNOWLEDGE

"Cheaters don't cheat to get a faster time, they cheat to get a time faster" -famous speedrun guy named karl

All these languages and you chose to speak facts

For anyone who still has their doubts: This is the most generous interpretation I've seen. The voluntary inclusion of the previous streams (when he's not even being accused of cheating in those, massively oversizing the sample), the complete elimination of the last run to overcorrect for stopping bias, and the (frankly ridiculous) figure of 1000 average relevant runs per speedrunner are all extremely charitable assumptions. Due to the nature of statistics, all of these extensions undergo a compounding effect, making the final tally an unimaginably conservative number, and even then he almost certainly cheated.

I like how most of the "dream didn't cheat" people keep saying that we probably don't understand statistics well enough to make a conclusion. The hypocrisy lol

it's like an older sibling being disappointed in a younger sibling

You know it's getting out of hands when AntVenom start to talk about it.

Everyone: talking about if a green telletubbie man changed some code in a block videogame Me: only watches the videos to hear Lemmino's cipher

You know, as they say. “If you chain infinite monkeys each to a typewriter linked to a computer, one of them will eventually cheat at a minecraft speedrun”

"He spat in the face of 500 other hardworking individuals who legitimately worked for their accomplishments" The guy with a 6-hour run: haha yes

This comment is on basically every drama video, but I wouldn’t recommend turning newest comments first on

And this is why Stal is the best music disc in Minecraft

Hi people sorting by newest. The newest comments I see don't look that bad, most people agree with the video or they're just discussing things. Have a nice day.

the best thing to come out of this drama is that more people were introduced to lemmino :)

Minecraft is a game for: - kids - teens - adults - boys - girls - astrophysicists

I am starting to regret pressing the newest first button...

Karl Jobst: *Ran simulations* AntVenom: *Much more in depth calculation* Mathemaniac: *Pointing out dream's document problems* Dream: "well i didn't cheat tho, that's my proof"

Everybody gangsta until antvenom is 100% serious

It won’t matter in the end anyways, MoistCritikal just started speed running Minecraft like he just speedrun Mr Krabs Overdoses on Ketamine three weeks ago

The Five Stages of Dream Fan Grief: 1. *Denial* "Why would Dream cheat? He's so good he has no reason to cheat!" 2. *Anger* "You are all clout chasers jealous of Dream's skill!" 3. *Bargaining* "It may be tiny, but it's still feasible, thus Dream is not cheating." 4. *Depression* "But if Dream cheated, I shouldn't watch him anymore and that's bad!" 5. *Acceptance* "Dream cheated, but I can still enjoy his content."

You honestly sound the most calm out of everyone. It's much more understandable when you explain it, instead of those other people getting frustrated while talking.

Antvenom: I leave you guessing at what my opinion is Also Antvenom 10 seconds later: *gives his opinion*

I expected this video to be Ant Venom saying why he doesn't like the drama, not a video completely destroying Dream with the math.

Bro I regret pressing the "Newest first" button

Damn, antvenom still uploads? I used to be a sub, in another lifetime. Back in 2013 I unfollowed all my minecraft youtubers when I hit high school. Glad to see you're still kicking, I think I'll be returning that sub now

I love how lemmino's cipher is now an iconic "myth-busting" song.

Everyone do be using LEMMINOs Cipher doe, its a good song choice ngl. Edit: Didn't thought i'd get this many likes lol, thx anyway.

Imagine disliking a video based on pure statistics because it insults your personal view of your Minecraft youtuber idol.

2^48. That's around 2.8147 * 10^14 or 281470000000000. With this number updating 100,000 time per second for piglin trades it would take 781861.1111 hours for the ring value to rollover. For the blazes, which update roughly 25 times per tic. It would take 3127444444.4 hours to rollover. That's 35799.5 YEARS. That's almost double the time it has been science the last great ice age.

Meanwhile Lemmino just got his 3rd request to use his soundtrack he intended for a video about cicada 3301

"That's like, a 1 in 3 chance at that point" - Dunkey

your opinion is more valid than most opinion ever made by anyone on this situation

To whoever says "i got 5 pearl trades in a row", yes, that happens. If you flip a coín 5 times, you have a small, but very real chance of getting all tails. If you flip a coin 6 times, your chance of getting all 6 tails is HALVED compared to the chance of you getting 5. Lets say you flipped your coin 100 times and got 75 tails. That is even more ridiculous, isn't it? Now imagine you had this EXACT SAME kind of luck on multiple streams. Doesn't it sound suspicious? Now imagine you had other streams where your luck was completely normal. Isn't that even more suspicious?

really needed a large creator to talk about this since the " hes only biased against dream for attention! " cant be used. Not saying you're biased against or for dream, just pointing that out

Minecraft speedrunning has reached American politics level

I'm surprised this video never gained as much attention as the others. It's nice and quiet here though, I like that

Dreams popularity is undeserved.

AntVenom: I hate this speedrun drama Lemmino: I love this speedrun drama

Lol plot twist... antvenom is the anonymous Harvard professor

Dream cheated

Damn, if AntVenom says you cheated, then you’re in fuckin trouble

the “dream speedrun cheating” videos have a theme song now...

I've watched Minecraft KZfaq on and off for nine years now, and of all the video makers I've come across, I consider you (and PeteZahHutt) to be the most genuine people with the most integrity and the best of intentions. This video was very well put together and clearly comes not from a desire to put anyone down or gain clout, but from a genuine concern for the integrity of something you care about, and I appreciate that a lot.

Even though I understood the math from the geosquare and dream video. This video was presented in a less sloppy fashion that makes it easier for other people to understand. Great vid ant

1) dream was directly at crime scene, only one that can manipulate RNG 2) motive to be seen as good Minecraft player is definitely there, literally his entire fame is based on his minecraft skills 3) one other obvious motive is that he is a speedrunner (duh). They literally spend hours upon hours trying to get a good time 4) he complained directly about the EXACT 2 items - pearls and blaze rods for this version of minecraft. Literally not a single other item in the run had above average drop rate. 5) sample size is huge - 300+ kills and 240 trades. All maintained 70% drop rate and 16% barter rate for 24 hours straight, not a single drop in rate for 24 hours 6) many lies about mod team slandering him (even though all objective facts and video was demonetized). Billy Mitchell level attacks. 6) there are 80k viewers on twitch when he streams speedrunning, that's ALOT OF MONEY, even potentially higher than any single yt video for 24 hours of streams 7) says run is 16th place or even 5th place. Big lie, run was 4th place and on pace for WR by over a minute (simply missed one single pearl) 8) debunked paper with fake math and stats Liar check Crime scene check Motive check 1 in 20 sextillion chance check Literally Epstein has less proof than this lmao But please, go and Stan and say nO prOoF. After all, it is your choice to reject reality.

The only speedrun that matters is Mr Krabs overdoses on ketamine

Remember when Minecraft was a peaceful game where u would watch PopularMMOs DanTDM and be scared of Herobrine

dream is horrendously bad at responding to controversy can we all agree on that at least

the cheating is so annoying, but as someone who used to be a fan, you know what pisses me off most? he lied to and manipulated his ENTIRE fanbase. he wouldn’t have lied if he didn’t think he’d get away with it. he knew he could play the victim and his young impressionable audience would believe him. he used his fanbase as stepping stones for his own personal gain. he should stop defending his fans if all he does is lie to them and play the victim. i wish this was all fabricated and i wish he was innocent but i know is not. i’m just disappointed

so...an old speed runner re-awakens to try and set things straight in the community. your the best antvenom.

Everyone is talking about higher than average odds, but I call for an investigation of my below average odds :(

You are probably looking for people raging by looking at newest comments eh?

We all knew he cheated. Nobody cares if his challenges are fake because it’s just entertainment but when he tried to steal something from many hard working people that was the line.

I love facts

he didn't cheat. the piglins were just dream stans.

I think I should give my opinion on this subject. I should start off by saying, I have a lot of respect for Dream as a creator. This does create a bias, but my opinion in the end still doesn’t favor him. Whether he cheated or not, he genuinely cares for his fans, friends, and family. I know this makes me sound like a Stan, I’m not. I don’t even particularly like his Manhunts, they are way too repetitive for me. My respect comes from what I’ve seen from other creators. He purposefully doesn’t stream the SMP so other creators can grow. I’ve seen him donate thousands to his friends during streams (Benex, Hannah rose, Antfrost, Ranboo) telling them what they mean to him. I also once watched an HBomb livestream where he was talking about how he spent his money, and how most of it goes to his family. He had also repeatedly supported his “stans”. I respect him for all of that. But now comes my opinion. He cheated. Of course it’s never going to be 100% sure he did, but the numbers have never been with him. One of the first things you learn in any statistics classes is that they can prove ANY point. Statistics can go on and on adding in more and more questionable variables to help you. With Dreams obviously biased PhD response, not only did the math become immediately debunked, it only got the chances down to 1 in 100 million. His own biased mathematician couldn’t get it lower than that. And while math should be the primary evidence, context helps. Dream complained for months on streams, Twitter, and more about how 1.16 speedruns were just luck based. It all depended on better perfect luck, because of more RNG mechanics involved such as piglins and rarer fortresses. Not only that, his 5 extra 1.16 speedruns that were neglected in mods response were left out because they happened WAY before the ones with the high numbers. So why would speedruns and live-streams not associated with the group of 6 be included in the math? Once again, it will never be 100% confirmed if Dream cheated or not, but chances are that he did. Hate still should not go to any side.

Could you do a video covering the probability of success in the fastest speedrun? I'm actually really curious to see what the numbers are. We don't really have anything to compare Dream's numbers to, and I think it would add a lot of context. ( I know Dream cheated, but also think a video on other speedruns' likelihoods would be interesting )

My favourite part of this whole drama is that more people are using the banger of a track cipher is.

You know you fucked up when AntVenom himself is mad and disappointed

guys, don't be angry at dream. He's not the type of guy to cheat. Is what I would have said, if I didn't think he cheated

Browsing the newest comment section makes you wish for a nuclear winter.

Facts don’t care about your feelings

As someone with a statistical background myself, and a large interest in this issue. These are by far the most Dream favored numbers while still being realistic. For people watching this video, these numbers are basically as skewed to dream as they could be reasonably and his runs still comes to be this unlikely. I think that some people love telling parables of how unlikely numbers like this are, but honestly just weigh the probability in your head. How likely do you think it is that Dream could have cheated? 1 in a hundred, maybe 1 in a thousand, or even in a or 1 in a million? If you chose any of these it is much more likely Dream cheated than not.

Bro I haven’t watched you in like 2 years and your channel is popping off! Congrats bro!

Why yes, I disagree with the video, the numbers, the facts and logic because I want to defend Dream by saying he did not cheat while providing little to no evidence. Math is dumb, Dream is right. Of course he is.

Once Karl and Ant come to get you, there is no point in running, just lay there and wait for the wolves to catch you

Solid video

AntVenom: 0:40 Also AntVenom: So that's why Eintein's theory of relativity is equal to 8 bit numbers combined into hash algorithms that then generate a random number corresponding to all life on the universe which then causes the world to tick only 8 times a second which will result into the 80 bit numbers of the hash algorithm to collapse and after the hash algorithm has collapsed the world will tick only 8 to the power of pi / 2 times a second which will then change the rng algorithm into 12 bit encrypted integers that will only change the RNG value of the blazes every 9 to 12 power of the circumference of the circle times to the amount of ticks per second. And that will result into the original 8 bit hashed numbers to change to 12 bit numbers which will then un collapse the originally collapsed hash algorithm resulting the world to change into the normal tick rate but because the blaze RNG is still corrupted it will result into the game thinking that the tick rate is 23 to the power of 9 which will cause the tick rate to go twice as low as it were which will then result into the blaze RNG generation only happening every 12 game ticks which will generate a random integer between the 8 bit hash algorithm and the 12 bit hash algorithm which will then cause the world tick speed to go above the integer limit which will then result into an exception catched by an empty catch block and that will result into the piglin RNG to go 3 times as high as normal. But that corruption will be changed after 2 rotations of the RNG generator which is about 0.0002 seconds and when the RNG will be reset back to normal the original 8 bit hash algorithm will rise once again. But as the original 8 bit algorithm is rising it will create a temporary copy of itself which due to the exception is never deleted like it should be which will then result into 2 identical 8 bit hash algorithms at the same time and the game will be confused of which to use and that will result into the piglin hp respawn rate to change to only 8/2 of its original value which will result into the world tick RNG generator to loop only every second which will then confirm Einstein's theory of relativity.

To put the odds of 1 in nearly 7 million into perspective, consider the following: On November 30th, 1954, Ann Elizabeth Fowler Hodges was asleep on her couch in Oak Grove, Alabama, when she became a significant note in astronomical history. A grapefruit sized stone struck her as she slept, causing bruising and minor injuries but proved to be non-fatal. The spherical stone was later determined to be a meteorite, which it is believed crashed through the roof of her farmhouse, bounced off a radio and struck her. This makes her the only confirmed person to have been directly injured as a result of a meteorite strike in all of human history. The stone which struck her was believed to be a fragment that broke off of a larger asteroid, 1685 Toro, a four-kilometer asteroid careening in an orbit through our solar system which sees it orbit the sun once every 587 years. This asteroid likely broke away from the asteroid belt, which formed very soon after the solar system did, making it over 4 billion years old. The odds that were stacked against that asteroid hitting and bruising Ann Hodges? Somewhere between 1 and 250,000 to 1 and 1,600,000. You are more likely to get a welt from a piece of space debris breaking off of an object that would have likely only ever been in the exact position to do so three or four times in the course of the history of all recorded human civilization than you are to get the exact results Dream has claimed he got through luck alone.

I think the saddest part is that he's very entertaining and very skilled at the game. A good quote for this situation is from Karl Jobst. "Players don't cheat to get a better time. They cheat to get a better time faster". He was fully capable of getting his time but he didn't have the patience which is sorta understandable considering how impossibly unlikely it is to get the drops required.

I know this is not related to this video but today is the last day of Adobe flash games.

i bet your scrolling to see dream stans

It was all done and dusted when a computer ran a simulation trillions of times to see if it could achieve Dream's luck and it wasn't achieved a single time. Dream should just admit that he cheated, but at this point he made his response video which is fans ate up and now he's just gonna try sweep this under the rug.

Once antvenom rolls out the big numbers, you know he's really dedicated in proving something

*Initial allegations come out of Dream cheating* Everyone: "He cheated!" *Dream responds* Everyone: "Never mind, he didn't cheat." *r/statistics proves that both of them were wrong and Dream still cheated* Everyone: "He cheated!" *Commentary channels and people that collab with Dream say he didn't cheat* Everyone: "Never mind, he didn't cheat." *Antvenom literally just states what the facts are again* Everyone: "He cheated! Edit: Oh hey, I started a war in the comments section!

The chances of a Stan not being a 10 year old are 1 in 7.5 trillion

There are 4 types of people in this arguement... Dream stans: the people who think dream is just lucky, or the math is wrong. These people will not look even once at the opposing argument, and have full faith in dream. Dream haters: the people who dont really care about the math, and just come the the conclusion dream cheated because they hate him. The logical person: Some people will look at both sides of the arguement before coming to a logical conclusion. Antvenom belongs in this category. Me: The biggest brain who knows that Dream didnt cheat, but just liked one of those videos which say “like this video in under 5 seconds for 20 years of amazing luck.”

Ant having his revenge on dream getting the glow squid into the game

imo too, there are stans out there saying “It’s just for entertainment, its okay to cheat” but the thing is this is an official speedrun saying that is like spitting on the faces of the other legit speedrunners who worked hard just to get to the leaderboards

I wish we could go back to when stall was the biggest Minecraft drama

guys just chill please he just has a good gaming chair

Ant: *is throwing all kinds of numbers everywhere* Me: I like his voice

The Lemmino music is such a meme in this community now. I love it.

Finally someone who credits lemmino for his work!