I Tested MACD Trading Strategy over 999 Times using Multicharts

Рет қаралды 6,685

Күн бұрын

In this video I show you realistic test results of an MACD Trading Strategy with well over 999 trades. You must watch this video before risking real money using this strategy!
A viewer of mine recently asked me if I could run a back test using Multicharts to test a popular MACD trading strategy to see if it really works in the long term.
Watch this video to get some realistic results.
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WEBSITE: www.thetransparenttrader.com/
EMAIL ME: jarrod@thetransparenttrader.com
DISCLAIMER:
I am not a financial advisor and I am not offering you financial advice. I am not regulated in any way. The purpose of the content I provide is for educational purposes only.
Any information you receive is based on my own knowledge and experience in the financial markets and how you act on the information provided is your own responsibility.
I cannot be held responsible for any losses you may incur as a result of ideas taken from my content provided.

Пікірлер: 52

@Samuel_eldavis 3 жыл бұрын

Hey Jarrod, would really love to see more strategies on the daily chart!! I just haven’t got the time to trade intraday strategies due to my full time job. But maybe you could publish more higher TF- type of strategies if you get the chance to? That’d be amazing! Best regards, Stefan👍🏼

@TheTransparentTrader 3 жыл бұрын

Ok, I'll make some videos about daily chart strategies

@EpicSheepReloaded 3 жыл бұрын

i did the same. i still don't get it how they think testing 100times gives an accurate result...

@kriordan25 3 жыл бұрын

I have been building EAs and testing many strategies from UTube with the same results as you My testing always includes trading costs - no point in testing without those - just dreaming Thanks for confirming my thoughts

@theanalystkr3255 3 жыл бұрын

Always fantastic. Great work Jarrod.

@renejrgensen9865 3 жыл бұрын

Finally someone adress (and proof) these obvious problems about testing manually.

@helturus 3 жыл бұрын

Thanks. We can find that MACD/200EMA strategy on a lot of trading Websites but nobody cares giving how profitable it is or not. Your work is very valuable and everybody should apply your kind of analysis to the strategies they think will give an edge.

@TheTransparentTrader 3 жыл бұрын

Thanks!

@tomtownsend4210 3 жыл бұрын

I really appreciate you running this test. I myself have tried to duplicate a version of this MACD strategy I see all over youtube that is similar, only difference on the one I keep seeing is that the stop is "just below" the recent swing, which I set as 3 ticks in my tests, and with the same 1.5R. Like you, I am also unable to reproduce these "test" results, despite trying different instruments and timeframes, albeit on futures. I am able to show modest returns on a few timeframe/instrument combos, but no better. I have discarded this strategy for now as not strong enough, but I keep wondering why so many people seem to be using it. So I was reassured to see your results look similar to mine.

@TheTransparentTrader 3 жыл бұрын

Maybe all the people who are using it are not making money with it?!!

@lifeadventurer8 3 жыл бұрын

@@TheTransparentTrader That'd be my guess. ;) Or people don't track their actual long-term net P&L, and only selectively remember the times it worked.

@tomtownsend4210 3 жыл бұрын

@@TheTransparentTrader Yes, it could be that people are indeed using it as it seems but they are not making consistent returns and they haven't realized yet it's the strategy itself rather than the trader. Or maybe some of folks like the testers we've seen are in a short term winning run, as you showed it does work for certain periods of time but fails overall.

@laithqsous1354 3 жыл бұрын

very professional and truth revealing :)

@lifeadventurer8 3 жыл бұрын

Thanks for sharing all these videos. I recently got MultiCharts.NET and am learning my way around. Learning C# at the same time to code my algorithms. This is challenging (because it's new), but I'm having fun!! :) It's fun backtesting different strategy ideas and seeing how they perform. Adding costs (commissions, fees, slippage) REALLY makes a difference, especially if the strategy makes a lot of trades. I'm learning so much from your channel. Thank you for sharing these videos. Please keep them coming! :)

@TheTransparentTrader 3 жыл бұрын

I haven't used MC.net but I assume it's just as capable as using the MC I use. Glad you are liking the videos.

@lifeadventurer8 3 жыл бұрын

@@TheTransparentTrader As far as I know, the only real difference is if MultiCharts uses PowerLanguage or C#/VB for coding strategies. I believe everything else is the same between the regular and .NET version. Perhaps someone will correct me if I'm wrong.

@tamaracastleicawfitness313 3 жыл бұрын

Great video Jarrod 🙌

@TheTransparentTrader 3 жыл бұрын

Thanks Tamara!

@Louis-yg3xq 3 жыл бұрын

Amazing food for thought...

@nikinikster4123 3 жыл бұрын

Do you talk about that guy from "Trading Rush"?

@RaulGonzalezG 2 жыл бұрын

Hello Jarrod, I found interesting how consistently loser is the equity curve shown at 8:59 min. aprox. Therefore, I was wondering if you would consider take the opposite trade as a strategy. Also I'd like to ask you if multicharts allows to perform backtest strategies searching for the setups in defined universes or lists (e.g. macd crossovers in S&P 500 stocks, macd crossovers in NYSE stocks) or the backtests are only in one market/instrument at a time. Thanks for sharing great content. Kind regards, Raul

@OneCreator87 2 жыл бұрын

It was losing because of the trading costs (slippage), Therefore, Ii you reverse the entry and exit logic you will still get a losing strategy.

@alexsmith9221 3 жыл бұрын

Great upload! Interesting to see how much trading costs can affect an individual strategy. Could you make another video about Williams %R in the future? Maybe with improvements such as a moving average 200 like in this video. Would love that! cheers

@wowfactor5000 3 жыл бұрын

Where can I find the written rules to the Williams %R strategy?

@TheTransparentTrader 3 жыл бұрын

Sure, I'll show you some work work on my strategies which use Williams % R

@TheTransparentTrader 3 жыл бұрын

@@wowfactor5000 I haven't actually documented the rules for that one yet..

@antoniomachado8782 3 жыл бұрын

Thanks for sharing, Jarrod. Just one question, please: between 2.53' and 2.59' we can see that long trade hitting the profit target. However, between the Entry point and the Exit point on the graph, there have been many other candles above (the Exit point)... So, if it was a Buy order, should't the trade have been closed as soon as price has hit the value of the Take Profit (which happened around 13:00 on the first up leg right after the Entry point)? Thank you!

@maximosh 3 жыл бұрын

The dynamic ATR appears to have decreased during that trade, which explains why the exit happened later, when the range contracted.

@antoniomachado8782 3 жыл бұрын

@@maximosh Ok, I didn't know the TP and SL were dynamic, I thought they were fixed values in pips (according to the ATR) set since the beginning of the trade. By the way, do you think having this kind of dynamic ("moving") TP and SL is better than a value set since the beginning of the trade? Does it have meaningful advantages, according to your experience?

@maximosh 3 жыл бұрын

@@antoniomachado8782 I generally see the TP and SL fixed from the start of trades even when based on ATR. Don't know of any advantage the other way.

@kerryriordan8662 3 жыл бұрын

@@maximosh wasn't aware that there was such a thing as dynamic atr That would mean that you could not manage your risk as the atr could dramatically increase during the trade ??

@maximosh 3 жыл бұрын

@@kerryriordan8662 If the Average Range gets larger the Average True Range will only vary a fraction since it's based on the average size of many bars.

@andydunfield8862 3 жыл бұрын

Normally your videos are excellent I especially like the negative correlation issue with usdjpy Vs USD CHF I hadn't thought of that!! I feel however There is a slight flaw with your testing here You seem to be using a stoploss of 1% of $10000= $100 but on a whole contract and a this makes a very small trade - 10pip stoploss and 15pip tp if you add in spread this is going to make a loss very often and is difficult to be profitable without a very large edge. The advantage of trading Forex cfd is flexibility in amount of lot fractions Maybe he could have had a much larger SL and TP if he's only trading 0.1 or 0.01 lots still risking only 1% ($100) You can't really compare without knowing his SL and TP distance in pips Normally you vary stoploss amounts in pips but you haven't done this here I'm not sure why Still I agree it's probably not a great strategy but feel you are starting to fit what you show to show a point which you haven't done before.

@kiemtien89chanel64 Жыл бұрын

Trading Rush use recent swing H/L to set SL. You use 2 time ATR to set SL. Result can not be the same.

@renzcarillo7277 3 жыл бұрын

I have created the same exact algorithm in mt5/mt4 and our results does not differ from each other.

@static9061 2 жыл бұрын

I just sent you my indicator i put together.

@B1k3R1d3r 3 жыл бұрын

I'm a completely trading dummy and tried to do those tests on my own with pine script in TradingView. So what I got as results is the following: This strategy seems not working on any forex pair. But it seems to be working perfectly on e.g. Platinum, Palladium, US100 and also some Stocks like NFLX, PGHN, etc. On other stocks the strategy is completely lost. I try to understand why and don't get to a logic result. Can you help me there? And thank you for your open and honest videos - I so far found nothing better out there! :-) Best regards, Patrick

@TheTransparentTrader 3 жыл бұрын

HI Patrick, only some markets will respond well to this type of strategy. Did it work similar to my results?

@B1k3R1d3r 3 жыл бұрын

@@TheTransparentTrader Yes, it worked similar - and I also tried different TP/SL strategies. The best one (I tried) was with 5% SL and 5%TP - there I got positive response rates up to over 90 % (eg. Netflix). Others work better with a SAR entry and Exit: Eg. ILMN with 71 % - still very good. For CTAS I found 10% and 5% gives over 80% positive response. But as said: I cannot find the patterns there... (US30 hat 75%, US100 85% and OIL 78% - all very good). Keep up your excellent work! I really enjoy your videos! Regards, Patrick

@jan7356 3 жыл бұрын

Thanks! Great insights as always. This confirms what Jeff Swanson did recently. I have a question for you: As you said, there are periods where the strategy worked. My question is: Do you think this that in those stretches of time it just random wiggles, or do you think market structure changed there (which would imply that one could potentially add a filter and trade that strategy only during those periods)? How would you tell the difference?

@TheTransparentTrader 3 жыл бұрын

That's a good point. I can't really answer for sure. Possibly random periods where it just worked for one reason or another. I find that trying to identify and only trade in those periods is quite difficult. I would much rather spend time on a strategy which shows consistent behaviour over a 10 year period etc..

@zettkusanagi6322 2 жыл бұрын

I was actually optimistic about the 100 MACD trading results, and are currently testing that myself. I also appreciate your contribution and significantly larger scope of testing. Your testing methodology certainly grounds any hype about any strategy ever presented. I think the most important takeway from this video is when you said "its not that easy." I am all about learning to be come a better trader, making money is a good incentive, yet I am more interested in an overall successful trading career. The key word is "strategy." Can you give us more insights into how to develop a sound strategy? You have found important weaknesses in these strategies, and I am sure you would find more on others if you keep analyzing more of them. However, what steps do you give someone who is genuinely interested in developing a sound strategy.

@TheTransparentTrader 2 жыл бұрын

Have a look through my videos. You'll find some insights into how I go about developing a strategy from scratch. Thanks for your comments!

@zettkusanagi6322 2 жыл бұрын

@@TheTransparentTrader I appreciate it. I am now looking through all your content and its expanding my education considerably. Im honestly thinking about joining the squad.

@navketan1965 Жыл бұрын

Trend on 4H chart is the best trend guide for majority of forex traders( if one keeps trades for 2-5 days. By the time trader realizes that trend on daily chart is up, market has already gone up about 3-5 days & if you ask supercomputer for the mathematical odds, computer tells you that odds are negative right from the start. Another reason is that trend on 1H chart can flip on A dime & your money is gone.Trend based on the last 5-10,four hourly candles has enough players behind it so that it would not flip on A dime, so trader has decent chance to make something without buying overpriced merchandise. Entry is on 15 minute price action.Sir , I Seek your wisdom?

@vitoturi 3 жыл бұрын

The dislike is from the "Trading Rush" :D

@dietkebab 3 жыл бұрын

Jarrod, your test is thorough and commendable but it is NOT the same test as one carried out on Trading Rush's channel. For example, your test is automated, the test on the Trading Rush was not. Difference? For example, the Trading Rush test would not take a trade if the 200 EMA line was viewed to be flat and/or if the price has moved significantly before the MACD and Signal line crossover etc... I suspect you did not factor this into your automated test. Furthermore, the test may have been carried out with actual price request from a broker like IG or CMC hence trading costs would have been built into it. I think I am still on the fence with this strategy, it may or may not make money but your test has not convinced me either.

@kerryriordan8662 3 жыл бұрын

Trading Rush does not include trading costs

@vitoturi 3 жыл бұрын

Would really appreciate to see a new youtube video format called "Trading Garbage" where someone seriously backtest all these no-sense clickbait strategies to really show how bad they are in the long term.

@DWA86 3 жыл бұрын

I cant found Trading Garbage in KZfaq, can you share the link of that channel?

@demyanrudenko 2 жыл бұрын

"We're ignoring the histogram, and looking when the lines cross" When lines cross histogram crosses 0, which is a lot easier to spot when histogram is set up properly and not with thin lines. 2:59 profit target was hit in the next couple of candles, wtf are you on about Although smashing a 'simple' strategy and showing with proof that it's not as winning as it was presented by somebody is a good thing to show in a video like this