AlphaTosis

I should begin AI-tossis

this is indeed a wonderful moment in the Artosis beta.

what about the mirror matchups?

To be fair, the mapmakers have to be included in that gratitude. BW is insanely unbalanced without proper maps keeping the balance in check..

Is it? If the win rates were not balanced, then everyone would just play the strong race.

@@solstice871 agreed

Statements uttered by the mentally deranged

Reddit is filled with this. Thanks for realizing.

Reddit is a place where people go to be wrong.

Reddit has gotten worse lately too since the api changes. I saw a thread on the front page about that poorly written math problem, you know the '2÷2(3+1)' stupid one that's designed to be ambiguous? And everyone was just arguing about it like it was 2010 facebook! Back in my day reddit used to know that was a trick! No longer. It's functionally indistinguishable from 9gag now

@@andrewferguson6901 It's never been perfect, I always thought it had a very good niche in smaller communities where genuine discussions and information sharing could take place (I've primarily used it for my industry, which is small, and a few smaller gaming communities). But the API changes wrecked whatever modding that was left, disinformation and botting is getting absurd, and the BW/SC subreddit is genuinely one of the most retarded groups I've ever seen in my life. Obviously every social media has it's problems, but whatever quality reddit has is gone.

lol your "strongest piece of evidence" is a stats drawn from 94 games on Eclipse, of which only... 25 are TvP. Meanwhile, eloboard - the Korean site recording modern pro BW games - has 1500 TvP and 1300 TvZ games on Eclipse, of which Terran won 50.3 and 52.5%. This analysis got many points wrong and Artosis just focus on those points to fool you guys.

He glanced over that one real quick

He caste dark swarm and jumped into a Nydus on that one.

It’s with flash tho

yeah but that but that 53.3 was with flash

The happiest since he got to be 2400

Why are you here watching him. He's a globalist shill. You need to boycott him. They made it loud n clear which side thry are on. Just absolutely trash

at this point I don't even know which one is a persona - this or The Normal Calm Caster Artosis.

​@@trezenxcalm artosis just shows up when casting

😂

Rain is on another level, best PvP by far

people should study it. He plays safe, never gambles, pre-build cannons vs drops and invis dudes.. he doesn´t care if he is scouted or not. I think he traps them to a big mid brawl where he outskills them.

@@chrisv384 I agree, stylistically he's like the complete opposite of Mini. Rather than relying on imperfect information he relies purely on positional play, mechanics, and smart engagements. A bit like Best but smarter. I really wish he would come back to ASL as Protoss right now lacks a solid and consistent player.

can't make defilers with no gas late game zerg starts losing geysers 😂

FIREBATS UNBEATABLE, STRONGEST UNIT

Its so gratifying to see our lord and savior educate us while owning us

At least this time...

Game is not well balanced. It's just really hard to play, hard to master, impossible to play perfectly. So people just lose to the game mechanics pretty often, and it's not dependent on a race.

@@Askhat08 That's the dumbest thing I've ever heard. They balance it for human players.

CROSS SPAWNS BAD FOR TERRAN?! WHO SAID THAT?! 😂😂😂

Someone could play the game and still be wrong 😂

That rotational balance is why 3 is a pretty ideal number of races for an RTS. Get to 4, and what happens if a race has 2 good or bad match ups?

😂😂and you cant blame the matchup. Its all about player skill and matchup understanding... so people who cry all the time end up stuck in 2k!😅😅😅

​@@Zraknulyou get stuff like Orc vs Undead in wc3/tft

Larva: Aside from Flash and Last I feel like I can beat any Terran player. It's something about those players, not about race as a whole.

Only if you ignore that Flash stands out, son.

​@@Lykykstfu we had a TvT asl15 finals, flash is not responsible for Terran winrate

​@@Lykyk Hilarious to see the cope when the strongest player in the games history plays Terran, but it's not because Terran is strong! It's because he's just so special! Flash, Boxer, Nada, iloveoov, Light, Fantasy, all just overcoming the odds with the weakest race!

@@user-sk6nm1wr2j You're basically just typed out the Terrans are the best at the top argument.

What about that one season of ASL where they rigged it against Flash and made the maps super imba. I know the author removed flash from the statistic analysis to be fair but if flash couldn't win, other terrans probably had like a 10% winrate that season. So that would kinda skews the data a little bit.

Apm is always zerg>terran>toss both bw and sc2. Zerg make unit though larva. It increases carzy amount of apm both games, toss have longest making time. So yeah always top 10 apm player was zerg even flash is not close when he was prime

+ highest apm terran player was ty when he was 10 yo kid 😂 He could be one of best bw terran if league live longer

​@@kya6816And more units = more apm required But there is also diff apm required for diff unit comps, zvz muta ling vs zvt ultra ling, zvz much more apm intensive

excellent point

That's not his point. People frequently say that while Protoss may have an advantage over Terran at lower skill levels, Terran ends up better at ASL levels. But these stats show even that isn't true, and when you exclude flash it's even more true. Additionally, he never claimed Terran wasn't favored over zerg.

@@abstractdaddy1384 But these stats are flawed. There are only over 400 TvP games at ASL which were played on like 40 different maps. Flip the results of 20 games and you have a totally different story. And guess what? There were seasons when they brought out very bad maps for Terran (ASL5, KSL3) that even Light decided to quit playing Terran for a while, and those are the game responsible for the 53% Protoss win rate in PvT. Go see the stats analyzed from 8 million replays with mmr analysis added, which Artosis totally ignored because of course, it doesn't go with his agenda.

Thats a bug and its illegal.

Makes sense

Zerglings attack faster

I mean, yes, that's a good point but on another hand you see that for those games that go into late game, just like it was said in the video, it's pretty much ambigous on who gets the advantage in the matchup because of that build - and in the early game you get to see who dies more due to performing nexus, cc or hatch first, and then by reverse engineering the stats seen you can see who gets better advanatge out of getting away with that build more

The winrate for Terran in TvP on 4 players maps with adjacent spawns is 57-43 (+14). With cross spawns, it's 46.5-53.5 (-7). (2x57 + 1x46.5) / 3 = 53.5, very close to 53.33.

Cant exactly remember who maybe firebathero, he explained that it's weird when the tank's range is diagonal.

Because the Protoss can't go cross spawn Nexus first - they're close enough to actually get punished

We don't know exactly because they also stripped the top P and top Z, and then it was still +2.36%. My guess is it would be about +2.5%. Also Flash was not stripped from any of the individual categories, the author weirdly forgets about it after opening paragraph

@@SolarPlayer yeah I just included it for fun because I had noticed Artosis mentioning this a couple of times. I don't think it's really relevant because Flash is, after all, just another player, even if he happens to be the best one.

Yes - or 2,36pp. The other top players' results only affected the winrate of their own race in this calculation. Actually I just checked what happens if you only remove Flash and it turns out he's also bringing up the Zerg winrate by 0,05pp 😂

@@JackyVSO Oh are you the actual author? props to you for good work Flash is not at all just another player - he's an extreme outlier that warps the result of the questions you're trying to answer. It's totally fine and useful to have his TvT data in, or to have all his data in when you're trying to answer questions like "Is cross spawn better or close spawn?", but as soon as you're comparing races and matchups it's very dubious. It would be like leaving artosis in your dataset in an analysis of all C rank players, and then comcluding that terran is fine because of that. He actually would beat C rankers also with protoss, so the terran data you collect from him is worse than useless

@@SolarPlayer Thanks, glad you enjoyed it! I think it would be difficult to start setting up objective criteria for which players should count in the stats and which shouldn't count because they're too good (or too bad). At least I don't feel that kind of speculation is mine to make; but I guess that's why we have forums like this for discussion.

Yes

It's more that he's so good he skews the statistics if anything he counts too much kind of like serral in current sc2

flash could also play off races at a top level because of his understanding of the game, flash is an anomaly

It still kinda is, once defilers are out

Hey, I'm the guy that made these stats. Let me clarify those particular graphs: The way it's done is the data was divided into 10 intervals with the length of the intervals designed so that each interval would represent the same amount of games. So on each of the graphs, you can see a bunch of dots, placed right in the middle of their respective interval, which represent the actual data points, each being the average winrate of all games in the matchup that ended within that interval. The curve is then simply extrapolated from those. So each of the vertices on the graphs is based on the same amount of data (give or take a few games). This means that any fluctuations there might be in the super late game are not recorded because they are averaged out as part of the rightmost interval. I could have included data for each minute separately but then some minutes would have very few games or none at all, which would have caused a lot of random spikes on the graphs that I think would have been more confusing than helpful.

@@JackyVSO Thanks for the response. One thing you could do for this would be to use a spline to generate a local moving average, that would create the cleanest and most consistent graph that requires the least amount of decisionmaking on your part. I would also love to see measures of significance here. Confidence bands on the plots, and report estimated ranges rather than just the number.

@@michaellopate4969 I agree that would be the most correct way of presenting the data - and absolutely required if it was a scientific publication. The only reason I haven't done so is that it would be a lot of work and most people wouldn't be interested. Btw sorry if I was "talking down" to you before, you obviously know a lot about statistics based on your second comment :-)

@@JackyVSO I don't think it's so important as to actually presenting the data in the most scientifically accurate way, though that would be nice, but it affects the framing around the findings. Depending on uncertainty measures, it might go from "race X has a small advantage under these conditions" to "balance is not statistically different from zero." Especially in the race advantage in different times of the game, that can't be too many games in each bin! But the percentages here are displayed as if they are as accurate as the overall race win percentage. Alternatively, you could frame it more around how many games out of 100 are "decided" by these factors, or better yet, how often do these results meaningfully influence the outcome of a best-of-2, 5 or 7? That could be pretty easily tested through simulation. I know I'm asking for a lot here. If you don't have the time, software or inclination to do it, if you send me the raw data I can run through analysis and get back to you.

@@michaellopate4969 I'm not making any promises about changing the page but I'll gladly send over the database for you to analyze on your own. I'll also send the Python scripts I used to extract the insights if you like.

On 4P maps, cross spawn vs adjacent is pretty huge too. It's pretty annoying that there are 2 big factors are map pick and RNG before the first mineral is gathered. The data appears to suggest we would find the most balance (across all matchups) if the map pool was tilted towards 3P maps.

It's not as dramatic as in ZvT, but defilers in ZvP can come into play when zerg is on 4+ bases. Z needs plague and darkswarm to break turtled up Protoss expansions in the late game.

Plague really fuck up toss since toss have no way to recover hp. thats why most zvp ends with gateway composition