Kentucky Derby 2024 Wet Track Analysis: Sierra Leone, Mystik Dan, Just a Touch
Рет қаралды 2,733
Ай бұрынIn this #horseracing handicapping video recorded on 5-1-24, Jarrod Horak takes a look at the best wet track horses in the Derby.
Kentucky Derby 2024 field: 1 - Dornoch (20-1), 2 - Sierra Leone (3-1), 3 - Mystik Dan (20-1), 4 - Catching Freedom (8-1), 5 - Catalytic (30-1), 6 - Just Steel (20-1), 7 - Honor Marie (20-1), 8 - Just a Touch (10-1), 9 - Encino - SCRATCHED, 10 - T O Password (30-1), 11 - Forever Young (10-1), 12 - Track Phantom (20-1), 13 - West Saratoga (50-1), 14 - Endlessly (30-1), 15 - Domestic Product (30-1), 16 - Grand Mo the First (50-1), 17 - Fierceness (5-2), 18 - Stronghold (20-1), 19 - Resilience (20-1), 20 - Society Man (50-1), 21 - Epic Ride (50-1), AE 22 - Mugatu
The 2024 #kyderby is the 12th race at Churchill Downs on Saturday, May 4.
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@daryldorsey6531 Ай бұрын
Thx Jarrod for your hard work
@JarrodHorak Ай бұрын
Hopefully all of this hard work pays off with some winning Derby tickets.
@benettaperry5165 Ай бұрын
Perfect information…thank you
@JarrodHorak Ай бұрын
You're welcome. Good luck with your Derby wagers, rain or shine!
@robertmiller6478 Ай бұрын
Jarrod you have always been a real good handicapper definitely a workhorse 😁
@JarrodHorak Ай бұрын
Thanks. Trying to cover all bases in these videos.
@AlleKat Ай бұрын
You hit the exacta but they say the track had dried out ?
@evansib4130 Ай бұрын
Hello Jarrod, been a little late to the game this year trying to play catch up. To me it looks like fierceness if he runs even his A minus race will win so I’m looking to try and key him with the 4,7 and 8. Have to leave SL off to try and make some money and would rather take the two better priced closers given the closers could be a crapshoot depending on trips. My question is what are you projecting for the 1/4 and 1/2 fractions because that is my biggest concern for fierceness and just a touch who I think are the fastest horses in this bunch.
@JarrodHorak Ай бұрын
Fierceness is a tough read. He is clearly the fastest horse and has a ton of raw ability, but he threw in clunkers twice as the heavy favorite. He also has a zig zag pattern (good race/bad race). He needs a clean start and a very forwardly placed trip. Dornoch almost has to set the pace from the inside post. Track Phantom always sets the pace and he adds blinkers. Just a Touch and Fierceness should be up near the pace as well, and possibly one or two others. The pace could be hot depending on the break and rider decisions. The two most logical outcomes. 1 - Fierceness is just faster than these and wins as the favorite. 2 - The pace is fast and Sierra Leone has too much stamina for these and wins from off the pace.
@evansib4130 Ай бұрын
@@JarrodHorakagreed on those two most likely outcomes. Reminds me of last year with tapit trice and forte. But, tapit trice went off as the favorite and never got his trip and didn’t hit the board so I think my best bet would be have fierceness with just a touch hoping for a 23 or slower 1/4 pace. Then maybe take a more valuable closer in CF and HM and if SL beats me he beats me. Was just curious as I know SL has been your top pick but his odds are so close to fierceness didn’t know if that just meant you expected a hot pace. With such close odds between the two I’ll take the class of the field with some value closers. Good to get your read again, good luck Saturday.
@JarrodHorak Ай бұрын
@@evansib4130 Actually, Angel of Empire was the favorite last year and he finished 3rd. Sierra Leone seems to have more gears than Tapit Trice. The latter was a bit quirky, and he is finally running again in the G2 Alysheba Stakes at CD on May 3. In the early betting, Fierceness is 8-5 and Sierra Leone is 6-1. That could obviously change as we get closer to the race. It might not be a bad idea to wager on both possible outcomes. Structure tickets with the pace holding together and Fierceness winning, and maybe a trifecta with a fast pace and horses like Sierra Leone taking advantage. The track could be wet as well, so that throws another variable out there. On paper, it does look like the pace could be hot. It seems like a good bet that the pace should be at least honest. I would be a bit surprised if the pace was more controlled.
@AlleKat Ай бұрын
@@JarrodHorak Im betting with your first outcome,plus pletchers due to win a derby.The Japanese horse "forever young "looks scary but I don't trust his speed figures.
@JarrodHorak Ай бұрын
@@AlleKat Fierceness is the fastest horse on paper. He is a bit inconsistent and is capable of winning big or finishing nowhere. Forever Young has good sheets numbers but horses exiting the UAE Derby have never made an impact in the Ky Derby (19 starters).
@teambitcoin7530 Ай бұрын
50/50 chance now the track comes up sloppy Saturday. If so, watch out for Mystik Dan. 🐎
@JarrodHorak Ай бұрын
Mystik Dan enjoyed the wet track at Oaklawn. I would expect a similar inside trip in the Derby.
@teambitcoin7530 Ай бұрын
@@JarrodHorak If it's sloppy, McPeek has a chance for Oaks / Derby double
@JarrodHorak Ай бұрын
@@teambitcoin7530 It could be a wet track. I just checked the forecast again and it says 40% chance of showers on Saturday.
@teambitcoin7530 Ай бұрын
@@JarrodHorak it didn't matter to me that it was dry. I had Mystic. Dan at 22-1 in a future bet
@JarrodHorak Ай бұрын
@@teambitcoin7530 Outstanding. Way to go!
@italianwaterice9594 Ай бұрын
are you going to scratch if it rains.... i saw your only race in the mud you got caught on the turn
@JarrodHorak Ай бұрын
I am a mudder and will keep plugging away in the lane.
@italianwaterice9594 Ай бұрын
@@JarrodHorak the Ack Ack in your lines does suggest this
@JarrodHorak Ай бұрын
@@italianwaterice9594 I can run on anything. I do not the kickback but will persevere.
@italianwaterice9594 Ай бұрын
@@JarrodHorak Chad Brown may throw a rabbit in there to bother you .. the blinkers will help you dispose of him lol
@JarrodHorak Ай бұрын
@@italianwaterice9594 I need the blinkers to help me focus. I am ready for a big effort.
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