Lacy Hunt: Prepare For Recession, The Fed's Optimism Is Wrong

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3 ай бұрын

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The S&P and Nasdaq are back to all-time highs. And the recently-released Q4 GDP data beat analysts expectations, positively, by a long shot.
So are we in the clear? Is the soft landing camp being proven right?
Have we been able to side step the Lag Effects so many expected from the Fed's aggressive campaigns of rates hikes and Quantitative Tightening?
Is inflation indeed on its way to being tamed this year?
For answers, we have the great fortune to sit down today with one of the greatest living economists, Dr. Lacy Hunt, former Senior Economist to the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, as well as several of the world's largest global banks. He now serves as Executive Vice President and Chief Economist of Hoisington Investment Management Company.
#recession #inflation #deflation
_____________________________________________
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Пікірлер: 461

@adam.taggart 3 ай бұрын

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@wellnesspathforme6236 3 ай бұрын

By ‘economic growth’ he means measured in monetary terms. The PHYSICAL (real) economy is flat or contracting.

@omnimoeish 3 ай бұрын

Adam a question I think you should ask all your guests is what they would do if they were Jerome Powell because people can pontificate on whatever they see happening just like I can but I think that brings it all together. That question was really a lost opportunity given Lacy's considerable experience at the Fed. Also you should ask how do they invest given their current market outlook because sometimes it's not always clear. I'm very curious what Lacy's thoughts on monetary policy are and what he thinks Powell is looking at when clearly Powell must have all of the data Lacy just laid out.

@issenvan1050 3 ай бұрын

Why not timestamps?

@issenvan1050 3 ай бұрын

You should broker a debate between Hanke & Hunt.

@gregorysagegreene 3 ай бұрын

Hunt states the obvious, in that what I call *embedded* inflation hasn't decreased. It's just the velocity of the increases that fell. Quasi-permanent high prices will kill us.

@Baldwin321 20 күн бұрын

Interesting how over 2% inflation has been a concern when central banks and the Fed begin to hike interest rates. I consider the rising interest rate to be a very serious issue since it will undoubtedly cause more investors to withdraw their money from the stock market. But then I'm still aware of certain investors that continue to earn over $365,000. Wish I could accomplish that.

@Scarlett34568 20 күн бұрын

Very possible! Particularly in the current market. There are several opportunities to generate excellent returns, but such intricate transactions can only be carried out by seasoned market professionals.

@Annie56427 20 күн бұрын

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@scottbscop1251 3 ай бұрын

Eating the seed corn…. What a great metaphor for where we’re at. So many people are going to be wrecked.

@gregmorello4267 3 ай бұрын

what do you mean wrecked?

@FreeSpeech4All 3 ай бұрын

What do you mean "going to be"?

@jobob47 3 ай бұрын

there will be much wailing and gnashing of teeth. many who think themselves well off today will be found to be flat broke.

@justanopinion-ub9pp 3 ай бұрын

It will be a comedy show.. If people follow the cash off a cliff , they have no to blame but their own greed..

@n4870s 3 ай бұрын

When?

@GraceBrian715 3 ай бұрын

*People say that money is not the key to happiness, but I always figured if you have enough money, you can have a key made.*

@GraceBrian715 3 ай бұрын

“The greater the passive income you can build, the FREER you will become.”

@GraceBrian715 3 ай бұрын

Always put your finances in good care to ensure that your income rises. Wealthy people achieve there financial goals and acquire riches by seeking help from finance pro(s) but many claim to have achieved success themselves.

@TerrCarl6 3 ай бұрын

That’s a just approach. I’m 40 but my financial life is a mess. Any ideas will go a long way in shaping my life and finances.

@GraceBrian715 3 ай бұрын

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@GraceBrian715 3 ай бұрын

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@drewcietek2097 3 ай бұрын

I love Dr. Lacy Hunt! Have him on as much as you possibly can!

@SharolTilgner 3 ай бұрын

Lacy Hunt is such a treasure, and we are all so lucky he is sharing his wisdom with us. Thank you for inviting him Adam! I always listen to him if he is being interviewed as I know I will learn something each and every time.

@n4870s 3 ай бұрын

He was wrong for long time. I do respect him but he is too early

@ashsobhani2379 3 ай бұрын

Genius in play! Thank you. I always prefer to listen to the older, wiser analysts over the young imbecil ones on CNBC

@nohopeequalsnofear3242 3 ай бұрын

CNBC ,Wall Street journal and FT Lost their credibility a long time ago. People like Jim Cramer know they are clowns.

@jobob47 3 ай бұрын

there is nothing of value on cnBS

@mikeinportland30 3 ай бұрын

Amen! It's maturity here vs immaturity on the CNBC's of the world both in actual age but also in temperament and development. The topic of every day, every hour, every guest, regardless of the environment/circumstance is "what are you buying now?" There could be a deluge of raining falling knives outside and CNBC will offer up "what are you buying now?"

@davebrewer7170 3 ай бұрын

Andrew Ross sorkin is almost a communist.

@MosesKim-je5rj 3 ай бұрын

Adam brings on great guests with great insights. But he also asks great questions and navigates the conversations very well and politely. Great job.

@bydarkwaters2055 3 ай бұрын

Dr. Hunt is a national treasure. Thanks for introducing him to my edification. Adam!

@Falconlibrary 3 ай бұрын

Taggart brings on first rate guests and then lets them talk--a refreshing change from tv programs where the hosts hurry their guests along, try to "manage the message", and even interrupt them (often). This is how I wish mainstream media behaved.

@jobob47 3 ай бұрын

agree. let the man talk and (you the interviewer) shut the F up.

@mikeinportland30 3 ай бұрын

I cut the cord long ago, having given up on the mainstream business entertainment channels. So utterly worthless.

@Falconlibrary 3 ай бұрын

@@mikeinportland30 Worse, the MSM lies to us, especially about the economy.

@mohammadismail2424 3 ай бұрын

How often you get to hear from a legend like Lacy Hunt. Two great interviews, first with Danielle Park and now with Lacy Hunt. Thank you Adam.

@philwindows6932 3 ай бұрын

The System needs to rebalance itself. That means a recession weeds out companies that make no money. The problem is that governements and central banks do not want recessions. This anomaly encourages people to continual spend whether that is through credit cards, buy now pay later. The answer is that central banks and governments think they can inflate themselves out of this problem through increased prices and wages. However, as this process is pursued debt becomes bigger not smaller. Consumption is continually being pulled forwards until there are no consumers left. This will create either a long depression or period of stagflation lasting for a decade. Just look at Japan!

@handymadness 3 ай бұрын

Lacy Hunt is a legend.

@johnwood5387 3 ай бұрын

First time listening to this guy These are the type of people to lead us Not the scumbags that are in power!

@judithsmith9582 3 ай бұрын

No money in it

@Gabber44906 3 ай бұрын

You can tell Lacy is a real family man. Love his family photos. A good man/Grandpa Love this.🥰

@davidhamilton7166 3 ай бұрын

Mr Hunt is no doubt one of the best market researchers, but far from his world, as a small business owner, my world is collapsing in startling fashion. I own a business that provides descrecionary automotive repair services. My business is very successful, but since the beginning of the year the business has fallen to less than half of what it was - honestly, it’s worse now than the Covid Crisis. People come in for estimates, but they can’t afford the price; regardless of how much we discount. We try everything, but…

@s0.0s 3 ай бұрын

Maybe your competition is charging them less?

@friend757 3 ай бұрын

In my city in TN, there is a 2-3 month wait for automobile repair after a wreck because the population has exploded. Your business model is discretionary repair however and your location might play a factor.

@piglet5287 2 ай бұрын

Thank goodness I've found you again Adam! With all the familiar touches like the opening high-level question, being polite to guests - and Mike and John too. It's good to see that not everything gets worse in this world

@adam.taggart 2 ай бұрын

Thank you for the very kind words

@user-hx8jf6yo3i 3 ай бұрын

One of the best interview conducted, thank you!👍

@fubarbrandon1345 3 ай бұрын

Great guest and interview...thanks Adam.

@timmusick9875 3 ай бұрын

Outstanding, thanks to you both. Loking forward to the Conference!

@mcgowee 3 ай бұрын

I really appreciate Adam and his channel. I know a $#!+ storm is coming. Adam is really helping me to mentally prepare. Definitely, one of those moments where I can't express my gratitude.

@mattanderson6672 3 ай бұрын

Brilliant interview with Lacy as always!! Love Mike and John too!! Thanks all!!

@ChildOfAsura 3 ай бұрын

Adam, I just wanted to tell you "Thank You" The information you get as well as the guests you have are amazing. Happy you could carry on from Wealthion to Thoughtful Money. ❤🎉

@adam.taggart 3 ай бұрын

Wow, thank you!

@mikesontag1967 3 ай бұрын

Adam, thank you and the boys again for your steady insights on the markets. I appreciate all - especially the guests you have - they are world class outstanding!!

@jeffsurfanderson 3 ай бұрын

Adam I need you to do something for me. You interview all these people and it would be nice for you to just come on and do one yourself and summarize all the information you've gotten from all the people you have interviewed and then if you feel the need to vent out because you realize that people at large are being manipulated and wronged I would give you endless👍

@friendlychat34 3 ай бұрын

Agree to this!

@mkw2555 3 ай бұрын

Great conversation !! Thank you !

@JDHart 3 ай бұрын

This is my kind of deep dive economic information. You do an awesome job Adam, asking all the questions that I would like to ask. Thank you for your great work sir!

@adam.taggart 3 ай бұрын

Glad it was helpful!

@JDHart 3 ай бұрын

@@adam.taggart You’re my go to source for economic truth.

@edumacation7567 3 ай бұрын

what an amazing interview, thank you for this

@rogermenendez4052 3 ай бұрын

We live in an economy where law and personal responsibility have been cancelled by government fiat. Everyone thinks they can ignore debt forever, just like the federal government. When massive defaults and foreclosures arrive, the social contract will come apart

@erinsweet8147 3 ай бұрын

I have seen a lot of people in my Facebook groups saying “I’m making the most I ever have but still struggling to make ends meet”. I See people losing jobs, just another post today about a woman’s whole department being laid off. The stock market isn’t the economy, people out here are struggling.

@Jesse-iw5yp 3 ай бұрын

Excellent interview, Adam. Love the new channel.

@tullycathey9586 3 ай бұрын

Excellent! A much needed reality check! Thanks so much for your show!

@florianhladik1093 3 ай бұрын

I noticed the halo too :) Adam, your intro question is iconic by now! Outstanding interview yet again.

@maddie34476 3 ай бұрын

You never disappoint! Awesome work! 😀

@mattirobinson 3 ай бұрын

Lacy Hunt shared his words of wisdom. He’s one of my favorites.

@erinsweet8147 3 ай бұрын

Another Great Interview!! ❤

@joelamatta5264 3 ай бұрын

Thank you so much Adam.

@caroledoerr6872 3 ай бұрын

Thanks Lacey, you are explaining economics beautifully. I remember studying these concepts.

@RichardSKLim 3 ай бұрын

Great interview by Adam Taggart with Lacy Hunt.

@SkellyGamingCreates 3 ай бұрын

This was excellent, thank you.

@kruggiero 3 ай бұрын

Always the most intelligent financial conversations. So fortunate to listen to the greats including Lacy Hunt. Much appreciation!

@RWROW 3 ай бұрын

Every time Jim Rogers is interviewed he says that he doesn't know when the next recession will occur but he expects it to be the worst of his long lifetime. I'm not hearing any different from Lacy Hunt.

@SR-ob3wn 3 ай бұрын

So basically every guest on this channel.

@peterbedford2610 3 ай бұрын

Yup.

@kirkheisey2597 3 ай бұрын

THANKS FOR YOUR GREAT WORK

@DaylonDubkowski 3 ай бұрын

Adam is such a great interviewer! Patient, thoughtful, respectful, and a good listener! Keep up the good work!!

@jeffsurfanderson 3 ай бұрын

Thanks Adam your guest was amazing as are you keep up the good work

@evgeniiastapov354 3 ай бұрын

Another great interview. Thank you!

@stanleykreis5844 3 ай бұрын

Watched half so far. But very interesting and explanatory toward macro economy and equity markets.

@petergozinya6122 3 ай бұрын

Thank you Adam

@detectiveofmoneypolitics 3 ай бұрын

Economic investigator Frank G Melbourne Australia is still watching this very informative content cheers Frank 😊

@jetstream3528 3 ай бұрын

Great show and great list of attendees for that upcoming conference

@sheevamatimbas4300 3 ай бұрын

Great podcast with the Legend that is Doc Hunt. 😊

@jeannewright3027 3 ай бұрын

Very good interview. Thank you.

@davcochrane 3 ай бұрын

Brilliant analysis! I wish more people understood this!

@Maggiemay1942 3 ай бұрын

Key part of this for me was absence of moral hazard in current system or at least post 2007/8. "Too big to fail" has distorted risk taking. The "rich" keep getting bailed out by the "poor" and get even richer.

@akumacode 3 ай бұрын

Adam, Wealthion is not the same without you. I still enjoy your interviews more

@bn7228 3 ай бұрын

He’s really really good! So enjoyable

@chrisleach7931 3 ай бұрын

Masterclass from Lacy Hunt.. ‘Repression’ = forthright / truthful.. 👍

@234currency 3 ай бұрын

Excellent discussion with Lacy who shares his vast knowledge/experience/down to earth realistic understanding of what is really ccuring vs the Wall St/Gov't/media hype

@719603 3 ай бұрын

I watch Dr. Hunt every chance I get. He seemed to a lot of energy for this interview, and it was a pleasure to watch.

@MAMP 3 ай бұрын

This guest is wonderful! Love it!

@kevinobrien9271 3 ай бұрын

Great charts by John! 🙏

@johnhansen337 3 ай бұрын

Sobering, Knowlegable, Superbly Hosted, and as likely to be listened to as was the 'Ice Berg Warning' in the early morning hours of 15 April 1912 in the North Atlantic Ocean. Thank You for this radar view.

@dharmaabeles1238 3 ай бұрын

GOOD JOB ADAM LACY IS A WEALTH OF KNOWLEDGE

@Ps119 3 ай бұрын

Yeaah, an honest knowledgeable economist with humility.

@johnlaubenstein758 3 ай бұрын

Lacy is always a stunning listen

@SkipDulcet 3 ай бұрын

lacy is brilliant, thanks Adam

@SACREDFlRE 3 ай бұрын

You get some great guests Adam 🔥

@tonya1604 3 ай бұрын

The quality of the guests just took a giant leap forward.

@armandodimarzio1136 3 ай бұрын

Great interview!

@allanwessel9944 3 ай бұрын

First time here amazing info will continue and learn.😊

@Radisson446 3 ай бұрын

Adam is really good. excellent guests, he summarises and simplifies if needed and ensures no one is lost. . wealtheon is a waste of time without him

@bpb5541 3 ай бұрын

Thanks Gents !!!

@qtrader 3 ай бұрын

Really enjoy your interviews and highlights of the speakers thoughts. Think it would be a better conversation flow to allow Lacy to naturally move into inflation. Can't make a comment then switch gears and to a seeming off topic of payday loans.

@mikestilllearning3111 3 ай бұрын

I always get excited when i see lacy hunts name. He is amazing.

@lisaunderwood809 3 ай бұрын

Awesome info! Spot on!

@MasterHomeowner 3 ай бұрын

Back in the day.... When I was working for the finance companies, the standard 36 or 48 month installment loan was charged 29% interest plus 2 points and rules of 78 precalculated finance charges which front loaded the finance charges.

@jays9870 3 ай бұрын

Terrific interview with an economic mastermind; thanks so much for producing this gem.

@graemetunbridge1738 3 ай бұрын

thanks

@joejones4296 3 ай бұрын

Excellent!

@Shane-yx2hi 3 ай бұрын

Another fantastic video adam

@marycooper8385 Ай бұрын

Good guests as always

@TradersWorldMagazine 3 ай бұрын

Excellent interview

@douglasreace1052 3 ай бұрын

Lacy reminds me so much of the director at YMCA in Des Moines were I spent my early childhood during the 1950's, who was a older gentleman, yet despite his age and position in the organization was such a wonderful mentor, that all the children looked up to and respected because of his thoughtful level of concern, kindness, and compassion for each child despite their economic status with equally treatment while under his supervision and care. Best regards to you Lacy.

@jackalay23 3 ай бұрын

Love some LAcy Hunt. Sorry I missed that chat royal rumble between GHM and Neil.......

@user-ic7bd7ty1i 3 ай бұрын

Great content and insights shared. In addition to tools being introduced to the to encourage continued consumer spending other tools are showing up in the workplace like „daily pay“ to provide instant access to income which even if well intended may support spending behavior . More and more tools to make it easy to spend …

@vacationism 3 ай бұрын

Lacy is the MAN.

@auntiefiat9769 3 ай бұрын

What a prince of a man Lacy is!!

@JohnTaylor-ts8wk 3 ай бұрын

Great interview. Too many of today's rich politicians don't even recognize that the economy has problems. Even worse, they mis-diagnose the problems we have and make them worse.

@SB-xm5uw 3 ай бұрын

Lacy Hunt is one of best economic minds out there. Thanks for bringing him on (again). One follow up question (maybe Adam for another knowledgeable guest): what part of gap between GDI and GDP comes from unrecognized Fed losses? Does it make the GDI/GDP gap less scary when/if you know it comes from the Fed?

@artsanchez9338 3 ай бұрын

Your a genius Adam 😮

@MacroOptics 3 ай бұрын

Adam can you have your editor add time stamps in your videos? That way we can click to different topics?

@elsegreve9455 3 ай бұрын

Great interview, which lending company for buy now pay later will be effected?

@VMNEO 3 ай бұрын

this and other discussions all line up and point to a perfect storm, I am afraid

@godsservant2835 3 ай бұрын

Such a brilliant mind

@light1908 3 ай бұрын

This was such a great (and terrifying) interview, thank you for keeping it real!

@keithcourtney5883 3 ай бұрын

Another bang on interview!!! Our national savings aggregate is going down at a time when sitting on the sidelines returns 5.25%🤔

@monkswhiskers3354 3 ай бұрын

Adam gets the BIG guns in! x

@giftedtoserve 3 ай бұрын

I really like Mike Preston's summary at the end

@caroledoerr6872 3 ай бұрын

Thank you Lacey Hunt for explaining the reasons for the reports that expose different facts . The debt based economy is dying and the Middle Class is becoming extinct.