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-Michael Pento predicts a "liquidity crunch" causing a severe economic downturn in the coming months, due to disinflation and slowed growth. This could lead to negative nominal prints for Q2, Q3, and Q4 of 2023, signaling an official recession and significant fall in financial averages.
Pento observes an over-leveraged global economy, fueled by "free money" and low interest rates, leading to record inflation and asset bubbles. He indicates that non-financial business debt is now 75.8% of GDP, higher than before the global financial crisis.
According to Pento, we're moving from rapid inflation to disinflation, primarily due to a decrease in money supply growth rate. The Federal Reserve's policy of money printing and loan encouragement has led to this shift.
The Federal Reserve's increase in federal funds rate and contraction of bank lending standards following the banking crisis has contributed to the economic tension. With the current debt levels, Pento suggests that the economy could be more vulnerable to rising interest rates.
Pento's model predicts that the current disinflation will transition into deflation and recession in the near future. He suggests using a five-sector investment strategy based on the inflation spectrum for financial positioning during these changing economic conditions.
Visit Michael at pentoport.com/
Or call (732) 772-9500 or email mpento@pentoport.com
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