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Property Sellers Think It's 2021 and Buyers Think it's 2008/9! Right? Well I am here to tell you it's neither one of those times. It looks a whole lot more like it's 1999 and I can't believe it because we did not coordinate that at all! Right, and I had no idea but it absolutely true that the economic conditions that are in play today are very reminiscent of what happened to the economy in 1999/2000 and really into 2001, so basically just to short cut that and tell you what I mean by that, in a nutshell it was one of those times where what's happening in financial markets, specifically the stock market and in the bond market it is very disconnected from the real economy. The economy you guys live and work in every single day. Now part of the reason for that is the Federal Reserve has raised rates at its fasted pace that we have observed, really since the the 1980's. It is this rapid rising of rates, which by the way just to cut it off really quickly because somebody laughs and you think they are going to keep going and the answer is no I think you're done. I think we are the very end. The last meeting the federal reserve had last week was probably the last hikes on interest rates. Now everyone with the headlines that you are reading are saying we are going to be cutting rates at the end of this year right? You probably read that story and I actually believe that's the case too. But most folks are saying they believe they are going to cut rates at the 2nd half of this year towards the end of this year because the economy is going to be in a recession. I don't believe that's true! I actually don't expect a recession in the 2nd half of this year. The Fed will be cutting rates but the reason the Fed will be cutting rates is inflation will be that down to a level they will be comfortable with in cutting rates. Now how do I know that, because I have been watching inflation very closely and if you saw the inflation report on Wednesday, it showed for the first time that inflation level of 4.9%, lower than 5% the first time in 2 years. So inflation if it continues along this path will be back to between 2-3% by the 2nd half of this year we will still allow the federal reserve to cut rates so that's the boring part of speech, just cutting off we are getting into the numbers really really quickly. Now, for those who are deal with pirates that really think it's 2008/9 and everything is going down the drain so to speak and the economy in crisis and there is going to be cheap houses everywhere and builders who are going to be desperate, right? They are anticipating something called a 'hard landing'. I am sure you have heard of a 'hard landing' right? I spend a lot of time on airplanes so I like to talk about hard landings. The reality is that these hard landing scenarios are anticipating that the Federal Reserve raises point to a rate it tips the economy into recession because that's what a hard landing is right? Now for most people who talk about that, number 1 they don't know what a recession is, and they don't know is a hard landing only happens one time, so what we are going to do today is sum up, number 1 very quickly for everybody to be on the same page, look up what a recession really means, what it actually is! In truth i know we are going to talk how the economy is very different today than the last time we had a hard landing. So about hard landings that are different today than what happened in the 1990's seems like a forever time ago, but when people talk about a hard landing, particularly if they are over 60 years old, this is what they are talking about. When we talk about what's different and the marketing tools and you lived through this time and the federal reserve bank and then rates dropped just like that, then you are going to be saying a few things are very different today than they were back then, but before you can do that, be clear to say what a recession is because there is a lot of people out there right, because if I was talking to a group and say show the hands for who thinks we are in a recession, now don't you guys raise up your hands because you guys all know and have have been watching me every single month, we are not in a recession.A recession actually requires, wide spread decline in economic activity. Declined economic activity spread across multiple sectors it has to last more than a few months.
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