More property than people? Oversupply in Dubai Could be a problem.

Рет қаралды 3,186

Күн бұрын

Your concern about oversupply is addressed by looking at statistics to support a conclusion.
Here is a complimentary call with me to discuss this market in more detail:
Data: dxbinteract.com/dubai-propert...
Dubai Vision: dubai2040.ae/en/
Chapters
00:00 Introduction
00:30 Invite
00:57 Why
01:31 Reason
02:03 Census
02:30 Public Math
03:13 Supply Need
04:01 Current Supply
06:31 Supply By Area
08:11 Thank You

Пікірлер: 32

@realestatematedxb 10 күн бұрын

calendly.com/letstalkproperty/30min

@SebarnaSingh 7 күн бұрын

Love the use of stats and future planing. Question that we could talk about is also the building of the new air port. Increased tourism, which both will create a higher demand for property that are being used as air bnb

@Immoloc 5 күн бұрын

Hi, seems to me you are missing half of the equation. Meaning how is Dubai doing on it population growth target? Unit supply is something that can easily be adjusted. And purchasing power as well by modifying mortgage rules ... but having people moving in and stay is something else. So I wish you also have analyzed population growth, trend of average years presence in the city...profile of this population (single, families etc...) this would tell a lot more about the outlook if not for the next 10-15 years, maybe for the next 5..thanks

@n2p801 7 күн бұрын

Well done, caption suggested something stupid but these figures do support the reasons why Dubai is still very early in growth spurt

@danielcespedes2843 9 күн бұрын

there are plenty of new projects right now with unsold units....even projects already handed over....sitting for months in the market....your theory based on a population figure that may be meet in 16 years is highly speculative.

@realestatematedxb 9 күн бұрын

Hi! Thanks for taking time to watch and comment. "Insights we have are only as good as the data we have access to" You are a data guy, you will understand. Here are the Gov sources for the "Speculation" dubai2040.ae/en/ So, not a theory, but rather a goal and objectives. Empty Units: Demand and supply. If its sitting empty for months, then the price is wrong. There is no demand for overpriced stock 😉. Show (Comment) me a well priced ready project that have plenty of developer stock, and I'll give you feedback on it.

@dinofabrizzi2116 6 күн бұрын

@@realestatematedxbif a goal Is not reached It remains just a goal

@Th3SilentObserver 6 күн бұрын

I actually am/was thinking seriously about expanding my (green) biotech startup company to dubai but honestly the legal situation what is allowed and what is not allowed is so complex and confusing I dropped my plans, and even saying this openly here gives me this weird feeling I would be critical of dubai (which I am not, its a business decision), not sure whether this will have negative consequences, and thats exactly the problem, it makes me feel uncomfortable

@robin-london 7 күн бұрын

Supply is 200,000 new units from mid 2022 to mid 2024 over the last 24 months. 50,000 units last 6 months of 2022, 100,000 units in 2023 and 50,000 units in first 6 months of 2024. 100,000 units per year is a lot. It will not be a crash because most of these units are purchase for golden visa for vacation home etc... However rent will probably decrease a little bit and I think the government of Dubai wants them to decrease to be more competitive... Otherwise people will not come in large number if rent keep increasing. Most people in Europe are interest in Dubai because real estate is very cheap... if it becomes expensive we will not be interest anymore and I think the government of Dubai is smart and know it. So the government will probably increase supply unlimited in order to keep off plan average price around 1000 - 2000 psf ( we are currently at 1,700 sqf). So they can achieve population growth target.

@realestatematedxb 7 күн бұрын

Suuuuppper insightful. Thank you!

@Faisal-gf6zs 9 күн бұрын

Hey Cobus, enjoyed the video! I’m curious to know when the combined supply from ongoing projects and those in the pipeline will reach the required 51k units + Given the decline in supply handed over this year, it seems likely to catch up in the coming months alongside ongoing and pipeline developments. It would be great to see a trendline on this. If we’re nearing breakeven, what should investors watch out for to avoid getting caught up in the hype? With your local experience do you think the government might intervene by halting permits for new projects? Also, is the decline this year due to bad weather and infrastructure issues that surfaced recently?

@realestatematedxb 9 күн бұрын

Hey! My theory is, there is possibly a lagg in the data or lagg in the contract registrations. I won't be surprised to see the stats look different by the end of Q3, coming into alignment with the high 30,000 averages we have seen in the past 3 years. Luckily the entire landbank of Dubai is not zoned for development. There are only 5 Zones in Dubai, which is the focus for development and preservation. The DLD is in control of supply. They will stop issuing smaller developers licenses to build when that time comes. Real Estate contributes over 14% to Dubai's GDP, so we have to assume they will be bullish. Not getting caught up in the hype, is to avoid buildings shapes like Sparkly Diamons 🤪, and being told you can flip it dor a profit 6 months later. You are referring to the storm? It was all back to normal, business as usual in 6 days. As if it never happened🤣. And seen no impact on transaction volume or prices. That trend pipeline sounds like a great video. I'll credit you 😉

@abdulwahidp.v1339 8 күн бұрын

I went to book a 1bhk unit recently for a new Tower launch on Sheikh Zayed Road and dint get even a chance to offer a price and all the 188 units in the tower was sold out in 24 hours . Project name : One B Tower Developer : Al Wasl Location : Sheikh Zayed Road Dubai So there is no chance the Demand is going to reduce in the near future !

@realestatematedxb 8 күн бұрын

One B, stands for One Billinon meals initiative. I thought that was a brilliant commemoration. It was special, I also did not get one. Hope you get something speacial soon.

@bilpat5123 8 күн бұрын

"Selling overhyped Dreams" selling sand as gold dust alot people have FOMO. Sooner or later prices will naturally settle and lot of people will be in negative equity

@realestatematedxb 8 күн бұрын

Sounds like you are describing a natural investment cycle. Ups and downs are part of nature. Will the Sun definitely shine tomorrow...No, but should we plan for it, absolutely.

@bilpat5123 8 күн бұрын

@realestatematedxb 👍 lived and worked there for 15 years and just couldn't understand the crazy 'artificially' inflated prices of rent and properties.

@realestatematedxb 8 күн бұрын

Did you get an opprtunity to invest in property here at that time?

@bilpat5123 7 күн бұрын

@realestatematedxb no, so spent my early time there in Abu Dhabi where expats couldn't purchase outright good real estate units until around 2019, by that time I was itching to leave so didn't invest there.

@mohammedbelal6823 10 күн бұрын

May I know from where you got 7.8m people by 2040 in Dubai?

@realestatematedxb 10 күн бұрын

Sure. dubai2040.ae/en/ Book a call if you need more information.

@realestatematedxb 9 күн бұрын

Happy with the source? 😉

@CryptoBinary01 8 күн бұрын

He is totally correct moreover there is a lot expats like workers who are gaining salaries below 5k and living in sharing and bed spaces like 15 person or more in one flat and bunker beds those are totally out from that equation also and competition with Saudi Arabia in the future which started to seize headquarters of companies will make that target harder to sell all of these projects and will lead to ultra bubble real estate market