Most People Don't Realize What's Coming

Most People Don't Realize What's Coming - Jeremy Grantham

Рет қаралды 435,245

2 жыл бұрын

Feel free to contact me if you have questions or comments.
Ben Reppond
(406) 871-3321
ben@reppondinvestments.com
Learn how we manage money: • The Big Picture in Inv...
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Jeremy Grantham video
• Video
Chart of Dow Industrials during Great Depression
leduc998.wordpress.com/2008/0...
Titanic Timeline
titanicfacts.net/titanic-time...
Scott Minerd video on crypto.
• Bitcoin prices jump, S...
Produced by Pyro Studios: www.thepyrostudios.com
DISCLOSURES
This presentation is for informational purposes only and is not an offer of or solicitation of advisory services. The comparison of the volatility of Reppond Investments, Inc.’s strategies to the volatility of any stock market index is for illustrative purposes only. The differences between Reppond Investments Inc.’s results and those of the indices may be different due to differences in diversification and by the properties of the actual securities held by Reppond Investments, Inc. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk and there can be no assurance that any specific investment will be profitable or not.
Reppond Investments, Inc. does not make any guarantee that our strategies will or are likely to achieve returns like those shown in the performance graph in this presentation. Reppond Investments, Inc. reserves the right to trade different ETFs or mutual funds within a strategy than those reflected in the graphic shown. Stock market indices are unmanaged, broadly based indices, which differ in numerous respects from the specific portfolio composition. An investor cannot invest directly in these. Dividends and income are included in the index returns. The S&P 500 is a trademarked term of the McGraw Hill Company, and index data was compiled from sources we believe to be reliable. However, Reppond Investments, Inc. makes no representations or guarantees with respect to the accuracy or completeness of that type of data.
Past performance is not indicative of future results. Therefore, no current or prospective client should assume that future performance will be profitable. The historical performance results for indices and index funds, used as proxies for indices, are provided exclusively for comparison purposes. They are intended to provide general comparative information to help an individual client or prospective client in deciding whether the performance of Reppond Investments, Inc.’s strategies meet, or continue to meet, his/her investment objective(s). An investor should not assume that any strategy used by Reppond Investments, Inc. will directly correspond to any such comparative index.
Different types of investments and/or investment strategies involve varying levels of risk. There can be no assurance that any specific investment or investment strategy (including the investment strategies devised or undertaken by Reppond Investments, Inc.) will be profitable for a client’s or prospective client’s portfolio. All performance results have been compiled solely by Reppond Investments, Inc. and are from sources we believe to be reliable. They have not been independently audited or verified.
Investments in securities involve risk and the loss of investment principal is possible. Investments in securities will not always be profitable.

Пікірлер: 919

@Mr---mr4ll 2 жыл бұрын

When ever I feel slightly comfortable and optimistic I always put on Jeremy Grantham interviews to at least keep me grounded in reality

@Reppondinvestments 2 жыл бұрын

Well said. He is not afraid to speak the truth.

@timm.6391 2 жыл бұрын

I've kept a chicken flock for years, this spring I let a couple hens hatch some eggs to expand the flock, and have a decent garden going. Eggs are a great base protein, plus other needed nutrients. Also, they produce fertilizer for next grow season. Vacuum sealer and freezer and canning things plus buying cheap shelf stable dry goods. These bastards aren't starving me to death... there is also the fishing/ hunting factor. I grew up growing birds and produce and hunting/ fishing. I can also repair nearly anything I own, sometimes making my own parts.

@Reppondinvestments 2 жыл бұрын

Very good points, Tim. People who think like you will be survivors. I do a lot of the same things.

@timm.6391 2 жыл бұрын

@@Reppondinvestments Don't get too sold on newer tech.... simple radios are good to keep, HAM, CB,Etc.... older tube tech... more resistant to EMP... keep some old tech around... carburetor engines, learn to gassify fuel or distill alcohol for fuel. In case a full or assault is made on the country or world citizens. We have to survive the assault of it if it happens before we can gather again.

@samdorchester2524 2 жыл бұрын

Good for you. I am freeze drying food everyday.

@da9413 2 жыл бұрын

I think the repairing part is the biggest one and growing a garden and keeping livestock , chickens etc. Hunting and fishing is good as a hobby but if times get tough, deer, turkey and fish will become scarce.

@larryellis5675 2 жыл бұрын

Do you have any rooms for rent? Sir, you are a wise man and a good example of how to survive in the coming economic tsunami.

@wilsoneashoian5789 2 жыл бұрын

Thank you for the video. It's very informative. I love when people speak soft, slow and don't play music to make their video more dramatic. Thanks again.

@Reppondinvestments 2 жыл бұрын

Thank you so much. Appreciate your kind words. And thanks for watching and commenting.

@DevineAbyss 2 жыл бұрын

Yeah I have to agree. You are very calm and down-to-earth, presenting lots of data while reasoning your predictions. This was a very informative video. I still really rearly hope that you are wrong though (: For obvious reasons (: That beeing said, I still have more than 30 years to go until my retirement. I diversified quite a bit aswell. If everthing goes to shit, I hope it will be back up by the time I retire (:

@LawFirm1970 2 жыл бұрын

It's "softly"

@LawFirm1970 2 жыл бұрын

It's "softly"

@11riehldeal 2 жыл бұрын

@@LawFirm1970 did pointing that out make you feel better?

@nangee2990 2 жыл бұрын

You are correct sir. The so called professionals have ignored the warning signs. I pulled my money out of managed accounts last week because they were not listening to my concerns. They told me I would lose money in cash. My goodness, I've been losing money since last August and was paying them to do it. My next move is to get it out of the banking system altogether.

@Reppondinvestments 2 жыл бұрын

Point well made.

@thecodetalker5742 2 жыл бұрын

I heard a report that said the overwhelming majority of managed accounts do not outperform index funds.

@adulttalks3348 2 жыл бұрын

Did you have your money in mutual funds also?

@harrycee656 2 жыл бұрын

Managed accounts is a scam. It's 1% management fee on top of the mutual management fees.

@davidb9323 2 жыл бұрын

What do you plan on investing in outside of the banking system?

@breslibrary 2 жыл бұрын

Outstanding video.. Whats weird about social media is that the people with the most experience get the least amount of views

@Reppondinvestments 2 жыл бұрын

Thank you. Completely agree. I spent time reading about the people who "got in right" in 2008. Very few did. I ended up coming across these people and others. These men were sounding the alarm bells ahead of time - as well as in 2008. Some even went back to the crashes of the 1970s - like Jim Rogers. Those are the ones I tend to listen to the most. Thanks again.

@CB-ur8zy 2 жыл бұрын

That’s not weird, they get put behind because it harms their practices

@Reppondinvestments 2 жыл бұрын

Agreed.

@samdorchester2524 2 жыл бұрын

Sad but true.

@Nikita-ik6cp 2 жыл бұрын

Thank you very much Ben 🙏 Your video was very insightful and you explained everything so clearly. Loved the practical advice at the end too. A quick query on the last point re cash in banks, what are the alternative options? Also how would you suggest the Superannuation funds (pension) in Australia specifically be protected. I have recently noticed people cashing their superannuation to buy real estate here but that would be risky too. Thanks again for the great content.

@Reppondinvestments 2 жыл бұрын

Thank you. Very kind words. When I refer to not keeping money in the banking system, I mean taking out physical cash and storing it at home in a safe place. I prefer to take it out in $20 bills. If the banking system collapses or they move everything to digital (probably not that far away from here), it might be helpful to have cash. Another alternative is to buy physical gold or silver. I prefer silver. Same reason, but it tends to hold its value over time - where as cash does not. There is a case for both. Not sure about pension funds in Australia. In the US, a person can cash in their pension before they begin drawing the pension. They can take it as cash (and pay the tax) or roll it into an individual retirement account where they have control over it. I recommend the latter.

@Brian-vs9sd 2 жыл бұрын

@@Reppondinvestments My worry with storing cash at home is that a government can determine that cash to not be legal tender and impose fines and jail sentences for those caught using it.

@Reppondinvestments 2 жыл бұрын

All you said is potentially correct. Jim Rickards recommends in his book, "The Death of Money" that you hold some combination of cash and precious metals. I personally prefer silver. If they make paper money worthless, then you can barter with silver or gold. Good points. Thanks for watching and for your comments.

@gordo3582 2 жыл бұрын

Who still needs a bank? Just keep your $ in a reputable brokerage account. This isn't 1929, we can certainly have a bad bear market but there is no reason to believe it will be some catastrophic doomsday scenario. Technology has continuously improved standards of living for the last hundred years. If the dollar rapidly loses value at some point stocks become an inflation hedge. We aren't on a gold standard anymore like in 1929. Look at countries with hyperinflation in modern times, their markets invariably rise in nominal terms. Sitting on cash is a disastrous mistake in these situations.

@Reppondinvestments 2 жыл бұрын

You make a very good point. I prefer to keep cash in a brokerage account rather than a bank. Thank you for your comment.

@33parentino 2 жыл бұрын

I thoroughly enjoyed this podcast. Thank you!

@Reppondinvestments 2 жыл бұрын

Thank you. Appreciate you watching.

@RetirementContentment 2 жыл бұрын

Thank you. Subscribed. Excellent, informative, honest video. Greatly appreciated.

@Reppondinvestments 2 жыл бұрын

You are welcome.

@doitbeforeyouareready6864 2 жыл бұрын

I got out of the market in December. I tried to warn my retired parents about an impending crash but they did not believe me. I will show this video to them. Hopefully it will move them to action. I think the Titanic analogy was powerful.

@Reppondinvestments 2 жыл бұрын

Thank you for your comments. It takes an open mind to step out of the way one has done things for many years. I hope things go well for you and them.

@nicoleandalfonso6355 2 жыл бұрын

Good for you… I got out in mid may 2022. I’m 100 cash and tips

@stangtrax 2 жыл бұрын

I posted a video at the end of December talking about upcoming crash and possibly dead decade. Also you don't loose your money if you don't sell. Also I know what technicals to look for entry after a bear market. I back tested it from 1929. I might sitting awaiting to get in heavy in my growth portfolio. Retirment portfolio should be income portfolios not growth portfolio. Many don't understand that, sadly.

@_Citizen_K 2 жыл бұрын

Hi, when you said you got out of the market, do you mean you took your investment money and parked it in 'cash' in the bank? I'd appreciate understanding what you did. Many thanks. :)

@teekaybe4016 2 жыл бұрын

What do you think that have money in their 401K? Is there a safe place to move it?

@mktwatcher 2 жыл бұрын

Thank you Ron. This an excellent synopsis of the markets and the economy over the last 6 months and their future trends.

@Reppondinvestments 2 жыл бұрын

Thank you for your generous comment.

@co...ahjack2818 2 жыл бұрын

Watching this 2 weeks after it was published is an eye opener. well done.

@Reppondinvestments 2 жыл бұрын

Thank you.

@okie2399 2 жыл бұрын

36 minutes in and great information and presentation sir. Thank you

@Reppondinvestments 2 жыл бұрын

Thanks so much. And thanks for watching.

@okie2399 2 жыл бұрын

@@Reppondinvestments yes sir and thank you for sharing because I shared it too. Just not sure how many will listen.

@Reppondinvestments 2 жыл бұрын

Appreciate your kind words.

@harismuzaffar1151 2 жыл бұрын

22:14 beautiful analysis

@Reppondinvestments 2 жыл бұрын

Thank you.

@memineaussi-cj4op 2 жыл бұрын

To add to the Titantic tale: their coal supply was possibly also on fire, which is why they were going so fast - to consume the coal store and put out the fire. The fire, if true, weakened the bulkhead. One of the engineers/designers of the ship took photographs of the other side of the ship and there is possible evidence of fire damage showing, which is why the Titanic ?docked backwards? The photos were only recently found in someone's attic.

@Reppondinvestments 2 жыл бұрын

Fascinating information. I suggest that you watch my video which will come out on Tuesday. It might add some even new information.

@francisbraden6239 2 жыл бұрын

Wow! Congratulations on your INTELLIGENCE!! Not many people know that there was a fire burning on board the Titanic. In an analogy I used in a College Class a few Years Back ...using Debt. Indicative of the Water Pouring into the Titanic. When a Massive Ship Sinks...it takes a good long time for the Ship to lose it's Boyounce and then it will sink like a Lead Brick once the precipitous point is reached. America has reached the Precipitous point! We are going down faster than poeple can even imagine.

@Reppondinvestments 2 жыл бұрын

Point well made. Agreed.

@jayant1966 2 жыл бұрын

Very informative video. Last few days I have been analyzing 100 years chart. 1929 30 and 1966 to 1980 , very scary. I am 29 years old,from India.

@Reppondinvestments 2 жыл бұрын

Thank you very much.

@alholloman3614 2 жыл бұрын

Thank you for your thorough, historical analysis. Please share any suggestions as to how and where to buy silver. I have some 19th century silver dollars, however, I'm not sure if you're advocating finding more coins or some other form of purchasing silver.

@Reppondinvestments 2 жыл бұрын

I always prefer to buy from a local retailer if possible - where you can check their reputation, etc. I have quite a bit of silver currency also from the 19th century. But most of mine is bullion - pure silver but not currency. I think right now that if I added more silver, I would just do it in bullion. The intrinsic value of pure silver should hold its value in a barter situation - which is what I am most concerned about. My son is in the precious metals business and I trust him completely. If I added to what I have I would buy it from him. If you want an introduction via email, let me know and I will give you his contact info. Thanks for watching and thanks for your comments.

@alholloman3614 2 жыл бұрын

@@Reppondinvestments I thought I responded affirmatively to your invitation to connect with your son. I would like to connect with him by email. Thanks again.

@Reppondinvestments 2 жыл бұрын

Al, his name is Preston Reppond. His email address is preston.reppond@gmail.com. Of course, I am biased as his dad. But you will find out that he is a great guy and truly wants to help people. He is a salaried employee and has no financial incentive to do anything but what is right for you. He works for a company in California (Pacific Precious Metals) and they are quite high volume as a brick and mortar retailer. Hence, they buy from the wholesalers at very good prices and sell at very good prices. I am confident he will treat you well.

@romeofardeen 2 жыл бұрын

Thank you so much for this video. What would be your advice to young people in their 20s to use the recession to their advantage?

@Reppondinvestments 2 жыл бұрын

Without knowing your specific situation, I cannot give specific advice. But it is thought that, in general, when a person is young and healthy and has many, many years in front of them, it is beneficial in the long run to just stay invested and keep adding money to one's investment account. This means that the investor is buying equities at lower and lower prices and probably has many years ahead for them to increase in value. Of course, the investor still has to be able to withstand market volatility. If that is acceptable, the above ideas might be helpful. Contact me if you need anything more specific.

@michelhekxx367 2 жыл бұрын

Make no debts..invest in yourself..with knowledge and health....health is everything..

@michaelvadney5803 2 жыл бұрын

Thanks for the video. I can see a ton of work in this presentation. I'm a Fed with TSP and I'm 60% stocks and 40% G funds. Being that the market has been and will continue to drop would you bail and move what you have left into the G fund or just let it go and hope that it regains value in the future. Of course if I bail now I lock in current losses. The future described in this presentation looks quite dire. Thanks again!

@Reppondinvestments 2 жыл бұрын

Very good question. If you will contact me, we can talk about what I would recommend in more of a one-on-one conversation. ben@reppondinvestments.com 406-871-3321 Ben

@theJackWise 2 жыл бұрын

Great vid. In particular, the " Practical Things you can do: list.Thank you!

@Reppondinvestments 2 жыл бұрын

Thanks so much. Appreciate your comment.

@RadMountainDad 2 жыл бұрын

Ben, thank you for putting this together. Interesting and well thought out.

@Reppondinvestments 2 жыл бұрын

You are welcome.

@ryanbaileyboxing 2 жыл бұрын

You got a new sub Great content

@Reppondinvestments 2 жыл бұрын

Thank you.

@aaronponce6557 2 жыл бұрын

Quality content, videos like this and insight from an expert really goes a long way.

@Reppondinvestments 2 жыл бұрын

Thank you so much.

@GPJfarming 2 жыл бұрын

Thank u for this video, watching from Mexico 🇲🇽 one question what happened to farmers during a ressecion? Do grain prices drop too?

@Reppondinvestments 2 жыл бұрын

I am not sure. But I would suspect that to be the case. Those with cash had the opportunity to quite well. But most were wiped out and did not have cash. Few people probably worried about their rate of return. As they say, "Cash was king."

@bobsims762 2 жыл бұрын

The way you explain things a little child can understand it. Thanks for keeping it simple 👌

@Reppondinvestments 2 жыл бұрын

Thank you so much. That is encouraging.

@phenomenal5537 2 жыл бұрын

Yes. Your pacing and tonality just kept me engaged.

@Reppondinvestments 2 жыл бұрын

Thank you.

@Agooo13431 2 жыл бұрын

Thank you so much for doing this. I have also been predicting the crash since last year. I have been trying to warn people to no avail. The refusal of people to listen is fascinating to me.

@Reppondinvestments 2 жыл бұрын

All you can do is to warn - and then prepare yourself.

@acollegekid 2 жыл бұрын

Would love to see some charts on how other items like Precious Metals etc did, as I know there’s a lag time. Love the video!

@Reppondinvestments 2 жыл бұрын

@Doc Good point. I do three charts on gold and silver - and a relative strength chart on them. And I update the price of spot for gold and silver. Thank you for your kind words. Ben

@jessewallace12able 2 жыл бұрын

Thank you so much for this video. 43 year old working class here just trying to understand what’s going on. This video has been excellent.

@Reppondinvestments 2 жыл бұрын

Thank you so much. You might like the one I am doing this coming week.

@alf287 Жыл бұрын

@@Reppondinvestments I want to take out all of my 401k. Is that possible? I really don't think we will be here for my retirement age tbh.

@jaimelopez-gi3oo 2 жыл бұрын

Great info. Question: your thoughts on investing in oil/ fuel/ alternative energy???

@Reppondinvestments 2 жыл бұрын

I don't invest in individual stocks or sectors. ESG Funds (alternative energy) have done very poorly. That would make you turn to oil and gas. They have done well this year, but there are other years where they have collapsed. I don't use a method of trying to guess this or that. Thanks for your question.

@mikep4869 2 жыл бұрын

Wow! New sub. I truly support what you are saying. I am out of the markets, I have sold my house & I have no debts. My friends think I am nuts when I talk about these topics. The masses cannot become wealthy at the same time.

@Reppondinvestments 2 жыл бұрын

I agree with your assessment and your actions. Thanks for watching and your comments.

@beccabrown1860 2 жыл бұрын

Hey, I’m a little confused by comments like yours…when you say you have sold your house,are you renting? Just wondering if it’s better to be renting or owning a house outright 😃

@Reppondinvestments 2 жыл бұрын

Becca, if you want me to share some thoughts with you, it might be best to talk by phone at your convenience. My cell is 406-871-3321. Ben Reppond

@dallycurtis4532 2 жыл бұрын

Yes sir, myself as well, sold it all, paid it all off, moved to Florida and staying in a friends house. lol Ben you're as sharp as a tack my friend. Thanks for your time on this, very very good information here to the point I've shared with those that I care about. Best regards to you.

@jetboy770371 2 жыл бұрын

When you say out of the market, I assume that you sold ALL stocks/etf's/mutual funds and have cash/ precious metals holdings ? I am going to draw a line in the sand and sell everything when it's crossed. That's my only way a invoice investor like me can save 75% of what I have. I'm 63 and just retired , sold my house last year.

@robinriches7798 2 жыл бұрын

Very good analysis.

@Reppondinvestments 2 жыл бұрын

Thank you.

@williampmcd8548 2 жыл бұрын

The music soundtrack detracts from your presentation 💯

@Reppondinvestments 2 жыл бұрын

Thank you. Agreed. We fixed it in subsequent videos.

@melindagrose9589 2 жыл бұрын

You had question marks around keeping cash in the banks. What do you suggest as an alternative? I have just sold my home and don't want to buy just yet. Is my money safe in the "big banks"?

@Reppondinvestments 2 жыл бұрын

Melinda, I enjoyed talking with you. Thanks.

@ninelr222 2 жыл бұрын

Thank you for the video. Subscribed. I asked my advisor a few daya ago what to do when I am already down in my stocks, on some of them a lot down , and he said if you down up to 8%, sell them, 8% is easy to recover later. If you down more, like down 20%, buy more of that stock. Now that I watched your video... I am not sure the advisor was completely correct. Those that are 20% down, they still can continue on a long road down the hill. Thanks.

@Reppondinvestments 2 жыл бұрын

The issue around what you are discussing is knowing when to get out AND when to get back in. If you don't get both right, you may not like the experience. In other words, it may deliver you more negative results than positive ones.

@ninelr222 2 жыл бұрын

@@Reppondinvestments Yes, exactly. The decision on when you should go out or go in is the most complicated thing to figure out for nonsofisticated retail people like me. Thank you for your reply.

@Reppondinvestments 2 жыл бұрын

I prefer a mathematical methodology that has been validated or tested over a long period of time - to test one's hypothesis during various market conditions. Whatever you use, try to make sure it suits the kind of investor you are - from a risk/reward perspective.

@peterwalker7051 2 жыл бұрын

Buying stocks where the fed has propped up the to big to fail banks is a bad idea, you are buying overvalued stocks of companies that are insolvent at best, only true investment is gold and silver and land. The land provides you with sustainability and resilience for what's to come. , so you can feed your family and love ones.

@SIMPLETRUTHS2012 2 жыл бұрын

And so they are, ESP the tech sector, incl. those with string moats , bal sheets and free cashflo.. NPV's at 8% + risk off is, and willvremain, deadly for at least 3 yrs, if we're lucky. 401k's wiped out, those few who have fixed $ pensions, floating rate meg's, eventual burnout of covid bonuses... reduced consumer demand ... and we are a consumer economy. Social unrest will become worse. Same in EU. Japan even worse, but at least the u have savings. China's population aging faster than ours due to 1 child policy. India has relatively young population w improving productivity but enormous poverty problem. SE Asia, S. America, Central America are only places with young population to support their growth, but have terrible poverty and v. Low human capital. Will be ugly for some time. El-Erian 6/16,"We are in a SECULAR inflation and downturn, NOT a CYCLICAL downturn." Pay heed.

@aledi9721 2 жыл бұрын

Thank you for this highly informative and educational content. when the covid arrived I thought that we would see the damage 2/3 years later and today great economists commenting that we are entering a period of great recession. Also a few days ago, a tweet from Michael J Burry showed his fear for the future. I agree with all of you and with your permission I would translate it into Italian to share it with all my friends. Alex

@Reppondinvestments 2 жыл бұрын

Appreciate your comments and you are welcome to translate it into Italian and have my permission to share it with whomever you like. Thanks for watching and for your generous comments.

@stevechester3504 2 жыл бұрын

Does he predict a Great Depression coming?

@Reppondinvestments 2 жыл бұрын

He does not use the word "depression", but only recession. The difference is 10 consecutive quarters of contraction vs. 2. You might enjoy my upcoming video this coming Tuesday. The material I cover leads me to think at some point we will actually have a true collapse.

@robertsmuggles6871 2 жыл бұрын

Most people dont realise this either - it is awesome - kzfaq.info/get/bejne/gb-Ce5xoypPSnIE.html

@kelbee8974 2 жыл бұрын

New sub here. Great content & easy to understand delivery.

@Reppondinvestments 2 жыл бұрын

Thank you

@acollegekid 2 жыл бұрын

Would LOVE to hear why silver and not silver & gold? Love to hear your thoughts and thanks for this video!!!!! Much needed and you’re 100% dead on!

@Reppondinvestments 2 жыл бұрын

Based on 4000+ years of history, any combination of silver and gold will help protect against the devaluation of the dollar - or any other currency. I prefer silver for various reasons. My primary reason is that it will be easier to barter with smaller denominations (like silver) if we need to barter for the basics of daily necessities. You can search for "gold vs. silver pros cons" and get some other ideas. Thank you for your question.

@samdorchester2524 2 жыл бұрын

I really appreciate your economic review of the current situation. I think inflation has been with us for many years and energy, poor government policies, poor Fed decisions was the tipping point. Now we will see the bottom some day soon. I have been reading and listening to people that say cash is trash and I has some trash. I have over hundred thousand dollars in one CD that I want to take out of the bank in September when it comes due. My plan was to turn some into precious metals and the rest in Cash and wait. If cash is trash what isn’t because everything is double to purchase? I think gold is the only possibility I have. Does anyone else have any suggestions.

@Reppondinvestments 2 жыл бұрын

Well said. I agree. You might like the video I am doing this coming week.

@linatabbaa7666 Жыл бұрын

Thank you for this informative video. I’d be grateful to get some answers: 1) we had to refinance our home( closing a week ago) & get more dept on it to finance our son’s US expensive private university( after loosing hope here in canada), we kept the mortgage variable & rates have already risen 1% since. Should we switch to fixed or should we sell before house prices decline, close debts & rent for now? Buying gold instead. What would Ben do? Thank you sir!

@Reppondinvestments Жыл бұрын

Some good questions here. Too much to handle in brief sounds bites. Can you give me a call to discuss? ben@reppondinvestments.com 406-871-3321 Ben

@craigvoortman3917 2 жыл бұрын

Profound video. Yes we are entering territory similar to the 1970s and the Great Depression. Get out off debt asap and buy pure gold coins (NOT paper gold if you can). You will be most thankful if you do. Great video and solid, meticulous analysis. Great concerns regarding USA 🇺🇸 overpriced stocks, overprinted USA dollar & overvalued USA paper bonds. This pack of cards will tumble within this decade. Sad reality check awaits as the bubble bursts. Buy gold yes buy gold.

@Reppondinvestments 2 жыл бұрын

You said it well

@stevem.7808 2 жыл бұрын

Thank you, Ben. Assuming a recession arrives, demand falls, and inflation decreases, wouldn't that likely cause yields to fall or stabilize thereby increasing bond prices? Or is inflation so out of control that recession or not, drastic measure will be needed to get it under control?

@Reppondinvestments 2 жыл бұрын

Good question. The real answer is that no one really knows. We are in quite new uncharted territory. I am reading a lot of information from the sources i use that are saying inflation is going to be with us for a long time because the supply chain is so badly broken all over the world. If this is the case, it will likely be different from the late 1970s where is went way up and came down more quickly. I agree that we are first experiencing inflation and that will likely be followed by deflation. Bond yields may drop in that environment - hence bond prices rising. In my opinion, bonds (and traditional 60/40 portfolios are likely going to experience a lot of damage yet to come. The Fed has painted themselves in a corner and I cannot see how they can fix this mess without causing a terrible crash. I wish I had better news.

@frankbliss2924 2 жыл бұрын

@@Reppondinvestments have you compared the increasing inflation and factors driving it to other counties who devalued their currency something like we've been doing in the US since 2009, to suggest the inflation of goods and services may surpass the drop or crash of assets and actually make them worth more in terms of dollar value? Not as a direct comparison for many reasons but Venezuela, Zimbabwe, Turkey in present day... off the top of my head, and of course there are more, possibly better examples of these frivilously spending governments... Do you think for the first few years after heavy inflation (13% real inflation as Powell said and expected for 2 years then predicted 5-6% for another two years before normalizing in 2024/5) they were facing from the trillions the government was printing and "borrowing" from their future earnings as our gov / FED has been doing for over a decade (now 30T "national debt" opposed to 10T in 2007ish) that those citizens also thought they were "in a bubble" that was "getting ready to pop" as their governments kept printing money and costs kept rising? Again as seen currently in Turkey. Sorry if that was hard to follow, related facts put in ( ) for emphasis, skip when reading for clarity on the question. At what point do you suppose the government will cut back the spending which has increased over 10x the national average again since 2009. 🤔 If currency is devalued 10x by "inflation" or money printing, calling a cat a cat, doesn't any asset become more valuable than it was, even at the "over valued" peak by multiple times to compensate the change? A 1000 dollar investment becomes 10,000 dollars over that period of time and inflation, usually in multiple years... but to my understanding has been rapidly accelerating. Isn't that essentially how the stock market works and has always worked? Like they say, if you can keep your money in the market 20 years it will be worth more. But as we know, so will goods and services. The only loser is cash and no one can accurately "time the markets" other than our politicians. Just a few thoughts.

@Reppondinvestments 2 жыл бұрын

No I have not done this kind of comparison or analysis. What I do know is that every country I have looked at there is huge amounts of excess printed money with nothing behind it PLUS huge amounts of debt everywhere. My sense is that if the US comes down (or any other major country), we are all likely to come down together.

@techninja3001 2 жыл бұрын

Not with the war in Ukraine hitting oil, gas, wheat, sunflower oil, fertilizer, metals… supply and deteriorating demographics impacting available investible capital.

@ewlinitis 2 жыл бұрын

@@Reppondinvestments 2 important days this week that can say a lot to what's going to happen up ahead. Tomorrow the FEDs will be speaking about crypto and I believe Friday the CPI comes out or something along those lines. Let's keep fingers crossed. So far there all in on Bitcoin and it seems the alt coins are trembling

@richardratcliffe3060 2 жыл бұрын

great video and thoughts. Looks like there is no where to hide

@Reppondinvestments 2 жыл бұрын

Thank you. I agree. Not much place to hide except cash. Two problems with that however. 1) Real inflation is 16.7% with everything added back in. 2) At some point the market will go back up. The easy money is made when people least want to get back in. How do you determine that? We use a tactical method of investing. This means we try to get out early in a downturn and get back in the early phase of a new up-trending market. Not perfect, but we have been pretty successful with this methodology so far. But, you are right. Not much of a place to hide.

@stevesanders3992 2 жыл бұрын

Yes the only thing I can think of is get some land that can grow food?

@jkuntz67 2 жыл бұрын

Nice insight, and well explained thank a lot....

@Reppondinvestments 2 жыл бұрын

Thank you.

@andrelizotte9912 2 жыл бұрын

great wrap up of the situation. not easy to find where to be at that time. 100% agree of all, thanks

@Reppondinvestments 2 жыл бұрын

Thank you so much for your kind words.

@Chris-ly8wt 2 жыл бұрын

I've watched this video twice and now on my third view as I'm trying to find something to disagree with. Well done sir!

@Reppondinvestments 2 жыл бұрын

Thank you so much, Chris. What an amazing compliment.

@WallStreetLogyc 2 жыл бұрын

This is a great video! I appreciate your wisdom on this! You have a new subscriber in me, because I love real and honest information and this is prime example of that! Thanks again!

@Reppondinvestments 2 жыл бұрын

Chris, thanks for watching and for your generous comments.

@WallStreetLogyc 2 жыл бұрын

You’re welcome

@iaindennis3321 2 жыл бұрын

Economic downturns are painful, but that pain serves a very useful purpose - it lets people know what is going wrong and points to areas that need to be fixed.

@Reppondinvestments 2 жыл бұрын

True. However, there can be a lot of damage along the way for people's jobs and finances. It does remind us that we should stay cautious in our investing and not allow greed to come into our thinking and decisions.

@billb4567 2 жыл бұрын

Very interesting and informative, thank you.

@Reppondinvestments 2 жыл бұрын

Appreciate your kind words.

@julietao2554 2 жыл бұрын

I really appreciate this well-made video. There is one observation to point out, that in 1929, there was no 401k or other retirement money steadily flowing into stock market like today. Will the steady flow of the money going to the stock market helps?

@Reppondinvestments 2 жыл бұрын

Very true. There are a few big differences between today and 1929 - that being one of them. There have been many crashes. The ones I think are closest to today are 1973-74 and 1979-82. But they all come down because the prices are too high and a lot of air needs to come out of the balloon. Thanks for your good question.

@julietao2554 2 жыл бұрын

@@Reppondinvestments Thank you Sir

@ziggyc4474 2 жыл бұрын

@@Reppondinvestments so on crashes are just corrections of all Markets saying that 4 to 5 yrs on average to get better again or maybe the at most 8 yrs ,how long did the great depression run for ?

@Reppondinvestments 2 жыл бұрын

I looked up market crashes going back to 1800. I found that there have been about 22 crashes (approximately). This means that on average, there is a crash about every 10 years. The Great Depression lasted from about 1929 to 1941. It took about 25 years for the market to get back to where it started in 1929.

@julietao2554 2 жыл бұрын

@@Reppondinvestments I also believe economic cycles. However there are differences between now and then: 1. Unprecedented amount of money being printed, so it could be a lots of money waiting on the sidelines 2. US as the most powerful country in the world, so it may have more ways to get resources from the rest of the world

@jangyman 2 жыл бұрын

The trick is knowing where that bottom is, and being ready when it comes.

@Reppondinvestments 2 жыл бұрын

Very true - and hard for most people to do.

@Chris-ol9tc 2 жыл бұрын

you are the first channel that has the same focus on solutions then on the problem. ususally they talk 99% how bad it will be and 1% what you can do

@Reppondinvestments 2 жыл бұрын

Thank you.

@evolassunglasses4673 2 жыл бұрын

Subbed. What's the bigger risk, deflation or hypa inflation. Best wishes from England.

@Reppondinvestments 2 жыл бұрын

Thank you for watching and subscribing. VERY good question. I think both deflation AND hyper-inflation are huge risks. This is my personal belief based on historical patterns. I think we will have both - at different times. I think we will first have high inflation (not sure about hyper). Then, when they have to kill it, that will likely send us into a deep and prolonged recession (deflation). Thanks again.

@Ok-551 2 жыл бұрын

I’m a retired options market maker and I’ve been waiting for this for 30 yrs. The excess has all been created by politics. PPP Loans Covid relief. Pure insanity considering the disruption in the global supply chain. The mkt is losing 50% from high and staying down this time. 3-5 yrs.

@Reppondinvestments 2 жыл бұрын

That is entirely possible. Each bear market is a bit different.

@Ok-551 2 жыл бұрын

@@Reppondinvestments it will trade in brackets on the way down. They’ll be selling opportunities. But I bet we hit the pre Covid highs first and then Possibly Covid lows before I’d buy anything.

@pistopitpit 2 жыл бұрын

This would be fantastic news for those who DCA.

@Nick-th1kx 2 жыл бұрын

Luckily when the market crashes firms must close their positions, including short positions, like on AMC and GME : retail owns 90% of the amc float according to amcs Adam Aaron and we aren’t selling cheap btw

@Reppondinvestments 2 жыл бұрын

Thanks for the input.

@KG-we6by 2 жыл бұрын

Yea but they’ll close those positions at profit when it crashes

@techninja3001 2 жыл бұрын

That’s not true at all!

@Nicole-tp3fn 2 жыл бұрын

Great post Nick, in both these as well, it’s our best hedge!

@douglaskim6611 Жыл бұрын

Thank youvery much for your very informative and precise explanation.

@Reppondinvestments Жыл бұрын

Glad it was helpful!

@mrmiss8062 2 жыл бұрын

Thank you for the insights.

@Reppondinvestments 2 жыл бұрын

My pleasure!

@Cricket950 2 жыл бұрын

What do you think about investing in oil stocks? Winter will be upon us in a few months.

@ryanbaileyboxing 2 жыл бұрын

Good idea

@Reppondinvestments 2 жыл бұрын

Sorry but I don't work with individual stocks. Oil stocks (energy sector) are volatile and can go way up and come way down. Tend to be non-correlated with other equities. If I were to buy something like this, I would wait until it got cheap.

@fenrirgg 2 жыл бұрын

Is winter good for oil? I feel like winter is good for gas, not oil.

@jamesmurphy9772 2 жыл бұрын

Successful people don't become that way overnight. What most people see at a glance- wealth, a great career, purpose-is the result of hard work and hustle over time. I pray that anyone who reads this will be successful in life..

@Reppondinvestments 2 жыл бұрын

Well said,

@ninoellison7793 2 жыл бұрын

Brilliant and enlightening analysis. One quick question. In terms of diversifying from a place of having all assets being cash on hand and now wanting to buy into gold & silver, what proportions of these three would you recommend for what’s coming?? Many thanks in advance!

@Reppondinvestments 2 жыл бұрын

Great question. First of all, I don't look at gold and silver as investments. I see them as an insurance policy against the decline and devaluation of our paper currency. I actually see them as a means to barter if we revert to a barter type economy. Therefore, my preference is silver since that will likely be better for my purposes. I recommend Jim Rickards' book The Death of Money.

@ninoellison7793 2 жыл бұрын

@@Reppondinvestments Sincere thanks for your reply and clear explanation. It helps enormously and I definitely will look into ‘The Death of Money’. Thank you for the recommendation, it’s most appreciated!

@robbiecornes7312 2 жыл бұрын

Thanks for the information!

@Reppondinvestments 2 жыл бұрын

You are welcome

@_Citizen_K 2 жыл бұрын

Hi Ben, thank you so much for your informative videos. I'm just getting my head around the concept of the stock market and the pending recession. I'm a novice, to say the least. QUESTION: when you talk about selling instead of buying (housing) are you talking about investment real estate or primary residence. Should someone like myself (who owns their house and lives in it i.e. has a $300K mortgage) but could sell it next week for $1.2 million (current market value) that would mean I'd have $900K in cash. Would I be better off renting over the next 18 months to two years and then buying once the housing market has died down? Hope that makes sense. Thank you for your time. Katrin (Australia)

@Reppondinvestments 2 жыл бұрын

This is a conundrum. You do have to live somewhere. You can get your equity out of your home, but then you have to rent somewhere to live. If you are in a place where you can do that, at some point we will get to the other end of the cycle. Recognizing a market top in stocks, bonds or real estate is hard. Recognizing a bottom is much easier. I say it this way. When there are For Sale signs everywhere, seemingly all sellers and very few buyers, that is a great time to come in with cash and strike a deal. Thanks for your good question.

@damiandouglas5147 Жыл бұрын

@@Reppondinvestments I'm in Australia as well Are we different given our resources based economy? Will our sharemarket be more robust as dominated by resources?

@simonseverino 2 жыл бұрын

"I am getting myself a bicycle" - Love this!

@Reppondinvestments 2 жыл бұрын

Thanks. I will mention this on next week's video. A client of mine reached out to me when he watched the video. He has a bicycle that he no longer needs. I am buying that from him. Small world. As you might suspect, it is an insurance policy. :-)

@lauraleich5741 2 жыл бұрын

I bought a bicycle. Recently.. good investment

@Reppondinvestments 2 жыл бұрын

Thank you, Laura. I'm excited to get mine.

@CoffeeWithFred 2 жыл бұрын

Great information! Thank you!

@Reppondinvestments 2 жыл бұрын

Glad it was helpful!

@frankuratani3397 2 жыл бұрын

Thanks Ben. Great video.

@Reppondinvestments 2 жыл бұрын

Thank you.

@DrunkenXiGinPing 2 жыл бұрын

This is why I am shorting the heck out of the markets ! It will come and people will cry foul ! But , the laws of nature always win out over people’s greed !

@Reppondinvestments 2 жыл бұрын

You and I are in agreement that this whole thing is coming down. As a fiduciary advisor, it would not be prudent for me to short, but I agree with your thinking.

@paulaballetdancer4432 2 жыл бұрын

And the slope of that line will be much steeper this time.

@frankjones4357 2 жыл бұрын

Agreed! Predominantly, Greed drives longs and Fear drives shorts. Since IMHO Fear is more powerful in Volume and Velocity, most of my action is on the short side.

@Reppondinvestments 2 жыл бұрын

You make a good point. Shorting is risky, but if a person can handle that amount of volatility and risk, in general that could potentially work out well in times like this.

@lamarravery4094 2 жыл бұрын

@@Reppondinvestments What ticker symbol do you use to short the Dow?

@YakMotley 2 жыл бұрын

Good video! I totally disagree with you about Bitcoin though. It is a totally different asset.

@Reppondinvestments 2 жыл бұрын

Thank you.

@mebigota8821 2 жыл бұрын

The u.s. constitution says only the government can create money, they can outlaw Bitcoin any time they want.

@antpoo 2 жыл бұрын

Yeah it’s pure speculative

@lavernemorrowcarter4483 Жыл бұрын

This give clarity and confirmation for what my husband I have been seeing and feeling. Thanks!

@Reppondinvestments Жыл бұрын

Thank you.

@ryderansell7248 2 жыл бұрын

This was the most honest advertisement I’ve ever watched. I think I’d like to live in a world where men pitched their services in the way you do.

@Reppondinvestments 2 жыл бұрын

Thank you. I try to stay away from hype and also do not want this to be a commercial. If people reach out to me and want me to help them with their investments, I am glad to have that conversation.

@mohamedali9495 2 жыл бұрын

I am so glad that we withstood the pressure from people who wanted us to buy the house when interest rates were law. We are long time renters and it’s worked so far. We might buy a house after the real estate market is in the bottom.

@Reppondinvestments 2 жыл бұрын

Hope things work out for you.

@mohamedali9495 2 жыл бұрын

@@Reppondinvestments Will it ever be affordable for young Millenials to buy a home? It feels like I'm living through the end of the American empire.

@Reppondinvestments 2 жыл бұрын

I hate to see this. It is hard to image that the USA will return to what we once were.

@harryday62 2 жыл бұрын

The quote you mention from Buffett about losing half your money is from his 2018 shareholders letter. He says that it could be possible " In the future." You took it completely out of context to support your theory. If that is what you have to do it tells me your theory is 100% conjecture. You posted basically the same "the market is overvalued and you just don't see the signs but I do" video in 2017 with another misleading Buffett quote to support it.

@Reppondinvestments 2 жыл бұрын

Thanks for your clarification. You are correct that my Buffett quote related to his 2018 letter to shareholders. I made a mistake in my quote. I was quoting from an article that was entitled something like Warren Buffett says get ready to lose half your money. That was not exactly what Buffett said. The point of the article was to point out that Buffett lost about half of his money (via Berkshire Hathaway) four different times. The author nor I exactly quoted Buffett exactly and I should have made that distinction. I apologize for that. However, I do think that I quoted the other gentlemen correctly - Jim Rogers, Ray Dalio and Jeremy Grantham. I want to use quotes correctly and again apologize for not being more precise in the Buffett quote. The bigger point I was making was that there is a divergence in thinking from these very smart investment managers and the typical advice given from financial advisors. Thanks for watching.

@jp57059 2 жыл бұрын

Do you have any statistics on what effect the 1929 and 2000 crashes had on the restaurant industry? I am in the business and can't find much of any research on the topic. During the pandemic, some restaurants thrived because of take out and delivery. I wonder what would happen to the industry across the board if we have yet another crash. Thank you.

@Reppondinvestments 2 жыл бұрын

I've not seen any data on this. However, my business mind works like this. Try to be in an area where there is likely to be higher demand. Not high end meals. No debt. Stock up on the foods that are not perishable.

@txkevin3467 2 жыл бұрын

Thank you for this excellent video. I have a real problem with seeing the problem in the market, telling people about the problems in the market but for some odd reason, staying IN the market far too long when I know its likely to go down. It is exactly like your analogy....."The music is playing so I have to dance". I have not seen such a perfect storm....and a self created storm, in my lifetime.

@Reppondinvestments 2 жыл бұрын

Point well made.

@daebak7370 2 жыл бұрын

The perfect storm was engineered.

@Reppondinvestments 2 жыл бұрын

Probably.

@miguelmachado3259 2 жыл бұрын

"Victory over Hitler" ... Let me correct it for you. For which the USSR people carried the overwhelmingly part of the burden that that civilisational crossroad has imposed to the humanity. And here we are again understating the lessons of that human catastrophe...

@Reppondinvestments 2 жыл бұрын

Agree 100%. Thank you for your comment.

@miguelmachado3259 2 жыл бұрын

@@Reppondinvestments It is imperative to get these things correctly. Or else we contribute to the misunderstandings of History ...

@gazzarockm0273 2 жыл бұрын

Since the crash of 1929, when inflation was rampant, the cause was determined to be too much easy credit. ergo, solution to inflation was to jack interest rates to reduce buying power. This has been repeated several times, despite causing mini depressions. But, what if the causality this time is different? It may well be that pushing interest rates at this time will actually add to inflation. I'm sorry, but I disagree that in this situation, the same old tired responses will work. It really represents lack of imagination or deeper understanding. Also, tbh, I feel that borrowing stocks in order to short a stock should be illegal. Certainly, the practice should be suspended for all stocks in times of inflationary and negative emotional pressure - as it was just for banks in 2008..

@Reppondinvestments 2 жыл бұрын

Good points. There are two primary antidotes to inflation: Raise interest rates and sell assets on the Fed's balance sheet (treasuries and mortgage backed securities). Any combination of these - if aggressively applied - will cause a crash of the economy (and stocks, bonds and real estate) - according to the experts that I follow. The Fed has no alternative but to do some combination of these two. I think we have pretty bleak economic times ahead. I also dislike shorting stocks and do not do it at all personally or in client accounts. Another thing you did not mention is the trillions and trillions of dollars in derivatives. That is also adding to the bubble type atmosphere. Thanks for watching and for your comments.

@jimbobarooney2861 2 жыл бұрын

Gibson's Paradox

@rwarren2007 2 жыл бұрын

Excellent. Thank you.

@Reppondinvestments 2 жыл бұрын

You are welcome.

@seannotaro473 2 жыл бұрын

Excellent analysis. The charts don't lie. Fantastic

@Reppondinvestments 2 жыл бұрын

Thank you, Sean.

@JazzyGinger1 2 жыл бұрын

God loves you so much that He sent His Holy Son Jesus from heaven to earth, to be born of a virgin, to grow up and die on a cross for our sins, and to be put into a tomb 3 days and rise from the dead the third day, and He (Jesus) went back up to heaven. We must receive Sinless Jesus sincerely to be God's child(John 1:12).After we get saved by grace through faith in Christ, if we truly love the Lord Jesus Christ, then we will obey Jesus(John 14:15). Mark 1:15 "And saying, the time is fulfilled, and the kingdom of God is at hand: Repent ye, and believe the gospel." Jesus said in John 14:15 "If you love Me, keep My commandments. "There's a real hell. It says in Revelation 21:8 "But for the cowardly, & unbelieving, and abominable, and murderers, & immoral persons sorcerers & idolaters and all liars, their part will be in the lake that burns with fire & brimstone..." Please sincerely receive Holy Jesus and put your true faith and trust in Him today and please repent. Will you have a Real encounter with Holy Lord Jesus and stay in a Genuine relationship with Him daily please?

@Reppondinvestments 2 жыл бұрын

Thank you. I agree. I am a Jesus believer and follower.

@marlonmanuzon4503 2 жыл бұрын

Amen...tribulation period coming... God Bless both of you....

@CB-nd9ki 2 жыл бұрын

What does this fantasy have to do with the market?

@caroleevandyk5544 2 жыл бұрын

Would you please tell me what possible reason God would have for bringing billions of people into existence knowing beforehand that they would be rebellious and end up suffering forever? Why would God have such a cruel and pointless plan as that?

@Reppondinvestments 2 жыл бұрын

Very good question. The only answer I have is that he did not want to have robots, but humans with a free will to choose between good and evil.

@alicia_nicole 2 жыл бұрын

Any suggestions for a fuel back up plan? Buy several gas cans and store that way? How long is gas good sitting in those cans? I use diesel.

@Reppondinvestments 2 жыл бұрын

Gasoline breaks down and cannot be stored for long periods of time. Propane can. My backup plan is a wood stove I can cook on and lots and lots of wood.

@lemichaeldotson3254 2 жыл бұрын

Thanks for the information

@Reppondinvestments 2 жыл бұрын

You are welcome.

@ivanbernal2892 2 жыл бұрын

where can we buy silver please explain your recommendations how and where according to our. area or stocks give us insight i appreciate this channel

@Reppondinvestments 2 жыл бұрын

Ivan, I no longer live in the area where I bought silver over the years. If I were to add to my position today, I would buy it from my son, who I completely trust to guide me correctly. He also has great prices. Here is his email address if you want to contact him. preston.reppond@gmail.com For stock market investing, you might like our extremely conservative approach - which we use for cautious investors. If you email me at ben@reppondinvestments.com I will send you some information that might be helpful. Ben

@nigeljohnson6347 2 жыл бұрын

Very helpful thank you

@Reppondinvestments 2 жыл бұрын

You're welcome!

@JASHTONR 2 жыл бұрын

QUESTION ABOUT SILVER: Are you saying we should consider investing in silver or owning and holding physical bars and coins? Thank you so much for this sobering video.

@Reppondinvestments 2 жыл бұрын

I own physical silver - bullion. But there are other options - bars, coins, gold, etc. I do not recommend the ETFs GLD, SLV or something like that. I prefer the physical asset.

@JASHTONR 2 жыл бұрын

@@Reppondinvestments Thank you so much. It amazes me how few views this video has.

@Reppondinvestments 2 жыл бұрын

Views have now picked up - for which I am grateful.

@jlambc12 2 жыл бұрын

Here we are, two weeks on..6/13/2022 .Dow Jones Industrial Average −876.05 (2.79%)today

@EricsIncognitoAccount 2 жыл бұрын

Real nice presentation. The title was a little click baity but you made it worthwhile.

@Reppondinvestments 2 жыл бұрын

Thank you. And thanks for watching.

@bjjsilva32 2 жыл бұрын

Excellent content! But i do have a question. You say buy silver, but what about gold?

@Reppondinvestments 2 жыл бұрын

Nothing wrong with gold. I prefer silver because I believe it will be easier to barter with for smaller ticket items if we ever get to a barter economy. Of course, I hope I never need it.

@Jefftopgun 2 жыл бұрын

So thoughts on seeing inflation 'print' above 10% at the same time 'official' unemployment print over 10 as well?

@Reppondinvestments 2 жыл бұрын

Government data on inflation says it is at 8.3%. REAL inflation is at 16.7% according to Shadowstats.com. This is when everything is added back in that the government removes from their calculation. Hence, inflation is already above 10%. I personally believe unemployment will go above 10% as well. May take 2-3 years as all this excess gets wrung out of the system.

@GMGains 2 жыл бұрын

Thank you Ben.

@Reppondinvestments 2 жыл бұрын

You are welcome.

@flir67man84 2 жыл бұрын

I like your old school monogramed dress shirt.. hard to find today.. with the detail..

@Reppondinvestments 2 жыл бұрын

Thanks. I guess I show how old school I am.

@jamesmary8938 2 жыл бұрын

Thank you Ben for your thoroughness. For the present, if I want to let time pass before reinvesting in stocks, what is your thinking on short term inflation protected bonds?

@Reppondinvestments 2 жыл бұрын

In the short run, TIPS have a good ROR.

@pixelgodsquad4942 2 жыл бұрын

Great Information Thanks

@Reppondinvestments 2 жыл бұрын

You are welcome.

@ziv2liv 2 жыл бұрын

You rightfully noted that real estate is regional, and although in traditional terms home sales should go down due to rising interest rates and decline in purchase affordability, the rental market is booming (People have to live somewhere) and there is still shortage of housing in the country. Big rental companies still buying SFR for cash cause the rental market is still lucrative. Even if the rental market slows down due to rent affordability, cash buyers like me, can always make a deal with the renters substantially reduce rent and still keep afloat.

@Reppondinvestments 2 жыл бұрын

Point well made. Thank you.

@stockmarketfever5329 2 жыл бұрын

Ben Reppond and Community, is there ANY chance that the Fed's big rate hikes and commitment to follow with more might be enough to deflate the economy just enough to avoid a recession, or have a very mild one?

@Reppondinvestments 2 жыл бұрын

It appears that is what their hope is. They are calling that "a soft landing". I call it wishful thinking. They have created a huge problem for all of us. It will be painful to get out of - IMO.

@shaunmichael0585 2 жыл бұрын

Thank you for this. This is a very good depiction. I agree with everything you are saying. I have been in the same camp for over a year. However I am curious on your thoughts of alot of this already being priced into the current decline?

@Reppondinvestments 2 жыл бұрын

Thanks very much for your generous comment. Perhaps some of this IS priced in. But I suspect some is not.

@Abel_Girma91 2 жыл бұрын

What is the best online company to buy gold from?

@Reppondinvestments 2 жыл бұрын

I have always bought from local companies. I caution people against buying from those advertising on the Internet. Some have been scammed. Today, I would buy from my son, Preston, if I bought more. He works for a brick and mortar company and I know they have good prices - and I trust him. Let me know if you want his contact info and I will send it to you. Could you text me at 406-871-3321

@LottoForFun 2 жыл бұрын

Very informative!

@Reppondinvestments 2 жыл бұрын

Thank you.

@ado3616 2 жыл бұрын

With what is happening now, what is your opinion of the simple dollar cost average investment strategy? And what is your opinion of index funds as we proceed?

@Reppondinvestments 2 жыл бұрын

If a person is younger without too much at stake, a dollar cost averaging approach might make sense. However, as a person gets older and has more assets, this could become very costly. If you want to contact me, we can discuss your specifics and I can give you a more specific answer. ben@reppondinvestments.com 406-871-3321 Ben

@Ingrid_Abrams 2 жыл бұрын

Real estate sell not buy? Where are you supposed to live? What about my home that has 3% mortgage and is only $1k month? Also, re: the buy and sell portfolios- what are we supp to do with our IRA accounts? I only have my IRA in three funds: VBIAX, VUSXX (for cash) and VGSLX is that not good?

@Reppondinvestments 2 жыл бұрын

I only can give specific financial advice to my clients based on regulations. However, I can speak of some general concepts that make sense to me. When you have a home with a mortgage and a lot of equity, you have to ask yourself the question, "Am I OK with where I am if the value of my home goes down a lot and quite a bit of that equity disappears?" If you are, then stay the course. Your cost of living there is a fixed rate mortgage. If not, then you need to explore the options for renting. It is a tradeoff that a person has to assess for themselves, their lifestyle and goals. Two of the three funds you have are fully exposed to the market. I am a fiduciary advisor and manage money for my clients using our mathematical methods. They are designed to get out of the market (largely) when it starts to take on risk. And to be fully invested when market risk is lower. This means that we will be out of the market about 30% of the time. Right now, we are out of the market. We are very pleased with our rate of return and our risk-adjusted rate of return. It is more of an active management approach - very different from what you are now doing. If this interests you, you can email me at ben@reppondinvestments.com and I will send you some information to review. Thanks for your questions. Ben

@finstarusa Жыл бұрын

Excellent

@Reppondinvestments Жыл бұрын

Thanks

@stevenfields4422 2 жыл бұрын

I have 7 single family rentals That are all paid for My house is paid for And all of our vehicles are a paid for So my quetion for u is Should I move my cash out of banks Into a safe or leave the cash I have in the bank possible several hundred thousand Ive thought about selling some of my rentals to gather up money for when things get really cheap bit I haven't because what if they dont I could never repalce them at current prices Any advice or insite as to what u would do if u were me would be appreciated

@Reppondinvestments 2 жыл бұрын

I keep enough money in my bank to function. I also like having physical cash and silver outside of the system as a Plan B. My goal is to strike a balance. I am a fiduciary advisor and manage client money. I am completely independent. I do not follow the traditional approach. Feel free to reach out to me if you want to talk about your situation. Ben 406-871-3321 ben@reppondinvestments.com

@losinglouie 2 жыл бұрын

I hold cash, shorts, and VXX That I trade. But presently, I have half my money in 2 to 5 year treasury and agency notes. To protect myself, I have laddered them and intend to hold to maturity. This is generating 2 to 4% returns. How do you like this strategy as a way to dog paddle to the bottom of this market before taking action.? Great video, thank you very much.

@Reppondinvestments 2 жыл бұрын

I respect what you are doing. But personally do not see the value in treasuries at these prices. Inflation will eat up the buying power of yields. Cash, shorts and trading VXX makes more sense. Thanks for watching and for your comments.

@buongiorno4you 2 жыл бұрын

Thank you for your very formative presentation. What would you advice a young professional in the tech industry who keeps most of their income in the bank?

@Reppondinvestments 2 жыл бұрын

I do three things. I manage money tactically. That is, I have a methodology designed to get me out of the market during periods of increasing risk - and to invest in the best performing index when conditions are more favorable. 2) I buy silver to protect against the decline of the dollar - and perhaps the eventual collapse of the dollar. i think of this as an insurance policy and assets I can barter with if it ever comes to that.

@karinkoralek648 2 жыл бұрын

Is it advisable then to hold onto my stocks and the bonds to maturity? I am a healthy 70 year old and am holding mid term bonds.