Tried this strategy for 1 month. Had only 3 negative days. Most days I was 50+ positive at a 500 bankroll with .25 Kelly Calculator tolerance. Definitely a solid strategy. Increased my bankroll to 1000 and .33.
@BillyC24 Жыл бұрын
Glad to hear it's working for you!
@popularfraziers974911 ай бұрын
Then why did you stop
@fatesgates8393 Жыл бұрын
You’re the most transparent breaking down bankroll bets, vig, & positive ev. Thanks.
@seraphimsars9 ай бұрын
I had a really bad day and could not insert what happened but watching this video cleared things up
@louisharrison65932 ай бұрын
First let me say that if anybody on the fence about using this tool because of the cost, dont be..it is well worth the investment and will pay for itself..secondly, the strategy used in this video is a great strategy..only changes i PERSONALLY would make is that i will leave all the recommended settings the same except for the min/max odds..i would change the min to -250 and the max to +135 for a little cushion and i have been profitable
@BillyC242 ай бұрын
I’m so happy that things are working out well for you Louis! Glad you’ve been able to turn it into a wonderful side hustle.
@philipumanoff448 Жыл бұрын
Good video! I’m just gonna say this, as a +EV bettor I think you can see greater returns if you remove that 1U limit you put on yourself especially if you’re betting with a fairly high expected win probability. The sportsbooks are already limiting you why would you put limits on yourself? When the line is good you have to take full advantage! I’ve been using 0.5 Kelly and have had great results. Best of luck to you
@gatordontplay816111 ай бұрын
Great content in this video, it cleared up the few questions I had regarding the VIG. Your breakdown that was scrolling across the bottom of the screen was perfect to help understand units and put them into perspective. I wrote mine out to do something similar! Appreciate the info.
@stevesaintz6295 Жыл бұрын
You should throw a headliner when you hit a million in stakes. That should be an interesting recap story
@davec4700Ай бұрын
Great stuff for us rookies! Thanks Billy C
@BillyC24Ай бұрын
I’m glad you found value in it! Any questions never hesitate to ask.
@joeyrivaldo5239 Жыл бұрын
Good shit man! I'll be reaching out to you in a few weeks to help get started!
@edson8977 ай бұрын
Great video Billy C. I'm going to start implementing this strategy ASAP!
@BillyC247 ай бұрын
I'm so glad it was helpful for you. Keep me in the loop on how it goes the next few weeks. If you have any questions don't hesitate to reach out!
@imprintz8 ай бұрын
This is exactly the video i needed. Thank you for being so helpful!
@BillyC248 ай бұрын
That’s what I’m here for! Any questions just ask, glad to help.
@danielschwartz1228 Жыл бұрын
Good video and good advice. Something I'll look forward to trying.
@RJMartinez10 ай бұрын
Great video man! Thank you for sharing this🔥🙌🏼
@infuh209 Жыл бұрын
this is super helpful thank you bro
@OG-xw2np9 ай бұрын
Hey, great video! I'm just wondering when choosing your pick after looking at the no-vig odds. You pick over?
@BillyC249 ай бұрын
Hey OG, I appreciate the kind words! So if the “no-vig fair odds” is for let’s say Chicago Bulls Moneyline is 50% so that means the fair odds is +100 so if a book like Fan Duel is offering us +115 and every other book is offering -105 I’m placing the bet on Bulls ML at FD because we’re getting value with the odds we’re getting compared to what the fair price. It’s the exact same if you bought a case of Pepsi for $2 when everyone else is selling it for $7 you’re getting value for your money.
@ognightrider873010 ай бұрын
Thank you
@jordanhampton112311 ай бұрын
High school math teacher (former math major) here. I am so so interested in +EV and arbs and have studied it a ton. Resources like yourself are a blessing Question about the bet amount tho. I understand all the math behind it except that. Why would you not place a full unit on each bet regardless of odds as long as it’s in the parameters you want for no vig fair odds? Thanks!
@BillyC2411 ай бұрын
Appreciate the kind words Jordan, so I technically don’t follow Positive EV with this betting strategy. I do not place a full unit because I base my unit wager amount solely off of the win percentage so I prefer to bet less when it is a heavier underdog. Putting a full unit down on any play within your parameters isn’t something I have thought about but could definitely be worth a try.
@mattnull94797 ай бұрын
Great video. Keep them coming!
@BillyC247 ай бұрын
Thank you! Be on the lookout for more!
@brado09 Жыл бұрын
Great stuff! Are you only wagering on sites where you can actually meet the targeted wager amount (based on no-vig odds)? Meaning, if there's a play at -110 so you'd wager 1 unit, but you're limited and could only bet half 0.5 units, do you still make that bet?
@BillyC24 Жыл бұрын
No, I usually won’t place a bet if it’s under $20 but I bet whatever the book will allow me. Once you’re profitable you’ll see this happen. It messes up the betting strategy but it’s an unfair playing field so we make do with what we have.
@pomelojay51096 ай бұрын
hi, I think your strategy is insightful, I just wonder could you maybe give some more explanation or logic behind this particular bet sizing strategy, like why do you think it could possibly work for the lone term?
@BillyC246 ай бұрын
I'm glad you found it insightful! My logic is that the plays I'm grabbing already have an edge due to the software I am using to find them. I then go off of what the actual fair win % is so I have more confidence in plays that have a 53% of winning compared to 43%. I want to wager more of my money on plays that have a higher chance of winning. While over the course of the long run taking the higher EV% plays should work out for a higher ROI I believe that will cause you more violent swings. Essentially there are two ways to get to your destination and I am choosing to go the longer way with an easier road than the shorter way that could be more turbulent.
@jonathanamdahl2112 Жыл бұрын
Fantastic video, this really helped clear up questions I had. Perhaps could you make a video explaining how you avoid getting banned and do you sign up for all sportsbooks or how do you work with the books you have?
@BillyC24 Жыл бұрын
Hey Jonathan, I would be more than happy to! Appreciate the idea and I'll get in the lab and start cooking.
@xyzelite4 ай бұрын
These videos are amazing!
@BillyC244 ай бұрын
Thank you I really appreciate that!
@andrewmcgaha90656 ай бұрын
Awesome video! I would like to start using a similar Positive EV betting strategy, but I live in Florida, so my access to sports books is limited. What would you do in my situation?
@BillyC246 ай бұрын
How’s many books do you currently have? You can start doing this with just two or three books. I understand you only have Hard Rock right now. If you are interested in any offshore books, shoot me an email and I will be happy to walk you through the process. Billcollins88@yahoo.com
@Documentationz2 ай бұрын
Any thoughts on trying this strategy present day? I’m considering trying it with a very small bankroll to start out
@BillyC242 ай бұрын
Still works present day. If you have any questions, never hesitate to reach out.
@levarosales82709 ай бұрын
Very easy to understand great vid mate. Just wanting to know what style of betting you did though. Was it a fixed bet you did meaning 2,3,4, or 5 leg bets every time?
@BillyC249 ай бұрын
Thank you, I appreciate it! These are all straight wagers no parlays. You obviously can parlay these plays together but each play I bet separately.
@levarosales82709 ай бұрын
@@BillyC24 what platform do you use that lets you take straight bets for everything? wanted to use it haha
@BillyC249 ай бұрын
So every Sportsbook here in the US you can make a straight wager. So on Fan Duel if I bet on Arsenal Moneyline that’s a straight bet. Where as if I bet on Arsenal Moneyline and Chelsea Moneyline then that’s a two leg parlay. What Sportsbooks do you have access to?
@levarosales82709 ай бұрын
@@BillyC24 awesome! one more question, odds jam is essentially giving us plays with an edge and that’s awesome. Say I were to take all plays that have a “45%” chance of winning. Wouldn’t I eventually be profitable in the long run?
@BillyC249 ай бұрын
You would because you’re taking plays that have 45% chance of winning but the actual odds you’re getting is much better than that. So 45% is +122 American or 1.22 fraction odds or 2.22 decimal whatever odds you’re familiar with. The big key is you’re getting the play at say +130 or +135 so you’re always getting paid out more than what you actually should be. That little edge is what adds over over the course of 1,000 plus bets
@iq400_ Жыл бұрын
Hi Billy, love your video.. really great content.. btw how can i get that excel sheets for the positive EV?
@BillyC24 Жыл бұрын
Shoot me an email and I'll send it your way.....billcollins88@yahoo.com
@iq400_ Жыл бұрын
@@BillyC24 hi thanks for reply Bill, already sent you an email.. Just wondering, do we need to subscribe monthly plan in oddsjam to able to see the positive EV picks?
@BillyC24 Жыл бұрын
If you follow my OddsJam dashboard or follow me on Pikkit you can see my plays. Also I post some plays on my videos here but you would have to subscribe to the EV plan on OddsJam if you wanted to see the picks anytime. Also try their one week free trial, if you want to try it for free first. oddsjam.com/subscribe
@BillyC24 Жыл бұрын
Also I didn't see an email so send me another one and I'll get you the spreadsheet
@iq400_ Жыл бұрын
@@BillyC24 i already sent another email.. pls check it in spam, im pretty sure the email is correct already.. pikkit is not available in australia, i will try to see how to follow you in oddsjam dashboard.. thankyou
@paulchristianpacquing900 Жыл бұрын
good day billy. so in the no vigs odd. the range would be +130 below? +110 to +130 (as you mentioned)? thank you
@BillyC24 Жыл бұрын
Correct, anything +125, +110, +105. If it's +140 I don't bet it.
@nickkalamotousakis1660 Жыл бұрын
Billy, Do you bet conflicting bets in thr same game. Say you bet the under in a game and then the over came up and fit your betting parameters would you bet the over or just ride with your under?
@BillyC24 Жыл бұрын
So in those instances I don't bet the over if the CLV moves against me. I just ride with my original bet. Now if I bet the Under in say the Laker game, I'll still bet LeBron over on points if it has an edge. I've also bet the over in games but the under in the first half. Not my favorite plays I won't lie but they have an edge and I have hit both before.
@nickkalamotousakis1660 Жыл бұрын
Thanks that helps
@pwicketts8 ай бұрын
This is exactly what I’ve been looking for. I’ve been focusing too much on market width when selecting what gets to place. Is this still your strategy today or has it changed since you’ve been using the money machine?
@BillyC248 ай бұрын
It’s changed since the money machine, I use the money machine on every play now. That strategy though is solid. Currently I’m following the Kelly method but using the money machine and plugging in the odds for each sharp off shore book to find out if there’s an edge for each play. Bit of work but I find the money machine is a solid resource.
@DiorInEveryStore7 ай бұрын
@@BillyC24did u do a video on that yet?
@BillyC247 ай бұрын
I’ll be making an updated on here soon. Going through my step by step process. Stay tuned bro!
@DiorInEveryStore7 ай бұрын
@@BillyC24gotchu thanks
@tuccisnaggy77759 ай бұрын
this was amazing bc!
@MsPriyaLal Жыл бұрын
Nice explanations.. How do you handle when you take a bet and then later it doesn't beat the closing line so it no longer has an edge? This seems to happen a lot on odds jam.. at least 40 to 30% of the time.
@BillyC24 Жыл бұрын
It stinks when it happens but I ride out the play no matter what. Obviously you can try and cash out for most likely a small loss but I don't feel it's worth it. Definitely personal preference when that happens though.
@kenjimar30687 ай бұрын
What is your Kelly Criterion percentage for this strategy?
@BillyC247 ай бұрын
So that’s where this strategy differs compared to the Kelly criterion. I don’t have a Kelly percentage. I just have one unit is the max bet for me and then I base every play off of the no-vig fair odds, and then apply my wager size to it, so this strategy ignores expected value, even though I use odd jam to show me plays that have an edge.
@payne71167 ай бұрын
How often do update your bankroll, so you know how much your unit size is?
@BillyC247 ай бұрын
At the very end of the month I either increase, decrease or keep it the same. Now in the small chance I have a disastrous first half of the month then I would re adjust and lower but that hasn’t happened to me yet.
@mpakt590 Жыл бұрын
Hey Billy great video! What is the best way to get ahold of you?
@BillyC24 Жыл бұрын
Twitter @YoMomma2431
@lesdesilets-et5bz Жыл бұрын
@@BillyC24 you have amassed a large following there..lol.
@jklsdas55 Жыл бұрын
Can I ask how many books you have access to and are you limited on those books? I'm stuck in Maryland and have almost no books to use without severe limits
@BillyC24 Жыл бұрын
I have over 20 accounts, seven off-shore books and the rest American books. AZ is a great state for sports betting so I'm very fortunate there.
@DrewWhatitDo6 ай бұрын
How do u keep ur excel accounting. Do u have to manually update it every day?
@BillyC246 ай бұрын
I’m in it every day yes, you don’t have to do it that way. Just depends on how active you are. Naturally the longer you wait the more it piles up.
@bmtseidel50147 ай бұрын
How many books do you use and how much money do you start with on each? Thanks Mike
@BillyC247 ай бұрын
I use 12 very consistently. I have over 20 different accounts but some books I’m very limited on so I don’t use them. The second part of your question all depends on how much you’re comfortable with. It all depends on how much you’re looking to bet or what your unit size is. I would say at least $50 in each book assuming you’re betting five dollars a play or in that five to $10 range.
@louisharrison6593Ай бұрын
I'm on a 4 day run using this strategy
@BillyC24Ай бұрын
4 days of winning or losing?
@louisharrison6593Ай бұрын
@@BillyC24 winning.. thanx bro
@Transcendzz9 ай бұрын
If you start with say a $10,000 bankroll and on your first few days of positive EV betting you are negative and say you only have 7k now, would you keep playing bets using the $10,000 bank roll setting or would you lower it down to $7,000k? I’m just confused as to when you lower and raise it.
@BillyC249 ай бұрын
For me I keep the same bankroll number for the entire month. If you lower your bankroll three days in it will take you that much longer to get back the money you lost. So make sure when you’re picking a number you are comfortable with it because those losing streaks definitely happen.
@imgriffm4426 Жыл бұрын
Will you bet on conflicting bets ? For example a sports book give you great odds for Over 215 points on a basketball game, and another sports book give you great odds for over 217.5 points, would you bet on both ?
@imgriffm4426 Жыл бұрын
Both odds being for the same game obviously or else it wouldn’t be a conflicting bet ^
@BillyC24 Жыл бұрын
@@imgriffm4426 So if I got an EV edge for O 215.5 and I bet it then later I see an edge for O 217.5 I would bet that as well. That's considered a "Ladder" play. They can be more volatile because they could both win or lose.
@aaryanramrakhyani5923Ай бұрын
Do you only take bets that have a pinnacle line attached.
@BillyC24Ай бұрын
No, I also factor in BetOnline, Circa and BookMaker
@danzesociety Жыл бұрын
I assume oddsjam is available for UK residents. Not seen anything in their terms saying otherwise.
@BillyC24 Жыл бұрын
It is, they offer a global sports package for the Plus EV tool that can help you. Use my code Billy20 to save 20% off the monthly price.
@jean-pierrelebeuf57869 ай бұрын
Is it possible to have your excel spread sheet. Just the template with the formula?
@BillyC249 ай бұрын
Yeah I can send it to you, shoot me an email and I’ll get it over to ya. Billcollins88@yahoo.com
@fedaricebrou30648 ай бұрын
Do you use the same props in multiple bets?
@BillyC248 ай бұрын
Typically I’ll bet the same prop twice or add it a second time to a different round robin, parlay, DFS slip. I don’t like to have a particular play on three or more times. Too much exposure can ruin things, I take a cautious approach.
@Sports-Betting-Tips Жыл бұрын
Amazing!
@sebastiandelapuente45567 ай бұрын
Awesome video
@BillyC247 ай бұрын
Thank you I appreciate it! Have you had success using the strategy?
@yooooooooo459 Жыл бұрын
how little of money do you think you could get started with? And you probably wont know but would this work in New Zealand?
@BillyC24 Жыл бұрын
Mark if you are able to bet $100 a day you can make this work for you. The New Zealand part I can't speak to but look at their Global EV Package it's $149 a month and they offer a bunch of different sportsbooks. Use my code Billy20 to save 20% off the monthly price. Any questions feel free to ask.
@yooooooooo459 Жыл бұрын
@@BillyC24 thanks mate, just wondering if you are paid by them in any way OTHER than affiliate code and if the affiliate code is something anybody can get. You do seem very genuine and you’re entertaining! Thanks for reply and the videos
@BillyC24 Жыл бұрын
@@yooooooooo459 Not paid by them but anyone can sign up for their affiliate program. Appreciate ya
@Von199X Жыл бұрын
Let me get this straight you will bet on different sites? not just 1 site?
@BillyC24 Жыл бұрын
Yeah man I'll bet on any site I have an account with. I'm constantly searching for value.
@danielschwartz1228 Жыл бұрын
My question is when should I place bets? That’s just as important as anything.
@BillyC24 Жыл бұрын
I place them all day long, early in the morning all the way through late at night brother.
@danielschwartz1228 Жыл бұрын
@@BillyC24 Sounds like a good plan.
@abdullahfatou Жыл бұрын
I’m a live better would you do the same thing using oddsjam
@BillyC2411 ай бұрын
I would, you just have to move VERY fast. It's possible to find live EV plays and be very profitable. You need multiple screens pulled up and logged into various sportsbooks ready to go.
@Tofeu90 Жыл бұрын
How do you decide if you take a negative or a positive odds bet?
@BillyC24 Жыл бұрын
I look to see if the play has any Positive EV and if it does how much edge is there. From that point I then determine how much to bet.
@Tofeu90 Жыл бұрын
@@BillyC24 thank you very much .
@user-zk4sj6jb5m10 ай бұрын
I have no idea what you’re talking about 😳
@BillyC2410 ай бұрын
No worries, I’m just talking about how much you should wager on each bet taking into account the fair odds of the bet. So there’s a level of safety in each wager so you don’t bet more than you should for each play.
@superstock1986 Жыл бұрын
What bankroll size do you use for 1 unit to equal 100?
@BillyC24 Жыл бұрын
So it all depends on how much money you are comfortable betting on a daily basis. Having 1 unit = $100 means you're average bet size will fall around 60-75% of that unit. If you're bankroll is $1k then I would advise against 1 U =$100 but if you're bankroll is $7k then I would green light it. Depends on your risk tolerance.
@superstock1986 Жыл бұрын
@@BillyC24 thanks why do you use the kelly method that odds Jam uses? Wouldn’t it be the same eventually since your wagering 800-1000 bets a month at about 30 a day?
@superstock1986 Жыл бұрын
I meant why don’t you use the kelley method
@BillyC24 Жыл бұрын
@@superstock1986 So the Kelly Calculator goes off the EV % and it's weighted more towards player prop bets. You'll see a lot of player prop bets that have an EV % of 7,8,9% so the Kelly criterion would have you bet more of your bankroll. When it comes to Spreads, O/U, Moneyline plays those typically live in the 1-3% range so the recommended bet size won't have you bet as much but in my opinion Pinnacle is WAY sharper on main line plays like these than player prop bets. That's why I don't use the recommended bet size. Does that make sense?
@superstock1986 Жыл бұрын
@@BillyC24 thanks so how much is 1 unit if I have a 5k bankroll? I plan to bet through my bank roll each day so that I plan to bet 30-50 bets a day at 130 no vig like you suggested and use your unit size based on odds like in the video. If I have a 5k bankroll what should my unit size be or what would you recommend. Again I’m going with volume and want to bet like you suggested I’m a odds jam user myself since January and ready for Ev betting now
@douglasfuentes2737 Жыл бұрын
How do i get pinnacle?
@BillyC24 Жыл бұрын
Just go to their website and you can check their lines