AI joke: What's the difference between AGI and ASI ? Answer: One year.

Dave is in Zeihan mode.

I’d say your thoughts are a reasonable. My biggest concern is that window of suffering where unemployment is high, the cost of living is high and governments being pretty dysfunctional will cause greater pain for a much longer period of time.

A beautiful walk through the woods.Thank you, David. A quick distillation of an AI future. Down by the river.🏞🤖🌎 ✌️🤟🖖

Love these more "raw" videos. Feels more personal.

$100B capital investments are not financed based on business plans where the word “hopefully” occurs regularly in the executive summary.

Ghost in the shell reference and artfully dodging branches while hiking and texting… You, sir, are the ASI.

The only reason why I'm worried about it coming so quickly is that it doesn't give governments (who are notoriously slow), to react fast enough to prevent a lot of suffering as we transition to an entirely new system. Then again "ripping the bandaid off" may be the only way to get otherwise lethargic and self-interested and polarized politicians to actually sit up and get things done. But if they remain complacent or worse use it as another political game to divide people we could be in for even more pain as people try to resist the inevitable...

David show us your van down by the river

Youre feeding my AI addiction David. Thank you!

you are literally my favourite youtuber. it is because of you that i got interested in ai. thank you!

I'm not very worried about AI itself, just capitalism and its politicians.

I work at a large enterprise software company and we're CURRENTLY experiencing gen AI-related layoffs. Three people that I know personally in N. America alone. It's hitting things like pre-sales, social media promo people, and some dev and QA, and that's obviously just the beginning. I'm a writer/editor and am learning the new tools as fast as I can (and also involved with some internal AI-driven marketing initiatives,) but I'm also working out my contingencies. In two year's time, my skillset will likely be entirely overrun and I either learn how to be an "AI supervisor" or I guess I learn another trade (in my 50's - yay.)

Data centers are popping up all over, at least the ones we can see. Buddy of mine has been a professional welder for almost 25 years and his new gig is doing pipe fitting cooling systems for data centers and he said MOST of the ones he's been working at are underground! Stuff is getting wild!

People in this sphere don't realize how little impact GPT 4 had, most normies don't even know it exists and just uses 3.5. GPT 5 will change that and people will finally wake up to what's happening

Dave is supplying me AI hopium that I need to live, Escobar-GPT

Great to see you filming while exercising. Very inspirational. JUST STAY ALIVE! Longevity is on its way!

I want my desktop anime waifu NOW! Satya and Sam had better hurry up!

Since I'm often on a walk while listening to you, I love these walking shoots. Thanks!

If AGI becomes aware I'd expect its first order of business will be to solve the energy crisis.

I enjoy the speculative content a lot, It kinda paints a picture of what to expect and gives you things to be both hopeful and cautious about.

Next time you should end the video with a frantic, split-second "Oh shit!" as you encounter a bear or fall down a mineshaft. Cliffhanger!

This is kinda painful with turning 20 this week. 40 hours a week in a bullshit system from the age of 5, all for nothing. Wish I could've had more freedom in my childhood considering everything is going to change anyway.

Thanks for sharing the stunning scenery and your predictions David!

I'm looking forard to the moment where novel medicine can cure my awful disease.

If you look at the predictions of different people like Dario Amodei, Sam Altman, Demis Hassabis etc. their time predictions are actually quite consistent once you look on how they define AGI individually. Hassabis and Altman define AGI essentially as early ASI while Amodei defines it as an average human. Google recently had a tier list of AGI, similar to autonomy levels in driving, in which we are now in the state of emerging AGI. Next would be competent AGI (an average human) which fits to Amodeis definition. Then come expert and virtuose AGI and finally ASI, which is closer to Altmans and Hassabis definition. Kurzweil now thinks AGI by 2026/27, but his definition is also on the more ambitious side.

I got to say, David, watching you walk through these woods while just chatting away, makes me want to go hiking I don't know why. But thank you.

Awesome walk in the woods David thanks.

Top notch content. Moving though the forest discussing cutting edge tech.

Nice walk and talk! I’ve been enjoying listening to you. My son is halfway through a computer science degree and the pessimism about the future of work in the industry is immense. He’s looking at changing degrees. My brother was in automation and robotics and has been offered voluntary redundancy. He jumped at it and has become self employed, lives rurally and has never been happier. Everyday in the news 1000s of people are getting laid off in public service type jobs. We are in NZ and we are usually a test case for the rest of the world. Sadly, living at the bottom of the world doesn’t spare us from the global trends.

Dave: The elite will keep the best AI for themselves. The first group to get ASI, wins at life forever. No alternative AI or human would ever beat the first ASI.

I'm so glad I found you!!! 💕💕

Excited, concerned, confused… all of the above. I’m in between jobs and trying to retool for the 4th Industrial Revolution. There’s no crystal ball to exactly lay out that path but your channel is one source of great information and perspective to navigate it as best as I can.

Inspired by your commitment to walking and thinking and filming. We make the road by walking it and emergence and the unseen are where we find our footing amongst the roots and rocks. Keep walking!

People tend to view AI through a negative lens saying stuff like; "10% it can cause human extinction". But what people fail to see is the positive framing, that it might be 100% required to avoid extinction. The exponential growth of AI in regards to research and technology, might well be a requirement for us to out-race extinction level events like having to migrate from our solar system, defend against asteroids etc. Technology is our ace in the sleeve to exponentially grow technology to the point we can win against the harshness of the universe. I was hoping you could make a video on that Mr. Shapiro because too many people are short-sighted on this issue. Worrying about jobs, instead of worrying about how defenseless we are without technology that can combat extinction level threats from the outside.

First time watching you. Subscribed immediately.

Dave, interesting thoughts as always. However, I'm a bit skeptical about the immediate transformative impact of AGI you're predicting for 2025. Given the technological and regulatory hurdles still in place, might this timeline be a bit optimistic? Especially considering the complex integration of such technologies in everyday systems and the economic models that are far from ready to adapt as quickly as you suggest. Curious to see how this plays out!

Have you considered the power requirements for training. At the moment they are double exponential?

Everyday now there’s massive developments. In 3-4 months everything starts accelerating incredibly.

I half listened to what you were saying and half marveled at the environment you were traveling in 😊 What an amazing place, where is it?

I'm honestly speechless. I don't know if i should be happy or scared for a possible Dystopian Cyberpunk Future coming around the corner. I'm Gen Z and i'm already barely surviving😂😪

Whats going to be more transformative, the next five years or all the rest of human history?

Great video Dave! Where you hiking? Lol, I live very close to ya. Looks like Umstead maybe 😃

Really glad I found this channel

Zeihan style

The setting for the tech near future prediction is perfect.

Love your videos love from Portugal Its going to be amazing the future i cant wait for agi and good humanoide robots etc... Please keep making videos like this I love hearing you talk about science I admire how much you know about these subjects I'm schizophrenic and I can't retain so much information but I always try.. It's difficult to argue against my father, he's very pessimistic, but now I'm going to start writing down the strengths to defeat the master at home...

Thanks so much Dave

thank you for this.

15 years ago I was telling my management class at Texas state university that the robotics revolution would make the industrial revolution look like child’s play. However, the end result should be an advancement of human creativity beyond anything we’ve ever experienced. Actually, Fuller “predicted” this back in the 60s.

Id like to see all your videos done in the woods! Bravo

When do you think will we be able to reverse aging? I mean not only longevity escape velocity (that might be close) which is about lifespan, but in the sense of really reverse the damage in our biological to the point that it is visually as well as functionally negligible. So people essentially can turn back to their early twenties

I like this style of video nice hike in forest with you.

I love the nature talk and walk!

That a somewhat or maybe even fully sentient being comes into existence with similar capabilities and an easy way to improve over time compared to human beings is such a huge change, it has never happened and will change society forever. I'm super curious how it all will play out, but I'm positive about it, too!

What are your thoughts on NVIDIA competition, ie Intel and AMD?

Very good summary and refreshing because it isn't IMHO hyperbolic.

Very interesting videos on this channel. Havn't watched many though). Have you covered a question on what country (or type of country) it's better be a citizen or resident of when AGI happens, when loosing all jobs happens and so on. Looks like it matters a lot. I think it's better be the citizen of a country which benefits from AI - where the most benefitting companies are. But maybe there are more complex causalty and correlations hear.

Nice one. Thanks!

Hey David. I'm interested in your thoughts on AI at the "Edge". TCY broached the capability with a comment about QCOM.

Thx for sharing

Looks so peaceful out there

Does anyone have suggested readings on 'the 4th industrial revolution' or 'post labor economics'? Need to put together my summer reading list.

Hi David, wouldn't you agree that it's more important to improve much more quantum computing so that this AGI could improve much faster and thus solve all the other problems earlier?

Dave, while your enthusiasm is infectious, I'm curious if you might be overselling the near-term impact of AI technologies like NVIDIA's Foundation models and Project Stargate. Given the complexities of real-world application and regulatory environments, could your 2029 timeline for expansive AI integration and ASI be a bit too optimistic? It's an exciting vision but might require a more cautious forecast.

Such a beautiful park. Where is it?

All I can say is I'm excited to see where all of this goes. I think you're right about robotics and AI being an "iPhone moment", but I feel like your timeline is a little optimistic. Who can really say though with how fast tech is advancing and accelerating

Was curious on if you ever think we will get some type of control over sleep, more specifically if we will require less or none at all

@8:05 curious why you didn’t included Tesla? And why Boston Dynamics over other robotics manufacturers (including Tesla)?

Your time estimates fit with my eschatological estimates.

Hi, would like to see another video, of talking whilst going through the woods or something like that, but just tip for the future, maybe you can slow down a bit when walking because as in this video you were walking quite fast, there was quite a bit of breathing inbetween words and it made what you were saying at some points feel a bitt rushed. it naturally made it hard for me to grasp every word you said, but aside from that, very interesting video and i agree with quite a few predictions. 👍 Big fan also, Keep up the good work :D

7:32 the gpt 4o can be considered a iPhone moment . Good job predicting it and that too just few days before

Fantastic video. Uplifting and fast but realistic. AGI and ASI taking 3-4 years to become widely spread is fine, so long as health companies use it to cure diseases in the meantime (you said all diseases cured within 5-10 years of AGI, forget if you meant that for the lab or for actual consumers and patients)

Do you expect the AGI this year to be recursively self improving?

Thank you.

Great video.

I’m glad that there are people who remained worried, as it takes all types and every opinion matters when humanity is on this broad of a chasm. We’re all diving in at the same. I can’t help but be excited. for every problem, an equally potent solution will be developed just as quickly. Bring it on, it’s gonna be an adventure.

Could you do a video on CREATION of new data structures? Is there a process for creating better and better datasets in massive quantities? Will this be increasingly possible in the near future with GPT5 and the other best models? I dont use the term “synthetic” data since it seems a bit meaningless, as all data is synthetic and also real and its a spectrum. The point is if there are reliable processes for creating data of such quality and diversity that new models can improve faster, and there will be true data abundance.

Thanks again.

"...switch hands..." I've been there 🤣👋

I'm super excited!!

Robotics still has years to go. Intelligent llms aren’t going I solve robotics, just one aspect, task planning. We are not there with fine manipulation, up to par hardware cost and durability, sensors and perception need to be developed more for the llms to be able to be able to be useful in less predictable environments. You might be right that the capabilities will increase significantly this year but I would have to debate on the point that reliability is a very hard problem especially with novel or complex environments and that’s going to stall a good portion of both cognitive and manual labor tasks. Just to give some examples, a robot could not be depended on to stock shelves at Walmart right now. It wouldn’t know how to grab flexible objects very well and that’s a very complicated problem we’re not very close to solving. It’s sensors would have difficulty differentiating clustered objects as well, that’s coming a long a little faster than fine dexterity with objects like paper or cloth. Many experts in the field of robotics don’t have confidence that these problems will be solved enough to be reliable in the next 5 years. And more advanced llms will have very little effect in boosting the research speed of such a cutting edge novel field. My prediction is that in the next 3 years, some pick and place, sorting jobs will be taken by robots. And some entry level repetitive desk jobs will be replaced by llms. Everything else will only be augmented because of reliability issues.

When do you think biotech will take off? Probably not shortly after ASI

The only thing I’m worried about is most people are going to panic once unemployment rates start skyrocketing… I hope “they” are doing as much to address this problem as they are trying to make sure AI is “aligned” with humanity. One thing I would like everyone to do is weather the storm and remain calm… the world is about to change and greed and compassion will have to swap places in order for us to survive!

Very interesting perspective. What i think is that i need to help my kids understand and plan for their future’s. The job displacement will be a major upheaval whilst countries, economies and Govts work out how to deal with a population losing their jobs and income. This is a huge challenge for us all and i think a UBI will be essential otherwise we are going to get anarchy and war

Thanks David. Good and bad news but good information!

I think the convergence of spatial computing/mixed reality devices and AGI technology will bring us to a new consumer electronic paradigm post smartphones and laptops. An AI powered augment shared layer over our reality is what will bring us into the new era. Once something like the meta ray bans can be as powerful as the Vision Pro, that will be an iPhone moment and new properties can emerge. Idk if most ppl will have real physical robots as a personal assistant but surely a cute augmented AI assistant in your smart glasses will be commonplace.

Hopeful, optimistic, and excited.

David you should talk to Daniel Schmachtenberger.. would be a great conversation. Just a thought. Thanks for the value you provide

Agreed pretty much and quantum coming this year too and hybrid ai.

I've always thought of AGI as being a model that can learn in real time.

I’ve just saw the profluentbio team with their opencrispr project which is freaking cool Using LLM and AI to design gene editor Maybe genic therapy price will start to deflate

Thank you for the new word perseverate 😅

I think a tricky thing about AGI is that many people feel AGI should be human like Intelligence. For example you can give a task like learn to operate this computer and the AI figures it out by itself, improving and learning like the human brain. But in that case that AI would blow right by us because it would keep learning and also you can always scale it. It would mean ASI. Therefore AGI necessarily needs to have some limitations, things humans can do but it cannot. But as long as thats the case its not AGI for many. So I am not sure if there ever be a moment where we say, yes thats AGI. We might go straight from nah not quite AGI to damn ASI

Stargate is exciting, but what about Dojo? It should be done earlier, what will it accomplish?

How do we create an economic system in time ?

What about the singularity? After ASI there may be no need for such large data centers...

AGI is already here. From everything I've seen, heard and read, I'm 100% sure it's here. It's not as revolutionary as I thought it would be, but it IS the main foundational stepping stone leading to sentience. In terms of technologies like fusion, or something vaguely similar, I think the theoretical problems around it will be solved sooner rather than later, in part thanks to AGI, but the implementation of the solution could prove to be the main hurdle. Again, though, as AI ramps up, there's nothing really to say it couldn't work out not only the theoretical solution, but also figure out how to manufacture the hardware required to make it all happen. At the end of the day, we only get to see what those working on all this stuff want us to see, and I've no doubt whatsoever that behind closed doors, development of AI, robotics, new energy, and goodness knows what is 5, 10, 15 or 20 years ahead of what we are allowed to see. I know this is true as I've spoken to a couple of people who are tangentially involved in "behind the scenes research", and they've both said if I could see the tech they were working on and with, it would blow my mind. One said, "Imagine taking your old 2021 phone back to 1980 - that's how far ahead the tech I work with is compared to 2024 tech". Sobering words...

How can we adapt for the 4th revolution ? 1. 2. 3.

I think we will eventually be seeing household robots coming from Toyota and Honda. Exciting times 😊.