Niall Ferguson | AUKUS, China, Cold War II

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Күн бұрын

John talks to world-renowned Stanford University Historian Niall Ferguson about global security, the perception of the West, the strength of alliances in the face of communist threats, and what China's rising power means for the geopolitical environment.
Niall Ferguson, MA, D.Phil., is the Milbank Family Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution, Stanford University, and a senior fellow of the Centre for European Studies, Harvard, where he served for twelve years as the Laurence A. Tisch Professor of History.
He is the author of fifteen books, most recently Doom: The Politics of Catastrophe. His previous book, Kissinger, 1923-1968: The Idealist, won the Council on Foreign Relations Arthur Ross Prize. He is also an award-winning filmmaker, having won an international Emmy for his PBS series The Ascent of Money.
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00:00 Intro
00:16 Introducing Niall Ferguson
01:06 Is there life left in the West's commitment to defending its values and freedoms?
06:27 The Australian and French submarine alliance
11:49 The danger of China and the West's leadership crisis
16:48 Foreign friendship bonds
22:58 What does an offensive strategy from China and the US look like?
28:21 What is China's greatest priority?
31:06 Is China's rise inevitable?
36:57 How does China perceive the West as a target?
42:37 Do Western alliances reset the perception of Western declinism?
48:16 How do we read the isolated Chinese public and their view of the West?
53:03 Catastrophism's grip on the West
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Conversations feature John Anderson, former Deputy Prime Minister of Australia, interviewing the world's foremost thought leaders about today's pressing social, cultural and political issues.
John believes proper, robust dialogue is necessary if we are to maintain our social strength and cohesion. As he puts it; "You cannot get good public policy out of a bad public debate."
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Support the channel: johnanderson.net.au/support/
Website: johnanderson.net.au/
Podcast: johnanderson.net.au/podcasts/
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Follow Niall on Twitter: / nfergus
Follow Niall on Facebook: / niallcferguson
Niall's website: www.niallferguson.com/

Пікірлер: 553

@tscotom 2 жыл бұрын

Most Excellent insights, Thank you Mr. John Anderson & esp. Mr. Niall Ferguson. Your mindful analyses are quite important for us to be able to listen and think properly. Cheers and God bless

@MB-uw6eh 2 жыл бұрын

Thanks John for this conversation with Ferguson whose sound analysis has put this dangerous US/China tension into the right perspective. This needs to be broadcast everywhere.

@jonathanedwardgibson 2 жыл бұрын

He completely misses the encirclement of nuclear subs can only trigger China into ever-more aggressive stance. The radioactive dust of Australian cities and people will suddenly cool the planet long enough for us to wean off petroleum. Thanks?

@linmal2242 2 жыл бұрын

@@jonathanedwardgibson You are a goose JG thinking that little Australia would be a worry to the CCP. Yeah, they will do their cyber-war and 'influence' operations, not as effectively now as more than ever people and nations are aware of the threat and subversion, and the political and monetary cost of the Belt and Road, but really we are not much in their thinking. Subs will be nuke POWERED not armed.

@kresobilan1899 2 жыл бұрын

Empty pipe bag, Niall.

@tinto278 2 жыл бұрын

Now we have seen the Russian invasion of Ukraine with the backing of China. It shows you how important AUKUS is and how we knew it was going to happen.

@PozorUkraine 2 жыл бұрын

US can no longer police the world 🌎 with its rogue democratic ways. Thank god the US would decline due to its own might

@GXObserver 2 жыл бұрын

19:08 “I hope that there is a lot of goodwill in Britain towards Australia”. As a Briton, I’d say you have no need to worry on that score, John, except, maybe, that it stops at the perimeter or the cricket field and rugby pitch. 🤛 from the Poms!

@TGBurgerGaming 2 жыл бұрын

Can we keep you and send your queen back. Even though she doesn't live here?

@TGBurgerGaming 2 жыл бұрын

@@johnneville403 no. A monarchist wrote legislation that made everyone hate him for a few months. Because he literally said The Queen or the American system. Oh and this is the last vote you'll be allowed to have on it from here on out which isn't legal but there you go. Also it was a referendum which if he'd lost he could have legally ignored and probably would have so Howard was hedging his bets.

@GXObserver 2 жыл бұрын

@@TGBurgerGaming Gotta catch me first!

@williamfish1407 2 жыл бұрын

Brit here. Very fond of Australia and Australians

@derkguez8590 2 жыл бұрын

@@TGBurgerGaming I love how republicans always pretend there isn't an overwhelming majority of people supporting the Monarchy lol. I'm an American and by definition a republican, so I don't have a dog in this fight, but the tactics of outrage are interesting to point out lol. God Save the Queen lol?????😂😂

@sosbro 2 жыл бұрын

Very good points. I hadn't considered that the USA has gone through multiple "imminent collapse" stages in the past, only to arise stronger than before.

@Courage2006 2 жыл бұрын

@@kimuvat2461 The US has only been the "clear no 1" since WW2. The US became the largest economy around 1890 (and it still has the largest nominal GDP) -- but the dollar was not the main reserve currency (as it is now) nor did it have the most powerful military (as it does now).

@Jaapst 2 жыл бұрын

This one is different

@petersinclair3997 2 жыл бұрын

@@Jaapst China represents 17.3% of nominal GDP. The West pretty much all the rest. The USD accounts for 88% of international currency trade, the Chinese Yuan, 3.4%. As inferred above, the USD is now World Reserve Currency. The USD finds protection from Western Central Banks, the Petrodollar set-up and the Eurocurrency markets. Where China has been successful is attracting exporters, who don’t diversify their markets, and, with the Brick & Road and other build dependency initiatives. The World has to manage the Coronavirus in the short term. Later, the counter might be to deny China coal, iron ore and other resources. Also, pull back on FDI into plant and equipment, recalling, Communists are not beyond nationalisation of private industries.

@Jaapst 2 жыл бұрын

@@petersinclair3997 look don’t you see the USA is collapsing now for real? Are you so blind? We are headed to an totalitarian society in the west with forced jabs multiple times for a “pandemic”. This kind of polarization also in de USA has never happened so bad since the Civil war. Open your eyes.

@TheGreatAmphibian 2 жыл бұрын

@@Jaapst and don't forget fluoridation!

@marymcgloin3663 2 жыл бұрын

Thank you John Anderson for a very interesting discussion

@rolandtours8404 2 жыл бұрын

A relief to hear an intelligent strategic conversation about as comprehensive as one can get in one hour. A refreshing contrast to the currently debased hyper-partisan public discourse in the United States. Good subjects for another discussion would be economic globalization and migration, which agitate the Western public and animate populism.

@deanedge5988 2 жыл бұрын

I have to say most Brits I know, including myself, love Australia and Australian's; and admire especially their cultural contribution to these dreary old islands and the world. Its an indisoluble link over unimaginable global space.

@cargumdeu 2 жыл бұрын

you referring to Barry Humphries?

@AJWRAJWR 2 жыл бұрын

Cheers, cobber.

@john1boggity56 2 жыл бұрын

This is brilliant!!! So many of my ideas have been challenged by this conversation and many more questions raised that will set my course for further investigation. Thank you !!!

@CLiNT642 2 жыл бұрын

This is an excellent conversation gentlemen, thank you.

@dougm5341 2 жыл бұрын

Good to see you back John. I always find your interviews most insightful and informative. Niall is one of my favourites…

@JohnAndersonMedia 2 жыл бұрын

Thank you so much Doug!

@andymeek 2 жыл бұрын

Fantastic interview with one of my favourite historians, Niall Ferguson, and my one of my favourite interviewers, John Anderson! Keep em coming John.

@davekumarr 2 жыл бұрын

Thank you Mr.Anderson for your continuing initiatives & thank you Mr.Furguson for sharing your thoughts; very much appreciated. I think this is such an important conversation because it reinvigorates - the proverbial campfire meetings that humanity itself was likely forged from. Here's to wishing the both of you & your teams the very best.

@marcboblee1863 2 жыл бұрын

Mr. Anderson, thank you sir for yourself and the interviews, very much appreciated....

@JohnAndersonMedia 2 жыл бұрын

Thank you so much for your support for John's channel! It is greatly appreciated!

@jjuniper274 2 жыл бұрын

Very important discussion, that no one seems to be having.

@levcimac 2 жыл бұрын

The definition of 'cyber war' should include the manipulation of the culture and the psychology of Western populas via polarizing citizens through redherring conflicts of via disinformation/internet... and causing disruptions which create social tension, like Covid.

@jimburks6599 2 жыл бұрын

Yes, it's called Biological Warfare, the Wuhan Plague.

@kaliskunkog2255 2 жыл бұрын

Regimes. Regimes. Regimes

@Matticus898 2 жыл бұрын

yup, going to be like this from here on out

@JC-mi8fw 2 жыл бұрын

Really? War? Really? Sure, it might count as a cyber war, if you completely hollow out the meaning of war.

@vanessali1365 2 жыл бұрын

Agree with levcimac. Because Psychological manipulation of disinformation works on an emotional level in the cyber space of our digital would where there's no safeguard on a personal level as we are on our own mist of time when we accessing internet.

@sisiphas 2 жыл бұрын

Thank you, John. As ever, great conversation, interesting guest.

@JohnAndersonMedia 2 жыл бұрын

Thanks for listening!

@chadjohns6955 2 жыл бұрын

about 49 minutes in, John talks about the surveillance state in CCP, all valid points. I wonder if he is aware of his own country has been increasingly become that way during covid

@linmal2242 2 жыл бұрын

Only as a means to arrest the pandemic. With enough vaccinated cohort of the populace, the pandemic is diminished!

@jimcook1747 2 жыл бұрын

@@linmal2242 It would seem quite naïve to think that the State would be willing to give up so much power unless it is ruled by the greatest of men, which the rulers of the world are not.

@grannyannie6744 2 жыл бұрын

I thought the same thing.

@grannyannie6744 2 жыл бұрын

@@linmal2242 The roll out of which has also been one of unconstitutional government control

@youbigtubership 2 жыл бұрын

@@jimcook1747 Fair go. To assume the worst of democratically-accountable leaders who have been forced into challenging circumstances is an effective way to blind oneself to those would-be leaders who actually are anti-democratic. The Left is using the government's strategy used to mitigate the death and health risks of the pandemic to smear the government's broader motives - with the goal of blinding the people to their own Party's authoritarian plans. It's what they always do- Marxism-Socialism- Communism 101.

@dibqip 2 жыл бұрын

Just need to say that Australia and Australians are very very well liked in the UK. Any criticism (not actually aware of what the interviewer was referring to) should really be set in that context.

@peredavi 2 жыл бұрын

Wonderful interview. Niall Ferguson is a great historian and speaker. Always enlightening.

@secularbeast1751 2 жыл бұрын

Terrific conversation John and Niall. Thank you.

@hectorcruz5944 2 жыл бұрын

An amazing interview and feel I learned so much. God Speed and God Bless

@JohnAndersonMedia 2 жыл бұрын

Thank you!

@niguel4438 2 жыл бұрын

First rate, educational, important and thought provoking. Thanks.

@JohnAndersonMedia 2 жыл бұрын

Glad you enjoyed it!

@legendbird2008 2 жыл бұрын

@44:04 "Make Taiwan enough of a porcupine" So much genuine love here.

@linmal2242 2 жыл бұрын

There is NO love in the CCP !

@Bill3528 2 жыл бұрын

The biggest news in Australia’s defence is not the submarines but the Loyal Wingman. Australian designed and built drones in partnership with Boeing. Huge development and no one is talking about it as far as I can tell.

@epwlod777 2 жыл бұрын

That's how one can tell if something is actually meaningful.

@linmal2242 2 жыл бұрын

Shh. Don't go advertising it. Roll on Boeing and Queensland !

@petersinclair3997 2 жыл бұрын

We have to wait eighteen months for the detail, yet I think we will see much more cooperation along the lines of the Loyal Wingman. JORN and B2s seem complementary.

@petersinclair3997 2 жыл бұрын

@@lifefun1987 WiFi?

@petersinclair3997 2 жыл бұрын

@@lifefun1987 Several Western countries have exported manufacturing and GDP is mainly Services. With AUKUS there likely will be more defence research.

@shanewyatt9939 2 жыл бұрын

This guy is favorite commentator on geo political issues by far I could just listen to him for hours

@victormark2011 2 жыл бұрын

John…what a great interview..& by far the best discussion & analysis to date on those issues that have been to date provided by those commentators who fail to see the big picture except thru a petty partisan political mindset from both current & past political leaders let alone a media unwilling or unable to examine & comment with anything that reflects the reality of what is playing out before us..

@douglachman7330 Жыл бұрын

Thank you John Anderson for introducing this quality content that educates people with open interest in higher level thinking that is relevant to Australian situational awareness. Those that do think need this type of content to develop thier own freedom of thought. We are required to vote and an informed populace is important. Interview the media as it needs to do its important job as well.

@5anjuro 2 жыл бұрын

Two crucial potential Western allies that weren't mentioned are Vietnam and the Philippines. Securing their support for the defense of Taiwan, effectively undermines PLA planning and improves the odds of a successful Quad/AUKUS intervention. Vietnam doesn't need a lot of persuasion, they've got long standing serious beef with the PRC. The Duterte administration in the Philippines has been openly pro-Chinese, often to the outrage of the regular Filipinos and the military, but now it seems they're on the way out... The US and Australia could pay a little more attention to the PH, help them modernize and start treating them as a proper member of the English-speaking world.

@BrettHar123 2 жыл бұрын

Vietnam a western ally? Neutral maybe, but there is no way on Earth, that Vietnam would ever fight alongside the US.

@paulmcclung9383 2 жыл бұрын

@@BrettHar123 i think they would choose the US over China, assuming they think the US is stable and won't pull another Afghanistan.

@duanwanglowangcha7678 2 жыл бұрын

@@paulmcclung9383 Vietnam won't choose US.. Because of RCEP and Kamala Harris disastrous show in Vietnam.

@AJWRAJWR 2 жыл бұрын

Having travelled to Vietnam before it seemed to me that their national identity is equal parts anti-Chinese and anti-American.

@Akarsh-kq9uf 4 ай бұрын

Vietnam ain't becoming Western ally. Phillips can, who knows

@geoffhemmings6546 2 жыл бұрын

There is a strong affinity between uk and aus, particularly in military.

@winnielai7455 2 жыл бұрын

I enjoy your interviews enormously. Wish you were the leader of the National Party John

@chomes8048 2 жыл бұрын

This was great, thanks. I personally have found that prepping with some long term food stores, a large vegetable garden, some fruit trees, water tanks, chicken coop (if your land size and council allow it) and a solar battery system has actually made me much more optimistic about everything else that is out of my control. Plus the added bonus of prepping saving you money in the long run is nice. I think both extremes of the political spectrum are very negative about the social and geopolitical outlook in general. Everyone is being pushed to the extreme ends of the spectrum more and more these days and the internet is not helping that. The most rational people are somewhere in the middle staying quiet and hopefully they are still the vast majority.

@rkc62 2 жыл бұрын

Fantastic conversation. If only more people got hear this sort of informed, insightful analysis...

@StereoSpace 2 жыл бұрын

Excellent! Thank you.

@dartharpy9404 2 жыл бұрын

John you rock🙏

@personal9352 2 жыл бұрын

I would like to hear elaboration from Niall on why the Trump administration’s deal with the Taliban was a bad deal.

@listener523 2 жыл бұрын

Because Orange Man is.... BAD.

@tinto278 2 жыл бұрын

Elaborate on Biden letting Ukraine get invaded by Russia.

@netterdrachen1687 2 жыл бұрын

In another Video of Nialls, he said that it is typical that at the beginning of a pandemic, the local government hesitant to admit how serious the outbreak is. Why should China supposed to be different?

@linmal2242 2 жыл бұрын

Because after knowing, they tried hard to cover it up instead of telling the world !

@netterdrachen1687 2 жыл бұрын

@@linmal2242 On Dec. 27. 2019 was it for the local government in Wuhan relatively sure, that Covid can be transmitted between humans and reported it to the higher government level. On Dec. 30. 2019, only less than 72 hours later, the Chinese government informed the WHO about the new findings. How faster could it be done?

@dartharpy9404 2 жыл бұрын

Very good John, good job. Did Gloom and its a good read. Fantastic guest. Quality!

@VincentFulco 2 жыл бұрын

Outstanding discussion. Thank you.😃

@shakthidhasan4544 2 жыл бұрын

Niall never fails to enlighten.

@grahamtrezise1114 2 жыл бұрын

Thank you gentlemen....

@mikelixx 2 жыл бұрын

Amazing analysis, shows deep understanding of current Chinese status. China is in a very troubled condition indeed.

@TGBurgerGaming 2 жыл бұрын

Thank you for saying that about Russia. It's the obvious move from Putin to watch them tear each other to shreds.

@banjo1434 2 жыл бұрын

An illuminating analysis of China by Niall Ferguson. Well worth listening to. Thanks.

@johnwilhelm385 2 жыл бұрын

It has been great! Thanks gents...

@lorddigital4525 2 жыл бұрын

A very insightful and intelligent conversation!

@susangemmell9401 2 жыл бұрын

Where is there any proof that the UK is contemptuous of Australia? What nonsense. We Brits love the Aussies. Great discussion though.

@collintrytsman3353 2 жыл бұрын

insightful and right on the ball as usual Niall.................do more TV docs please:)!

@imaslob6168 2 жыл бұрын

Bravo!!!! Such great insight from both!!!!!!

@Leprechaune 2 жыл бұрын

Great interview, thanks John and Niall

@andthereisntone3454 2 жыл бұрын

Excellent! Thanks, gentlemen.

@lawjef 2 жыл бұрын

This is both the most optimistic and the most depressing discussion I have heard on the topic. There is so much good stuff in here.

@donpedrohidalgo2759 2 жыл бұрын

Great talk ! Thank you ...

@JC-mi8fw 2 жыл бұрын

Love your work John

@linmal2242 2 жыл бұрын

As the opening sentence says' prepare,prepare, prepare' so that really does justify the decision to ditch the French boats and go with a proven Brit or Yankee model. But the better plan would also be to lease a couple in the meantime, for crew familiiarisation, departmental management and immediate deterance !

@fizzyb00t 2 жыл бұрын

Yes. A good idea would be for Australia to buy the latest Astute/Virginia off the Brits/Yanks, and set up a production line of their own, building the same class (whichever they choose). This would be a much lower technical risk than designing their own class of subs, and would result in them being built more quickly and at lower cost.

@tinto278 2 жыл бұрын

After the Russian invasion on Ukraine you can see how pathetic France and Germany are at doing anything in Europe let alone Asia Pacific.

@alburj1 2 жыл бұрын

Very interesting and balanced discussion. It's great to hear such a rich conversation. I don't agree with everything that Niall wrote in his economic bestsellers, but am in agreement with mostly everything here. The over estimation of China, the importance of Cyber warfare and the economic hassles of the over reliance of the CCP on real estate.

@cjh903 2 жыл бұрын

又一个章家敦罢了

@Nick-bh5bk 2 жыл бұрын

I've watched this now a few times because I find it fascinating and really enjoy Ferguson's views. One thing that stays with me is his comments about he US looking like the UK between WWI and WWII. In one sense I agree with him. But the other part that I think is missing from this comparison is the rest of the competition - it is not like any other real competitors don't have tons of debt also and as even Ferguson points out, the easy low-hanging fruit of infrastructure development that China used for it's rise is basically exhausted - if you couple that with their demographic issue, they really are not positioned well to become a global leader, even if they were to take Taiwan - not saying they wouldn't be the regional hegemon by a long way, but they have serious long term problems that can't just be ignored or discounted. Anyways, I enjoyed this interview.

@aislaportland5555 2 жыл бұрын

A refreshing antidote to the nonsense and confected fears, that pass as mainstream news and comment. More please, thanks guys for your calm teaching and knowledge.

@isabellaliu8409 2 жыл бұрын

I think America needs allies that is share the same visions and values to the world not those allies who would constantly flip face with America hurting America’s interests.

@seanc.mcnally2118 2 жыл бұрын

Thanks, John

@qui-si-sana 2 жыл бұрын

Brilliant..well done chaps

@AH-wr1ir 2 жыл бұрын

Fascinating interview. Thank you.

@JohnAndersonMedia 2 жыл бұрын

Glad you enjoyed it!

@jf7243 2 жыл бұрын

What an excellent analysis, which was so broad ranging. Insights which the MSM media has avoided such as the optimism which technological advancement brings to the geo-strategic-political scene. Even to the insecurity of the CCP and the similarity to Nazi regime pre-WW2. But the best bit was the self diplomatic isolation of the CCP and the order of wolf warrior diplomacy that was so bad it even pisses off the French, that’s something! Thank you.

@JohnAndersonMedia 2 жыл бұрын

Glad you enjoyed in John!

@Pensivata 2 жыл бұрын

Please can we not talk about the "reunification" of Taiwan. The island has never been under the control of Beijing. Why give legitimacy to their claim for a straight forward annexation?

@derkguez8590 2 жыл бұрын

It was prior to 1949 but I understand your point. The way we frame it here in the west indirectly gives legitimacy to their (ccp) ridiculous imperialist claim. The Republic of China is an independent country...period.

@tinto278 2 жыл бұрын

we will turn china into glass.

@patriciakimball8150 2 жыл бұрын

Still great upon 2nd viewing 7 months later (along with Frank Fuledi & so many more of your interviews, John. 🙏✡️🇺🇸

@nigelmorley5099 2 жыл бұрын

John Anderson is pure gold

@z_actual 2 жыл бұрын

earlier than 2040 with BAE UK making modules and ASC aka BAE Osborne assembling, there are 2 plants online constructing Astute boats we (Au) could get the first boat out of the door in 5 years and a second in 7

@andreajane3633 2 жыл бұрын

z_Actual who's going to man this fabulous, nuclear-powered(?) & armed, state of the art killing machines? are there enough aussies to pilot, run & fix them? Service them..? Might have to get some 'mericans to do it, they seem trustworthy...

@z_actual 2 жыл бұрын

@@andreajane3633 these boats wont be nuclear armed Australia presently runs 6 Collins Class DE submarines, which will be coming out of service when the Astutes are coming online

@jimluebke3869 2 жыл бұрын

Japan is pushing for the Quad, Australia is pushing for Aukus -- it's nice that our allies are showing interest and initiative, here.

@sanjivbhatia4427 2 жыл бұрын

Informative conversations.

@tvhardtalkalert6238 2 жыл бұрын

Good Analysis!

@sunshineforlunch 2 жыл бұрын

Thanks John, Nice breakdown and real.

@BBBCanada1 2 жыл бұрын

Informative as always.

@rightsophia2843 2 жыл бұрын

With think tank intellectuals like Mr. Niall Ferguson providing such quality strategic analysis, China is really scared.

@lokmanmerican6889 2 жыл бұрын

Excellent interview

@tamascalderwood729 2 жыл бұрын

Riveting. Thank you.

@samboulton7722 2 жыл бұрын

China's behavior is dangerous and needs to be checked ASAP. But our complacency worries me as well. AUKUS seems a good idea to me. Hopefully we deepen our partnerships with like minded countries and strengthen our economic ties as well as our military ones. Great interview.

@petersinclair3997 2 жыл бұрын

Suspect security is the reason for only three countries in AUKUS. Too much spycraft and opportunities for leaks with other countries. In recent times, even Canada and NZ have been drawn into China’s dependency initiatives.

@swgate8292 2 жыл бұрын

wonderng why John Anderson appeared so relaxed and calm , and Niall Ferguson acted so agitated and bending his face on the issues ?

@ricardokonflanz4120 2 жыл бұрын

Great interview 👍

@JohnAndersonMedia 2 жыл бұрын

Thanks Ricardo!

@michaelsims1160 2 жыл бұрын

As a Canadian I’d warn the Australians about British Subs. 20 years ago we bought 4 of them from the British on the cheap and they were floating death traps that cost far more to fix then they were worth. The Royal Navy knew this and concealed how bad they were. Nostalgia for the Empire is all very well but it doesn’t seem to go both ways if that’s how the UK treats its closest allies.

@ThaFunkster100 2 жыл бұрын

A very interesting discussion, thank you, I just subscribed to your channel. I hope there will be more like this in future.

@JohnAndersonMedia 2 жыл бұрын

Thanks Stephan!

@benlee9647 2 жыл бұрын

Great talk

@valthirteen 2 жыл бұрын

John & Niall, sagacious questions and discourse, as ever. That "catastrophism" augers ill, is self evident. However, the west it seems, for the moment at least, to be roiling, navel gazing, and self harming, with little geo-political focus. One hopes that circumstances do not conspire to hurl us into a conflict again, as so often in the past.......notwithstanding that a conflict would ultimately yield, catharsis. Thank you both.

@ryanward10 2 жыл бұрын

May God help whoever pokes the US right now. The left & right would love to unite on something, and turn their anger at each other towards some common enemy.

@lizeggar2421 2 жыл бұрын

As a UK citizen and resident, it worries me that so much of the merchandise here is made in China. I have been trying my utmost not to buy anything from China, but it is near impossible. Even if something is not made in China, very often the components will be. Another thing that has come to my notice is that there is so much copying of British technology that is simply being copied by China. In fact, there are British firms that specialise in finding British made goods and having them de-engineered and copied by Chinese firms for the UK market. Surely, there should be higher tariffs placed on Chinese goods, so that locally made goods can compete.

@petersinclair3997 2 жыл бұрын

Historians call China’s copy and improve approach, “polishing Jade”.

@RichardPhillips1066 2 жыл бұрын

I love academics subtle use of language he just totally devastated Biden , and didn't even raise his voice :)

@patrickgleason2066 2 жыл бұрын

“Devastated Biden?” I totally missed that. As you said; they are academics. Neil Ferguson is a very brilliant historian, I totally believe his analysis about China’s actual weakness.

@andrewwotherspoona5722 2 жыл бұрын

I'm not convinced any longer of "West's" moral superiority. Based upon my personal experience in NSW and witnessing the behaviour of the Victorian government we seem to be heading towards totalitarianism. I worry about our future. As a dual UK/Australian citizen I'm delighted by this purchase of the submarine. And yes without question we need to remain close to UK/Australian for our security. But all three countries need to be careful we don't destroy our democracies.

@ogodei70 2 жыл бұрын

AUKUS This is my take on what's behind the new treaty based on interviews of people and the timeline of events and why the Australians did not go for French nuclear subs. 1. Due to the change of strategic concerns the Australians change their minds and go for SSN's. 2. The French are unlikely to transfer their nuclear tech the the Australian government so they can build their own subs. 3. The French barracuda subs need to be refueled every 8-10 years, not a problem for France who have a large nuclear industry but a big problem for Australia. The US/UK subs have a 25 year reactor life so never need refueling (the subs lifespan is 25 years). This means the Australians can build the boat (with the reactor coming from US or the UK and just operate the sub for 25 years, then most likely hand off the sub to the US/UK for decommissioning. 4. My guess is the Australian's will/have already chosen the Astute class for their subs due to lower cost (the last few boats have come in under budget) and fewer crew needed to operate them. 5. The UK is in a unique position with decommissioning subs and the end of the Astute class build for the UK. 6. The 3 Trafalgar class boats are to be decommissioned as the last Astute's (boats 6 and 7) are commissioned, these boats can be leased to Australia to train up the Australian crew on safely operating nuclear subs. 7. The last of the Astute class is under construction (boats 6 and 7) and will be in the water by 2026 (boat 6 around 2024). this opens up a build slot for an Australian Astute class to start construction in 2024-25 and possibly a second boat in 2026-27. 9. So by 2027 Australia could have 1-3 Trafalgar class subs under lease and 2 Astute's under construction, with boats 3 to 8 built in the UK for speed. 10. The new UK program called SSNR will likely be a joint venture with Australia to keep down costs and these will be the Subs built in the land of the giant jumping mice, around the late 2030s 11. And none of this is possible without US permission as UK reactor tech is partially based on US tech and the decommissioning will most likely be handled by the US as they have larger facilities for the decommissioning of nuclear subs. So, what do you think? is any of this likely or complete nonsense. Of course the Australians may go with the Virginia class

@petersinclair3997 2 жыл бұрын

Interesting read. Very informative. AUKUS will be about more than submarines going forward. Cooperation on R&D in multiple spheres of operations.

@vanessali1365 2 жыл бұрын

Thanks 👍

@eastsmall 2 жыл бұрын

good job. Keep up the good work.

@JohnAndersonMedia 2 жыл бұрын

Thank you!

@eastsmall 2 жыл бұрын

"Every form of addiction is bad, no matter whether the narcotic be alcohol or morphine or idealism." Carl Jung

@jo9732 2 жыл бұрын

One of the underlying concepts not discussed here is why Beijing and DC cannot agree to a mutually beneficial power sharing deal in the pacific. Why rock the boat? Everyone is making money and enjoying Chinese goods. Why rock it?

@johnneville403 2 жыл бұрын

Because China is militarising oceans stretching 800km south of it southern coast to the edge of Indonesia. China's neighbours are under no illusions as to what it's doing.

@frankxu7418 2 жыл бұрын

@@johnneville403 check out the history about southern china sea.

@minhsun5441 2 жыл бұрын

Professor Niall Ferguson wrote a book about Henry Kissinger but there are a lot about Kissinger that he doesnt know about it. The former foreign minister Le Duc Tho met Kissinger 16 times negotiation for peace agreement. Mr Le told communist party leaders and journalist Henry Kissinger "A clown singing like a pig" that the reason he refused to give America any concession. I love to see Le Duc Tho vs Robert Menzies. " Licking the British empire arses" . Vietnamese tough guy

@rhettstraube2559 2 жыл бұрын

Really good. Shared. Been living in Taiwan 🇹🇼 since ‘97.

@verRioti64902 2 жыл бұрын

Mankind has had AD and BC, now we have GT(greta thunberg), rejoice!

@TheHam86 2 жыл бұрын

Love me some Niall

@farawayman4622 2 жыл бұрын

great

@wessexexplorer 2 жыл бұрын

Re subs - you should start with the trafalgar class subs and then have the astutes when they are replaced while you build up your ship building capacity.

@robertcalamusso4218 2 жыл бұрын

Difficult times ahead. Hope the World Leaders realize that War is not an answer.

@paperclip612 2 жыл бұрын

The current US administration, such as it is, is responsible for all its actions.

@anjurkrishnan7831 Жыл бұрын

Great conversation, I am seeing this in Jan 2023, but whatever Niall said in and about 2021 about China resonates now. I agree with his line "an insecure ccp and xi is more dangerous than a rising china, an insecure ccp is likely to lash out", we had seen some of it in 2022.

@ruifenghuang1029 Жыл бұрын

Just a caveat on that, there is little historical trend where China externalizes its issue due to insecurity. Every time China went to war since 1900 with Russia, Japan, India, Vietnam, US in Korea/Vietnam. It has all been external factors, even if you count subduing the Tibetan. US on the other hand do have some example of going to war due to domestic politics, Vietnam invasion