Amazing , how well and how clearly can Niall Ferguson explain about China and the world politic in general! I enjoy this program so very much , thank you!

I love this channel and the interesting, honest and probing conversations John has with his guests. Thanks for this.

This American is deeply grateful for such high calibre Australio-Scottish mind food.

But that is the thing, The planet is not in trouble because of CO2. Environmental devastation is coming from actual physical damage such as hydroelectric, plastic, actual toxic emissions, etc. This makes our use of China as the factory of the world even more problematic.

We do indeed live in interesting but very concerning times. These analyses are highly interesting; please keep them coming.

I really agree with Niall Fergurson's comments on China here (I am a Taiwan citizen who has worked in China and has a background in economics so I think I have not insignificant degree of understanding of China).

Put a large carbon footprint price tag on each item sold by China. When it is passed on to the consumer, the consumer will not purchase from China.

This sort of current discussion is so important. Thank you and keep informing us of what is happening so we can be prepared for the challenges ahead.

Great 14 minutes, thanks Niall! 🙏🏻

Very happy to find this channel - keep up the good work. In-depth discussion and analysis is a rare things these days.

You are doing a good job John

A very worthwhile commentary.🇦🇺

Love Niall. Great guest.

Interestingly the CC's at one point thought John's voice was [music], I think I agree. [BTW, Thank you for enabling Closed Captions. ]

A terrific conversation.

I always like how Niall Ferfuson explains about Geopolitical issues.

Because of the family social care system in China, where it's a child's job to care for their retired elders, many of those single child policy children are now left with one salary to care for their parents and grandparents, leaving it impossible to afford their own families. Though it's a bit rich for developed nations to congratulate themselves for lowering emissions, when they've just outsourced their emissions to China.

Brilliant Nial!

I love these two.Mr. Anderson gives us the opportunity to enjoy intelligent, graceful conversation.

Att John : Would you please find an experienced *manufacturing* person to come on and discuss Australian *manufacturing.* Particularly high tech, high value *manufacturing* as I think we do that very well on a smallish scale. Can we scale that *manufacturing* up? Is that not a good path? If not what is a good path? What do we need to prepare and supply so that a sustainable *manufacturing* industry can be attractive to investors. I just want to see much more discussion about *manufacturing.* Note, that while I'd encourage discussion about how to cope with high wages, how to work with them or take advantage of them, I do not want to hear anyone say high wages are a barrier, they are not. We must adapt to high wages or even turn that to our advantage. Also note, power should be part of the discussion.

Neill Ferguson's a smart fellow, smart enough to be able to read and understand Dr. Stephen Koonin's book, or many others, that replace the hysteria with reason.

wow like a perfectly matched confirmation

"The Greenhouse Effect, A Summary of Wijngaarden and Happer 2 months ago Andy May By Andy May This post was updated 9/24/2021 to reflect reader comments. The phrase “greenhouse effect,” often abbreviated as “GHE,” is very ambiguous. It applies to Earth’s surface temperature, and has never been observed or measured, only modeled. To make matters worse, it has numerous possible components, and the relative contributions of the possible components are unknown. Basic physics suggests that Earth’s surface is warmer than it would be with a transparent atmosphere, that is no greenhouse gases (GHGs), clouds, or oceans. If we assume Earth is a blackbody, then subtract the solar energy reflected, from the hypothetically non-existent clouds, atmosphere, land, ice, and oceans; we can calculate a surface temperature of 254K or -19°C. The actual average temperature today is about 288.7K or roughly 15.5°C. This modeled difference of 35°C is often called the overall greenhouse effect.

China is at worst a house of cards, and at best an economy in serious trouble. I am concerned that the CCP’s primary aim of staying in power, no matter what, will cause it to rely upon military incursions to bolster popularism and nationalistic fervour to cover it’s economic failures. Taiwan is the CCP’s most likely first incursion. The question is, what will cause China to fire the first shot? Will it be it’s poor economic performance, or diminishing populist support for the CCP? Great discussion. Thank you.

Great conversation. We need to know more about China's internal ructions. On a personal note...John, that is a horridly brutalist chess set.

We're all flocking here in hopes of finding a tale of China's decline. I wouldn't bet on it, much less base any policies on it.

Off subject, but who makes quality leather chairs like those?

Very interesting conversation. Between two intelligent people. Not like the nonsense we get on German television, were mainly left-wing, foolish people get a voice.

Publish a talk on what is happening to freedom violations in Victoria

The single most important question with regards to climate has remained unasked to the shame of our wise overlords. That is- what is the optimum climate for the health of the biosphere we depend upon for human survival? To the extent the climate is really changing, is it moving towards or away from that optimum? To what extent is human activity helping or hindering that trend? Only when we know the answer can or should we propose any changes in human activity lest we do more harm than good.

This is very good. However, the Domestic issues drive the foreign predatory nature of the CCP controlled China. The CCP China has to expand or crumble from within.

These videos should be shown at every school.

see MIT physicist Richard LINDZEN on CO2 as a non-problem

At first glance I thought I was clicking on to a video with Jeremy Clarkson 😂😂..

He's spot-on with the Hong Kong prediction.

The research associates have been hard at work gathering info.

At the 43 second mark, should read Stanford Uni, not Standford

Western CO2 emissions are down over 20 years in part because so much of the manufacturing of products we use is now done in China, no?

Communist dominated Eurasia with Big Brother, sounds oddly familiar to a certain book. Soon enough two plus two will equal five.

Smart

Thank you. We should put pressure upon China to reduce its CO2 emissions. Regards, Geoff. Reeks

Boycott all Chinese goods, or as many as possible until China tows the line.

Are they preparing to forcefully import labour?

Have a conversation about loss of freedoms in Victoria

Astute

How will the current Chinese financial and property crisis affect their development? If Xi is deposed or dies, will China do what it has historically done, and that is turn away from the outside world?

Regarding surveillance, 1. It’s not so scary in China as in WE, privacy is still respected. 2. Look at what US did and you know it’s actually every where

Robotics. If it exists as a technological platform, you can assume that China will acquire it.

Is that chess set made out of fudge? Looks like somebody ate one of the knights.

no we don't worry about climate change

see Princeton physicist William HAPPER on CO2 as a non-problem

“In the Eurasian project England will be the scapegoat in process of building the New Planetary Empire , the ultimate sacrificial lamb will be USA” Dugin

Great interview.. Not sure why 'Pollution per capita is not mentioned?'. If this is taken in to consideration China and India are not the biggest polluters ..

Whistling in the wind. Comfort for the condemned.

4:00

where is the knight for your chess set?

Climate: temperature rises a bit - then CO2 rises a bit. If climate headbangers are right surely it would be other way round? Cheers Stuart.

Most European countries with Hauwei kit are removing it. I think Italy's government isn't making a decision like a stereotype

I have discussions generally (and specifically) about the complexity of scale. You CANNOT over-estimate how having 1B+ people makes everything so intractable. Combine with a complete lack of transparency and climatic unawareness is staggering. And not one country calls them on the failure of their commitment to the planet. Don't get me started on how the CCP Central Committee will attempt the "forklift" of the Uyghur surveillance paradigm on the entire country.

China calculated it could let its environment go in the name of economic growth...they are now spending a lot of money to fix the damage...I would imagine they consider it to have been a worthwhile tradeoff...China's biggest economic challenge is the transition to a consumer driven economy as opposed to an economy driven by exports....but this involves a great transfer of wealth to hundreds of millions of ordinary people and is not easily accomplished without upheaval within the corporate world of Chinese mercantilism...

Nov 7, 2021 will be recorded in history, this day China becomes the number one position in international business (total value of import and export).

@beachworn And you think the Chinese government made the wrong calculation? The one child policy was implemented 40 years ago. In the past 40 years the population in China has been growing. If anything China would like to reduce its population to 700 million.

HK style can go on in HK for 9 months, but HK style can only go on for 3 hours in Washington DC, you seem not to have a problem with the US?

Too many out there are hoping for China to self immolate. How do we practically steer the world to more positive outcomes for the environment and bring China with us. Pricing things in a realistic way so that they account for environmental cost globally I think is very important otherwise we send manufacturing to the next nation prepared to lower bar on environmental standards. We humans really are a greedy bunch.

The only way to really fight climate change is to take all export-oriented manufacturing from China to places with cleaner, more renewable energy sources.

The shrinking population of China raises issues that aren't easy to overcome but can be. They can use more robotics and automation to make up for a thinning workforce. They can increase wealth to resist a decrease in consumption from a smaller population.

The work force 200 million less by the end of the century...in 78 years correct?

You can not tell China what to do, anyway that is arrogant when we have had a much higher energy based standard of living for over a century.

So what if the planet gets a little warmer? We just learn to cope with it and live underground. The plants will thrive on more CO2.

I like Niall and I agree with much of what he is saying, but I don’t totally agree with some of his statements. I agree the issue with china now is domestic, but its almost purely economic. Xi Jinping is an old style hard lined Marxist who has dramatically increased spending in defence and at the same time mis-managed the economy. While certainly not as extreme as Russia up to the late 1980’s, its going in that direction. He has more momentum than the old USSR and can maintain this stance for longer, but in the end it will result in major economic issues. The only question is when will this occur. There have been significant power outages in china in the last month, so something odd is occurring. I disagree the population issue is a major problem; although there is no doubt cheap labour is no longer around. However China has been pivoting away from very low value manufacturing for many years and generally this is positive. Old age care is an issue, but there is massive opportunity for productivity improvements in agriculture which can free up labour for manufacturing. China learned the hard way that lots of people does not equate to economic power, its only what is left over after maintaining your population which can be used to demonstrate economic power, such a military, loans, etc. As for Europe, I mainly agree. China is far away, so its concern is a lot less. In Cold War I there were many countries in Asia which felt the same about the soviets and they were a lot closer. The UK is certainly focusing a lot on china and there is a reasonable amount of ill feelings towards china concerning COVID in Germany, however at the business level Niall is correct.

I'm sure it was just an oversight but they forgot to mention China's achievements and opportunities. Here's a few for the sake of balance! Over the last 25 years, China's GDP growth was 3 times that of the US; it's real wages growth was 4 times that of the US. Over that same period China has moved from a low tech rural agriculture based economy to a high tech modern industrial economy moving 600 million people out of poverty. It is the first real competitor to the US in terms of political, military and economic power in about a century. I suspect that competition is the real motivation for this "problems" video!

Oh dear, Neil. Didn't have you down as a clinate change panicker. Co2 is not a pollutant. See Pateick Moore's talks on this

It's about 2 systems....a finacialized capitalist one and a mixed planned capitalism.... It's obvious to me which has more problems....

Come on, we know on per capita level the US and western nations are much higher when it comes to carbon emission. You're comparing a fast growing economy nation with a population 4-5 times bigger than the US. That's not a fair comparison isn't it.

Donald Trump was despised for good reason.

Hahaha

China's billionaires don't even have toy space rockets. Crazy country.

what niall cleverly omits is historically 80% of the total co2 emitted is by western nations, where china/india is not even 10% of the human total :)

at 1:44 good point on comparative advantage of cheap labor. but, don’t give the, the crazy idea that the new cheap labor is now all of their adjacent neighbors who China must re-take or colonize.

What do we do about India and China start making all our own goods with low carbon power

Real question in the climate change debate isn't China but whether it's EVEN a problem at all! Anderson and Ferguson fell for climate alarmism! Fools!

You forgot wuhan viruse and demographics

Sort out your spelling. Helps with credibility.

Speaking negatively of other people's issues means those countries are doing the right thing.

The Wu Maos are out in force in the comments lol.

3:30 Ferguson is very selective, and somewhat disingenuous, in the CO2 emissions figures he considers. He talks about percentage *change* in CO2 emissions - for which, admittedly, the US has done well in recent years (and China badly). However, he fails to mention that the US is still the second biggest overall CO2 emitter (between China and India), and is by far the biggest CO2 emitter per capita. i.e. the average American person is contributing more to the problem that the average Chinese/Indian person.

It is misleading to state that some first world countries haven't contributed to the growth of annual carbon release since 2007 but China has accounted for 50% of the growth of annual carbon release. First world countries were releasing too much carbon (per year) before 2007...and we still are! One of the reasons our annual carbon release hasn't grown is because our companies have sent a lot of our fabrication/production industry to China! A fair amount of China's carbon comes from our companies making our stuff... Let's actually take responsibility for our countries/companies carbon release instead of using nationalism to shift the blame...

As an Englishman who is a Permanent Resident of the PRC (the City of Hong Kong), with thirty five years of familiarity in one form or another, Ferguson's arguments are flawed. One example. He cites the 'middle income trap' as a potential curse, as he thinks from a Western perspective. China has publicly stated that they are committed to AVOID the huge wealth disparity that blights the West, the USA being a prime example, as in their words they only want to produce a "moderately prosperous country". Another example? He questions whether the 'one country two systems' principle will work, completely neglecting that at the end of Hong Kong's fifty years, just twenty six years from now, it will be ONE COUNTRY ONE SYSTEM not 'one country two systems'.

Its all about money and business. China hold the keys now, lets see the future.

The mentioned distaste of Europeans and especially Germans for Donald Trump makes me think this isn't a recent talk. With Merkel stepping down the leadership of the western free world may return to the U.S. in the person of Biden. It's good to hear intelligent discussion about world events after the inundation of madness we suffered the last four years.

Niall Ferguson is among the greatest Anglo-supremacists and neo-imperialists of our time. Listening to him reminds me that supremacism and imperialism are not relics of the past.

no one should listen to a word Niall Ferguson says ... he's an amateur, and owned by corporations ... he's doing the bidding of autocrats ... just follow the money

This guy lost me when he brought up climate change. (delete)

Good grief two middle aged white men discuss their World view how unusual