PANEL: DEMOGRAPHY IS DESTINY | Miriam Cates, Philip Pilkington, Paul Morland and Eric Kaufman

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Alliance for Responsible Citizenship

Күн бұрын

Economic stagnation, mass migration, or have more children - this is the choice facing societies across the world.
Young people are choosing not to have children. They even feel this is a moral responsibility. This has become common across the developed world, and yet we fail to fully understand that demography is destiny. Our economic and social futures will be directly shaped by the health of our families and the decisions that young people make about having children.
In our latest ARC off-stage conversation Philip Pilkington, Paul Morland, Eric Kaufman and Miriam Cates break these themes down.
They explore Pilkington and Morland’s ground-breaking research which shows that countries which fail to reverse demographic collapse are left with the bleak choice of economic stagnation or unsustainable mass migration.
“In Western politics”, Miriam says, “demography is the elephant in the room… The Right want lower taxes, the Left want more spending, but the truth is that we can’t have lower taxes or more spending if we don’t have a workforce! … This has nothing to do with politics or ideology, these are just the facts.”
“The only path to a thriving society”, Pilkington and Morland write in their paper, “lies in being prepared to have significantly more children than people in the United Kingdom, and much of the rest of the world, have had for decades.”
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We hope you enjoy this conversation about one of the most important questions of our time.
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READ Philip Pilkington and Paul Morland’s paper that is discussed in this video - ‘Migration, Stagnation, or Procreation: Quantifying the Demographic Trilemma’ - www.arcforum.com/social-fabri...
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Miriam Cates MP is a Conservative Member of the UK Parliament who was elected as the MP for Penistone and Stocksbridge in 2019. Miriam campaigns on issues around children and families, with particular focus on safeguarding, issues of age-appropriate sex education and gender ideology in schools.
Dr Paul Morland is an author and broadcaster who writes and speaks about population and the big demographic trends across the world, both contemporary and historic. Paul has been an associate research fellow at Birkbeck, University of London and a senior member at St Antony's College, Oxford.
Philip Pilkington is a macroeconomist and financial analyst who has written for a variety of publications including The Telegraph, The Spectator, UnHerd, American Affairs, and First Things. He is also co-host of the popular “Multipolarity” podcast and author of The Reformation in Economics.
Eric Kaufmann is Professor of Politics at the University of Buckingham, UK. He is author of 'The Third Awokening: A 12-Point Plan for Rolling Back Progressive Extremism' and 'Taboo: Why Making Race Sacred Led to a Cultural Revolution.
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ARC, the Alliance for Responsible Citizenship, is a global community with a vision of a world where every citizen can prosper, contribute, and flourish.
Join us in shaping this vision, as we draw on the best of our inheritance to build hope-filled future. Let's seek solutions to the problems we face that tap into humanity's highest virtues and remarkable capacity for innovation and ingenuity.
Learn more at www.arcforum.com
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00:00:00 - Introduction to Demographic Issues
00:03:20 - The Demographic Trilemma Explained
00:04:00 - Case Studies: Japan, UK, and Israel
00:07:10 - Analysing Future Scenarios: Economic Stagnation and Mass Migration
00:23:50 - Evaluating AI and Robotics in Addressing Labour Shortages
00:28:50 - Cultural and Psychological Impacts on Fertility Rates
00:31:30 - Pursuing Effective Strategies to Increase Fertility Rates
00:35:30 - Addressing the Root Causes of Fertility Decline and Reframing Policy Approaches

Пікірлер: 607

@alangilbert8627 2 ай бұрын

All these big brains and no one considered asking anyone with one child why they didn't have more! My wife and I only had the one. We wanted more, but both of us had to work to keep a roof over our heads. So surely the conversion should be more about making life less expensive so one parent can stay home to raise the children.

@user-je7db7bi7i 2 ай бұрын

And I bet your wife is still carrying all the domestic duties, which means either your child, if a girl, or other girls around your home and family would see the bs and swear that won't be them. Men refuse to hold themselves culpable for these issues. You disrespect women far too long, abused women far too long, raped and VIOLENCED women far too long, trapped women with their wombs far too long, told women MEN create children far too long, told women they are nothing far too long. And if you look, not one man here is even acknowledging the violence that keeps women away from men. Oh well.

@hilarygibson3150 Ай бұрын

I completely understand so this isn't criticism, it's something I find interesting. Somewhat notoriously native citizens have under 2 on average and migrants from certain regions, manage to have significantly larger families. Do they live with less? Do they have larger incomes? Do they access more benefits? It's something I've often wondered.

@adambulewski165 Ай бұрын

Poland gives money towards those who gave children. 2 kids should guarantee a financial incentive.

@chadstevens6605 Ай бұрын

A wealth transfer from those without children and retirees to those having children is a possible solution.

@bullethead1953 3 күн бұрын

Could get a smalller roof

@marty9011 2 ай бұрын

We have 4 children. When our youngest was a baby an older man made a comment on our large family size & I answered by saying that they would be paying for his retirement. That shut him up. I notice that among my peers a lot are not becoming grandparents, many families are dying out. Population decline is real & it is already too late to change that in the short term.

@chivomartinez 2 ай бұрын

We are a selfish generation who rather to be the last on their millenary family line than live less comfortable.

@Smellslikenarcspirit 2 ай бұрын

@@chivomartinezi,m a victim , survivor and triver of narcisitic abuse . I already raised children , my emotionaly imature parents . And now i dont want no children no more .

@chivomartinez 2 ай бұрын

@@Smellslikenarcspirit we are all victims. Good on you. Your millenary blood line ends with you. Mine will have at least one more generation. I did my job just as your parents regardless how bad they were they at least continued their bloodline unlike you.

@Rensune 2 ай бұрын

There is no way to reverse it without drastic measures. As in, it's so bad that banning women from the workplace would be a Moderate measure. (As opposed to, say, requiring women to get pregnant outright.)

@chivomartinez 2 ай бұрын

@@Rensune that's the difference between the left woke destroyers and the rest of us. They're patient enough to destroy our whole society one bit at the time for generations. They have a very long therm plan en execute it. It has taken them near to 100 years to take us to this moment. We can do the same in reverse to fix it but we don't have the patience, dedication and drive to keep pushing forward our cause like they do. But is more than possible.

@Tristan87688 2 ай бұрын

Nobody talks about the real reason. It is freaking hard to financially secure the possibility of even having one child, not to mention 2 or 3. Since USA started to make business of housing and the world followed this very bad idea, nowadays, most of the people cannot afford to have a flat or a house that can give shelter to a 2+2 family. Therefore the people are not willing to take a 30 year long loan, getting deeply in dept, risking homelessness for the entire family if one of the earners are out of the workplace for some reason. Now compare this to the situation 40 years ago, when 1 man earned a wage enough for 2 + 3 family. Now 2 earners cannot get the basic needs for a small family. Thank you AirBnB, courtessy of the USA. And thank you our politicians, who did nothing with the housing and living crisis. Instead of supporting the citizens and their people, they spent hundreds of billions for war, killing and destruction. Thank you.

@darrellmitchell765 2 ай бұрын

FACTS!

@joseenoel8093 2 ай бұрын

The way of things, nature is making it very difficult to raise kids, wonder why that is! My husband went beserk I was not putting them in daycare nor after school programs, if others aren't content with just the basics doesn't mean I have to be board with such unhappiness!

@user-ym4xy6us5e 2 ай бұрын

That's because women are being coerced to set aside their biological instincts, to take birth control, and squander the entirety of their fertile years on education and career. No wonder women squeeze out at best one child at a ripe old age instead of having three or six in their teens and twenties.

@Googleistheantichrist 2 ай бұрын

Don’t forget Blackrock and other companies like that that buy up low income homes and demolish them. Every migrant legal or not decreases wages for the citizens.

@searchingfortruth619 2 ай бұрын

A lot of this is secondary to cultural factors. The more you spend your time working, the more you need to hire other people to take care of other aspects of your life: cooking, cleaning, shopping, child care, home improvement, the list goes on and on. Women should have 100% the same opportunities as men. But it's not like women have been lounging around all day for the past several thousand years - women did a tremendous amount of very valuable work. Now, all those types of work are looked down on. The message is that if you want to contribute/participate in society, get a job and join the workforce. But there is SO much work to be done at home. Kids are suffering from psychiatric problems all over. So if the culture around families was different, you'd see a different kind of incentive structure.

@nhc63 2 ай бұрын

Unfortunately we have lost the true concept at the heart of Britain which was to put your family first, then community then country then the world. We should not hate living with our parents and be desperate to leave them behind, we should live with parents and grand parents and they should help us raise our kids and we should all live helping each other genorously. Look out for your neighbours and friends as well. If we buy British it will create jobs in Britain. We don't need cheap we need local. We need less globalism and more freedom of choice and free flow of information and value educating our young people on how to help their country with their choices.

@user-je7db7bi7i 2 ай бұрын

Of course you did, it was women who had that burden and it led to them being treated like slaves. It's still happening, which is why all these projections will under measure the problem.

@nhc63 2 ай бұрын

@@user-je7db7bi7i I would be inclined to disagree with that, I actually believe it was the Christian ethos that was against all forms of slavery and tyranny including inside domestic settings, to treat every human being with divine dignity. I think Christianity treated women far better than any other culture and it was because of this that we functioned so much better as a society and were able to progress so well. With women being treated well they wanted to help and contribute to support men and larger society and felt respected and capable enough. I will however say that another part of the ethos is to protect women and sometimes that can be interpreted as keeping them away from the dangers of the world, inside the homes etc, and whilst this may be out of love I do think it hindered women somewhat. I don't believe it to have been a form of oppression though as I don't believe the intent was malevolent or self serving. I think it was a natural extension of chivalry, walking women home meant they were safer, but saying not to walk home without a man to see you home safely could be viewed as controlling, even if it is out of consideration for the woman's greater well being. These things can be complex.

@seriousoldman8997 Ай бұрын

Bet your dad was perfect...

@clairejoy1053 2 ай бұрын

Lots of immigrants bring their parents with them. Modern society needs to make it easier for women to have children. It's really difficult today to loose an income.

@grannyannie2948 2 ай бұрын

True about bringing elderly parents. Immigration actually makes it more difficult for people to have children. It artificially increases the cost of housing whilst suppressing wages.

@asr_____ 2 ай бұрын

And brings insecurity and

@ickster23 2 ай бұрын

I don't think making it easier for women to bring children into the world makes a difference. It's pretty apparent to me that the age old myth of "women love children" is a lie. Now that they have the choice, we see they really don't want them.

@paigemccormick6519 2 ай бұрын

@@grannyannie2948 Maybe if governments did not subsidize immigration--or most economic conditions, and they left economies alone--the wages vs housing costs wouldn't be artificial. Grandparents--as pointed out--are good for families, Miss Granny. love

@funnythat9956 2 ай бұрын

@@grannyannie2948 The problem is inequality. Immigration happens because most people cannot afford the cost of most services at the fair price. E.g. tradesmen now often charge 3000 to 4000 £ a day. Who can pay for that. If an immigrant does it for 500 £ then I could afford it. The same is true for social care. On the “bright” side other people can afford Olympic size swimming pools in their home, or a helicopter or a Premier League football team. This excessive wealth is only possible if money is squeezed out of the average Joe Bloggs.

@theFijian 2 ай бұрын

Who ever said that we want small families? It's become too expensive to have more than two children

@marcozegikniet9301 2 ай бұрын

For most people it is already to expensive to have one child.

@tomatofeind2019 2 ай бұрын

Yep! Our nursery fees are 33k a year, luckily we can afford it but even with our salaries in London we feel it!

@Trazynn 2 ай бұрын

We're far poorer than we think.

@ginimoore5461 2 ай бұрын

One other thing not mentioned about Britain, is the number of British born people that emigrate. I live in Australia, and work in the health sector, we receive a significant number of UK immigrants every year- not complaining because they integrate well in our society, but it certainly contributes to this problem for the UK.

@Mike-br8zt Ай бұрын

Yes, I left the UK 30 years ago and my wife left Germany over 20 years ago - our kids are Australian, not German or British.

@RichardEnglander 2 ай бұрын

Fertility rates are so low in England because wages are so low and housing so expensive. Mass immigration and neoliberal Blairite globalism has led to this problem. It got much worse under the Tories, they didn't conserve anything apart from the National Debt. Why didn't they stop woke, stop mass immigration, prioritise British people for social housing? That would have kept the birth rate up, but instead of pro-natalist policies the Tories went with population replacement.

@skylinefever 2 ай бұрын

I suspect that all the politicians get sold to the same few people. That is why there is little change no matter who is elected. Vote for whatever puppet was selected by oligarchs.

@grannyannie2948 2 ай бұрын

It doesn't matter who you vote for, mass immigration and the impoverishment of the people will be the goal. This is not just a British problem, it's an Anglosphere problem.

@searchingfortruth619 2 ай бұрын

I know that child labor laws were established to combat some really brutal, dangerous, and abusive conditions in which children were working at the time. But there are two huge consequences with the way these laws are right now: 1) children are relegated to be children well into their teenage years, as they aren't given responsibility. They are treated like children, told they are children, and they act like children. So kids have a lot of trouble actually growing up. 2) children are a huge financial burden for a VERY long time. More children used to be an asset, but they'd be able to work. The current system bans children from contributing to the family's livelihood.

@grannyannie2948 2 ай бұрын

@@searchingfortruth619 For some reason my earlier comment??? Is not here. Children can and should be contributing to the running of the household doing the dishes or stacking the dishwasher etc. This is not ilegal. I also would argue that children are not expensive. In my country school uniforms are compulsory. So everyone dresses the same. So they need one nice outfit, some old play clothes and some pjamas. I don't live in the US but we do have Kmarts and all the above except school uniforms can be bought there for $5-10. And ofcourse kids need food. And it's normal to buy children a toy at birthdays and Christmas. Where is this big expense? One expense many parents do choose is private schools, but that's only because public schools have got so bad, and it's not technically necessary. By about 14 many kids have a Saturday job, not to contribute to the family, but to buy themselves nicer things. I think the problem is the high expectations of parents, not the cost of children. There is a general belief that parents should provide a higher standard of living for their kids than what they had as children. Why? Isn't it enough for kids to have what their parents and grandparents had.

@kalebdaark100 Ай бұрын

er no. The fertility rate in the UK had it's last serious peak in 1964 at 2.93 births per woman. It then crashed going below replacement level in 1973 and stopping in 1977 at 1.66. Since then we have never got back up to replacement level. We were back down to 1.63 in 2001, hit a high of 1.94 in 2010 and have been on a decline since then. While I would personally like to blame all the worlds ills on the last 14 years of Tory government and we are unlikely to increase the fertility rate without young people getting better access to cheaper housing, the problem started way before this last period of government, or Blair or neoliberal economics becoming the go to for policy and without the immigration our working, tax paying, population would be significantly smaller.

@j.s.c.4355 Ай бұрын

You do not need a growing economy if you have a falling population. All you need is for your economy to fall more slowly than your population.

@TheGringoSalado 2 ай бұрын

We don’t need to sugarcoat the fact that women have the tremendous blessing of bringing life into the world. In the west we sugarcoat working/career as preferable to motherhood.

@taliaeve969 2 ай бұрын

Society doesn’t value motherhood. Look at the motherhood hit working moms take when they have kids.

@Joshua-eo5hr 2 ай бұрын

Get rid of feminism and birthrates will rise

@Joshua-eo5hr 2 ай бұрын

Everyone complains about the low birthrate but no one will get to the solution because it's considered backwards to advocate for traditional values.

@chriswatson1698 2 ай бұрын

Mothers are penniless. They depend on another person to provide for their needs and their child's needs. And they can be discarded and forced into the poverty of single parenthood, against their will, at any time and on no grounds at all.

@Foomanlol 2 ай бұрын

@@chriswatson1698that's why alimony and child support exists. If you get hurt and can't work you will have nobody to depend on either. When you age, you won't have family to support you either. Now most people can barely survive on their own and have to have a roommate or gf/bf to help split bills so you end up in the same spot except lonelier.

@LadyMarigoldWithers Ай бұрын

Never met a man I would risk pregnancy for, they all wanted to look after number one first and lied about wanting to commit. Happily childfree, several others in my friend group too and my brother doesn’t want kids either as he loves travelling. I struggle to appreciate life as it is, lots of mental health problems in the past that I would never want to pass on.

@darknightbegins85 20 күн бұрын

I’m a guy, paid for an abortion and got a vasectomy. People who have kids give up everything. I like my hobbies and friends too much. I sure hope other people have kids tho.

@SeyhawksNow 2 ай бұрын

There's plenty of young people who don't want kids. There's also a lot who do, but can not afford it, with how bad the economy has gotten.

@arc_conference 2 ай бұрын

Indeed, it is a stark reality that Miriam rightly addresses in the podcast. We must foster cultures and economies that ensure people can afford to have children if they want.

@Pedant_Patrol 2 ай бұрын

@@arc_conferenceWe must foster cultures where people want to have children. Anything else is a dying culture.

@RichardEnglander 2 ай бұрын

@@arc_conference housing is too expensive because we have had wage stagnation and inflation of housing costs due to mass immigration and neoliberal globalist Tory policies opening our domestic housing market to global investors and corporations.

@RichardEnglander 2 ай бұрын

@@Pedant_Patrol yes, we must secure the existence of our people and a future for children. To not do is self imposed genocide.

@johnnyproctor 2 ай бұрын

The very idea that we must be able to "afford children" is a sign of idolatry. It is antithetical to human life, and is admitting defeat without effort. Poor children can become rich; children never conceived can do nothing.

@arc_conference 2 ай бұрын

Thanks for watching our second ARC Off-Stage Conversation! Subscribe to our Channel to be the first to watch the next episode: www.youtube.com/@arc_conference 00:00:00 - Introduction to Demographic Issues 00:03:20 - The Demographic Trilemma Explained 00:04:00 - Case Studies: Japan, UK, and Israel 00:07:10 - Analysing Future Scenarios: Economic Stagnation and Mass Migration 00:23:50 - Evaluating AI and Robotics in Addressing Labour Shortages 00:28:50 - Cultural and Psychological Impacts on Fertility Rates 00:31:30 - Pursuing Effective Strategies to Increase Fertility Rates 00:35:30 - Addressing the Root Causes of Fertility Decline and Reframing Policy Approaches

@paigemccormick6519 2 ай бұрын

I wonder if I could call it "cultural" continuity, not ethnic continuity. We need to share common cultural principles, broadly.

@arc_conference 2 ай бұрын

Good point!

@meagiesmuse2334 2 ай бұрын

Great point. Bringing in migrants from cultures with similar values will result in assimilation. But, it may not be possible for people with 7th century values to assimilate into the 21st century. They refuse to do so and end up on welfare, adding to the problem instead of solving it.

@FlashdogFul28 2 ай бұрын

They will change as the people change ethnic and cultral continuity are two sides of the same coin. technology and habit to group together will see the end of cultral dominace.

@smillabutryn7517 2 ай бұрын

New people will replace current population so nation as you knew it will extinct replaced by others.

@cerberus8666 2 ай бұрын

I wonder if we could call it inheritance rights instead of racism. XD

@poemsthatdontsuck5410 2 ай бұрын

Reap what you sow

@brianwolthers2762 2 ай бұрын

Can you please elaborate on what you mean.

@user-FUCKYOU18 2 ай бұрын

@@brianwolthers2762used your eye ,fool

@chriswatson1698 2 ай бұрын

A dependency ratio of 1:1 is generous. My father supported five other people as well as himself, in the 1960s, and 3 of us went on to tertiary education.

@xchazz86 2 ай бұрын

Consequences of outsourcing and wealth transfer to the top.

@marcozegikniet9301 2 ай бұрын

100% exactly that ! If you destroy the middle class and drown everybody into poverty and exploitation. People don't see a bright future for their kids.

@user-je7db7bi7i 2 ай бұрын

You mean men. Consequences of having men as part of the human world. All these problems came from men

@robbieshand6139 Ай бұрын

Agreed. The increasing shift to rentier economy that generates unearned wealth has benefited the already wealthy, but with the consequence that workers now have no chance of maintaining a household on a sole income. That's gone now. As a result, lower numbers of people having kids.

@user-je7db7bi7i Ай бұрын

No consequences of the existence of myales. We need to find where they came from and SEND THEM BACK

@JustynaAderek 2 ай бұрын

Universal Credit contributes to the problem as it does not take into account the invaluable role of women/mothers raising families. Under the old system mums were able to look after the children through their primary school age and seek employment once they go to High School. There was no need for nursery childcare as mums who wanted to look after their babies and families were able to do so. UC requires mums to be in work. Many support the idea as they have no clue how hard being a mum is. As mums, we are not respected but looked down at. Our input in raising the next generation is no longer considered meaningful. I have seen countless comments over the years from people describing children as 'vermin', mums 'breeding like rabbits' and many more derogatory words directed at our youngest. Young women reading those comments will only learn that to have children is to be considered 'low class'.

@gergelykollar7833 Ай бұрын

I love how every comment says that people are having less children, because they are poor. Nope. Every statistic shows that finances have nothing to do with this. It's education, lifestyle and culture. The more educated the more responsible someone becomes. Also learning takes a long time so certain goals in life are later achieved. Older people(late 20s, 30s) find partners much harder. The reason why people are having less children, because they do not marry young and they find partners harder. Our loneliness epidemic is the cause of declining childbirth. If we solve the issues that make the new generations lonely we solve the childbirth problem.

@cerberus8666 2 ай бұрын

When you speak of dynamic economies and slow growth, is this issue not tied to fiat currency, "monetary policy"? The ponzi scheme. Also, more workers don't necessarily translate into enfranchisement. There always seems to be more to it. America, for instance, was the most dynamic place on earth in the 50s when many women weren't in the workforce as we think of it now. So, maybe you can't have a singularity lol with low birth rates but you can have a lot going on. I think government policies are the reason for low birth rates in the first place.

@cerberus8666 2 ай бұрын

Wages really have not kept up with inflation.

@chriswatson1698 2 ай бұрын

In Australia we have had massive immigration for the last two decades. No economic dynamism happened. We just got a per capita recession and homelessness. Economic growth is destroying the earth.

@Rob1991Jager 2 ай бұрын

We are in the Forth Turing, the Beginning of the End

@RichardEnglander 2 ай бұрын

Absolutely, and Revolution is due

@chivomartinez 2 ай бұрын

We live in the age of cowards.

@rsa_guy3213 2 ай бұрын

Hence Ukraine,Gaza and Taiwan

@stayfree6115 2 ай бұрын

The kaleuga

@dellawrence4323 2 ай бұрын

Perhaps we would be better off selecting better immigrants, the kind who want to work and don't commit as many crimes as the kind we are getting now? Places like the Philippines makes very good migrants, they speak perfect English and are hard working and non confrontational.

@grannyannie2948 2 ай бұрын

That's because they are Christian

@chivomartinez 2 ай бұрын

Particularly culturally similar.

@SonOfMorning 2 ай бұрын

West cant live of foreing immigrants forever. They will ran out in 20 years anyways and there isnt enough Even If they were all well integrating and high skilled. How about just telling The citizens "we can not pay your pensions and the healthcare system on near future. Make your own safety nets"

@Ulrikestier 2 ай бұрын

If migrants bring a lot of people with them that don't work,is that still a blessing? For example one migrant worker brings his non-working wife and three children an his non-working parents and even his non-working parents-in-law, that would be one working person and eight non-working persons. Is that a good ratio?

@joolyun 2 ай бұрын

@@Ulrikestier😂 Very specific! Do you know of one?

@hanshoolmans3728 2 ай бұрын

It all boils down to TRUST. If people do not trust the politics and the way their long term vision is regarding properity. The present politics (left and right)are fearmongering fanatics promoting CO2 related disasters, envrionmental disasters, immigration fears, housing problems, labor shortages etc. All these fears cumulated in the social media have severe impact in the minds of young generations.

@Erinb8185 2 ай бұрын

One small thing that might help is education of women on their chances of reproducing over time. It was alluded to here but most childless women by 40 didn't intend to be childless. I know so many women in stable marriages who are over, or pushing, 30 but "don't want to rush to having kids." They think they can START trying around the age of 35 and it will be fine. Most had feminist moms like I did who, despite having kids in their 20s, encouraged their daughters to be career women and not worry about kids until later. Sadly, for many, your mid 30s is too late. Hopefully by then you can afford a go at IVF but that is SUPER expensive and there's no guarantee that it will work. Young women are told sweet lies about fertility and we need to stop.

@user-je7db7bi7i 2 ай бұрын

Well your mom encouraged her daughters to be career focused bc your dad was a piece of shit that your mom had to deal with and suffer through. Perspective.

@tracys3096 Ай бұрын

Most mums who had their children early and told their girls this, were concerned about their daughters being left financially stuck in soul destroying marriages.

@Jennifer-mv9pg 2 ай бұрын

Senior here, quite fit and healthy, approaching 70. Still working full-time! Partly to build up a retirement nest egg because my husband and I will not qualify for the pension because we have saved and invested over our working lives to enable us to self-fund our retirement. We also contribute to our family through providing babysitting services for our grandchildren - their parents need to all be working to afford to provide for these children. If the Western countries cannot produce a replacement population, then obviously immigration is needed. But we need to import the young, aspirational, hopefully fertile and hard-working who will contribute to both the labour force and the population. No point importing those who will only suck the welfare system

@derek4412 2 ай бұрын

You guys are heroes! If all parents planned ahead as far into the future as you the West wouldn't be in such bad shape. I'm 33, and my wife and I hope to be like you guys one day. Thank you for all you guys did and are doing!

@chivomartinez 2 ай бұрын

Also only import culturally similar people. Christians, Jews, nothing else.

@chriswatson1698 2 ай бұрын

Why must we produce a big replacement population? There will be a lower need for goods and services with fewer people. We need to stabilize the world's population and allow it to shrink naturally. Economic growth is a case of gobbling up the earth's resources at a faster and faster rate.

@chriswatson1698 2 ай бұрын

No, we don't need immigration. What we need is a reduction in the size of our total population. We need everyone in the world to do the same. Our country is twice the size that it was when I was growing up. Yet, with the population half its present size, there was no labour shortage. Immigration CAUSES shortages.

@chivomartinez 2 ай бұрын

@@chriswatson1698 only one problem with your proposal. Asian, middle eastern and African countries will continue to grow while we willingly fade into oblivion. What do you think it would happen then?

@eguogwuhenrietta9713 2 ай бұрын

Birthrate is also decreasing in african countries, there is high surge in the use of birth control, because of very harsh economic conditions

@manjushagongale 2 ай бұрын

You really think so. Go check the fertility rate. Majority countries still have birth rates above 3.

@adetolaayodele3425 2 ай бұрын

Not in Biafraland

@slayer2608 2 ай бұрын

It’s because they’re now moving to cities and not farm work anymore

@lisa6356 2 ай бұрын

It needs to be lower.

@user-je7db7bi7i 2 ай бұрын

@@manjushagongale you males really are deficient if sense. She said African countries also gave DECREASING birth rates, not below replacement birth rate. See, the DECREASING part comes first before one gets to belie replacement. Geez.

@shareathought769 2 ай бұрын

I'm American. I want to have kids and settle down. My boyfriend and I are too poor.

@grannyannie2948 2 ай бұрын

What exactly is your biggest problem and is it solvable?

@tropik5724 2 ай бұрын

Poor people have the most kids and they survive.

@marcozegikniet9301 2 ай бұрын

@@grannyannie2948 We live in e rigged system. You can't fix that on your own !

@LordRykard9376 2 ай бұрын

Just have kids. Incomes will get better over time.

@vivekkuma1 2 ай бұрын

With Dedollarisation it wil get worse.

@paulbrowitt7625 2 ай бұрын

Immigration is a very worldly topic nowadays . I think the concern is real. In Canada, the population in the Greater Toronto Area is now over 50% non born Canadians.

@user-yg1di4ui1t 2 ай бұрын

One thing we haven't taken into account is the value homemakers/stay at home parents bring to wider society. If indeed the value of having and caring for a child is $500k to $1 million we ought reevaluate the social status of mothers and child rearers. Right now the cultural zeitgeist considers people who devote themselves to their families as non-productive because they don't generate tangible value that can be measured in the immediate yearly calculation of GDP. If we assume someone devoting their productive years towards child rearing in terms of dollars then a mother who has 4 children and each is considered $1 million dollars worth of labor over the course of 20 years then that would be the equivalent of an individual earning $200k a year during that period.

@devilsadvocacy Ай бұрын

In my part of the world (California) people are having enough trouble keeping roofs over their heads. In my zip code, one has to earn US$50 per hour, working 40 hours a week, just to afford a one-bedroom rental. Having children? Who can afford to?

@BrizAU 2 ай бұрын

Blame greedy corporations. Historically, money was given to families with eight kids. Now, money is given to governments and corporations. Common sense.

@aizensama9141 2 ай бұрын

The conversation on this topic isn't really honest because people can't be honest about it. The elephant in the room on this conversation is that women value FREEDOM more. They can't have a kid without the man. Which is what women really want. And men can't accept the fact that. Men really like women more than, women like men. There's a whole lot of things that women like more than men. But that isn't the case for men.

@nhc63 2 ай бұрын

May you search your soul, the words you utter as untrue as they are harmful.

@Alex1233192 2 ай бұрын

he is right in some ways. There is proof in studies that men say that their wifes are their closest and best friend while women at lesser degree say that their best friends are their husbands. Also it seems that men are getting over a divorce harder than a woman and women are instigating divorces in 70% of the time. It is a sad reality that nowadays most women have feminist ideologies which makes them think that they can find their true fulfilment in work and not to value marriage or to accept leadership from men in marriage. I am not pointing fingers but plead with women to not believe the lies of feminism and rely on the old values or tradition and family ( christian values if you are a christian.

@joseenoel8093 2 ай бұрын

Omg they act like you're so lucky to have sick kids/sleepless nights/endless fights about homework, getting off the computer, feeding, cleaning is a joy we should embrace not to mention discipline and them and our husbands! Neighbourhoods all dead now moms have to time to talk, I'm supposed to be happy working 16 hrs a day just for the pleasure of having him crawl atop me at night after having a baby on me all day?

@joseenoel8093 2 ай бұрын

@@nhc63your unicorn's calling you!

@nhc63 2 ай бұрын

@@joseenoel8093 your bitterness is exposed, I would urge you also to search your soul, do you truly believe that you having difficulties means others do not, or that you understand what they struggle with. Perhaps it is due to your bitterness that they show it not to you, for it would be thrown back at them. I hope you find it within yourself to cast some love unto those who love you. Not giving much love to those who care for you is nothing to brag of.

@rizbotube 2 ай бұрын

Maslow’s Hierarchy Of Needs. People had kids when there was enough council housing, and they felt safe they had a stable home. For other luxuries they could cut their cloth accordingly.

@patrickleblanc613 Ай бұрын

Or when willing to make the neccesary sacrifices to have those children. In most cases unless you are incredibly wealthy, having children requires a great deal of sacrifice from some other aspect in life. Many are now just unwilling to make those sacrifices or just cant.

@spiritnone2818 6 күн бұрын

People had more kids than they do today under wars and famines, in incredibly poor societies and still do in some parts of the world. This discourse is delusional. It's not an issue of people being too poor.

@RichPober 2 ай бұрын

When governments allow their economies to become financialised to such an extent that young people have to choose between family formation and surviving as individuals, then the safer route to their financially secure future will be their default option. One speaker referenced the introduction of new technologies that will absorb the talents of the young as old industries wane and are replaced. However, today's new technologies have a short shelf-life and an expensive educational requirement to be able to engage in them within the employment market. As the young age, their educational needs will not cease in order to remain employable. Hence, the rapid pace of change within the economies of the developed world will mean that people's concerns about their employability into their futures will influence any decisions they make regarding family formation.

@asimwaheed8201 2 ай бұрын

House prices are a factor.

@arc_conference 2 ай бұрын

They certainly are...

@tomatofeind2019 2 ай бұрын

Money is the reason. My husband and i are high earners so luckily we can afford it, but our nursery fees are 35k a year for 2 kids. Most people cannot afford that and cannot afford to live off one income

@JustynaAderek 2 ай бұрын

Under Universal Credit mothers of young babies MUST go to work or they will loose their claim. It is so traumatic for babies and mums and it is to expensive/ impossible to survive on one, even two incomes without the top up from Universal Credit. About 80% of the UC funding goes to cover rent alone, which usually ends up in the pocket of the boomer generation as they bought up the houses as ‘investment’.

@MeandJesusaboveall 2 ай бұрын

We have to be prepared to live like the preindustrialized world with a few extra problems, the magnitude of old people and the few young. We have to shut down all the major cities and "undo" the last 200 years of poor decisions and how that is done I don't know. We just have to ask ourselves how much we are prepared to sacrifice to live like humanity was meant to. In my opinion we were not supposed to leave the farm and to urbanize! The harse truth is that all species will go extinct one day and humans have to stop valuing themselves above all others, we are animals like the rest, but all species also possess the need to preserve oneself but there is a limit to everything!

@carkawalakhatulistiwa 2 ай бұрын

House to expensive for new family . Old rich people have 4 home As an investment. Increase house prices

@Stoddardian 2 ай бұрын

Anglo countries are crippled by liberalism.

@user-je7db7bi7i 2 ай бұрын

No by patriarchy.fge conservative countries are falling much faster

@Stoddardian Ай бұрын

@@user-je7db7bi7i There are no conservative countries.

@minyaw1234 2 ай бұрын

As someone not from the UK. I was in London 20 years ago during school. That London is gone, it doesn't exist anymore. I do think immigration does kill a country as much as low birth rates do. Japan is still there, you can visit and you can still experience Tokyo for example, yes some new technologies are there, Japanese culture adapted, but if you want to experience Japanese culture you still can and future generation will be able to do as well. London, the way I experienced it and what it could be is dead. It has gone extinct. Never to be seen by a human again. (And please don't mention that this is time alone, yes time changes things but it would still have been British culture that adapted to this time.) This is just sad and a loss for humanity as a whole. I'd rather see London have less population that go extinct forever. And again, I'm not British. This is not nationalism, I say this as a tourist and visitor.

@blackbette07 2 ай бұрын

Tokyo and other large cities are fine. However, small cities and towns are getting old with no younger generation replacing them. It's not only immigration.

@bruhwhat4007 2 ай бұрын

You need to be wealthy to provide quality education for your kids so that they have a shot at conquering this economy and crushing the competition. I'd rather stay childless than doom child to a life of wage slavery and perpetual cope.

@Art-is-craft 2 ай бұрын

Not in certain countries.

@grahamashe9715 2 ай бұрын

To quote the late and renowned scientist, Carl Sagan (taken from his last book, ‘Billions and Billions’, published in 1997) with reference to overpopulation: "Our job is to bring about a worldwide demographic transition and flatten out that exponential curve-by eliminating grinding poverty, making safe and effective birth control methods widely available, and extending real political power (executive, legislative, judicial, military, and in institutions influencing public opinion) to women. If we fail to bring about a worldwide demographic transition... some other process, less under our control, will do it for us."

@FlashdogFul28 2 ай бұрын

Great conversation.

@TheGammelfjols 2 ай бұрын

the biggest problem is not manpower but lack of need .. in a supply and demand economy the absence of need will lead to deflation , we can't make robots need to consume. therefore this debate is not focused on the actual problem.. the problem as described with us not being able to have all Three is about the absence of need for consumption. consumption requires consumers.

@pier-annelachance4960 2 ай бұрын

The way we worked 30 years ago is really different than the way we will work in 30 years. Some concerns maybe that service industry can be outsourced. It is interesting to hear productivity is going down. In the end being grime as well is things like assisted suicide and other such policies also may become a problem. One of my biggest regret in my life now is that I did not have more than 3 kids because I believed people around me that told me that it was crazy to have more. I wish now that I am post prime fertility that I would have structured my life differently.

@andrewconway7730 2 ай бұрын

Great conversation!

@llyrthomas8580 Ай бұрын

Brilliant podcast! Thank you!

@katieburgess2176 Ай бұрын

I think the fact that we have told the recent generations that they are a curse on the planet for simply existing doesn’t help. Degrading motherhood by telling them they are ‘not working’ means motherhood is not valued. I know so many people childless people who are angry about the amount of their taxes that go to families- so short sighted. Our society pays what it values and women sacrifice their financial future hugely by having and raising children. Children are the meaning of life but I only realised this in my 40’s so I am very glad for my ‘surprise’ son in my twenties. There are so many factors that go into this.

@laurenpaer252 2 ай бұрын

He keeps citing 5-6 working adults to an old person. That does not sound like a normal or sustainable number. It sounds like an ephemeral event that gave the economy an extra boost. What is a more normal number? Maybe 3:1? I also didn’t hear a lot of talk about different type of immigration and backgrounds of immigrants/migrants. Someone with in-demand skills who speaks your language is very different than someone who doesn’t speak your language, has no special skills, and isn’t very motivated. Both types exist…and many are in between. How do they model this?

@sara_sofia_1984 2 ай бұрын

I want to have babies but I haven't found a husband yet, so not happening... 😢

@Yellowbeadmama 2 ай бұрын

You wilĺ ❤

@sara_sofia_1984 2 ай бұрын

@@Yellowbeadmama Thank you, I hope you are right. I'm running out of hope...

@Yellowbeadmama 2 ай бұрын

Your not running out of time,just keep an open mind, may God give you the desire of heart

@chriswatson1698 2 ай бұрын

Suppose you do find a husband who wants children? Always remember that there is NO marriage contract now. He can dump you at any time, on no grounds at all and take his earnings to share with a younger, childless woman. It happens all the time.

@sara_sofia_1984 2 ай бұрын

@@chriswatson1698 I trust my ability to discern who would be a good partner. I have made mistakes in the past and learnt from them. That's why I still am single now, I am waiting to find someone worthy of trust.

@rhubarb6565 2 ай бұрын

Cannot press reset on mass migration either. Never fully tested . Price is your country

@paigemccormick6519 2 ай бұрын

Thanks to Peter Boghossian for the previous introduction to Eric Kaufman.

@kitwanaabraham560 2 ай бұрын

When the commentator points out that Israel has chosen to have large families and high levels of immigration, he fails to mention that this phenomena has been one of the principal hallmarks of a classical settler colonial society over the last five hundred years. After all, a settler colonial people cannot hope to displace a large indigenous population from a land with few immigrants and families having few children. Israel is simply doing today what the British, Dutch, French, Spanish, Portuguese and the Germans did all over Africa, the Americas, Oceania and Australia from the 15th through the 19th centuries.

@patrickdial5810 2 ай бұрын

On a world level, the population of the planet since the Industrial Revolution has grown more quickly than they could be absorbed. The fall in population is merely Nature bringing about an EQUILIBRIUM and in this age when Europe is still leader, the role of pioneer of population reduction has fallen to Europe. Asia, especially India and China , will soon be following with Africa being the last to catch up. Today, the human being is valued less than he/she was three or four centuries ago; with the passing of every decade and the lowering of the world's population, the human being becomes more valuable. Integration of people of different cultures in a host society is inevitable; the real problem is the speed of integration. The present anxieties Europeans have, could be tempered by this understanding. I come from Guyana, which despite our small population, many of the same anxieties are shared.

@herambaanjaneya2041 2 ай бұрын

Not a chance in an extremely high housing cost country! National house prices are over 8 times income and private rents are very, very high! Mass immigration horribly adds to an already very serious housing shortage problem! Overall the UK is VERY high tax and heating and energy costs are absolutely extortionate! Nobody wants kids in the face of this and few can afford it anyway!

@stevesmith3990 2 ай бұрын

Really interesting talk, thanks.

@arc_conference 2 ай бұрын

Glad you enjoyed it!

@LaboriousCretin 2 ай бұрын

It's nice to see people talking about this. The lady is right about future immigration. As Africa develops more, the birth rates will drop also. There is a short time countries will be able to import immigrants from the countries that have higher birth rates. If the world population hits 10.5 or 10.7 billion before dropping. From current statistics. That, along with development in places. Gives you the time ranges before it gets harder. A.I. and robotics will help and also compound things. The replacement curve is somewhat in the mix of it all. Genetics part. 1) If the T levels and sperm counts are dropping in the affected countries. Then that's also one thing to look into and tackle. Before future male sterility in future generations. More data is needed to verify or debunk the theory. Also, if so, biochemical agents might need to be looked at. 2) The various deep genetic pools. Extrapolating out. Some diffusion, but some genetic pools hollow out. Birth gap with migration. Thank you for sharing this video. Good luck with tackling the problems.

@8028rsj 2 ай бұрын

We need to start going back to Church as a family and society

@marcozegikniet9301 2 ай бұрын

No thnx. Population control is terrible. Religion is a rich man scam to keep the majority poor and stupid. And believing in fairytales with no proof and evidence is not a smart thing to do !

@andrewh2u 2 ай бұрын

In the UK the population is growing through tax socking low skilled economic migrants who also bring in and grow large families of social welfare leeches.... the crime is another subject. In contrast to this, there are a high number of highly educated and skilled UK citizens who have fled through skilled immigration to more welcoming and less Woke better governed countries. Whenever I visit the UK then its more and more like a developing country.... developing into a third world state.

@theultimatereductionist7592 22 сағат бұрын

With bionanotechnology we should work to REVERSE AGING, and achieve LEV (Longevity Escape Velocity) so those of us who ALREADY exist (AND DESERVE to exist!) can LIVE FOREVER and LIVE YOUNG forever. And if we want to breed a few more people, then create ARTIFICIAL WOMBS so women won't suffer childbirth. We should fight to MAXIMIZE AS MUCH LABOR AS POSSIBLE BEING DONE BY ROBOTS. My biotechnology courses in community college 2007-2009 were taught by women and the vast majority of the students in the class were women. So I saw large support of bionanotechnology from women.

@TheGrindBoardGame 2 ай бұрын

Get rid of Government

@coreydonohoe8121 Ай бұрын

It would seem that many older people who have been pushed out of the corporate workforce would benefit from lower costs in developing countries who would in turn benefit from their wisdom and experience. Convincing them to leave their families and grandchildren (if any) for an unfamiliar place with a higher crime rate and possibly another language could also prove problematic. This would be an interesting topic that no one is discussing.

@sharonsloan 2 ай бұрын

There are elderly people looking after elderly people now, that's care in the community and keeping people in their homes as long as possible. The 1 person will have up to 8 care workers a day attending them at home. This still costs less than the £600+ a week care homes for those who can't stay at home anymore.

@user-mh7vx6wh5u Ай бұрын

They discussed many things but the most important issue wasn’t discussed as to why decline occurring! The cost of living crisis, housing costs, the higher costs of child care just to mention few! I’m sure if those issues were addressed we wouldn’t need refugees most of us don’t want

@theukeconomist6518 2 ай бұрын

Have you spoke to women in their 20s, i would assume many would say they want a man in the top percentage of earners, meaning only a small percentage of men are desirable for marriage. I think you should look at the dating resesrch that shows at least 80% of men are undesirable to women. I think you need to understand how younger people are dating and what women actually want in a man in modern Britain, otherwise you will not understand why the birthrate is declining. The question should be, how do you convince women to settle for average earning men as there is not enough six figure earning men for every woman?

@sabijea 2 ай бұрын

maybe because they know that children are expensive and that they cannot be part of the workforce for a while, and they maybe want to give their offsprings the best start conditions. This is actually not a bad mindset, because nowadays it is more difficult to climb the social ladders so it is better as a child to start as high as possible, and unfortunately, you really need a very good income to provide a decent living as a man for yourself and your family, that might be the problem …

@donz0621 2 ай бұрын

@@sabijea I agree, it's for the child's benefit. I think this is how humanity evolves. Selecting partners who can provide their child with physical strength, financial stability and intellectual prowess is not only survival of the fittest but also evolutionary

@johnlesoudeur3653 2 ай бұрын

@@donz0621 Is that why there are so many single moms?

@MB-xv7er 2 ай бұрын

Good that’s how it should be. The issue is men are all too comfortable bringing children into poverty. I’m happy women are shutting that down

@user-je7db7bi7i 2 ай бұрын

@@donz0621well actually that's how humanity was to begin with. It was men who removed women's ability to sexually select. They thought it would stay like that forever

@castirondude 19 күн бұрын

Here in Texas there is also a "missing youth" issue, but I do see a cultural shift happening. 10 years ago when we took our children to stores, we would often get negative remarks, but not anymore. Most people are happy and positive when they see parents with young children. Last week we had a Vacation Bible school at our church and we had more than 40 children which is an all time high for us. This week one of the young ladies organized a baby care class for new parents. She borrowed our anatomically correct boy and girl dolls for the purpose LOL. That's how we do it. Find the people who have the interest to have children and help them on their way. We need to stop talking about government programs. The less government we have the better.

@nickb220 2 ай бұрын

canada's getting those immigrants as we speak lol

@TimBitts649 2 ай бұрын

Movie Reference: Idiocracy. Video Reference: Elon Musk, Having Kids is a Social Duty.

@dianenorman3209 2 ай бұрын

The only thing I got out of all of this is that human beings are all connected in fact we are all one.

@user-je7db7bi7i 2 ай бұрын

No we are not. Women are different from men. And the problem are men. Once we stop producing men we will see all these problems stop

@munaciello 2 ай бұрын

gen z will be majority childless

@jasonsherlock7480 2 ай бұрын

you need to do something with the rediculous mic setup... i like to watch while people are talking but really..which kindergarten put this together??

@villhelm 2 ай бұрын

You can solve all these problems and have all three when you get rid of fractional reserve banking, which is the root cause of needing exponential growth of an economy. If you have a hard money system and no usury, then you can have a thriving economy and no growth.

@user-sp1rn6bz4g 2 ай бұрын

You are forgetting the influences of AI on our technology this will reduce the population requirements. The immigrants currently are not educated or able enough to assist in our future aconomy, the language is also a barrier for new immigrants

@joshb.9380 Ай бұрын

No mystery to any of this, and affordability is not even close to the biggest factor in why people are having fewer children. The cost of raising children is grossly overstated in most discussions I’ve heard, and many of the biggest complainers seem to somehow find funds for all kinds of other “standard of living” frivolities. Quite simply, many people prioritize other things over settling down and having children, such as career, education, travel, leisure time, “freedom,” status, addictions, sleeping around, or hunting for some idealized partner that doesn’t exist. It is not that many in past generations didn’t have these same priorities, it is just that before the proliferation of easily available and effective birth control, these people were probably going to have kids regardless unless they lived like monks. Now that people have the freedom to choose sterility, many will take it, allowing them to better pursue those others priorities. Of course, as this video discussed, this comes with obvious ramifications for society as a whole.

@j.s.c.4355 Ай бұрын

Three points you misstate or don’t address: 1) a 50% old age dependency ratio isn’t 1:1; it’s 1:2, so you’re overstating the case. 2) According to the UN forecasts, the UK could stabilize its dependency ratio until 2050 by gradually raising retirement age by 5 years, so yeah, that’s a strategy that works well for a long time. Finally 3) you’re ignoring the child dependency ratio, which gets better and better until 2040; so there are more resources to be put toward the elderly.

@cmmndrblu 2 ай бұрын

Incentivise ppl to have kids. Give married families tax breaks for having kids, subsidise daycare. Subsidise first time buyers.

@chriswatson1698 2 ай бұрын

You have to ensure that mothers are not punished for having children and caring for them. Children's needs are both unpredictable and often inconvenient. The only fair division of parental responsibility is for both partners to share equally the inconvenience and to both have equal time and energy to devote to acquiring skills, experience, knowledge, contacts and seniority that have monetary value in the workplace. But then, neither parent would have a career. When a woman takes time off work, or chooses a job that allows her to care for her family, she is investing in the earning capacity of the children's father, at the expense of her own. Yet she has no control over the income that she is supporting. Her children's father benefits from her unpaid labour for the rest of his working life, long after he has abandoned his family to partner with a younger, childless woman. After separation, the woman who retains custody of her children, continues to subsidize her ex-husband's earning capacity, by relieving him of the inconvenience of his own children's needs.

@kugbnorthstaffs8348 2 ай бұрын

In principle that sounds like a great idea ... in-practice it hasn't made any difference in Poland and other countries that have tried it.

@marcozegikniet9301 2 ай бұрын

Livable wages and healthcare. And a decent welfarestate for economic crisis when there are no jobs.

@niqjaw5009 Ай бұрын

Having kids is selfish. Since when has having kids been in the interest of the kid? No-one ever asked to be born.

@FluxNomad678 2 ай бұрын

Get economic cost of living issues under control. Make a pitch to Americans and Canadians as well as an immigration guidance program. Especially to College Age young people if the UK can persuade them affordable education and middle class life can be found abroad. There is a justifiable resentment here to monopolies squeezing the working class or upending the housing market.

@michaelb9683 Ай бұрын

Shortages oh you mean people won’t work for free ?

@antonymangu3458 2 ай бұрын

If you don't want people coming to your country, stop going to others countries with your affairs ,Japan don't impose her affairs to other people around the world

@tecomaman 2 ай бұрын

Children don't need to go to university and this will enable women to have more children ,if they have business the children can work there

@joseenoel8093 2 ай бұрын

University is good otherwise you've crap back breaking shit paying job

@les9892 Ай бұрын

Miriam, via Stephen Shaw, hits it right on the head with finding a way of getting that first child born to a married couple.

@stevensosebee7452 2 ай бұрын

I think people are not talking to young men about this. Yes woman have the kids but you need a man also and from what i see tons of young men are just silently saying no.

@nhc63 2 ай бұрын

They believe they have their reasons, but it certainly isn't helping solve the problem, maybe it will yield something long term thpugh

@shumoon1 2 ай бұрын

6:10 Despite a high birthrate, Israel still has to import labour, as was demonstrated by the fact that some of the hostages released after 7 October 2023 were Thai labourers. OECD countries have to contend with the fact that there are some jobs their citizens will not fill, and that immigration will always have some role if a nation wants to maintain economic dynamism.

@user-ft5kh5um1r Ай бұрын

Cause haredi only reproduce but don't work

@zeno2501 2 ай бұрын

It's over, sadly.

@apebass2215 2 ай бұрын

Just as Bezmenov warned - Stage 1: Demoralisation

@squeaker19694 2 ай бұрын

8 billion humans and all their pets and livestock make up at least 96% of the weight of animals on Earth. I think we've gone beyond Earth's carrying capacity. We need to collapse gracefully or nature will force it on us.

@eguogwuhenrietta9713 2 ай бұрын

I want to have many children but not married yet, I think many women are now thinking positively towards having more children.

@Erintii 2 ай бұрын

Small minority of women truly dislike idea of being mother. I am one of them and I am outlier. Nothing will make want a child but a lot of ppl want family but housing crisis and cost of living is making it hard. Hard to plan having kids if ppl can barely make ends meet. I consider having no kids as blessing,but for others this is a tragedy. I fully support programs to help families. All I want back to leave me alone.

@darknightbegins85 20 күн бұрын

39, American in USA, attorney, vasectomy. Couldn’t pay me to have kids

@james.3073 2 ай бұрын

2 points, birthrates may be decreasing in developing African nations such as Kenya and Botswana, but in countries like South Sudan they are increasing and unsustainably so. The lowering of the infant mortality rate has not been counterbalanced by education about family planning. Education and infrastructure resources cannot keep up, so there will be an increase in future of immigrants from these countries to the west that do not have the educational rbackground to contribute so will actually become a burden. Secondly, i like to think, even though we were not recipients, that the John Howard baby Bonus of 5k in Australia during the 90s actually did encourage people to have more babies, would be interesting to know historically if there was something of a peak before it was removed.

@winterskiU 2 ай бұрын

Literally every Nation in Africa has a falling birth rate including South Sudan, what numbers are referencing when you say they are increasing? 40 years ago it was around 8 it is dropped down to 4.3 (2023) and just like everywhere else continues to fall.

@grannyannie2948 2 ай бұрын

Almost all of Africa has falling birthrates. I agree they don't do well here. Maybe census results would show how successful the baby bonus was. I do know some young couples who saw it as a short cut to saving a house deposit, and therefore having their first baby a couple of years earlier.

@james.3073 2 ай бұрын

@winterskiU you are correct, birthrates have decreased by 1.04% since 2021, however infant mortality has also decreased by 1.84% this gives a net increase in survived births.

@winterskiU 2 ай бұрын

@james.3073 Well yes, the same thing occurred in Europe. People had a larger number of children as many would die before adulthood. As infant mortality rates decrease, it still takes a while for the population to adjust. But adjust they do, so whilst the population increases (and the increase is also because of longer life expectancy), the rate of growth decreases and eventually leads to a population decline. Everyone (except maybe Israel) is on the same roller coaster ride 🎢 just some are in the front.

@carlosbarreira1341 2 ай бұрын

Maybe the focus should be making a transition to a global sharing economy instead of a competing one. Might sound utopian but it is not impossible, maybe AI and other machinery can help, and a few more thousands of years!!

@user-je7db7bi7i 2 ай бұрын

There will always be competition as long as men. Exist. That is what fractured the world into tribes to begin with

@TheChadavis33 2 ай бұрын

I’ll take their opinions on the birth rate and how that effect the economy seriously, but on AI, not so much.

@Gone2TxInspect Ай бұрын

Good

@TrackProbe Ай бұрын

When people are young they should get good education and good jobs. If technology keeps changing what is the point? We cannot keep learning new technology? Most people would like clear laws, a strong community and family. People have very little mental stamina and resilience.

@playlistofthegods 2 ай бұрын

People are not Choosing to have less children, they cannot afford them. The socialist policies of high and progressive tax are stifling. If we changed to a Family Tax rate instead of taxing mum and dad as individuals would go a long way to keep mums freed up to focus on children. Or vise-versa if the situation arises. If my wife and I could double the tax bracket rates and pay taxes as a couple, her income after tax would almost be saved by us paying less tax on my wage, she would not have to work for us to maintain the same level of domestic finance. Let's let people keep their money instead of stealing it with taxes, allow wealth creation. Teach people about how to invest correctly. They can self-sustain in retirement. No need to support old people if you don't make them disabled financially in the first place. Support families, you will also get less crime and incarceration rates with that as well. Robots don't pay taxes.

@Art-is-craft 2 ай бұрын

A married tax rate that is significantly lower would go a long way to encourage marriage. And for each child a lower tax rate until it reaches 0 taxes for 5 children. Promote a low regulation economy and then watch decades of booming economics.

@TheSnoopyclone Ай бұрын

You should check out what sean malstrom says about this from his blog post. It's an interesting read.

@Troydigga 2 ай бұрын

Raise mothers not career slaves

@nathanngumi8467 2 ай бұрын

Great discussion, much food for thought. A demographic cliff beckons.

@arc_conference 2 ай бұрын

Great comment, much encouragement for us!

@Shikuesi 2 ай бұрын

@@arc_conference How is a demographic cliff an encouragement to anybody?

@dustin2269 2 ай бұрын

Economic insecurity.

@jamieharknett9620 2 ай бұрын

The biggest reason why population has fallen off of a cliff is because we are swimming in entertainment and pornography. Studies have shown that when you are exposed to super stimuli your will to procreate falls off dramatically.

@marcozegikniet9301 2 ай бұрын

No it is economics. Of you loot the whole country for 50 years and destroy the whole middle class. The majirity end up in poverty. And that will alway's stagnate birthrates ! In America 80% live paycheck to paycheck and most of them need 3 garbage jobs. Not working for a living, but only live to work. For garbage wages.