Why China will be back! Five reasons to keep China on your radar!
#chinasnewnormal
TIMESTAMPS
00:00 Why we need to keep China on our radar
00:28 Reason 1: The narratives. This is about democracies versus autocracies that is a false narrative. This is a narrative to keep the Western world as unipolar or bipolar world.
01:58 The real narrative is about the West versus the Rest that wants to live in a multipolar world instead of bipolar world. The reason is that the non-Western world wants to be able to make choices of their own.
05:17 Reason 2: The illusions. This is the lens we put on China that defines if we believe China is going up or down. Most people in the West believe that China is more about control than about strength since the 20th Party Congress is concluded. Most people in China seem to think the opposite.
07:28 Why did the Western perception on China become so negative since 2017 about? Because China changed, but not more than it has over the 40 years before that. As China has been constantly changing direction since 1978, it is our view of China that has changed more than China has itself. Of course since 2017 China's change is more visible to the world and less aligned with the worlds direction. But that does not mean the direction is wrong. The issue is that the Western world looks at China in a binary fashion instead of a AND mindset.
10:50 Li Qiang, the new premier next year is a clear example of being at times protective of China and more closed, and at other occasions very open and reaching out to the world. This is the AND mindset of Chinese where the situation dictates the direction. To understand that, we need to look at China as colourful, not black and white or binary.
14:07 Reason 3: The winter ahead. There is a global winter that is affecting China just like anywhere else. We are having one crisis after another. On top of that, China has still many domestic problems to deal with as well as global tensions that make it quite vulnerable.
16:38 China's new leadership seeks stability and security above all, because of the harsh winter China is in and will keep facing for some while. China has cleaned up its house over the past 3 years and is now preparing for the spring coming to China after the harsh winter. A spring that should come before the Western spring emerges. China is cyclical, and so after tough moments, there are always moments of opportunity coming along.
19:46 Reason 4: The hidden gems. This is about looking beyond the visible world of primarily infrastructure building that might come to a slowdown. We should look at the invisible world instead to see the big picture of China for the rest of this decade.
21:01 The invisible world or digital world is what is really transforming China now. That change has not stopped. This is about smart cities, smart logistics to make everything faster, cheaper and more convenient to do business and live in. This is about China's factory becoming the green factory of the world and about China changing the game of the digital financial world where the US dollar will be less powerful over time. China is easily 5 years ahead in the invisible transformation of society.
23:33 Reason 5: The unexpected. We should stop always thinking the Chinese bubble will pop as we are underestimating the resilience of China, but also the fact that the problems are not avoided. We need to look more below the waterline to understand the future of China.
24:53 Some examples about China's potential direction. Instead of looking at the narrative of decoupling, why not look at why most successful global companies active in China are doubling down on investment? Instead of looking at the crackdowns and new regulations of China, why not look at the uplifting of millions of Chinese into the middle class this decade which will create opportunity? Or look at how the middle class is now getting ready for Chinese metaverse or digital China 2.0? Instead of looking at China's political influence it gains across the world, why not look at the tsunami of entrepreneurs and businesses that are getting ready to flood the European and other markets? We should be less worried about at the story of control and look more at the story of positive disruption to understand China's future.
30:53 We are getting into a world of protectors versus bridge builders. As long as try to protect the best seat at the beach we will not be ready for the tsunami coming to us when China is back.
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