Tiny units with high prices and high maintenance fees in poorly managed buildings. That sums up the bulk of the Toronto condo stock.

I live in Midtown Yonge Eglinton. I decided to move out. My landlord’s been struggling to find a new tenant. It’s a shoebox studio condo priced $1900 ... he has until july1st to find someone new.. I think he’s struggling so bad

These are not homes. These are shoeboxes nobody wants to live in for more than 6 months.

One thing I noticed with these new condos is that almost none of them have parking anymore. Studios, 1-beds, 1+1s and even 2-beds don't include a parking spot. In a good area a parking spot will run you 100k+

Realtor here. I have never represented a client who actually wants to buy a small new condo and live in it themselves. In 9 years. My clients that want to live in condos buy the old units in old buildings without amenities for the square footage. Developers need to take note. Investors are not incentivized to buy these now.

The great thing about you is you present reality with clarity the new pre condos are 2 expensive for first time buyers and the numbers do not work for investors.

The last couple of years the population growth in Canada is largely driven by students and temporary workers. These individuals are unlikely to stay in condos where a one-bedroom unit rents for $2,500. Instead, many seek more affordable options, such as basement rentals in Brampton and Mississauga, which are in high demand product. However, new immigration rules are expected to slow the influx of students and temporary workers over the next couple of years.

the greed of developers has finally caught up with them, we could stop building condos for 50 years and still have a surplus, they've over saturated the market with low quality, half empty buildings noone want to live in used as investment properties, they've focused on maximizing their profit at the expense of our city paying for the infrastructure.. maybe now they can build rental housing which is what our city actually needs, not cater to the small section of society who can afford to buy property..

There is a seeming boom in the rental market (GTA and especially outside/GTA+ area) for several reasons including CMHC/MLI Select Financing - would be interesting to compare that side to see if it's having a tangible impact on pre condo construction (ie developers potentially opting for a rental project compared to condo)

I really love the honesty! Resale condos are also down btw.

People will leave Canada. Simple as that.

Hey love your content! I was wondering if you've ever done similar analyses for the Quebec housing market?

I'm here for the comments.

What about condos outside downtown T.O. which are not sub 700 sq ft? I never see this segment mentioned but they are a big part of the relatively livable space. P.S. Great video!

Thanks for the this video. It should be interesting to see how things will play out in the next 6 years from now.

I enjoy the insights you provide

someone's been busy, Precondo 3D is amazing Thanks Jordon !

I'm curious if you have any idea why condo sellers refuse to reduce their prices? Supply and demand states that if you can't get a sale at a particular price, you need to reduce the price in order to sell. Are they all just losing money because they think lower interest rates will save them?

Fuck he’s back… there goes my subscriber growth trend

Great video! Missed you. The investors going to Calgary aren’t necessarily Toronto locals, flight difference doesn’t matter.

Hats off..... ❤ For your very honest forecast

Interested to hear your take on the role of the Ontario Landlord Tenant Board in investors shying away from investing in the GTA and preferring to invest in Alberta.

Good to have you back

There need to be new laws for management standrds that guarantee pools and things are properly serviced, like food, random inspections and big fines

Thank you so much! This was GREAT!!

So if developer costs are so sticky and profit margins already at a minimum, the only way for condo prices to go down more from here is something catastrophic like a mass bankruptcy of developers with inventory being sold at deep discounts in liquidation proceedings

One of few who are willing to highlight the current market…honestly.

Welcome back.

Condo market looks pretty dead here in Montreal too

However preconstruction has also had very little supply..

Very interesting video. Loving the 3d model!

in your opinion, is this a good time to invest in the toronto condo market or is it better to wait since there is such a bear market going on?

The central bank raised interest rates 10 times between March, 2022 and July, 2023, bringing its benchmark rate to 5 per cent from 0.25 per cent in one of the most aggressive monetary policy tightening campaigns on record. It has held the policy rate steady at 5 per cent over the past six rate decisions. Condo prices have not declined in a way consistent with these increases. Could that be why new condo sales are so low. Should owners be reducing prices to sell?

Same with Kitchener Waterloo I’d assume?

Mass layoffs in union construction jobs. Low-rise sector. Heard of a drywall company that once had 200 employees, they are now at 40 and looking to cut more.

People laugh when the stock bubble chart were posted in 2022. We are now in Fear stage. Then Capitulation, Despair and Return to normal. Human emotions never change.

Thanks for this video!

You're back

While listening to this video, all I could think is condos are overvalued. I think they decrease around 10-15% more across the board.

Great breakdown

What about current developments who’ve gone bankrupt? The condo tower near Yonge & Bloor “The One” which is left half built they defaulted on 1.2 billion in loans

Wait till you have a major issue in the unit and learn who pays for what. Or how quick the condo board wants to put a lien on your unit for excess expenses they charge to you because it’s your units fault.

that 3D model really shows the future of Toronto... all the blue, massively over priced units purchased from the builders in the recent years... when they come due now and in the next few years... all units will sell for less. I assume those " investors" will only be able to take equity out of their primary home to close or get out of the deal. Cut the loss.... just heard from a lawyer friend of a building in Toronto... don't have the address but 2 different people, same building, units purchased for 770k.... 550 ish sq ft.... both assigned for 500k. took the loss of 270k and have to re-finance primary home.... biggest loss and will take forever to recover from these losses..... and not many talking about it.

Can they just build units to RENT? Condos are a terrible investment and they are too small to actually live in. Just a waste for all involved.

Well lots of us can't afford houses on a single salary and the amount of people not getting married is larger so it's not like nobody buys condos to live in. I did not for investment but to live in and the reserve on my board is huge. People also buy with zero research.

That’s okay. With all the buildings still going up, it will mean a drop in prices.

When prices are out of range for most people no wonder sales are lagging. Sell something that people want and affordable I bet it would be sold out instantly

And yet builders and developers keep building them…so the numbers must somehow work, otherwise they wouldn’t build. Also I wonder why so many single family houses are being demolished and new houses are being built, instead of just being renovated. Your comments?

Affordability or stagnant income a factor - Prices beyond the reach of the average wage earner -

Ngl the 3D map of the city would be dope art/merch to sell! I would blow up - frame and put it in my stu! 😁

If the condo market is so bad why all these new buildings planning to be built? 9 building alone are going to be built in the Cloverdale mall area. I can’t see them all being sold. This is not including new buildings planning to be built along dundas from Islington to 427. Time to move to cottage life😊

Tiny floor plans with all square footage for amenities. You go to the apartment to sleep. They have bar, Libraries gyms, pools etc. Units built for single millionaires.

East Durham non-boutique new build over 1100/sqft…let’s watch.

great content

If we do not have some crazy government policy - like rent controls - the market will come back when buildings can be rented at a price that rents to cover expenses !

How about Vancouver

Maybe they could move some of these units if prices drop 50-60%.

"It's a little odd" haha

When will we see the real price crash of 40-50% of the housing market in the GTA?

The market is smarter than any one puny human. Sales are down, prices are down, rents are down but population is up. The market is telling you your predictions might be very wrong. Be very careful young man. Be prepared for the very unexpected. You youngies have no experience with a market depression.

Construction starts plummeting while immigration is surging. What a nightmare for the market.

Justin Trudeau “we’re gonna build 3.9 million homes by 2031!” Housing industry “But HOW?? Interest rates sky high! Nobody’s buying, so we can’t build!” JT “Aahhhh, we’re gonna build 3.9 million homes by 2041!”

Done!

You also promod calgary heavily..

economy class to Calgary, let's go!

Developers are putting a full stop as they cant get what they want per sq ft not the costs. Also like all these are over priced sboe boxes. Take most of Air BNB and see where supply goes.

Precon challenges and immigration trends should favour resale pricing and sales especially when interest rates slowly move down. Resale currently reflects rate impacts on highly leveraged investors. Price movement is plateauing. That’s it. Basic economics.

4:10 if anyone hasn’t realized yet that Trudildeau did this intentionally then I don’t know how to help you. Don’t worry, I’m sure BlackRock will swoop in and buy them to rent back to the public.

Welp, that was depressing.

Come to Guatemala. Invest here. Precon Market is very steady

New ghettos all over Toronto now

I'm sure people will buy them if the prices are reasonable

Canadas population growth compared to toronto retail market... Shouldnt we be comparing toronto population growth? If the majority of people are moving to another province that would effect demand

I work in these installing plumbing system's. Some of them are absolutely tiny inside. Rediculously small. Making USSR commie blocks look generous!

2 bed condo market not too bad. 1 bed market is stale

More and more renters need to share a place. Dog-crate condos are too opulent for Canada's renters.

Condos is not investment in Ontario ever. You might even loose in the long run. Its all part of the conservative plan of Ontario.

where are all the new immigrants moving into? Serious question...

maybe if they all did not look the SAME SLIDING DOORS in a BEDROOM! HORRIBLE KITCHENS ETC ETC ETC

Housing has been stagnant during massive inflation. It's already crashing by 20-30%.

Correction coming… stop thinking “it’s coming back”, when it hasn’t corrected yet.

Will things change tomorrow after the BoC changes its tune?

I have 3 condos currently in Toronto. One of then used by my daughter attending university. Closing on two more within 2 years. I am living in Quebec City. All precon purchased.

Ali express money pits. Ford’s legacy for cutting the red tape to build.

I warned you that U.S. stocks were a better investment than Canadian dirt. Sorry you all got rekt. 😂

Ok, I’ll say the potentially unpleasant. “If you had to choose between investors and immigrants, which would you choose?” I’ll even give the answer that should be deemed correct. Immigrants bring money into Canada in significant amounts and they also generally have high skill levels because of how our immigration works. Investors simply try to flip houses and when they do they cause the prices to inflate away from average Canadians. Laws control which you get: investors or immigrants or both or neither. The Five Eyes countries have allowed many more immigrants over the last 5 years, although the UK and Australia very recently are trying to pull back. The reasoning for all countries increasing immigration was to increase GDP. Flip the script and see what you get. Stop immigration. Let Condo inventory go to 15,000-20,000 and what do you think is going to happen. Interest rates will go down, and investors will come back? Who will the investors think that they are selling to? The premise that there are massive amounts of buyers on the sidelines waiting for some drop in the rates, and who are willing to buy at these “still inflated prices” is nonsense. Also, with the increasing debt loads of many of those on the sidelines, any drop in interest rates won’t stop them from merely treading water for a long time. Immigration keeps the Ponzi scheme playing more reasonably, than the investor Ponzi scheme, and ultimately there is a choice.

UBI (Uni Basic Income) will subsidize 50% of the Condo Rentals by 2028. Great plan, and a great restructuring of social democratic affordable housing for people with incomes lower than $60,000

Trudeau wants civil unrest. I agree with you, "unhinged" is the perfect word re: immigration vs supply

TO is done!

The biggest scam extra money on necessary things like security pools mentenence fees up to 700 to 1000 for what so builders can collect money for nonsense the banks and government should step in and tell them max 300 per month and that is plenty.

😈

Population is a funny thing and ofc I'm no expert; however if you look at many countries inthe world, there are very aging populations; many large countries are going to be old people with few kids, cratering their production, cratering their economies, presenting all kinds of problems, over the next 20 years; it is commonly estimated that Canada is one of the few that might have a leg up here, due to a fairly large immigration of _young people_. So, it _is_ weird on a lot of fronts nowadays, but maybe it will pay off 10 years or more from now, we'll have to see. The problems come now, but the payoff comes later is the promise. Tough to swallow when our young today are screwed for jobs, screwed for homes, but .... we shall see :/

Don't buy.. prices dropping massively

Once interest rates goes up and these landlords can't afford their mortgages, I presume many will be forced to sell art low prices, opening up the rental market and reducing rent. Toronto has has artificially high prices since Ford ruined affordable housing. I hope all these greedy landlords file bankruptcy , after they banked on price gouging the working class. No one if going to pay more for these dumpy condos. People don't even want to pay the current market rates. Housing shouldn't be an investment, it's a basic need. Go invest in real technology or something else besides hoarding vital resources and inflating the price.

Prediction: the pre construction market in Canada will not have a meaningful sustained rebound for 20 years.

You’re only looking at numbers which while important only tell a part of the tale. Unlike Toronto’s population growth which is fueled by mass migration, Alberta’s influx is due to productive Canadians moving out of shithole Ontario.

finding deals now is the best time for this. Rent will go up with high immigration.

Hi sir my name is Blackstone I would like to buy 1000-2000

I'm always amazed at people who work in relevant industries but don't take the time to research *why* we are allowing so many immigrants. It's not some "liberal takeover plan", it's a necessity with an aging population and no one to pay the taxes as they get older. Any country in the same situation as us (aging population) is doing the same thing. Just get used to it (it's a good thing!) and stop this rhetoric of a different government (conservatives) changing things when it comes to immigration. They need to keep immigration high regardless of politics.

No more CCP $ coming in Canada needs to build up its tech and oil and gas sectors and stop relying on real estate to grow its GDP