Profitable Prop Betting in 3 Easy Steps

Рет қаралды 19,893

Күн бұрын

Your path to profitable prop betting at your favorite sportsbook is only 3 easy steps away. Join Jack as he walks you through using readily available projections to gain the edge at prop bets. He also helps you avoid one major mistake a lot of bettors make.
How Top-Down Betting Works: • Winning Sports Betting...
Bankroll Management: • Sports Betting: Buildi...
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0:00 - Intro
1:45 - Using Projections for Props
4:06 - The Big Mistake Made By Bettors
6:54 - Prop Betting Process

Пікірлер: 52

@BadAssMeskin Ай бұрын

Just got into DFS and found your KZfaq page. Very informative and detailed videos 👍👍

@roberclips4682 Ай бұрын

Appreciate you as always Jack!

@whyweloveathletes Ай бұрын

Excellent breakdown as always!

@Batman-eh9ww Ай бұрын

That lower price tier is genius. Thank you

@johnm4817 Ай бұрын

Great video!

@healthandwealthceo Ай бұрын

Preciate this. I didn’t pay attention to projections. I tried making my own projections based on statistics. Did pretty good but not as consistent as I’d like to be

@joeflow206 Ай бұрын

Captain Jack thank you for all the expertise!!

@VintageBaseballCardPacks Ай бұрын

Thanks for the knowledge!

@seandre59 Ай бұрын

Great video

@hybridnation5860 7 күн бұрын

Phenomenal! 🎉

@robertjonez5 Ай бұрын

Not entirely on topic with player props, but I was always told you should be taking the UNDER on any season long o/u player total, due to the fact the player could get injured.. there is no edge on OVER as if the player continues to play, he can't "overplay" so to speak.

@Unabated Ай бұрын

Valid point. You’ll often see that season long player totals skew slightly lower because of this. Also good to factor in the opportunity cost of tying up capital in a season long prop vs fading the player week to week.

@chrisofnyc3936 Ай бұрын

Last season I bet on a big 4 player parlay. They scratched DeGrom due to the injury. Everything else hit. Ohtani over HR total, Yordan Alvarez Under HR total, and I can’t remember the other 1 right now. Sucks DeGrom being voided dropped odds significantly but still a good pay day.

@Jon-oh5pb Ай бұрын

What sportsbook you have?

@zachhanlon6430 28 күн бұрын

Hey I loved this video! I’m a future video could you cover how round robins work and in what scenarios should you do a round Robin rather than a parlay? Been betting for a while but never understood the statistics behind round robins. Just a thought, keep the great vids coming!

@Unabated 28 күн бұрын

The only thing round robins are good for is reducing the variance in parlays. They don’t change your win expectancy and there’s no way to overcome the compounded vig you pay in parlays by using round robins. Just like parlays, you’d only want to use them when you have an edge.

@user-jx3cr6hb2j Ай бұрын

Keep uploading videos to help us pls

@CyyFyy Ай бұрын

for the algorithm!

@innopva9973 Ай бұрын

good topic easy subscribe and like

@notkevinfinnerty4959 Ай бұрын

Captain Jack what is your take on using projections; single set of projections or is it best to blend 2 or more sets. I guess as a metaphor, is it not good to have too many chefs in the kitchen or better to have multiple sets of eyes on it.

@Unabated Ай бұрын

Finding good projections is tough. When you find a good source you can trust them almost implicitly. When you aren’t as confident then your best path is blending. Giving some blend to how the market views things is wise as well, especially in more liquid prop markets. That’s why we have the ability to blend in market-based projections.

@ryanbahnsen6429 Ай бұрын

I know of a sindicate that solely does player props. They've made alot of money, but books are catching up to them... My book only allows a $500 profit on a lay or a $500 bet on a plus money bet on most props.

@primeva7579 Ай бұрын

Question: Do you use the average and median numbers for the entire season, Last 20, last 10 or last 5 games?

@Unabated Ай бұрын

Using just the average performance of the last X number of games isn't a great projection source. Quality of opponent matters, injuries matter, more advanced metrics matter. That's why relying on DFS projections is much better...they take more into account than just L5 or L10.

@primeva7579 Ай бұрын

@@Unabated oh ok cool. I kinda figured that. Wanted some clarification. Thanks

@21wqt62 Ай бұрын

how would u find the % edge for example if their median would be 5.2 and the listed was 5.5, would u need to find the % using something like a z score then calculating the implied probs?

@Unabated Ай бұрын

To find the edge you compare the probability to the price. In a simulation you have the distribution of results to determine the probability. For example, if the distribution shows a 50.5% chance of Houck going under 5.5 K’s, then that would be a 2.01% edge. ((.505 * 202) - 100))/100 For more information on this formula you can check out the old Captain Jack video on calculating your edge: kzfaq.info/get/bejne/pLRoi7VortKvn2g.htmlsi=Bele2LHjK45f6va7

@basketballlgod7454 Ай бұрын

Is the simulator accessible for the Essential Plan or just the Premium Plan?

@Unabated Ай бұрын

The prop simulator is accessible from the Essential Plan. Our in-house WNBA projections require a Premium subscription.

@phillyphil4824 5 күн бұрын

signed up last night.. lost every bet i made lol...

@timmyd3819 Ай бұрын

Are you sponsored by Circa? I have noticed almost all of your B-roll has circa sportsbook branding on it.

@Unabated Ай бұрын

Circa was kind enough to let us shoot out B-roll there. All the other sportsbooks said no. Not sponsored by Circa but they are a good place to play.

@pocketsurprise3805 Ай бұрын

Captain, last night I made an even money bet on NY Rangers $5. As soon as they scored first I bet that $5 on FL Panthers when the price shot up +185. What would the total investment be 5 or 10?

@Unabated Ай бұрын

Your total investment was $10. Your EV would be calculated at the time you made each bet based on win probability at that time.

@johnjohnstone5206 Ай бұрын

If you are looking to bet $500-$1000 per bet, 35-40 bets per day, should I avoid player probs bc I'll be limited eventually?

@Unabated Ай бұрын

That’s your personal choice. Some players look to preserve an account by not betting things they know books won’t tolerate. However, there is also the school of thought to just make as much money as possible and deal with account limits by betting through other people later.

@AyeNardo Ай бұрын

Can you personally give me any bets ? I want to use your methods

@ethangranados2642 25 күн бұрын

35-40 bets a day is insane

@brianreed2830 Ай бұрын

Engagement

@jfurey4 Ай бұрын

👍🏻👍🏻👍🏻

@cdg0486 Ай бұрын

👍🏾

@georgebourlos1430 Ай бұрын

Many books in Europe offer player props but they only offer the OVER !! One way bets are stupid, right?

@Unabated Ай бұрын

Not only stupid, but they make our list of: The 5 WORST Bets In A Sportsbook kzfaq.info/get/bejne/iZ6fqK-T0dS5c6s.html

@PicksByB 29 күн бұрын

So basically you’re saying you should be taking the +odds on a player?

@Unabated 29 күн бұрын

In the Tanner Houck example in the video, yes. However, every situation is different. It's a matter of probability and price. If the probability exceeds the price, it's a good bet. To find the probability, you can use sharp projections. To find the prices available, you can use an odds screen.

@rckhnt Ай бұрын

Houck had 7ks

@Unabated Ай бұрын

The game in the video was 5/20/24. He had 5 K’s.

@tannerh151 Ай бұрын

Don't pay for picks. Sign up to my program instead. Just stop...

@xreborncjayy5810 16 күн бұрын

@Unabated where can you find free trustworthy projections because everything cost something and not guaranteed

@Unabated 16 күн бұрын

Unfortunately, finding free projections that are good is tough. A popular topic on our Discord is where to source good projections. You can check that out at: unabated.com/discord