I think I’m going to approach betting the Kentucky Derby differently this year. With my recent bad luck since Maximum Security got DQ’d, I’m only betting to SHOW. I rewatched last year’s Derby. Do you remember how people on KZfaq were so high on ANGEL OF EMPIRE? He ran a good race as the chalk but he moved a little too late. Mage moved sooner and he won it. This is my feeling with Sierra Leone. There hasn’t been a Blue Grass winner who won the KY Derby since 1991. And we’ve had some good ones recently like Good Magic, Essential Quality, and Zandon. Maybe Sierra Leone is Zandon Part 2? Horses like Zandon and Angel of Empire get heavily supported on Derby Day only to watch them finish 3rd. That might be Sierra Leone seeing the pattern. So I’m looking at the show payouts for Zandon and Angel of Empire. The odds for them is somewhere between 1.30-1.80 to 1. I might as well take that chance instead of losing on another win bet and Sierra Leone only finishes 3rd. If let’s say the show payout for Sierra Leone is $5 because Zandon was $5.60 and Angel of Empire was $4.70, I can go $60 on that. Take 5x30. Payout is $150. I may play it that way. I’m sick and tired of losing the Derby placing win bets on half the field. If I’m going to lose, I will simply pray that one of my horses finishes 3rd. I still win money even if my horses lose. $60 SHOW Sierra Leone $40 SHOW Stronghold Mage paid $9 for show last year. Or I’ll keep it simple: $100 SHOW on Sierra Leone. That could still net me around $250. It ain’t much but it’s better than being a -100. It’s tough to win the Derby. You can love a horse like Holy Bull in 1994 or Point Given in 2001 who dominated their preps only for them to mysteriously run off the board. Easy Goer looked like the Second Coming of Secretariat after his 1989 Gotham being a tick of Dr Fager’s mile world record. Lost the Derby as odds-on. Arazi looked like a superstar after winning the 1991 BC Juvie. Finished 8th in the Derby. For all we know, neither Fierceness or Sierra Leone hits the board.

Resilience is my choice 🏇 I want Bill Mott to win this year!

Just because this is not considered a great crop for the 3yo colts, and perhaps a little top heavy (as some say) doesn't mean the Derby won't be a fantastic betting race with the chance of some big vertical exotics. The two main favorites have questions to answer too! Everybody has opinions (respect) and I'm afraid I disagree with yours. I think Resilience has more than a fair chance for the win in a year like this! I intend to use him on top with some of my tickets. Nice video, thanks!

I will use him underneath on my tickets. I expect him to make another move forward in the derby. I agree he should be around 20/1 at post time.

Give José Ortiz under Resilience. I will take him all day!

It looks to me like he peaked in the Wood , and will likely regress next time out.