Singapore property price FIRST DROP IN 2YEARS?!? Not exactly yet, here's why...

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Күн бұрын

Singapore private resale property prices have finally came down. What does the data tell us? Is there a property crash coming?
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0:00 Introduction
0:30 Data from jan2023 flash estimate
2:50 Principal garden condo
6:28 HDB price trends
8:15 Property market crash
#property #singaporeproperty #sgproperty #condo
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Пікірлер: 94

@hhspore Жыл бұрын

Josh, thank you once again for another useful commentary. In all honesty, I do not think that Singapore is so unique that the property pricing downward trend that is taking place around the world will NOT apply to Singapore.

@joshconsultancy Жыл бұрын

Hey Hazel no probs. Yes I agree we are not unique. Hence the question are we going to see a delayed downturn reaction in 2023 and 2024...

@irwangunardi275 Жыл бұрын

Its because gov artificialy control the price. They knowbif they build too many flats, price will crash, and the next GLS wont be as lucrative.

@sg9503 Жыл бұрын

SG property can only go up… HIGHER! Buy now before it’s too late!

@chho310 Жыл бұрын

Thanks for putting this together Josh. V interesting. As usual short and sharp, no fuzzy logic. Appreciated. 👍

@joshconsultancy Жыл бұрын

Thank you CH for the high praise

@superconnie5003 Жыл бұрын

Thank you for your vids. Very helpful with no BS.

@joshconsultancy Жыл бұрын

Glad it was usefu =)

@investwithpete Жыл бұрын

Great Video Josh! regarding the last qns, I think the number of owners who will sell due to high interest rate will be low. Because most of them buy for own stay. if they sell they will have to buy elsewhere too.But i agree it will impact the investment units like 1-2 bedder which are usually not for own stay. Thanks again!

@joshconsultancy Жыл бұрын

Thanks for the high praise Pete. I also dunno the exact % of those who are investors (not home stay) but even if its a small percentage, it will still create selling pressure like what we see from 2013-2016

@sek898 Жыл бұрын

@@joshconsultancy b careful pete is a iquadrant clown

@authenticwj7515 Жыл бұрын

Great video Josh

@joshconsultancy Жыл бұрын

Thanks and cya around =)

@authenticwj7515 Жыл бұрын

@@joshconsultancy See you

@edwardlumsianming3430 Жыл бұрын

So it is all about the external forces in play and the timing people buy or and sell.

@joshconsultancy Жыл бұрын

need to define external forces. Like in asian financial crisis, external forces were evaporating investments into the country. This time round could be a spike in interest cost

@liamporter1137 Жыл бұрын

No one, no one, no one is immune or can defy gravity. What goes up will come down, it all depends on when.

@joshconsultancy Жыл бұрын

bearish vote noted

@jironghuang4895 Жыл бұрын

Lost decades in property mkt happen often.

@BomBomm12345 Жыл бұрын

The gap between RCR / OCR and CCR is the closest in a long time - a resale FH condo at 2200 psf at River Valley is close to and cheaper than Seneca / Lentor 99 years

@joshconsultancy Жыл бұрын

YES EXACTLY!!!!!

@bkoh1771 Жыл бұрын

I don't think you can equate new sales to resales FH condos in River Valley. Firstly, these new sales, apart from 25% down their forward monthly installments, are only a few hundred dollars till TOP. Freehold condos, apart from the 25%, u already need to pay monthly instalments right from month 1. The new sales people are hoping when they TOP to sell at a profit which so far mostly have proven to be successful (there is a psychological advantage of being the 1st owner of the house/car etc..), compared to resale FH condos where it depends on several factors and during the 4 yrs you have to pay full installments as well.

@BomBomm12345 Жыл бұрын

@@bkoh1771 I doubt so.. those who bought new launches 99 yrs in OCR and RCR during the 2013 peak had to wait till recently to break even..some sold at a loss - not saying all new launch projects at OCR and RCR but got to be careful right now when market is at all time high.. picking value properties is paramount.. your assumption is the property market continues to break all time highs when those projects TOP in 2026/ 2027..really cannot imagine buying Lentor / Seneca at 2.2k psf and selling off at 2.5k / 2.6k psf or even Terra’s 2.6k launch.. you need to sell 2.9k /3k to make a decent profit.. btw the River Valley FH can be rented to expats now and is a easy 6/7k for 900sqft

@bkoh1771 Жыл бұрын

@M L Yeah all about buying the right ones lah. We have only 1 choice each so choose wisely lah. If you have chosen Sky Habitat or Skywoods, you should have most likely make money in 2018/19 already after Sky Vue & Dairy Farm started to sell higher. Yeah I also skeptical on Seneca and Terra Hill, given they are standalone sites. Lentor really need to examine further if nearby plots land bids will increase or fall to see if their bet turns out to be successful but usually first mover seems wise (take Park Colonial before Woodleigh and those Potong Pasir projects before Poiz & TreasureTrove before Waterway point) however Lentor started with the Mixed development first unlike the others. Just look at those who got Pasir Ris 8 on the first day, 2nd day make money liao easily $3XXk for 3-4 bdrm now just don't want to sell to avoid SSD only. By committing to a RV unit, you deprive yourself of such an opportunity given so many new launches coming in 2023. There is now so much information such as land cost etc made known to you etc hence you know at Day 1 when they launch how much are they roughly making, if it is below what you thought (

@cchan4739 Жыл бұрын

@@BomBomm12345 I also find it hard to comprehend why buyers prefer a 2200 psf 99LH new condo at Marymount/Lentor/AMK over a FH River Valley/Newton condo at the same psf and similar quantum. Really beats me. Never has the psf difference btw CCR and RCR/OCR been so close. Surely one day we will revert to what we have always known - either RCR/OCR prices drop or CCR rise to the moon.

@swimlah Жыл бұрын

What goes up must come down …

@limliza992 Жыл бұрын

Good luck for those who paid more than $2 millions for a small unit.

@jeantan417 Жыл бұрын

Absolutely w you on the grants. I think it is a wrong move. It’s crazy to increase liquidity for ppl to buy a HDB.

@cedrust4111 Жыл бұрын

Most private condo loans (nearing TOP ones) are paying floating.. and that's where i think the pain is coming from since u are stuck with floats and can either: 1) switch to fix later on. 2) sell and incurs stamp Most of the loan principal would have been disbursed out by banks for those nearing TOP and that contributed to the gains in net "interest" income.

@joshconsultancy Жыл бұрын

yes floating, conversion is only at TOP

@nats7798 Жыл бұрын

Max down 5-8% but long term trend will still be up.. bear cycle usually short n fast.. which means that q4 could be a good time to enter.. decouple now and negotiate for the best prices

@joshconsultancy Жыл бұрын

bear cycle usually short n fast is equity. Property bears are long. 2013-2016. If you look at an early one, even longer 2001-2005

@RacingS2000 Жыл бұрын

@@joshconsultancy generally peak to trough falls take less time to occur than recovery to peak levels. This is true for most assets classes.

@pinkublacku Жыл бұрын

@@RacingS2000 I think you are right. When I bought my landed in 2010, I took about 3 months to search. During that time, the prices had gone up quite quickly. The entire drop was only for a 6 month period. I remember telling myself I was still pretty lucky to land one for 1000psf land.

@MsCorydorus Жыл бұрын

Not sure how to get to see the comparison on cost of development. I feel chances are the bottom income family is already price out of the market and they need larger grant to buy. Is easy to say not to give them and let the price drop. It may not drop and they also cannot wait.

@joshconsultancy Жыл бұрын

I feel cost of development is used as a rosy showroom pitch to say developer will not cut prices . However, standing on the side of the developer (when I'm a shareholder putting on the business hat), if we need to sell for cashflow and debt covenant needs or to to be in the timeframe to avoid development charges, we can cut prices...

@PPI317 Жыл бұрын

Recently alot of youtubers are capitalizing on recent PPI decline for eyeball and views, keep stirring same message. The 1M65 guy also like that. I can only say there is a 30-40% premium associated with new launches, so one cannot compare a new LH with a 2nd hand FH or LH resale. The lease tenure will be different, layout will be more efficient, and landscape and facilities will be more modern. I think prices will start going up again when Reserve Residences, Jalan Tembusu and Dunman plot is launched from Q2 onwards.

@joshconsultancy Жыл бұрын

pov noted

@malita354 Жыл бұрын

Why is Holland and Bukit Timah considered central region? Is it these places are made to be expensive or for VIP?

@joshconsultancy Жыл бұрын

It has always been pricier as prime district

@malita354 Жыл бұрын

@@joshconsultancy Thanks Josh for your efforts sharing your insights and opinions. 👍

@PPI317 Жыл бұрын

They are zoned as District 10, and based on URA definition District 9,10 and 11 and certain part of District 1-3 are part of CCR, core central region.

@louth1770 Жыл бұрын

Spore cannot be shielded by the global trends in property market. Govt has to watch and guard against PRC buyers coming in to prop up our property prices- it's a bubble trend for sure.

@joshconsultancy Жыл бұрын

we have absd alr on foreigners

@kelvincheng5901 Жыл бұрын

But Josh, these foreigners are filthy rich...ABSD is nothing to them

@louth1770 Жыл бұрын

@@joshconsultancy ir won't deter foreigners, Spore should Aussie stamp duties and tax policies towards foreign buyers.

@ahjingteo7497 Жыл бұрын

It is not just the PRC buyers. There are buyers from other countries including more buyers from the West these days. Don't forget, buyers from USA and a few other countries don't have to pay ABSD when they buy properties in Singapore because of the brilliant FTA that our govt signed with them

@lucern543 Жыл бұрын

If u sold your hdb and kept condo, the next time you want a 2nd property, u will have to pay high absd.

@joshconsultancy Жыл бұрын

stay tuned for next episode

@ZackChow Жыл бұрын

dont think u can directly compare with au and nzl which are land rich. should compare with hong kong which is the closest in terms economic structure, population density and land availability. but kudos to the gov for having a better urban planning and policy than hk, else prices would be even alot higher.

@joshconsultancy Жыл бұрын

Cities in NZ and AU. We are comparable..

@YokNg Жыл бұрын

Talking about gems, 8@ mount sophia at 1400psf 2 mins away from dhoby ghaut mrt.

@joshconsultancy Жыл бұрын

interesting... =)

@marineleong850 Жыл бұрын

Grant meaning as in noun: “a sum of money given by a government or other organization for a particular purpose” Wikipedia. Therefore this sum of money is liquidity, subtle way of pumping money into the system. Why the need to carry out this, I guess you know what I’m driving at? 😂

@Guyontheinternet_ Жыл бұрын

Most people buy private property as an investment so the drop in demand may mean that people are moving away from investing in property. But the demand for HDB is for staying in it, so the demand will be stronger and won't drop that much, since it is an essential need. The only way to lower public housing price is to crush the insane rental market, by putting out more HDBs to increase the supply and decrease the demand for renting HDBs.

@joshconsultancy Жыл бұрын

Agree largely with your POV

@jamirdeol2125 Жыл бұрын

100% spot-on. - 17% ABSD? - count me out. Cooling measures starting to yield their purpose.

@donldnify Жыл бұрын

Just in time for GE 2025!

@allent4021 Жыл бұрын

TDSR, LTV, ABSD, SSD... will mitigate any downturn. These control measures reinforce the long term nature in property investment. Getting in and out of property to ride the cycle incurs heavy cost.

@henrylee1269 Жыл бұрын

Why pte property prices will continue to climb slowly : 1.Low supply of pte units from 2024-2026 2.Less GLS for pte as govt priority is to ramp up public land sales 3. Return of Chinese, PR and foreigne buyers 4. High rentals made buying a better option 5 Interest rate will not remain high beyond 2025. A 3% increase in interest rate is about $2500/mth increase in mortgage payment for $1m = no fire sale for the average condo owner monthly household income, 20k

@joshconsultancy Жыл бұрын

noted on your POV. Ive an alternative here to raise kzfaq.info/get/bejne/gp13jKWi08DKn4E.html

@henrylee1269 Жыл бұрын

@@joshconsultancy Josh, you definitely did the right thing monetising yr HDB. Its the government intention to curb runaway HDB prices, hence the policies of pte sellers 15 months wait to buy resale, recently, and ramping up BTO supply. HDB prices will always be controlled as a political tool for nation building. Pte prop market on the other hand is market driven and serve as safe haven for foreigners like Chinese, Indons as a store of value albeit with some policies to prevent a bubble housing situation.

@pinkublacku Жыл бұрын

It is now June 2023, I was told by agents that rents have soften quite a bit. Developers giving massive sales at new condo, resale owners refuse to face reality but rental had soften due to more condo units in the market. Let's see how long resale condo owners would want to continue with sky high prices.

@xingxing85 Жыл бұрын

If you ask the property agents, they will just tell you prices will keep going up. Never will fall despite any conditions so as to fear people into buying property

@joshconsultancy Жыл бұрын

Yes its been a FOMO pitch

@xingxing85 Жыл бұрын

@@joshconsultancy yes so thanks for making this video and debunking their BS

@pinkublacku Жыл бұрын

Now if you talk to agents from show flats, they are all selling the "massive discounts". I tried to give a lowball number and they even told me to produce cheque to try. The tides are changing for sure.

@andygregory2145 Жыл бұрын

Jan = Chinese new year leh , of course sales will go down

@joshconsultancy Жыл бұрын

HDB went up. CCR went up

@durianboleh888 Жыл бұрын

Private property prices will remain bullish due to high demands from foreign buyers.

@joshconsultancy Жыл бұрын

foreigners only make up 4% of sale and are mostly confined to luxury segment

@henry4872 Жыл бұрын

Not true, singaporeans have high holding power. Our housing loan is quite low, we don't have much pressure, ....with high rental, property prices of new launch will continue to rise. Resale properties depend on the area will be stable or rise slowly. Foreigners are coming back strongly

@joshconsultancy Жыл бұрын

Pov noted

@kelvincheng5901 Жыл бұрын

That's the problem...No wonder the property prices are so high. The next generation will find it tough

@Sgfan Жыл бұрын

Resale prices are expensive due to cpf oa rate at 2.6 percent artificially inflating the actual cost

@joshconsultancy Жыл бұрын

hmm? could elaborate...

@mrkoh7095 Жыл бұрын

Hdb loan rates are pegged to cpf oa rates. The current oa rate of 2.6 perfent is way below market interest rates. Since its cheaper to get a loan for hdb resale than bank loan for condo, resale prices will be slightly higher than if it were at the same rate.

@ahbai1976 Жыл бұрын

Haha…. When u see most home loans need refinancing soon…. U can guess where property prices will be heading….. having to pay $2-$3k more per month is no joke esp when recession is coming soon

@joshconsultancy Жыл бұрын

oh yes, I think it will weigh on the sentiment

@tenga3tango Жыл бұрын

Principal Gardens adjacent to Alexandra canal leh , lao cai boh , i still prefer east coast. If drench also drench together with upper crust residences. 👍👍😂😂

@FoodieWarrior Жыл бұрын

Propnex latest earnings is solid. Generous dividend payout! 😁

@joshconsultancy Жыл бұрын

Ya i saw, maybe id do a review on it. Anyone else keen, smash the like here to feedback k

@superconnie5003 Жыл бұрын

Giving out share too

@casaclementi1800 Жыл бұрын

I am a PRC PR citizen and China and Singapore prices NEVER drop. I hope HDB can hit 3rm1M 4rm1.5M 5rm2M My family have two HDB and we are awaiting to sell and return back to China to retire!

@joshconsultancy Жыл бұрын

Hi, media reports big drops in china but hows the property situation in the city you live in there?

@pinkublacku Жыл бұрын

@josh, I believe this comment by @casa clement was made in jest. Parody? Satire?

@tenga3tango Жыл бұрын

Drop 1 % , 2 % then shoot up 6%, 8 % . Luckily , entered near valley around 2015 -2016. Those who waited and waited to enter are probably kicking themselves in the butts and wife nagging non stop for missing the boat , now price retreat slowly, slowly, slowly.