🗳️ Election Update: Will ANC fall below 50%?

🗳️ Election Update: Will ANC fall below 50%? | Historical data and polls

Рет қаралды 45,866

Күн бұрын

In today’s episode, Dr Sizwe Mpofu-Walsh unpacks the historical data of elections in South Africa & what inferences we can project for this year's election.
📚 Today’s Episode Features:
1. ANC historical election performance
2. Opposition parties
3. Election polls
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_______
00:00:00 - Introduction
00:03:02 - ANC performance history
00:15:05 - Election polls
00:24:49 - What can change?
00:28:37 - Provincial data
_______
Credits:
Director: Bongani Nkosi
Producer: Oratile Kekana
Production Manager: Noluthando Mkhize
DOP and Editor: Bongani Nkosi
2nd camera operator and assistant editor: Lesego Kgobe
Photographer: Bongani Nkosi
Sound: Kgothatso Senne
Social Media Manager: Oratile Kekana
About me: Dr Sizwe Mpofu-Walsh is an author, scholar and founder of the Sizwe Mpofu-Walsh Xperience (SMWX), a digital, youth-centred current affairs platform. He holds a DPhil in International Relations from the University of Oxford and is a Lecturer in International Relations at Wits.

Пікірлер: 503

@nyikovilanculos3999 Ай бұрын

Let's give ANC their 30% pass rate

@sizwemlangeni9158 Ай бұрын

I like that. Count me in.

@jaykin6970 Ай бұрын

❤😂❤😂❤😂❤😂❤😂

@KokieEDUCATION Ай бұрын

That's a good one😂😂

@molokomack332 Ай бұрын

Plus 30 minus 2

@VIVINGAAN Ай бұрын

Yes please!

@Siphiwe-fr3qb Ай бұрын

Young man, I left politics because of a lack of true academics like you. You a marvel to listen to and simplify issues for even a non academic to see... Long live Sizwe....

@makhosazanemweli Ай бұрын

Clear speech

@Enoch940 Ай бұрын

On 28 May South Africa will write the greatest IQ test ever written in SA .

@mpolokengmoshou7679 Ай бұрын

I guess ur having special vote

@wandiledumakude Ай бұрын

😂😂😂

@Truthseeker-iz3dj Ай бұрын

The only vote worth watching is Umngeni. We know Pappas has been a superstar for that metro. If good governance can't turn into votes, then the country will go downhill. The IEC does break down voter count per metro, so let's see if better service delivery actually works.

@dannyarcher6370 Ай бұрын

You mean the last three elections weren't conclusive enough for you?

@dannyarcher6370 Ай бұрын

@@Truthseeker-iz3dj This is a provincial and national election. Umgeni isn't on the ballot. Seems you will be failing the 29 May IQ test.

@makhosazanemweli Ай бұрын

What a humbled knowledgeable and well prepared young man ❤

@simphiwesimzza7132 Ай бұрын

How does he remain so calm and non-bias with all guest and stick to reality of the matter in place

@makhosazanemweli Ай бұрын

Sizwe , your voice, insightful and clear speech are really killing me son🤞

@lungamasuku6872 Ай бұрын

I know it sounds extreme but I’am really convinced that the ANC will only get 38%!,and i really hope that!😅

@ndabenhlengcobo8741 Ай бұрын

It's not extreme...ANC will land between 30% and 39%...

@user-qp2ge6tx6j Ай бұрын

Thats what i also see less than 40%

@JamesSumner-Goodwin Ай бұрын

I agree. It already has polled that low but polling in SA is notoriously unreliable.

@AndrewMcFarlane_1 Ай бұрын

Im hoping less... but this will bring more possible instability with the rise of MK recently.

@shafiyaalgiquadra1105 Ай бұрын

@@AndrewMcFarlane_1no instability, the MK actually galvanised a strong leftist configuration.

@letlhogonoloaulstonmorwakg7379 Ай бұрын

Balance of forces has changed, the old people that has been keeping the ANC above the 50% range are unfortunately been recalled by God,

@user-ww5qw8jd3b Ай бұрын

2029 they will be gone. But ANC still got ace under the sleeve. That ace will be grants. After that 2034 there won't be no money left for grants

@nqababarnes4340 Ай бұрын

Dats true

@lindagrobler9042 Ай бұрын

Rooting for you,Mr SMWX!! May you win your bet!! It will be a miracle,nonetheless. Thank you for impartibg your perceptive insights to us.

@themalejodietaylor2599 Ай бұрын

Your producer is going to be clean shaven for the rest of his life. 😂😂😂 Great analysis, as always. Thank you for your great work.

@Sizwe.MpofuWalsh Ай бұрын

😂😂😂

@wuandah638 Ай бұрын

🤣🤣😂

@nubiroo Ай бұрын

The ANC must just go, below 40% please people

@fungaiblake3594 6 күн бұрын

Got your wish

@christophermaitin1373 6 күн бұрын

@@fungaiblake3594 Not yet hey, let's wait for tomorrow's results, either way, we have broken them and I am beyond happy. We can now show the world what a powerful country we have

Ай бұрын

I think you are the most informed analyst, I enjoy your channel. subbed.

@Sizwe.MpofuWalsh Ай бұрын

Welcome aboard!

@SakhileButheleziSaks Ай бұрын

The question is will the ANC go to bed with the EFF or the DA for a coalition government. 🤔

@user-lb9nw6pk6w Ай бұрын

I don't mind who come to power as long as our rainbow nation would be strengthened, as BRICS member we also want to keep our business with all countries around the world and we just want to see peace around the world.

@user-dq3lo3nx1l Ай бұрын

We just hope that bed is cleared of any beared hair.

@user-ww5qw8jd3b Ай бұрын

DA With EFF and or MK, sure we will be heading to the Zimbabwe path

@lindamanamela7998 Ай бұрын

Not EFF. Maybe DA because they belong to the same FUNDER. EFF IS GOING TO collide with MK.

@zerog1037 Ай бұрын

This has now become a divide betweena xhosa and zulu and I love it. No longer will anc be the symbol for bantu leadership.

@cebomakhaye2510 Ай бұрын

KZN, North West and GP are shaping up to be real kingmakers this election season

@mantombimkhwebane335 Ай бұрын

Your father is a genius, MK loves you and your family. ANC will get 18%.

@molokomack332 Ай бұрын

Plus 40

@thalithamngomezulu457 Ай бұрын

😂😂😂😂😂

@mpilompanza9101 Ай бұрын

Thank you very much. Great analysis. Can't wait for the next poll

@user-bg6tu3lo9g Ай бұрын

You are spot on 40% ANC

@zukai9733 Ай бұрын

I foresee tears and chest pains here.

@user-ox1pv6nk3t Ай бұрын

.............And Heart attacks😅🤣😆🤣😂

@user-dq3lo3nx1l Ай бұрын

And beard hair flying. @@user-ox1pv6nk3t

@marangmamahlodi6622 Ай бұрын

Most interesting episode Sizwe, big up. What an eye opener💚🖤💚

@mphomashaba693 Ай бұрын

I just like how you break down everything most of us don't understand politically, thanks for your commitment.. you and your team are the best!!!

@berniediedricks5681 Ай бұрын

Western Cape is NOT 4 SALE, this is The Mother City of 🇿🇦South Africa💞

@Pamela-ek9cp Ай бұрын

Is for PA

@unisatouchtouch2168 Ай бұрын

❤

@pov-gx2ko Ай бұрын

PA is giving DA chest pains in western cape 😭

@mnisijsjoesim3940 Ай бұрын

An Israel state in South Africa😂😂😂

@user-ww5qw8jd3b Ай бұрын

@@pov-gx2ko for now. As soon Capetonians realize that PA is not different from ANC, 2029 DA will be back

@TristonFrancis-lo7gh Ай бұрын

Always enjoy your insite, very informative!

@lindajali745 Ай бұрын

You are doing a fantastic job lad 👏🏾👏🏾👏🏾

@Sizwe.MpofuWalsh Ай бұрын

Thanks 🙏🏽

@thabelofortune Ай бұрын

AYEYE! 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥 #SMWX

@user-sq2lr8xe9j Ай бұрын

ANC below 40%

@SonOfTheSoil834 Ай бұрын

I don’t see ANC reaching 40%

@zolanisszonyane Ай бұрын

Interesting elections ahead, we'll have to embrace change and scent of fresh air for the benefit of our well being

@VictorvanSchoor Ай бұрын

I am with you

@kadenarguile5225 Ай бұрын

I hope your producer looks good without a beard.

@user-uc7ec8pk9m Ай бұрын

I am with you Sizwe

@zephardmotha3671 Ай бұрын

I'm with you Sizwe❤

@bhomudyahoto1271 Ай бұрын

Great analysis, Sizwe. ❤❤❤

@kobusvanschoor9891 Ай бұрын

I think your beard is safe 🙂 and thanks for the amazing program , to you and your team

@Sizwe.MpofuWalsh Ай бұрын

Thanks for watching! 🙏🏽

@siyabongadube7405 Ай бұрын

I really pray to see a video collaboration of you and Dan Coder, you both incredibly present SA politics well. Simple yet informative. Please make plan

@Sizwe.MpofuWalsh Ай бұрын

It already happened-he came on the channel in December. Search our vids!

@ThembaTsela Ай бұрын

Good Job, brilliant

@thembambelengwa9296 Ай бұрын

Question of the year

@Sizwe.MpofuWalsh Ай бұрын

Yep! 😂

@berniediedricks5681 Ай бұрын

Be strong only the brave r targetted💞

@thomasterblanche7831 Ай бұрын

As always, sober and sound analysis Sizwe.

@thembelandesi4741 Ай бұрын

What’s more hilarious is people thinking the elections are fair and transparent 😂. Cmon!

@TristonFrancis-lo7gh Ай бұрын

The ANC only have themselves to blame, they digging their own grave by being self serving.

@lindomakhathini9751 Ай бұрын

ANC is 100% going below 50% tell your producer he is under the influence of something.

@TSG0195 Ай бұрын

He must tell him to start shaving

@user-ww5qw8jd3b Ай бұрын

ANC will score between 42 and 46%

@jaykin6970 Ай бұрын

😂😂😂😂😂😂, I fully agree, and he's fast asleep under such influence. I hope he wakes up still under that influence after 29 May when he realise that anc got even below 40%, so he can convince himself that he is still in a better bad dream than this worst he's hallucinating 😅😅😅😅😅

@devanmoodley1246 Ай бұрын

Interesting analysis.

@vut_zarco Ай бұрын

I agree with your assessment

@jacklenge531 Ай бұрын

Nice analyse my brother what a talent

@Sizwe.MpofuWalsh Ай бұрын

Me after the election. 🧔🏽‍♂️

@user-ww5qw8jd3b Ай бұрын

You said that, there was load shedding in 2012?? I didn't feel load shedding till 2022

@user-ww5qw8jd3b Ай бұрын

North west and eastern cape are core ANC followers

@user-ww5qw8jd3b Ай бұрын

Ace's factor would starve ANC in Free State

@bafanamshengu920 Ай бұрын

The EFF alone was going to do a major blow on the ANC. Now with the advent of the MKP, things are really looking dire for the ANC. This is good, we need the ANC out of power as in yesterday but with most parties directionless and others immature, coalitions are not looking up unfortunately

@kaizersuze9000 Ай бұрын

Naa

@SonOfTheSoil834 Ай бұрын

I don’t see ANC reaching 40%

@user-ww5qw8jd3b Ай бұрын

Replacing ANC with MK and or EFF, South Africans will be solving nothing.

@ProcaviaCapensis-ts8ub Ай бұрын

Unfortunately , removing the ANC from power only to replace it with something worse is not a good thing. The MK and EFF are taking votes from the ANC. ANC voters don't seem to be moving to other opposition parties much.

@thandasibisi7534 Ай бұрын

@@ProcaviaCapensis-ts8ubAgree. Imagine EFF combined with MKP got above 50% in a coalition. That would be a recipe for something worse than ANC

@derrickditshego5518 Ай бұрын

Nice summary of what we about to witness. It's scary that the ANC might lose power but that is all we are wishing for

@sdrawk3611 Ай бұрын

At the moment the ANC will be lucky to cross the line with 30%

@MyJudgedread Ай бұрын

It does not matter who votes ... it only matters who counts the votes!

@thalithamngomezulu457 Ай бұрын

Very true indeed

@Bluecollarjoe6B9 Ай бұрын

I really hope EC catches a wake up, the DA was doing a good job there.

@shafiyaalgiquadra1105 Ай бұрын

If the good job is felt on the ground and not only in the airwaves then it will translate to votes. But so far...

@caesar3909 Ай бұрын

I wish they do but the reality is they won't. Beaten wife syndrome is real, Eastern Cape is the most hopeless of the ANC loyalists.

@user-ww5qw8jd3b Ай бұрын

Eastern Cape residents are loyal ANC voters

@user-ww5qw8jd3b Ай бұрын

@@caesar3909 🤣😂🤣😂🤣😂🤣😂🤣😂🤣😂

@TAXSHELTER Ай бұрын

Coalitions have been a mess in Nelson Mandela Bay. I really hope for a majority government and I pray its not the ANC.

@sc0rtch Ай бұрын

I feel for my home province EC. But fingers crossed DA keeps WC, IFP gets KZN and Gauteng has an outright majority as I feel it will get better delivery if there is one party that is responsible.

@florencediallo8340 Ай бұрын

Gauteng will be Action SA coalition with IFP, FF+, UIM, PA and DA

@user-ww5qw8jd3b Ай бұрын

Zuma must put most of MK resources in Mpumalanga and Gauteng. ACT must put all their eggs in Free State. DA must put most of its resources in eastern cape and northern cape. EFF must put most of its resources in Gauteng, Limpopo and NW. 6 provinces will be gone from ANC.

@miscible21 Ай бұрын

You truly do reap what you sow.

@scottmcgill5915 Ай бұрын

Thanks for the analysis Sizwe. You should consider reaching out to Dawie Scholtz - he's done some interesting pre-election modelling in the past

@PatricTshwenyane Ай бұрын

I am with you producer. ANC will be at mid 50s

@user-cz3hu7wt1t Ай бұрын

And let's give them 30% the very % they give our school results they deserve that.

@profdapoet Ай бұрын

Politics getting really interesting in South Africa. Electoral Court sets aside IEC's Zuma's disqualification. In my little understanding of the law, Zuma had been wronged by the IEC - and justice has been served. But the man of the moment for the past few hours, days, weeks, and many past months - is Dali Mpofu

@jacklenge531 Ай бұрын

His the best lawyer in SA

@zerog1037 Ай бұрын

He was not wronged lmao Zuma never served his sentence and the ANC gave a get out of jail free card with tht remittance. It's actually criminal how the courts have failed us in delivering justice to zuma and his cronies

@profdapoet Ай бұрын

@@zerog1037 Maybe you don't understand the Law Framework, he was not even supposed to have been sentenced, let alone going to jail before the parole, and later remission. You cannot be charged with Contempt of Court for refusing to appear before a Commission. Do you need any further explanation beyond this? Collect all the recording of the court proceedings as presented by Adv Dali Mpofu - but also listen to other law practitioners, NOT political analysts.

@zerog1037 Ай бұрын

@@profdapoet Your are joking right? Zuma, the Gupta lover, the nkandla raiser, the rapst, the arms dealer and the looter of state was not meant to be sentenced????? Wht a joke

@zerog1037 Ай бұрын

@@profdapoet Not showing up to court is literally contempt of court. He only got out because of the remittance which cleaned his slate

@mariojanlouw1396 Ай бұрын

The ANC WILL fall! #FreeSouthAfrica!

@elizabethandrsu369 Ай бұрын

I WISH they get 1%.

@curiousk4083 Ай бұрын

😂That's COPE😂😂😂😅

@elizabethandrsu369 Ай бұрын

@@curiousk4083 I mean ANC. 🤣🤣🤣🤣

@elizabethandrsu369 Ай бұрын

@@curiousk4083 I mean ANC party who let people drink water with donkies.

@Notesfrommypad Ай бұрын

😂😂😂😂😂

@sibongilechakela4468 Ай бұрын

They should get -1

@pommie7 Ай бұрын

AnC will get less than 30% voter %.

@KayDayce Ай бұрын

I don't think these people understands how frustrated voters are. I also see ANC in the late 20ies. They must Ignore MK at their own parell

@kblack302 Ай бұрын

Was wondering if you can do a show looking at the campaign strategy of political parties, and whether it is a good strategy (looking at what has happened across the world, and in history). I know you’ve touched a bit on the ANC’s campaign strategy of looking at the past 30 years rather than the immediate past, but interested also in what other political parties strategy is and how effective you believe they’ll be. For example the DA with its fear-mongering, why did they choose such a strategy, do you believe it will work and appeal to their base? Contrast that to the FF+ campaign strategy which is a hopeful campaign with a messaging of let’s rebuild SA together. Thank you for a good analysis.

@davidfield533 Ай бұрын

Yes

@user-bf7iq1sl7e Ай бұрын

Hi Sizwe, your beard is safe, lol 😂 yes your graph's and analysis is spot on, I'm always so impressed with your predictions, but allow me to contribute to your analysis, I might make a diversion here, I was in kathelehong today, I stronghold of the ANC, I earn my money in that particular area for more than 20 years, my business depends on the people of Katorus, so I can speak with good authority about the dynamics of the part of Ekhuruleni, as I travel to a section of kathelehong today, the ANC have a constituency office where there is a hive of activity 7 day's a week, and by the way,they occupied the same office which was previously an ESKOM payment office, I don't know are you aware of the impact of the ANC in that part of the world, the people was passionate about the ANC, but to my surprise, it looks more than a mortuary than an offence, so I can assure you, your beard is safe, maybe you'll have your beard until it turns to Gray 😂😂 anyway as always thank you for your great show

@Nhlanhla187 Ай бұрын

Intshebe yakho i safe baba

@thokomhlongo3751 Ай бұрын

Anything is possible

@mandlenkosishabalala8890 Ай бұрын

The analysis Sizwe Mpofu-Welsh makes, makes more sense than the opinion polls because of the empirical evidence this anaysis brings to the fore. Comparing the local elections with national and provincial elections is interesting especually for this upcoming elections. The empirical evidence as per this analysis among other things is that the ANC has increased its performance from any preceding local elections to the succeeding national and provincial elections. With the instability of coalitions in the metros where the ANC is not in control, one can expect the ANC to move up in the regions of those metro coalitions. The metros constitute 40% of the voting population in the country.

@phillyndlovu4735 Ай бұрын

I think you are correct Sizwe, the ANC wll be bellow 50%.

@bonganishezi3449 Ай бұрын

ANC will be lucky if they get 20%

@lindiwechamane1643 Ай бұрын

Thats very good news 😅

@mduduzilebelo6047 Ай бұрын

Ramaphoria, SMW ;)

@thatomkhonto1725 Ай бұрын

Viva Mk ❤

@trevormain1358 12 күн бұрын

If it's true. Then I'm truly proud of SA.

@PutinForces Ай бұрын

Water , electricity, greencontracts to work on.long term tenders must be bolished

@user-kp2vj3pl2w Ай бұрын

Ayeye...I go with thy producer😅

@mondicentre5117 Ай бұрын

Hmmmm 2024 election year.

@simphiwetom9509 Ай бұрын

I pray that ANC gets 10%

@kopanokhumalo4344 Ай бұрын

Eisj bra I'd like to combine prayers and pray for jail time for all the ANC comrades

@khayavanto1658 Ай бұрын

2% is all they deserve

@liquidice2783 Ай бұрын

@kopanokhumalo4344 I'd like to also combine prayers and hope they lock them up and throw away the keys

@berniediedricks5681 Ай бұрын

Live chat gives politicians a quick birds eye view as 2 what the people are stirring up, then they should be able 2 douse fires way b4 electioneering 💞

@Geezweez788 Ай бұрын

Mr Mpofu i put it to you, judge Mogoeng mogoeng is somewhere there at MK party structured.

@berniediedricks5681 Ай бұрын

I'm still reeling from the TRUTH wrt to madam Speaker of Parliament, ANC will have 2 work hard...

@lindajali745 Ай бұрын

ANC has been nose diving like my beloved KAIZER CHIEFS FC difference's KAIZER CHIEFS FC will bounce back with a bang GOD WILLING 🙏🏾 VIVA MK 🇿🇦✊🏾✌🏾

@Sizwe.MpofuWalsh Ай бұрын

😂

@kennyleyland433 Ай бұрын

Interesting analysis Sizwe. Just looking at the Western Cape and the DA demise. This is before the DA position on Gaza and the potential loss of its Muslim support and colored vote comes into effect #2024. my then biggest question is "At National level, where is the DA getting this so called 13 -20%" No analyst has given a breakdown of demographic votes showing the DA strongholds and voter district patterns that mitigate this hallucination. Perhaps you can break it down for us. Honestly, i only see 9-13% (The failing Steenhuisen project)

@mphotsilo2650 Ай бұрын

Can you please be so kind to share the data graphs on your social media please

@molabaxaba Ай бұрын

I am with Oratilwe

@andremarais2706 Ай бұрын

An MK ANC EFF coalition or DA and the rest. Scary prospects.

@JosiahManganyi-xs8bi Ай бұрын

KZN coalition between ANC and IFP! WC coalition between ANC and DA!Gauteng coalition ANC and DA!My prediction nationally for the ANC is 35%-38%!MK has already done the damage!

@nomfunekonosilela3895 Ай бұрын

IFP has already signed a moonshot pact with DA that they will not work with ANC but the funny thing is John says they will work with ANC if they keep Ramaphosa as president 😂😂😂

@JosiahManganyi-xs8bi Ай бұрын

@@nomfunekonosilela3895 That moonshot pact is not practical!Look at municipalities!

@user-ww5qw8jd3b Ай бұрын

Ramaphosa must make coalition with DA. EFF and or MK will further decay this country

@zerog1037 Ай бұрын

@@nomfunekonosilela3895why ramphosa. Thts a terrible proposition. Rhamposa made so many poor decisions and zuma is one of them

@lindajali745 Ай бұрын

I wish it falls further below 30%

@letlhogonoloaulstonmorwakg7379 Ай бұрын

I wish they get 2 seats 😅

@user-ww5qw8jd3b Ай бұрын

Below 30 will be good but with the emergence of MK and EFF, we will be fighting losing battle

@zerog1037 Ай бұрын

No. 30% is a good spot for them to wakeup. At the end of the day we don't really have another party to lead us. DA is white lead, EFF and mk are too radical. ANC is not as radical but still liberal enough to spark the change people want if not for their corruption

@douglasdebruyn9214 Ай бұрын

Due to the MK factor, I will give ANC 42.5%

@sicelomkhize6501 Ай бұрын

Anyone with the country's interest at heart will never vote for ANC

@tyronef87 Ай бұрын

Great analysis but technically on the graph the ANC does always do better in the following national election after a local election, it's very small but the next blue point is always above the red point. It's not statistically significant but just a correction. I do agree that I do not seeing it happen this time

@kylepetersen4859 Ай бұрын

I think yes

@ThembaTsela Ай бұрын

Where is the IEC judgement on Zuma vs IEC

@sibongileviolet887 Ай бұрын

Nomakanjani, they go under

@timoconnor1495 Ай бұрын

My question is "What has the exsisting government done with reguard to the load shedding of both electricity and water shortages,pit latrine replacement in rural provinces and foremost crime?Another big issue is cadre deployment .Nothing at all.Great frustration country wide has resulted in do it yourself kits in western cape .Example loo at Orania as an example

@user-qp2ge6tx6j Ай бұрын

With the MK formation ANC could well be at lower 30s

@PinoPulella-gz2gr Ай бұрын

Zimbabwe’s new currency trading stronger than the rand - for now Zimbabwe’s new currency, the ZiG, strengthened a day after its debut, the central bank said. The currency gained 0.2% to 13.53 per US dollar, according to data published on the Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe’s website on Tuesday. The rand was trading at R18.47 to the dollar by 12h20 on Tuesday.