SMCI joins the Nasdaq 100 | Five stocks to watch this week

No video

SMCI joins the Nasdaq 100 | Five stocks to watch this week | Market rotating to risk off??

Рет қаралды 300

Күн бұрын

Hi All,
A weird week that was really all about the rotation that started after CPI came out on Thursday morning. I'm not sure if it continues, but I wanted to record a scattering of thoughts of how risk management might be running things at funds near terms given how insane Thursday was. I also talk about how #SMCI, #NETFLIX, #unitedhealthcare, and #johnsonandjohnson will likely tell you which direction the market is heading in over the next few months, and how this might be one of the more important weeks for the market in the next few months.
Please let me know if you have any mic suggestions.
Let me know what you all think in the comments.
Enjoy.
Please like and subscribe!
Disclaimer: This video is not trading or investment advice, but for general informational purposes only. This video represents my personal opinions which I am sharing publicly as my personal blog. Futures, stocks, bonds trading of any kind involves a lot of risk. No guarantee of any profit whatsoever is made. In fact, you may lose everything you have. So be very careful. I guarantee no profit whatsoever, You assume the entire cost and risk of any trading or investing activities you choose to undertake. You are solely responsible for making your own investment decisions. Owners/authors of this video, its representatives, its principals, its moderators and its members, are NOT registered as securities broker-dealers either with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, CFTC or with any other securities/regulatory authority. Consult with a registered investment advisor, broker-dealer, and/or financial advisor. Watching this video or reading any of my publications, you are agreeing to these terms.

Пікірлер: 18

@dansheahan4308 Ай бұрын

great video. Allowed for clear setups after seeing unh run so much.

@Auland0325 Ай бұрын

So many hypotheticals on macro haha I enjoy your insights it makes me think a lot about the markets in different perspectives

@sleepysol Ай бұрын

We're at a weird point. It's way way too early to be extremely bearish if you think a recession is coming, but also hype in the ai space and mega caps isn't being matched by estimate raises for 2025 and 2026. So the question is trying to figure out the timing of all this and if a recession is coming and if it does come how bad will it be? Weird time.

@darrendent8288 Ай бұрын

@20:52 On our Twitch stream, we have said for the longest time that healthcare has been extremely overlooked as a sector after the pandemic was done. I have UNH shares, and they're up biglyish so far this pre-market. I hope that it carries momentum for the rest of the year.

@darrendent8288 Ай бұрын

@35:19 Sheesh, Sleepy out here livin his best life at music festivals hehe

@sycamorewest Ай бұрын

hey sleepysol, new but watcher of all of ur uploads. you are super consistent with your takes on the market but also sufficiently wide and it really helps with level-setting what overall market expectation / dynamics are. i'm not sure if you've previously talked about this but can you go over your overall strategy / allocation? it would help put in context your views

@sleepysol Ай бұрын

Great question. So my general view is the consumer is weak but not broken and clearly pulling back *but* not breaking. You see this mostly in the 30d delinquency numbers. They aren't going up but spending is pulling back. So people are throwing in the towel. This has been reflected in the market by selling off more consumer names like retail/disc/food/staples and buying banks because they benefit from rate cuts, and more importantly buying data center/ai because that's the only growth story. Plus buying the cash heavy companies (the megas) since the bank blow up in March last year. Now the issue is estimates for the mega cap eps hasn't gone up materially, so as rate cuts get priced in they will see weakness. How much and when? Idk. Will the ai growth be there if the mega caps see weakness? Idk as well but thst seems more likely than not if smci can't rip today (Monday). How am I positioned? I'm long a lot of defensives. Basket of utilities, huge bank exposure, and building more Healthcare exposure likely this week. Especially if the reaction to jnj and unh are outsized based on their earnings. Besides that i own some cheap software names but I expect them to get cheaper before they go up. And I'm not really short anything right now.

@sleepysol Ай бұрын

Hope this helps!

@sycamorewest Ай бұрын

@@sleepysol Thanks for the reply - I meant my question as more of a future vid idea suggestion for you but appreciate you taking the time to write a full response. do you basically run a basket of 20-40 names tactically rotating between your exposures depending market conditions? it seems you are mostly LO/occasionally long-short but do you typically employ some gross leverage? do you have a mental model of how much of book should be ST vs. LT in terms of playing out the thesis and how short of a leash do you give your trades to risk control? agree that looking at HC is a good angle for Trump trade. I'm also looking at the GSEs but aware it is one of those 'waiting for godot' calls for like a decade

@Jonah-SF Ай бұрын

Brilliant break down and thank you for the great insights, as for healthcare sector maybe you can go over $HUM

@joeymachado3122 Ай бұрын

lol i come from fintwit. i saw you clowning on this one prominent fool so i have been impressed with the analysis

@sleepysol Ай бұрын

Glad you like my stuff! Hope it isn't too boring.

@luisbarragan9555 Ай бұрын

Idk man. I don't think the QQQ/Semis trade is over. I think it still has much higher to go.

@sleepysol Ай бұрын

They could go higher. Not doubting that but the massive outperformance and being the beta of the market seems to be ending. Especially if smci doesn't just rip higher.