@Sleepysol - great video, again love that I found your channel. What’s your thought process before Salesforce, I’m curious so it compares to mine as I’m long on them. And would love if you could cover names like Nio, Godaddy or even Roku. Especially with money possibly getting cheaper.
@GrantLeeEdwards10 сағат бұрын
Excellent commentary. New sub - looking fwd to following. Thx. 🙏
@jeffkessel828812 сағат бұрын
This guy should have like 20k followers. Good videos.
@darrendent828814 сағат бұрын
@16:23 interesting. In that case, what are your thoughts on $RELY in that scenario? Digital financial services company that is a competitor to Moneygram and Western union.
@lowdowski533721 сағат бұрын
Did you do one on Baidu earnings?
@sleepysol19 сағат бұрын
No didn't have time. Sorry
@paulf3353Күн бұрын
Thanks Sleepy. Great DD! Would love to hear your views on Intel, beaten down and hated quite a bit
@sleepysolКүн бұрын
Hmmm, I'll try to do a video on that next week.
@darrendent8288Күн бұрын
Also…. 75 more subscribers till a 1,000 dude!
@sleepysolКүн бұрын
I KNOW I WOKE UP AND WE WERE UP CLOSE TO 20 FROM 907 IT WAS AWESOME.
@darrendent8288Күн бұрын
@40:27 good to know that your actually a Peloton user. What demographic in your opinion uses the product?
@sleepysolКүн бұрын
i think the future users are ppl who live in teh suburbs or have money to live in cities and have busy lives so they can't do workout classes but like not having to think about workouts. Whether its running/biking/lifting/yoga/other, they're great for just letting my brain shut off and getting a good workout in.
@DontDopyMyNameКүн бұрын
Love it, saw your page through James!
@sleepysolКүн бұрын
welcome!
@bpearsondcКүн бұрын
Thank you. I agree bottom is in, many levers (sub price, tread growth, new equipment/screens, corporate) and situations (con fitness expansion again, seasonality) are not even considered in the calculations. I feel it is still priced for zero growth or slightly negative. Even at $100mln FCF where it is today is fair.
@markom001Күн бұрын
Man, your level of DD on this name was and is amazing. Really good job Sleepy, pleasure learning from you! I played it with a hundred bucks like we joked in the previous PTON video and we will see where it goes🙌 Thank you & Have a great weekend!
@sleepysolКүн бұрын
I'm glad you at least made some money. Money is money! I'm hoping it re rates to 7 - 9
@darrendent8288Күн бұрын
I played with $100 and 2 call options 😂
@mexitronКүн бұрын
Congrats! 🥳🥳🥳
@sleepysolКүн бұрын
Thanks.
@RoTelnCheeseКүн бұрын
This was a great call, it was very risky but you had the guts to make it. Well done sir
@sleepysolКүн бұрын
Yea I was very nervous going public with it. Because it wouldn't have been a quiet blowup if it did.
@RoTelnCheeseКүн бұрын
@@sleepysol this is a game of risk and you nailed it, so well done 👏🏽
@sycamorewest2 күн бұрын
Great call Sleepy! Are you taking wins off table or holding?
@sleepysolКүн бұрын
Both. I have a near term risk reversal that I closed the 3.5 calls when the stock was at 4.2 (missed a lot of upside) and my 3 puts will expire today. Still holding the 4p/5c and 4p/7c risk reversals for 2026 and my commons. No plans on selling those
@cesarcastillo53332 күн бұрын
Thx for this Sleepy! Absolute GOAT call
@sleepysolКүн бұрын
I wish. Hopefully we'll see what's next
@994sho2 күн бұрын
Congrats sleepy…bought 10 lots when you first mentioned this on YT at almost the bottom ($2.9x)…happy to see earnings go well…I still need to look at the FCF number to see how it holds up before deciding to take profits
@sleepysol2 күн бұрын
Congratulations!
@d.m.web-development2 күн бұрын
Can you do a follow up on Peloton after their earnings call today? To discuss what things look like going forward. @sunnysol
@sleepysol2 күн бұрын
Sure. I'll try to do it tonight to post tomorrow morning. But it will be at the latest this weekend.
@d.m.web-development2 күн бұрын
@@sleepysolthanks man, appreciate the content and what you do here on KZfaq.
@JohnT4434 күн бұрын
the company still seems far too expensive.......the debt is a huge albatross
@sleepysol4 күн бұрын
a large chunk of debt goes away if they break above 5, and the remaining amount won't take long to pay off if they're doing 300+ mm in EBIDTA annually. They'll only need to roll over about 35 - 50% depending on how much cash they want to hold. Suddenly their debt pile goes from 1.2b to about 400mm ish.
@JohnT4434 күн бұрын
@@sleepysol excuse my ignorance, but how does it go away if they break above 5? if you mean it's converted into shares, then i don't know how that helps the value from my perspective
@sleepysol3 күн бұрын
@@JohnT443 it is priced for bankruptcy, if they have less debt they will not be as close to bankruptcy so the valuation will increase. It won't matter that near term there are more shares outstanding. If you want examples of how this works check out energy names in 2020 that did massive ATMs and then went up on those issuances.
@Jonah-SF4 күн бұрын
Well it happened Sleepy :D Elon posted on X "joking" he is ready for a role in the government which made BTC and DOGE go up, I came back to re-watch, what do you think of follow-up on this topic and what will happen to $TSLA if this really happens
@colintalkstech4 күн бұрын
Great video! I'm pretty aggressively long on this name as of the last few weeks as well. Peak pessimism and apathy from the market. I see a lot of similarities to how CVNA price action looked at the lows. Granted, apples and oranges, but CVNA bottomed at -98.80% and PTON appears to have bottomed at -98.75%. Both had/have volume profile peaks at the lows, and institutional ownership ticking up meaningfully. I'm not saying we see a similar move to CVNA (+2,200% off the lows) but I do think that $15 - $20 could trade in the next 18 to 24 months if the stars align for them here over the next few earnings reports, shorts are forced to capitulate, and FOMO sentiment returns.
@sleepysol4 күн бұрын
Ya that's my general valuation feel as well. Could pton get above 30, 40, 50? Yes. But it's likely as a debt free company with low growth buying back 1% of shares a quarter. They won't rip higher like cvna unless something insane happens. Which I would love tbh.
@tommilikeskeyboards98255 күн бұрын
How do you go about determining the appropriate allocation to Chinese equities within your portfolio?
@sleepysol3 күн бұрын
It depends on what you think the reward is for the risk. I don't view tencent as risky so it's a 4% position and won't be sold unless something significant changes. All my other positions are like 1 - 1.5% or less if options because I don't trust them.
@994sho5 күн бұрын
Agree on the baba strong support around $80…holding for now and will re-assess as further Chinese economic data are out for the rest of the year. My bull case is still $120 by Q2 of 2025.
@NeilHopper-fh4gc5 күн бұрын
Thank you fingers cross I have 10k shares average cost 5.44
@yibin21325 күн бұрын
nice update! hopefully Chinese equities finish the year strong after the ups and downs through out this year
@sleepysol5 күн бұрын
I hope so too!
@koopa317 күн бұрын
@44:30 “People will say like they’re just throwing darts on a dart board”.. “Fineee, the stock’s three dollars”, Lol. That legitimately made me laugh. I bought PTON in Dec. 2019 when it dropped ~10% because of a Christmas Ad (rode it all the way up and back down to sell at a net zero, ha). I think you make a great case for this, thanks for all the information. I’ll jump back on this train with you ✊🏼
@sleepysol6 күн бұрын
Glad you liked it. And I'm glad you liked my general point. Upside it huge if it moves, and if it doesn't....ehh its 3 dollars.
@994sho7 күн бұрын
Thoughts on the Chinese earnings from past week? JD did great, BABA didn’t look too good but somehow still got some sympathies rise on Friday.
@sleepysol7 күн бұрын
I'll have thoughts on them either tomorrow night or Monday
@markom0017 күн бұрын
Man, what a great breakdown and pitch. I love that you also commented on the management because in these kind of situations, the management team is make it or break it for the company. I gotta say I’m very interested, the thesis has serious foundations. Like you said, why not throw a hundred bucks and see where it goes. I might do just that. Thank you, Sleepy! Have a good rest of the weekeend!
@sleepysol6 күн бұрын
Hope you had a good weekend as well! Thanks for the kind comment. I'm glad you liked the video.
@francis5637 күн бұрын
Wait, this whole time, i thought you were just shit posting on Twitter 😂
@sleepysol6 күн бұрын
If its earnings aren't good it will be just shitposting on twitter.
@Jonah-SF9 күн бұрын
Amazing video Sleepy, what do you think of $CRH in general [martial/infrastructure sector] and as an addition to S&P in the next round
@sleepysol6 күн бұрын
I will check it out.
@David_son.0f.lar049 күн бұрын
Alot of green this week
@darrendent828811 күн бұрын
@4:15 Ironically enough. I always used to say that Qdoba is better…. My view has changed to Chipotle having better flavor lol
@sleepysol11 күн бұрын
I get a lot of pushback for my hot takes.
@darrendent828811 күн бұрын
@@sleepysol Still freakin uncanny how you called the CEO change 2-3 days ago you Nostradamus you.
@sleepysol11 күн бұрын
don't give me too much credit, it was obviously coming. I just didn't know when.
@salterwackadooday11 күн бұрын
@@sleepysolgood enough to make me a regular viewer from now on. Looking forward to next video 👍
@sleepysol9 күн бұрын
@@salterwackadooday Thanks for the support! The next video is an hour long video on my long peloton thesis. :) We'll be back to normal macro/less insanely risky stock commentary next week.
@lowdowski533712 күн бұрын
We need to see the weekly trend change to uptrend. Stay patient. Maybe at best will try massive double bottom.
@sycamorewest12 күн бұрын
The china story for SBUX will not work when you have Luckin and Cotti at a price war at 10 RMB ($1.38) while Starbucks is still priced at the go-go years (35 RMB / $4.86). It's not to say you won't have px insensitive coastal office workers maintain demand levels but it's impossible to go back to penetration growth on store growth in lower tier cities, SBUX is simply not in position to be in the forefront of the trend of coffee penetration in China
@sleepysol12 күн бұрын
They don't need to be #1 they just need China to go from 13 cups per year per capita to like 60 which is 1/4th thr demand japan has. If it gets there sbux will see 4x+ growth if not more. Price is somewhat irrelevant longer term for the China story. Near term it is an issue though
@darrendent828812 күн бұрын
Thanks for the coverage on $CEG. Gonna be a long time holder.
@fetch228812 күн бұрын
Great video! Any thoughts on MGM? Stock pulled back some after earnings and concerns about weaker F1 event this year but had some insiders step in and buy a good chunk + a lot of their cash flow going to buybacks the past few years
@markom00113 күн бұрын
Hi Sleepy! Thanks for covering CEG earnings. Solid earnings, and I agree that they will probably be a slow grinder up from this point, which is also fine with me, slow and steady wins the race! For this week I’m looking at some Latam fintech - NU and DLO!
@sleepysol13 күн бұрын
Nice. Meli did very well. Expect good things from NU.
@theTonyMa13 күн бұрын
first :^)
@sleepysol13 күн бұрын
Confirmed!
@994sho14 күн бұрын
Just read your substack article on this...appreciate the amount of research and thoughts you put in
@markom00114 күн бұрын
Wow Unity has been a mees on the management side… crazy Sleepy, any plans on doing CEG post earnings review video?
@darrendent828814 күн бұрын
Im in favor for a $CEG , $GEV, and $EMR for a utilities post earnings.
@sleepysol13 күн бұрын
Ceg is done. Working through thr backlog right now.
@RustMoments14 күн бұрын
Unity is what runs Rust
@5kplamse16 күн бұрын
Okay, this audio is good. keep it this way. there is anotber channel called Modern MBA. if u can achieve that kind of audio then u will be golden
@darrendent828817 күн бұрын
@9:45 or they will take their toddlers to disney.
@sleepysol16 күн бұрын
Disney is too expensive. Its a real issue.
@luisbarragan955517 күн бұрын
Did you average down on Trip? I bought some call spreads.
@sleepysol16 күн бұрын
I did via call sales. I'm still very negative
@darrendent828817 күн бұрын
As a traveler myself starting to look at cruises. Since everything is planned out and I don’t have to plan as much.
@Auland032517 күн бұрын
Dang 500 shares 😅 you must manage a lot of capital then
@sleepysol17 күн бұрын
It's my own capital.
@Auland032517 күн бұрын
@@sleepysol dang props hopefully one day I get to that point
@anonymoosemanga17 күн бұрын
@Auland0325 you will! I believe :)
@RoTelnCheese17 күн бұрын
Brought some today when I saw the drop. I think short term it remains bearish but I’m long term bullish on it
@sleepysol17 күн бұрын
ya, that's how I'm looking at it. We probably won't see lower than 105 so worst case 5 points of downside for potentially 20ish upside within the next 9 months.
@RoTelnCheese16 күн бұрын
@@sleepysol I agree. The US consumer is showing weakness and hence bookings are slowing down, but we’re seeing that across the board in other big names. I still like their free cash flow, they’re still growing and they have moat. On a separate note, what do you think of Dell at $88? I’ve been buying the drop, it could easily come down to $66 area. I wonder if your thesis has changed. Thank you sleepy
@sleepysol15 күн бұрын
@@RoTelnCheese i'm worried about their layoffs they just did recently. If demand is really that strong into 2025 why are you laying off sales people. Its something I'm watching.
@RoTelnCheese15 күн бұрын
@@sleepysol yes that is a concern. Also Michael Dell sold billions in shares at the peak. It did a 10x since Covid, still up nicely since the start of the year. We shall see!
@Joe11-2817 күн бұрын
Thanks for the video SleepySol. Love the content you provide
@sleepysol17 күн бұрын
My pleasure! Glad you like them!
@Nathan.Robert18 күн бұрын
Hey $CEG had some good earnings!!
@sleepysol18 күн бұрын
Ya they're going to continue to do well because they're aren't one off. If a data center is built with their power they power it until it shuts down.
@simonbinxs18 күн бұрын
Please do deeper dive based on those papers you have read. Also, Sept rate cuts, how they will affect the carry trade? Might've make it worse? Fed might not cut because of it? You said you will talk about Tesla, will u do separate vid on it? rhx
@shlk719 күн бұрын
Hey Sleepy - thanks for this. Since you called out Clorox, can you check Reckitt? Their stuck plummeted because of the cases, but again as a staple CPG (mostly driven by Lysol and Mucinex) and restructure plan what do you think? (Obviously assuming they can even find a buyer for their divisions, but they did put Air Wick brand as a cherry on top - its a cash generator that I feel Private equity might get interested in)