Spillover Implications of a China Growing 0-2%

  Рет қаралды 2,212

M-RCBG_Harvard

M-RCBG_Harvard

4 ай бұрын

Educators, policymakers and business leaders need to decide how to respond to the implications of China’s economic slowdown. Options have not been adequately considered because the extent of the slowdown has not been understood and acknowledged. Even today international organizations, governments, and prominent public intellectuals endorse rosy assumptions that would not be taken seriously elsewhere. It’s time to talk about the slow growth era in China. To set the table for that, the structural economic problems that reduce China’s potential growth to 0-2% must be recognized.
This hybrid seminar was given by Daniel H. Rosen, Founding Partner, Rhodium Group. It was co-sponsored by the Rajawali Foundation Institute for Asia and the Fairbank Center for Chinese Studies.
Current research useful for understanding the analysis to be presented can be found here:
rhg.com/research/through-the-...
chinapathfinder.org/wp-conten...

Пікірлер: 6
@bleacherz7503
@bleacherz7503 4 ай бұрын
Maybe the Chinese have figured out that GDP growth is not the correct metric - how much US gdp is deficit spending and wealth transfer from the middle class to the 1%?
@dirthgr
@dirthgr 4 ай бұрын
May I help with respect to question re forecast Chinese OFDI of 1.4 trillion now thru 2028 / 5 = 280 billion per year...still plausible but a touch higher than the quick estimate given in Q&A session...rgds.
@sebastianmuller7276
@sebastianmuller7276 4 ай бұрын
Thank you very much, Daniel H. Rosen from Rhodium Group for these breaking insights about the slowdown of Chinese economy. Appreciate the methods of Rhodium Group looking for the basic data instead of Goverment's aggregated figures. Mindblowing diagrams! Even nobody can predict China's way we all have to change our assumptions und strategies.
@patbyrneme007
@patbyrneme007 4 ай бұрын
This whole presentation is very risky being based on questioning Chinese statistics. I am not at all convinced by the charts provided. In the type of planned economy that China has, if its GDP ifigure was so false it would cause chaos throughout its planning and policy framework. And would threaten the future credibility of its whole economic reporting system. This is a massive assumption that we should not be so eager to adopt. I prefer to look at what is happening in individual sectors. And here China seems to be making rapid progress in technology and penetration of markets in so many industries. And this ties in with current government strategy of switching to more value production.
@junkscience6397
@junkscience6397 4 ай бұрын
Have you been paying attention to ANY of the societal and economic trends going on right now inside the PRC? "Lying Flat"? Cancelling of youth unemployment updates? White Paper and "I have nothing to say" protests? Bank withdrawal freezes? Bankruptcy of the second largest property developer and threats of bankruptcy from the top developer? Demographic and marriage registration collapse? Your so-called "rapid progress" chimera is exactly what we should be DOUBTING. With PLENTY of reason.
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