GDP is “strong” because of government spending

Only government spending is keeping us from a real recession but to me that means we are actually in a recession. Only government debt is keeping GDP positive; what a joke. It’s also very inflationary!

In the ‘20’s , by the time you contacted your broker and he fulfilled your order, it took several days to “ dump “ your stocks. So the crash took months to happen. In the ‘90’s it took several hours as people were generally still getting their news through television and newspaper. So the crash took weeks to happen. Today people can grab their phone and dump stocks in a minute. Whenever the next crash happens it will be the fastest downturn ever. Potentially a 30% drop in as little as 48 hours.

Commerical real estate is going to crater lots of smaller banks. That is the next crisis in waiting.

Every time someone shows that historic interest rate graph I cringe over the irrelevance of it relative to current prices of real estate. If you want interest rates to make sense, then tie it to the relative value of the average home cost at that time... Homes have never been so expensive relative to the average wage, so 5 percent on a 400 K home is nothing like 5 percent on a 40k home.

There's never any shortage of risks that can prick a bubble. When the time is right for the bubble to burst, one of those lurking risks will step up to the plate and do the honors. It's not that we're waiting for the risk to appear... we're waiting for the bubble to be at the right stage of "ripeness". I think we're pretty close.

Good luck to everybody! ❤😊

The perception of wealth is often hidden by a curtain of debt.

I believe it is a fallacy that everyone keeps pointing to past bubbles and saying "see the market isn't that overpriced yet" as if the market always has to inflate into a giant bubble before popping. What if 2000 and 2008 were the largest bubbles of our generation? Then all of these people waiting for another giant bubble of that size will ALWAYS miss the market tops going forward. It is entirely possible that for the next 30 years the market never sways more than 20-30% off course.

I liked how you analyzed and told we are not seeing any catalyst…good analysis…very good

0:50 "So where is it?" It's already here. Just like in Dec 2008 when the NBER (our gubmint) finally announced that, not only are we in a recession, we HAVE already been in one for an entire year, as they backdated to Dec 2007. It will be the same this time as we, once again, are in an election year.

You never mentioned another major market bull factor... Insanely high levels of government spending

Always very well thought through, objective and well presented - thank you

Fantastic analysis, love your work.

How can you calculate real GDP when we are going into debt $1T every 100 days?? If I borrow tons if money, I can't claim that money as "income"!! Smh.. 🤔

What could be the catalyst that sparks the next recession?

I just keep loading AMC and WW the small caps have a 50% rally due to make up the convergence with snp

Catalyst-Bond auctions having to raise interest rates to attract buyers.

Amazing fundamental and technical analyasis underrated channel

Commercial real estate bubble burst is a likely trigger.

FED…. Printing press tho

More inflation is on its way, you don’t send out 85 billion to the MIC and not expect inflation not to rise. Next gen is having an even harder time buying a house today. Food prices are rising faster than I have seen in my lifetime. I was very young in 70's an 80's so hard to compare. In 70's Credit cards where created to expand money supply in those days, and boomer bought everything from the future generations that where not born yet. What will be done this time to keep an even larger amount of money to keep growing. I also have a hard time believing that growth through inflation leads to real growth in the physical world. The new stuff we build today is very cheaply made and will not last generations as in past goods and building as of the past. As I age I feel we as a civilization may be ready to return to a natural order of things as we lived centuries ago. We are starting to see technology doesn’t really give us happiness or will an ever expanding money supply done artificially.

Hi, great video, perhaps the way Mag 7 has evolved has changed the nature of the relevancy of the Rate of Growth metric for the S&P500. Maybe you could do one for just the Mag 7 companies and compare? Or the top 10 companies.

I just bought on Friday because i seen everything dipped. This analysis makes me feel better lol

Good thing we emptied so much of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. 🤦‍♂️

Could govt debt be cause of a crash?

Average pay in 1980 was about 1/5 what it is today. Average houses were 1/10 what they are today. But what this person is leaving out is that the housing is completely skewed by super high cost areas where there is not enough supply relative to demand. If you take a normal area into consideration like Detroit and its suburbs, the average wages vs average home prices for the same homes have not really changed much. If you consider that many more women have joined the workforce and make the same money as men, this makes even more sense for how much more expensive the newly built homes cost since now 2 incomes are paying for one home as the excess money has driven up the cost of living for everyone.

I'm looking for a 3 month long melt up soon. I'm short the S&P right now but I'm about to close that trade and go long with the profits.

Good point.. the market has been crazy lately, a few surprises here and there.. with all the global happenings taking place I think it’s safe to say that a severe global recession is looming..

Keep watching initial and ongoing unemployment claims. The next time there's a real, >30% S&P 500 draw down, whenever that occurs, it'll be coincident with a several % point increase in unemployment rate. Nothing short of 5 or 10m people out of work will outweigh the momentum of this government deficit spending.

OH GAWD

Janet Yellen will not let the market decline..

Great info. Thanks!

Unemployment rate tends to stay low for long time and once it crosses 4 percent, ussualy accelerates exponentially and could be the trigger.

I appreciate your analysis! The catalyst could be the Govt debt. It's out of control! This week will tell whether the Feds will hold the course, reduce or increase rates, if inflation rises and is still sticky. On the macro front, Israel & Iran appear to be at a stand off. Markets are rallying today in front of earnings and later data this week, oil is up just slightly as is the 10yr., more companies are announcing layoffs... I'd like to see a 10% correction from the high and then perhaps we rally to October...

Not all oil is the same.

I know government spending factors in but does government spending on foreign aid like to Ukraine factor into GDP calculations? Because that's not even directly reinvested domestically for the citizens supposedly benefiting in terms of GDP per capita.

This time, the catalyst will be the rupture of the New Madrid Fault system.

Real economy is gonna dump. Market's still gonna pump

So sell everything now?

I don’t think this one will be caused by people coming to their senses and seeing the game the fed is playing but it will need a catalyst. Who could know which catalyst it will be but it can’t be far off

Excellent work

Literally one day into a counter rally on a downtrend we start hearing the bubble speak again. Oh by the dip, oh it's different this time, nothing to see here, just keep buying more

CRE, consumer debt, government debt, car prices and payments. Insurance costs. It will not hold up for much longer with high inflation and all these other headwinds.

The S&P 500 is rising, but with the currency issuance of the last 5 years, there is room for it to rise much further. Job data looks good, but with the record immigration, it's difficult to know where the true balance lies.

But, still bears are not strong enough to hammer down the bulls....not yet

Game of trades:"Without a catalyst" China/Opec/Russia/Iran: **smirks in the corner** I think war might be the catalyst, followed up with an oil shock, and investors are more than likely playing that card. Even mexico is bracing for an oil shock. I hope it's a pandemic and not war 😬😵‍💫. Maybe Powells resignation will be the trigger haha

What's going on???

DJI and SP still has 15-20% upside from ATH before the big crash. Blow off top till November.

Wow, that's a significant amount. But considering the current world recession, I wonder how it will impact people's portfolios.

Government debt is the catalyst for this one…

well thank goodness im a prepper ... i dont have to worry about a run on the banks ... yep you guessed it, i dont have no money in them anyways 🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣

Catalyst might be the popping cryptobubble similar to the tech bubble. btc rips to 500k and after that the music stops. hopefully u have cashd out by then.

Very nice video.. Potential shock : China or Japan...

We will elevate Africa and continue the stock market rise. You heard it here.

It would be bitcoin crash

Oil at $111? Right around the corner......$140 by October!

Are we in housing bubble like in august 2007. Seems demand is bigger than back then?

Believe it or not, not yet.

I think an oil shock of 40% ish would also trigger an immediate rate cut by the Fed, perhaps a 50bp cut.

I think you did not address something. Goods in America are produced overseas. Just go to a toy store and flip over any toy to see where it is made. So, an oil shock may not hit the US due to our high output, but it would hit other countries. Cost of their energy usage and transport costs would increase, causing the to increase the purchase price of their goods to Americans.

it was here years ago

catalyst for a recession..., how about interest payment on national debt exceeding $1T per year and sharply going up from there?

Instead of oil, albeit speculation, it may be the fixed mortgage rate renewals that will be due for many as of 2024 and 2025. I'm not sure how the middle class will handle the new mortgage rates all at once - especially in 2025.

if if if if if if

Everyone works from home now so consumers don’t need the gas anymore. Will only affect prices at the store.

They will print if the stock market collapses

The rubber-band will SNAP soon!

SPX melt up to 600, btc to 240k. Every analyst is calling for a left translated cycle for btc this time. This fall will be the crash due to bond default and solvency crisis. Keep your BTC off exchanges and reduce money from banks as they will collapse.

The gdp growth mentioned - this maybe from all the government money printing over past couple yrs. Here government taking in about 4.5 trillion in revenues but spending 7+ trilllion. So here government buying a lot and hiring a lot so this pushing gdp up and lowering unemployment. Having debt grow rather then real productive gdp growth?

In order for for those who control oil to keep taking from the poor and giving to themselves, there needs to be an oil breakout. Reason - The next recession may be the last oil price pump before the world goes full electric

They are cooking the numbers...

Oil (WTI ) even if is suppose to come down to 73-74 usd where is the weekly / monthly 200 MA , stock market and btc needs to come down significantly Nasdaq 16300 at least , and BTC 55k , I think even if Oil will come down to 74 usd this will be only temporary , will jump very fast up.

well we dont need oil no more so i guess oil prices dont matter 🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣

People have been saying this for 4 years, and they will be saying it in 5 more. It will be a long process. You have time to find your hedge. Think digital obviously because we don’t live in the past anymore .

stocks surge right before the downturn

Geez I love watching your videos... great content 👏 👏 👏 Def oil shock due to ongoing and expanding wars...

Add another $95 billion to the tab.....FJB

GDP minus gov new debt, this is your recession. Economy will run until money becomes worthless.

A Solar Flare

Crude oil to 110 is possible

Peter, you do good work usually. However on this video you fell into what’s often called the oil production fallacy. Yes, U.S. oil production is up and reserves are greater still … but it does little to maintain gas prices or promote American energy independence. Unfortunately the oil produced in the U.S. is, by and large, the wrong kind that can be refined domestically. That oil gets traded out of country for oil imports because a new refinery in U.S.A. hasn’t been built in 50 years. Might want to rethink your thesis.

The market has been crazy lately, a few surprises here and there.. with all the global happenings taking place I think it’s safe to say that a severe global recession is looming

3 WW this time for me.

The world is not as oil-dependent as it once was. We have electric cars and other types of energy now - solar and wind.

Pullback now, 1 interest rate cut before election. Stock market rally to the moon through election and then major crash when inflation picks up and fed pivot back. Imo

The election will be the shock

Just wait until 2025 when people have to refinance at 4-5% rates.

Im buying gold for 6 months.

Sooooooon

Its more this. 7 year cycle and 1 year rest/crash. 2030 is the next one: WHAT IS SHEMITAH: Shemitah is a Hebrew word that literally means ‘release’ and refers to a biblical commandment found in Leviticus chapter 25 that calls for a release of the land from the demands of production (lay fallow) for 1 year out of every 7 years. It is intended to be a Sabbatical year of rest.

Not only for the U.S but for the World.

Yellen will ensure a market melt up

CRE - Commercial Real Estate crisis - coming to a stock market near you in May 2024, most likely!!

nah :)

Ohhh nooooo.... I hope they don't start a war (to push the imminent collapse even further).... Ooppsie, they already did :D

its Tuesday tomorrow🤐☹🤐

If you really think the unemployment rate is low I have a bridge I wanna sell you...those unemployment rate #s are totally cooked with part time and low level jobs...its MUCH higher than they lead on.

Dollar shock triggered by a forced move to Digital dollars even though they are unconstitutional and China has polluted the servers that are required for Digital currency to work.

1. The myth of strong employment: The BLS figures are very misleading. Most of the jobs created were in low paying jobs and part time jobs. Middle class jobs, especially in the tech sector, are increasingly difficult to get. 2. The myth of strong GDP: What are we making? Boeing planes that fall apart and their own technicians won't fly on them? Genetically modified Monsanto agriculture? Unsanitary poultry and beef that a lot of advanced countries refuse to purchase? Both GDP and BLS employment figures are dishonest. Real inflation is also higher than reported. As for producing our own oil, we have to export much of it because our refineries mostly need foreign oil which means that the oil spike doesn't have to be as big as this video claims. Many country's central banks are selling their US debt, dumping dollars, and buying gold. BRICS is passing up the G7 is various metrics and is working on their own payment system independent of SWIFT. The commercial real estate market is tanking, and when current leases expire many companies won't be renewing. That means a lot of banks are going to be insolvent and more underwater. Meanwhile, we just approved $90+ billion military expenditures for Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan which means more debt even though Ukraine and Israel are losing big time. Also, consumer credit card debt is at a high and various types of debt delinquencies like credit card, student loans, auto loans, and others are at a high. So, this video paints too rosy a picture for our economy.