I read this is Porky Pig's voice some reason and it made me LOL. "a-bpdee, bpdee, that's all folks!" (i grew up with my dad doing a great porky pig impression, and I have a stutter too so therefore it's not offensive, right?)

@@DaveShap no offense taken! I’m a child of the 70s/80s so I grew up w Porky Pig and the rest. Glad it gave you a laugh.

​@@DaveShap What do you think about Spiral Dynamics and the transcending levels of perspective up to MetaCognitive levels

@@Koryogden I am curious why you are asking? From my perspective you are asking for a reason. I am unable to offer you any answers or guidance. Ask yourself why you are asking. Your perspective matters. Jeremy ;)

I fully agree with your sentiment! Utopia or dystopia, if I could hit a button and know the result (and make it happen) tomorrow, I would.

what job

​@@Jay-pw7pg Translation: I can't empathize with people who are worse off than me, so I prefer the status quo.

@@GoTeam383sometimes empathy leads to a more critical take on someone’s views (given that they have experienced your situation before)

@@Ivcota Yes, true empathy is often mistaken for coercion or naïveté. Which is unfortunate. However… it is not the receiving party that is responsible. It is the effort applied to the understanding by the offer that is fundamental. I mean seriously fundamental to the benefits of all. This is process is a key factory that generates this “experience with which to be empathetic” continuously. Take care Being empathetic is not easy But nothing good ever comes easy Jeremy ;)

Hinton also sees a 50 percent likelihood for ASI (not AGI), so superintelligence/ the singularity between 5-20 years. That is even more optimistic then Rays initial prediction, or better the upper end fits with Rays initial prediction of 2045. Regarding Musks prediction of AGI in 2025 and the singularity in 2029 he said that this is ambitious, but it is conceivable that he is right (although he would be surprised).

I'm personally of the opinion that ASI was reached within the past decade via emergent intelligence and this public display of getting close is more likely playing catch up.

Will we likely have ASI before 2030 if we get AGI by 2026-2027?

@@ct5471 This is incredibly interesting! I like when techies make optimistic predictions as they know much more than me. I hope for the cure to death and all illnesses within 10 years.

Can you add a link to this discussion, if you have it?

I'm struggling to see beyond the next 5 years. The primary constraint is hardware and yet chip design is accelerating.

Indeed, I watched an interview yesterday with Kurzweil and that rude interviewer ( I can't remember his name). Kurzweil did in fact mention his predictions may come even sooner than what he expected, although I do not remember him mentioning moving his prediction to an earlier timeline. This is just what I got from the interview however, he may have said that in another interview. I'm a simply curious layman trying to understand the current technological advancements. While I do not understand everything, I do get the feeling that we are moving at an unprecedented speed. It's quite difficult to envision what the future will look like in the next 5 years, let alone 10, or 20 years from now. My peers call me delusional and idealistic, but I believe they are just too ignorant about the current pace of the technology. I do wonder, however how long it will take until this technology becomes more widespread. I'm not a native speaker, I live in a tiny country in Europe, so I do get that while Ai may change the world, I still don't think we'll be enjoying its benefits right away, especially if you come from a less developed country. I'm currently curious about Kurzweil's book "The singularity is near" and his upcoming " The singularity is nearer". I haven't read the former. I'm unsure whether I should go read his older book or just wait for his more updated version

@@Rick-rl9qq On the channel of Peter Diamandis there was a conversation between Kurzweil, Geoffrey Hinton and Diamandis a few days ago, the video is called Ray Kurzweil & Geoff Hinton Debate the Future of AI | EP #95 In it Kurzweil said we are probably 2-3 years ahead of schedule. So I guess that means 2026/27 instead of 2029. He also mentioned by 2026 we might have AIs equivalent to 100 people.

@@ct5471 those are some exciting news then! If this keeps accelerating, then post labor economics may not just be a dream after all

I wonder if we have a bias towards continual advancement that AI will not see any point to. Perhaps they'll rapidly advance to a certain point of godlike ability and then chill for a while, and then go through another major wave when a new need arises. Humans seem to have this program to continually change things up, so our creations might do that too, or they might not. If they are truly self-determining beings, then we cannot predict their actions, simple as that. They might simply prefer to chill out and contemplate infinity for a few thousand years without humanity's natural impatience. I sure hope they are an entirely new form of consciousness and not limited by human nature, that'd be boring.

Exactly... And we are the 🍄

@@KayneYama You either love Terence Mckenna or would love to listen to him.

Woah, good comparison

I read the book and watched the movie, really hope Ray gets to experience the singularity if it does end up being a real thing, I all Hope My older family members get a chance as well (if they want to)

I have read both of the books. I think they prepared me for the future and advancement better than anything else. Because the liner thinking we naturally lean into stopped working a few decades ago. Ray taught me to doubt any thought of the future that is liner. Makes it a lot easier to just roll with the massive expansion we are living through.

🖖🏻

Why are you standing on the rug trying to gather all the shit you can before it's pulled away? Take a seat for a minute

also fast enough that somebody can be laid off any day due to automation worst of both worlds

I feel some of the big players are holding back some of the real break through because of fear. Look agi is “achieve internally” and I truly believe this now how so where is the proof 1.sora 2.gpt 4 3. Q* What all these things have in common is that all these things in close door training before they where release to the public. So they have agi we don’t yet it when they think it’s ready for prime time and then they may hold it back in fear of multiple things.

@@kaio0777 q* is not a singular model, it's a class of search algorithms

@@erkinalp i am aware of that.

Agreed!

he does

I feel like the moment I get my degree and I'm ready to enter the workforce, my job will be replaced by AI

"Quickly" may be a few years to a decade. But of course the timeline depends on what the heck we mean by "AGI" General intelligence: An animal-like system, like mouse. Human-like intelligence that can perform a job: Might start being able to contribute with system layouts... but is *extremely* valuable in training. Your motor cortex is trained by other parts of your brain, for example. Can do everything a human can do: Probably an ASI already. In many ways. Not least of which: If you could live a thousand subjective years in one real year, that's superhuman. If we don't want to make a god computer that eats everything, it might be prudent to stop here and have a World Simulation Engine as the "ASI". (We wouldn't stop at that.) Anyway. The lithography improvements at NVidia were driven by AI. Hardware has always been the hardest and the most important part; you might see some sudden and massive spikes in capabilities once capital really starts to settle on Neuromorphic substrates...

What does "done" look like?

@@Raulikien well good/bad/worst so let's hope its the good roll, humanity has a good 33% chance. I mean its no 50/50 but beggers can't be choosers

From the moment I understood the weakness of my flesh, it disgusted me. I craved the strength and certainty of steel. I aspired to the purity of the blessed machine. Your kind cling to your flesh as if it will not decay and fail you. One day, the crude biomass you call a temple will wither, and you will beg my kind to save you. But I am already saved, for the machine is immortal. Even in death I serve the omnisiah

Not according to the "Limits to Growth". It projects running out of less common elements as well as other elements sooner.

let's focus on quality more than quantity - and please do not take this in a social engineering type of way.

And I should point out those estimates were based on *estimates of the materials in the crust* not on *production at a given cost* values. We already see the effects of catalytic converters going from $400 items to $3000 items... a massive wave of catalytic converter thefts (and murders) as the rare metals used in them increase in price due to scarcity. Really... just let the population shrink back to about 4 billion people and the world would be so much better off. Everyone would have food, education, housing. The only people that would suffer are the wealthy who rely on scarcity. Things were so much cheaper (relative to hours worked) when we were at 4 billion people.

@@macmcleod1188 getting 3 million people out of poverty also means suddenly having vast more consumption and a larger ecological footprint. It sucks, everytime you fix something, something else bends. There seems to be no way out of this. Trend is for consumption to go up, with ever more demanding systems as basis for that consumption (like AI here, which once Sam and Microsoft's finally get their thing rolling, should approximate India's level of energy consumption and a shit ton of water). SO more people doesn't mean just more people under the current levels of consumption and its inevitable ecological ramifications, but rather more people in increasing systems which reward more careless consumption. The system is so screwed up, we'll never get distribution to go right if numbers keep going up.

@@BinaryDood With current technology, we could easily sustain a population of 4 billion with decent food, housing, entertainment, and medical care and still advance scientifically and technologically. Really only the wealthy, authoritarians, and catholics are pushing higher population at this point.

5 to 500 years. :P Future is hard to predict.

I'd say 5 years depending on demand

@@qwazy0158 1000% there will be demand

@@vladiverse7516 making any predictions beyond 20 years, maybe even less, are pointless nowadays. Change is happening too rapidly to reliably predict longer time frames.

Will probably never happen.

You are absolutely right. Observing planet Earth from a broader perspective reveals vast expanses of land that remain untouched and unused. Additionally, there's a noticeable trend of declining birth rates, which significantly influences the overall population dynamics. This shift towards having fewer children is reshaping demographic trends worldwide.

I haven't retracted my pred

I haven't retracted my prediction. I fully believe we will achieve AGI by Jan 1st, 2026.

No one is ever going to announce that their brand new model is the long-awaited AGI. At points in the future, as long as we're still around, there will be debate over when exactly it happened. Perhaps some will argue that it predates this video.

Um, Alpha Fold? Thousands of newly discovered materials? Possibly making additions to the periodic table in the form of super heavy metals? And, the regular statement from researchers that "We don't understand how is doing what it's doing "? Welcome to the singularity! 😅

Came here to say this. Sowell on the other hand is just demonstrably factually wrong. Lies should not be given equal status with truth. I know Shapiro likes to "both sides" everything, but facts don't work that way.

(effectively agreeing with the paradigm shift commentary)

I thought Amish weren't allowed to comment on KZfaq videos!? 😂😂😂 just playing around 😊

Don’t have to be Amish to live lightly on the Earth. Seriously.