chill out moneyball

Another thing as well. Since the o-line is more responsible for ground gains, it just makes sense to invest more in the o-line because you will also probably have better pass protection as well.

For full transparency, I began working on the research for this video on 7/28/2023. On 8/5/2023, the day before I posted this video, Brett Kollman released his RB video offering a solution to the problem. Brett is an awesome creator and is actually the first ever football youtuber I ever watched, increasing my love for the game, so I highly recommend you check out his video as well, which I've linked in the description. I still believe there is value in watching this video because I go a bit more in-depth on the problem itself, whereas Brett offers a real tangible solution. Either way, I just wanted to make sure no one thought I was copying Brett or was trying to capitalize on posting a similar video within a short time frame, it unfortunately just happened like that. Anyways, I hope you enjoy both videos!

This is an excellent analysis!! I’m a former NFL RB and was both a benefactor and victim of the way RB’s are treated in the league. You covered it all. 👍🏾👊🏾

There's a large amount of risk avoidance involved. RBs have tons of injuries. By having 3 guys on your roster for the price of 1 top guy, you protect yourself better from injuries in the sense that you don't have as much drop-off.

Part of the solution is paying rookie RBs more. They are expected to have a short career, so killing yourself for less than a million might not be worth it

To me, the most important use of an efficient rushing game is to set up an efficient passing game. The stats take these plays and their outcomes in a vacuum, when in reality, they are largely determined by the preceding plays. The job of the offense is to keep the defense guessing. It’s like a feint in boxing. They won’t bite on the feint unless you’ve already landed that blow. You need an effective rushing attack to open up the passing game. It’s why Mahomes is so good. As the play develops he keeps the defense guessing wether he still has an open man or if he’s going to break for a rush. If you have Mahomes, you can get away with not investing too heavily into running backs. The other 31 teams do not have that luxury.

One thing to consider...all yards are not equal. Instead of yards, I wonder if first downs or even the % of yards gained towards a first down changes the value of the run game. The thought here being one of two ways that offense fails is by not gaining a first down (the other being turnovers).

I think every high school RB, parent of RB and coach needs to see this. One way to make the market respect compensation expectations of talent is to cut out supply. Become a TE or defensive player kids. If you insist on being an RB, you can enjoy a lot of adoration from college fans, a sweet NIL deal and a free ride through college, then go do something else or become a college football commentator or a local celebrity. Save yourself from the CTE and being lowballed in a league that will chew you up and spit you out.

This video is fucking amazing. You are the only football commentator I have seen so far use advanced statistical analysis to support his points. The overall community is super behind other sports which have switched to other stats (like FG% to TS%) while we still use the same basic inaccurate stats from decades ago. Thank you for helping get us caught up.

I've said it before - I feel so bad for kids growing up as running backs right now. You outlined the issues with paying a running back perfectly. It would be nice to see RB rookie contracts a shorter length or franchise tags abolished for them.

Just an idea that might nuance your analysis. Pure yards gained is not always the metric that’s most important to a football team. If it’s third and one, gaining one yard is critically important, in a way that skews the importance of yards so that the first yard is more important than any subsequent yards that the team might pick up on that play. With that being said, it might be interesting look at the pay of an RB vs their ability to consistently convert on 3rd and 4th down plays. I could imagine that the RB of today, rather than being expected to make big yards, might have a different role in keeping drives alive by consistently gaining short yardage. I think your overall argument obviously still stands, and by looking at stats in team success vs rb salary, you’ve kinda already addressed my point; however, some stat on converting downs and keeping drives alive might make an argument value of an RB (and maybe even a highly skilled one vs an average player) in a game that is increasingly dominated by passing which is by nature, more all or nothing (completed pass vs incomplete pass) on individual downs. Just a thought!

Just subbed, probably the best way anyone has explained whole rb situation. Great video looking forward to watching more

Love the video. Gotta respect a guy who uses numbers and facts to look at the NFL for what it is, a ruthless multimillion dollar business but to summarize the video in an easier way is just to say it doesn't sense or cents to pay the running back like other positions.

Basically the effort paradox in working, the hardest workers don’t always make the most money

This channel deserves more subscribers. Insanely thorough data analysis.

Didn’t realize how small your channel was till you mentioned it. You’re gonna blow up brother this was a crazy good video!

I think another big part is simply that the physical requirements for being a Running Back are not as strict as other positions. The average American male is slightly over 5'9". That is too short to play most nfl positions. You cant be a 5'9 linebacker or offensive tackle, but its a perfect height for a RB who can benefit from the lower center of gravity. Which means there are just a lot more dudes who have the chance to become NFL level running backs meaning the supply gets higher and the pay goes down.

I just wanna say this is an amazing video. Very impressed with the analysis man. Good work

It sure if this was mentioned as I don’t read through comments but, the rushing game’s importance isn’t just in yardage, it is also in time of possession and giving your defense a chance to rest. Your defense on average will play better when a team has a rushing attack that can keep the offense on the field for a longer amount of time. All in all though a fair assessment of the RB position today

This is the best video on all of KZfaq on the topic. I was expecting you to have half a million subs...top quality work man. Keep it up!

Way too little subs, LOVE THE WORK PUT INTO THIS VID, felt like a class and there was a test at the end

What makes RBs value is not just their running ability, it is their pass blocking ability and their pass catching ability. This why we see RBs like CMC, Ekeler, Pollard, and more who can catch, have a much larger impact than just normal ball carriers. I fully believe in a 2rb set, 1 hard runner and 1 pass catching, like GB, LAC, DET, NE, and more.

Watched the whole vid before you said you only had a little over 100 subscribers. Amazing video. Obvious amounts of effort and time put into it. I would’ve guessed you had well over 75k subs at the least.

i have so much to say on this. the short of it is the back is a necessary part of the team. some do deserve to make money, some don't. some stat cruncher came up with a way to show these guys don't need to be paid well. if the qb passes all the time the game becomes boring. you cant put a stat on the unknown results of what will happen once the ball is hiked. i think eventually the game will become 1 dimensional if these guys aren't fairly compensated. i have so much more i want to say but the wife says its my bed time. and at 60 my fingers get cramped typing a lot....another good video BTW.

great video. I watched the whole thing and raised my eyebrows in surprise when you said you only had 100 subs at the end.

Great vid. Surprised this was a low sub account, better research quality than a lot of bigger ones.

I’m gonna be doing a study on something similar so this was a good listen and helped me think of more variables to add to my regression. Thank you man!

As a casual fan who's about a hundred plays of running backs gaining one or two yards and only a tiny handful where they got more. Im glad you finally came to this conclusion

Team learned that a 7th round RB on a rookie contract running behind an elite O-Line is a better use of limited money than a star RB running behind 7th round pick O-Linemen.

Offensive line is certainly an important factor. The thing that isn't talked about enough is when these teams think they can plug any dude in after letting a RB walk and end up with a 3.6ypc rookie and have an irrelevant running game with a back who can't block or catch

I wonder how the league would be impacted if rookie RB contracts were shortened to 1 year, forcing teams to sign new contracts with backs quicker

Great video. I grew up in the era of Marshall Faulk. I was raised on running backs lol. It's weird how the position just doesn't work in the NFL anymore.

still listening. so far my counterpoints (don't necessarily disagree totally) are: 1: football isn't a math game. it's extremely emotional and physical. a great or terrible running game totally changes the tone of the game and has a big impact on the fatigue of the opposing players 2: there are situations where running the ball is objectively better regardless of overall effeciency 3: offenses need balance. we'll see what happens if someone decides to just throw on every play in the nfl 4: a lot of the Super Bowl winning teams had rbs that played well. Pacheco was really good last year and holding the Eagles' RBs down was key for KC. flip that and Philly almost certainly wins Akers' inability to get anything going seriously hampered the Rams' offense Fournette was bruising and efficient Damien Williams dramatically outperformed Mostert. swap that and the Niners win. actually the inability to run was a huge deal in that game since they had a double digit lead in the 4th i think we've come back around to underestimating the impact running backs have on football

Your deep dive analysis was great man. Glad your channel growing

This is so well done props

So Nick Chubb and Jonathan Taylor are the only backs worth their money on rushing stats. McCaffery probably adds enough value in the pass game to compensate

How good was this vid?! Wow. Just subbed from New Zealand. Coverage of the NFL here is limited, so having well-researched and quality videos like this is unbelievably amazing. Love your work mate

I get why it’s a dying position but it still sucks to see when I’ve always been a runningback/fullback growing up and been a fan of elite running backs😢

There is one thing that rules football. Points. Put points on the board and keep points off. The fact that an average passing game is more productive than a great running game, it is far easier to move the ball and score throwing than rushing. One thing that pads the rushing stats, teams that are winning, run more to burn clock. Teams that are losing, throw more to try and score quickly and save clock. That is the point where slowing down the game is a winning strategy. So any stat in the 4th quarter will depend more on the score than on what is actually important to get a lead in the first place. Production matters and running helps the offense in being productive. The short yardage first downs and keeping the D off balance. However, if a D focuses on the pass, they will not have great run stopping stats, but they will have the one stat that matters. Points. It isn’t that RBs and the running game aren’t important. It is that passing is so much more important.

Great work breaking down the reasoning. I was hoping you would touch on a few things but I didn't really catch it, so maybe we talk here about it. As a mechanic, or artist or anything, there is always that one tool that is way too expensive for how much you use it, but you absolutely can't do without it, and I am pretty sure this is kind of a factor in when they should pay for someone. Without a rungame, teams commit to the pass and I am sure that pulls down averages for that too. One of the things you can tell when a team is without is good pass blocking running backs. You can also tame blitzes with dump offs and screens originated from the back position. Then most importantly ball security. This ties into the other thing, an ability to disguise a play action run and or handle snaps properly, even with intense pressure. It doesn't allow teams to go two high considering 1 or the other will be in run support or opens up getting deep. A lot of your examples were great, but also a lot of them came from San Fran. Even though they have a wealth of backs, like enough to just send them all over the league to starting positions, they still paid very well for McCaffery because of his elite abilities. The colts are absolute garbage and some of these other teams are too, which again is pointing back to the original points, that while it might not translate into overall success, just the presence alone dictates gameplans. This is especially true in the red zone, where little gains mean a whole lot more. Browns are garbo, and the fact they had to let chub do that much is reflecting more on poor team overall ability rather than anything. We are in a ball control era. People don't want huge gain plays. They want to grind away at the clock to win time of possession. They want to have the tools to move the chains in tight situations. I don't know what to call the cowboys, I mean they dominate regular seasons, but it don't add up to much when it really matters which might indicate that pollard isn't as cracked as his numbers show. Bengals weren't as effective without Mixon being effective. Point is I think the better teams right now paid their guys and it will lead to further effectiveness. Chiefs are a great example, like off a super bowl win with Williams, they drafted O'laire and while he hasn't panned out exactly, the committee approach has. They need to pay them just enough, and I think that is probably more of what is going on than seeing them as expendable. Taylor wanted way too much from a really bad team.

Awesome video! I wonder if we'll ever see another running back with the longevity of Adrian Peterson or Frank Gore. I also wonder if any current running backs will end up being given Hall of Fame consideration (McCaffrey, Chubb, and Henry would be on a short list in my estimation). Another thing that I think decreases running backs' value is the rise of the dual-threat quarterback, guys like Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, Kyler Murray, or Justin Fields who can easily pick up yards with their legs without handing the ball off.

Excellent analysis and discussion on this topic, you definitely deserve more subscribers. Hopefully the algorithm brings more your way like it did me

Excellent video... earned my subscription

Great video man! Keep up the good work, subscribed

I wonder if this cycle will continue. For example, let’s say running backs become less and less utilised, therefore the passing game will be a lot more prominent. To combat this, teams will draft players with the skill set to purely combat pure passing situations (like Deion Sanders - amazing in coverage but tackling left room to be desired). Then eventually a player will come around and absolutely dominate because the defenders they are going up against just aren’t built to stop the run. Purely sceptical and most likely won’t happen but just a thought.

Hey! I just discovered your channel! Keep up the good work. Your heart (and brain) is in a good place,just keep working on improving the video's quality and you'll get there! Best of luck

You say that teams run more when winning, which is true. However, the ability to successfully run helps put games away and run out the clock. Having a good running game is also what makes play action work.

I think coaches haven’t realized there’s a difference between replaceable rbs The fact that Aaron Jones is getting signed a deal but Saquon isn’t is completely absurd.

this is a good video and lays out the reason why they aren't getting paid. I watch some rich eisen and other casual analysts they dont really understand whats going on so I wish they would watch a video like this.

Great video my man, in line with what I've been seeing for a while now. Elite RBs are going to be a thing of the past in the next decade

Great high quality vid bro

Awesome video man, great work

The video was great this comment is for interaction because you def deserve more subs

Solid video, you obviously put a ton of work into it. Keep it up!

Same conclusion I came to after digging into this, you not only hit on everything but provided even better data. Great job!

You implied you are a lawyer. I liked your analysis at the end. I do echo that other guys sentiment that having an elite running game opens up the passing game. If defenses are worried about an explosive back, they will push the box more and open up the receivers. San Francisco is a good example of that IMO.

Here when you have 600 subs. Because you’re about to blow up

Very impressive work. Easy subscribe for the thorough research and great display of it. Can’t wait to watch the page grow and see what content you’ll put out next!

I do think that its a cycle. And its all about supply and demand. Running backs are valuable->they get paid a lot of money->a lot of people choose to play running back->the position becomes less valuable because there are so many people playing the position->running backs stop getting paid->less people choose to play that position->then the position becomes valuable again bc of the scarcity of running backs available and so on and so forth

Great video man. You definitely put in a lot of work. Hope your channel grows fast brotha

I’d love to see RBs stats in the passing game. Receiving yards out of the back field, RBs that line up as a receiver and passing plays when RBs block. Also idk how to do stats for it but play action plays maybe resulting in more yards if the defense bites on the run. Great video overall though!

I was floored when you said you only had 100 followers man…this video is so well thought out and edited. Add me to the sub list because I love content like this!

Didnt realize you were in the legal field! Im in law school now but my background is in stats. Loved this breakdown!

Little late and I know it would take weeeeks, maybe offseason or something like that, but finding a way to analyze each player like this and comparing how paying each position correlates to success would be awesome. Anyways, awesome video.

Great video jumbo package man

You would think that the "running back by committee" approach would get really popular in the next few years. Three (maybe even four) RBs, none of whom get more than say 150 carries per year. Not just one featured back who, like Jumbo mentioned, if he was lost it would derail the whole season. Fewer touches, lowered chance of getting injured, trained to excel at pass blocking, good at being checkdown options. Less chance of getting into the "rhythm" of the game (but that's probably a really tough thing to quantify), but a coach could ride a guy who's gashing the defense until he rotates the next guys in. I think the running game still has value. It's a means of advancing the ball, and totally cutting that out of your game plan makes a team predictable. But it doesn't have as much value as it used to. It's a position that used to generate stars, but is heading toward a position that doesn't gain much respect. Look at the moves to incorporate WRs into the running game (Deebo Samuel and Cordarelle Patterson). How long until we see WRs with upwards of 75 carries in a season?

Fascinating video. Subscribed

Liked and subscribed for the efforts put forth to create this content.

the best part of running is that it distracts from passing

Love the analysis. One thing i didnt see you address when comparing the money and stats was the receiving impact some of the RBs have. Derrick Henry would fit this analysis perfectly because he doesn't contribute much in the passing game. However, Jonathan Taylor and Christian McCaffrey are very good receivers as well as RBs. All of Henry's salary is being used for rushing. Only part of Taylor's and McCaffrey's salaries are being used for rushing. You addressed the 4 areas RBs contribute, but allocated all of their salary to 1 area. Probably need to do something like 'Salary*Rushing attemtps/total snaps on field' to figure out what part of the RBs salary is being used for rushing. I dont think this will change your overall conclusion, but i think it will show the top RBs aren't as inefficient money-wise as your analysis shows, with the exception of Henry.

It would be interesting to see a similar breakdown of a time in the NFL when RBs were valued the highest, and an argument for why they were worth the money.

Very methodical, and concise, insightful video , thanks

Great video. Would’ve liked to see an analysis on running back touchdown numbers compared to each other. Maybe they provide secret value there?

Good job. I hope this helps with the algorithm

Great video analysis and IMO I believe you explained exactly how the supply and demand works in the nfl this is why rbs are paid so low low demand

This is too good of a video for you to only have 900 subs

Franchises undervalue valuable running backs. The running game is still very important in Football, but teams won't act like it. Paying bank for an Elite Running back IS worth it.

love this video man keep it up

While I value your opinion, respect your research and understand that metrics matter, I severely disagree on my next point… a good running back provides intangibles that most of the average vans don’t see or even understand. The threat of a breakaway running back or just a consistent 4 to 7 yards on any given play can kill the wheel of a defence and coaching staff. There is so much more besides just those points.

Your channel has grown. I'm subbing. Hope you get to 1000 soon. As for the video, I have had a philosophy since I started watching football more analytically, offensive line is the most important position in all of football. Both running backs and quarterbacks are heavily, HEAVILY affected by good offensive line play. You can make a bum look like a god behind the Eagles current o-line. I also have a hot take, I believe that a fullback Renaissance is coming. Big brusing backs that can get dirty for a yard or two, and pass protect. Fullbacks being the 3 down back, while having a shifty rb with hands as your 3rd and long guy only makes sense. I'm ready for it to happen.

Great video, A thought about some of the RYOE/ATT discussion is usage in the context of the offense, especially for teams without top ~5 qbs I wonder how much elite backs improve overall offensive efficiency through option plays and whatnot if they change up the defensive style. like the raw difference doesn't look very good, and I'm not a huge football stats guy so idk if there's a good statistic to measure this like adjusted bpm in basketball, but a strong back has the potential to improve the offense even when he's not rushing. I think something like this would also shore up another important point about this which is opportunity cost, because assuming teams mostly pay their offense an approximately similar amount if they aren't paying their back they likely have better players in other positions which I think is really the crux of the debate, how valuable is moving the money to someone else (non qb ofc). Really interesting video regardless!

Super interesting. Footballinomics great stuff. Lower impact, lower variation across skill range, lower comp

How are you such a small chanel whaaaat. Subscribed keep it up bro

Sounds like RB rookie salary should be a sliding salary based on the full price of the franchise tag for pick 1, and like 20% for mr irrelevant. They should be the second highest paid position on their rookie contract.

Great video. I think one of the core purposes of running the ball is to setup the passing game which doesn’t seem much evaluated here. It seems it would be equally ineffective if teams came out and never ran the ball. There’s likely some optimal number of runs per pass metric that could be discovered.

I wish the analysis of RB value get deeper.. Because it's clear to me that although the statistics are saying "don't pay RB", that's not what eye test shows us.. I know that we risk bending statistics to RB's favor, but it would be nice to try to test some hypothesis like "How much a good running game impacts the passing game? How much value RBs impact that? " "Are rushing yards and passing yards equally valued? Or there're a bunch of 1-yd TDs? I think ideally the protection equipment and the rules evolve for them to last longer, and thus make more sense to invest long-term too.

Great video man

This was awesome. If I were a GM, I could get a Darren Sproles type, and two pass-blocking full backs, mix a bunch of packages for them, pay less than $10 mil for all three of them, and get 95% of one elite RB.

I think two things need to happen in order to revitalize the value of the position: 1: Improve their armor. Players have been using the same kit for decades. Surely there's technology available to reinforce knees and ankles, even if it slows the player down slightly. 2: Embrace two-way play. Edge Rusher is the most sought-after position on the defense. Runningbacks have many of the traits necessary to being a successful DE or OLB. Even if it's just rotational, being able to add to the defense's most difficult position to fill will go a long way.

This was a very interesting breakdown of why passing is more efficient. I wonder if you could do an analysis to determine the best ratio of run-to-pass? In other words, the data shows that passing is generally more efficient, but the value in running (aside from gaining yards) is that it 1) keeps the clock running, thereby decreasing the opponent's # of offensive plays, 2) it sets up the passing game for success by tempering the defense's expectations, and 3) is *perhaps* more efficient in pivotal situations such as 4th & short or goal line. To that end, what is the ideal % of run/pass plays in any given game plan?

New England is the perfect example. They had almost never pay high for RB, other teams started catching on and slowly fading out high paying star runningback.

This is an incredibly solid and non partial examination of the rb position. You've earned a like and a sub. Looking forward to hearing your research on other videos!

you did a great job with this

when he says slightly over a hunnid subs and I'm like damn this was exactly the thing I like to watch found my niche youtuber

Very fascinating video

I knew something was off when Saquon’s negotiations were slowing down. Seeing Jones get super paid without Saquon was wild

The problem with only using stats without looking into game tape and game situations is that the numbers make it seem like the best offense will only pass 100% of the time, when intuitively this does not make sense. The benefits of a good running back are providing balance to the offense, provide lower chance of turning the ball over, and (possibly) higher chance of success in short yardage situations. Also, the salary numbers on yards/attempt included guys like Ekeler who are huge for their teams passing games as well.

Great video! subscribed

great vid! you deserve more subs!