Enjoy the video.

Every time I watch your videos, I feel a little smarter about a subject I knew nearly nothing about. I appreciate the lessons, thank you.

Just wonder about how ASML saying that they weren't going to get all the machines out they promised until 2024.

I love that the volume is so much louder (more normal) in recent videos. Not a fan of ASMR narration. The content is outstanding as usual.

I've just started following Asianometry (the name threw me off when I first ran across it), and I've watched about a dozen of the videos. I find John's descriptions and explanations very useful and his style very approachable. Thanks, John.

An episode about RISC-V would be interesting.

Hey, I loved your shoe video! Keep doing what you find interesting: your audience will get catch up over time. Think of the semiconductor videos as the gateway into broader economics, manufacturing, and supply-chain videos. Never thought I’d be fascinated by supply-chains (for example), but here we are. 😄

Thanks. BTW the shoe manufacturing episode was enlightening. Keeps things fresh :)

Here is my obligatory yell at you on the comments. Good update. I feel I’ll have to rewatch as it was late at night for first viewing. Love your style and research you put into all your topics. Cheers!

Ev market is growing with Logic and dRam. It takes over 100 GB of Dram per EV. Seems like everything (Logic/Dram) is increasing with faster broadband. Great video !

There is a possibility that the extra logic capacity could be taken up by 3D stacking. If there's a need to grow vertically, then your area requirement scales with the number of layers. So this may be the perfect time to be adding logic capacity. And if it's cheap enough, the extra capacity could always be taken up by SRAM, like AMD's V-Cache (again, 3D stacking though).

The most knowledgeable and informed deer I know of in the semiconductor industry.

Always look forward to your videos and commentary. Keep up your fine work! 😃

Nice video - AWS grew 36.5% YoY per their q1-2022 report. MS Azure grew 46%, and Google Cloud revenue grew 43.8% YOY. Small slowdown for each all things considered, and still enviable growth rates given how most other growth stocks and even some big tech are getting slammed. The big cloud providers should provide good business for some time it seems? (And in terms of marketshare: "According to Canalys, in the fourth quarter of 2021, AWS represented 33% of the cloud infrastructure market, Azure held 22%, while just 9% of cloud spending was on GCP.")

Terrific and very honest humour in the opening! And personally I'm a big fan of your narration style.

I regularly watch ur videos, u provide great insight, keep up the good work man 😃

You had put so much soul into the shoe video! It was interesting and insightful.

I'm yelling at you now for how amazing your content is!

Another amazing episode. Thank you for sharing!

Hi Asianometry I'm always really impressed when you make a video about a topic that is not your field. In the spirit of teaching a man how to fish, how do you approach new topics, research them and create a knowledge base for yourself so quickly? Maybe an idea for a video?

Its not just cloud demand. Automation, edge computing and electrification of transportation, smart medicine, smart and connected housing would provide extremely strong demands in the next coming decades.

Its always enjoyable to see and hear some sanity in this crazy mixed up world. Thank you.

I really loved your Taiwan making shoes episode!

Great insight! Tks John

i appreciate you sharing your knowledge, thank you.

Thanks for the analysis, I am here to say thanks, not yelling at you. TSMC provided good guidance for the remaining of 2022. Next year onwards will be more uncertain, I don't think anyone can see that far away.

Long time viewer and also a big fan of the semi ecosystem. Great video, but I think the one major flaw in your argument is that you argued with the assumption that datacenter growth only received a major boost because of COVID. If you look at the decade prior to COVID, datacenters was the primary growth driver for Amazon, Google, and Microsoft from the onset. If you look at the growth rates from COVID and also compare it to pre COVID, the growth rates have been consistently 30-60% (depending if you're talking about AWS/Azure/GC) for nearly a decade. It COULD slow down coming out of pandemic, but there's no historical evidence that the pandemic even affected it's original trajectory.

Great video, I also liked the Taiwan shoe making video. Also love, but don't fight the haters, as it boosts engagement which is good for the algorithm.

I really liked the shoe video! I hope it came across in the comments there as well, but I always find it so fascinating when so much of an industry is quietly dominated by one dedicated group that found a niche decades ago and exploited the hell out of it.

No yelling from me. You did quite a good job again.

Thanks for the quality content.

Very good. I am subscribing

the show vidoe was interesting to me, i watch all of your video because of how thoroughly you go into topics and economic behind them, you nade me realise not all government actions are automatically bad

2 months after this video the world is bracing for a recession, a huuuuge crypto bust, and a super glut of gpu's. Man, the world changes so fast that I'm witnessing things at a pace that I never could imagine.

There's a tidal flood of demand for SSDs being barely held back by price. (For example: some desktop computers are still being sold with 1TB hdds, just waiting for the price of SSDs to reach a tipping point.) Couldn't any glut of memory production capacity be applied to that latent demand for SSDs? (It's NAND vs. DRAM, but still.)

Thanks for being brave enough to share your opinion.

Electronics engineer since 2006, seen a few cycles and they all kick my butt

You should do these annually and honestly compare predictions with reality, not in an "I told you so" or "oops, missed that one" kind of way but to fill in the gaps where things diverged.

Aaaw, I loved the shoe video!

Fiiiine. I’ll watch the shoe one 👟 👀

if u can, do a video on analog computing / RRAM / artificial synapse / analog floating gate transistors / etc hehe thanks

Love your channel and watch all your vids. Not sure I agree with your take on Cloud being due to level off - Cloud infrastructure is different to SaaS companies like Netflix that offer services using Cloud. Use of cloud by total addressable market is still astronomically low - most IT is still run more expensive and less efficient on-prem, so unlike mobile, Cloud is a long way from saturation, or even growth leveling out - I think this is why so many players still think it is not too late to get into it (IBM, Oracle, etc). Not saying it will be the hottest or most rapid growing driver for semiconductors but hard to see that growth dropping off for a while. Still, that is also a prediction so... :)

I recently saw that before the last memory crash, the cap ex of memory to logic was 60 to 30. Due to consolidation and massive Logic cap ex this trend is now exactly reversed with logic spending 60% of cap ex and memory 30. Could that not make Memory less vulnerable than logic to a supply glut?

I loved the Taiwan shoe reading, thank you for that

Not only is the cloud growing, but it will all have to be rebuilt.

Just wanted to say that you've got a shout out in the Aquired podcast, on their latest episode about NVIDIA

I liked your shoe episode -unfortunate that it didn't do so well.

An interesting video would be a follow the products from a fab that produced for a long time. E.g. what is produced on them after the leading edge moved somewhere else, and what is produced at the end of the fabs life.

Semiconductors is the only human endeavor to suffer a surplus of logic. On the other hand, humanity has constant glut of reminiscence, nostalgia and other cheap error prone memory. ;-)

I like the way he say DRAM. He should have patented it.

great video

LOL ~ Thank you for your work. I'm not about to yell at you.

DRAMMM a semiconductor video!

I loved the shoe vid!

Please cover what a full scale Taiwan invasion would mean for semiconductor manufacturing and R&D.

What I always thought was the driver in new production in the USA and the EU was the possible reality that China would invade Taiwan and their ability to supply the West was going to be hijacked or destroyed. That an China as a supplier would be a no go. Kinda like having 2 bathrooms in a 3 bedroom house. It might not be needed but sure is a benefit to have one extra.

Consider Apple silicon integrating "unified" memory on the SOC, shipping millions of devices that can't expand dram throughout the life of the product. And they are not looking back. Most likely, this design will become the norm for laptops and a lot of desktops even outside of Apple.

Many reasons to believe you, yet few to doubt your reasoning. I don't honestly understand where the data center growth is coming from, unless it is emerging markets. I would expect replacement value in current cloud systems in the USA at any rate would not be many more times the cost, since compute density is also ever increasing.

I love ur content

Hi, can I ask that you to pronounce DRAM as Dee-RAM rather than Dra-am? I'm a DRAM guy, and no one pronounces it as Dra-am. Thanks

Please do a video on the economics of food production and supply.

30 years ago semiconductor growth was driven by the personal computer, more recently it has been driven by the smartphone, I think the next massive sector will be automotive. Electric cars probably have 10 times the silicon content as do conventional ICE cars thanks to everything which is required for power management, charging and so on. Most of these functions are not neccessarily in need of the bleeding edge lithographic technologies, but they do eat up a lot of wafer area. That 26% recent growth in automotive is just a preview of things to come. Electric cars are still a very small percentage of the automotive market, but they are highly likely to get to at least 50% market share over the next five to ten years. Another profitable growth market (though primarily for US and European fabs) is going to be military spending. The volume isn't huge, but the profitability can be astonishing. Military and aerospace markets provide a massive portion of the early semiconductor industry's revenue and investment capital. Keep up the great work!

Another good video and no, I'm not to criticize you because there is no visible semibust. Your videos are Very Informative and Well researched so there is really nothing to criticize. Your opinion/conclusion is yours and your are entitled to it based on the data you had at that time, and that's end of conversion. But I would like to add that there is another factor that will impact Specially the Big data multinationals ... CPU increased Efficiency ... or better Computing Density ... Most of these company can replace their Servers from old say Intel E5 Xeon series generations to much more Powerful AMD Epyc Server line ... We tend to forget that there was indeed a jump in core-count And IPC in the last 4 years all lead by AMD in this case (no this is not a fanboy headsup ok ... ) Also servers tend to be replaced Less often then other hardware, with cycles of 5-6 years if not more ... therefore the situation we have right is curious,. .. Once those quad-core/sic-core double CPU E5 series Xeons are replaced companies will experience a Huge jump on Computing power ... Making their previous operated Data Centres cope with a Lot more web-centric activity. This means that if they upgrade their Servers to say AMD ..remember AMD is clearly Delaying top of the line high-Cache CPU's in order to make those top silicon wafer to ... the Server market (Epyc/Theadripper) ... This means that a Much smaller number of servers will do the same work that previous generation E5 type of servers would do. Meaning ... Less top of the line Server CPU's are needed to compensate the increase in web-centric activity ... If they replace only a small portion of legacy systems the increases in capacity will be huge unlike in previous generations ... let's face it Intel was sleeping on the wheel for about 8 years straight ... And that is one argument that could also impact all of this "future demand" negatively.

How much of the build-out is companies repositioning their fabrication to shorten supply chain and improve security of supply i.e. onshoring? Will the overseas plants that are left behind be able to repurpose themselves to non logic/ memory areas or will they be removed from the market as they lack orders?

2009 silicon bust you say? We need video on that!

The human soul is combined of chaos and cosmos. Digital is on or off. Life is actually analog. Let that sink in.

Wish I had watched your video a year ago =p

Enjoyable video.

2:52 Interesting that 2019 was also "the best time to start PC gaming" as it was also this year when Techtuber videos exploded in popularity (LTT, J2C, GN, HUB, etc.). So when the suits are sad for all the revenue losses, consumers like us rejoice for all the cheap hardware. I don't think video cards are supposed to be as cheap as the original SRP of the current RTX lineup.

The data center is impacted, but new edge compute

How do you think the progress in AI will influence the demand for chips?

I enjoyed the shoe show!

idea: make a video about the mask writing process and ecosystem. Recently there was a leap forward with the multibeam writing technology. I'm sure you could wrap it all up in a nice video.

How come almost all big company's stocks are dropping by quite a lot if what you're saying here is the case? I can't find a singular big high-tech company that didn't drop tens of percentages in the past few months-years.

That moment you said demand for gaming hardware I knew something is off, look at how the crypto situation have been...

The enterprise move to the cloud will certainly continue, BUT in about 3 years there won't be any onprem servers left to move there. A few very big competitors that will either collude or compete strongly on price.

How many old fabs are going to be retired or converted and are now being counted as new capacity?

Metaverse will be an interesting sector to watch out for in the coming years. The headsets need high performance mobile chips but with 5g streaming of cloud rendering we're bound to see some unorthodox demand on the chip market.

I too really enjoyed the Taiwan shoes video. Don't know why it didn't do well. :/

The answer can be found in the % of different types of traffic in the internet.

Cloud will keep having to be updated as ai and work loads increase. I have no worries

In the pie charts of TSMC’s revenue, is DCE Desktop Computer Equipment?

the "bust" will be quite slow and gradual though..

What is the image at 5:00?

Depending on just how much of a factor machine learning plays, I wouldn't be too surprised if it floats memory for a while. There are a bunch of models now that don't run or don't run well with less than 16GB of VRAM. Some NLP models demand far more, requiring cards like the Nvidia a100's 40GB of VRAM just to load the weights. I'm nowhere close to being an expert in any of that; just stuck feeling like a dingus around people who are, but just as a person who interacts with automated systems, I can see huge potential in advanced natural language processing. If Google "knew" what you were asking for while searching, it may yield better results, for instance. That's perhaps a bad example, as Google is currently clearly more interested in showing you what it wants you to find rather than what you're looking for, but they might have a lot to work with if they ever pivot back. And if they don't, there's other problems like image recognition that are similarly RAM-hungry. If we ever get self-driving cars that aren't marketing fluff and anyone can buy, they might do a lot of local image processing. The second models like we currently have find their way out of being unknown to most, a novelty or hobby for some and research for others, I'm guessing it'll set a new floor for memory demand. And just in case I need to restate it, I'm purely a voice in the peanut gallery and no one should put their marbles behind a random KZfaq comment.

I don't think the point is regarding chip supply bust or shortage. It is about profitability. I would definitely buy a 3090 ti if it was 500$ or less. The real cost of such chip is like around 300-400$ or less disregarding the R&D cost. Do the chip companies want to sell at this price? That is the question. Also if the likes of TSMC want to keep price of 5nm and 3nm sufficiently low. That's the real question. I don't see in any way how there can be surplus of 3 or 5 or 7 nm nodes. That is unfathomable as there is demand for high performance always.

Do you know how the possible bust will affect the big chip companies or their stocks?

The big question is when/if China is taking the warpath and attack Taiwan. It could also disturb the production in South Korea that is close to China. So that would cause a huge disruption in semiconducting fabrication.

Why are some of the fabs colored in Mondrian designs?

lov u bruv

IDK, But Apple just pushed my New MBP back for the THIRD TIME!! June 23rd now....

Semi conductors have been kind of removed from the boom bust cycle because governments view them as a strategic industry that need to be subsidized.

Today Adafruit release a video on chip shortage in which they say they haven't received the order of 8000 ATSAMD51 they give in 2021-07-07 and if you give order today you will receive in 03-May-2023 direct from Microchip and Digikey do not allow backorder.

You didn't factor in the move towards EVs, it is a large demand especially when some manufacturers and countries have already set their goals to hit certain targets.

Statements for Intel CEO and a likes is for investor and to drive share price, company value up (short term gains). Not surprise if they are BSing and have no idea what's going on for half the time. They (people with decision making power) will miss all busts and booms in foreseeable future, while real engineers, researcher and other people in the know, will be ignored.

I OVED THE SHOE VIDEO. Wait, did I like it? brb.

Man, I really really need a new computer. Have been hodling off since the pandemic and also because AMD CPUs were crazy expensive. Also need far more RAM than before. Did we mention that gamers have massive pent up demand in GPUs because ETH crypto miners have been snatching up all high performance cards? Also Win 11 coming out. That should drive hardware upgrades too.

There is not enough silicon ingot production for a bust

Sorry to be that guy, but you should know that it's usually pronounced "D Ram", not "Dram" like the unit of water. Dee Ram. D-RAM. Dynamic-RAM. I've never heard it said like you do before. :) Edit: Also, same is true for other types of ram. Like static ram being called S Ram not Sram.

Your analysis was spot on before. The bust started some 3 months ago and affects logic. Intel has had a massive margin squeeze and AMD has started feeling it in DC GPUs. On consumers, all prices have come down and low end laptops are now selling 15% below pre-pandemic or at then sale price. With the current inflation environment... I follow semiconductor companies for two decades and your videos are great research on the matter. I can also tell you they come early and much more complete than what financial analysts do. Take pride, because you should.