The Shilling Vs The Dollar: It's A Matter Of Time Before We Go Back- Dr. Alex Kamau

Рет қаралды 94,216

Ай бұрын

GUEST: Dr. Alex Kamau- Business Consultant
Tune in to Spice FM in Nairobi on 94.4 • Mombasa 87.9 • Nakuru 96.0 • Eldoret 96.7 • Nyeri 90.9 • Kisumu 102.5 • Malindi 97.7. Always LIVE on spicefm.co.ke
Spice FM © 2024
FOLLOW US ON Instagram: spicefmke
Facebook: spicefmke
Twitter: spicefmke

Пікірлер: 263

@BenHinga Ай бұрын

Why do I feel like this channel is the most organised mature show that we have in Kenya . Everyone here is a top notch. Nikama aki siko Kenya . You guys Mko level ingine . No politics . Keeping it real for us the people. Thank you so much

@_Hiram Ай бұрын

inaitwa STANDARD media group.

@AAA-sx5ej Ай бұрын

What Ruto govt has done here simply put is they had a fuliza (chinese) loan. Then they went to kcb (Euro bond) to borrow so as to pay off the fuliza(chinese)debt, in the hope that fuliza (chinese) lends you again so that you can repay the your current kcb (euro bond) loan. Its called syndicated debt and when it crushes, it will crush big.

@jki6689 Ай бұрын

Well said👍

@africanqueenmo Ай бұрын

Wow

@JusJabaliAfrika Ай бұрын

Chonjo kabisa ,yep

@fredrickkariukichelsea2584 Ай бұрын

That's more like robbing peter to pay paul.this man😅😅

@AAA-sx5ej Ай бұрын

@fredrickkariukichelsea2584 that why you should not vote along tribal line. All they needed to do is to slim the government and sack thousands of useless public servants while protecting military, police, medical, kenha and Kenya power, and then Reduce barriers to trade including direct and indirect taxation to zero to encourage direct local and foreign investment in the export processing zone. That's the only way to grow the export capacity and create real jobs for the youth.

@josephsimba830 Ай бұрын

The key to FX is EXPORTS.

@kmipos Ай бұрын

What is currently happening in the Kenyan economy,is like a foolish man boasting in a borrowed suit, once the owner takes it back you get back to the usual rags,Ruto should not cheat kenyans that the economy is thriving

@symonhunk4685 Ай бұрын

It's "thriving" until when doctors are asking for a salary then the tune changes to the economy is not doing well.

@africanqueenmo Ай бұрын

Exactly

@felixwagai2168 Ай бұрын

I love the way he is explaining it in a simple manner.....even those who've not attended economics class can understand

@Stephen12. Ай бұрын

Before going to square ⬛️ one

@ngugidaniel1030 Ай бұрын

I love that we live in a country where we have the freedom to speak so openly about our realities.

@dukakisomondi8552 Ай бұрын

Tht is your yardstick? BTW, there is no normal country where that doesn't happen.

@anastasiahmwangi8188 Ай бұрын

As if speaking openly has added any value. Nobody listens and they are very arrogant.

@ngugidaniel1030 Ай бұрын

@@dukakisomondi8552 just travel across the boarder into Ethiopia, Eritrea, Djibouti, Somalia, Rwanda, Congo and get amazed at how little room is given to a discussion of the status quo.

@Reguis1000 Ай бұрын

have you ever lived in another country that curbs free speech?

@trizernasike3593 Ай бұрын

That is a right not a privilage

@rosesekere3467 Ай бұрын

Dr. Kamau should be CS Agricuture,CS Trade,CS anything that can change our status in reviving our economy

@machariaphilip Ай бұрын

CBK has not been publishing the FX rates on a daily basis on its website as it used to. This trend began in January 2024. Reasons best known to them.

@scofield6490 Ай бұрын

Buy dollar

@user-zg9rb4to9n Ай бұрын

Smelling a baaaad rat!!

@simonmulandi7412 Ай бұрын

The volatility from 162 to 127 can only be supported by dumping

@unbiasedreviews6167 Ай бұрын

Exactly. Otherwise our economy should have grown at the same speed.

@crazytackler.6427 Ай бұрын

This is simply a reversal of the sharp slide from 125 to 162. I think it was driven was driven by speculation

@danielmuriithi8486 Ай бұрын

132 now, What's even dumber is the next moron in chief(pardon me, I really hate our politicians) will enforce stupid tax measures that will have us sliding further into debt, and destabilizing. All because the IMF told them don't industrialize and we will give you loans

@kenmwongela83 Ай бұрын

The best explanation... Just like buying and dumping crypto currency.

@TIKTOK_CHANNEL101 Ай бұрын

Now 132 and climbing

@user-rh8nw7xj6p Ай бұрын

The psychology of Kenyan public, strong shilling equals strong economy. What they don't know is that the economy is in ICU and Zakayo is manipulating the shilling to gain political mileage. When the artificial manipulation ends, most likely after 2027 elections, exchange rate will shoot past 200.

@Kittygacha_playz Ай бұрын

We will reach 200 long before 2027.

@user-lc4yy2rf2p Ай бұрын

This is why i kept my dollars im no expert but i listen to my gut

@wavyyylikethesea5273 Ай бұрын

It' s now at 133

@grandsonmasoud9753 Ай бұрын

It is called retracement...wait n see it will push to 200

@cuttingedgeConsistentTraders Ай бұрын

In a few months It is shooting back to 162 plus. Ngoja. The temporary leadership view of the economy is laughable

@migbik Ай бұрын

Excellent explanation

@prabhjotjuttla3924 Ай бұрын

Finally someone speaking some sense.

@peterndungu461 Ай бұрын

Good information.

@abdishakurmaxamed4136 Ай бұрын

Thanks dr.helpful information.

@simonwanja Ай бұрын

Conversation full of knowledge ❤....

@LeeMakwiny Ай бұрын

Wow!

@alexkibe4179 Ай бұрын

One thing i have learnt. It doesnt matter what happens, you will always see it the way you want. Even when chances are slim

@mourice1669 Ай бұрын

Lol 😂😂 you are always supporting kk failures

@paulgitubiah4223 Ай бұрын

I absolutely agree with this guy.

@georgemayo7383 Ай бұрын

Very well said and explained.

@collinsgitonga8199 Ай бұрын

very educational and insightful

@joelmutungi4018 Ай бұрын

Very informative. Thanks Spice FM for educating

@marta3503 Ай бұрын

He's Brilliant

@josephokello5693 Ай бұрын

Uncle William is claiming that the economy has grown amd continues to grow faster than Omanyala.

@fatumaadam4271 Ай бұрын

Anadhani hatujui kile enaendelea

@kennethokumu6375 Ай бұрын

Willie amekuwa jama wa jaba base ... kabsaaa😂

@kennethokumu6375 Ай бұрын

Willie amekuwa jama wa jaba base ... kabsaaa😂

@user-gu2ne3wk8f Ай бұрын

Dr Kamau is a great teacher.

@GATORORO1 Ай бұрын

This is a whole economics class. Very clear and plain.

@jacklineachieng1131 Ай бұрын

This means will go back on our knees again 😢🙆🙆🙆

@marta3503 Ай бұрын

Bring him again tomorrow or soonest.He has made me understand.

@anthonymuchokimurigi1476 Ай бұрын

our currency is always mmanipulated by affluent owners of kenya.

@iscarobuogoh-hohloch2071 Ай бұрын

Thanx CT! We in diaspora really deny ourselves, take up even 2 Jobs to help pur families back home. We actually sacrifice a lot. We don’t have any extras to send, pay the „AFRICAN TAX“ as my kids refer to it. We should be appreciated!!

@Winnie_talks Ай бұрын

Yes you should be appreciated BY YOUR families

@batejerezadominic6805 Ай бұрын

Black tax

@usiniletee Ай бұрын

I am enjoying this conversation, this man explains in a simple formula that I understood everything. I loved it.

@allenchilekw5698 Ай бұрын

Wiseman

@samuelgikuna5662 Ай бұрын

A very clear economist explaining it in a very simple way.

@davidmbugua226 Ай бұрын

Very informative indeed! Dr Kamau is well versed on matters money. Well worth listening.

@simonmakacha5810 Ай бұрын

Regarding the dollars I think it was evident from the word go, even without Forex education one would notice we'll still fall back to the higher rating.

@thomasmomanyi3931 Ай бұрын

So do you want us to fall??

@simonmakacha5810 Ай бұрын

@@thomasmomanyi3931 unless our government is strategic in fighting corruption, we can manage to maintain a good score and not fall to where we were before. No one is happy with the falling 😪

@davidngigi9843 Ай бұрын

@@thomasmomanyi3931fall. From where. Once you've fallen all you need to do is rise or remain there.

@obarelida Ай бұрын

he has explained it so well that even a kindergarten child will understand

@simonwanja Ай бұрын

Dr kamau should be our financial advisor to our government

@ngugidaniel1030 Ай бұрын

It also shocks me why we don't have such serious minds in these offices.

@nicomutua Ай бұрын

We were saying the same about Ndii🤣🤣 There is just something when you get into the system.

@andallaathman3856 Ай бұрын

Ruto hata advise ya mtu yoyote yy anajua kila kitu

@elijahogaya8837 Ай бұрын

Dr Kamau is brilliant. Good show this was.

@robertmuiruri550 Ай бұрын

Very sober conversation

@suleymanali431 Ай бұрын

Tuna umiya sisi who tuna tuma chapa Home ,we pay too much to buy dollars

@ndungunahashon1759 29 күн бұрын

Am discovering this pod 2weeks later and his sentiments are already passing.

@michaelokumu204 Ай бұрын

Great insight I'm worried since this is the same guy who predicted last year that Kenya would default on it's loans in 2024.

@bernardmuoka8542 Ай бұрын

Kenya is a middle class economy that is why it was given a higher percentage than Ivory cost

@OUMAMIRUKAOFFICIAL Ай бұрын

The only way to shore a dwindled forex reserve is by putting in place the bearish pennants(focusing on export, taming cost push inflation etc etc) not by borrowing. The appreciation is shortlife.

@jacksonmorara2904 Ай бұрын

sawa jatelo..! Acha dollar ipande saidi ju sisi watu wa kaptengelee tunaenjoy value tunapata through cross currency exchange. Donge?

@OUMAMIRUKAOFFICIAL Ай бұрын

@@jacksonmorara2904 kabisa ndugu. Shikilia.

@davidlubanga5527 Ай бұрын

I said and will say it again. I am hoading my dollars till July

@benjaman5431 Ай бұрын

Another reason could be the decrease in the demand for dollars for cross border payments. Another reason we should act as block to remove the dollar as an intermediary. And create a single currency for EAC.

@benxinc Ай бұрын

Time to buy my Dolla back before it hits 200

@DjKenG-bz9dn Ай бұрын

Why sell it in the first place

@usiniletee Ай бұрын

Yesoooo, I am holding on mine since then the shilling gained. I know it will fall.

@theflyingbushman Ай бұрын

Waiiiiiit ..hold ...hold my cup of tea....did he just say we collect 2T but our budget is 4T .... heeeaaa......

@brianjunior7571 Ай бұрын

I say this always... anything UNSUSTAINABLE ain't WORTH it.

@elishalimo1420 Ай бұрын

The rate might fall back down but we cannot ignore the fact that the strengthening of the shilling has come with its advantages. Money borrowed when the rate was @ 160 means the govt gets to save by paying back when the rate is @130 even if you include the interest

@b.tedley2586 Ай бұрын

this is only useful if we are repaying our debts now. Are we? Or are some people more interested in trading forex with our taxes

@dandee7414 Ай бұрын

@@b.tedley2586Yes we have shortterm debts that govt has to pay...some we borrowed at 162 now we will pay at sh132

@Invible943 Ай бұрын

Yes true we don’t send from surplus but from sacrificing.. the more the dollar fall the more we can’t send😡.

@kabakiAntony Ай бұрын

Somehow the government procuring the eurobond makes sense on the sudden change of kes / USD rates if you go back in time to around 12th feb when the government procured the bond , then the dollar started doing a dive against the kes.

@kiplangatbett4755 Ай бұрын

Im saving this video to come back and comment next year

@geoffreyaroni7415 Ай бұрын

Comment today one week later it is happening

@rosesekere3467 Ай бұрын

The government should competitively go into production and encourage those that export be it flowers..coffee.. tea or whatever to compensate or support people who are willing to produce exports....it's the government job to create such environment

@sue0521 Ай бұрын

Allow me to repeat this yet again, same thing i said in Jan 2024.... WSR is like the jamaa in the office who borrows from his workmate opposite his desk 1 K, then end month anaenda next office to borrow another 1 K to pay off his workmate opposite his desk..... The following month he now borrows from another workmate on 1st floor to pay the one nexx to his office.... Si you know those kind of people wanaonba pesa wakilipa in a merigo-round kind of cycle... HII KENYA YETU HAPO NDIPO TUKO.... AND I REPEAT AGAIN... As long as Kenyan govt is not involved in serious international trade, promoting exports intensively and extensively.... DOLLAR LAZINA IPANDE NA IPITE KSH.200 BY AUGUST 2024.... WATCH THIS SPACE....

@franciskarumba5353 Ай бұрын

That increase in diaspora remittance was mainly due to panic of the appreciating kes. Moving forward, you will experience a huge drop in the same remittances unless the $ starts appreciating against the kes.

@jefmweds Ай бұрын

This is good conversation, I will publish my thinking on the reasons for the exchange rate fluctuations. They should have asked him, if our current account balance has increased or decreased? We will be in June in a months time, ask me if the USD will be at 160. It's easy to talk and give narratives without reference to data. The current budget deficit was reduced and the next budget deficit will decrease as well. You can't do away with budget deficit financing in your first year but it's a process. On reducing the government spending, this is so because we are not doing massive Capita infrastructure development. Investment is a factor in economic growth and as such it is necessary. But our revenue can't support any big infrastructure investment. It's either we rely on debt financing or PPPs for development financing

@michaelmkibe-dr3fi Ай бұрын

If this was my economics teacher i would not have gotten D-. That Indian teacher failed me

@maureenshisia770 Ай бұрын

🤣🤣🤣

@mohamedjama105 Ай бұрын

😂😂😂 ww uliamini mhindi akufunze vile ako na uhasidi/ubinafsi, mhindi hawezi kufunza kitu roho safi, afadhali akufe

@brianotaaba4224 Ай бұрын

Happened

@jamaatuu Ай бұрын

WachA I keep my Foreign currency ready. Money in the bag now

@antonymunene9160 Ай бұрын

Its behavioural finance

@beccahwakhungu289 Ай бұрын

Where do you get such doctors

@michaelmwalii6878 Ай бұрын

Nop not necessarily ,key to ksh not sliding is taking imports as much as possible ...With near clinker import ban soon coming , record rainfall thinks will not necessarily slide to where they were , atlet not in this decade

@dandee7414 Ай бұрын

One of the best comments. I believe Ruto will continue raising importation taxes for goods we can make in Kenya and only import raw materials that are not available in Kenya...we will also be exporting clinker in large quantities rather than importing...high rainfall will also not allow the dollar to slide. Plus high base lending rates

@abdurahimabdulkadir3926 Ай бұрын

Kuna watu hapa kwa comment eti wanasema kuna watu wanaona uchungu uchumi ukiwa sawa sababu eti dolla imeanguka mm wa kwanza nataka dolla irudi ilipokua 165 hata ikienda zaidi kwangu raha zaidi

@dac4845 Ай бұрын

There was zero economic activity to back the recent Fx favorable change

@miriamatienowagoro9388 Ай бұрын

Yesterday it was127

@adrianteri Ай бұрын

25:32 Banks aren't intermediaries or "mediators" between savers and borrowers. Commercial Banks in KE(and others in countries with their own currencies) print money(KES or their respective currencies) from "thin air" to extend loans/credit to creditworthy borrowers! Doubt this? Another angle to look at this is a loan being an asset to a bank. It thus it can not claim deposits by "savers" to be assets which it can lend/extend to "borrowers". These deposits are LIABILITIES to the bank!

@ENG.Kelvin Ай бұрын

Ako na kakitu kweli

@labankemei4477 Ай бұрын

cant get it, a) He is saying the reason the dollar gained is because Kenyans who were speculating hoarded the dollar expecting to sell them at higher prices, but they have now released them back to the market. This might be true, but again will the same Kenyans after June 24, will hoard their dollars again from market therefore dollar gaining?. b) He said we borrow from international market to repay the loan which means we will not use our local dollar reserve which are now dropping the dollar price down. So unless find something else to speculate, the will have no reason to hoard again

@our10picks18 Ай бұрын

What goes up must come down! Lol 😏

@kabuthakabutha9472 Ай бұрын

0.53 is Ndu touching the screen like a phone!?!!. Ohhhh my goodness this technology will finish us. 😅😅😅

@_Hiram Ай бұрын

What measures should be put in place Daktari to ensure that the shilling does not depreciate again?

@okonusammy1929 Ай бұрын

what of the Euro and the Pound

@jacklineachieng1131 Ай бұрын

No shortcuts in money making

@suleymanali431 Ай бұрын

The problem with Kenya is they Have too much black market who are holding the Dollar and central bank of Kenya has no enough Dollars.

@graceeshun707 Ай бұрын

Ura Currency

@user-king83487 Ай бұрын

The current exchange rate is a blessing for the ordinary mwananchi. Going for Hajj becomes a little cheaper.

@reubennjomo4258 Ай бұрын

Kamati za roho chafu!!!?

@kibetwalter4622 Ай бұрын

The same reason it depreciated is the same reason it is appreciating. Pure speculation.

@pnzasi Ай бұрын

I have no education in economics but I believe as we attribute the gain of the shilling to dollar hoarders selling hence terming it temporary, we need to appreciate the effect to the shilling during the “hoarding” process which might have made the shilling lose value. And hence the gain is a correction of what happened during the “hoarding” process..

@anastasiahmwangi8188 Ай бұрын

The correction also is temporary because the debt to be repaid which is the reason for hoarding, still exists.

@danielmuriithi8486 Ай бұрын

The correction will still be temporary

@eastafricanist9156 Ай бұрын

I thought Kenya operates a hybrid exchange rate system, not a floating one.

@vastcapital Ай бұрын

Foreign participations in IFB Bond in February...

@muhuradedan Ай бұрын

Its 132 from 127...

@kibetkirui3949 Ай бұрын

Let's also look at the performance of all other currencies worldwide how they're performing against the dollar. Currencies bagged by Gold and those that are not, how are they performing? Zimbabwe has now introduced ZIG currency, and Russian Rubble is struggling, but surprisingly, the following are the strongest currencies in the first quarter of 2024: 1. New Zealand dollar2. Australian dollar3. Singapore dollar4. Brunei dollar5. Libyan dinar6. Canadian dollar7. United States dollar8. Swiss franc9. Euro 10. Cayman Islands dollar11. Gibraltar pound12. Pound sterling13. Jordan dinar14. Omani rial15. Bahrain dinar16. Kuwaiti dinar17. Trading currency pairs

@shadrackkaremu782 Ай бұрын

0:48

@edwardonyaoking8173 Ай бұрын

The real exchange rates is 1$=5000kshs. Kenya iko debt ya 900 trillion shillings and intrest is 600 trillion shillings in dollars denomination. Kenyans lipa next 2000 years. He who borrows (kenyans) is a slave to the lender.

@pammora292 Ай бұрын

Say positive about your country. The mouth blesses and curses. Learn to call for blessings to our country. Not everything is politics. Vice versa to our families.

@technifier857 Ай бұрын

The world is waiting for Japan officials decision on their u.s Treasury bonds.

@benardobande4235 Ай бұрын

LEO IKO 13..ANG'OA

@jimarkjimark4776 Ай бұрын

Then huyu uncle William utubeba aje sually?

@daniellouis8722 Ай бұрын

The more you buy dollars the more you weaken your own currency. Instead we should be working to strengthen the shilling.

@benardochieng1160 Ай бұрын

Buy from where, dolar should be earned by our economic activities

@dandee7414 Ай бұрын

@@benardochieng1160from agriculture during high rains ie, we reduce demand on maize imports and reduce demand on clinker import

@khalidali-pg6nn Ай бұрын

That's my lecturer 😂😂😂

@jacksonmorara2904 Ай бұрын

Oh really? Here is a cookie..!!

@annwilliams5041 Ай бұрын

😂😂😂 Exactly! We still send money only for mkate nusu.. Your guest has given us good news "150 there" that is 🎉🎉🎉

@TheHurez Ай бұрын

This guy is a quak!😂😂 Ati UGX to USD crosses thru KES

@danielmuriithi8486 Ай бұрын

Rates buddy rates

@gerishonmwaniki5318 Ай бұрын

Kenya shilling has gained against the dollar but hasn't gained against UGX. So converting UGX to Kshs and then converting Ksh to dollars will earn u more USD.

@danielmuriithi8486 Ай бұрын

@@gerishonmwaniki5318 And that by itself should tell you there is an issue, it is a solid plan, but it kind of dispells the myth that our currency is performing at the world stage