The Stolen Money Game (Pascal's Mugging)

Рет қаралды 460,192

3 жыл бұрын

A money game exists in which the potential payoff from being robbed makes perfect mathematical sense… but I won’t play it. Will you?
“Pascal’s Mugging” is derived from the classic philosophical scenario of Pascal’s Wager, which posits that it’s rational for humans to behave as though God exists. If they’re wrong, they don’t lose much; if they’re right, they have an infinite payoff in the afterlife.
The scenario of Pascal’s Mugging stems from Eliezer Yudkowsky’s unique twist on the original wager: what if a thief promised you a tremendous payoff tomorrow for stealing your wallet today? At what point would the near-infinitesimal odds of a criminal rewarding you tomorrow actually warrant you giving them a small amount of money right now?
If we process the situation by using expected value, we could very well be giving up our wallets to criminals who we know without a doubt will disappear forever, and the math would reinforce our decision. The consequences of that mathematical rationalism extend not only into everyday behavior, but also into areas like artificial intelligence. If math can lead us into bad decisions, how can we possibly program AI to act in our best interest?
The next time a creepy baby threatens to steal your wallet, consider the nuanced ramifications in decision theory, probability theory, and utilitarianism -- and to what degree we’ve made progress on the problem over the last 400 years.
** SOURCES **
“Pascal’s Mugging,” Nick Bostrom: nickbostrom.com/papers/pascal...
“Pascal’s Mugging: Tiny Probabilities of Vast Utilities,” by Eliezer Yudkowsky: www.lesswrong.com/posts/a5JAi...
“Pascal’s Muggle: Infinitesimal Priors and Strong Evidence,” by Eliezer Yudkowsky: www.lesswrong.com/posts/Ap4Kf...
“Pascal’s Wager,” Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy: plato.stanford.edu/entries/pa...
Benn, Alfred W. “Pascal's Wager.” International Journal of Ethics, vol. 15, no. 3, 1905, pp. 305-323. JSTOR, www.jstor.org/stable/2376414
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Пікірлер: 1 000

@pinkyoilers 3 жыл бұрын

Counter point: $10 is a small price to pay to get a weird demon baby to leave you alone

@KohuGaly 3 жыл бұрын

counter counter point: I get to keep my $10 dollars AND a weird demon baby

@Havron 3 жыл бұрын

@@KohuGaly “Come one, come all! Step right up and see the weird demon baby! Only $20!”

@davidwallace7543 3 жыл бұрын

@@KohuGaly 🤣🤣🤣🤣😂

@davidwallace7543 3 жыл бұрын

😂😂😂

@user-yp1xv1tk2l 3 жыл бұрын

It's gonna come back for MORE

@Mauripsu 3 жыл бұрын

"I'm being mugged by a baby" That's probably not the weirdest intro he has done

@AxxLAfriku 3 жыл бұрын

ORORORORO!!! I spend half of my day sleeping! ORORORO!!! Then I sometimes get up and tell you that I am a famous content creatorORORORORO!!! Please don't sleep while driving, dear maueo

@TheGamer-hd4ef 3 жыл бұрын

@ Mauro Padrón No sir you're probably being Bugged by a May be, now sit back and enjoy debugging yourself.... hhhh :)

@lukegreen1063 3 жыл бұрын

The best one: "I have 25... babies"

@ThatFoxxoLeo 3 жыл бұрын

@@AxxLAfriku what

@impendio 3 жыл бұрын

*Berd wants to know your location*

@dstinnettmusic 3 жыл бұрын

“Balloon argues with doll about money”

@Vsauce2 3 жыл бұрын

I AM REAL KEVIN

@wanderingshade8383 3 жыл бұрын

@@Vsauce2 THAT'S WHAT BALLOON KEVIN WOULD SAY

@michaelcadieux 3 жыл бұрын

What if neither of them are real Kevin? O.o

@omarandre293 3 жыл бұрын

@@wanderingshade8383 are you the real kevin?

@eric718_ 3 жыл бұрын

@@wanderingshade8383 GET HIM!

@mduardo 3 жыл бұрын

My good ol' high school mates wanting to introduce me in a pyramid scheme

@magicjello4633 3 жыл бұрын

Love the profile pic ;)

@AgentM124 3 жыл бұрын

Egypt studies I see?

@mduardo 3 жыл бұрын

@@magicjello4633 Just contributing to the cause

@p0w3r3d 3 жыл бұрын

@@mduardo what cause

@mduardo 3 жыл бұрын

@@p0w3r3d A new Super Monkey Ball game

@Multyplied 3 жыл бұрын

Breaking News: Doll gave the entire world GDP to a balloon, stock market crashes.

@The360MlgNoscoper 3 жыл бұрын

Not the Stock Market!

@The360MlgNoscoper 3 жыл бұрын

Oh the humanity!

@tomenosmauserrio2747 3 жыл бұрын

Stonks

@SarahAbramova 2 жыл бұрын

Ballon Kevin!

@mikieswart 3 жыл бұрын

intelligence is knowing that, mathematically, it’s a good deal wisdom is knowing to never trust strange babies you come across on the streets

@RedOctober_ 3 жыл бұрын

"The wise seem dim-witted at first"

@Lagrange00 3 жыл бұрын

If you think that even mathematically it’s a good deal then it doesn’t show intelligence, it just tells you that probably you didn’t account for something in your calculations or assumed something incorrectly along the way... because that definitely isn’t a good deal.

@georgecataloni4720 3 жыл бұрын

I hate street babies.

@antanis 3 жыл бұрын

@@Lagrange00 as a purely mathematical experience this is always a good deal as far as the first version goes at some point the odds are in your favor. That's said, if a pascals mugging were to take place in real life I think most people would refuse and be rational in doing so. The expected return vs the relative value 10 dollars is the biggest question.

@JohnSmith-xf1zu 3 жыл бұрын

@@antanis As someone else already pointed out, as the expected payout increases, the likelihood that the doll will follow through with that amount correspondingly decreases. So the expected value still tends towards zero. The only reason this scenario exists is by completely ignoring this fact when doing the initial math, but then countering the math with this fact afterward, pretending that our reasoning has outsmarted math. I know a lot of these scenarios are contrived to teach a math lesson, but this one has to be the most contrived.

@tiger5869 3 жыл бұрын

If I have $10 in my wallet, I can live with giving up my $10, but giving up my wallet is not an option

@niftyspiffyguy 3 жыл бұрын

Updating your ID at the DMV is inconvenient in its own right let alone everything else in a wallet

@Deado 3 жыл бұрын

I would never give up my Ridge Wallet

@200odd300 3 жыл бұрын

@@Deado you actually had a ridge wallet?

@Deado 3 жыл бұрын

@@200odd300 unfortunately not, wish I did tho

@lukasseirlehner3080 3 жыл бұрын

"Stealing 10 bucks from people and giving them 1000$ the next day" ...sounds like a new MrBeast video 😂

@kajxqeirscl 3 жыл бұрын

true

@malexthegreat 3 жыл бұрын

True if this offer was made by mr beast I would accept it

@giggle6070 3 жыл бұрын

Minus the stealing part

@crashdemons 3 жыл бұрын

More like Bernie Madoff video (assuming the doll has to find illegal ways to make the payments) Unfortunately, people *have* played out Pascal's Mugging in ponzi schemes.

@ZekeBittersweet Жыл бұрын

The chaos makes me think more of Max Fosh actually

@AtomicShrimp 3 жыл бұрын

If I plot my 'gut' confidence that the promise of reimbursement is real, it rises after $10, but peaks at maybe $100, then goes back down. Someone who needs $10 might pay back $20 tomorrow; they might be genuinely desperate enough that they would pay back $100 tomorrow, but it seems that anyone who has access to a thousand, a million, a billion to pay back tomorrow, is decreasingly likely to be asking for $10 today. But I concur with your final conclusion - regardless their relative probability, all of them are too unlikely for my appetite

@DrDrao 3 жыл бұрын

Why hello there.

@jasonnong3305 3 жыл бұрын

Wow I never thought I would see you here, I love your videos !

@agushernandez6083 3 жыл бұрын

Hey, It's Atomic Shrimp! I love your vids.

@henryrichard7619 3 жыл бұрын

If 100 rich Nigerian widows email me about each one sending me $1,000,000 tomorrow if I wire her $100 dollars today, what’s the probability that I break even?

@sabieleclipse5799 3 жыл бұрын

I wouldn't pay more than 50$ (which I've actually done) and only if I really needed to get high/drunk 😹

@janKijemeKawalo 3 жыл бұрын

* kevin in a street * rober: hey, this is a mugging * kevin pulls out a camera * kevin: no, it's not a muggin and i'm trying to make a math video

@synphoniggle 3 жыл бұрын

You're a genius

@puppyton2793 3 жыл бұрын

Mark rober

@The360MlgNoscoper 3 жыл бұрын

Lol mark

@U014B 3 жыл бұрын

@@puppyton2793 Plot Twist: It's actually Jake Roper (pretending to be Mark Rober) mugging Kevin for his PS5.

@Games_and_Music 3 жыл бұрын

@@U014B I thought it was Jack, Jack the Roper

@THEoldy 3 жыл бұрын

As the offered value increases, the likeliness of them paying out decreases, which could cancel this just on its own But more importantly the money would have a diminishing return on impact on your life, weighed against the constant impact of the losing the $10. Scaling endlessly this caps out, so the expected return tends to zero (given any scaling low likelihood of payout.)

@googolplexbyte 3 жыл бұрын

Further another issue arises. The possibility of a secret counter-offer. At some point, a test of character with a payout for refusing the mugging is about as likely as a mugging with a payout for accepting. Small chance * payout for accepting < small chance * payout for refusing + keeping $10

@sabieleclipse5799 3 жыл бұрын

Biggest payout for refusing an actual mugger - getting shot/stabbed and no longer needing the 10$ 😸

@ruukinen 2 жыл бұрын

In the same vein that very large sums have diminishing quality of life improvement so does a measly 10$ have insignificant immediate quality of life improvement. It's why I'm perfectly happy spending 1€ on a lottery ticket every week or so because the 52€ I would save in a year has absolutely no impact on my life whatsoever while winning the ever so unlikely 1m< will immediately have drastic impact on my life.

@Mythraen 6 ай бұрын

@@googolplexbyte Glad someone got that. It gets even crazier though if you posit an unknown number of secret offers of unknown rewards.

@paulschulze6105 3 жыл бұрын

"What if the baby has a biological weapon?" Kevin you kept your $10 about a year ago huh

@SpikeTheDankMeme 3 жыл бұрын

Lmao

@user-or5ke5yn4w 3 жыл бұрын

This is the best comment here hahaha

@kamalkhemani359 3 жыл бұрын

😂😂😂

@295g295 2 жыл бұрын

> 5:33

@TheZotmeister 3 жыл бұрын

I am so disappointed that his "and as always" was accompanied by his throwing the bills at the camera rather than _smacking the doll off the table_ .

@jordantucker3014 3 жыл бұрын

I didn’t know I needed that to happen till now, now I’m dissatisfied

@skydyverjym 2 жыл бұрын

Are you kidding? He'd be better off burning that 10 bucks than smashing that very expensive pristine vintage prop cabbage patch doll. I haven't looked it up but I'd wager it's worth WAY NORTH of 10 bucks, or even 100

@Cyberlisk 3 жыл бұрын

"The baby knows the expected value calculation." That's a pretty smart baby. ;P

@zBrain0 3 жыл бұрын

Even more impressive is the fact that it's an inanimate object and not an actual baby

@nicknevco215 3 жыл бұрын

think the baby just knows their mark well

@Naruto31132 2 жыл бұрын

@@nicknevco215 think dababy

@zilvarro5766 3 жыл бұрын

Day 1: pays 10 dollars to doll Day 2: receives 1 billion dollars Day 3: reads newspaper "doll arrested for scamming 100 million people"

@joeybeauvais-feisthauer3137 3 жыл бұрын

So exactly the lottery then

@Pssst.ByTheWay 3 жыл бұрын

not exactly lottery, similar in ways., doll scams 1000 000 000, so it can proove, look it works for this one person, they got 1 billion. hence round 2 can keep going. in the example, no profit for doll, and rounds end after 1 round. further the doll garantees YOU a win . lottery garanteea SOMEONE a win. the doll the risk calc is if the doll will do, what is promissed. lottery is for something else, and to my knowledge, it does pay out 100% of the time, the promise to pay A winning apon conditions is kept 100%.

@vulcwen 3 жыл бұрын

Day 4, your 1 billion dollars are confiscated and you land in jail.

@riemartmagdato4991 3 жыл бұрын

Haheheha

@sillyguy_5559 7 ай бұрын

The fool officially started a ponzi scheme

@LordSatoh 3 жыл бұрын

In some parallel universes, Kevin is receiving $10bi from a creepy baby right now

@yingo4098 3 жыл бұрын

_kevin fills up a swimming pool with peanut butter and dives in_ Doll: HoW R U GoNnA GeT OUt noW _KEVEEEEEEEEN_

@gamervirtuoso1758 3 жыл бұрын

JACK

@GapWim 3 жыл бұрын

Follow up doll proposal: give me back the 1billion dollars to get you out!

@EvilRamin 3 жыл бұрын

He'll stay there, and eat that for food until it runs out, and then he'll get out

@nate_storm 3 жыл бұрын

*JAAAAACK

@Offthedog 3 жыл бұрын

POV. Vsauce Kevin wakes you up at night with his baby

@thedude5295 3 жыл бұрын

Better than Rich Evan's laughs waking you up every night because the YT algorithm is broken and keeps playing the same videos you've already watched over and over and over again in your Up Next.

@bhib1960 3 жыл бұрын

is the baby with him or does he use the baby to wake me up, it's important

@andreaspatsalides1914 3 жыл бұрын

"hey can I mug you for 100$ tomorrow?"

@gamingwithlenbot4799 3 жыл бұрын

Bro that’s scary

@isaacotwell4858 2 жыл бұрын

are we just going to ignore that at 3:00 this man literally described squid game almost a year before it came out?

@Forg0-Nan0 2 жыл бұрын

Omg same thought lol

@lazergurka-smerlin6561 3 жыл бұрын

Something I've noticed about expected utility is that the probability and repeatability are much more important than the actual values you get from expected utility. Because if you can't repeat this a billion times, and your chances are like one in a hundred million, you most likely won't get out with what expected utility tells you. Rather you get indebted to hell most of the time

@juliannaf.3074 3 жыл бұрын

Imagine the baby actually going through with its promise but the next day it gives you 1 billion dollars in Monopoly money...

@mauer1 3 жыл бұрын

It could be worth at least more than the 10 bucks

@Havron 3 жыл бұрын

@@mauer1 Seriously, that's at minimum 2 million x $500 bills (assuming the standard edition of the game) and printing ain't free.

@aronseptianto8142 3 жыл бұрын

you might even get the return of investment if you recycle that paper properly

@DrDrao 3 жыл бұрын

@@Havron Counter point: Monopoly here and now. 20 bills; take it or leave it.

@TheBreaker3333 2 жыл бұрын

I'm so confused, the audio is horrifyingly out of sync, but no one's mentioning it, I feel like I'm losing my mind! Help!

@markylon Жыл бұрын

WOW I thought it was me only. I looked at the comments and no one mentioned it so I thought it was just me so started looking at all my settings. Thank God for you. What's wrong with everyone else?!?!

@superautopenguin2877 Жыл бұрын

Same Here! I was incredibly confused

@samuellafleur890 3 жыл бұрын

For all the videos vsauce2 has done about risk, expected outcome, and interesting- yet-bizarre thought experiments I'm surprised he hasn't covered Roko's Basilisk.

@ThePenguinMan Жыл бұрын

“How to commit mass murder without getting caught 101”

@Gamerboy365ify 3 жыл бұрын

If a doll comes to life and asks for ten dollars, you give it ten dollars. Never argue with haunted dolls.

@IoEstasCedonta 3 жыл бұрын

"That's a 100% return on being mugged by me" is going to become a meme, isn't it?

@Naokarma 2 жыл бұрын

Sadly not, but it should've been

@fzf404 Жыл бұрын

I can tell. Still not.

@wokiswok8976 3 жыл бұрын

Grown man talks to a doll for internet entertainment 2020 colorized

@gewurzgurke4964 3 жыл бұрын

That's clearly a balloon arguing with a doll, smh

@Tytoalba777 3 жыл бұрын

Wow, a guest star of the famous Nigerian Prince himself! Tell him he still owes me for the 1000 bucakaroos I gave him a couple years ago to access his back account.

@durellnelson2641 3 жыл бұрын

He hasn't paid you back either?

@yararinamiil 3 жыл бұрын

genius

@ArturoTabera 2 жыл бұрын

Wait, he owes you too?

@Kjleed13 3 жыл бұрын

If I mugged a hundred people with the promise of 1% chance I’ll give them a $100 the next day. As long as the average amount in a wallet is above $1 I stand to profit.

@kamdenmcleanmusic 3 жыл бұрын

But you wouldn’t be able to pay them back

@waylonpark2340 3 жыл бұрын

Love Your Profile Pic How Can I Find It ?

@vulcwen 3 жыл бұрын

I thought this video was going to be about ponzi schemes at first.

@pedronunes3063 3 жыл бұрын

@@kamdenmcleanmusic If the average is bigger than 1, 1×100 = 100

@kamdenmcleanmusic 3 жыл бұрын

@@pedronunes3063 but you have 100 people to pay back, you’ll need 100 dollars for each person, therefore 100*100=10k.

@mariocantisani807 3 жыл бұрын

This is bias because the doll thing says “tomorrow” and when tomorrow comes it will be today so you will never get the money

@FishAreEvil 3 жыл бұрын

I've learned more from V-Sauce than all my 10 years in school

@h4X0r99221 3 жыл бұрын

Amazing channel! Bringing topics and concepts to us, nobody even knows exist or thinks about, but are part of our daily life!

@justaregulartoaster 3 жыл бұрын

Btw that's literally how most email scams work

@SpikeTheDankMeme 3 жыл бұрын

And the lottery

@taragnor 9 ай бұрын

@@SpikeTheDankMeme The lottery's probability is known. You can figure out the odds if you want to run the numbers. The lottery just puts the odds against you.

@jasongrundy1717 3 жыл бұрын

Unlike playing the lottery, the larger the payout, the smaller the chance you'll get it from a robber.

@masako8980 3 жыл бұрын

How is that unlike the lottery

@mattheweurt26 3 жыл бұрын

The beginning of this video perfectly explains when you should call in poker just based on the pot size. You have to consider your odds of winning, and whether the payout is worth it relative to your chip stack.

@dernxo 3 жыл бұрын

Kevin you're diving into more than math right now, and I love it!!

@TheEnde124 3 жыл бұрын

I imagine Kevin standing next to a pool of peanut butter, scratching his head and thinking: now what?

@davidwallace7543 3 жыл бұрын

Doll: “Do the math 🧮, Kevin. Do...the...math!” Me: 😂😂😂😂😩🤣🤣🤣🤣

@NurioMarayana 2 жыл бұрын

The audio and video are desynced by like 5 seconds. I only have it on this video, and I already tried restarting my browser, clearing my cache, and everything. Is the video just like this or is something else going on?

@ihsanollasalamziy628 2 жыл бұрын

i think its the video

@AxzoYT 2 жыл бұрын

@@ihsanollasalamziy628 yep and only chrome, tried with mobile and it is fine

@benjamincarlson6994 2 жыл бұрын

Even if there is a virtually 0% chance of making that 1B bucks, there is a close to 100% chance that the demon doll leaves me alone, and I will hope that it will no longer haunt me

@danwhitehurst9592 3 жыл бұрын

“Give me your wallet jack!” “ my name’s Kevin not Jack” “ quit screwing around Jack”

@thattannerguy856 3 жыл бұрын

Idk why that made me laugh so much 😂

@danwhitehurst9592 3 жыл бұрын

@@thattannerguy856 me too. Kinda stole that from the SNL skit of Will Ferrell playing Harry Carey on Weekend Update and calling Colin Quinn, Norm ,thinking it was still Norm MacDonald.

@jobobrien1420 3 жыл бұрын

You keep saying that at a high enough payout it becomes mathematically optimal to accept the deal, but my intuition tells me this isn't true. It seems reasonable to me that the likelihood of the mugger making good on their promise is *inversely* proportional to the payout they're promising. It isn't a given that there is some extremely high promised payout that makes even a very low chance of receiving that payout worthwhile, as those two values could easily *diverge,* making the deal worse and worse as the promised payout increases.

@kingzoe5534 3 жыл бұрын

I’ve been watching you guys since i was a kid! I love youuu 💖💫‼️

@VoidKing666 2 жыл бұрын

“… to change tens of thousands of lives.” Your videos change hundreds of thousands of lives by sharing knowledge.

@victorlins6279 3 жыл бұрын

When you're so early every single comment is from people who havent even watched the video and have nothing to do with it

@victorlins6279 3 жыл бұрын

lol

@victorlins6279 3 жыл бұрын

@@MrSpiky lol

@aryankhare5623 3 жыл бұрын

ok, so all the VSAUCE is back with new EDUTAINMENT videos. yayayyy

@Roboguy-xq8td 3 жыл бұрын

Kevin's setting us all up for when he muggs us all tomorrow with this promise

@peter1038 3 жыл бұрын

Or just setting us up for scammers

@xxgriffeyxx8862 3 жыл бұрын

Love your videos!

@verymotivated7193 3 жыл бұрын

10€ today, 1000€ tomorrow Sounds like a lucky YOLO in stock trading

@DJ_MH_Remixes 3 жыл бұрын

Buy Bitcoin

@stevenlarratt3638 3 жыл бұрын

I turned a few k into a couple of million over 4 years it is possible

@rewq435 3 жыл бұрын

or scammer in runescape

@Bluejet_007 3 жыл бұрын

Pardon my cluelessness but what is a 'YOLO' in stock trading?

@stevenlarratt3638 3 жыл бұрын

@@Bluejet_007 you only live once, akin to a very risky binary outcome play...

@martso9288 3 жыл бұрын

The doll is basically the classic doubling money scam in Old School RuneScape

@PlushieFun1234 Жыл бұрын

I love math and all your videos make people know more and this is useful in a situation like this

@rrbee 2 жыл бұрын

Watching this post-Squid Games makes the whole thing just very much more interesting. :)

@jacobevans1162 3 жыл бұрын

I love how I refreshed my KZfaq page and this came up saying it was uploaded "4 seconds ago"

@thatonemajin3578 3 жыл бұрын

Imagine having a baby politely ask for your wallet, or else.

@RyanTosh 3 жыл бұрын

"Ixcwoose me, siw, I'm wost and need hewp. Can u giv me ten dowwers or I kiw u?"

@kazzyanddecchan733 3 жыл бұрын

That Cabbage Patch Kid has strong Caitlin from Ask A Mortician vibes and I love it.

@shlimon7667 2 жыл бұрын

I really like the description

@gurglemurgle5 3 жыл бұрын

Video not finished opinion: Its just $10, give me my billion

@boumbh 3 жыл бұрын

It reminds me of the Shadoks series: one in a million chance to succeed? Let's try one million times! “The Shadoks, an alien species seeking to invade Earth, have decided to build and launch a space rocket. The Shadoks' only problem is their sheer incompetence. Their rocket science is abysmal. Their chances of getting a rocket into space are less than one in a million. Still, the ever confident Shadoks decide to take that one in a million chance. One million failed launchings later, the Shadok engineers are elated: The situation was quite satisfactory. The trial rocket launches continued to fail very well (...) For such was the first basic principle of Shadok logic only by continually trying things out does one eventually achieve one's goals. In other words, the more you fail, the most likely you are to succeed.” (copy pasted from How Traditions Live and Die by Olivier Morin)

@Pax.YouTube 3 жыл бұрын

Vsause 2 and 3 striking it! Waiting for Michael's video as well.

@sebastienlebatteux185 3 жыл бұрын

Love your videos

@sanat900 3 жыл бұрын

Thanks for that child voice at 3.07 am. Thanks Kevin.

@Shorts-Kng 2 жыл бұрын

audio out of sync for me, other videos are fine but when i come back still out of sync, not sure if its just me or needs to be fixed!

@bitjaks 2 жыл бұрын

same

@UndrState 2 жыл бұрын

@@bitjaks - and it didn't used to be either , I've watched this video before and it was working fine .

@henrygreen2096 3 жыл бұрын

We went from the Twitter/Doubling money scam, to utilitarian belief... That's why I love this channel. Thinking outside the box and into a kaleidoscope

@ThatGuy-yc9yc 3 жыл бұрын

Fascinating are you suggesting that, just like our inability to fully grasp infinity, we also have a threshold in our ability to determine what the odds are. When the odds become so astronomically unlikely but never zero, we fail to comprehend it fully and revert to a perceived imaginary comprehensible odds and therefore believe it's possible.

@Devilot109 2 жыл бұрын

Why is the audio so badly, badly out of sync, and why is no-one mentioning that in the comments?

@AxzoYT 2 жыл бұрын

bug on chrome for some reason, idk what is causing it

@Devilot109 2 жыл бұрын

@@AxzoYT Had it on Firefox, myself, but modern Firefox does share a fair bit of code with Chrome at last check.

@insanimal2 2 жыл бұрын

aaargh why is the audio and video so out of sync?

@AxzoYT 2 жыл бұрын

same here

@raulsukovic5033 3 жыл бұрын

woah what is it with the upload schedule its been only a week since the last video im liking this

@EpicHeroes713 2 жыл бұрын

The baby: *give me your $10* Me who has 27 cents in my wallet: **nervous sweating**

@RinoSan 3 жыл бұрын

me to my friends: "hey guys, lend me $10 and I'll flip it for you by the weekend." friends: "what? how? no thank you." me: "okay, your loss." -proceeds to exploit MMO RMT communities

@Evtrex13 3 жыл бұрын

remember when twitter got hacked and people were giving out money to runescape scammers

@hawkdracano3840 3 жыл бұрын

proceeds to engage in illegal RuneScape activity

@jordantucker3014 3 жыл бұрын

Guys I think we need to get Micheal to pay Kevin more. He keeps mentioning his wallet is only 10 dollars. This is a cry for help!

@maxiemaxwell550 3 жыл бұрын

Just because a prospect is expressible in words does not mean it is possible. The mugger returning $1 billion after being allowed to take a $10 Walet is just as unlikely as that mugger being able to summon Galactus to eat the Earth, or stabbing the victim with a sword made out of shadows.

@SamB-gn7fw 3 жыл бұрын

Good video!

@AverytheCubanAmerican 3 жыл бұрын

That doll’s got a point, you know

@michdax7627 2 жыл бұрын

I'm not sure if it's me or the system but the audio and the video were out of sync as for the thought experiment pick the doll up and throw it as far as you can while saying, "NO"!!

@stormlord1984 2 жыл бұрын

It's unsyced for me as well

@johnnylucas1249 2 жыл бұрын

@@stormlord1984 me too

@IABITVpresents 3 жыл бұрын

the other Vsauces being more active than the main one... I'm glad now he has more people on team lol

@panferno3926 3 жыл бұрын

Great Video Say would you do a video bout the P-NP Problem or would that be too much to put it in a 10 minute video. And if you can`t could you then do one about when problems get too complicated to explain em in a rational amount of time?

@aadityachhitarka1938 3 жыл бұрын

Oh, they are watching you regardless...

@justjaein 3 жыл бұрын

...

@aiRCoft Жыл бұрын

The audio is like two seconds ahead of the video.... >.

@wavey61 3 жыл бұрын

One issue is this is a bad example. The more money the doll offers the less likely it'll even happen at all. If a kid came up to you and ask for $10, and said they'll pay you back $10 and 1 cent, that's much more likely to happen than the same kid that offers to pay back a billion dollars.

@queasyjuice1234 3 жыл бұрын

Hello Kevin! Just wanted to say that I love your content and you and your team do such a great job on all of your videos! Thanks for another great one

@thehubbabubba667 3 жыл бұрын

When you're so early you read comments about people complaining about people posting comments about being early

@tomadup1195 3 жыл бұрын

"Bloviating" Was that a Ludwig reference?

@75nomell90 3 жыл бұрын

Kevin apparently knows English 2

@nate_storm 3 жыл бұрын

i mean it’s an english word...

@lxjk.01 3 жыл бұрын

It's not even the voice, but that doll's knees are pure nightmare fuel!

@MCredstoningnstuff 3 жыл бұрын

Expected value calculations only apply when you do things a considerable number of times. The calculation you should do here to determine if it's a good deal isn't the expected value but the number of times you would need to get mugged by the doll for it to be likely that you would get paid off at least once. If you can expect to get mugged enough, then you can use expected value, but if not, you should assume that you would lose which is more likely.

@PapaFlammy69 3 жыл бұрын

@EvilRamin 3 жыл бұрын

@michaelsabeh8339 3 жыл бұрын

@ViratKohli-jj3wj 3 жыл бұрын

In Soviet Russia meteor doesn't hit people, people hit meteor

@manwithabagon 3 жыл бұрын

@soggyhasclips 3 жыл бұрын

@Snomadu 3 жыл бұрын

The baby is almost as scary as the math

@Arwen_xx 3 жыл бұрын

I feel like it also depends on how much $10 means to you. Like for a rich person, $10 is nothing, so they'll happily give it because they're not really hurt by losing it. Someone struggling to feed themselves is far likely to give the money, regardless of the unlikely potential payoff or value calculation.

@MrBaller4Life14 3 жыл бұрын

No we both don't have perfectly valid conclusions .... that's one of the problems that we have at the moment in the world. Having a good reason for being wrong doesn't make your conclusion valid. This was as always still a great vid, love your work.

@theunknown4677 3 жыл бұрын

Hello guys! This is not a mugging!

@marcusshabangu8252 3 жыл бұрын

Sorry I'm broke 🤷🏾‍♂️

@hot_dog_water2437 3 жыл бұрын

i feel like im early cuz i see all the bots

@sravanthch2879 3 жыл бұрын

How do we know it's a bot by seeing a comment? Is anything like that even there?

@hot_dog_water2437 3 жыл бұрын

@@sravanthch2879 yep. Weird fonts, weird words weird stuff.

@sravanthch2879 3 жыл бұрын

@@hot_dog_water2437 right

@academicalisthenics 3 жыл бұрын

I wouldn't take the bet either because I could only "expect" to break even if these events kept happening frequently enough. For Instance, if I know the probability of being mugged to be 1:100.000 (with the same, single jackpot) I would estimate the probability of encounters accumulated over my lifetime to be about the same order of magnitude as "once in a lifetime" I can't possibly expect to break even in a hundred lifetimes, that's probably where the strange gut feeling of "sure loss" came from. Oh, and keep up the frequency of your amazing videos 😉

@veni1 3 жыл бұрын

expected value only works if you have unlimited trys, if you dont then using it is simply a mistake. The correct rule would be that the gamble is only worth it if you have as much money as it costs to play times the odds of winning.

@shadowpuppet2790 3 жыл бұрын

I wouldn’t play a money game either

@n4tur414 3 жыл бұрын

Fun fact: all the dislikes come from people who have been mugged by babies

@fn9869 3 жыл бұрын

omg two uploads in a week

@iKonzerva 3 жыл бұрын

This video is all out there

@psychicmewtwo5438 2 жыл бұрын

2:58 squid game

@KorporalKReephdmkiytrecv69 3 жыл бұрын

So this is the level of insanity that Kevin is at right now because of no nut November

@bertaroo 3 жыл бұрын

It’s December tho

@cl0p38 3 жыл бұрын

Hey, he is okay now

@ericstoverink6579 3 жыл бұрын

Here's a question that might be interesting for one of you guys to discuss: "Those who fail to remember history are doomed to repeat it". It sounds like sage advice; but, is this actually true? Are there any real-world examples, or counter examples?

@tinyguy9398 3 жыл бұрын

It's like people who play the lottery when the maximum payout is $1B but refuse to play it when it is only $10M. For some reason, a decision to waste a $1 on a lottery ticket changes when the probabilistic odds of winning remain the same. You are after all choosing a set of six numbers from the same population of numbers. Yet the increased payout for whatever reason factors into a person's decision when both $10M and $1B would probably have the same outcome in that they would likely be set for life either way compared to their current economic position.

@taragnor 9 ай бұрын

The lottery is winnable. Sure, you'll probably lose, but you can calculate the odds of winning and the expected value. There would get to be a tipping point where it's a worthwhile investment, at least mathematically.