Rate cuts commence in June 2024, taking 6-8 months to complete. A potential crash, if any, might occur by March 2025. The soft landing narrative is gaining traction, making this big recession everyone is calling for less likely. With $1 million from a business sale, I'm seeking profitable investment opportunities for the next 3 years.

Interesting how over 2% inflation has been a concern when central banks and the Fed begin to hike interest rates. I consider the rising interest rate to be a very serious issue since it will undoubtedly cause more investors to withdraw their money from the stock market. But then I'm still aware of certain investors that continue to earn over $365,000. Wish I could accomplish that.

I see the rising interest rate as a very big problem, as more investors will definitely pull out more money from the Stock market. This might have worked when I was still invest-ing with a couple thousand dollars, but it is more difficult now to decide whether to pull out more than $365k from my port-folio. I know some inves-tors still make that despite the strong bear market. In wish I could pull that feat

Market declines, soaring inflation, a significant increase in interest rates by the Fed, and rising Treasury yields all point to additional losses for portfolios this quarter. How can I profit from the present market turbulence? I'm still debating whether to sell my $125k ETF/Growth Stock portfolio.

Interest should stay up for longer.

The FED missed an opportunity. They should have raised rates. It would have cooled the huge speculative bubble in equities. Instead we face a Volcker scenario with no way out since it will explode US debt and lock in massive budget deficits long term.

Do you think it's a good time to consider selling some stocks, or is it better to hold onto them for the long term? I’m considering rebalancing my $2M portfolios, So I'm curious about the best strategies to invest this year.

March was pushed out to June, June will be pushed out to the fall. Next thing you know it’s 2025 and no rate cuts.

The US government cannot afford the current interest rates on its government debt. If US interest rates stay that high for a while it will be the mother of all debt crises.

Absolutely love it!!! I'll have to be financially stable in every sense before purchasing my first supercar. The best thing to do with your money is to invest rightly because money left saving will end up with no returns

Why is there the expectation that interest rates will go down? Interest rates now are near their long term average of 5.42 percent from 1971 until 2023. With interest rates near zero for so long the Fed did not have "any bullets in its guns" to use to further lower interest rates to stimulate the economy. Now it has the ability to stimulate the economy but probably will not waste lowering interest rates unless growth falls and unemployment rises. Folks need to get used to long term interest rates in the 4% to 6% range. Addicting people to near zero interest rates for so many years was an aberration and morally questionable.

I was advised to diversify my portfolio among several assets such as stocks and bonds since this can protect my portfolio for retirement. I'm seeking to invest $200K across markets but don't know where to start.

Whoever is doing your charts for you, needs a raise asap!!

America is currently plagued by the hydra-headed evil duo of inflation and recession. The worst part about this recession is that consumers are racking up credit card debt. In April alone, credit card debt went up 20% while rates have doubled in a year. Inflation is so high that consumers are literally taking debt for basic life necessities. Collapse has indeed begun..

The fin-Market;s have underperformed the U.S. economy as fear of inflation hammers the prices of stock;s and bonds. My portfoliio of $750k is down to $592k any recommendation;s to scale up my return;s during this crash will be highly appreciated.

Its crazy that just the INTEREST is a trillion dollars a year

There is no reason to cut interest rates just yet. Based on the performance of inflation in the 70s and 80s, cutting interest rates too early could cause inflation to go right the way back up if we haven’t gotten to a low enough point yet. It’s worth the wait, based on the historical data.

The rising interest rate can surely control inflation, but won't prevent erosion of the eroding purchasing power of the US dollar. I have learnt my lesson this time. The banks can't be making money off my money, while inflation eats into it. I have set aside 650k to invest in the stock market now, since that keeps up with inflation, but I don't know how to get started.

it is interesting how we are starting to see more discussion of using the 1970 inflation metrics, because, by those measures, inflation is still wildly out of control.

Zero rates are how they handle catastrophes. Amazing that's become the expectation.

Talking about the 1970s they had to put the rate at 14%. So we can’t compare to that. They need to raise the current rate much much higher and let it sit until it comes down.

Yup. We’ll know the system is truly corrupt if they lower rates soon.

"When the economy is doing too well, prices go up" No. Prices tend to naturally go down in a thriving economy, via technological progress and mass production that easily scales to the demand, which can only grow so much per unit of time. An iPhone 3G now costs a few bucks, imagine how much would a Snickers bar cost before the industrialization of food. Prices go up when the government throws freshly printed cash at the economy, at a much higher rate than its output, causing more units of currency chasing the same amount of goods and services. Inflation is NOT a natural symptom of ANY thriving economy. It's the product of Keynesian economies on overdrive, where economic growth is driven by national debt and inflation of the money supply.

Good video - when are you gonna do the exact same video for the Australian economy/inflation environment?

Great video, very well done!

Thanks for a great video, would massive layoff cause the interest rate to go down? There has been a lot of recent reports indicating the Tech industry is going thru layoffs.

Problem is that Powell is trying to appease the stock market at the same time, so in his talks he does the walking on egg shells narrative. The Fed shouldn't be trying to appease investors minds that's not the job of the Fed, but its obviously the case.

I stand on the fact that recession is pushed by Uncle Joe and his crew, even though i own a $230,000 portfolio, high inflation is stressing me about retirement. Looking for short term profitable investment opportunities to supplement my monthly income.

It's really too bad that JP doesn't jawbone Congress to reduce spending, to reduce the need to inject more money (via debt) into the economy.

5:04 Core inflation high is really bad. It's just not come down significantly. Basically energy prices corrected since mid 2022 and it appears they are now in a new uptrend, that can easily send headline CPI back higher than the nearly 4% core number.

Odd making this video without having watched the meeting itself lol

Nobody gets it, massive uncontrolled government spending is the problem. Billions upon billions of $$$ on non-essential "pet projects". Something you failed to mention.

This will age badly

A really good assessment of the current state of affairs. Completely agree. The question is, when will JP break it to the market that rates are Not coming down this year?

They just borrowed another $1.2 trillion and it was $1 Trillion a hundred days before. There borrowing more each time because the interest payments are compounding. As soon as the deficit hits $50 Trillion there repayments will be $216 billion dollars per hour . . . W T F !

Excellent vid.. keep up the good work lad

Thank you, this was a great video.

Thank you for this info!

Until the Federal Government stops spending and creating money faster than the higher interest rates are pulling it out of the economy, inflation is going to continue to be flat. Either rates need to go higher or deficit spending has got to go down. Prepare for no cuts this year.

With all debts mathematically impossible to repay, does that not make the currency worthless.

Very well explained!!

Thank you for going over the history of inflation and the causes of inflation. Very helpful!

Gary Stevenson has a much better take on inflation IMO. The general public didnt spend more when governments around the world were putting that money out. It was a hold over because those people were furloughed or laid off entirely. All of that money eventually ends up in the hands of the businesses and business owners - and because the govts didnt put out a profiteering tax to withdraw it from circulation, the rich got a massive wealth injection from those govts effectively. Its greedflation. The wealthy can spend more, and so they raise prices while those of us at the bottom end of the scale can't really afford those increases.

Beautiful Video! I learned a great deal from this. Based on the data presented, it appears as though interest rates won’t be coming down any time soon. Too much USD in the system. Especially with countries moving away from the USD. will make it all the more complicated especially down the road.

One item I buy at my local grocery store increased in price by 21% last week. Up over 100% in last 2 yrs. Of course I did not buy. Inflation is way higher than these nuts admitted. IMHO

Good video. Very enlightening.

I think FED should increase interest rates.. we are not seeing the economy slowing down.. rent and property are still too high compared to salary. People are still buying homes. Theres more buyers than sellers.

"We want to see more data". Shelter is a lagging indicator (C) Sasha. If the interest rate is reduced, then shelter will come down, thus effecting the whole CPI rate.

Balanced and thoughtful analysis. Well done.

Barry Sternlicht has some interesting views on this matter worth paying attention to. You have to look at the underlying components of inflation, how they are determined/reported, and the risks. The biggest skew is from housing which he argues is a flawed statistic and we’re likely to see some real challenges ahead based on his data.

Spot on.

Compare to the 1970, the US is printing a crazy amount of money undermining the high rates that history might not be a good indicator.

but have we ever been doing too well?? it's such a scam.

The mistake was 0% rates for over a decade. the damage has done. there is no recovering from this.

thanks for the explanation

Can you include other charts as well? Recession chart, price of oil chart, etc? 6:38

Good video! New subscriber.

Very informative and I agree with the sentiment at the end.

The inflation is that affecting people the most are energy. Food. Insurance. And they are removing those from the numbers. They need to make sure those are in there at 2% as well.

Nicely made video, I specially liked the highlighted chart , very clear to understand.

Great charts. Crystal clear commentary.👍👍👍

Well said .

They aren’t lowering mortgauge rates yet because so many homes are being built and closing on large loans at high rates , helping the banks out and not the little guy once again. If they would just lower one point now it could be 200-400 less a month for us first time home buyers . I was hoping they were gonna drop it for me but I guess not . Really let me down , be nice if they could lower one point in next few weeks really would help Americans , single person paying 3000/month for first home interest over the term of a 350k home equals 940k nearly 600k in interest over 30 year term loan , but there is a trick to dodge that interest with line of credit and pay bit payments down on principle lowering that interest by hundreds of thousands of dollars . Still isn’t easy though best of luck to folks out there, banks making big bucks poorly manage it and get bailed out unreal

It’s been getting worse since 2008's GFC because they did fix anything. They only managed to make it far worse with mountains of more debt that was the cause of the problem in the first place.

Great vid !!! do a same analysis for your country "Australia"

We all know this is political as we know that two months of inflation and stable economic activity is making federal reserve's mandate contradicting itself if they indeed begin the cutting cycle. I don't know why we're so addicted to growth in a exponential manner and using a percentage as a gage is just flat out irresponsible. We should be using a linear approach and shift the upper bound when it's fine to do so but big companies always argue that smaller businesses should keep up or fail but we know that causes insane imbalances that we see continue to widen.

pls do more videos abour macro economics

Nice vid

You should do more macroeconomics vids bud! This is great work ⭐️💫

fr bro ur on point

Can dollar breaking out can crash market?

Keep the macro videos coming pls

“Confidence, confidence, confidence” - The Great Monetary Soothesayer

Great content, as usual

The main inflation statistic that is holding headline inflation up is *shelter* the a data point that is *directly* affected by the interest rate and is also a lagging indicator so the longer they leave the interest rate unchanged the longer it will take for shelter to drop You'd think the guy incharge of setting the rates would analyse the data but for how he speaks and acts he clearly just looks at the headline figure

Absolutely correct in your analysis, it's weird how people don't look at the big picture. Disregard FOMO, stay strong, keep a bit of cash, when reality hits people stocks will go on sale! #thisisnottimingthemarket

Imagine if inflation ain’t high, that the coffee (cold brew) I buy. Used to be $5.79 two-three weeks ago and now is at $5.99. And months before that, it was $5.69… plus, I live in NJ. 😢😂

Great content, as usual, Brandon and team.

Like a pendulum, maybe waves that swing back and forth are the nature of things. People like to think they have control, but maybe we don't, or not as much as we think.

I heard a good video on current social security in usa? Can you cover this in detail or no ? Thanks. Great video

Methinks June, July & Sept. Electoral considerations. 😊

Economic investigator Frank G Melbourne Australia is following this very serious and informative content cheers Frank 😊

JP has never once said he'd do 3 rate cuts, annalist said that. he's just been giving speculators maybes to something he never promised to keep things stable. if he cut rates, it would jepradise the dollar's value and i don't see him doing that just to protect people's portfolios

It's not *JUST* because of the volatility that we exclude food/energy when trying to evaluate underlying inflation. It's also that food/energy tend to be priced predominantly by the GLOBAL market and aren't good measures of what's going on DOMESTICALLY Also, PCE is the inflation measure that matters, particularly Core PCE. With Core PCE in the 2.x%, a Fed rate in the mid 4.x% would still be restrictive and putting downward pressure on the economy, so they have room to cut. Power keeps saying this, and KZfaq people just don't seem to understand

The Fed has a tough job, Powell has been consistent and said that they will "Likely be higher for longer..." They are data dependent so I'm sure there is data that they have that they aren't sharing, maybe going higher than 5.5% would have broken something. Right now it seems like they stopped raising rates a little bit too soon, but it's easy to be a back-seat driver. Unfortunately Core PCE will go higher, rents are going to increase because everyone's tax assessments went up which results in higher property taxes. Property owners aren't going to eat the increase, they are going to pass it on to renters.

Excellent take on this.

I agree with your video. The Fed should keep interest rates high. In fact I I don't think the inflation is coming down unless the FED keeps the rates high or even raises them slightly.

Can you make the same analysis about europe ?

It is very misleading to show the chart of Indlation and Interest rate and say Interest Rates caused inflation to go down. It's at best a very poor use of common sense. Inflation cooled down, as the rates weren't even high. It is well known that Interest rate hike take between 1 and 2 years to show up in economic metrics. Inflation going down from 9% to 5% had almost nothing to do with Interest rates.

You did a great job on this video. Keep up the good work.

Thx for great video. First time seeing your material, well done!!! It's a rare point of view online and I believe you are right. The only reason Powell is dangling that carrot of lower rates is because of the Presidential election. He'd prefer having Biden as his boss rather than Trump, the latter having critized him heavily. As you pointed out so well, between inflation still being sticky and even increasing again we can expect a 75 basis points (the 3 small cuts u mentioned) decrease at best and most likely less. I was in University mid 1980's and I believe a Savings Acct was paying over 12% interest (around 15% from memory) 1970's inflation stuck around for a long time. Mortgages must have been expensive, but at least housing didn't cost a fortune like today. Can u imagine how catastrophic that would be today? Powell doesn't want that as his legacy and I now believe rates could stay higher for longer than the market expects, unless Powell has seen signs the economy will break down and he'll be able to deliver those cuts. Time will tell

Raising interest rates even once will cause the market to drop. I believe Japan recently raised rates. I agree the market is pricing in rate cuts that may not happen. So be prepared.

The fact is, with the share of dollar based global trade reducing and shifting towards one-to-one currency exchange trading, the demand for USD in foreign countries is reducing. If the fed interest rate is reduced, foreign markets will not buy US treasury bonds. Leading to all the bonds only being purchased locally, driving up money supply within USA and resulting in inflation. In the past, when USA reduced interest rates and printed more money, the inflation used to be spread across the whole world. Not anymore. Good luck trying to balance your (US govt) books without printing money, the way the rest of the world has been functioning forever.

In '70 the US debt was irrilevant, so the FED doesn't have the same freedom it had back then...

Makes sense to let interest rates stay elevated until we see a more tempered inflation near the 2% range. The repeat of the 1970s runaway inflation can be scary if the FED jumps the gun too soon. BTW thanks for explaining this in simple terms.

Rates need to go up 7% would be good natural normal or we become Venezuela. Bread 10 dollars a load.

4:07 Yes. Inflation is sticky. Month over month, it's looking worse. It bottomed autumn 2023 basically. Second wave coming and Swiss central bank cuts rates and so will the Fed. So inflation up, up up. Economy down, down down. Stock market probably up, up, up on easy money and expanding war.

Keeping it at the current rate is killing us. The average weekly grocery bill is 300 dollars in Houston. He needs to increase the rates. Get to 6%.

I had the firm belief that inflation would continue falling fast under the assumption that 1) insufficient supply was a major cause of inflation, and 2) there is a significant delay in inflation coming down as a response to rate hikes. Regardless of how significant supply chain disruptions have remained as a cause of inflation, your video clearly illustrates that 1) this factor is not as volatile as I thought and it will take time to be resolved (if it ever is), and 2) the delay between rate hikes and inflation coming down seems to be negligible. I can see a possibility for this tight time correlation between rate hikes and inflation coming down being just a coincidence though. It would mean that inflation coming down could be caused mainly by an increase in supply, which would leave the effect of rate hikes free to have an effect sometime in the future (thus indeed there being a delay between rate hikes and inflation coming down). In any case, a few months ago I was expecting inflation to fall to extremely low or even negative levels. It clearly does not seem to be remotely probable right now in the USA, but I do fear it might happen in Europe due to weaker demographics and consumption, a weaker economic context, and insufficient supply being a bigger component of inflation to begin with. I fully expect the ECB to rush to cut rates in the coming months. We'll see how true or how comical this comment turns out to be.

Per usual, kick ass video Brandon!