What Happens When a Country Defaults on Its Debt?

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The Plain Bagel

The Plain Bagel

Жыл бұрын

This video is sponsored by NOA - use the following link for a month free of their awesome news narration service: subscription.newsoveraudio.co...
Country defaults have been in the news lately, but what actually happens when a government can no longer pay off their debts? We dive into this strange topic in today's video.
If you'd like to support the channel, you can do so at / theplainbagel :)
DISCLAIMER:
This channel is for education purposes only and does not constitute financial advice - Richard is not responsible for investment actions taken by viewers. Please seek out a registered advisor if you require assistance (while Richard is a registered portfolio manager at WDS Investment Management, he does not provide advice through The Plain Bagel, which is not affiliated with his employer).

Пікірлер: 592
@ThePlainBagel
@ThePlainBagel Жыл бұрын
Happy Friday everyone! Use the following link to get a month free of NOA's premium membership: subscription.newsoveraudio.com/subscribe?offerId=plain_bagel_stdpx_1mt&KZfaq_Influencer&TPB&
@AlexanderTheGoodEnough
@AlexanderTheGoodEnough Жыл бұрын
Interesting. I always thought that debt collection is what Santa did the other 364 days of the year to pad his Christmas fund.
@jeffharbaugh8683
@jeffharbaugh8683 Жыл бұрын
See the November 2015 National Geographic magazine for crop yield decreases due to Climate Change. FREE movie on KZfaq "National Geographic Collapse" about the future (Peak Oil). The oil companies knew about Climate Change long before the general public, people aware of this crises are in a desperate struggle for money because of what the public doesn't yet know...Peak Oil is coming; How to survive the worldwide starvation crisis caused by Peak Oil; "What can I do"? According to the experts you should: 1A. Garden with sustainable agriculture techniques (less pesticides, herbicides and fertilizer (organic & permaculture)). B. Learn to preserve, and learn the spoil dates of different storage conditions, learn how to check for spoilage (give a little to one healthy person (not the elderly or a child) if they don't get sick...give more to another...if they don't get sick...you should be ok. 2. Buy food and manufactured goods made locally 3. Pay down debt 4. Learn skills that will be useful in the future and make friends that have useful skills you don't have (related to providing food, water, shelter, and medical care: A necessary skill is organic/permaculture gardening/farming). Very important: medicinal plant and medical skills are the best way to ensure your survival. All others will gladly sacrifice their life to protect your life, so you are around to use your medical knowledge to keep their families alive. 5. I recommend, if you can...to invest some money into technologies to increase the "carrying capacity" of the planet (high risk investments); A. decrease negative environmental impact, B. alternatives for our food system input to improve production, C. alternatives to our current living arrangements, D. alternatives to our plastics industry, E. alternatives to disaster capitalism/socialism/communism F. "Savior Technologies" (ie faster-than-light travel), "Game Changer" technologies (ie Cold Fusion Energy) & "Delaying Technologies" (ie deep sea drilling technologies). 6. I also recommend you inform and prepare your family, friends, and others. It is best to initially suggest people have an emergency kit... for any emergency such as flood, earthquake, tornado, hurricane, loss of electricity due to a winter storm. Then, if the friend or relative puts together a disaster kit, tell them about #7A/B/C 7A. THE community based organization to mitigate Climate Change and Peak Oil is: www.transitionus.org/ (For non USA; transitionnetwork.org/) 7B. The FREE movie "National Geographic Collapse" on KZfaq. 7C. Google "2052 free book download summary" www.2052.info - "A Global Forecast for the Next 40 Years". This website is a supplement to the book '2052-A Global Forecast for the Next Forty Years', written by Jørgen Randers. 7D. "Plan C: Community Survival Strategies for Peak Oil and Climate Change" Pat Murphy 7E. www.goodreads.com Three of my Facebook pages were removed, "History Channel's Prophets of Doom Mike Ruppert" and my 2 pages on the "National Geographic Collapse movie" were removed. Never give up, your families lives are at stake! I anticipate worldwide deaths at 7 out of 8 (worldwide population of 8 billion people becoming 1 billion). The US is the number one military power, number 2 economy, and a net exporter of food. Thus, I anticipate 1 out 2 will die in the US. So you just need to be above average, easy to do if you know and accept Peak Oil. In the US I estimate all those that survive the collapse will endure severe psychological and/or physical trauma. If SHTF; the Appalachian and Rocky Mountains will probably have mountain passes and bridges closed. An expert in the field of Peak Oil (Liam Nelson) felt people would willingly go into FEMA camps vs. not having any food or water. I believe it is best to consider living between the Rocky and Appalachian Mountains well away from the southern coast and especially away from where Central and South Americans will travel into the US (roads will be made obstacles and the desert is a natural obstacle). Thus, consider the northern Midwest US whith access to water (and the locals will accept you). Avoid being near nuclear reactors since the government may not shut them down. Note; many rich in the US are stockpiling resources in New Zealand to flee there (verify with Google, using credible newspaper articles). Think of a return to the Middle Ages (but with trains) or the old Western US without horses. The leaders of Bug Out Locations will deter unrest by keeping some form of the US Constitution, at the minimum the Bill of Rights. Without a Bill of Rights, history will repeat- We will have a repeat of "Game of Thrones" where the leaders constantly face assassination and betrayal. Try Facebook pages; 1. Peak Oil 2. Increasing the Carrying Capacity of the Earth 3. Organized Effort to Maximize Peak Population - OE-MP 4. Platue/Peak Population 5. Peak Oil Loners United
@SauceChef
@SauceChef Жыл бұрын
How to colonise a country in the modern world: 1. Lend money to a failing country 2. (Optional: if it doesn’t fail) silently trigger their economic collapse 3. Become the big brother and say “it’s ok, you don’t have to pay me back, but this time lemme do the work” 4. Bring in your state-owned corporations to fill in their industry 5. Increase in economic productivity 6. Citizens gain your trust 7. Overthrow government
@w花b
@w花b Жыл бұрын
8. Repeat
@Srbenda126
@Srbenda126 Жыл бұрын
Exactly what happened in my Serbia, only economic collapse was not silent. you don't even have to be silent if you have the mass media to push the narrative
@krillnyetheshrimpguy6152
@krillnyetheshrimpguy6152 Жыл бұрын
Hmm, sound like a certain country...
@carlroberts4540
@carlroberts4540 Жыл бұрын
Send.in.the.debth.collector.
@TheThreatenedSwan
@TheThreatenedSwan Жыл бұрын
Just don't be a third world country managed by extremely corrupt kleptocrats
@novamaster0
@novamaster0 Жыл бұрын
Obviously the country should just get a second job, deliver pizzas on the weekend, needs to have a garage sale, and just use the debt snowball method to pay off their debts and build the psychology of being fiscally responsible
@xenthia
@xenthia Жыл бұрын
Lol
@effctoocool9763
@effctoocool9763 Жыл бұрын
Cancel netflix 😂
@graham1034
@graham1034 Жыл бұрын
Cut down on that avocado toast
@joshlanders
@joshlanders Жыл бұрын
Countries these days have no work ethic. /s
@xiphoid2011
@xiphoid2011 Жыл бұрын
actually, those methods (get a second job = raise taxes, fiscally responsible = cut military/welfare spending, snowball = pay off the highest rate loan first) all would be sound advice.
@idontliketoinvest
@idontliketoinvest Жыл бұрын
Not sure the Russian default would be a perfect example, as it was mainly due to sanctions by the western world more like a forced default. Whereas Sri Lankan default is more like a true default as it was a direct cause of the country's poor economic performance and management.
@iloveprivacy8167
@iloveprivacy8167 Жыл бұрын
The Sri Lankan crisis was immediately precipitated by factors beyond their control, though (spike in food/fuel prices due to war). The Russians made their own bed, and now it sucks to lie in it. Sure, they thought it would go better for them: they'd roll over 🇺🇦 in 3 days, and it would all be fait accompli before any serious sanctions were imposed - but "they fought back too effectively! 😭" isn't a very compelling argument.
@currentaf8455
@currentaf8455 Жыл бұрын
I think here sl govt was unprepared for uncertainty while russian govt being resource rich could still pay it off. Besides both countries were/are unhappy or unsatisfied with their government.
@wafercrackerjack880
@wafercrackerjack880 Жыл бұрын
Why did they get the sanctions? Because they went to war. Did they know they will get sanctioned if they go to war? Hell yes. It was not forced, Russia knows being sanctioned and defaulting is where they're going to.
@rbayat108
@rbayat108 Жыл бұрын
I was just going to say the same thing. The Russian default occurred because their funds were frozen due to sanctions. Not a true default, they had the money to pay.
@wnsjimbo2863
@wnsjimbo2863 Жыл бұрын
it does not matter , they dont have the dollars to pay its on them
@adrianliew8076
@adrianliew8076 Жыл бұрын
Hey Richard, just want to say thanks for all the genuine videos you have been sharing for the past! Appreciate the way you present the topics with your professionalism, not overcomplicated layman term, and with a sprinkle of bagel humor. Keep up the great work!
@SamuelBSR
@SamuelBSR Жыл бұрын
0:26 You actually can. Russia did not default on its debt, it was not allowed to pay instead. Russia pushed a money transaction and it had enough money but the transaction was declined by the Western banking system. In order to pay back, Russia suggested that the borrowers get paid in Rubbles directly bypassing any artificial restriction. So, everybody who wanted their money back probably got them directly from Russia.
@dannybeane2069
@dannybeane2069 Жыл бұрын
Yeah just good luck going into Russia, getting your money, and then leaving the country with all of your limbs, fingers, and/or genitals.
@SamuelBSR
@SamuelBSR Жыл бұрын
@@dannybeane2069 we are talking about institutional loans. Some foreign institutional investor bought Russian debt, they can get payments directly from Russia avoiding western infrastructure. There is no reason to go to Russia to accomplish it.
@David-fj5lz
@David-fj5lz Жыл бұрын
But how does the Rubble equate to the dollar in the debt repayment?
@Anon-jt1kl
@Anon-jt1kl Жыл бұрын
@@David-fj5lz that’s why Russia and China and many countries are ditching the dollar. They no longer want to be held responsible for the US poor financial decisions. They are introducing their reserve currency in august while the us will default on its debt in June (if they don’t raise the debt ceiling)
@aycc-nbh7289
@aycc-nbh7289 11 ай бұрын
But what use do rubles have outside of Russia?
@Fenix-fg6cs
@Fenix-fg6cs Жыл бұрын
Thanks a lot! I would love a more in-depth video about this topic, like a history of government defaulting, why it happened, etc
@idraote
@idraote Жыл бұрын
IMF are financial sharks. The miracle is that countries are actually able to recover after getting IMF """help""".
@Kenxclout
@Kenxclout Жыл бұрын
I have the best debts in the world! Every single one of them is Outstanding!
@uxvocabclub
@uxvocabclub Жыл бұрын
🥁🥁⭐️
@seneca983
@seneca983 Жыл бұрын
Haha!
@qwertyuiop-cu2ve
@qwertyuiop-cu2ve Жыл бұрын
Pretty much comes down to it that the most you can do is to not lend anymore to that party ever again. You still lost your money and they can live happily ever after if they can manage without your cooperation.
@CaedenV
@CaedenV Жыл бұрын
The new delivery is, as always fresh and warm! Exactly the way I love my plain bangles!
@TheMrFishnDucks
@TheMrFishnDucks Жыл бұрын
Great video. Very informative. Keep up the good work.
@Max-ve5tu
@Max-ve5tu Жыл бұрын
The story about unregistered swimming pools in Greece goes to illustrate how selfish the Greek population was and how incompetent the government was at collecting those taxes.
@wanderingthewastes6159
@wanderingthewastes6159 Жыл бұрын
Yeah, how dare they no give their hard worked money so the public machine could eat 30% of it and the absolutely rotten Greek politicians another 20%.
@WellBattle6
@WellBattle6 Жыл бұрын
@@robertmusil1107 At least France paid for the machine learning software to identify them. Greece just spent all their time holding elections.
@Max-ve5tu
@Max-ve5tu Жыл бұрын
@@GeorgeWashingtonLaserMusket What if everyone starts to think like that? Then nobody wants to pay taxes, sales taxes, highway fees, etc. Just pay what you are supposed to instead of trying to trick the system. There is enough for everyone to go around if you aren’t so greedy.
@pebblepod30
@pebblepod30 Жыл бұрын
@@Max-ve5tu This video create made a mistake here. In Greece,federal taxes pay for spending, the Greek govt does not have a central bank that creates Euros, and they have no power at all over ECB that does. That is completely different to the US, where FEDERAL taxea do not pay for govt spending. Think about it. It is VERY VERY different when a Govt borrows in a foreign currency it does not create, vs a currency it does create & their central bank cannot say no. Then its "borrowing money from yourself in a currency you create". See The Deficit Myth by Stephanie Kelton for more info
@wanderingthewastes6159
@wanderingthewastes6159 Жыл бұрын
so they spent money to suck more money? Boy let me tell you
@hendrikheim5665
@hendrikheim5665 Жыл бұрын
Russia one was a bit silly of an example, as their debt is in a limbo, they could pay it but the recipent doesn't want it.
@Nope_handlesaretrash
@Nope_handlesaretrash Жыл бұрын
This, Russia is willing and able, it's US shenanigans at play.
@dean_l33
@dean_l33 Жыл бұрын
But it's climbing, shenanigan or not
@hendrikheim5665
@hendrikheim5665 Жыл бұрын
@@dean_l33 What is?
@potatofuryy
@potatofuryy Жыл бұрын
They want to pay in the wrong currency lol. That doesn't count.
@Srbenda126
@Srbenda126 Жыл бұрын
@@potatofuryy No they wanted to pay in original currency but it was frozen. THen they wanted to pay in rubles, they didn't want it neither
@agustincarrasco5372
@agustincarrasco5372 Жыл бұрын
The World Bank and the IMF both started from the Bretton Woods conference in the 40’s, which came about because the U.S dollar, as a result of war-fleeing European gold, had so many gold reserves backing it. Inevitably, however, inflationary Keynsian policies-which the Bretton Woods Agreement was founded on-plagued the U.S dollar and, much like Britain during WW1, the U.S defaulted on its gold IOUs and Nixon went off the gold standard in the 70’s. The IMF and the World Bank are essentially American and fully backed by dollars. So, when you control the global reserve currency-and with it, all these international funds/banks (e.g., IMF and the World Bank)-it begs the question: what happens when the biggest debtor of all defaults?
@simonfrancis110
@simonfrancis110 Жыл бұрын
worldwide recession
@Madafaca6969
@Madafaca6969 Жыл бұрын
"oopsie woopsie we did a fucky wucky also, we have like a million soldierd so chill the fuck out" something like that I imagine
@got2kittys
@got2kittys Жыл бұрын
Financially, the waste hits the air mover.
@howardbaxter2514
@howardbaxter2514 Жыл бұрын
@@got2kittys society will essentially get the FUBAR treatment
@TheSuperBoyProject
@TheSuperBoyProject Жыл бұрын
Fleeing european gold is one hell of a way to say looted German gold by Germany's opponents.
@earthling_parth
@earthling_parth Жыл бұрын
Thanks for covering this situation. Highly appreciate the new delivery method too 👏
@julianheinrich7567
@julianheinrich7567 Жыл бұрын
Good video. Actually informative and the ad really did not bother me at all. Well done. I actually learned something.
@ryanendoh8750
@ryanendoh8750 Жыл бұрын
Can you do a follow up video on the implications to stocks and bonds held by investors (in both debtor and creditor nations) when a country defaults? Thumbs up if you'd like this too.
@akapoka8732
@akapoka8732 Жыл бұрын
I’d imagine the situation is a tough one 😂
@Velumbra
@Velumbra Жыл бұрын
That'd be pretty interesting. I hope buddy or somebody for that matter covers the topic.
@phuocluong7974
@phuocluong7974 Жыл бұрын
The answer to your question would depends on how the country plans to get out of the default. There are three major ways in which a country can do that: 1. Get bailed out by other countries, this is usually coupled with austerity measures and some debt negotiation with creditors (Greece for example) 2. Print out money to pay the debt (USA will likely resort to this if it comes to it) 3. Refuse to pay the debt and risk unable to sell any further bonds in the future (Russia is kinda doing this right now)
@phuocluong7974
@phuocluong7974 Жыл бұрын
As for the consequences: 1. Stocks usually goes down due to lower government spending and higher taxes. Bonds prices goes down because most of them will not be paid back on their full face value. A lot of hedge funds actually made huge profits buying Greek bonds during the crisis and sell the bonds as the Greek economy starts to stabilise. 2. This would interesting one because money printing would lead to inflation. Which could either rocket boost stocks or make it goes down depends on the % of inflation. Bonds prices would go down because new bonds issued would have higher interest rates. 3. Stocks prices will depends on whether the economy is self-sufficient. If it’s not then stocks prices will collapse. If the economy is self-sufficient (little to no international trade), then stocks would likely remain the same. As for bond prices, the assumption would be that it is zero as government is not paying back debt and no one is willing to lend government money.
@saynotop2w
@saynotop2w Жыл бұрын
Sri Lanka politicians are living cushy in America while the nation is in turmoil.
@brujua7
@brujua7 Жыл бұрын
The video topic is very insteresting and well made, but it would have been awesome if you covered more previous examples of countries defaulting
@nirmaljayasuriya9472
@nirmaljayasuriya9472 Жыл бұрын
From Srilanka, thank you for covering this,
@me0101001000
@me0101001000 Жыл бұрын
Hope all of you will be alright, mate. Stay strong!
@williamcase426
@williamcase426 Жыл бұрын
don't die
@ep9203
@ep9203 2 ай бұрын
I was in Sri Lanka 2 years ago.. Beautiful place! I hope everything turns around for you guys..
@Robliss
@Robliss Жыл бұрын
Great vid. easy to digest. Cheers!
@JohnDoe-ph6if
@JohnDoe-ph6if Жыл бұрын
Really surprised me when you used the rare 'денюжку' instead of 'деньги') almost nailed the pronunciation too! Great video as always
@timtrainage
@timtrainage Жыл бұрын
Really? I thought it was awful
@alexkaramov6342
@alexkaramov6342 Жыл бұрын
​@@timtrainage ye Im russian and I didn't understand what he said
@JuanManuel-nm1ch
@JuanManuel-nm1ch Жыл бұрын
Me, an Argentinian guy watching this: rookies
@eeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee9531
@eeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee9531 3 ай бұрын
How is Javier Milei holding it down now?
@FrankBowness
@FrankBowness Жыл бұрын
Nice video Richard! Hope all is well
@brandobatel
@brandobatel Жыл бұрын
He moves his hands and arms so much. He must be Italian
@johnnewsom2059
@johnnewsom2059 Жыл бұрын
Russia was forced into default, Sri Lanka might be able to settle/restructure the debt with Japan.
@elonmusk8673
@elonmusk8673 Жыл бұрын
Hello giving out 5-10eth be part of the 5 lucky persons
@migooknamja
@migooknamja Жыл бұрын
Russia had the money to pay its debts, but the money was frozen/stolen and the media declared that they "defaulted". Lender: Hey Russia! You owe us money! Russia: Yes. Please give me your wire instructions Lender: We don't do business with Russians! Absolute Clown World- brought to you by the Democrats
@fueback6261
@fueback6261 Жыл бұрын
@@elonmusk8673 gimmw and dont ask for money 😂
@AtlasTheStoicSage
@AtlasTheStoicSage Жыл бұрын
I 😓always wondered about the United States and the trillion dollar of debt it owes. The U.S. raised the debt ceiling to avoid a default. There is also the federal reserve which prints more money 💵 to lend out to the government which may be a Ponzi scheme at an international level🫡🧨. 🤔 there are other factors contributing to a countries default on 💸 debt.
@grimaffiliations3671
@grimaffiliations3671 Жыл бұрын
?
@grimaffiliations3671
@grimaffiliations3671 Жыл бұрын
@@jwdory "way out" implies we're in trouble. We're not. The national debt is just a stockpile of US treasuries so it could just as easily be called the national savings account. And it's nonsense to say the US is close to insolvency
@grimaffiliations3671
@grimaffiliations3671 Жыл бұрын
@@jwdory No we're not. Schweikert is a politician with little understanding of how the federal government operates as a currency issuer
@gerwyntiberius1918
@gerwyntiberius1918 10 ай бұрын
Why can't a new government refuse to pay back the debts incurred by a prior government. Considering it was not them who took the loans but a prior government couldn't they claim they don't owe it back?
@samsonsoturian6013
@samsonsoturian6013 4 ай бұрын
Define new government. France counts every administration as a government. And no one knows. For instance, Communist China claims to own everything formally belonging to the Republic of China except its debt. However, the Russian Federation accepted ownership of all debts of the USSR
@peterbakare7399
@peterbakare7399 Жыл бұрын
love the delivery
@bestgirlie09
@bestgirlie09 Жыл бұрын
What's needed? Liquid cash. Everyone only has credit. If you have stacks of cash, you can capitalize on everyone's credit. A recession as bad it can be, provides good buying opportunities in the markets if you’re careful and it can also create volatility giving great short time buy and sell opportunities too. This is not financial advise but get buying.
@kozovski6628
@kozovski6628 Жыл бұрын
Cash can be king , but it depends on how much you have. I.E- if you have 300,000 cash when the house market crash occurs you will have a LOT more opportunities VS many others especially when people get foreclosed.
@AmandaMichelle.
@AmandaMichelle. Жыл бұрын
When the stock market rebounds, many investors may come to regret not investing in the red today. It's possible that this pricing will never be seen again. If you have a fantastic vision for it, there is always opportunity in the midst of chaos.
@hobbs252
@hobbs252 Жыл бұрын
I'm sure the idea of a Investment -Adviser might sound controversial to a few, but a new study by investopedia found out that demand for Invstment-Managers sky-rocketed by over 41.8% since the pandemic and based on firsthand encounter I can say for certain their skillsets are topnotch. I've raised over CAD580k within 18months from an initially stagnant portfolio worth CAD150K which was devoid of dividend stocks. These are the high-volume traders.
@hobbs252
@hobbs252 Жыл бұрын
As a finance guy I happened upon this thread to see if you were legit or full of ship. Your advice here is very solid. It’s actually the same playbook I’ve been using and have been telling my family to use. Nice work! Trying times are ahead, and good personal financial management will be very important to weather the storm. It would be very a innovative suggestion to look out for Financial Advisors like "Alysa Rebecca Reinoehl'' , who can help shape up your portfolio.
@Green-ed7wq
@Green-ed7wq Жыл бұрын
I just looked up Alysa Rebecca Reinoehl online and researched her accreditation. She seem very proficient, I wrote her detailing my Fin-market goals.
@weksauce
@weksauce Жыл бұрын
lol, "dingey, pojalsta" is more anglicized pronunciation of "money, please" in Russky
@TyroneMarcell
@TyroneMarcell Жыл бұрын
Another great video as always. I've learned so much from you. Top 5 favorite youtuber easy!
@lain11644
@lain11644 Жыл бұрын
Interesting video!
@jinchoung
@jinchoung Жыл бұрын
very informative. always wondered about this issue.
@vasilikimanoli9285
@vasilikimanoli9285 Жыл бұрын
In Greece we had to fid out all that information the hard way a few years ago...
@timbit827
@timbit827 Жыл бұрын
The video was the perfect length of time for me to wash dishes and learning something new.
@arzhenal1
@arzhenal1 Жыл бұрын
Nice new setup!
@HeavenHalos
@HeavenHalos Жыл бұрын
Very good video.
@nrpbrown
@nrpbrown Жыл бұрын
Very interesting video
@aemeromedia
@aemeromedia Жыл бұрын
cool post! 💪
@Raggart
@Raggart Жыл бұрын
Love the new format!
@warmpi
@warmpi Жыл бұрын
Would be curious as to what a creditor can do to enforce collection on debt, particularly with emerging market borrowers. Sounds like there's not much other than impact their sovereign credit rating and refuse to lend anymore money
@kingstonchi
@kingstonchi Жыл бұрын
My uncle Joe gets asked a lot, as he is a banker, and we heard him say a hundred time .. What happens when a loan is in default ? Three possible outcomes .. You get all the money back, or you get none of your money back, or you get something in between ..
@salardz
@salardz Жыл бұрын
Thank you for all of your videos; they have taught me a lot. I'm looking for an explanation. Why are governments in debt in the first place? They have all the resources! I understand that printing more money to pay it off is not a viable option. but I cannot figure out how it works. Can you please elaborate on this, or do you have any specific videos that you can recommend? Thank you very much.
@ilhamsyamsuddin
@ilhamsyamsuddin Жыл бұрын
Based on my limited understanding, It is because getting a loan is much easier and faster than collecting taxes.
@ryanprov
@ryanprov Жыл бұрын
I think a big part is that government deficit spending is very popular now - look at the US. Governments only tend to balloon in size unless something drastic happens. When you can borrow money to an almost limitless degree, and getting re-elected depends on how much you can promise to spend, it’s no wonder they borrow insane amounts. If you look at the history of government budget deficits, this era of insane borrowing is really a recent thing. The US for example had a budget surplus as recently as 2000 (not zero debt, just not adding to the debt). Previously, massive budget deficits really only showed up around the world wars. Now Covid has resulting in a crazy amount of spending but it’s not just that, we’ve been running at a significant deficit for the last 20 years or so. I think government borrowing is attractive for the same reason personal borrowing is: you get the money now. And when your interest rate is super low and there’s not much your creditors can do if you default, plus almost anyone will lend you money because you have a “perfect” credit score (despite only ever borrowing more and more), it kind of makes sense. If you could borrow $10M right now at 1% and you pay it back in 200 years or whenever you want, and if you default your creditor has to come pick a fight with your entire town to get anything back… wouldn’t you do it??
@salardz
@salardz Жыл бұрын
@@ThomasVWorm Make sense.Thanks for explanation, :)
@ryanprov
@ryanprov Жыл бұрын
@@ThomasVWorm yes makes sense but eventually you do have to do the "tax to pay back your debt" part 😁 you could still run a budget surplus doing this by just paying back your debt in the same year, or relatively quickly anyway. If you only ever borrow the debt will obviously just keep growing. And if you stretch it out over decades then a different generation of citizens end up paying the debt that the previous generation received a lot of the benefit for.
@Matt_History
@Matt_History Жыл бұрын
The inflation example is backwards, you showed deflation. If .5 M= $1 then the debt would effectively be cut in half and only be 500 million
@ThePlainBagel
@ThePlainBagel Жыл бұрын
You're right, thanks for highlighting. Working on fixing it now.
@sharan9993
@sharan9993 Жыл бұрын
@@ThePlainBagel Yeah u said it correctly but graphics was reversed 😂 Anyways as always grt video. Keep up the good work. Thank you for breaking down complex economic topics.
@bdubb5390
@bdubb5390 Жыл бұрын
He's propaganda. Probably cia, bit who knows.
@deebil8099
@deebil8099 Жыл бұрын
@@ThePlainBagel Please make a video on capital flight from a country and explain how it effects their currency and effect on their economy. You briefly mentioned this hypothetical situation in the video but I think this is an interesting and important macro economics topic now that the dollar is strong and a lot of other currencies are down.
@yuvrajguglani821
@yuvrajguglani821 Жыл бұрын
i just thought he was referring to debt denominated in foreign currency like a lot of the world debt outside the US is denominated in USD.
@rommaninc
@rommaninc Жыл бұрын
That Russian needs a bit more practice.
@chaffejcarraway
@chaffejcarraway Жыл бұрын
I was listening while driving and that car horn when you did the Canada thing scared me. I thought someone's blowing horn at me!
@victormugambi6083
@victormugambi6083 Жыл бұрын
Get home safe lol
@MitchRichard65
@MitchRichard65 Жыл бұрын
Same !!! Unpleasant lmao
@malcolmsilva
@malcolmsilva Жыл бұрын
Mostly algorithm comment, but also format is good 👍
@QwkDraw
@QwkDraw Жыл бұрын
DEPENDS! Is THAT country the 'reserve currency'? Well then, we're SCREWED!
@GeorgeKottakis
@GeorgeKottakis Жыл бұрын
I am Greek and I approve this video.
@DeedoDoop
@DeedoDoop Жыл бұрын
GERMANYYYYY
@logank444
@logank444 Жыл бұрын
Greece needs to get a second job and stop being poor
@grimaffiliations3671
@grimaffiliations3671 Жыл бұрын
greece messed up when it abandoned its currency to join the Euro
@GeorgeKottakis
@GeorgeKottakis Жыл бұрын
@@grimaffiliations3671 i agree
@chat-1978
@chat-1978 Жыл бұрын
There is no country that has benefited from IMF action unless there were drivers similar to Belgium. Biggest issue is that these saviours don't just drive sanitation of the country's organisation but force the sellout of expensive infrastructure that is usually of national interests. This is where the sovere6 principal is thrown out of the window. For example, Greece had to privatise all airports, some of them being military bases as well. Also the haircut was virtual. Practically the debt was moved in the future with some Troika creative economics. But I like your relative impartial approach in the topic. Probably you've already read it, but anyhow consider reading "the shock doctrine" for the IMF history.
@abubakarsharif5993
@abubakarsharif5993 Жыл бұрын
I wouldn’t make a comparison between Russian “default” with the SriLankan one. Russia had the money however due to sanctions were not able to give the payment in US dollar.
@kvikende
@kvikende Жыл бұрын
True but Russia still didn’t pay so for the owners of the debt russia defaulted.
@josephhoward4697
@josephhoward4697 Жыл бұрын
A default is a default.
@Matt_History
@Matt_History Жыл бұрын
@@kvikende not really. Most countries would disregard a default that's outside of a nation's control. Especially if they're an exporter. Like Russia
@TheManinBlack9054
@TheManinBlack9054 Жыл бұрын
@@josephhoward4697 well, those are two different kinds of default: a technical one and an actual one
@mynameismynameis666
@mynameismynameis666 Жыл бұрын
@@josephhoward4697 who decided the default? rating agencies? how trustworthy are these historically, because i know at least 5 cases in which countries sent delegation with bribes in order to change their countries ratings... usually the rating only changes once the government is not aligned with US/UK warmongerers and color revolutionaries...
@ar4122
@ar4122 Жыл бұрын
Just found you....like your content
@natashadickson4819
@natashadickson4819 Жыл бұрын
Good video
@treyshaffer
@treyshaffer Жыл бұрын
HAHAH hearing you speak Russian at 0:29 деньги пожалуйста was amazing thank you so much for that lmao
@ghb323
@ghb323 Жыл бұрын
3:27 the country version of *ah long* from Malaysia and Singapore
@DeVallaR
@DeVallaR Жыл бұрын
Commenting from the defaulted economy :D
@dundun8640
@dundun8640 Жыл бұрын
The way you said that russian phrase, doood that was so bad, like literally the worst but in a way, kinda holds itself up there
@Paddythelaad
@Paddythelaad Жыл бұрын
it seems like almost every country is in debt. I pretty much never hear of countries that are in credit, historically governments lended money out to other ones, do they still?
@mumbaiverve2307
@mumbaiverve2307 Жыл бұрын
Which is the book he is referencing @4:03 ?
@michaelthoma4423
@michaelthoma4423 Жыл бұрын
what's with the noises in the background?! other than that, great vid
@spacekettle2478
@spacekettle2478 Жыл бұрын
@10:33 Greece: Hey guys, I have an idea!
@nicolastorres147
@nicolastorres147 Жыл бұрын
1:04 to amass a lot of GME shares as a country, obviously
@dickfalkenbury1106
@dickfalkenbury1106 Жыл бұрын
The largest default by a government agency in the United States was the Washington Power Supply System (WPSS--pronounced 'whoops'). They reneged on billions of dollars of bonds. The next year, they went back to the bond market and sought to borrow--selling more bonds. And they paid no more interest than any other government agency. The conventional economic wisdom is frequently wrong.
@hiddenname9809
@hiddenname9809 Жыл бұрын
See? We make the countries accountable. We need to make individuals accountable as well.
@Ryan-ju3zq
@Ryan-ju3zq Жыл бұрын
They could always birth a private financial institution that would only loan to them, starting by loaning them 1.2 billion Sri Lankan dollars and just charge interest on those loans for the next 100 years, saving the Sri Lankan government from collapsing but driving up inflation on their currency as it takes out loans from money it's holders never had to begin with, like the United States of America did when it defaulted in 1911.
@successfulusername
@successfulusername Жыл бұрын
So… what’s your thoughts about t-rowes emerging Europe market fund? Think it will recover once the war is over? Will sanctions lift?
@gogo-cx9xc
@gogo-cx9xc Жыл бұрын
you should do a video about "simply wall st", I want to know what you think about it, do you think its reliable or just ya know, not reliable
@thorin1045
@thorin1045 Жыл бұрын
well, it is even more tricky in the russian case (sri lanka is the classic case of country not being able to pay,) as they are not out of money, just the lender decided they do not accept the money russia has, and also the lender do not want to change the money they have, and not because it is valueless (like in the late soviet era), but because reasons. who is the fault, if one side cannot pay, because the other side prevent them. if i have a loan to a bank, and the bank literally do not accept my otherwise perfectly normal payment, than did i missed my loan payment, or is it the banks fault?
@alf.2929
@alf.2929 Жыл бұрын
If you were Paul Singer’s Elliott Capital hedge fund you would repossess Argentina's three-masted tall naval school ship out on the shore of Ghana. After which the back & forth with Singer and the Argentine government persuaded Argentina to repay its bond.
@fl3669
@fl3669 Жыл бұрын
Lol. It was technically the government change that made Paul Singer get his money. Still tho, pretty funny.
@Magdalene777
@Magdalene777 Жыл бұрын
They should have aggressive collection agents call Putin constantly.
@petargolubovic5300
@petargolubovic5300 Жыл бұрын
Love the new format, mr bagel! The information was very digestible, yet concise. The only fault was, as others noticed, this.
@petargolubovic5300
@petargolubovic5300 Жыл бұрын
kzfaq.info/get/bejne/qa-cgayHvdatnqc.html
@archingelus
@archingelus Жыл бұрын
also point of clarification: Russian defaulted mostly because the payment was not receivable from the sanctions not because they are not capable of paying, whether they were NOT willing to pay however is another matter
@dundun8640
@dundun8640 Жыл бұрын
Dude, they invade countries because they want to, i'm pretty sure they won't pay if given the chance.
@archingelus
@archingelus Жыл бұрын
@@dundun8640 so again, in my comment, i stated clearly, whether they have the willingness to pay is completely different matter, also ABSOLUTELY different matter is the political decision to invade or wage war, there are no correlation other than the resulting sanctions in my point, my scope is strictly from economical point of view, not from the point of any other countries being invaded, or the point of view and decision of a madman to wage a war even if they wanna pay, they can't and now the sanction is being turned upside down infact now you got to use their currency if you want gas, so, BUGGER LOL
@contentweaverz2438
@contentweaverz2438 Жыл бұрын
Bond is an unregistered security. Also, if everything is cake then cake is unregistered security.
@helpyourcattodrive
@helpyourcattodrive 10 ай бұрын
Everything is a mess..
Жыл бұрын
Hey Richard, can you talk a little about MMT?
@alsosprachzarathustra5505
@alsosprachzarathustra5505 11 ай бұрын
Why should he? He's no voodoo master.😅
@formulah113
@formulah113 Жыл бұрын
what happens? their currency goes from being one of its self to zero of its self. people start bargaining for 👖 and Jerry crawls all the way home because "it kept working."
@JoelReid
@JoelReid Жыл бұрын
One of the most invaluable historical methods to avoid debt was slavery. by engaging in slavery then a country could use the cheap labour (slaves are not technically free, they are just very cheap) and build infrastructure to recover from economic downturn and supply businesses with alternate options. When you see ancient civilizations you will notice those that avoid slavery for extended periods of time get more debt. In fact, countries could allevieate their debt to other nations by supplying slaves to them volluntarily. I am not advocating slavery, rather just pointing out that the modern world post industrial age is a new and crazy place.
@odinsrensen7460
@odinsrensen7460 Жыл бұрын
I always thought that Greece could at least pay back some of it's debt with clay. I'm sure the Germans would like some Aegean holiday islands.
@vasilikimanoli9285
@vasilikimanoli9285 Жыл бұрын
This is actually very close to what has happened. The greek government was forced to put all valuable land and public wealth (as the water supply service) to a big fund and then sell it to foreign corporations (mostly German) to pay out its debt.
@potatofuryy
@potatofuryy Жыл бұрын
@Babd lmao
@Lawrence330
@Lawrence330 Жыл бұрын
@Babd Ah yes, let's not learn from our history. Never mind the fact that the "victors" plundered Germany's wealth after WWI (reparations), directly enabling the environment that enabled the 3R to come into power in the first place. Besides, it's not like the Greeks are any strangers to plunder. They were a world power once...
@CountingStars333
@CountingStars333 Жыл бұрын
@@Lawrence330 Return the Great star of Africa while you're at it.
@Jose04537
@Jose04537 Жыл бұрын
@@Lawrence330 Well, Germany kind of deserved it. That tends to happen when you miscalculated the posibility of you losing a war you voluntarily decided to participate in.
@motiv8music989
@motiv8music989 Жыл бұрын
What is the name of the book in the video
@wyominghome4857
@wyominghome4857 Жыл бұрын
Correct me if I'm wrong, but deficit spending got rolling in a small way during the Reagan administration (and then went berserk during subsequent administrations.) Like giving a teenager a credit card.
@jhonatancock2302
@jhonatancock2302 Жыл бұрын
US cannot default.
@Toonrick12
@Toonrick12 Жыл бұрын
​@@jhonatancock2302 Technically, it can, but it would cause a financial disaster on the scale of The Bronze Age Collapse.
@PUBLICnoose
@PUBLICnoose Жыл бұрын
The Petro dollar is dead. The us will default
@graham1034
@graham1034 Жыл бұрын
@@jhonatancock2302 I technically could but it doesn't have to given that it pays the debt in USD. If the USD gets too inflated and loses its world reserve currency status then the US could certainly default though.
@LuizFernando-ee3ub
@LuizFernando-ee3ub Жыл бұрын
Make a video about Argentine inflation
@faridmaatalani1662
@faridmaatalani1662 10 ай бұрын
What about Venezuela government bonds ?
@brucefisher3199
@brucefisher3199 Жыл бұрын
A country that borrows in its own currency can’t be made to go insolvent.
@samsonsoturian6013
@samsonsoturian6013 4 ай бұрын
If the currency goes worthless it's the same thing
@QuesttoFIRE
@QuesttoFIRE Жыл бұрын
I just need to know one thing…. Is the Nomad Capitalist your father?!???😂😊
@joelaraujo5943
@joelaraujo5943 3 ай бұрын
I have a question, so my mom showed me a 10,000 peso bill that apparently was used many many years ago in Mexico, and as most of know now days I think the highest bill is around 200 pesos, does anybody know exactly what happened here? And when? Or a video that explains things like that, thank you
@justcommenting4981
@justcommenting4981 Жыл бұрын
Ah so delightfully banal. Debt restructuring and austerity measures. I was surprised to hear you mention nationalizing resources when usually the demand is the opposite. Privatization of formerly nationalized resources and frequently privatization of public sector services like utilities. Does Sun Tzu ever mention debt, or is it too devious a weapon? Good video, if a bit dry.
@ZAR556
@ZAR556 Жыл бұрын
Sri Lanka government defaulted,, the culprit dynasty still enjoying life like usual
@fizzybubblech2128
@fizzybubblech2128 Жыл бұрын
It wasnt just the. It was the ill advise of the world bank and economists like stiglitz to go all organic. Always remember - in most events, the US or at least some of their elite - has a hand.
@starrynight43451
@starrynight43451 Жыл бұрын
The dynasty actually tried to avoid a default. There were many NGOs funded by George Soros, that spoke infavor of a default.
@mekbibtagesse8466
@mekbibtagesse8466 7 ай бұрын
Whats your opinion on the case of Ethiopia which joined the list in the past week?!
@daanishdan318
@daanishdan318 Жыл бұрын
Point of Clarification: World Bank invests in projects. IMF does bail outs. The nature and purpose of the two are very different. Also, it is alleged that the two are basically US's version of leveraging up international funds - they voting/influence is directly tied to the funds contributed. And US remains the largest contributor. Due to this, they are hesitant to give Sri Lanka money if it is being used to pay back China.
@migooknamja
@migooknamja Жыл бұрын
Start using silver and gold as currency and break the shackles of being in debt to globalist banks
@arthas640
@arthas640 Жыл бұрын
I dont blame them for being hesitant, China is the single largest borrower from the IMF and World Bank. China is essentially borrowing from america to steal American customers and american tech so they can compete against America on the world stage, and this is after decades of american business investment in China
@ChocolateMilkCultLeader
@ChocolateMilkCultLeader Жыл бұрын
Funny seeing you here
@JStack
@JStack Жыл бұрын
Bruh 78 mil? Gates has that in his checking account lol
@travisdebeaulieu6394
@travisdebeaulieu6394 Жыл бұрын
He just spent that on farm land too. 🤣
@madafakahakunamatata8269
@madafakahakunamatata8269 Жыл бұрын
0:27 i mean… you could try?
@misterzetius7240
@misterzetius7240 Жыл бұрын
Technically, Russia hasnt defaulted, it has resources to pay dept, just no one allows it to do so.
@kap3469
@kap3469 Жыл бұрын
More like the plain Mike from that chapter.
@n0code
@n0code Жыл бұрын
Russia didnt default beacuase it didnt have the money, Russia defaulted because it literally couldn't make its payments because of the sanctions you know.
@zzzzzzzzzzz6
@zzzzzzzzzzz6 Жыл бұрын
This is insanely interesting. Thanks for the video.
@benjamins2458
@benjamins2458 24 күн бұрын
Making it difficult to borrow money in the future is a positive side-effect, not a negative!
@cia9419
@cia9419 Жыл бұрын
Why do I have to use NOA when the Plain Bagel channel is enough to learn those information xD
@roaringfork
@roaringfork Жыл бұрын
Didn't the Russians default because it wasn't possible to pay after being kicked out of swift? That's technically a default....but what happens?
@josephhoward4697
@josephhoward4697 Жыл бұрын
Lending rates go up, as people see the investment as riskier. This makes loans harder to access.
@TheManinBlack9054
@TheManinBlack9054 Жыл бұрын
True, Russia has the money to pay, but the US just blocks all transactions.
@renanfelipedossantos5913
@renanfelipedossantos5913 Жыл бұрын
Yes, regardless of the reasons that lead to non payment, lending becomes riskier and therefore more expensive.
@tomlxyz
@tomlxyz Жыл бұрын
I think it has more to do with freezing Russia owned currency reserves outside of Russia. I think most of Russias currency reserves are outside Russia
@thatonedudenextdoor7840
@thatonedudenextdoor7840 Жыл бұрын
Russia will borrow less from the west and more from China, pushing them further towards China therefore long term strengthening China.
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