The US Debt Situation Explained

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The Plain Bagel

The Plain Bagel

Жыл бұрын

This video is sponsored by Morning Brew - use the following link to sign up for their awesome newsletter: morningbrewdaily.com/theplain...
If you’d like to learn more about the US debt ceiling specifically, check out this excellent video by @PBoyle: • The US Hits Its Debt C...
A big thank you to @MoneyMacro for helping with this video!
With news of the US debt ceiling standoff, I wanted to take the opportunity to discuss the larger story around the federal government's burgeoning debt load, and whether it spells danger for the American economy.
If you'd like to support the channel, you can do so at / theplainbagel :)
DISCLAIMER:
This channel is for education purposes only and does not constitute financial advice - Richard is not responsible for investment actions taken by viewers. Please seek out a registered advisor if you require assistance (while Richard is a registered portfolio manager at WDS Investment Management, he does not provide advice through The Plain Bagel, which is not affiliated with his employer).

Пікірлер: 2 400
@ThePlainBagel
@ThePlainBagel Жыл бұрын
Check out today's sponsor, Morning Brew! You can use the following link to sign up for their awesome newsletter: morningbrewdaily.com/theplainbagel
@stupidminotaur9735
@stupidminotaur9735 Жыл бұрын
i fully support the usa defaulting on its debt. if its broken and you keep on putting glue/tape on it sooner or later it will break breaking it sooner than later is better.
@yogawan3805
@yogawan3805 Жыл бұрын
Why didn't u talk China already reduced it's US debts holding from 1.3 Trillions to 800 Billions and keep offloading it?
@4fingers183
@4fingers183 Жыл бұрын
31 trillion my butt, Kissinger/pentagon steals that over the weekend :P
@teddybruscie
@teddybruscie Жыл бұрын
Why do you believe a government that makes it's own money can go broke in the currency it makes? Also why do you still believe our taxes pay for government operations when Covid proved we don't tax or issue bonds to spend. If we want to spend money we do and don't raise taxes or sell bonds to do it.
@henrygustav7948
@henrygustav7948 Жыл бұрын
US National debt is nothing but an accounting record of all the dollars the US Federal govt has spent since inception, which is has yet to tax back and sits in our economy as our savings. It is not debt at all, its part of our money supply and there is no problem with it other than the distribution of those dollars. Its not something our grandchildren will have to pay back. Its not a burden on our children. The Fed govt can make any amount of payments it wants to and does not spend peoples taxes. The difference between spending and taxes is the deficit, which necessarily equals our SAVINGS.
@andrewfriedrichs9340
@andrewfriedrichs9340 Жыл бұрын
It's almost like there is a large cohort of aging people who have no issue borrowing against their children's future.
@klariskb4497
@klariskb4497 Жыл бұрын
It's much more than that... It's kind of cyclical imo with a little bit of external influence
@cisium1184
@cisium1184 Жыл бұрын
Yeah we need to get rid of the old people, because young people are great with credit. 🤣
@aleger620
@aleger620 Жыл бұрын
Nah... let's JAPAN PAY FOR IT
@garyvanremortel5218
@garyvanremortel5218 Жыл бұрын
After all, we're freely handing them a world that is already been built. They will do the same for their offspring. This is how life works.
@TheRealE.B.
@TheRealE.B. Жыл бұрын
We're borrowing against our children's futures in more ways than just our national debt. We're building unsustainable infrastructure systems that they won't be able to afford to maintain, and we're polluting the environment for them to either pay to clean up or live with the health consequences of.
@Origami84
@Origami84 Жыл бұрын
Italian here. We, too, had a period - 1980s - where our debt exploded until the markets were worried we would default. We didn't default - that's good. Our economy remained stagnant for decades, because taxes couldn't be lowered while our government could hardly afford any kind of stimulus - that's bad. Also, we are vulnerable more than ever to pressure from financial markets. And the chances of going back to a manageable debt are close to zero, which means lifelong state slavery to debt owners. So, no, you don't want to be in our situation even if "we are still not going to default". Just saying.....
@noahremnek3615
@noahremnek3615 Жыл бұрын
It is a bit different because the US can print the currency it owes its debt unlike Italy.
@kriterium123
@kriterium123 Жыл бұрын
I think you guys are still in this period tbh
@yougetaspear7799
@yougetaspear7799 Жыл бұрын
Amerikkka is spoiled...hence it's printing press goes nonstop cos the is enslaved by the $ cos world runs on it atleast and indefinitely will see till other credible baskets come to bear
@havencat9337
@havencat9337 Жыл бұрын
us will just print more $$$
@pjhardy6438
@pjhardy6438 Жыл бұрын
"Taxes couldn't be lowered" yet they were lowered, for the most wealthy People and thé biggest international compagnies how evade happily Taxes. Richard is blinded by the economic doxa. A sovereign state is not à compagny. A state could decide to tax 20% of any wealth above a certain threshold. It has been done in the past (France, 1946-1949). Abstate could also tax at an exorbitant rate above a certain pay grade : USA under eisenhower had a 97% marginal tax rate.
@The2wanderers
@The2wanderers Жыл бұрын
It never ceases to baffle me that approving borrowing is a separate process from approving the budget. The budget has implied borrowing in it, why would any sensible system not also authorize the government to borrow as specified in the budget?
@chowsquid
@chowsquid Жыл бұрын
It’s simply so they can have this fight every year. Just like china’s most favored nation status back in the 2000s. It’s non debatable but it was brought up to debate regardless.
@defenstrator4660
@defenstrator4660 Жыл бұрын
Because automatically writing yourself a blank check is not actually responsible. The whole point is to place a constraint where the people spending the money have to actually explain why it has to be borrowed rather than the country working off existing tax revenue.
@ShadowAraun
@ShadowAraun Жыл бұрын
@@defenstrator4660 so its simple, any time we have to pass a bill that increases government spending, pass a debt ceiling increase to compensate. you are already showing where the money is going, its going to this new spending venture.
@defenstrator4660
@defenstrator4660 Жыл бұрын
@@ShadowAraun Yeah, that’s missing the point. The reason the debt ceiling is there is to try and stop spending money you don’t have. Unless it is some sort of future benefit borrowing is simply stealing the money of those in the future to spend in the present. You get the stuff, they get the debt. The idea is that if you should not be able to simply borrow and tax. That there must be some fiscal responsibility to live within your means. It can be done. During the 90s both Canada and the US had balanced budgets. So why people treat it as an alien concept is beyond me,
@ShadowAraun
@ShadowAraun Жыл бұрын
@@defenstrator4660 the idea of raising the ceiling being tied to bills that increase spending is EXACTLY to limit the bills that increase spending. so we can stop spending money we don't have.
@asak
@asak Жыл бұрын
One small, but important correction, @9:00: Instead of "Even with a massive debt load, the cost of maintaining this debt is actually lower than it's been in the past", it should be "...is actually *relatively* lower than...", right?
@RobertBeedle
@RobertBeedle 5 күн бұрын
Correct.
@moneysins
@moneysins Жыл бұрын
US Debt - let’s see how far we can stretch our reserve currency privileges before it breaks
@5678plm
@5678plm Жыл бұрын
Let's cut out the engines of the plane in order to see what happens
@NormalPerson053
@NormalPerson053 Жыл бұрын
"What happens to those nations that run out of cash either one goes commie or ones goes fash. Million dollars for a loaf of bread can't wait to bash my neighbors head print money. " Remember this song?
@badluck5647
@badluck5647 Жыл бұрын
I find it unnerving that Warren, Sanders, and AOC claim that having a reserve currency means we can spend infinitely without consequences, _and people believe them._
@moneysins
@moneysins Жыл бұрын
@@badluck5647 Hey hey hey, not every politician has the time to read history okay? Pandering to political extremism is very time consuming I’ll have you know!
@moneysins
@moneysins Жыл бұрын
@@NormalPerson053 Not necessarily, the UK lost its reserve status and have managed fine (until it decided to shoot itself in the foot). But yeah that’s a gamble best left not taken…
@shaunmoorefinance
@shaunmoorefinance Жыл бұрын
Lol just had a funny thought. Imagine getting a letter through the door saying ‘You owe us $31.4 Trillion’. 😂
@tioswift3676
@tioswift3676 Жыл бұрын
That’s pocket change
@shaunmoorefinance
@shaunmoorefinance Жыл бұрын
@@tioswift3676 Oh really! Try carrying $31.4 Trillion in loose change and get back to me 😂
@jirachi-wishmaker9242
@jirachi-wishmaker9242 Жыл бұрын
@@tioswift3676 you from Zimbabwe
@shaunmoorefinance
@shaunmoorefinance Жыл бұрын
@@jirachi-wishmaker9242 hahahaahaha
@shanefoster2132
@shanefoster2132 Жыл бұрын
Perhaps not such a bad thing. Two possible outcomes: you convince others you are successful and can make the payments (thus they are invested in your continued success) or they are unconvinced and seize your assets. Good luck. Or thirdly, debt forgiveness though that is somewhat in category 1 of convincing debt holders but now we're approaching levels of nuance involving debt and politics that I can neither articulate nor understand properly to succinctly write in a comment.
@DecemberNames
@DecemberNames Жыл бұрын
Thank you for another great video mate. I enjoyed every second. Please keep it coming.
@overcaffeinatedengineering
@overcaffeinatedengineering Жыл бұрын
Love these videos. Loving this editing too.
@Thebreakdownshow1
@Thebreakdownshow1 Жыл бұрын
Every time US is at its debt ceiling the they remember one song "So we put our hands up like the ceiling can't hold us "
@kicapanmanis1060
@kicapanmanis1060 Жыл бұрын
They better do it cos US is in trouble if they don't increase it.
@aracxhne1965
@aracxhne1965 Жыл бұрын
@@kicapanmanis1060 increasing the dept ceiling will only cause more dept, the more dept the more the U.S. dollar will lose value. No value, everything will come to a stand still and everything will probably crash. They’re only causing more economic damage by not paying the dept.
@lilytea3
@lilytea3 8 ай бұрын
0:06: 📉 The US government is at its debt ceiling and may default on its debt, causing severe consequences for the economy. 3:43: 📊 The US government has been accumulating federal debt since 2001, with an average annual inflation-adjusted pace of 5.7 percent, leading to the need for frequent debt ceiling hikes. 6:41: 💰 The United States has a larger economy and more industry diversification, giving it more access to capital and lower reliance on crucial imports compared to other countries. 9:31: 📈 Despite a massive debt load, the US government has been able to borrow at low rates, suggesting market confidence in America's solvency. 12:34: 💰 The government should prioritize managing the debt balance before interest payments to avoid a debt crisis, as seen in Greece and Sri Lanka. Recap by Tammy AI
@SaintlySaavy
@SaintlySaavy Жыл бұрын
@theplainbagel great video! I was wondering if you could cause continue along the lines of this topic and discuss the impacts of another world currency.
@lukewarm6369
@lukewarm6369 3 ай бұрын
11 months passed a little over 34.2 trillion dollars now
@quippy8402
@quippy8402 Жыл бұрын
There is technically no debt crisis if the debt is dollar denominated, as the country can always print money. The real risk is foreign countries' loss of confidence in US dollar. This depends mostly on how fair and well we treat the other countries and whether they believe that we are a "stable partner" of trade. This latter part I am not so sure with what we have been hysterically doing in the past few years.
@grimaffiliations3671
@grimaffiliations3671 Жыл бұрын
Exactly
@JohnKerbaugh
@JohnKerbaugh Жыл бұрын
The crisis comes when you devalue the currency and destroy every dollar denominated contract, including loans.
@LuciferArc1
@LuciferArc1 Жыл бұрын
No. Thats not true. Everytime you print money, the value backing it gets divided by the increased amount of printed dollars. If your gdp does not increase to compensate for the increase of debt or printed dollars, your purchasing power goes down. Hence inflation. This idea that you can do this with no consequence is blatantly false.
@howardfriedman7077
@howardfriedman7077 Жыл бұрын
quippy: The country or, government, does not print money. The Fed does.
@grimaffiliations3671
@grimaffiliations3671 Жыл бұрын
@@LuciferArc1 you contradicted your own point. First you said the value backing dollars is divided every time you print money, then you said that is only the case if the gdp does not increase. Which is it? does it devalue every time you print, or only when theres no growth?
@markbell5929
@markbell5929 Жыл бұрын
Hey Richard… would you consider doing a segment on Stephanie Kelton’s book (The Deficit Myth)? I find her argument quite compelling. Cheers
@harrison6082
@harrison6082 Жыл бұрын
Well, it's nice to know that most investors and banks aren't skeptical of the US's ability to pay it back, yet. Edit: But still, maybe congress will do more damage than the size of the debt itself.
@asdf3568
@asdf3568 Жыл бұрын
Mostly because they don't have a choice. If you want a dollar denominated loan, you to buy treasuries
@jirachi-wishmaker9242
@jirachi-wishmaker9242 Жыл бұрын
US doesn't let "choices" to emerge or stay. Because it will crumble their establishment. More importantly its allies helps US to do that for easy US-Pound & US-Euro swap.
@ryans3795
@ryans3795 Жыл бұрын
The US can really do anything it needs to keep the markets ok, but can the average citizen be able to handle what the government puts them through.
@trod5902
@trod5902 Жыл бұрын
what choice do they actually have? the reality is that nobody believes the US is paying back anything, but they have to act like it. otherwise their companies will collapse along with the US and the dollar
@jkilleen1327
@jkilleen1327 Жыл бұрын
Nice work! Thank you
@moneysins
@moneysins Жыл бұрын
Imagine the US dipping into default because of politicians playing chicken, haha… ha… ha…
@Krevvs
@Krevvs Жыл бұрын
Republicans. Call them out.
@Toonrick12
@Toonrick12 Жыл бұрын
That's actually illegal. The Fourth article of the 14th amendment makes it illegal for the US to default on its own debt. Edit: Oops, wrong section.
@Jose04537
@Jose04537 Жыл бұрын
@@Krevvs The government HAVE to reduce spending and raise taxes. You can't continue kicking the can down the road.
@OzixiThrill
@OzixiThrill Жыл бұрын
@@Krevvs Nah. This bullshit is present and common with the entire political sphere in the US.
@ValueInvestor212
@ValueInvestor212 Жыл бұрын
@@Krevvs We are going to default eventually through not paying, or inflation, better to do it honestly and get it over with. We need massive cuts to government
@stlouisix3
@stlouisix3 Жыл бұрын
A much-needed video
@andrewmelean8259
@andrewmelean8259 Жыл бұрын
Very informative!
@lreyhons
@lreyhons Жыл бұрын
The thumbnail for this is probably the best to describe the video and how he feels about the debt ceiling
@toddwerther188
@toddwerther188 Жыл бұрын
I'm going to call myself 'the person who is fiscally conservative' in the relationship while spending as much or more than my spouse
@jonnyd9351
@jonnyd9351 Жыл бұрын
Nice twisting of words
@grimaffiliations3671
@grimaffiliations3671 Жыл бұрын
@@jonnyd9351 ?
@Redmanticore
@Redmanticore Жыл бұрын
just a reminder that neither party cares absolutely nothing about debt when they are in charge. so, it will rise. will that ever matter to the one who has the biggest GDP and biggest military? probably not. but then again, they are being awfully sweaty about china and encircling them for really no good reason.
@toddwerther188
@toddwerther188 Жыл бұрын
@@Redmanticore I agree, my point is one party lies and says tells their voters a story which sadly many of their voters believe. There's a reason fox lies and misinforms their viewers.
@dominicekezie2011
@dominicekezie2011 Жыл бұрын
@@jonnyd9351 explain
@Colnefix
@Colnefix Жыл бұрын
I didn't see an animated video of Plain Baggle since 5-Minute history lessons, I love this
@adamfattal9602
@adamfattal9602 Жыл бұрын
Your name is longer than my biography. Legendary
@ACE-700
@ACE-700 Жыл бұрын
If u know mandarin it’s pretty funny
@raydizzle6767
@raydizzle6767 Жыл бұрын
Good one here Mate!
@AnonymousAccount514
@AnonymousAccount514 8 ай бұрын
That was awesome…thank you
@Bradleyschaeffer376
@Bradleyschaeffer376 Жыл бұрын
Thanks bud for keepin us financially Educated! Regardless of how bad it gets on the economy
@GaryWinstonBrown
@GaryWinstonBrown Жыл бұрын
She's unique in the field just got to keep to her instructions and you Excel.
@AnnaKrueger809
@AnnaKrueger809 Жыл бұрын
Have seen lots of inspiring testimonies about this broker lately...I guess she must be really good…l'll definitely make out time to connect with her anyways
@mesiroy1234
@mesiroy1234 Жыл бұрын
It's not up to date it's already it's months before it should upload this
@ZephyrinSkies
@ZephyrinSkies Жыл бұрын
Ugh, spambot thread
@thetheatreorgan168
@thetheatreorgan168 9 ай бұрын
🛑🛑🛑🤖🤖🤖
@mmdias87
@mmdias87 Жыл бұрын
Well done.
@chesshead3943
@chesshead3943 Ай бұрын
Nice video!
@CreepahKillahRSA
@CreepahKillahRSA Жыл бұрын
I’m so glad our politicians who don’t have to live with the consequences of the debt have decided to keep raising it even when we are in expansions.
@lewis123417
@lewis123417 Жыл бұрын
Its because people can't stomach the idea of having to deal with spending cuts and a slow down of quantative easing
@thedavidj1996
@thedavidj1996 Жыл бұрын
But what are the consequences? Economists do not agree on when the tipping point is or if there even is one. The US has sovereign currency that isn’t beholden to the price of a good (ie a Fiat currency) or another government (Euro). Running a surplus takes money out of the economy through taxation. Government spending stimulates economic activity, either by adding to the capital stock (roads etc), wages (government employees) or direct transfers (tax credits, assistance programs, social security, etc). Running a deficit ensures that more money is distributed. Inflation can be controlled by both interest rates and through taxation. Your retirement plan, social security administration, banks, and long term investors use bonds as an investment tool. If the government didn’t issue treasury bonds then you wouldn’t have access to a long term and safe investment. You’d be reliant on real estate, stock prices, or business investment as your only means of investment.
@Hyperpandas
@Hyperpandas Жыл бұрын
As they should. The debt ceiling is about paying debts that have already been incurred, mostly through obligations that have already been approved by Congress. Reducing government spending during economic expansion is a budget conversation.
@grimaffiliations3671
@grimaffiliations3671 Жыл бұрын
what are the consequences of the debt? A functioning government? Growth?
@whannabi
@whannabi Жыл бұрын
​@@grimaffiliations3671 everyone can ask to be paid at the same time 😈
@user-hx2ch7pd2b
@user-hx2ch7pd2b Жыл бұрын
would be great to see the analysis of the Chinese state debt. Great video! Thank you!
@djinn666
@djinn666 3 ай бұрын
I think it'd be interesting to hear this analysis again with updated information from this year.
@zacksnyder4082
@zacksnyder4082 Жыл бұрын
Wow, that was really well said
@archstanton3931
@archstanton3931 Жыл бұрын
"Who is going to pay for all these government bailouts? That's out children, our poor, poor children." - The Onion, 2009 (pundit ratings plummeted in the first half, skyrocketed in the second)
@willinton06
@willinton06 Жыл бұрын
And I happen to own multiple post office boxes
@keithw4920
@keithw4920 Жыл бұрын
Not just the children in the USA. The rest of the world and their children pays too.
@fedordatnov1320
@fedordatnov1320 Жыл бұрын
what children? We have the lowest marriage rates and births rates, and it's keep declining
@rogerbartlet5720
@rogerbartlet5720 Жыл бұрын
having children will be too expensive and people will avoid having them. The tax slaves the government is expecting just won't be there.
@WordDefinition
@WordDefinition Жыл бұрын
A lot of billionaires and millionaires are being made everyday but none are contributing to the debt ceiling. Imagine being a millionaire but your country’s debt is in 31T 😂 fake rich i may say
@edgarrodriguez8973
@edgarrodriguez8973 Жыл бұрын
Super informative and didactic as usual, you are such a great lecturer. Any thought about becoming a professor?
@simonharrison9727
@simonharrison9727 Жыл бұрын
Great vid!!
@hunterrichards2326
@hunterrichards2326 Жыл бұрын
7:45 my pattern seeking brain heard the word “safe haven asset” and my thumbs automatically moved to skip 40 seconds past the impending masterworks ad before I remembered what channel I was watching
@mirzaeyahia1673
@mirzaeyahia1673 Жыл бұрын
It’s indeed quite educative lecture with unbiased elements n logic.
@Steven_Bo1
@Steven_Bo1 Жыл бұрын
Putting a bunch of descriptive nonsensical words together doesn’t mean you’re smart
@abhisheksathe123
@abhisheksathe123 Жыл бұрын
We will take extraordinary measures to stay within debt limit -Ends up raising the debt ceiling again
@grimaffiliations3671
@grimaffiliations3671 Жыл бұрын
the debt ceiling makes no sense
@anton3437
@anton3437 Жыл бұрын
@@grimaffiliations3671 There is technically always a debt crisis with fiat currencies as every single printed dollar has interest on it and it is basically a loan of dollar + interest. Problem is at the point of taking the loan/printing currency, funds for that interest do not exist so we could never pay our loan back completely. This is why deficit spending is crucial.
@grimaffiliations3671
@grimaffiliations3671 Жыл бұрын
@@anton3437 every printed dollar doesn't have interest, the fed just sells bonds equivalent to the difference between spending and taxes, and those bonds are the ones with interest. But the fed only does that to control interest rates, they could deficit spend without selling bonds if they wanted to
@Redmanticore
@Redmanticore Жыл бұрын
@@grimaffiliations3671 dissolve fed dissolve dollar
@roxymax8917
@roxymax8917 Жыл бұрын
Waiting for dedolarisation
@thetooginator153
@thetooginator153 Жыл бұрын
Excellent video!
@Woody181
@Woody181 Жыл бұрын
Great vid ty
@TrapGod_JackofAllTrades
@TrapGod_JackofAllTrades Жыл бұрын
I'm not gonna lie. I was expecting the usual "sound the alarm we are all gonna die", but I was pleasantly surprised to see the opposite. Thank you for your work
@johnathin0061892
@johnathin0061892 Жыл бұрын
Eventually, this will economically destroy America. It is no joke. Math doesn't lie, politicians do.
@josephpeeler5434
@josephpeeler5434 Жыл бұрын
We are in big trouble. The debt service cost is exploding. It will be $700 billion by early 2024. That is close to what the federal govt spends on the military.
@MrPaxio
@MrPaxio Жыл бұрын
anime and lgbtq always wants to keep you on edge
@kicapanmanis1060
@kicapanmanis1060 Жыл бұрын
I can't remember the book at the top of my head but read a book that studied debt and defaults of countries across history and found very little correlation between debt-to-GDP ratio and defaults. Which itself doesn't mean more debt = good but a country having high debt to its GDP doesn't mean it will more likely default on them. How the debt is managed and serviced is more important than the actual amount of debt.
@grimaffiliations3671
@grimaffiliations3671 Жыл бұрын
Yeah, russia had a low debt to gdp ratio in the late 90's and still defaulted, meanwhile japans' debt is twice the size of it's entire economy and it's fine. What determines whether or not you default is whether or not your debt is in your own currency. If it is, you're fine
@howardbaxter2514
@howardbaxter2514 Жыл бұрын
@@grimaffiliations3671 yeah, but the problem is, you become reliant upon said situation and if and when that changes you are now saddled with a mountain of debt. The US is lucky right now that the world at large is favorable towards us and sees us as a good trading partner. But that can very easily change, especially with China looking at large.
@grimaffiliations3671
@grimaffiliations3671 Жыл бұрын
@@howardbaxter2514 But the nature of sovereign debt means you can conduct fiscal policy however you see fit regardless of any changes in trading patterns. Because a nation that borrows in it's own currency does not need domestic of foreign investors in order to spend or control their interest rates. The world could stop being favorable to the US, and it could lose it's reserve currency status and it would still be able to operate the same way. After all, plenty of non reserve currency nations operate this way today
@chowsquid
@chowsquid Жыл бұрын
The US wouldn’t be affected on current debt/bonds. That’s the problem for the debt holder….suckers!!!😂😂 But it would affect future US borrowing…😢 Btw, US also a holder of current US debt.
@jlowe8059
@jlowe8059 Жыл бұрын
@@howardbaxter2514 It can change, but not very easily. It would be very hard for anyone to replicate US value to the world, as you have to be actually physically capable of doing so, and no one is close yet. US military, specifically Navy plays a large role in this and its not likely to change to near future.
@jmcmob608
@jmcmob608 Жыл бұрын
Thank you very much...
@prav077
@prav077 Жыл бұрын
Great video
@user-cd4bx6uq1y
@user-cd4bx6uq1y Жыл бұрын
USA: we have special empire priviledges that are used like a normal part of life and it doesn't ever go wrong at all
@grimaffiliations3671
@grimaffiliations3671 Жыл бұрын
they don't have empire privileges, they just have monetary sovereignty like a bunch of other nations
@21Alansi
@21Alansi Жыл бұрын
Keep them coming sir. I love your videos. A trained professional educating the public, it doesn't get any better.
@sourabhmayekar3354
@sourabhmayekar3354 Жыл бұрын
Good one
@janetwilliams7705
@janetwilliams7705 Жыл бұрын
Thank you.
@jcam5
@jcam5 Жыл бұрын
Is the US borrowing from the Iron Bank from Braavos? I remember in GOT that Tywin said the crown has borrowed so much, he wouldn't even give a specific amount.
@carltonthesponge
@carltonthesponge Жыл бұрын
would love to see a video about Argentina's debt crisis as well!!
@Rx330lexuslover
@Rx330lexuslover Жыл бұрын
Fuck Argentina
@PS_on_youtube
@PS_on_youtube Жыл бұрын
What happens to bond holders after the 'x date' (ie. the last day the us government has to make a decision on what it's going to do about the debt ceiling)? What happens if the US does default (a technical default, not a actual default)? What happens if the US's credit rating gets down graded (again)? *i've done a lot of reading on this... the best answer i can find is that 'the treasury would stop paying interest'.. Great, but what happens to my principle (ie, the money i used to buy the bond in the first place), does it just sit locked away until maturity (accruing 0% interest), or would the Treasury 'take' the principle and i'd never see my money again? IDK...
@JeanValjean875
@JeanValjean875 Жыл бұрын
Would this be a bad time to point out that if Bush Jr had just continued Clinton's budget policies, the US national debt would be completely paid off by this point? It seems like a bad time.
@lemmingsgopop
@lemmingsgopop Жыл бұрын
People also forgot that the one law that actually got passed through the Trump presidency was a $T tax cut to millionaires and billionaires.
@rogerbartlet5720
@rogerbartlet5720 Жыл бұрын
Nothing was/is stopping them.
@Fedgery007
@Fedgery007 Жыл бұрын
That’s irrelevant unless you can go back in time.
@SamAronow
@SamAronow Жыл бұрын
You wouldn't want the US to be entirely debt-free though, as that would also dry up the government's credit. Budget surpluses (which are problematic in their own way, but that's a different conversation) would have created an incentive to offer more Treasury bonds.
@luisfilipe2023
@luisfilipe2023 Жыл бұрын
That’s incredibly misleading. The 1990s were a completely different time before 911 2008 and the pandemic.
@Droidman1231
@Droidman1231 Жыл бұрын
It's a shame we spend 9.7% of the budget in interest payments. 9.7% of the huge federal budget so much money they could do so much good.
@MyVanir
@MyVanir Жыл бұрын
Yeah, why should that debt be repair.
@grimaffiliations3671
@grimaffiliations3671 Жыл бұрын
why? Theres no opportunity cost to interest payments
@jwiderstra
@jwiderstra Жыл бұрын
Thank you
@Murmilone
@Murmilone Жыл бұрын
The most interesting part on 10:11 is how the numbers change from right to left.
@AnonNobody
@AnonNobody Жыл бұрын
Please keep the charts/graphs up longer. It’s hard to pause in time to absorb the info.
@johanneszwilling
@johanneszwilling Жыл бұрын
😅 Thank you for the more literal thumbnail. Kept thinking about Patrick's video where he used dollar bills to make the point, but might have been counter-intuitive.
@duskrider1724
@duskrider1724 Жыл бұрын
I really appreciate that your content model isn't panic for clicks.
@birgerfurugard7259
@birgerfurugard7259 10 ай бұрын
Great video dude!
@hyrenaj2888
@hyrenaj2888 Жыл бұрын
As a follow up I would love to see your thoughts on how income has correlated with spending to result in our deficit for the past 20 years or so
@maxchen7229
@maxchen7229 Жыл бұрын
The question is simple, how can you keep use more money than your income? Any country, any company any organization? Any family can do this forever?
@grimaffiliations3671
@grimaffiliations3671 Жыл бұрын
no, just governments who borrow in their own currency
@soullesspancake7405
@soullesspancake7405 Жыл бұрын
Before 2008 crisis, the market believed that the housing market would never crash.....
@leonelgaldinomonteiro4783
@leonelgaldinomonteiro4783 Жыл бұрын
Nothing is forever
@z50king29
@z50king29 Жыл бұрын
Thanks
@midimusicforever
@midimusicforever Жыл бұрын
Alarmists gonna alarm. Good thing we have Richard to keep things nuanced!
@METC500
@METC500 Жыл бұрын
you didn’t tell me to stay safe out there! what am i supposed to do now?!
@EdGeyy
@EdGeyy Жыл бұрын
There's an advert on this video which is offering a scheme exactly like those you have warned us of in the past. "You may doubt my strategy.. so lets take this one individual case where it's been successful as an example"......
@abdullahalmosalami2373
@abdullahalmosalami2373 Жыл бұрын
That thumbnail is so funny and so fitting 😂😂
@porkch0mp538
@porkch0mp538 Жыл бұрын
I wish I knew which topics were inherently politicized when I was younger. Maybe some good professors mentioned it but I always got the average to below avg profs due to registering late. Took me until being an adult a few years before I noticed this happens every year like american idol.
@caryandrae9952
@caryandrae9952 Жыл бұрын
the sole reason why US can sustain such a high debt is simply because of reserve currency status. However, with more countries breaking away from the dollars for their trade and reserves, that will be less demands for dollars which will slowly degrade the reserve status. While many countries would not want to immediately crash the dollars since it will also put them in a bind. So what many countries are doing now is mainly to remove the dollar risk and weaponized against them while at the same time they slowly unload dollar bonds so as not to shock the system too much.
@jpgunman0708
@jpgunman0708 Жыл бұрын
thanks
@troypresley
@troypresley Жыл бұрын
I love your videos, and this one is also very good in general, but I wish you had talked about the fact the Fed can always reduce the outstanding debt load by purchasing as much of the debt as is needed. Since all interest payments the Fed receives are returned to the Treasury, this is effectively the same as retiring that portion of the debt. The trade off being that Fed purchases of treasuries will (all things equal) lower the interest rate, which may conflict with their stated goals… but it doesn’t change the fact that the US debt, in itself, is never an inescapable burden. Although it’s less accepted, it would also have been good to see you mention that many economists reject the idea that treasuries represent the government borrowing money in the first place, but are simply functioning to reduce the liquid hard money supply (as evidenced by the justification for war bonds in the past).
@leads823
@leads823 Жыл бұрын
The reality is that the Congress could vote to remove the debt ceiling completely like many other counties have done. In doing that, they would also have to agree to let go of that as a bargaining chip. If it’s gone, no one can use it as ammunition or hostage taking. That is more the issue. Getting them to agree to loss of control they feel from having a debt ceiling.
@rockmusicman21
@rockmusicman21 Жыл бұрын
Don't forget about the insane amounts of debts that the decades long war on terror brought us. Before that we had almost no debt. I know there are many factors but that's a huge one.
@newt4949
@newt4949 Жыл бұрын
“War on false terror” to be exact, we didn’t belong there
@odapow752
@odapow752 Жыл бұрын
Thumbnail is great lol
@tejaslohani7458
@tejaslohani7458 Жыл бұрын
The stocks price sees a higher demand when the company has a positive news.But If a companys stock price is not entirely dependent on the company itself and can deviate by supply and demand,wouldn't it be possible for a group of people to deflate or inflate the price of a stock as the stocks price has increased due to demand created indirectly by the companies fundamentals but the fundamentals itself have just increased demand and have not directly increased the price of a stock?
@elarmino6590
@elarmino6590 Жыл бұрын
The problem with continuing to raise the debt ceiling is that one day they are going to go up and ask for so much that they are going to make an argentine, in other words, from one day to the next all confidence in the US public debt is lost and creditors are not going to lend (default)
@EdMan102292
@EdMan102292 Жыл бұрын
I mean only if dept as a percentage of GDP is increasing. If the debt is increasing more slowly than the economy is growing then we could hit debt ceilings while literally owing less and less debt.
@elarmino6590
@elarmino6590 Жыл бұрын
@@EdMan102292 right now, tomorrow exists
@roberts.9299
@roberts.9299 Жыл бұрын
Imagine Richard playing fallout and considering the intricacies of wasteland economics... Video request here.
@Loislikes
@Loislikes Ай бұрын
You mean, other than offing a merchant and taking all his stuff?
@roberts.9299
@roberts.9299 Ай бұрын
@@Loislikes If you off all the merchants, who's going to buy all your loot? Merchants are the only npcs that make it to the end in every game.
@Loislikes
@Loislikes Ай бұрын
@@roberts.9299 Not every merchant. Just the ones with good loot. 😂
@ManuVyas-social
@ManuVyas-social Жыл бұрын
That thumbnail is hilarious 😂
@SmudgyRules
@SmudgyRules Жыл бұрын
Would love to see your take on the recent US bank crashes - Silvergate and SVB.
@shanefoster2132
@shanefoster2132 Жыл бұрын
Good news! Check out his latest video.
@bargdaffy1535
@bargdaffy1535 Жыл бұрын
And Treasury Bonds are payed out in a Currency that the Bond Issuer (US Government) has a monopoly on the creation of.
@nickm1727
@nickm1727 Жыл бұрын
One could argue that the only reason Japan has not defaulted is because of their US debt collateral. Therefore, if the US debt comes into question, Japan will certainly default.
@grimaffiliations3671
@grimaffiliations3671 Жыл бұрын
That's not true at all, it's because they have monetary sovereignty. All their debt is in their own currency, just like the US
@howardfriedman7077
@howardfriedman7077 Жыл бұрын
If the U.S. defaults, it would cause world-wide economic panic.
@noahjones9833
@noahjones9833 Жыл бұрын
@@grimaffiliations3671 true but like howard says, if we default, almost everyone defaults
@grimaffiliations3671
@grimaffiliations3671 Жыл бұрын
@@noahjones9833 No, Japan would not default. Heck they've already retired half of their national debt
@Redmanticore
@Redmanticore Жыл бұрын
@@noahjones9833 sure, but we have alternatives, like russia and china. world wont end if America fumbles. it just gets a new management.
@DaneRates
@DaneRates 12 күн бұрын
Need to see the National Det repayment records receipts. Also who authorizes writes or digitally transfers the checks and the Bank the payments are deposited in.
@alfred7252
@alfred7252 Жыл бұрын
How do you feel about analyses done by Strong Towns and Urban3 regarding the cash flow issues presented by US suburban development? I see that being a major drag on net income, which might explain in part the repeated budget deficits.
@thevoidlookspretty7079
@thevoidlookspretty7079 Жыл бұрын
If the government defaults before late December, Then that will make it the 4th once in a lifetime event I’ll have lived through before I turn 21.
@Mark-pb8kj
@Mark-pb8kj 6 ай бұрын
You're living through the Great Reset. You ain't seen nothing yet.
@MegaLokopo
@MegaLokopo Жыл бұрын
It should be pointed out that things we all agree we need are not the things that are super expensive and causing problems.
@EdMan102292
@EdMan102292 Жыл бұрын
The vast vast majority of government spending is for healthcare and social security. Then the military.
@MegaLokopo
@MegaLokopo Жыл бұрын
@@EdMan102292 Yep. Things like infrastructure cost almost nothing compared to those three.
@arthas640
@arthas640 Жыл бұрын
@@EdMan102292 That's one fact that endlessly pisses me off about people who complain about things like US healthcare and welfare. We already spend 1/3 of our budget on social security and unemployment and around 1/4 on healthcare. The military spending is higher than most countries at around 15% but that's in large part due to the fact that the rest of the world depends on the US for security. As the war in Ukraine has proven Europe hasn't been spending their fair share and relied on America to pick up their tab for the last couple decades and that's just one area the US safeguards. Even then the US military spending isnt high enough to solve all or even most of our problems; most experts say a country should spend around 2% of their GDP on defense and the US spends a little over 3% so even if they got it down to that 2% level it would only free up around 5% of the budget. That isnt a silver bullet either, most military spending goes right back into the economy in the form of infrastructure, R&D, and public works and further gets some of the costs recouped by selling equipment to other countries. The US also sends a lot of aid in the form of "military equipment", even humanitarian aid is taken out of that military spending since things like food aid is often in the form of MREs and the US military conducts things like rescue operations and disaster relief (just look at the disaster in Haiti).
@grimaffiliations3671
@grimaffiliations3671 Жыл бұрын
nothing is causing problems. The US debt is perfectly sustainable, because the fed has ironclad control of our interest rates. They will always make sure inters payments are below the growth of the economy
@MegaLokopo
@MegaLokopo Жыл бұрын
@@grimaffiliations3671 That isn't always going to be enough to avoid issues. If that was the case the government would have gotten rid of the debt ceiling permanently long ago.
@dznuts123
@dznuts123 Жыл бұрын
The “largest” economy that is dominated by the service industry. That sure is reassuring. But the Hopi um is much appreciated.
@nobitanobi8888
@nobitanobi8888 Жыл бұрын
The thumbnail is funny af 🤣
@ALEXFVHS
@ALEXFVHS Жыл бұрын
Im kinda confused as to what it means for government to be a holder of its own debt. Is it equivalent of me having creditcard debt but instead of owing that money to the bank, i owe it to myself? If that's the case, in what sense is that really debt then?
@chewyspedoodle5499
@chewyspedoodle5499 Жыл бұрын
I’m not an economist but someone in another comment here kinda answered you. They said the problem is not the debt at all befause we own the currency. The problem is other countries’ belief in our currency. If we push our privilege too far and another world currency is established, we’re screwed.
@mephistoss238
@mephistoss238 Жыл бұрын
While it may not be an issue right now, I just can't comprehend how this problem will be addressed without a debt crisis in the future.
@grimaffiliations3671
@grimaffiliations3671 Жыл бұрын
it wont be an issue in the future either
@howardbaxter2514
@howardbaxter2514 Жыл бұрын
@@grimaffiliations3671 see, I’m calling absolute bullshit on that. It will be an issue in the future if we don’t take steps to mitigate it. You say the US will be fine, but what happens when our allies and the world decides to not invest in us? What happens when the international laws we hold dearly break down, and the debt collectors of other foreign entities come calling? Such a notion baffles me, especially when history tells us otherwise. We are likely one series of unfortunate events from all of this going out the window.
@grimaffiliations3671
@grimaffiliations3671 Жыл бұрын
@@howardbaxter2514 We'll be fine when the world decides not to invest in us, because foreign investment does not determine our ability to conduct fiscal policy as we see fit. That's the beauty of sovereign debt, you cannot default on debt denominated in your own currency
@mephistoss238
@mephistoss238 Жыл бұрын
@@grimaffiliations3671 the debt to GDP increased from 30% to 120% in the last 40 years. Debt servicing will soon be the biggest subject of government spending, above social security, and military. This isn't a sustainable path
@grimaffiliations3671
@grimaffiliations3671 Жыл бұрын
@@mephistoss238 It is sustainable, debt to gdp ratio is not what determines your vulnerability to default. Russia's debt to gdp ratio was low when they defaulted in the late 90's, meanwhile Japan's debt has gone up as high as 250% and yet they've never come close to default. Whats the difference? One had sovereign debt, and the other had debt denominated in foreign currencies. That is the key to assessing your potential for default, how much of your debt is in someone else's currency. If anything is unsustainable, it's a balanced budget. Because the private sector relies on government deficits to stay afloat. If the government balances its budget, it would be pushing the deficit onto the private sector, thus causing a recession. Every recession in US history has occurred after a period of deficit reduction
@sopota6469
@sopota6469 Жыл бұрын
Corporate taxes 9% vs Individual Income taxes 54%. Can you guess what happened around the 80s when debt started to climb? The loopholes made things worse over the years.
@ajamessssss
@ajamessssss 4 ай бұрын
Exactly
@ShubhamSinghYoutube
@ShubhamSinghYoutube Жыл бұрын
Risk free return rate of Bonds is just like AAA rating on MBS in 2009.
@SamAronow
@SamAronow Жыл бұрын
Failure to raise the debt limit is very similar to returning to the Gold Standard- it's simple and can be stated in a single sentence, but in the context of an entire economy is just a complete self-own that does nothing but make the country and most people poorer. Greece defaulted because it _couldn't_ pay; the US defaulting would be nothing but a _choice,_ effectively punishing society for the crime of functioning (such as it does). And all to make life harder for old people and poor people.
@TocnaelStarcraft
@TocnaelStarcraft Жыл бұрын
Borrowing against the future without regard will make the punishment worse in the end the entire monetary system is a scam meant to enrich those that have direct access to the money printer
@luisfilipe2023
@luisfilipe2023 Жыл бұрын
A debt limit is good in theory but in practice it’s just a tool of political bickering
@whannabi
@whannabi Жыл бұрын
Road to a 100 trillion
@raylopez99
@raylopez99 Жыл бұрын
Under a Gold Standard we'd not have a "debt limit crisis" since you cannot, with gold, manufacture money out of thin air, as you can with fiat money. Unless you believe in "money non-neutrality" (a fancy way of saying, short term, you can grow an economy by printing money, a bogus concept espoused by both free-marketeer Milton Friedman as well as his nemesis, socialist John M. Keynes), then fiat money is the reason we have a crisis now.
@annoyingcommentator1582
@annoyingcommentator1582 Жыл бұрын
Oh noes those poor old people who got in that situation through nothing but their own stupidty. They set up the sytem in the first place, let them face the consequences. If they really are good people their children will likely remember. Otherwise what makes them so special? Let them eat scraps like everybody else.
@joelgritter5492
@joelgritter5492 Жыл бұрын
I just came here to say that this video's thumbnail with you peeking out from a sea of bonds is hilarious. Thanks for the laugh
@tomte47
@tomte47 Жыл бұрын
The average maturity of the debt is about 5 years so current interest payments still mostly reflect the previous super low rates. Right now expiring debt is being refinanced at 4-5% interest rate, if current rates stay for a few years interest on just the current debt will be around 1.5 Trillion. About Twice what is being spent on defense ! The U.S was running a Trillion dollar deficit during "the good times" before COVID when it should have been paying down the debt. Now it is at 1.5 Trillion, recession is knocking on the door and there is nothing left to fight it with.
@WHITE-pz8sv
@WHITE-pz8sv 7 ай бұрын
Brew with bagel is the best lol
@thekrustychub5038
@thekrustychub5038 Жыл бұрын
Who wants the US Debt to decrease... 🙋‍♀️🙋‍♀️🙋‍♀️🙋‍♀️🙋‍♀️🙋‍♀️ Who will vote for a candidate that increases taxes and decreases social programs... ...
@grimaffiliations3671
@grimaffiliations3671 Жыл бұрын
That is why it is foolish to aim to cut the US debt. The private sector relies on government deficits
@calebfrieler4033
@calebfrieler4033 2 ай бұрын
Or they could maybe start holding some of these government agencies accountable for having taxpayer dollars just disappear. The DoD hasn’t passed an IRS audit is 20 years and there is something like 3.1 trillion dollars that they just have no idea where it went. That is 3.1 trillion taxpayer dollars just disappearing into thin air that could be used to stimulate the economy or pay off debt. The DoD is also only one agency, there are plenty more with probably just as high amounts and money like that stacks up FAST.
@jsauerfinancial8257
@jsauerfinancial8257 Жыл бұрын
Similar for Canada, but we will have to take on more federal debt to bail out our housing market, corporate sector, and possibly (Hopefully not) our financial system because of our private debt bubble
@stever197037
@stever197037 Жыл бұрын
When the Pentagon says it doesn't know where trillions of dollars went every decade. It would seem that they are responsible for the budget not being balanced. Also responsible for all of the national debt.
@Omni00
@Omni00 Жыл бұрын
Ty
@BobBob73271
@BobBob73271 Жыл бұрын
I ate a plain bagel for breakfast today
@email5023
@email5023 Жыл бұрын
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