Asking a real estate agent whether you should buy a home right now is like to asking an alcoholic whether they think you should have a drink lol. Homes in my neighborhood that cost around $450k in sales in 2019 are now going for $800 to $950k. Every seller in my neighborhood is currently making a $350k profit. Simply unreal. In all honesty, deflation is what we require. The only other option is for many people to go bankrupt, which would also be bad for the economy. That is the only way to return to normal.

The Banks over appraised and over loaned now everyone is paying for it

Tons of price cuts in Burlington over the last week. I hope this accelerates. We need real estate prices to come back to reality as it will improve the mood of our whole nation.

The fella's advice to not list at this time speaks volumes. Agents thinking that they can continue manipulating the market the way that they have for the last few years. Love your charts and analysis! Thank you Jon.

Keep the BOC rates as they are..price decline is a result of this. The low supply scare is a scam.

I'm hoping there will be a housing crisis so I can buy cheaply when I sell a few houses in 2025. As a backup plan, I've been thinking about purchasing stocks. What advice do you have for choosing the best buying time? On the one hand, I continue to read and see trading earnings of over $500k each week. On the other side, I keep hearing that the market is out of control and experiencing a dead cat bounce. Why does this happen?

Hallelujah!!! I’m the favorite, $60,000 every week! Now I can afford anything and also support the work of God and the church.

Love the fact that everything you are saying is coming from somewhere (real data) and not only your point of view ! Thank you

They can only prop it up for so long, then at some point. Boom!

They better starts declining.or this country will never recover from depression of the real estate crazy insane hight prices.

Great charts i agree with you 100% if we want to save the housing market prices will have to come down to match incomes and banks will have to reassess what is affordable for home buyers

Canadians are the most house-addicted people on the whole planet so it's not surprising sellers are resisting price drops this hard. I think a lot of Canadian homeowners would stop feeding their pets or their own families before they'd stop making mortgage payments. With rates this high though and no end in sight, big price drops are all but inevitable. 2025 is going to be the biggest year of mortgage renewal pain in Canada's history and the listings inventories and price drops are going to reflect that.

You're not begging for " Like and subscribe " like other channels. Love ❤️ it.

The last chart says it all

Excellent video Jon. Your chart of long term trend line analysis of real estate cycles was very insightful. This global real estate crash has just started and real estate prices in Australia, New Zealand, Canada, USA, China and Europe will crash down to their 2012 levels within the next few years. Caveat Emptor!!!

Hi Jon and thanks as always for your analysis. I think one significant piece of data is missing from your last chart the "mean line" analysis, and that is the significant increase in money supply during the pandemic. Since our dollars are simply not worth as much due to the printing of money, it isn't surprising to see that prices have gone up above the mean line, and could remain above the mean line. While I don't doubt we are entering a period of price declines in REAL DOLLAR terms, the prices in ABSOLUTE DOLLARS may not decline as much as you expect due to the devaluation of our currency. Perhaps try to chart the mean line in real dollar (inflation adjusted) figures and it will give some further insight. Love your channel and keep up the great work!

Supply and demand. Prices won't drop much...

For those who believes that BoC rate cut would save the RE market. Short statistics in Canada: -Jan, 2020: monthly average salary = 2x monthly mortgage payments. It means a person with an average salary could pay two mortgages; -May, 2024: monthly average salary = 1.2x monthly mortgage payments. It means a person with an average salary can barely pay one mortgage; Unemployment rate is same for both periods equals around 6%. In addition, in the period 2017-2019 average house price dropped around 10% because Bank of Canada hiked rate from 0.5% to ONLY 1.75%. Unemployment was around 6%. And the monthly average salary = 2.2x monthly mortgage payments. In conclusion, with today's mortgage rate around 5.4% to achieve the pre-pandemic ratio (monthly average salary = 2x monthly mortgage payments), the average house price should drop around 30%. Moreover, if BoC drops the rate to 3%, the average house price still should drop around 14% to achieve the pre-pandemic ratio. P.S. in 1991, when Canadian housing marking was crashing, the monthly average salary = 1.03x monthly mortgage payments which is almost same as it's now. And the market bottomed in 1997 when the monthly average salary = 2.5x monthly mortgage payments.

The mean line for Canada is an interesting data point. But what would have much more relevance is the mean line per major Canadian Cities. As the saying goes, in Real Estate it is all about location.

It's definitely alarming to hear about a default cycle, especially in the context of the housing market. Defaults can lead to foreclosures, and that has a cascading effect on the overall real estate landscape.

Thank you for your insight. I think you are right on. Glad I found your channel.

Kingston On. area has a lot more listings currently than in recent years...and they're still selling but taking longer on average, and below asking from what I'm told. With a lot of projected gloom and doom there may be some thinking last chance to sell... but what they're moving into beats me.... rents have never been higher despite a lot of new rental going up.

Get ready for a second wave of rate hikes.

Thanks for keeping it real as always Jon.

Another informative update from Jon. Lovely head and shoulders pattern there on the NARSP. $490K is my downside target

You are right Jon, on stock charts, we often don't go too far from the daily 20 sma (20 days moving average)

Keep ‘em coming. You’re doing the Lord’s work.

Great info as always, thank you

I agree we will revert to the mean (and that's why an investor has to work with this information, instead of making emotional decisions.)

Thanks 🙏 Jon

Bubble, crash

Wonderful research based analysis! Much appreciated.

The decrease in pricing it is mostly because of condos. Single detached homes are still going for the same amount at least based on what I see. By any chance you can include in your future reports ? it would be very nice to see the difference .

I see lots of "New Prices" on Centris around Montreal these days. I don't follow the downtown Montreal market, but it looks promising.

The story is not just supply side (sales). The kind of demand we have for housing in Canada can only be compared to post-war years in the 50's, unless somehow no one wants to buy a house, the kind of "crash" people are expecting will not happen.

Mr. Sinclair has a "vested" interest not only on the Agent side but I would assume he is part of the "investor" Condo owners and he does not want to suffer a loss... you, however, are exactly right on the mark with your "mean" value chart. What comes up... goes down and vice versa. The part of that chart that should be terrifying to people is to look at what they thought the value of their home was (or was going to be) and where the value is going. In today's world a little more common sense and a little (lot) less hype would be refreshing and so was your show today, thank you!

Fantastic information as usual

Gratitude

Wow, an agent tell you not to list then he quietly list his property for sale, how nice? In this world, I only remember this very true phase that has stood the test of time" I only care about my myself. "

This happens frequently! real estate sits on the market with no buyers. It gets re- listed again to make it look new on the market. How are we supposed to know as buyers how long something hasn’t sold at their asking price?

A lot of people panicked about the Jun 1 capital gains tax and listed their rentals..in Brampton anyway.

in 2025 prices will be 100k down from todays prices. BET!

MLS shows so many duplicate listings. Looks like there’s more listings than actual . Same property listed 2-3 times.

good to see prices ahey must are way out of line to what people earn... crazy the must come down by a large amount

Been waiting for this correction or crash to reality for a long time…. Taking way longer than I ever thought it would but going to love to see it come down. 2 real life examples I know real numbers…..friends sadly made big mistakes….because charts don’t show these…. Brantford, new build row towns… 500 k from builder in 2017…. 2 re sold at the peak for 950k!!!! 1500 sq foot nothing special row town…. Same units are now listing for the last 2 months…. 600k and not selling!!! Brampton, investor bought from builder 1.9million…. Got the key, listed it and best offer he could get last month was 1.8…. Plus commission and closings costs etc…. He had to write a cheque for almost 200k to close on the deal or be sued. Many more coming… been a long wait….i hope the wait will be worth it.

With respect, I think the mean line analysis is a useful tool, but I think the conclusion that we'll revert to the mean isn't a sure thing. I think we could just as easily point to 2021 and say "... and this is where the government devalued the currency 20%".

Hi Jon … how did you establish/ compute the mean line?

Prices are going down in ottawa. EQ and Parkview just decreased their prices towns starting at 500000s and EQ singles 700ks

Looking at different scenarios on how this can play out, and the longer the market moves sideways, allowing the "mean" to catch up, then less shallow the dip below the mean (ie the market corrects in time versus price). In practice, this could be a price correction over the year and then sideways for several years. I suppose I am asking myself, are too many people expecting the market to correct, find a bottom and then move upwards as in the past. We could get a correction, then a several years of slow sideways actions allowing the mean line to catch up (because of high rates, eventually new supply the gov't is trying to kick starts) before things start to appreciate. That would be more like the 90s model or celtic bubble and the US financial crisis.

Where is this really happening? Houses are selling for 10-20% over asking in Calgary.

the charts looks like i bought at the exact right time March 2013.

Well, I finally see a decline in my Mississauga neighborhood (Erin Mills area), a ravine house on a street that was selling for $2.2-2.3M during Covid frenzy, now sold for $1.85M

According to the chart, house prices are down from 50% above mean to 20% above mean, so that’s a 30% correction already which is a very steep correction historically. Its possible prices remain relatively flat for years if the expected BOC rate cuts happen which can prevent a further 30% correction from here, so the ascending straight mean line can catch up to the current prices over time, and that will create a revision to long term mean line Jon is talking about as well.

Hey Jon, Do you think with the amount of youth leaving the expensive areas is going to drive up prices in the traditionally affordable areas? In northern Ontario it wasn’t rare to see bungalows listed at $2-300k, and now to get something at that price is 700 sqft 1 bed 1 bath unusable basement. Do you think prices will revert in the northern areas? Because they’ve essentially doubled in the past 4 years

Ouch. 50 percent swing?? Its a hurricane.

numbers dont lie, Jon is one of the realtors that tell it like it is and I respect that 100%

These statistics are interesting but they are too general. We have to look at more specific market like Vancouver, Toronto, Montréal, because there are so many differences between them.

Those are some mean facts right there...

..If your betting the the Calgary ( and area )housing prices will drop in the next year you may get disappointed.

Al Sinclair on CP24 is the worst RE pumper. He will never directly admit a downturn.

Mean numbers are a lagging indicator. You are not factoring in the massive increase in demand (population) and the shrinking supply (new starts dropping off). I believe this will push up the acceleration of the mean average. It's not a huge amount, but it's there. Prices will drop, that I'm sure of, but not -20% of the mean. More like -5% before it bottoms.

Yes i think we will see a decline from here on out especially if the link income verification to CRA data..i suspect alot of thise mom and pop and speculation investors will continue to offload what they never could handle to pay for....

We are seeing larger and larger price swings which indicates the market (or any market) is trying to find a new floor on lower prices. The market is in decline and probably will be for quite a few years into the future.

I think I'm very happy to have closed the sale of my house in March. I wouldn't want to be selling it in six months from now...

Long-term means depend on short-term prices. If the prices start coming down consistently this mean will get change as it is not a moving average. I don't think it is a good measure to judge the price level in the country. Prices are 300% higher than what we should have. But anyway, this is what this is, live or leave 😢

But, my realtor told me to book as many pre-cons as possible before the rate cut in June. Now I am confused 😕

I welcome home price going down though i own a home. It means the chance of quicker rate cuts!

Do you think this applies equally to smaller towns or cities? E.g. Fredericton, Saskatoon etc?

In a lot of small towns like I live in, houses are not selling for the past 6 moths. A correction is long over due .

It was a long cycle but finally buying opportunities are coming.

I don't see the decline in Vancouver BC. The prices are still high.

I can't believe the CMHC April report that stated 2025 and 2026 would see house prices zooming past 2022 prices and beyond. What is that all about, Jon? Does the CMHC just think pent-up demand and a rate cut or 2 will fuel more real estate craziness and speculative investment?

Curious what you think will happen with prices once boc decides to cut rates

It’s a universal law, what goes up will come down and here in this case it will be a huge crash.. country cannot depend on just a real estate.. here everyone talks about real estate .. and government is supporting only big players which is evident..

Mean line for longe than 15 years - try 30-40 or more years

*Amazing video, you work for 40yrs to have $1M in your retirement, meanwhile some people are putting just $10K into trading from just few months ago and now they are multimillionaires*

How about the impact of demand due to increased population in last 3_4 years. And of the influence of reduced interest rates in future? Shouldn't this help economy maintain the housing price at least, if not fuel the housing inflation?

Trying to hide a major problem by telling sellers to not list their properties is wishful thinking. Investors & genuine home owners are struggling to find tenants or keep their properties. The bubble will pop soon everything is out of whack. Bringing more people into Canada to backfill empty landlords properties will just push Canada even deeper in the red,

Last couple weeks, I've watched other agent videos going on and on about the BOC dropping rates in June like it's a foregone conclusion and at the same time the US treasuries going in the opposite direction pushing 4.9-5%. I'm pretty sure the treasury/bond markets have this one right. LOL. The gov't needs to step in and tax investors at a commercial rate. Push them out of the market. Increase supply. Great video Jon. Thanks. As far as I can see, we are still in a correction. Al Sinclair is a wild pumper. He makes me sick quite frankly. He's been saying for decades properties are just going up and that the prices aren't overvalued. I've been saying for 12 months we need a 25% drop. I totally agree with what your charts are saying. Although given the crazy situation we are in, I don't see a big overcorrection below that mean line.

8:28 'prices ultimately always revert to the mean' I really want to believe this but I think state intervention against the market might get in the way of things. Across the political arena all parties see housing as a commodity and a component of the economy. harming the value of real estate will translate into harming the economy.

i found condollo to see prices evolution in Montreal

I don't see prices going down in Durham courtice ....prices are so high

these houses are still overprixed and need to come down in value. once this housing bubble is gone only then we can expect some relief in canada or else life would just be hell.

That last chart, though. Revert to the mean….oof!

The charts are fairly neutral. I know you want to extrapolate and "hope" that prices are going down, but going back pre-2020, the inventory numbers are getting back to normal. One month of declines does not mean "we'll likely see declines for the rest of the year".

He says don't list....if you don't have to cause it will further bring prices down

Why does there need to be a down payment??? We should be able to apply with the bank for the full mortgage with pay stubs and employment history , family income , expenses etc… and get a 20-30 year mortgage paying the full amount . 90% of renters pay more than what that mortgage would cost them monthly. This should be a referendum in the next federal election. Thoughts?

Nobody can afford to sell a low mortgage home, especially if home values have fallen because of rates. ie, low to mid priced homes.

Imagine my pay kept up with cost of living 🤯. Yet I'm capped out 🙃

Serious question what do you expect prices to drop by for it to be reasonable?

Keep wishing bud. Marginally lower with high interest rates. Once the rates come down a bit prices will go back up. We are at the low point. And it’s still not that bad.

Prices in decline? Not for long if trudeau has his way. He has publically said he doesnt want home prices to come down because retiring people need high prices. Seriously.

Don't put it on the market Translation: I run first, you stay.

People still over bidding almost 100k over asking in windsor tho. Sub 600k houses

Interesting to see where the money will go if investors realize RE in Canada is no longer profitable

My old man installed the eves trough on that house in the background 😂

I'm patiently waiting for the revert back to mean.

I don't know why you're fear mongering, Jon. The "experts" told me the 25 bps rate cut by the BoC that has been on its way for over a year now will save everyone 🤣

Hi can you talk about Calgary - seems like it's the opposite

He is telling ppl not to list so that he can sell all his condos.