I have a condo shoebox prediction. The developers built far too many shoe boxes. I see a total crash in prices of these units. Enough so that buyers could snap up clusters in line and row, and just knock down walls and convert to family sized units. But the price has to drop to around $200k. So 4 units in a row would be $800k. $250/$350 in gut renovation and you have a lovely inner city family sized apartment.

History has shown that the number of defaults climbs after the first rate cute. It took awhile from the first rate increase to get to the silent boil everyone with a mortgage renewal is feeling. It is not going away with one measly rate cut. Also if they were waiting to get a potentially higher price from buyers because of a rate cut, the flood of listings will only accelerate the price cuts. Especially as more desperate sellers come onto the market - it only takes a couple to reset lower for the next seller. 2025 is the bloodbath mortgage renewal year. prices lower then

Its peaked. Investors are pulling out. They made their money, they want out. The frenzie wearing off.

Good info, thanks.

Thanks for a great video, keep up the good work!

The fact that a million dollar delta exists between average condo and average house tells me the floor price for livable condos isnt that far away.

But Tom, what about C8 condos YTD? Looks pretty "normal" to me. Is it possible we are going back to "golden nugget" locations go UP, and everything else goes down? Thank you to everyone involved in GTA urban planning and highways who have created the traffic problems. Your incompetence will put money in my pocket. I'm pretty confident if it wasnt for massive investor selloff, C1 could look exactly like C8 YTD. But it has 4x the active listings.

It is a blood bath

big fan of the stache

How is it weird. Toronto is way over-priced. People are losing their jobs and leaving Toronto. The cuts will be too little too late.

Hi Tom, which one is more walkable and has better rents between area around CN Tour vs ROM? How about the price for a 2 bedroom condo? Thanks.

Based on Housesigma, the difference between a detached and a condo in Toronto is $1.21M

Strange that nobody makes the connection with the cap gains tax increase. Some investors hope to sell before the deadline, once that passes, the listings should subside. Why does everybody always think a trend will last indefinitely? Now, I'm not fan of newly built condos, but a bit of a price pull-back and cut in rates should find enough buyers.

worst situation of all is clients upsizing to house from condo

It's a buyer's marker if you want a shoebox.

Hey Tom. I’m looking to buy a condo up to $900 000 in cash. 2 bedroom 2 washroom. For a buyer obviously a condo building that doesn’t allow air bnb, has a good conceriage, good built building and floor plan are important factors in future appreciation. Obviously with the interest rate now many condos have depreciated but looking from 5 -10 years from now what top 5 condos do you think are good to look at if looking to sell in the next 10 years or 15 years. Thanks !

Why isn't the over supply resulting in lower prices? Does it just take more time for prices to revise??

With rate cuts it’s the bottom

Suppose I’m a first-time buyer, about to risk my life’s savings and a chunk of my parents’ as well. I see interest rates starting to move down while at the same time listings are becoming more plentiful. Why not just wait until rates are even lower and even more inventory becomes available before making that huge risky purchase? This is how first time buyers are thinking and it’s precisely why they are sitting out the market right now. They won’t come back until sellers capitulate and delist.

Etobicoke houses by far buyers market strangely

Change the flipping rules, audit all the buyers account whether their NOA match justify their earnings and they are eligible to borrow from banks and not just somone is paying you rent. Set guideline values for houses and audit all the realtors on the ethics...I might sound offensive but this isnthe reality out there...

Only 10% Investors-High-Income Earners can play in this Market....No Average Income Family can or will be able to Afford these prices....Bubble is about to burst and 1 Million property is going to be 500k...Lots of people are going to be bankrupt...People playing Equity-Equity will see their Equity disappearing - Abra-ka-Dabra...!! Stock Market-banks -abra-ka-dabra

I paid 1400/ft for lake views in the heart of the city, and I will be putting 50% down on each!

Investor are all pulling money out of the GTA . Nobody pays their rent anymore. Then they’re stuck in this long legal battle, trying to get tenants out of the home they own.

Tom's the man!

Hey wanna go dancing 💃 🎶 🙂 let's leave this crap behind

Bying a one million property in a country where bank dont offer any fixed rate mortgages and where the economy is in sharp decline with high interest rates is mental.you buy a house today , after 3 years the bank of canada raise the interest and boom ,now you cant afford paying your mortgage and the bank confiscate your property 😂😂😂😂😂

Look. Any dude whose first name is “Tiff”….just assume that he started so far ahead of most Canadians that it’s almost ironic that we seem to think he has anything but a disinterested thought about interest rates for Canadians. He’s like our PM….never EVER touching the unwashed masses. Just sayin…

For all of you who lack common sense and may not ever travel outside of the city. Let me remind you that a person like myself who works in construction; Building decks, doing roofs, tile, flooring etc etc is making under 40,000$ per year in my 30s.. Let's do some math in this joke of a country.. In order to EVER own even a box in this province where the average cost of one of those boxes is 900,000$ I would need to work for 24 years straight and never spend a dime on gas, food or anything else.. Every penny I would earn would be tied into a cookie cutter box for the rest of my life. That is the state of this country.! In the gutter.. People talking prime locations in Toronto? What career are people specializing in these days where they earn 900,000$ in a relatively short amount of time? How much debt do these people add up on their credit card and mortgages!? They are the reason this country is in the state it is in to begin with! Debt society where the bank types up random numbers and lends them out at interest...

Middle class family cannot support these prices at a sustainable fashion. It is just a math. What will happen is really unpredictable. In a developed democratic country shelter should not be a privilege.

The detached market will take off and it will start to bring condos back up. Putting a floor on condos too.

They need to cut more aggressively to protect the market

So all these people able to buy property, in an economy where the majority of people have been screwed out of the market, are upset that they have to sell off they're second investment properties they bought to exploit the airbnb market? Shockingly when you make investments you are not guaranteed a return!!!! That's called an investment!!!!