Exactly how badly do you have to mess up the economy for it to matter in Turkey?

It's crazy that the majority of the Turkish voters are somehow happy with his consolidation of power or his clear lack of economic knowledge, tanking the lira. I know everybody blames their leader for inflation. But he kept firing anyone who suggested increasing interest rates for years. Something the rest of the world knows and has seen is exactly what you do in the last year. It's a total mystery to me. No country has liked their dictator in hindsight.

You have a very big discrepancy in your take on Sinan Oğan's endorsement of Erdoğan. Because Oğan is the figurehead of ATA alliance but is not part of the parties that constitutes it. All parties that are under the ATA alliance which got 4 percent of the votes in parlimentary votes disowned Sinan Oğan immediately and give their endorsements to Kılıçdaroğlu. Other some percent of the young voters that voted for Oğan felt betrayed and still to this date berates Oğan for treacherous behavior. Therefore most of the votes for Sinan Oğan will probably go towards Kılıçdaroğlu and not towards the Erdoğan's side. Given that you are not familiar with alliance system it is okay to to take that Oğan represents all of its votes but in truth it clearly is not. Even though it is a bad and half... take it is good that international coverage is there.

Correction at 1:52: Muharrem İnce has never been the leader of CHP (Republican People's Party). He was the presidential candidate of CHP for 2018 presidential election. In 2021, he left CHP and founded MP (Memleket Partisi / Homeland Party).

On the same day, Thailand also went to the polls to choose between a conservative military-linked government which seized power in a coup (Thailand has a long history of military coups) and a freewheeling civilian opposition. Not only did the Thais impress by completely demolishing the military government, but the most liberal-minded party actually won the most votes in the election, to the shock of almost everyone. So it is not true that countries which has seen long periods of rule by the military or dictatorships will naturally prefer them. The Thais impress me far more than the Turks.

I could swear, every time you predict a result, you jinx it. So I hope it goes this way, too. :D

21 years in power, still popular & winning elections. That is amazing!

imagine calling erdogan "passionate turkish nationalist" 😭💀

The opposition coalition once again messes up their chances by their own choices. How many elections is that now? Fumbling the ball must be their special talent.

This is why term limits are a thing.

There's a reason democratic countries limit the terms of the head of state - to prevent too much consolidation of power that would lead to dictatorship. If Erdogan gets another term Turks would be stuck with him (just like the Belarussians are with Lukashenko, Russians with Putin, Syrians with Assad, etc.) for the rest of Erdogan's life.

I recently watched a 3 part documentary titled ‘Turkey’s economy -the untold story’ which dispels a lot of the negativity portrayed by western media against President Erdogan and Turkey. It shows how the Turkish government’s focus on industrial diversification, infrastructure development, monetary and fiscal policy implementation reversing the effects of dollarisation and supporting economic growth and energy independence is actively shaping Turkey’s future and that President Erdogan’s policy of lowering interest rates has led to a significant boom in Turkey’s exports given that it is situated at the heart of strategic global supply chains. This is contrary to the conventional method employed by the Federal Reserve and other central banks to tackle high inflation (caused mainly by uncontrolled irresponsible injection of currency into the economy and manipulation of monetary, fiscal and government policies) of raising interest rates so people have less money to spend hence reducing demand, which has been contested by distinguished economists like Joseph Stiglitz in his recent report titled ‘The causes of and response to today’s inflation’ and the Australian parliament’s economics committee which argued that ‘raising interest rates could be the wrong response to inflation driven by international supply chain factors rather than excess aggregate demand.’ Raising interest rates would result in unnecessary high unemployment, cause harm or bankruptcies to households and businesses as well as nations especially ones dependent on the US dollar and other world reserve currencies. Turkey’s economy is currently undergoing some hiccups, but that is a reflection of the fact that Turkey is not immune to external supply shocks that most developed and developing countries are facing today, exacerbated by COVID-19 and the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict. Turkey has adopted the right fiscal policy response (reducing interest rate to mitigate effects of a supply-side induced inflation) and is very well positioned to reap rewards of a strong rebound, in particular when inflation recedes and the global economy improves in the business cycle. The Turkish government could ramp up its effort in educating the public about the significant economic progress it has achieved since it came to power in 2002. Besides being an effective communication tool, such an approach would go a long way to help uninformed voters, especially the young cynical voters who feel a sense of hopelessness, that Turkey’s economy has done exceptionally well in the last two decades, and is poised to do much better once recovery takes hold.

sinan oğan nominated by victory party. Victory Party declared support for Kılıçdaroğlu.

Update: Umit Ozdağ (Sinan Oğan's political partner and head of Zafer party which received just under 2% of the votes in the parliamentary elections - 1 million votes) chose to support Kılıçdaroğlu in the second round. This should give Kılıçdaroğlu a boost in closing the gap however, looking at the gap in votes and the fact that Sinan Oğan has chosen to support Erdoğan, it looks like Erdoğan will probably win this election.

Great report!

Im not surprised. If the Turkish people are satisfied with the way things are and want to continue on the current path then its up to them at the end of the day.

Well guys, I live in Istanbul now and yesterday I saw Kılıçdaroğlu banners with sign “Süriyeliler gidecek”, which means “Syrians will leave”. Is it democratic? Do you still feel like it is a battle of dictatorship and democracy? I don’t see it. I don’t tell Erdoğan is ideal politician, but when you just read in all media that he is dictator, it doesn’t automatically mean that his opponent is for democracy… And as for being Russian, believe me, true dictator should have improved 49.5% for at least 53-55%, it is easy in real dictatorships like Russia )

Anyone who saw the first election results and didn't know for certain that Erdogan had already won before the runoff started is simply refusing to see reality. Erdogan simply remains popular despite his dislike among Western people.

To all Turkish people, don't give up! Vote and make everyone around you vote. KK can still win if you keep supporting him and spreading his ideas around.

I follow your channel quite closely and have to say that this video has to be one that has completely misunderstood the Turkish elections ever. Firstly Mr. Oğan has no personal votes, he was chosen as a probable candidate by four political parties that are Nationalist in nature. The votes that he received were mainly from 1. supporters of these parties 2. Supporters of Muharrem Ince once he pulled out 3. Good Party voters who voted for their own party in the parliament and Oğan in the presidential 4. undecided nationalist young first time voters. So I have to make two things very clear, there is no chance that the voters of Oğan will be transferred to Erdoğan as they are a block that is rigidly against the AKP and secondly yesterday the four parties that showed him as the president candidate now has made a protocol and announced their support for Kilicdaroglu. This new support has created an enormous effect with the nationals in favor of Mr. Kilicdaroglu. With the current ruling method since 2017 in Turkey winning the presidential elections is much more important that winning the parliament as the ruling is basically outside of the parliament.

I remember when TLDR were confident that erdogan was going to lose. 😅

Several pollings in Turkey said Erdoğan was going to win. This probably effected the results somewhat, but not by much. Since Erdoğan staying in power is the status quo. From this, I can only conclude western media was picking sides by saying Kılıçdaroğlu is going to win. You know, to instil hope in people who want change. Now we have to endure him for 1 last term (hopefully), which will probably be even bolder and unapologetic then how he was before.

you nailed the pronounciation of Kılıçdaroğlu's last name this time around. Your pronounciation of Ince's last name however, was the funniest thing from your videos so far

I believe the victory for Kilicdaroglu is unlikely but not based on your analysis. In fact, the TLDR demonstration is a very weak one given the fact that they are not counting the electorate which did not vote in the first round (almost about 10 millions) and Ogan's electorate was mostly the borrowed protest vote which would not follow actions of pretty much Ogan's fabricated leadership. In fact, in Ogan's electorate, anti-Erdogan votes invade a greater place than anti-Kilicdaroglu votes. Moreover, Ogan's ultra Kemalist nationalist alliance system (the so called Ata alliance) rejected his decision and sided with Kilicdaroglu. Ogan actually committed a political suicide since both his opposition alliance and ultra conservative nationalist ally of Erdogan, the leader of MHP, Bahceli denied him. The Political prospects are bad for Ogan, neither for Kilicdaroglu or Erdogan. Either can win but Erdogan has a slight (but slight not great or unbeatable) advantage on the basis of great support from the rural areas and the negative effect of the official Kurdish (Green Left) support for Kilicdaroglu on Turkish conservative nationalist electorate basis. In fact, Kilicdaroglu was able to lift some confidence after the poor performance in the first round with his last actions like allying with ultra right Ata alliance and the popular TV broadcast (the so called Babala TV) he attended. Again, the TLDR, you should have the assistance of a Turkish reader with a political grasp of Turkish context. Apparently, you have given too much weight to Ogan's decisions.

Turkey have been only recently cuting interest rates. Before they were very high and it made people and businesses to borrow on forign currency. This was the cause of do high initial inflation and exchange rate collapse

Omg who wouldve thought that our continuous propaganda that Erdoğan will lose was all a lie 😅😅😅😅

in other news, the turkish lira lost even more value today

5 more years of Erdogan means I can continue to make cheap Turkish vacations jokes :)

As an economist I actually want Turkey to just cut rates to zero, I have my popcorn and morbid curiosity ready

As a Turk i may not like the policies of Erdogan but i am just glad the elections were free and no civil war happened, that's the most important thing. I honestly don't think economy will get better and am scared about the Hudapar influence in the government and think any other candidate from opposition would have performed better but people of Turkey made their decisions so nothing i say or do will change the fact we will be ruled by Erdogan again and i can only pray at the end of his third term, we are still a democracy and we still have the freedom to change the government by democratic means if we decide enough is enough (which we might or might not, i can't understand the thought process of elderly citizens)

The Fact that Erdogan didn’t get re-elected first round shows

Reactive nationalist politics has not "developed under Erdoğan" it is the entire basis for the modern Turkish state.

It's weird that every English person I hear talk about this Turkish election pronounces Oğan's name wrong. They all say Erdoğan correctly and even Kılıçdaroğlu. They see that the ğ in those names is not pronounced like a regular G, but then they just ignore that for Oğan and pretend it's Ogan.

This is not an uncommon outcome. The opposition really really want to get rid of the guy in office because he makes them cringe so they nominate the greyest centrist they can find in hopes of gaining votes from other side while keeping their own. This works so rarely it's amazing people still think it's the way to go.

Bro, before criticising turkish economy, please learn and study it first and not just quote what you hear on mainstream media. As a matter of fact, Turkish economy has grown by 2% in past 2 years whilst the British and US economy has dropped. US dropped by approx 2% and UK by almost 11%

I was actually expecting Erdogan to lose and then a cue for him to remain in power... but anyway.

No EU or progress for Turkey then, shame

there is too many mistakes in video 1-when Kılıçdaroğlu said he will send refugees back to they countries people supported him 80%-90% of Turkish population doesnt want refugees 2-erdogan isnt a nationalist if I have to describe erdogan ''nationalist'' would be the one of the last thing I would say 3-kurdish ethnicity map at 5:18 is very wrong 4-terrorist groups like PKK is hated by all in Turkiye and Kılıçdaroğlu himself said he will show no tolerance to them so he isnt going to start a collabration or smth with terrorists there is also some minor mistakes I didint mentioned

5:40 It's extremely clear that they edited it...

7:37 seems like the same feather flocks together.

Oğan's endorsement is a bit misleading. He had no real support for himself, he was just endorsed by a number of parties, especially the Victory Party. He was also well known for criticising Erdoğan a lot, which is why a lot of his voters seem to have felt betrayed by him. The leader of the Victory Party also endorsed Kılıçdaroğlu, so I feel he really does have a chance.

I know this will get lost and that is fine, I just want you to know how much I appreciate the work that TLDR does. I am a news and economics nerd and had been an avid reader of the Economist. I think that you guys do a great job of writing and presenting the news. Thanks for all of your hard work!

Neat

Why is there such a big difference at the end of the video and the promotion?? no way thats the same person😃

It's not probably , it's basically a done deal , it just goes to show little western press understands other countries social dynamics

That's good news

its expected bec of the 3rd candidate in the 1st round damnn thats a bold tactic huge gamble if fail big lose if succeed total victory its just a weird crazy idea or last scenario but i think that will probability could happen erdognan survive to fight another day

I remember maybe 2 weeks ago you made a video about the same topic and gave it almost the same name even, the only diference being that you told everyone that he is (probably) going to loze

"Erdoğan is passionate Turkish nationalist" Does Erdoğan know about this? 😄

People here making comments here really have no idea of Turkish society or politics. Western commentators simply cannot fathom the fact the Turkey wants to follows its own destiny and no panders to the west. Whilst he has messed up the economy, look how far Turkey has come in the last two decades. Overall economic growth, better health care, and infrastructure and greater standing in the global order etc... People know this and do now want an unknown quantity who is appealing to anti-immigration sentiment.

I guess for a lot of people, Nationalism and identity politics really does fill as a substitute for food...

Wow what a big surprise 😂😂😂.

I feel bad for the young people of Turkey who is stuck with Erdogan. The economy is failing massively (negative GDP in dollars during Erdogan´s rule, rampant inflation etc.).

There is no chance left, we lost. It'll be disastrous to spend 5 more years with Erdoğan

Looks like Turkey is about to learn a lesson that arrogance always comes before the fall, while simultaneously teaching NATO that you should not trust a country that does not have a proven track-record of democracy with the ability to veto your choices. NATO needs a no confidence equivalent that keeps membership in tact but removes ability to influence NATO's major decisions without removing you from the alliance. A status which remains until you regain the trust of at least 50% of members. Basically a "we don't trust your ability to make choices" option that needs 90-80% of members to be distrustful of said member, even if just to keep foreign forces from blocking NATO by just influencing one member.

Honestly the 10 million surprised me saying he was going to send them back going extreme there and actually taken a liking to the opposition but still support them

How bad do you want the economy to be? Turkey: Yes

God help you all, Turkiye.

the fact that you still show bolsonaro in your titles defines your channel completely

It’s almost as if the coalition did not want him to run because he has a bad track record with running against Erdogan but he was so stubborn and they caved in and now… he’s losing. Wish I could have seen that coming lol

5:04 Erdoğan is not a nationalist in any way. He just “aligned” himself with the nationalists in the last few years because of the increasing nationalist population in Turkey. Prior to 2017, we can even say that he was quite anti-nationalist (in my opinion, at least). He had sayings such as “he got Turkish nationalism under his feet”, a direct insult to the nationalist population. Back then, he was trying to appeal more to the Kurdish populaion in Turkey and had even taken photos with people who are today considered PKK terrorists; something a nationalist would never do. To sum up: Erdoğan is not a real nationalist. I could even argue he has failed to portray himself as a nationalist even today due to his official alliance with the pro-free Kurdistan party HÜDA-PAR; a direct political extension of the Hezbollah terror organization.

So no economy

bro says erdoğan is nationalist :D

anyone here should watch money and macro's video on the turkish economic situation in order to better understand it. people need to stop spouting "interest rates interest rates" when they don't understand anything about the situation

Erdogan calling anyone an autocrat is a far fetched idea, much less Biden LMAO

Turkey Will closer to SCO and BRICS. How come Turkiye dictatir where the ruling party had only 35%. To rule president need negotiation, sharing power Aming his coalition. Look, Turkey is multi parties, while US is only two parties. Which one is more democratic??😂

Within 3 hours!

The problem is that the opposition in Turkey is no better if not worse than Erdoğan. In that Kılıçdaroğlu has never shown any success in terms of policies and is clearly incompetent. While Erdoğan is not good at economic management, he is able to run the country through it and even more importantly he's still better than what he replaced. People are choosing the better evil as there simply aren't any opposition candidates that won't be worse (Sinan Oğan may have been better but he came in too late to gain significant support).

Geopolitics can be so depressing sometimes...

lot of salty westerners in these comments

High interest rates is death for businesses. Business must be allowed to develop and grow.

This channel would be much better if you didn't insist on putting adds in all of your videos

Him winning is bad news for the economy, but I think he is the more stable option between the two. Seeing the voters of the CHP party, they are very inconsistent, there are racists and hardcore nationalists but they have also liberals and well educated individuals.

It's a self inflicting defeat by the narcism of Kilicdaroglu.

After Erdoğan's victory, TLDR NEWS got quiet. 😅😅

Its always the wrong choice when who you elect can't be pushed around or bullied by bringing democracy to a country near you

At least he’s Not a western puppet

DAMN I THOUGHT HE WAS GOING TO LOSE LIKE YOU MENTIONED IN YOUR THOUSAND VIDEOS 😂😂😂like i said its always the same With people like you

The race will be very tight at 51% to 49%

Inflation is controlled once businesses grow

An anti refugee left candidate , that can only happen in turkey 😅

Erdogan mocked Kilicdaroglu for being a serial loser, and he's right, this election was more of a Kilicdaroglu losing than Erdogan winning! if the CHP nominated the mayors of Istanbul or Ankara they would have a very very good chance! Kilicdaroglu simply blew it!

I believe you need better resources

I'm gonna guess some money were exchanged

Looks like his heavily invested propaganda campaign and arab migration worked out

They shouldn't have picked Kurichderolo to lead the opposition. I knows i probably spelled his name wrong.

There is no way ogan can move his supporters to Erdoğan.

At the end you said that the coalition made a mistake with chosing Kılıçdaroğlu, which I disagree with. Mansur Yavaş, one of the other two possible candidates, is on the rather nationalist side of the CHP, and the Kurds already said that they wouldnt vote for him. So even if he was more popular among Turks, choosing him wouldve led to the pro-kurdish parties also sending in an own candidate, which would steal around 8% from Yavaş, therefore basically guaranteeing he loses. Ekrem İmamoğlu on the other hand has a trial going on for insulting the leader of the country (which btw makes no sense at all) and so it would be very risky to send him in, as he'd probably win, but would then surely be found guilty and his presidency revoked.

Propaganda channel owned again

Congrats President Erdogan, you are a deserving winner! Much love, from UK ❤

Kutting the interests rates is the just policy!. Kilictaroglu 😂😂😂.

I just don't know how these numbers are going to flip flop. The reelection seems redundant at this point, specially, when the 3rd runner is supporting Erdoğan.

❤Erdoğan is the best president Turkey has ever known. He has made Turkey a paradise and a great power. ❤

I mean the opposition ran the same guy 3rd time in a row against the same guy what did yhey expect. Also Turks remember how Erdogan took them out of the dark times of the 90s. I dont understand why westerners are so self centered. Just because you dont like the guy does not mean nobody else either.

This is the funniest shit ever after months of telling us Erdoğan will loose and turks hate him 😂 🤣 😭 but he some how gets 49% of votes reminds me of 2016 elections when everyone said only racist will vote for trump

Not (probably) *Likely*

We love Erdogan the great Türkish leader! Greetings from HUN-gary!

I've never really understood why the west despises Erdogan, like what did he do? he's a good president overall, Turkey has really improved since his election, and sure maybe he's not the best economist but literally everyone is suffering economically not just Turkey, Turkey needs a good leader more than it needs a good economist right now. Also apparently the main argument for people who are anti Erdogan is that he's a religious person? like are you guys serious? are you insane? and somehow Erdogan is the authoritarian one?, grow up. Edit: spelling.

K-rolu deserves his share of the blame aswell. Pure ego-driven run and people saw right through that. If erdogan could not have asked for a more beatable opponent

You’re completely wrong Erdogan reached to his maximum votes with the 49.52 percentage.About the Sinan Ogan: You’re right,he said he is going to support Erdogan in this election.However,leader of the alliance who made Sinan Oğan a president candidate,Ümit Özdağ said that he is supporting Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu also other important nationalist said that they made a mistake by supporting Sinan Oğan.I don’t say Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu is the favourite in this election but there is no favourite in this election.From my perspective, winner of this election won’t get more than 51 percentage of the votes he’ll get something between 50 to 51 percentage of the votes.