U.S. Treasury To Issue Over 1 Trillion Dollars In Gross New Debt In Q2 | John Comiskey

  Рет қаралды 30,956

Blockworks Macro

Blockworks Macro

Күн бұрын

Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) vaneck.com/HODLFG.
VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) Prospectus: vaneck.com/hodlprospectus/
John Comiskey’s day job does not involve processing reams of data on the daily deposits and withdrawals of the U.S. Treasury’s bank account in order to predict how much the U.S. government will borrow and when. He does that at night. Comiskey joins Forward Guidance to share how he taught himself the workings of the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet before realizing that most of the action was at the Treasury, not the Fed. Comiskey shares in great detail the predictions about how much the U.S.Treasury will borrow in 2024. Filmed on January 24, 2024.
__
Follow John Comiskey on Twitter / johncomiskey77
John Comiskey’s Substack: johncomiskey.substack.com/
Follow VanEck on Twitter / vaneck_us
Follow Jack Farley on Twitter / jackfarley96
Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter / forwardguidance
Follow Blockworks on Twitter / blockworks_
__
Use code FG10 to get 10% off Blockworks’ Digital Asset Summit in March: blockworks.co/event/digital-a...
__
Timestamps:
00:00 Introduction
00:14 John's Start In Market Plumbing (Why Fed's Listed Balance Sheet Originally Didn't Go Down When Quantitative Tightening Started in 2022)
06:02 Debt Ceiling Ex Date In 2023
09:27 Treasurys: Coupons vs. Bills
15:30 The Treasury's Quarterly Refunding Announcement (QRA) In November 2023
22:36 Q2 Quarterly Refunding Announcement (1.1 Trillion of Gross Issuance, Comiskey Expects)
27:20 VanEck Ad
36:12 The Goals And Obligations Of The U.S. Treasury
43:51 Why Is The U.S. Deficit So Large?
53:19 Some States Have Been Very Late With Paying Their Taxes
59:34 The U.S. Fiscal Deficit in 2024 and Beyond
01:04:40 Comiskey's Doubts That The Fed Will End Quantitative Tightening (QT) As Early As Some Expect
01:11:49 Is This All Sustainable?
01:16:51 Concluding Thoughts
01:01:04 Private Credit And CLOs
__
Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Пікірлер: 71
@BlockworksHQ
@BlockworksHQ 5 ай бұрын
Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) vaneck.com/HODLFG. VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) Prospectus: vaneck.com/hodlprospectus/
@libertysprings2244
@libertysprings2244 5 ай бұрын
I had my own retail business for 10 years with employees. I wrote a lot of checks made out to the U.S. Treasury. I finally closed the business when I realized it was the Treasury making most of the money from my business, not me. Broken down to the number of hours I spent on the business, I was basically making minimum wages myself. Never again.
@slowridefpv9668
@slowridefpv9668 5 ай бұрын
And it still isn’t enough for Uncle Sam.
@rd9102
@rd9102 5 ай бұрын
LOL, sure you did.
@k98killer
@k98killer 5 ай бұрын
Jack, I appreciate your podcasts. You do a really good job.
@WelseyWalker
@WelseyWalker 5 ай бұрын
This is a great Video! I really appreciate the dedication in each video you post, I would be glad if anyone here can explain a few things to me about investment, I believe it's my time to shine for a better future
@georgebasonathan4784
@georgebasonathan4784 5 ай бұрын
I'll advise you to work with a financial advisor.....Building a good investment portfolio is more complex so I would recommend you seek Fergus Waylen's support. This way you can get strategies designed to address your unique long/short-term goals and financial dreams .
@Georgina705
@Georgina705 5 ай бұрын
I'm surprised that this name is being mentioned here, I stumbled upon one of his clients testimonies on CNBC news last week...
@HLO-iy2bp
@HLO-iy2bp 5 ай бұрын
YES! that's exactly his name (Mr Fergus Waylen) I watched his interview on CNN News and so many people recommended highly about him and his trading skills, he's an expert and I'm just starting with him....From Brisbane Australia
@charles2395
@charles2395 5 ай бұрын
Well, you are saying the fact. I invested $4,000 with fergus Waylen. and earned $12,000 .
@adamdouglas9888
@adamdouglas9888 5 ай бұрын
New survey has revealed rising adoption of cryptocurrency among the world billionaires, as they start experimenting in the digital currency, expanding their investments portfolio beyond traditional profitable assets.
@stnickleless
@stnickleless 5 ай бұрын
Love you my man! Always love your material, and interviewing skills!!
@tombox2759
@tombox2759 5 ай бұрын
Is it possible that George Carlin was correct when he stated that America is a freak show?
@tactileslut
@tactileslut 5 ай бұрын
If grandma Yellen is funding the military by clipping coupons, well, you have your answer.
@christofferskaarer2866
@christofferskaarer2866 5 ай бұрын
Great catchup, you are both great!! ❤ miss you on the weekly roundup with mike , tyler !
@mattanderson6672
@mattanderson6672 4 ай бұрын
Thank you !!
@thetremendoustim
@thetremendoustim 5 ай бұрын
Thanks for doing this, this was so informative
@BR-hi6yt
@BR-hi6yt 5 ай бұрын
After programming other things are easy. I was a programmer and now I can follow economics and even medicine easily.
@jeffkojac4121
@jeffkojac4121 5 ай бұрын
Thanks!
@wolfsden3
@wolfsden3 5 ай бұрын
How many times do I need to report the fake AI Michael Saylor ad 🤦🤣
@tactileslut
@tactileslut 5 ай бұрын
Why do you keep making this complaint as a comment to the channel? There's no Saylor ad baked into this recording. What you see is apparently coming from KZfaq: not Jack's problem.
@user-nf1vu8wf1q
@user-nf1vu8wf1q 5 ай бұрын
Presale excitement building up! Xeventy's project is making waves for all the right reasons.
@caselaw_sponge1055
@caselaw_sponge1055 5 ай бұрын
Perfect idea
@user-vm9qt8jx4n
@user-vm9qt8jx4n 5 ай бұрын
Presale participation locked in. Xeventy's bonuses are a sweet deal for early adopters!
@Joeblow49
@Joeblow49 5 ай бұрын
Thanks everyone I was able to add more to portfolio about 67 percent extra this week so far
@hedgedrisk
@hedgedrisk 5 ай бұрын
thank you to the host for interpreting him, people need to stop using so much industry jargon and abbreviations when explaining something, unless this convo is just for a private group of people. if it's to teach general public or even someone just trying to learn...introduce what the abbreviation means FIRST then you can use it as much as you want and jargon is inappropriate at all times (again unless this isnt meant for a broad audience). this doesmt seem like a bar/pub setting so please tell your guests to remember their audience.
@johncomiskey1053
@johncomiskey1053 5 ай бұрын
A totally fair critique and something Ill keep in mind in my future writings (or interviews should I be interviewed again). I agree Jack does a great job as an interviewer interpreting the material for the listener, which given most of the subject matter he covers (particularly when it spans the financial system plumbing/mechanics) is a pretty tall order. Anyways, appreciate the feedback.
@hedgedrisk
@hedgedrisk 5 ай бұрын
@@johncomiskey1053 the problem is you know more than you think you know😂and those of us actually interested in understanding the bond market actually care about trading investing and insuring. thanks for the help, you gotta be patient with me and my fellow C students 😎
@jonmurphy776
@jonmurphy776 5 ай бұрын
Undoubtedly the total national debt is equal to the total interest paid since the Revolutionary War. !😂
@deepuv7
@deepuv7 5 ай бұрын
Is this data of 1T in Q2 accurate though?
@BlockworksHQ
@BlockworksHQ 5 ай бұрын
we will see but the 1.1T figure refers to gross coupon issuance, not net issuance. it excludes bills and doesn't account for redemptions of U.S. debt
@modelmark
@modelmark 5 ай бұрын
They can tax back the interest they pay out on bonds, but people will keep buying them bonds .... clear
@tonya1604
@tonya1604 5 ай бұрын
Q2 is Apr to Jun. The TBAC sheet says (71)b. That's negative 72 billion. Where are you getting 1 trillion??? i guess they expect a lot of taxes in April and maybe spend down some of the 750B ending balance.
@BlockworksHQ
@BlockworksHQ 5 ай бұрын
Gross coupon issuance, not net borrowing. Latest info released today (Monday): home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/jy2054 John's numbers are pretty close to what was released. The QRA comes out in two days (Wednesday). -Jack
@RecklessG1
@RecklessG1 5 ай бұрын
You are correct.... it is gross.
@hi-if7lj
@hi-if7lj 5 ай бұрын
It's called a ponzi scheme
@Weetorp
@Weetorp 5 ай бұрын
Gross debt, not Gross new debt.
@davidanalyst671
@davidanalyst671 5 ай бұрын
Jack asked. lets look at the budget, and see why its so screwed up. And John ran his mouth for the next 10 minutes, talking about everything under the sun
@maddysys
@maddysys 5 ай бұрын
I think investors should always put their cash to work, especially In 2024, we'll start to see more market diversification. I'm hoping to invest about $350k of my savings in stocks this year. Hope to make millions in 2024.
@user-wj7cv9hb5j
@user-wj7cv9hb5j 2 ай бұрын
Wow bots are alive here hey 😂
@heinzbucksandcastle2053
@heinzbucksandcastle2053 5 ай бұрын
Who would buy a bond when the dollar is getting crushed? When you had your returns, you lost a ton of money when you consider inflation. Make 5 and lose 7 percent every year? What?
@Augusto88359
@Augusto88359 5 ай бұрын
Who cares? We have a 20 trillion gdp. 1 trillion is nothing. That’s like grandma putting 1000 bucks on the card when her pension is 20,000. Big deal
@justincadle7070
@justincadle7070 5 ай бұрын
Banks are making loans with no reserves. That’s a big deal.
@thebarryman
@thebarryman 5 ай бұрын
That's a horrible analogy. In your comparison, how much debt is your grandma sitting on already?
@jcgoogle1808
@jcgoogle1808 5 ай бұрын
We have $34 trillion in debt and growing currently by $2 trillion each year. Doubling the debt every 8 years, And this is why the average American allows democrat politicians to steal from tax payers to buy votes, to empower and enrich themselves,. destroying the dollar, the country and your standard of living. Wakeupdumbass and get educated. Here's why deficits are larger now than they were in 2019. (This info is pulled from the congressional budget office as of about 9 months ago). The 2023 deficit is probably closer to $2 trillion. This insane senile ole joe admin and the demcorats have continued to unnecessarily spend 50% MORE in 2021, 22, 23, 24,.. (all of it deficit spending adding trillions to the debt each year),...years after the pandemic is over,...... than was spent the year before the pandemic started,... and we're not even in a recession. Getting our fiscal house in order isn't hard,..(Just like we have to do at home,..). it's just a matter of getting the demcorats to stop stealing from tax payers and deficit spending like drunken sailors on country destroying liberal pork and demcorat vote buying. To do this, we first have to define the problem,.. Federal spending went up 50% from 2019 to 2020 because of covid. And then it has remained there years after covid is over. Federal Government spending,.... Year.......Receipts.........Outlays.........Deficit 2019 3,463,364 4,446,960 -983,596 Prepandemic Trump 2020 3,421,164 6,553,621 -3,132,457 Pandemic Trump 2021 4,047,111 6,822,470 -2,775,359 Post Pandemic Biden 2022 4,897,399 6,273,324 -1,375,925 Post Pandemic Yr 2 Biden 2023 4,802,483 6,371,827 -1,569,344 Post Pandemic Yr 3 Biden There is absolutely no reason the spending should continue to be 50% higher than in 2019 prepandemic, years after the pandemic is over. Spending should have returned to 2019 levels when senile ole joe took over. Digging further into the details,... (This info is pulled from the congressional budget office) 2019 - Pre-Pandemic Mandatory - Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid,.... about $2 trillion Other,...$650 billion Descretionary- Defense,... $676 billion Nondefense,...$661 billion Net Interest Pmts - $375 billion. Total $4.4 trillion 2020 - Pandemic Mandatory - Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid,.... about $2.1 trillion Other,...$990 billion Covid Related Mandatory - (But should have ended when 2021) "Paycheck Protection",... $526 billion Unemployment Comp,... $473 billion (was inlcuded in the"other" total in 2019) "Recovery Rebates",...$275 billion Descretionary- Defense,... $714 billion Nondefense,...$914 billion Net Interest Pmts - $375 billion. Total $6.6 trillion 2021 - Post Pandemic Mandatory - Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid,.... about $2.3 trillion Other,...$1.1 trillion Covid Related Mandatory - (But should have ended ) "Paycheck Protection"... $290 billion Unemployment Comp,... $392 billion (was inlcuded in the"other" total in 2019) "Recovery Rebates,"...$733 billion Descretionary- Defense,... $742 billion Nondefense,...$895 billion Net Interest Pmts - $400 billion. Total $6.8 trillion 2022 Post Pandemic 2 years Mandatory - Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid,.... about $2.5 trillion Other,...$520 billion Covid Related Mandatory - (But should have ended) Paycheck Protection,... $290 billion Unemployment Comp (Changed to "Income Security"),... $581 billion (was inlcuded in the"other" total in 2019) Student Loan Forgiveness,...$482 billion Descretionary- Defense,... $751 billion Nondefense,...$910 billion Net Interest Pmts - $500 billion. Total $6.3 trillion There's nearly a trillion in covid residue money and student loan foregivness votebuying money.,.. that still may be up for grabs iif senile ole joe gets his way. And we spend 4 times what chinadoes ondefense. If we can't beat china with 4 times the spending,.. then we need to get a new military,..because this new protransgenderpedofile military is nothing but a useless money pit,.. that will in the end have us losing a very expensivewar withchina. Wrt SS, medicare, medicaid,... means test, raise the retirement age for anyone under 30,.. close the pheckingborder and stop letting half the world's dregs hop on US tax payers' backs. This can be fixed and we can get to a balanced budget,.. just need to get rid of the demcorats and the MMT deficit spending liberal deep state.
@Augusto88359
@Augusto88359 5 ай бұрын
@@thebarryman none. She’s dead
@georgetau3044
@georgetau3044 5 ай бұрын
Awful guest, extremely boring and monotonous
@tragicslip
@tragicslip 5 ай бұрын
not all things of value will entertain you.
@yzhere3745
@yzhere3745 5 ай бұрын
Georgetau3034 - I happen to agree with you. Not all 'expert' in their field have the ability to explain or articulate clearly the subject at hand. I was so looking forward to listening to this but it was incoherent and unclear. And that is in spite of Jack's sincere effort to elevate the conversation. Compare this to the interview with Michael Howell and you see what I mean. Terrible. I wish we could bring Micheal back for a second round of questions and clarifications maybe after the Fed QRA tomorrow.
@ElizabethWoosleyOberg
@ElizabethWoosleyOberg 5 ай бұрын
I think investors should always put their cash to work, especially In 2024, we'll start to see more market diversification. I'm hoping to invest about $350k of my savings in stocks this year. Hope to make millions in 2024.
The Rise And Fall Of The Age Of Debt | Russell Napier
1:13:03
Blockworks Macro
Рет қаралды 114 М.
아이스크림으로 체감되는 요즘 물가
00:16
진영민yeongmin
Рет қаралды 9 МЛН
OMG😳 #tiktok #shorts #potapova_blog
00:58
Potapova_blog
Рет қаралды 4,4 МЛН
I Can't Believe We Did This...
00:38
Stokes Twins
Рет қаралды 77 МЛН
THE POLICE TAKES ME! feat @PANDAGIRLOFFICIAL #shorts
00:31
PANDA BOI
Рет қаралды 24 МЛН
The Mag(nificent) Seven: The Seven Stocks that Saved the Market in 2023!
30:43
The Global Monetary Order Is Broken, Says Lyn Alden
1:46:43
Blockworks Macro
Рет қаралды 269 М.
Democracy at Work: Curing Capitalism | Richard Wolff | Talks at Google
1:25:34
Talks at Google
Рет қаралды 3,2 МЛН
Fed's Stealth Liquidity Is Fueling A Stock Market Rally | Michael Howell
56:20
1❤️
0:17
Nonomen ノノメン
Рет қаралды 13 МЛН
Мальчик помог мужчине спастись 🤯
0:50
Фильмы I Сериалы
Рет қаралды 1,5 МЛН
БОЛЬШОЙ ПЕТУШОК #shorts
0:21
Паша Осадчий
Рет қаралды 8 МЛН
رورو ضد رقيه🔫😲🚀 #shorts
0:13
رورو فاميلي | Roro Family
Рет қаралды 16 МЛН
Папа помог Дочке 🥹❤️ #shorts #фильмы
0:30
Нажимай выше ☝️☝️☝️ #а4 #глент #риви #viral
0:36
Как меняются люди
Рет қаралды 2,5 МЛН
DESAFIO IMPOSSÍVEL! #trending
0:13
O Mundo da Ágata
Рет қаралды 19 МЛН