There’s also an s500 out there somewhere that some analysts would really like Ukraine to test out.

As a Ukrainian, I'd like to correct one point. The Kherson battle wasn't a rout for Russians; they retreated pretty well organized. The Kharikiv situation was definitely a rout though.

Zeihan the Jim Cramer of geopolitical analysis

You Sir, deserve another sub!! Never heard such a rich and detailed summation of the ongoing Ukrainian frontline efforts as the one you just gave, this is amazing and saves alot of time searching the world wide web for information that you so soothingly provide! Thank you for this video.

There cannot be a Zeihan video without a prediction that something will collapse. lol

Just by the way . . . there are a lot of Ukrainians living in Ireland. They are magnificent! Most will call Ireland home into the future with kids in school and inter-marriage etc. My point, Ukrainians are mannerly, intelligent and hard working people. It is very easy for us in Ireland, to see why Russia has bitten off more than it can chew. The phenomenal U.S. Military support is all they needed along with the European support. The situation is so tragic. Needless death and mindless destruction. However, it has been a good kick up the ass for everyone!

Thanks!

Welcome to another episode of Wishful Thinking, with Peter Zeihan

Thanks, Peter!!

20-1 casualties by whos reckonning? Sounds pretty ridiculous

Zeihan is the most accurate reverse predictor I can depend on. I recommend him all the time.👌

Everytime I fancy a good laugh. I watch one of Zeihan's videos. Never fails! 🤣

At what point do the Russian casualties on the battlefield become a political problem for Putin?

Zeihan on US state department talking points never disappoints

Last years offensive should have been coupled with air power. The Russian defenses were crazy deep.

Enjoy your videos man, keep em coming! 🤙👍

"S400 are considered the best in the world"- that is a good joke) Old one, but still good)

Peter is the most optimistic Ukranian cheerleader. Last year he believed the Ukraines would walk through Russian lines to Crimea. Lol😂

I’m not sure Peter and I are looking at the same war 😂

Remember when this guy said that Russia only had supplies for 3 months?

Where can I read more about the 20 to 1 victory?

Is it 2024 in Colorado?

Never seen someone love hiking so much😊reminds me every time I watch a new video 😢how unhealthy my daily routine is😂 ty sir for everything 🎉

isn't the coming winter an issue for an offensive?

The question is does Ukraine have the logistics capability to keep those F-16's in the air?

Wildly overstated. According to a recent NY Times article: "Twelve pilots so far - fewer than a full squadron - are expected to be ready to fly F-16s in combat by this summer after 10 months of training in Denmark, Britain and the United States. But by the time the pilots return to Ukraine, as few as six F-16s will have been delivered out of about 45 of the fighter jets that European allies have promised."

As long as they don't park the F-16's out in the open......

Hey dude, where do you record these videos? Its incredibly beautiful.

That's a pretty good read on why the last Ukrainian offensive didn't net the results that a lot of people expected. I recall at the time thinking why was everyone so shocked, as 'we' (the west) helped to train up a bunch of assault brigades to fight like a western army, but then sent them back into a battlespace where the assets to fight that way were not in place. I would also fully agree that the seemed concentration of Ukrainian effort over the past few weeks in targetting high end air defense systems is indeed a shaping operation in preparation for the F-16s, to allow them greater freedom of action. I'm not entirely convinced that their realistic aim is to retake Crimea with a potential upcoming offensive. But I think that it is at least possible for them to break through somewhere on the southern front, thus cutting the 'land bridge', which would have the effect of further isolating Crimea and the Russian forces there, potentially making it untenable. An untenable Crimea makes the whole Russian invasion pointless, because let's face it, regardless of what they claimed their initial war aims were, a secure Crimea was clearly the actual minimum outcome that they really wanted (a conquered or at least subordinate Ukraine was more a preferred end state all going well ... which it didn't). So Crimea becoming untenable does create that bloody nose to Russian prestige that you mentioned as well. I think that you are correct in saying that even with a recaptured Crimea the war isn't over (short of an unexpected total Russian collapse). If for no other reason than they still have resources in the east of Ukraine, and could still potentially try to push to retake Crimea from a potential successful Ukrainian offensive. How likely that would be to work is at this point not really up for debate from anyone serious, as the Russians have not shown themselves to be overly adept. But just because they have blundered, a lot, doesn't mean that they should be discounted until they are thoroughly defeated. Overall, I'd call this video a pretty good read on the current situation.

Beautiful Colorado

Would be interesting to know what happy cocktail you using, amazing !!

I don’t understand what Russia is thinking. Are they going to defeat Ukraine, and then occupy them and dominate them and force them to follow their rules but not expect a forever rebellion from Ukraine?

20-1?! What evidence do you have

Thanks for the comment Pete. Your opinion on things is valued under my roof.

Thanks Peter, always appreciate your updates!

Peter please comment on WH Administration 'escalation management'. We in Ukraine just confused with it very much (shout-out to Jake Sullivan

What happened to those tanks you were so sure would do the trick?

Can Ukrainians operate and support F-16s or will it be US/NATO personnel? Is this just escalation to WWIII? Would it not be better to emphasize peace talks?

The mouse taunting the cat, until the cat unshields it’s claws 😔

Good update.

How did the last offensive turn out? I don’t remember

You always have such beautiful backdrops! And your insights on geopolitics are welcome, too...

All you have to do is look at the Ukrainian reinforcement situation. Ukraine should be pushing for peace, so much of their population has been decimated and much of the population wants peace. The Russians do not have a problem with reinforcements and that is why the longer this war goes on the worse it’s going to be for Ukraine. They need a peace deal.

It seems that nobody mentions decoys. It is used a lot by both sides. So when something is destroyed, you can't take this as a fact.

Thank you sir 🙏

You wonder where this guy gets his info? Rachel Maddow?

It wasn't all that long ago that Peter told us that Russia would stroll into Ukraine and crush all opposition. I'm not criticising him, I'm just pointing out that the only thing that is certain is that no-one really knows what is going to happen.

Thanks Peter

What camera do you use? The DJI Osmo?

I thought the S400s had been shown to be pretty poor in operation?

Good to see you 😎 Love your explanation of what's going on in this wild world 🌎

F16s mean nothing if the Ukrainian pilots cannot get the NATO doctrine. I have heard several commentators saying that it will be quicker to train new pilots that it is to retrain the experienced pilots steeped in Soviet doctrine.That is why the F16s are still not in Ukraine.

Where’s your video on the petro dollar

What is your source for 20:1 casualties in some battles?

Oh Peter, look behind you. I thought it looked like a Sasquatch. It was real blurry.

Even money says the Ukrainians lose half of their F16 fleet in the first month and then wonder why the rest of the world doesn't keep giving them more.........

To my knowledge f16 will be in limited numbers 6-8 this summer due to lack of trained pilots.

“What? F-16s? Well, this IS news”

The Ukrainian military is shaping the battle field and it’s going good.

One thing hasn’t been mentioned so far: Combat engineering. Mass combat engineering!

This is wildly optimistic. They are preparing something bit I think it is something we can’t predict.

Denys Davydov finally understood the fact that you need at least two trained pilots to run one F-16. Ain't gonna happen Zelensky. Denys is a commercial pilot with his own daily KZfaq channel.

What the H!! Zeihan actually saying something that gives some sort of hope for the future :) Seriously though - thanks for your thoughts Peter

The ukranians were pressed by their western allies to launch their summer offensive without air support

This man lives in a totally different universe from reality.

Using ukraine and offensive in the same sentence at this stage of the war is soooooo delusional

The point about the artillery in the combined arms war so far is: The better quality of the ukrainian shells (Ukraine does not bother capturing russian artillery any more) Now this is being supplemented with modern artillery pieces where each tube can put a salvo of 3 shells on the same target SIMULTANEOUSLY due to the different trajectories. This does have a devastating effect, because when shells start exploding around you, you take cover. That means that there is a significant reduction in casualties after 30 seconds of the first shell going off. This qualitative superiority alone gives the Ukrainian artillery a EFFECTIVE range (i.e. with same precision) of about 10%. With the decline of russian artillery - due to worn barrels and shitty ammo: That might even increase the effective range difference to about 20%. The russians are so bad at aiming, that they just flatten the target. You are right about the ukrainians shaping the battle space: Taking out radars and missile positions. The major aim with the deep strikes into Russia is that it forces the Russians to dedicate air defense systems to a large number of remote possible targets. There is now just one source of those systems: The front line in Ukraine.

If you read between the lines don’t expect anything to change. Peter is way more restrained in his prediction of a positive outcome for Ukraine in this video than he was in the past like his prediction on the 2023 summer offensive cutting off supplies to Crimea and forcing a humiliating retreat. Peter predicted 1 million causalities for Russia before the outlook of the war started to become clear. Russia is at about 500,000 so 1,000,000 is still a ways off.

It’s strange how every commentator seems to have their own facts. This guy sure seems confident Ukraine is winning, and so many others say the opposite. Only time will tell

The S-400 are very good SAM sites. They do need qualified people with some experience to manage those weapons correctly. That’s the problem they don’t have the training and people to manage those sites properly and they are getting destroyed.

Offensive? That's laughable! Just surviving the summer will be miracle!

Is anybody ever interested in a negotiated peace? All this tragedy was not supposed to happen in the first place. Even the kids in kindergarten know this in the neighboring countries.

Ukrainian pilots are having a very difficult time using f16s the way they were designed-some of their best pilots failed the course. Russian cold war tactics rely heavily on a ground controller. US doctrine relies much more on the pilot in the cockpit, not only flying his jet, but also running lead on his two-ship and 4-ship. If they fall back into those old cold war tactics the f16’s utility will be drastically reduced.

Hope Ukrainian don't take this guy seriously.

Thank you

This is certifiable crazy talk.

When Russia attacked Finland, it was one of their worst failures. Totally humiliating and shaped their attitudes moving forward. It did not create a collapse. It just redirected their energy. The closest thing would be the Afghanistan war. But did the failure of the war cause the collapse of the USSR, or was the USSR ready to collapse already? The Russian economy is in a very different place, fighting an existential threat on their doorstep. Equating Ukraine with Afganistan would be a mistake. Imagining that political humiliation will precipitate a collapse is narrow minded. If they collapse it will be economic. That event is a few years off. Too far off to justify not negotiating.

It's really time to get rid of Putin.

Shape the battle field ?! ... come on bro

“Next offensive “? That would be laughable if this entire ordeal was not such a tragedy.

The F-16 entered service four years before the invention of the Macintosh computer.. in 1984. For you youngins a Macintosh computer was made by a company called apple. The F-16 is 43 years old. Good luck Ukraine.

If if if… then then then… right… “The next arms delivery will change the balance of powers”, haven’t heard that one 10 times before…

Wasn’t the Leopard and Bradley talked about in the same way?

Passing through, for your comedy!

He's living my dream, run a KZfaq channel that makes plenty of money via breaks while hiking

i still think they are screwed. they are outmatched in weapons, manufacturing, economics (even with sanctions) and in leadership.

This falls into the category of pipe dream.

When is Bitcoin going to zero exactly?

I don't think the war will be decided on the battlefield. You just don't turn a soviet-style army (what Ukraine basically was) to a NATO-style one in a few years and expect spectacular results. Don't get me wrong: they are learning and adapting. But to start a full scale counter-offensive can turn out disastrously. I think they just keep on defending, and 'practice' with small offensives to gain a little bit. And meanwhile, they will keep the pressure on Russia by destroying key facilities that are important to their economy. There is a good chance that the end of the war comes from within Russia without any 'humiliating defeat' when Putin regime suddenly is replaced before any meaningful counteroffensive has started.

The implied timeline for a new AFU offensive sounds very optimistic as presented. I would be surprised to observe anything on a large scale in 2024

Peter Zeihan is the Lindsay Graham of geo politics. Gotta get those minerals...

20:1 casuality ratio? Where did he get that info from. Sounds unlikely.

Just so everyone knows, the Canadian Prepper is way ahead of Peter Z. You’re welcome.

F-16 won't work magic. EF-18 will definitely change the game.

Well spoken.

Wow Neocon Zeihan.

I would be most interested to hear Peter's take on the thesis that there is a divide between politically engaged voters, and politically disengaged voters who vote as suggested by Professor Yanna Krupnikov. If true this would favour Trump over Biden, contrary to Peter's analysis about independent voters being turned off by Trump, leading to a Biden victory.

The French used to build Mirage Fighter Aircraft . The Swedes , Saab Fighter Aircraft. I don’t see them way too happy to pony up money so Americans can ship their F16s for a war that, if won, will have an American base in Ukraine.

Due to the bigness ratio, I believe that Ukraine should go for the jugular and stop the petroleum flow. That's what predators do.

Thank you from Australia.