US Risks ‘Forever’ Trade War With China, Roach Says

Рет қаралды 126,305

25 күн бұрын

Stephen Roach, Senior Fellow at Yale Law School and former Morgan Stanley Asia chairman, discusses his concerns about US trade policy toward China and his latest assessment of the Chinese economy. He speaks with Yvonne Man, David Ingles and Stephen Engle on "Bloomberg: The China Show."
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Пікірлер: 901

@hpmoxie4660 20 күн бұрын

One of the few times Bloomberg allows somebody to tell truth

@kennethli8 18 күн бұрын

Roach has been dead wrong about China and the US economy for the last 15 years year over year.

@joey3291 21 күн бұрын

US doesn't want free trade when they can't compete... and 'Rule-based order' is the new fashion🤣🤣🤣

@tedmoss 21 күн бұрын

Rule based since we ended WWII.

@Sep-ty9hl 21 күн бұрын

@@tedmoss Then apparently free trade has been taken out from it.

@jiangmingliang71 20 күн бұрын

can someone pls teach Blinkin grammer: "Rule-based" as an adjective, and not "Rules-based".

@tooltalk 19 күн бұрын

When is China going to allow foreign battery competitors to compete in China's local EV market?

@joey3291 19 күн бұрын

@@tooltalk When didn't China allow that? The problem is those foreign companies do not offer competitive options.

@minibobjhu2523 21 күн бұрын

Finally, a guest who owns common sense and knowledge…rare these days on Anglo-Saxon media when covering China

@tooltalk 19 күн бұрын

He's a fairly well known Cee See Pee plant.

@redneckscumbags4422 19 күн бұрын

@@tooltalk you're a Cee Eye Ey plant?

@ibcyt 17 күн бұрын

@@tooltalk And you are well known NSA plant. 😂

@VictoriaEvelyn 17 күн бұрын

US-West have friends/advisors who do not have their best interest some of Indians is One of biggest cunning jackals masquerading as allies, China is Still very clear about their intentions.

@genelarson6849 16 күн бұрын

The anglo Saxon term tells where this moron is coming from

@gz6x 23 күн бұрын

Tariff is a hidden tax, but unlike tax it is politically favorable.

@annan7728 23 күн бұрын

It is the money that government takes from the businesses. It is the punishment on the business.

@larryc1616 23 күн бұрын

Yes true. It's a bipartisan sport to hate on China for the happiness of laypeople while they complain of inflation.

@pgdaszzz7399 22 күн бұрын

@@annan7728 Or consumers, in this case

@annan7728 22 күн бұрын

@@pgdaszzz7399 Money transfers from the consumers and businesses to government.

@rhena229 22 күн бұрын

Yes paid by consumers.

@thejeffinvade 23 күн бұрын

Green technology Overcapacity? We need all the capacity we can get to limit climate change 🎉🎉nice to hear that from an American

@ericzhou-y4t 22 күн бұрын

The problem is tariffs will not USA manufacturers more competitive. USA has plenty of oil and has no motivation of clean energy. On the contrary, China has energy crisis and puts all efforts in pushing the limit or energy industry. China wishes to use technology to overcome China's greatest national security threat. Now they want nuclear fusion and mining He-3 on the Moon.

@joey3291 21 күн бұрын

clear hypocrisy...

@lee123-it4si 21 күн бұрын

Because US can't compete with China, so they just made up this lousy excuse that nobody with a primary school degree really believes...

@tasreasfatemsa8266 20 күн бұрын

Still drive F150 to office work,alone.

@jeffrucks4477 19 күн бұрын

Cancel green.

@mysticalwind4632 22 күн бұрын

I only wished US politicians had some common sense like this man.

@vincenttay2812 20 күн бұрын

The root causes of the US problem are the carrot head politicians 😅

@vgstb 18 күн бұрын

Don't get your hopes up too high, you will be disappointed over and over and over again. All the US political landscape has to offer the voter is geriatric, dementing old sods that are deaf for the urgent needs of the American people.

@nancylove8360 17 күн бұрын

US politicians are bought by Israel. What do you expect?

@jackychen5578 17 күн бұрын

American politicians have common sense, but they are controlled by various interest groups and have to do things that go against common sense to get funds. This is the beauty of American democracy, so China does not adopt this stupid politics.

@nerenahd 22 күн бұрын

So rare to see a rational person like this gentleman these days. It's a shame 50%+ of the US population won't listen.

@Leah-ju8ht 22 күн бұрын

...perhaps it's because the populace is tired of word salads coming from congress The crop of politicians in congress have to be the most derelict in US history

@titusp9488 22 күн бұрын

Try 90%

@mariajiao4855 22 күн бұрын

Try 95%

@vincenttay2812 20 күн бұрын

Never mind if they are rational or not. China going to decouple from the US forever

@ssuwandi3240 19 күн бұрын

Most Elite schools Professors are indeed very biased these days. This one is truly a rare Gem esp in Yale and made it into this biased channel

@peterroberts2952 22 күн бұрын

Simple, avoid the US as much as you can.

@tooltalk 19 күн бұрын

good idea! China is going to miss out on the most lucrative auto markets, the US/EU, in the world!!

@user-ok6re8gv1q 18 күн бұрын

Survey 6mths ago of europeans showed 24% willing to buy China EVs. last month 50% willing to buy chinese EVs. De-risk from nonsensical schizo USA policies. De-risk from US$. De-risk from USA war culture. The 80% global south is heading there with BRICS begging China and Russia to get alternate things in place for everyone’s sake. Everyone wants EV ChinA Made bcos technically everyone admits that they are the best. This is HARD to say for some people.

@lordbendtner7021 18 күн бұрын

@tooltalk China has more drivers than US population. Try again.

@tooltalk 18 күн бұрын

@@lordbendtner7021 : sure, China sell more units, but less value. The avg price of a new vehicle in China $20K vs. US $50K. Even if China sells twice more cars, the US market is still greater in value.

@annonetwothree1177 18 күн бұрын

@@tooltalk Hahaha... Such arrogance and ignorance is hilarious. Period.

@unifieddynasty 19 күн бұрын

Hong Kong's wealth came from funnelling and facilitating trade between mainland China and the first world. With China's opening up, Hong Kong's decline in prominence was inevitable. But this does not mean that Hong Kong is going to cease to be important.

@kimpeater1 17 күн бұрын

In this case, the question is more of a political one than economic. HK is accustomed to a meritocracy. However, it now exists within a nation-state where Loyalty To The Party is the most important factor.

@unifieddynasty 17 күн бұрын

@@kimpeater1 Since you are acknowledging that Hong Kong's economic growth is a fait accompli, would you like to expound on exactly which countries in the world do not first and foremost prioritize loyalty to the country for its public servants?

@kimpeater1 16 күн бұрын

@@unifieddynasty nice but invalid strawman attempt. Loyalty to the Party in HK applies to the formerly meritocratic business community not public servants.

@kimpeater1 16 күн бұрын

@@unifieddynasty nice strawman attempt but invalid. Loyalty to the Party in this case is being imposed on the formerly meritocratic business community, separate from the public servants.

@asnark7115 16 күн бұрын

@@unifieddynasty All of Western "public servants" work for a set of interests other than the nations thy nominally "serve". For instance, all of Washington DC in the United States anwers only to the City of London and Beijing. Also, you have "country" confused with "government".

@polysporin8332 23 күн бұрын

tarrifs are BS. BYD new car that can go 2000km on a single tank of gas, for $14k. that is what the US is missing out on. Everyone in the US is used to paying a high price on cars, with lower technology.

@Meowmeow.age.6 22 күн бұрын

BYD cars are cheap Chinese junk. In Mexico they are already 50% off and no one wants them still.

@Leah-ju8ht 22 күн бұрын

"BYD new car that can go 2000km on a single tank of gas" "Amazing"

@user-wp4mp7yt8n 22 күн бұрын

Dude, it's too much.BYD is good, but it's not that good.Why didn't you say 20 thousand kilometers?

@miaomiaotoo 20 күн бұрын

I watched the test drive video, the final number was 2409 km! That is crazy! I can fill it up & forget it about until 6 months later charge again 😂!

@user-gn8nf7fv1t 20 күн бұрын

@@user-wp4mp7yt8n事实是2400多公里..BYD Seal 06 还有QIN Ｌ你可以搜索一下

@godzillamothra5983 23 күн бұрын

China is resetting its economy, gone the growth model that rely on property bubble, and export oriented economic model is also being restructured gradually to more domestic consumption based and high value added export oriented model. China knew that free trade is facing headwind, so the old model of exporting low margin goods is unsustainable. That's why China is investing heavily in new industrial revolution, like renewable energy, robotics, chips, 5G, etc. Of course it won't be painless, there will be a lot of strain and pain for the next 10 years. For HK, HK need to remember, it is a gate to China first and foremost. Without China, HK is a gate to nowhere. Needless to say, HK prosperity is tied to China. For the past few decades, HK have practiced unbridled capitalism that brought wealth to HK, but also high inequality, especially in housing sector. This inequality created resentment toward central gov. There is an easy way to solve the housing problem, let HKers who can't afford housing to purchase housing in Mainland. Pearl Delta River Region integration is the solution to HK problem. But this will take time.

@UKkenny 22 күн бұрын

HKers have been buying properties for decades in the great bay area ..recently , they have allowed the banks to faciltate the fundings of transfers from within a HK bank to mainland banks for house purchases .

@user-nj3jw6to5f 22 күн бұрын

China views the United States as its enemy and its ally; the United States' friendship with China is a one-sided fantasy

@pandagrandpa 19 күн бұрын

could not agree more, very insightful.

@MASMIWA 19 күн бұрын

China wants to escape the middle income trap and become a developed country. Along with China's rise, China wants the under developed countries to also aspire for economic well being. By doing so, China thinks world peace can be achieved. The fly in the ointment is the US. The US believes that as the hegemon of the world, it rules the world and will do anything in its power to stay number one.

@mmojave 19 күн бұрын

The capitalists are still having a strong grip over HK economy. And there are also a lot of "Anti-China" govt administrators in HK govt who drag their feet when it comes to change for the good of HK especially in providing public goods & services (like land reform, urban planning & healthcare).

@amatuer2 23 күн бұрын

Roach is an excellent guest. Glad he came on the show . And his statement " that not many politicians have taken an economic course " is spot on!

@jedi10101 23 күн бұрын

applies to both sides. politicians in democracies & politicians under the thumb of autocrats in communist states or dictatorships.

@akakakakakak3084 22 күн бұрын

Yellon is an economics professor.😅

@rhena229 22 күн бұрын

@@akakakakakak3084she’s employed by Biden; hence, can’t speak the truth anymore.

@fongcheongyat1446 22 күн бұрын

@@akakakakakak3084Even as an economic professor she has to act and talk stupid to keep her job.

@TheBooban 22 күн бұрын

He doesn’t even know the difference between a trade deficit and a budget deficit.

@williamlee2468 21 күн бұрын

The problem with the USA & Europe is that they don't know their basic Economic principles of Comparative advantage. China gets things done whereas other countries in the West have to debate everything before they do anything.

@nonyabizness997 18 күн бұрын

No the western leaders don't have to detabe things and do them slowly if it's of enough priority to them!! Did you get any consultation or much debating before they decided to invade Iraq? To bail out the big banks with your tax payers money? To send weapons and monies to Ukraine and Israel? Wake up and admit you are just not the priority!!!

@vgstb 18 күн бұрын

Yes, but at the same time, the US and the EU have had the opportunity to pillage their respective colonies for ages.

@tooltalk 18 күн бұрын

@@vgstb Oh the CCP's national motto -- the century of humiliation is alive and well. LOLL

@CanTho2022 17 күн бұрын

@@vgstb….that era is long gone. Amerikkka USED to be powerful….NOT ANYMORE

@kimpeater1 17 күн бұрын

Just knowing about comparative advantage doesn't really matter... You can't just double your population overnight, which is at the core of China's comparative advantage. Only time will tell whether this current massive population focused around relatively tight age range could become a problem later on...

@douginorlando6260 22 күн бұрын

After watching the financial system being used as a weapon against users, China has no choice but to create a safe international alternative … and they have chosen HK for this role because it already has international roots.

@tooltalk 18 күн бұрын

You mean like China's weaponization of rare earth metal against Japan in 2010?

@kimpeater1 17 күн бұрын

@@tooltalk Any nation with precious resources will guard them. That is natural and expected. However, the US weaponizing their SWFT network is something very different because it is a *voluntary* and *trust-based* network. No one has to join the American financial system, but most of the world does because the US guaranteed fairness and equality. This network benefits you as an American greatly. It makes your inflation lower than it should be. It makes oil cheaper for you than it should be. But once they weaponize it, then that trust is severely damaged. The Chinese have their competing financial network, and they're attracting more users because they don't pull rugs like the Americans do, at least not yet.

@thomasrogers9146 22 күн бұрын

THERE IS A HUGH DIFFERENCE BETWEEN POLITICIANS AND LEADERSHIP. AMERICA HAS POLITICIANS AND CHINA HAS LEADERS.

@usmankhalid9438 23 күн бұрын

As a American citizen, i am just thinking why 🇺🇸 have problem with every single country on this planet earth🌏. Just why bro 😕.

@user-lb2wi2bj9r 23 күн бұрын

the planet earth 🌍 is evil

@67buzzo 22 күн бұрын

The U.S think they can stay number one by bullying every country..But they are uniting…

@jchien 22 күн бұрын

Not true.

@ThebigJJ621 22 күн бұрын

Only the countries that it couldn't directly influence. Cause well, the good life we have in the US the past 50 years really depended on the dollar being the world reserve currency and us being able to use that to print and borrow trillions of dollars.

@cheongseeksam3502 22 күн бұрын

Incompetent leaders who can't lead America to be on the right path, need to fool the masses by directing the blame on China. Hate blinds voters.

@olliejohnson1733 22 күн бұрын

America needs more people like Stephen Roach who knows what he's talking about.

@CanTho2022 17 күн бұрын

“ALL politicians have NEVER taken an economic class!!” That is soooo true!! 😂

@daoistwanderer2671 18 күн бұрын

U.S. is losing time with missteps after missteps. From industrial policies to trade to geopolitics. While at home mired by all sorts of problems from immigration, border security, gun control, education and dilapidated infrastructure. Americans are suffering.

@gcoffey223 17 күн бұрын

Gun control? As in just have the government armed and trust tgem to protect you??

@nicholasdorie 22 күн бұрын

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@Kotak8 17 күн бұрын

All consumers in the USA and all other Western countries are paying high prices for the U.S. sanctions and high import tariffs.

@richlau531 19 күн бұрын

The only high paying job in the world that does not need qualification is govt ministers.

@nellyjohnson7316 23 күн бұрын

Slapping tariffs on Chinese products will lead to higher inflation rates here in the US.

@annan7728 23 күн бұрын

It is the punishments on American Businesses and the cause of inflation.

@Cotswolds1913 23 күн бұрын

in the short-run sure, but also more economic growth, less need to issue debt due to a lower trade deficit, more wage growth etc, and then in the long-run don't even have the inflation anymore, with much more export opportunities because we establish supply chains with developing countries who actually allow us to sell to them in return and don't get free access to our R&D every year.

@jedi10101 23 күн бұрын

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@jbranche8024 23 күн бұрын

Tariff or Tax. But direct me to where is the Tariff/Tax money go. I have Never heard a Tariff reduces our federal wage tax, builds roads, supports social security or reduces the National Debt. How can the government place a Tariff but Not have to detail where and what it will be used for.

@Cotswolds1913 23 күн бұрын

@@jbranche8024 most federal programs are payed for from general revenue, you don't assign each and every tax to a specific spending outlay. Only ones we do that with is payroll taxes for social security, medicare & unemployment insurance.

@yuppyhoo 23 күн бұрын

Finally, an adult in the room. The US needs to: - invest in STEM education to grow its manufacturing industries so as to export more. - reduce overseas military bases to reduce the deficit

@BabaYaga826 23 күн бұрын

Agreed. 💯

@Cotswolds1913 23 күн бұрын

Overseas military bases + the troops stationed on them are about $150 billion a year, and that's if you got rid of the all the associated forces, and got rid of all of it, which would be monumentally retarded. So in reality you're talking about tens of billions, against the backdrop of a deficit that's nearly $2 trillion.

@abc-mp5er 22 күн бұрын

Plus: stop smearing others and lying to the people all the time by the MSM and the politicians.

@kevinxie5762 22 күн бұрын

No, the US should lower their expectations on salaries. People haved earned more than they should for a long time. No matter from which country, people can produce the same products at a much lower cost. You cannot keep this forever. Innovation is important but not that important.

@Cotswolds1913 22 күн бұрын

@@kevinxie5762 You have the opposite way round. China should allow its currency to appreciate, let its people start importing more, stop subsidizing so much and let households take home a larger share of the pie, and thus the manufacturing sector shrink. We’ve subsidized your development for decades now, you guys like to say you’re a superpower now, so time to get up and walk on your own two feet like a big boy.

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@ChinaSongsCollection 19 күн бұрын

Hong Kong may or may not be over. But if it is over, it's because of the US placing artificial sanctions, boycotts, and whatnots on HK. Not because of China.

@308_Negra_Arroyo_Lane 19 күн бұрын

Hong Kong was always going to be over. Much of its appeal and function was as a conduit into China. A lot of that can simply be handled within China now.

@ChinaSongsCollection 18 күн бұрын

@@308_Negra_Arroyo_Lane Yes that's also true. But I'm pretty sure that if the people of HK were not so rebellious and prone to anti- China riots, the mainland government would do everything it can to prop up HK. So HK's status and importance would diminish, but it certainly would not be 'over'.

@fatdoi003 20 күн бұрын

HK can be BRICS financial hub.. also the earmarked development of the southern great bay area will boost opportunities for HK

@308_Negra_Arroyo_Lane 19 күн бұрын

All the banks that would be involved in BRICS are in the mainland, there's no need for HK.

@demomano9915 17 күн бұрын

No. Population of HK will spread into the mainland. Hongkongers are already going over the border for shopping and food as it is cheaper and for better service. HK will not be the BRICS hub for anything too many running dogs living there.

@umarjongi3590 20 күн бұрын

It's not forever, when china stop trading in dollar is gonna be over.

@navado75 22 күн бұрын

When our economy is built on consumption you will forever be at a deficit.

@gcoffey223 17 күн бұрын

When your central bank is private and owns your currency, you will forever have a defecit

@rifleman42051 23 күн бұрын

Trade Wars lead to Real Wars!!!!

@TacticalMayo 23 күн бұрын

That's inevitable

@annan7728 23 күн бұрын

It terminates capitalism.

@Cotswolds1913 23 күн бұрын

China was already waging a trade war with us, we merely responded. And not responding, that is to say continuing to empower Beijing, also makes war more likely.

@cheongseeksam3502 22 күн бұрын

@@Cotswolds1913 how did you come to the understanding that China is waging an economic war on US? Inferiority complex?

@520hong 22 күн бұрын

@@Cotswolds1913 What a retarded. Who started the trade war?

@linkxiao2237 22 күн бұрын

这也不准卖，那也不准卖。我看了很多美国人说车很贵，但是我们的便宜汽车又进不来，最终损害的是美国竞争力。

@gezhang-nu2vv 16 күн бұрын

美国车不应该很便宜吗？这次去美国，基本的生活物价确实非常贵。不知道是不是加州的原因。

@HanS662 23 күн бұрын

@0:45 the leaders call that “strategic ambiguity” which causes me to wheeze with laughter

@sepilokfui 23 күн бұрын

he is so good with his info, data and answer that the hosts seem careful to ask questions... respect for the intelligent and knowledge!

@kennethli8 18 күн бұрын

Roach has been dead wrong about China and the US economy for the last 15 years year over year.

@hello0704 20 күн бұрын

Koreans never forget to thank many countries for their help during the Korean War. Even children.

@gcoffey223 17 күн бұрын

Do you travel to Asia much? Koreans are some rude, racist mo fos that hate Americans. Not the older generations, but the one that benefitted growing up and their kids when we saved their ass

@dennislee4797 19 күн бұрын

How many lesson do you need before you know that politic and economy dont go hand in hand.

@kkchew18 22 күн бұрын

Stephen Roach provided sensible responses to queries raised by the 3 individuals. Unfortunately, he will not be able to change congressional leaders who are in debt to the many lobbies in the country.

@albertlowtengdak6511 22 күн бұрын

Haha.... US debts had been a 'death sentence' for US & it will drag the American citizens along.... 😢😢😢

@yiziliuxian 15 күн бұрын

I remember Roach once said he will never visit China/Hongkong again.

@prithbilimbu5314 18 күн бұрын

The good thing is people around the world are becoming aware of the truth.

@pleasantjourneys 23 күн бұрын

Forever is a nonsense word in this discussion

@stephenphillips6245 23 күн бұрын

Extensive, trade, dispute?

@ssuwandi3240 22 күн бұрын

His concern was Forever Deficit as no politicians addressed it. Only Trump!

@stephenphillips6245 22 күн бұрын

@@ssuwandi3240 It is so funny that, in 1999, they were worried about no deficit because Clinton's budget was so efficient. So, I wouldn't say no president doesn't care; good thing Bush did tax breaks and 2 wars to ensure there was a debt...LoL

@manofsan 23 күн бұрын

In related news, Bloomberg All-In On China

@censorshipagainstthemiddle6198 23 күн бұрын

You’re not? What pathway todo you see for American prosperity compared to China?

@manofsan 23 күн бұрын

@@censorshipagainstthemiddle6198 - Mike Bloomberg is all-in on China, and that's why his news channel parrots him. Falling growth, aging demographics, opaque system prone to capital misallocation - sort of like Bloomberg

@petergreen5337 18 күн бұрын

Well done Roach . A well REASONED and sensible argument.❤❤

@jerryrichardson2799 16 күн бұрын

No trade war is forever, fact.

@jw999 23 күн бұрын

The reporters here are way out of their depth...

@ssuwandi3240 22 күн бұрын

Businesses reporters who don't get economics101😊

@mattburrito 22 күн бұрын

their cowards that cant tell the truth to the public

@user-qd8yg1fp7i 21 күн бұрын

@@mattburritoYes!

@johnteets2921 18 күн бұрын

They're really thinking about their beloved inflatable boy scout.

@pareshpaul001 23 күн бұрын

Trade deficit not just with China but Taiwan also...???

@DC-qn4wz 23 күн бұрын

And the rest of the world.

@jillesdjon 22 күн бұрын

That’s usually what happens when one country’s top industry is financial services and the top export is “conflict equipment”… Unless you have a global war, you’ll never have a market big enough to balance your trade deficit

@geraldkohar 22 күн бұрын

Taiwan is China, China is Taiwan. You are talking about trade deficit between US and China. Taiwan is not a country. Google it, There are only a mere less than 15 countries in the world that supports Taiwan as a country, most of those countries are tiny countries with population less than 500000. Taiwan is not even in UN, so it is not a country by any standard. Taiwan is just one of China's provinces.

@Kukura001 22 күн бұрын

@@DC-qn4wz Yes, it's not sanctions. It's just isolationism. Uncle Sam has become a giant North Korea.

@cairn369 22 күн бұрын

@@geraldkohar Don't get so triggered, he never said Taiwan is a country, besides, thats not even the point, he just points out that the U.S has trade deficit with his beloved ally and yet didn't impose heavy tariffs on them. Although I also think Taiwan belongs to China, in the real world, people will treat them differently, whether you like it or not, it's a fact. By the way, since you are so eager to asure Taiwan is China, shows how vulnerable what you try to prove is.

@smling11 17 күн бұрын

He is what the US I used to know, was taught, and admired. Hope he can still keep his job after the interview.

@valeriavernon1151 16 күн бұрын

I regret that I won't be able to see these develpments, I am too old (82) and the world has become ever more interesting from day to day.

@AYVYN 23 күн бұрын

Nothing lasts forever, and if it did then businessmen wouldn’t care about it.

@karmicexperiment5034 22 күн бұрын

So true

@paulmccarter908 22 күн бұрын

It's not a risk, it's a policy shift to address a hegemonic shift.

@user-xt6mb1gg5r 17 күн бұрын

I am so glad that the truth being told in the USA’s media!

@zhanghaoze 22 күн бұрын

Hello Professor Roach, still benefiting from your class when i was in School

@eymeeraosaka2954 23 күн бұрын

Good analysis by Stephen Roach.....A man I respect...

@albertcadgame8314 19 күн бұрын

he only told half truth, ie. the 1st part of China beating US in almost every industry sector - this is the truth. The 2nd part is a lie about China's economy.

@user-ox2mz8ds7g 22 күн бұрын

I've read that a country that has the world's reserve money has to run a trade deficit. So if China or some other country had the world's reserve currency, they to would have to run a trade deficit. Don't know if it's correct though.

@yuey0602 23 күн бұрын

sometimes you just can not see a nation as a single entity. tariff may do no good to overall strategy, but it collect money for the government.

@secretsecret7730 16 күн бұрын

Why US has lost the know how that it had during the 50 ' s and 60 ' s ?

@jianlinzou3100 23 күн бұрын

you have a trade deficit with your favorite restaurant. do you stop going to your favorite restaurant but instead choose a much more expensive restaurant with bad food? 😂

@jianlinzou3100 23 күн бұрын

roach is objective, unbiased and straight forwardly on point

@clearheaded5696 23 күн бұрын

You actually mean to say objective, not subjective, right?

@zhaokwong5544 19 күн бұрын

Very intelligent.

@johnteets2921 18 күн бұрын

@@zhaokwong5544 Yes, intelligent economists tell the powers that be what they want to hear. Screw the hoi poli.

@kennethli8 18 күн бұрын

Roach has been dead wrong about China and the US economy for the last 15 years year over year.

@ShamileII 23 күн бұрын

Great discussion!

@kennethli8 18 күн бұрын

Roach has been dead wrong about China and the US economy for the last 15 years year over year.

@vgstb 18 күн бұрын

Given the pace that China is decoupling and derisking from the US (and the West as a whole) in every way possible (agriculture, industrial supply chain, petrodollar, international moneytary exchange systems, bonds&loans, etc...) the risk on a forever war with China is not a real possibility. China planned to have its global south network at cruising speed by 2030, but as things are going, the decoupling and derisking task will be realised by the mid of the decade.

@alphonsoquenneh1855 22 күн бұрын

Oh wow, is the only person who speaks the true! This is why items are so expensive in the US than ever before!!

@lfish57 23 күн бұрын

Tariffs are pay by us. We have to pay more for someone to make a political point. Everything is high cost as it is. Everybody happy to pay more?

@k54dhKJFGiht 22 күн бұрын

Thank you! Like everything that we do, we STILL maintain strategic ambiguity! It doesn't work, does it?! How much longer must we be our own worst enemy?

@davidhuttner9431 16 күн бұрын

Now I am really confused. Are you telling me that the Silver Spoons and the opportunists that suck up to them aren't all geniuses?

@acuantjahyadi7393 23 күн бұрын

Membeli Iphone berarti mendukung genosida rakyat palestina

@watb8689 23 күн бұрын

china already selling the Hybrid that can travel 2000km and selling for 14k. Much better than Tesla 500km range

@12time12 22 күн бұрын

You’re talking about a test vehicle, it’s nowhere near production ready.

@wision888 22 күн бұрын

@@12time12selling car ，not test

@lunlunqq 19 күн бұрын

@@12time12 No. it’s already available to the general market.

@raymondho3574 22 күн бұрын

Great point about trade deficit mirroring irresponsible fiscal policy.

@kdnofyudbn5918 17 күн бұрын

Look all we have to do is flip the script of the Chinese. For 30 years the Chinese forced American companies to partner with a A . Chinese Company, B. Manufacture in China, C. Export some of the Production. So America should tell the Chinese fine you can compete in America but now you will partner up with a US company. You MUST manufacture in America and Export the your products from the US factory aboard. Ta Da !!

@catbertevil750 23 күн бұрын

deep down domestically the US simply can't sustain the budget deficit and its debt. So inevitably either the US has to cut the budget, which is impossible with the established, entrenched powers, or has to raise taxes, which is political suicide to either party in power! using tariff as a way to increase government income AND implicitly raise taxes on EVERYONE is becoming favorable... lol it's actually quite simple. unfortunately universal consumption tax thus the inflation affects the middle class the most. so it's not surprising the american middle class is dwindling. the US IS in the toilet spiral and no prospect of getting out, period.

@TacticalMayo 23 күн бұрын

Nonsense

@migovasquez0303 23 күн бұрын

Why do you write this statement like in grade school. Where are the capital letters after each periods. Your analysis is nothing but a fallacy.

@user-hq1fq6gl1r 22 күн бұрын

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@tianliu6426 17 күн бұрын

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@Cotswolds1913 23 күн бұрын

We were already in a trade war, we simply stopped taking it on the chin and finally responded.

@cheongseeksam3502 22 күн бұрын

Anything that you can't compete with those you branded as lesser, you make malicious accusation...

@Cotswolds1913 22 күн бұрын

@@cheongseeksam3502 If you gave us the ability in the 19th century to seize the intellectual property of every company who ever invested in the US, promising to stop the practice but never doing so, requiring foreign firms to set up joint ventures where the American partner firm owns a majority, & the world never forcibly responded to stop the nonsense?? If we decided to restrict household consumption to just 37% of our economy through forced land acquisition, enormous industrial subsidies, holding the currency artificially weak to restrict importing power, a Hukou system against migrant laborers so they cannot access benefits from either their employer or the state, then no one would be able to compete with us across a score of manufacturing sectors either. We would however be a lot poorer, just as China is a lot poorer than the more market-driven Taiwan (albeit Taiwan has used subsidies too). Unfortunately for you the CCP does not care about workers living standards, they care about national power.

@Cotswolds1913 22 күн бұрын

@@cheongseeksam3502 if we held household consumption to 38% of GDP through forced land acquisition, huge industrial subsidies, held down the currency to restrict importing power, imposed capital controls, and imposed a hukou system so that migrant laborers couldn’t access benefits from either their employer or the state, then what do you think the result would be? If in addition we robbed other countries of their IP, made foreign firms set up joint ventures with an American partner who would own the majority, and promised the world we’d stop the practice but never actually do, then no one would compete with us across a swath of industrial sectors either. But we would be much poorer as a result, just as you are much poorer than capitalist Taiwan.

@12time12 22 күн бұрын

@@Cotswolds1913bravo, well said.

@mathewmiletich5986 22 күн бұрын

@@Cotswolds1913 well said

@angelosupsup3726 23 күн бұрын

I support usa in this initiative for tariffs. China is to wise and want to dominate the market under his body language.

@roddiechan 22 күн бұрын

pretty fair commentary

@stephenyang2844 17 күн бұрын

Trade deficit is not necessarily bad, it only means one country is better at producing products than the other country. High tariffs only burdens US consumers more and worsen income inequality and increase inflation.

@scottbrinkerhoff4561 23 күн бұрын

We are trying to protect US Patent Law, Labor Law, and fair trade vs free trade. Its simple

@passby8070 23 күн бұрын

Absolute bs, its all about maintaining hegemony. Look at what US did to Japan in the 90s.

@scottbrinkerhoff4561 23 күн бұрын

@@passby8070 - maintain a standard of living with a China model…explain how it’s possible

@ssuwandi3240 23 күн бұрын

Love the hint that rhe Professor is panicking olus as a Boomer who brought up the fiscal issue I have to throw more respect than his peers who keep playing dumb or ignorant. China has taken over FDI across all 10 countries in ASEAN and that's exactly the long shot growth without overly relying on domestic spending or stock market. They are gradually flipping the over reliance on dollar and start super charging the Yuan volume. Extremely clever policies.

@andrewlim7751 23 күн бұрын

Which Chinese product violate u.s. patent? Solar panels? Sodium Batteries? Wind turbines? T-shirts? Jeans? Kitchen knife? TV? Laptop? Handphones? 😁😁

@greedyinvader9462 23 күн бұрын

Since when muricans has a fair trade? When u.s has the advantage then talk about free trade when losing the advantage talk about national security

@stephenphillips6245 23 күн бұрын

Trade deficits are good, esp when the labour and manufacturing costs are low. But China uses coal infused gasoline that is 83 percent more carbon loading and spend 50 percent more, coal burnt, energy to make the goods....bad for the environment and air quality...900 million to 1.2 million Chinese die a year from pollution alone...alas Al Gore's environmental provisions were not followed by Rubin and Summers when trading w China really opened up (would have saved a million Chinese a year and save the airsphere).

@NathanGao 23 күн бұрын

So manufacture in Bangladesh or the Philippines is more environmental friendly?

@jinsamsara3259 23 күн бұрын

China producing goods for the rest of the world so that you can live in cleaner air and now blaming China for pollution? Which country can produce goods for over 200 countries and still having a carbon footprint of 1/3 of per capita of the US? Each person in the US is emitted 3 times more greenhouse related gases compare to a Chinese in China tell you what you need to know about the BS you just talked about.

@stephenphillips6245 23 күн бұрын

@@NathanGao American /North American manufacturing is the comparison...Obama era pollution controls have done a lotta good ...Nixon's Clean air and water acts deserve a shout-out too

@hink0027 23 күн бұрын

@@stephenphillips6245 you are wishing world factory will have less polution compare to lazy ass american who know only to stealing and siting lazy in their home without working?

@JimmyDoyel-by2cp 23 күн бұрын

And China is 50% green energy on all aspect of their life, and is planning to decrease co2 level every year starting next year, so they are doing something.

@epsilonlam 22 күн бұрын

Why is it that we allow politicians to decide matters pertaining to finance and the economy when they hardly hv a clue what it's all about?

@moneypromusic4419 16 күн бұрын

Imagine trying to stop a country growing economy with almost two billion people in it, what a joke

@PeterSedesse 23 күн бұрын

It is Geopolitical. It isn't a trade war, it is an actual war. China depends completely on the west as consumers. Without NATO, they have nobody to sell to. On the other hand, the USA and Europe can use other low-wage countries like India, Vietnam and the Philippines who do not pose such a huge geopolitical risk as China. That is all this is, a slow decoupling aimed at reducing China's power geopoliticaly. The professor gets one thing wrong, he does not include the geopolitical cost when saying China is cheaper. In pure economic terms, China might be slightly cheaper than India, but giving China all that money and stabilizing their economy has other costs.

@theinfralink6598 23 күн бұрын

But Vietnam and India all need huge inputs from China to export. They were like China 40 years ago. In case you don’t know China has become their No 1 trading partners. Philippines is a separate game altogether. It barely produces anything

@duinay3 23 күн бұрын

Not sure why you think China depends on the west to sell their goods - there are like 182 other countries besides the "west" that trade with China - the Chinese EV company BYD is the #1 electric vehicle exporter in the world surpassing Toyota and they haven't sold one EV in the US 😂

@ubuntoro1040 23 күн бұрын

It's not a geopolitical problem, the reason is that America was born with the DNA of colonialists, seizing territory and killing Indian tribes. Now they want to colonize other countries economically, technologically and militarily in the name of democracy and human rights... 🤣🤣🤣

@migovasquez0303 23 күн бұрын

@@theinfralink6598 Wrong , Philippine produces semi conductors which are exported to USA and China and lots of fruits that barren china cant produce. Try again.

@rap3208 23 күн бұрын

@@migovasquez0303 Those are produced by western componies, they are located in the Philippines. No home-grown industries whatsoever. It is overwhelmingly an en import oreinted economy.

@charlesyeeh 18 күн бұрын

Let’s see: After 6 years of our trade war against China, has the US overall trade deficit (with the entire world) been reduced? Have we broug6ht lots of manufacturing jobs back home? If not, then I believe our goal is to weaken China, and not about making America better or stronger. Let’s see whether China’s overall trade surplus has been reduced after 6 years. If not, then our goal is basically failing.

@wassdepp1 19 күн бұрын

Finally someone well education and intelligent speaking the truth

@oka2046 22 күн бұрын

Wisdom from a seasoned economist and MS ex-chairman.

@user-ki2bq6kd7s 22 күн бұрын

The number of pure electric passenger cars exported from China to the United States is 12400, and the proportion of both the quantity and total amount exported to the United States is less than 1%. Raising tariffs is just for the sake of votes

@user-du4fo8zi2w 18 күн бұрын

Nice, congratulations and thank you for your advice! Your Telegram Channel is amazing!

@Mike-us1wr 18 күн бұрын

Trades are never pure fair and balanced. In the end, it’s national interests for trade in either deficit or surplus.

@user-dn8sl2td4g 18 күн бұрын

The gap between rich and poor in the United States has reached its worst level since the Great Depression of 1929. According to data released by the Statista on November 3, 2023, the poverty rate in the United States in 2022 is as high as 11.5 percent. 73 The bottom 80 percent of U.S. households had exhausted their excess savings by June 2023, but cash savings among the richest 20 percent were still about 8 percent higher than at the start of the pandemic, according to the latest Federal Reserve study of household finances.74 In the third quarter of 2023, 66.6 percent of total wealth in the United States was owned by the top 10 percent of income earners. In contrast, the bottom 50 percent of earners own only 2.6 percent of total wealth.75 American economist Matthew Desmond has pointed out that in 2023, most Americans are working hard, but the rich are getting richer, and those struggling at the bottom of society are trapped in deep-rooted poverty. The accumulation of opportunity and reduced social mobility in American society is rooted in a triple institutional design: exploiting the poor, subsidizing the rich, and segregating the classes. The Report on Human Rights Violations in the United States in 2023

@davidlai399 23 күн бұрын

Hong Kong will have to reinvent itself, due to natural limits such as the lack of land and small population, especially in the context of the Greater Bay Area, as the Monaco of China. Hong Kong, due to its legacy high land price policy inherited from the Brits, has the most expensive property market in the world and it translates to extreme high cost of living and doing business. In this regard, the city has to focus its development around the goal of justifying that high cost of living. Unfortunately it will become somewhat of a domicile playground of the rich, and amenities and service industries will have to be built around them, which is not dissimilar to modern day London.

@308_Negra_Arroyo_Lane 19 күн бұрын

Hong Kong can only do the things that Shanghai and Shenzhen can't, and that's not a lot of things anymore.

@douginorlando6260 22 күн бұрын

China is setting up HK to be the international financial center alternative safe from being weaponized for political purposes. This includes the alternative to Swift and commodity exchanges

@spljapan 18 күн бұрын

HK is "over", but Roach keeps coming back, Bloomberg still in HK and the reporters are still sitting in Hong Kong LOL

@tasreasfatemsa8266 20 күн бұрын

US politicians are fine as long as it is not labeled made in China,made in any other countries by China companies are totally fine.

@harriemeeuwis978 22 күн бұрын

Good analysis. I wonder what mr. Roach views are about the ongoing division of the world into the west part, the G7 and allies, and the global south, Brics and allies. How far will this go?

@elcmu2637 22 күн бұрын

it seems like there is an overcapacity of the fed printing press to satisfy the budget deficit leading to massive trade deficits and damaged credibility of the usd.

@julianchung9215 18 күн бұрын

The big question is who will evetually pay for the additional tariffs bu US?

@cb250nighthawk3 18 күн бұрын

A forever trade war assumes that US and China remain the biggest economies. There won't be a forever trade war when India moves into the picture. And Brazil, Tanzania, Indonesia, Russia.

@bob___ 22 күн бұрын

The US trade policy of re-shoring/near-shoring is coherent, but it's not favorable to continued globalization which means it's contrary to the interests of globalized/globalizing businesses. Regarding tariffs, most people don't realize that the US Constitution limits the government tax power to tariffs, taxes on alcohol, cigarettes, etc., and (by amendment) income taxes. So tariffs are one of the few available sources of revenue (one reason for US government deficits).

@TacticalMayo 23 күн бұрын

It's going to be more than just trade.

@Kukura001 22 күн бұрын

Uncle Sam has isolated himself from the whole world and turned into a larger North Korea

@TacticalMayo 22 күн бұрын

@@Kukura001 the United States controls the aspect of every financial institute on the planet Earth. You cannot isolate the United States because the United States can isolate the world.

@jazening3075 22 күн бұрын

Thank you Professor Stephen Roach for sharing, informative information & perspective insights the issues between the U$A and China. Bless you, Sir.👍🙏🇨🇳🐲🐼☯️☮️🌏🙂‼️

@Keenoom 22 күн бұрын

They're happy because they were led to believe that the other country is the one paying the tariff.

@user-bp7wg4qs6e 19 күн бұрын

Cheap consumer goods require cheap labor. High US consumption requires low exporter nation consumption. Tariffs equalize this imbalance. But requiring each nation to consume its own production is a knife in the heart of globalism, the financial class, who Roach represents.