Sounds like it’s time for NATO countries to get involved and stop Venezuela. Just because the US aren’t present on the islands anymore doesn’t mean they couldn’t get there quickly.

It'd be a Falklands 2.0 (at least for the US islands). South American dictatorship needing a public opinion boost wanting to annex foreign territory, which belongs to a country not known for backing down / bending over. I guess, at least for the islands, they didn't completely ignore history lessons

@@ASlickNamedPimpback great analysis, cheers from Argentina!

@@GeomancerHT Hi from Canada. Good luck with your new president

@@ASlickNamedPimpbackthey fookin need it

Haha, I understand that reference!

The US navy hardly fared better against Filipino freighters

Or some muscovian cruiser which got sunk by a country without a navy.

The RMS Olympic sank a U Boat in WW1 by running it over when it surfaced, having a fast reinforced hull big ship is better than not having a ship at all

​@@Peizxcv They were not trying to fight them though, unlike Venezuela with that cruise liner.

It's been done before ...

the subs are not operative, most likely sunk on port, even in the early 2000s they werent really good, only one was active and was beeing used as a propaganda tool, dont think they have any chance to work nowdays

Venezuela cannot even maintain their oil infrastructure let alone high tech military equipment

It's a good boat and I have been on one in a museum in Germany but I wouldn't like to use it in action. I had a 20 year old car once and I can't imagine diving in something much older under combat conditions, something is going to break

Out of curiousity, would it be possible to use those subs as torpedo boats? Since neither side is powerful or super techy, having boats that can transport troops and are hard to spot, since I don't imagine theres alot of modern radars, could be useful.

What’s the story on using littoral or blue water subs in rivers? Not something I have read about but are there fundamental issues such as salinity, accurate charts, currents and temperature gradients?

This is really basic info. They need to up their game with alot more info

Since Venezuela’s military is far more powerful than Gan’s, they’ll be able to assert control, using mainly helicopters I would say, and I also think they’ll start building roads, Helliports and runways to establish control.

​@williamzk9083 Do you really believe America will let that fool attack a peaceful country for their newly discovered oil? Especially when they're the ones already pumping the oil. 😅 Keep an eye out for that massive hole in the ground where Venezuela used to be.

They don't intend to occupy the land. They intend to steal offshore oil rigs. Guyana is an old British colony and as a Brit I feel a sense of duty to protect our old colonies. I think it's the least we could do following the centuries of exploitation of their land and people. I am ashamed that the British government hasn't been more vocal in their condemnation of Venezuela's illegal claims. It seems our government is more concered with internal party politics than world security. Guyana is likely to be a key strategic ally and will help end our reliance on Middle Eastern Oil. Freeing us from the influence of Islam and allowing the UK to fully back Israel in their war on terror. As ever the bigger picture is lost on self centered politicians who care only about lining their own pockets and maintaining their grip on power instead of the long term strategic future of the country. Too many missed opportunities!

It's a dumb idea. That's exactly why Maduro is likely to do it.

@@williamzk9083 Because neither the UK or the US would react to that... Just shipping a few hundred anti-aircraft missiles would put a stop to that extremely quickly.

The difference is that HI Stutton is a real defence analyst and journalist, i.e. a professional with a long and reputable background, qualified and knowledgeable, On the other hand Perun is just a dude making youtube videos from home. Not wanna disrespect Perun, but he is not a professional. When it comes to areas where I am very well read and put a lot of effort in research, I can tell how superficial or even faulty/questionable his "analysis" can be. So don't swallow whatever he tells you and rather do your own research, because there is some difference between you doing it or him doing it and talking about it in his videos, then you know at least what you know and what you don't know and thereby are able to better assess the situation, instead of relying on some dude on youtube for your information.

​@@Kenny-yl9pc I cannot personally confirm this information, but it is rumored that Perun is an employee of the Australian MOD who focuses on defense economics and materials acquisitions, and has used this experience and his platform to inform the general public with an insight that is not readily available from traditional media sources. I have a limited military-government agency background, and have noted his vocabulary, cadence and other subtle references strongly suggest that he has worked/continues to work for either a government department or a private sector entity with government contracts. The focus and detail of his presentations has also garnered the intermittent participation of a number of relatively high-profile figures (Gen. Ben Hodges among them), which I think would be far less likely for "a dude making KZfaq videos from home". I mean, anything's possible in a world where an insurance salesman can review publicly available materials and create a fictional account of a rogue SSBN with enough technically accurate detail that the FBI would like to see a complete list of references... I merely meant to comment that Perun gave a very good recent summary of the various economic and political pressures that may compel Maduro to pursue some form of military operation against his neighbor with what appears to be limited maritime resources that are a far cry from the armada label in the video title. I was not attempting to make any comparison between HI Sutton and Perun in terms of knowledge base, experience or the quality of their analysis. While doing your own research is always sound advice, there are some topics and areas that may present a challenge to the public to even know where to begin, and HI Sutton and Perun both provide a framework for a more informed discourse about timely events.

I see you too are a man of culture

​@@Kenny-yl9pc Perun doesn't claim to be a defense analyst. He's a numbers guy. Whether defense, business or anything else, a lot can be determined by analyzing the numbers.

​@@Kenny-yl9pc I agree with you that people shouldn't just believe the guy on the internet in general and definitely we should all do our own research before coming to conclusions.

Naval invasion also needs to gamble on nobody else taking an interest and there's a lot of parties that might.

Venezuelan oil is not devalued by the presence of Guyana’s oil. Oil is an international market with global competition, nevermind significant competition from other countries close by in South America like Brazil. This is a pure attempt to steal Guyana’s oil, in an attempt to flex Venezuela’s muscles, to create a common goal that Maduro can attempt to rally his starving nation around, and pose Venezuela as a strong nation in an attempt to hide the beleaguered reality

No they DO want the oil and in particular the functioning production facilities, infrastructure and skilled labor. Venezuela sits atop massive oil reserves themselves but these are woefully managed and they lack the means to meaningfully raise their current production capacity. PDVSA is just run by cronies that fleece it for all its worth. Maintentance, training staff etc is all neglected, millions Venzuelans with skills and the means will have already fled the country and the education systems have collapsed. On top of that no foreign oil company is stupid enough to get involved when their investments can (and will) be nationalized on the drop of a hat.

The chances that Venezuela undertakes any military operations are pretty small. Public opinion across most of Latin American is against the idea and it's easy to imagine a very powerful coalition coming together to stop it. So this is likely just a domestic political ploy by Maduro to shift the focus to foreign affairs and foreign threats to distract from all the bad things going on in Venezuela itself.

That’s a lie. If you knew the history of the region then you would know Venezuela has claimed the Essequibo region since 1777. A year after the U.S. Declaration of Independence.

US has conducted a joint exercise with G, but don't have a timeline on it. Some type of air exercise.

That all depends on its instructions from Uncle Sam. 🇺🇲

@@vespelian That's a myth the UK doesn't really do that. If they do intervene and the excuse would be it's a commonwealth country it will be to create a bit of goodwill for its ailing Prime Minister and his lacklustre government who are about to lose in the general election sometime in 2024

@@PepRex That's one way of looking at it because the British armed forces have been nothing but the obedient poodles of Uncle Sam for at least the last four decades. Nothing more than a politicly useful - and now barely even that - auxiliary asset.

Yes minister

We don't have any ships left there except some coast Guard. For a first in years.

But useless for naval AA defence.

Venezuela has the Chinese anti ship missiles as well as new Iranian anti ship missiles...@@ohlordy2042

hard to get or expensive ?

@@garygranato9164 unless they manage 2 aquire e liscense 2 produce them, they can only get them from OEM.

@@garygranato9164 35mm ammo is only made in germany, schweizland, south africa, turkey and norway maybe japan as well but not sure on them, none of those want to sell to venezuela

@@ReZel80657 i bet china would produce them if needed.

@@garygranato9164 Forgot about china which does make 35mm ammo as well but not the AHEAD ammo needed for the CIWS role thats only the swiss that make those

And the AHEAD ammo for the CIWS role comes from the swiss

1 x River Class, but not operational

@@HISuttonCovertShores Thanks.

Has any other navy effectively lost a conflict with a cruise ship.

I don't think so. But Carnival Cruise lines is looking into private military contracting now.

Possibly, however, China is highly unlikely to get involved imho. They already have enough financial issues, and Taiwan is a vital strategic resource to Nato, unlike Ukraine. And since over half of its food and fuel reserves are imported, via sea lanes controlled by unfriendly powers, and Russia, and it was already proven that the supply of both from Russia can be cut at any time by a recent strike which has practically severed the entirety of the rail capacity between the two for at least a month..... Doubt China is going to rock the boat too much, they are more business oriented unlike the others you mentioned.

This is purely a matter of domestic politics, specifically the 2024 presidential election. As dictatorial as Maduro is (María Corina Machado, the leading opposition candidate, has been disqualified by Maduro's government on blatantly false charges), his popularity is low enough (8% to Machado's 73%) that if the election were tomorrow he would have to shed any remaining veneer of legitimacy to remain in power. So what does he do? Hold a sham referendum on annexing Guayana Esequiba to stoke nationalist support.

For me, its a mix of coordination and taking advantage of the chaos of the Western liberal order.

@@quinnjohnson9750 I think it's really just about Maduro thinking that a "quick victorious war" will let him stay in power. Gosh, how many times has that actually worked?

Maduro has made a huge mess of Venezuela, as is standard practice with "socialism". 😮

Ok

The problem is it wouldn't be "the people" who take over. It would be the cartels

not our problem

I think the US would support a response but it needs to be a South American response. Brazil, Argentina lead.

😂

Not to mention that the Venezuelan action was ACTUAL PIRACY, as they tried to seize that Portuguese cruise ship outside their territorial waters, near to Curaçao

It wasn't even an actual destroyer but a small lightly armoured patrol corvette from the coast guard, not the official main sea line navy. Not defending their incompetence and moronical behavior but accidents like those have happened to even the mightiest most advanced navies.

I was thinking something like Sea Babies myself, but I imagine Guyana would need ATGMs and MANPADS to counteract the landing boats instead

They let US do whatever it please in the middle east and now that the US has a bloody nose every one one wants to seize the moment before they can get bsck up

Probably. There isn’t much courage in the political leadership in the West.

@@danielbond9755 they are more concerned about profits than stability tbh

Just like happens to America WHEN THEY CONSTANTLY INVADE?

They won't. ...but if Venezuela has the cojones to pull this off there will be a response from the international community, which probably will come in the form of a military intervention if diplomacy fails. India might also have great interest in protecting Guyana since ~40% of Guyana's population is indeed Indian.

I doubt the US will lift a finger under comrade Biden just look at Israel and Ukraine the US has been talking and no action!!!

The USA would not even need to get involved. France, Netherlands, and the UK all have capable navies and could just form a joint task force of frigates, destroyers, subs, and at least one carrier, that sails down there and bullies the Venezuelan navy into staying in port. The US navy would not have to spend a single minute away from its highest priority country to protect (Israel), but of course the US already wants to take Venezuela down a peg, and Exxon might "rent" the US navy as muscle, just like they rent US politicians. 😅 The point is, if Venezuela's navy did attack, the response would be less like a war and more like "assisted suicide".

What if Brazil saw it as an opportunity to take control of Guyana's deep water port and, so ensure supply to northern Brazil? They could go in to 'help' Guyana 'defend' against Venezuela and end up taking over...

read any news lately?

Yes they are, and it sure does!😂

And ESA launch Facilities are guarded by the French Foreign Legion! Maduro might not want to screw with the Foreign Legion!!!😂😂😂😂

You people should learn to read a map. Suriname is on the other side of Guyana, not French Guiana. There is no threat to France's South American territory.

@@Venezolano410 still close enough to be the fast reaction force, should Maduro get froggy and try invading anyway.

@@donnthesovereigncitizen1577 The French have no reason to intervene in the affairs of Guyana, a former *British* colony. Venezuela is no threat to French Guiana since it doesn't border Venezuela. French Guiana borders Brazil and Suriname. You people are beyond stupid.

I remember Russia was weak and China was too poor in 1990. I remember both are now powerful and know and undrestand AMERICA'S EVIL. Thats why I just remembered that Venezuela owns the S-300VM Missile system fomr Russia. It will shoot down any advanced fighter jet or missile. Venezuela also has powerful Chinese anti-ship missiles! Go abck to your dumn Hollywood movies where the US wins a war! ONLY IN HOLLYWOOD AND NOT THE REAL WORLD!

Bingo

I believe the reason is the same as is happening all over the world. Russia is instigating these countries as a distraction to keep full attention and military help from Ukraine.

Election year coming up

You mean one can't simply remove 7 decimal points from the currency and stop inflation?

Socialism certainly seems to be working for Guyana though, given the two main parties are the People's Progressive Party and the People's National Congress party.

sorry no idea what you mean

lol

Look up the demographics before you laugh

The fun bit is that given the terrain, it probably won't even be able to drive to Guyana...

Stop extracting oil until the dispute is settled?

@@Shadow__133 Venezuelans should fix their country instead of planning to steal oil from other countries.

They would have to call up either the United States or a European Power. Columbia still claims all of Venezuela actually. Columbia also claims all of Peru as well I think.

@@doolittlegeorge I did not know a US State was claiming Venezuela. That is awesome!

There are 3 dates on 2 pictures: October 2023 / Dec 19 2022 and Dec 13 2023 (2 days from now), strange.

No one in Guyana can operate them.😅

Thats right, Guyana man most of them will only party and drinking booze. Venezuela know Guyana aint Brazil so they can easily man handel them.

The rivers are only 2 meters deep in some places and are so shallow that a mine would stick out of the water

@@ReZel80657 naval mines yes. but anti-tank mines with tilt-rod or magnetic influence fuzes would do the trick in shallow waters against river boats just fine. And yes, many AT mines are designed to be waterproof so they can be planted in rivers, usually to prevent crossings rather than boats.

i would hope it’s not nothing, but i fear it would be nothing

Us and brazil are ready to back guyana