More info by Denys that strongly supports a missile strike: kzfaq.info/get/bejne/bq5ieaqmyZmbgoU.html

We know it wasn't an accident. I'm surprised anyone was willing to pilot an airplane with him on it, and anyone else was willing to be on board.

Putin promised Prigozhin that he won’t be prosecuted, and he kept his word.

Worth noting that ADSB data was lost at FL280, not when the aircraft impacted the ground. Circuits were severed while flying.

What a truly unlucky turn of events. Could have happened to anyone. Anyone flying over Russian airspace who also happened to carry a passenger that had acted against the Russian head of state, that is.

Accidentally flew through the path of a missile. Never guessed that was going to happen.

It was not a missile It was not a bomb It was not a crash It was a “special military landing”

When I first heard the news, my immediate reaction was “I want to hear Blancolirio’s analysis on it”. So as always, thank you!

The only reason this Legacy jet crashed is because Yevgeny Prigozhin couldn’t fit out its window. In all seriousness though, my heart goes out for its crew.

The puff of white and grey smoke is a signature of a missile proximity detonation. That jet was shot down by a sophisticated surface to air missile.

It was only a matter of time but I thought he would have fallen from a 6th storey window like so many others.

Juan, I love how as an American you kept a straight face when you said "and we're never going to get the straight story as this happened over in Russia" Greetings from Australia

That white "cloud" at 4:50 reminded me of the same kind of cloud when they shot down the Chinese balloon.

Well, like so many other Russian Big Wigs, Prigozhin died from a great fall…. Much higher than the usual apartment window

Thank you Juan. Your assessments are always clear clear and informative and easy for the layperson to understand.

@2:57 - "Ass over teakettle." Now THERE is a term I have not heard in a while. Mum used to say that all the time. Good memories.

"Truth is the first casualty of war..." great quote.

Someone showed some pictures of the tail section separated from the main impact and a section of wing consistent with SAM damage. I knew it was coming, just didn't know when. What he was doing still in Russia is baffling.

I saw a photo that seemed to show shrapnel holes in a partly intact piece of the aircraft.

Professional pilot here: Experience shows that it is very difficult to open a window of a jet aircraft inflight, even harder for a person to fall out of it. However, this problem can be solved when the window itself, with the airframe attached to it, falls out of the sky - with the unlucky person on board…

Just because his Prigozhin's name was on the passenger manifest doesn't necessarily mean he was actually on board. I can think of good reasons he'd like everyone to believe he was.

Wing missing, engine and tail gone. Missile.

Thanks, Juan for your experienced update on this incident.

Thank you very much for picking this up - and for the recommendation to Denys!

I was waiting to see what your assessment was on this. Thanks for the update!

Arse over teakettle is a favorite expression of my dad's.

Photographs of the wreckage *clearly* show the wreck displays perforations that can more or less only be from the shrapnel created by the detonation of a missile, they're very distinctive and pepper at least one side of the aircraft

I worked on the Legacy 600 model several years ago. They don't just fall out of the sky in that fashion. There is absolutely zero forward component in that video. While extremely blurry, it looks like most of the empennage is missing which would explain the freefall. That aircraft either took a missle in the aft section or some type of explosive went off in either the aft baggage or in the hell hole.

I was surprised a few weeks back to see footage of him disembarking a Robinson 44 helicopter. He sure was confident enough to fly anything!

In various screenshots you can see the right wing and most of the empennage is missing from the fuselage

Really enjoy your channel. Thank you for your hard work in providing excellent factual content.

RIP Prigozhin, you were an excellent adversary, very entertaining

Glad you bothered to report this incident, was hoping you would, always enjoy your clean, consis analysis of these events. As always, my hat's off to you Jaun. Keep up your excellent work !

And this is why I subscribed. You directly answered every question that I had. Thanks.

Glad to see your take on this. You explained a lot looking at this from a normal accident view. Interesting to is that they identified him so quickly. Or is that a normal amount of time.

Best information from Juan once again. Great job

We could coin a new phrase for this incident being a ‘crash of convenience’ for a certain leader

We all knew this was coming, surprised it took so long. Unless Prigozhin's not actually dead....

i usually get a catch in my throat watching your accident videos... but on this one i cant stop giggling!!!!

Thanks again, Juan. I'm an aviation writer and I appreciate your narrative approach to these incidents, refusing to engage in outrageous speculation before all the facts are in. We pilots are compulsive second guessers.

That's what happens when your weight and balance is radically altered by a missile/bomb.

The only thing we know for sure is that Girkin didn't pull the trigger this time. So is this the end of Wagner now? As Mr Churchill said of Russia "It is a riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma".

Hey Juan, would love a breakdown of the ferry flight Embraer with the Gol 737 in Brazil.

There’s another angle of the crash that shows the legacy in what appears to be missing it’s left wing and at least both horizontal stabilizers

You are right on top of these events, Thanks

Thanks for adding your experience to the list of people questioning this crash.

Juan, always love your coverage....Bravo....Paul in Florida

Dang, he didn't get pushed out of building, he got BLOWN UP!!

Thanks for covering this!

Thank you once again, Juan.

That looks exactly like the Blue Angels 5 jet I saw in Niagara Falls back in ‘85. Opposing solo hit it and knocked the vertical stab off. Man, when that happens it’s just flat spin all the way down.

I like the way you analyze things.

I’ve been a serious amateur photographer since 1971. How come I never seem to point my camera into the sky and catch an initial explosion on an aircraft carrying an infamous person? I am very sorry for the loss of the 3 crew members. Another war crime, I’m sure.

Yeah, I’d be good to have that that flight if you were talking about between the 737 in the Embro AFB do that one in the future if you can

Some photos of the wreckage show what looks like shrapnel dents and perforations on the fuselage which suggests a missile strike. Actually, that bigger cloud of smoke looks very much like a missile blast.

The fact that his name was on the manifest doesn't necessarily mean he was on the aircraft, just that someone wants us to think so. I think authorities were a little to forthright with this information for me to believe it without some skepticism. Wouldn't surprise me if he was killed in a basement somewhere and his body dissolved in acid and that his name was put on the manifest as a cover.

I did see a clip with a wing clearly absent--the left one, I believe. There apparently was another aircraft, in their envoy, also in the area--just landed from what I heard. An interesting one for sure. THANKS Juan!

The entire left wing and both horizontal/vertical stabilizers are gone with engines still attached. There is a second bystander video where, if paused just before the aircraft disappears below the treeline, the bystanders got a top-down view of the crippled aircraft and you can make out the right wing, fuselage and engines.

I saw another video with a wing missing on its way down. Looking at the trail of white smoke just after the incident in the air, looks like a missile attack.

I am still unconvinced that Prigozhin would be so stupid as to put both himself and his XO on the same aircraft... and then put both their names on the passenger manifest. I'll believe it when I see the bodies.

The way it was falling flat like it was, it seems the horizontal tail was gone, And most of the wing is gone. If the tail was intact, it would have probably been nose down like a missile. It was a fuselage in a flat position. That kept it's speed down somewhat as evidenced by intact pieces like an engine, cockpit windows.

As far as unsolved mysteries of Russians falling out of windows goes, I say Prigozhin wins the world record for highest altitude. 😂

Quite interesting there is video of the event.

That wasnt a plane crash. That was debris falling from a plane that blew up.

Just saw another camera shot of it falling (amazing how many people caught it from the ground - they must have heard an explosion which prompted them to look up). The plane is clearly missing a wing - appears to be the port side wing. Also apparently a wing was found two miles away from the wreckage.

They have found parts of the aircraft a few km from the crash site. From what I saw the paint matches the vertical stab and another part that looked like one of the elevators. It remains to be seen if Prigozjin was actually on the aircraft.

its missing a wing, plus the way it falls is indicative of a loss of wing the way it steeply dives down and then kinda flutters and then dives again.

Looks like the “Donuts on a Rope” contrail like from a fast, fast missile. That’s a thing, isn’t it? Some intel guys could chime in here.

Juan, at the point where you paused the video; it appears the aircraft is falling tail first at that point. “Tumbling” is about all you can say for how it came out of the sky.

something to remember is that when a breakup or explosion at great distance and/or altitude occurs there is a delay of on the order of a couple seconds or more between when something wrong first can be seen and when the initial sounds from the explosion are heard by a ground observer. There is a formula for determining the distance from the observer if the exact time of the delay is known. The same thing as trying to determine the distance from a lightening discharge to an observer who compares the time of the visible flash to the resultant "thunder" (lightening discharges might occur over a longer time than an "instant" and can have great length causing the initial sound to come from more than one point of direction towards the observer and have some duration) I would think an out of control falling metal aircraft would make a great deal of aerodynamic noise different than normal flight noise more or less all the way from the precipitating incident crippling it to the ground impact

I'd love to ear the Cee Eye Aye's alibi regarding their wherabouts during this crash.

That is one high window to fall from.

Shout out to the Brazilian Embraer Legacy 600 - Goto private jet choice for private military leaders!

Thanks Juan, well done!

Here,in Brazil 🇧🇷, at 1965/66, dictator Castello Branco,was shoot down by a Brazilian Air force T33(SHOOTING STAR) much similar like this Embraer BJ....

Wow! Someone actually caught this crash with a camera! Wild!

"Ass over tea kettle" one of my dad's favorite expression. First time I've heard it for decades -- thanks for the fond memories.

That dense cloud to the left looks a lot like the mushroom shape of an air-to-air detonation. No surprise. Just like MH 17.

Thanks Juan, as always a good factual report.

The later photos of the wreckage reveals the fuselage peppered with small impact holes indicative of a ground-to-air missile munition.

No way they would know this quick that there were 10 dead bodies. When a plane crashes like this, there are body parts everywhere. Plus they were burnt also, so it would take days to determine how many bodies there are. This plane was clearly brought down from how it was coming down. For the life of me I can't understand how the Wagner guy thought it would end-up any other way after he rebelled. He was a dead man walking the minute he made that decision.

I saw reports that the tail and engines (which are back by the tail) were found some miles away from where the fuselage and wings fell. Most likely an anti air missile that targeted the engines and blew the tail off (if not a bomb in the rear)

I agree that story about the one that clipped that 747 over the jungle was crazy

Thank you as always

The puffs of white smoke are very similar to those made by certain types of proximity fuse when they fire. Of course there may be other things which create similar smoke clouds.

There are videos of the missile trails.

I was hoping you'd do a video on this ever since I read the news today.

to translate the lady filming, aside from cursing, she does say it was shot down.

There were two Wagner jets in the air. RA-02748, a Legacy 650 was ahead this jet, RA-02795, a Legacy 600. Is it possible that Prigozhin was on the other Wagner jet?

The witness said it was missing a wing and after crash parts were still floating down.

Who’s surprised? Great video as always, thanks.

It had a wing blown off you can see the smoke from the missile in one of the videos. People on the ground reported 2 explosions

I think everyone in the world knew that was not an accident the moment word had gone out that the Wagner group leader was possibly on board and was in Russia

The Russian military were ready to film it from probably many angles before they shot out of the sky.

Several news sited (BBC, NBC etc) have still photographs of what appears to be whole the tail plane and upper fin (T tail) some distance from the crash site, damage included missing elevators, rudder etc. Colour scheme and construction looks like it is this aircraft. Looks like it lost the whole of the tail section from somewhere in the region of the engines. Suggestions include bomb in the rear baggage stowage area. Looking at what can be seen of the tail wreckage it doesn't appear to be as damaged as a close up missile strike in the engine area would have caused.

Thanks he was on the passenger log some say he was absent.

Dan Gryder will have it all sorted out for us on Sunday!

Thanks Mister Blanco

that cone shaped puff of smoke is the classic signature of a continuous rod warhead of an air to air short range missile. Based on previous data I have seen and the fact that Russian MANPADS systems used exclusively blast fragmentation warheads I am fairly confident this plane was purposefully shot down with more than likely with a Vympel R-60 (NATO AA-8 "Aphid") Air to air missile launched from a Russian Air Force fighter. With this being so close to Moscow its is nearly impossible with this to be a shot from a foreign missile especially given the impact trajectory in the video.

"The higher you go the further you have to fall", quite literally this time as it would seem