Taiwan is a country

I am a Taiwanese army reserve rifleman , since the day Russian invaded Ukraine, I have started training myself. Preparing myself makes me feel less anxious, and knowing that if something happened, I will be capable of serving my people and my country.

I live in Taiwan, if they activate a “foreign legion” I’d join. This is my home away from home and I would 100% fight for my home.

I grew up in Taiwan as a little kid for a few years. Navy brat and all. It was ruthless in the early 70s when I was a kid living there. I got to go back in the late 90s as an adult. It was a completely different world. Couldn't find where I had lived previously though. Absolutely beautiful country. Absolutely beautiful people.

An interesting note: although the media in English-speaking countries referred to Taiwan's defence strategy as the "porcupine," the actual Chinese term used is that for "hedgehog."

Japan won’t stand by idly while Taiwan falls. Their government has even said so, because the fall of Taiwan would mean the sea lanes into Japan could easily be strangled and Japan would essentially collapse.

It should be added that there is a global national security interest in helping Taiwan if war breaks out. The fact that Taiwan is the global hub of chip production is a key strategic value. The global economy couldn't function if Taiwan's TSMC was taken over or bombed in a war.

Porcupine strategy is what helped Finland to survive cold war as well.

Taiwan is a Country support from The Philippines 🇵🇭🤝🇹🇼

If I were a lazy high school teacher, I'd just play Simon's various channels on rotation. The kids probably would get a better education than from the text books they are assigned to.

99% of US DOD run wargames always have some unrealistic advantages to the opposing force. Reason for this is as one opfor roleplayer at JRTC once said "I hope to give the commanders their worst day here in make believe so they don't have their worst day down range in real life"

Edinburgh, the Scottish capital was captured any time England tried but Scotland was never conquered because mountains (small mountains).

Another Warographics. Another chance for me to sell you guys on why Warographics should cover the Geneva Conventions.

I was born in Taiwan, but grew up in the US. Taiwan is a country in my eyes. The US needs to do more to help defend Taiwan's democracy. The free world must stand together, and never yield to dictators and authoritarian regimes like China.

I got to visit Taiwan in 2018 and have been a strong supporter ever since. They are a freedom loving people who have fought to where they are now and will fight to keep their way of life. Taipei is very familiar, in a way - people drive the same cars, wear the same clothes, and - in large part - buy the same products we do. I felt like I was visiting San Antonio, Texas, except everyone was asian.

Very important to distinguish the bases in the Philippines as factually Filipino bases which the U.S. has recently regained significant access to. It's not the same as Japan and Korea where the U.S. has broader powers to use the bases as needed. We are visitors in the Philippines and any action from those bases would have far more political strings attached than in the case in Japan/ROK.

I’m glad that Taiwan has the support of the US and other countries. Taiwan is a free democracy which preserves traditional Chinese culture and religion, which was wiped out by Mao in China. In terms of per capita wealth and personal freedoms, Taiwan is leagues ahead of China. The vast majority of Taiwanese people don’t want to come under the control of China. Despite the fact that Taiwan has never been under the control of the Communist Party of China, the CCP has said for many decades that they will take Taiwan. Perhaps some day the CCP will try, but looking at the rampant corruption and lack of innovation in the Chinese military, I think it’s little more than a paper tiger. The free world must continue to support Taiwan.

Feel like this wasn't quite explained correctly. It isn't that the PRC isn't willing to accept those high casualties. It's that they can't sustain the losses in amphibious equipment. Even if you get a large number of troops ashore, if you lose too many of the amphibious ships needed to sustain and supply them. It would have done you no good. Those troops will be chewed up eventually as they run out of supplies.

Taiwan is a free and independent country

Thought some might be interested in why the classified US military war games had a more negative conclusion. As a rule, the US military uses war games to find where it needs to improve, so they tend to be intentionally stacked against the US/allied forces.

I would really like to see a warographics episode focusing on the Forest Brothers of post WWII Baltic countries and or an episode focusing on the national guard and grass roots style civil guard units that have sprung up in the Baltics and Poland since 2014. It is really neat seeing the volunteer formations that are willing to buy time for the military to react in the instance of an invasion.

I am Ukrainian and I fully sympathize with the people of Taiwan and sincerely wish them peace, but let me wish them only to be brave and unyielding in defending their freedom if necessary! Glory to Ukraine and Glory to Taiwan!

The Taiwanese are Not 100 percent Chinese but a fusion of Polyasians, Japanese,and Chinese people so they are unique and should be left alone.

I think it's important to keep in mind, that one of Chinas goals is to incorporate the taiwanese industry. So even the pessimistic scenario, with heavy urban fighting, could lead to less gains than Putin got at the moment from Ukraine.

@05:44 “Before it went down” LOL You timed that on purpose didn’t you? 😂

I always take reported war game results with a huge grain of salt. Anything they release publicly is designed to shape public opinion, not to reflect reality. If someone wants to make US voters nervous in order to increase the political will to raise military spending, this is a great way to do that, regardless of whether the report is accurate.

THANK YOU!!!!! This is exactly what I needed to know the differences between The Ukraine War and a Taiwan invasion.

You should do one on the swedish cold war defense against the soviet union. How the idea to shelter 4-5 million people for 4 years underground whilst the world recovred from nuclear annhiliation as well as having the industry tucked away in mountains to be ready to churn out everything everyone needed including old trains and well everything. Not the defense itself which at its peak incorporated half the population and an aritllery piece for each kms of the gigantic border towards the sea. And thats just scratching the surface.

A nation that has a similar aproch to Defence is Greece Or as a Greek politican said during the 1987 crisis ( in loose translation) " we holding the keys for the mad asylum gate ( if you try us) will pass that gate together, dragging you in with us" in other words even if you manage to defeat us,it will be such a pyrrhic victory and the aftermath so chaotic that you really gonna wonder if it worth it in the fist place

With the way the world is shaking up, I truly hope that this strategy continues to work as a deterrent for the Taiwanese.

_"To enforce, one must have force"_ - Robert Edwin House I applaud Taiwan I hope they can continue and I hope that all they're planning will be enough to dissuade any hostile action from the Chinese mainland Let's also look forward to Taiwan becoming an official country in the eyes of the international world sometime this century

Some very good points made here and the team put together a good survey of the wargame results. Some have pointed out omissions like TSMC, but it is a highly complex subject and not all issues can be overviewed in 20 minutes or so. I appreciate the logical approach.

you should make a video on singapore's total defence concept

Amazing content. Thank you. Simon was also incredibly eloquent and engaging.

Two things I keep in mind: 1.) We've seen how the Russian military has been hollowed out by corruption. That's surely happened in China as well and the leadership should know it. 2.) Churchill as Lord of the Admiralty in WWI was very frustrated that offensive action on the seas would be called off due to the loss of one ship with some hundreds of crew, while on the Western Front hundreds of soldiers were lost every day from attrition. The horror of losing large numbers of men to drowning would give anybody pause.

Fantastic analysis and information as usual. I love the work done for this channel. Hats off to the research and creative team!

Well said. Even under the best scenarios for China you likely have a totally destroyed Taiwan. Does the PRC really think the ROC will allow them to take the chip-centers intact? How many decades will it take to rebuild within a region much harder to subjugate than Tibet or Xinjiang.

Thankyou as always for your informative videos and amazing voice :)

There is an aspect that has not once been mentioned in this video: the state of the Chinese army. One of the many lessons learned from the Ukraine war was how horribly even the most capable military experts and intelligence services can over- or underestimate an army's capabilities, efficiency and power. Everyone and their mothers took it more or less as a fact that the Russian army is still a mighty one that is operated competently. How wrong everybod was... Turned out most of the analyses simply assumed that such a huge army with such a history must, by virute, be a formidable one. Now many analysts have been saying the Chinese army is nowhere near as poweful as the sheer numbers would suggest. But mostly, people still tend to think the Chinese army simply MUST be good and strong because... well, it's the Chinese army. In reality, there are a lot of signs this not being exactly true. Sure, it is, after all, indeed the Chinese army with immense manpower and weaponry, so should they decide to attack, there is no way they wouldn't cause a lot of devastation, no matter what the final outcome is. Just like the Russian army could, can and will be able to cause an awful lot of damage in Ukraine, regardless of the final outcome. But one thing's for sure: we haven't seen the Chinese army in real action for an eternity (thankfully). In spite of an ocean of military, political and aother kinds of intelligence and analysis, we basically have no idea how capable the Chinese army is - just like we had no clue about how capable the Russian army was. We assumed - we were dead wrong. And one interesting aspect: many argue that the biggest factor in the decline of the Russian army probably has been rampant corruption. Well, corruption is just as rampant in China. We don't know how much the army is affected... but corruption has long been a HUGE problem in China.

Love your videos! Do agincourt next!🎉🎉🎉🎉🎉

Simon...I have to say. As your videos continue to get more detailed, you have grown with your many channels and amazing content. I continue to notice delivery, timing and sense of humor regarding such serious topics as amazing. Keep up the amazing work my good sir.

Great video, thanks!

Great episode!

It would be interesting to see if Taiwan adopts some ideas from Ukraine like the cheap ballistic missiles. (While they could/ would be stopped easily 1,000's of them could be used to exhaust air defences on ships) I think Ukraine call them the Toskoa.(not sure if they have been used yet)

I do love Simon forecasting a topic and it comes true.

After every war game said that Ukraine would only survive for a few days, I'll take any prediction of Taiwan losing in 10 weeks if they were alone with a grain of salt. Same with the other heavy loses predictions.

Taiwan is definitely a country and I’m glad it has the support of the U.S., Japan, the Philippines and South Korea!

I'd love to see an episode on the World War 2 battle of the Hurtgen Forrest. It was the longest single battle the U.S army ever fought(almost 5 months) and one of the bloodiest battles on the western front. Most people have never heard of this battle

To add another layer to the unpredictability of an invasion, typhoon season is May through October. Even in the best-for-China scenario, it would still take months to overtake the island. Random cyclones could seriously complicate amphibious landings in the meantime. PRC military planners should have a large "no go" swathe in their calendars.

Another aspect of Taiwan's strategy is as a poison pill combined with a sort of Samson option. Taiwan has begun producing coventional cruise missiles capable of reaching beijing while also having modified an old but respectably large ww2 era submarine to be a mine layer. Basically, in the event of a Chinese invasion, all those missiles would probably be fired en masse at appropriate targets while the sub could lay mines outside chinese ports. China's economy would be devastated in such a situation, with damage done to its cities while simultanously making maritime shipping hazardous to the point that China would lose even more trade in addition to the trade lost from the international fallout.

Department of defense plays war games a little differently where they try and make sure they are outgunned outnumbered and I'll played strategy that a lot of Nations do dating back even before the Napoleon wars. The strategy where you can find ways to win o even if you are outgunned and outclassed it's a good strategy keeps everybody humble

Your knowledge and ability to communicate is fantastic! Thank you for making these videos.

1) I remember the vast majority of simulations and predictions talked of "Ukraine being overran in weeks". 2) Americans have more than 5000 nukes, China has 300. The number of nukes that are deployed and those that won't malfunction due to neglect are lower but still, the gap is large, I doubt China would risk nuclear war as long as their arsenal is not close in size to that of the US.

Would love to see more details on how Taiwan is preparing to defend

At first this reminded me of the video Simon did 5 months ago about the US invading Iran: While they certainly could the price in blood would be too high to ever try. But then as he continued I realized no, this could potentially be so, so much worse.

Had a bud who did those kind of analysis back in the day what would be the outcome, he said one word "bloodbath". Ask him recently what he thought with modern weaponry, he said "bloodbath now with GPS, Drones and in 4k"

Simon, how much existential dread do you experience from the topics across your channels? For me it's quite a bit and yet I keep coming back 🫠

Whootwhoot Taiwan No.1 #Taiwan #taiwanisacountry #freedompineapple

While most definitely both an, 'easier said then done', and imperfect option, the porcupine strategy has been proven effective since prehistory, hence it's animal based name

1:35 - Chapter 1 - Theory & praxis 5:50 - Chapter 2 - Stockpiles & capabilities 10:10 - Chapter 3 - Global support, global lessons 14:55 - Chapter 4 - War games - Chapter 5 - - Chapter 6 - PS: I do wonder, knowing Russia "track record" against Ukraine...could it be possible China will struggle as well when it will eventually try to conquer Taiwan ?

I spent the majority of '90 in Taipei and was taken by the stats stated on the mandatory service periods, as well as the gender differantial. I was told it was 2 years for men and 1 year for women. They take it very seriously and did mauvers through the streets at night moving tanks from base to base. If it comes down to it they will fight like a third monkey on the ramp to Noah's Ark, of that I am certain.

Please do a video on the battle of Westerplatte - one of the first battles of WW2 between Germany and Poland

You are awesome

Simon is so cold from office air conditioning, or basement cool air subsidence, he wears a cable knit sweater in the height of Summer. Lmao Can someone store meat in there?

Excellent slip at 5:44, very professional 😂

Whoa. Just watched the previous video about Switzerland and their version of this. Where you left off saying how Taiwan is using their version. You offered a video about it if we were interested. I was literally thinking “man I hope he does that”. Here it is.

Whoah. There is always the chaotic element that projections can't account for... but it seems a fair assessment.

As long as Taiwan is not invaded, the orocuoine strategy is doing its work

Just curious what kind of soldier can 4 months of military produce? I still remember in the 80s when we had joint exercises with them all their conscripts had over 2 years of military training.

The big restriction is the lack of Chinese troop lift and transport capabilities. Either paratroop or Marine lift capability is way short of that required.

Another blue sweater episode! The most knowledgeable outer ware in history.

Very good analysis but I think you forgotten evaluating one very big important factor I’m sure the Taiwanese are definitely going to bring into their defense. The mountains.

The US can not abandon Taiwan.

I went to high school with a Taiwanese kid named Eddy.... you don't wanna go to war with Taiwan if even 1 out of every 100 of the folks there are like Eddy. You could tell the Overall Defense Concept had been drilled into his very being because sadly, Eddy was the target of bullying. However, he very much took the "mess with me and it's gonna suck for you too" approach to defending himself. Needless to say the bullying attempts didn't last very long

Very interesting video as mot of yours. Did anybody told you yet, that your videos are only suitable at 0.75x speed? You talk waaaay to fast. It would be great to your spectators considering this fact for the future.

Off the bet, I would say that the continued success of Taiwan's strategy will depend on who the invader is. There are certainly leaders who are willing to shed the lives of millions to achieve their goals. If Taiwan ever has to face such a foreign ruler, it could be in serious trouble.

honestly I think the US’s policy to containment and their various military bases around taiwan and its surrounding islands is the main deterrence. China wouldn’t risk a war with the US and it’s local allies (australia, japan, south korea) just for taiwan. Taiwan is more a key piece in the puzzle of US containment rather than the primary military power

This strategy is pretty much what Finland did in the Winter and Continuation Wars. And it's the basis of the defence policy for the Nordics to this day.

17:00 to be fare war games are supposed to help see flaws in tactics and strategy so they can be improved.

As an American I support the full defense of Taiwan. I’m fully aware just how devastating it would be for the US and the world should China get its hands on the TSMC manufacturing plants. I would imagine there is likely a plan to completely destroy the facilities should China make gains in a conflict. And if that were to happen, then what would China even want with the island? TSMC is by far the most valuable asset in Taiwan and with that destroyed, the need for war is completely diminished.

You know it's not as terrible a scenario because Simon doesn't get out of his chair at the end.

Every time I think I have found all of simon’s channels I find anither

Wow, I have exactly the same sweater vest!

It should be noted that firearms training, safe handling, weapon maintenance and marksmanship is taught in schools in Taiwan to kids. Behind every blade of grass.

Excellent analysis. Thank you. 🙏🏻 Democracies must resist and defeat autocracies. The world order is at stake.

@5:43 dude hops out the apc with a pistol 🤣🤣🤣🤣wtf did i just watch

5:44😂😂 bro fell out the back of the vehicle after training

The psychology of being in that first line of defence must be heavy. You do not expect to survive. You may get wiped out without pulling a trigger. You may never see the enemy but you stand your ground anyway. The great lie works in all languages

Long Live the Nation of Taiwan!

A very good video. One thing you didn’t address (but no criticism that you didn’t) is whether or not the ROK (or even other countries for that matter like the Philippines, India, Vietnam, Singapore, New Zealand, and Australia who’ve all indicated in some way or another that they oppose the PRC) would get involved or if they’d be too preoccupied with a possible North Korean invasion if they were to deploy an expeditionary force

Switzerland 🇨🇭 uses the same defense strategy.

Taiwan is a beautiful COUNTRY

Since most of these scenarios only take into account military confrontation, it would be interesting to see how China would fare when facing international sanctions to the degree Russia is, can't imagine the PRC would go mano a mano with Taiwan and the US without at least some of the significant nations imposing sanctions. considering the amount of resources China needs that it imports and Russias instability making it unlikely to help in fhe amount needed, I can't imagine it would go well

8:37 I'm sorry I just wanted to point out the fact that it looks like Simon murdered the cookie monster & turned him into a sweater! Casual, fluffy & comfy!

@0:49 brain interprets the shot as "why did simon pull something out from star wars?"

Makes Kursk look undefended.

Decouple from China!

How long would it take for Japan us or any others to make it to Taiwan?

I keep on seeing these sorts of analyses, and every single one keeps on either omitting or glossing over the reason *why* the world might actually go to war over Taiwan - Semiconductors. Last I looked, Taiwan comprised around 75% of all global semiconductor fabrication capacity - add that to the around 7% held by the PRC, and you're looking at the PRC wielding an absolute stranglehold over the components required for just about all advanced technology. But this has two devastating consequences - on the one hand, those immense chip foundries directly undermine the porcupine strategy - one predicated on making the loss far worse than the potential gain - unfortunately, those foundries are the sort of collossal prize that might make the cost worth it for PRC to make a play for them. On the other hand, the prospect of that sort of technological domination by the PRC (not to mention all of the potential socio-economic impacts for their own nations' manufacturing bases) makes it incredibly likely that the West and it's Indo-Pacific allies will involve themselves directly. Which leads me on to the part of the strategy that I can't believe doesn't exist, but which if it does must be spectacularly highly classified - what does Taiwan do with those foundries if the invasion comes? Do they endeavour to preserve them? Do they start actively putting them to the torch and either evacuating or liquidating the workforce required to build and operate them? Even with the absence of a burn it all down contingency plan, what happens to those foundries just in the general course of the fighting, and what impacts will that have on the world at large? I don't have numbers to put to it, but i can tell you for free that the outright loss of 75% of global chip production will deliver a cataclysmic hammer blow to the global economy - even before we look at the panic which will almost certainly rip through the financial markets and the consequences of that, that sort of shortage (and one that would take *years,* maybe *decades* to recover from) will bring production lines for everything from cars, to washing machines, to hand-held power tools to a screeching halt. Never mind what it will do to the internet as servers burn out without replacements in the years before new fabs even go into low rate production. Which ultimately is why we *need* the porcupine strategy to work - because if the PRC pulls the trigger anyways, the consequences for the whole world will be savage, even if WW3 doesn't happen, and the nukes stay safely in their silos.

You mentioned mandatory military service and reservists: a couple of weeks ago I saw a documentary where a young man was interviewed who had done his military service. He said that in his 4 months or so of service he had never even touched a weapon