Watch market MELTDOWN! 🔥 Has the ROLEX bubble finally burst?

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Escapement24

Escapement24

Күн бұрын

Secondary market prices are crashing, authorised dealers are announcing profits warnings and some ROLEX models are now even available to buy at RRP from ADs. But what's the short and long term future of the watch market and what does all this mean for enthusiasts and collectors?
Check out the video and let me know your thoughts in the comments. You can also join in with the conversation and post your wristshots on the Escapement24 Discord server here / discord
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#rolex #watches #audemarspiguet #watchreviews #newwatches #newwatchreleases #escapement24

Пікірлер: 275
@DingDong-tj9ce
@DingDong-tj9ce 4 ай бұрын
I was told by a UK Watches of Switzerland sales staff last week when I enquired about a Submariner that I would have to wait 20 years for the watch but if I bought 3 other brands she might be able to sell me a Rolex!! I walked out in disgust and went to a competitor retailer to buy a none Rolex watch. Rolex and WoS have lost the plot and have destroyed their brand. Not interested.
@dellwright1407
@dellwright1407 4 ай бұрын
This would suggest that the popular models are as hard to obtain as ever... so much for the bubble bursting. 20 years for a sub is nuts.
@DingDong-tj9ce
@DingDong-tj9ce 4 ай бұрын
@@dellwright1407 I'm not sure the models are necessarily that popular. Instead, WoS are attempting to use Rolex as bait, requiring customers to spend more by requiring them to buy less popular brands before they will consider them for a Rolex.
@dellwright1407
@dellwright1407 4 ай бұрын
@@DingDong-tj9ce If they weren't that popular then you could go in and buy a submariner without the nonsense. WofS are far from the only ones still playing this came, they all do.
@DingDong-tj9ce
@DingDong-tj9ce 4 ай бұрын
@@dellwright1407 restricting supply artificially certainly helps to create and sustain the luxury brand image. Agree, many ADs are playing the same game.
@dellwright1407
@dellwright1407 4 ай бұрын
@@DingDong-tj9ce the brand image is created by the marketing people at Rolex, plus the design, history etc. This in turn creates the high demand - which in turn means that people are prepared to jump through hoops and/or pay way over retail for a desirable model. Makes sense that the ADs faced with a huge list of people after high-demand watches are going to allocate on the basis of spend history and loyalty to their retail outlet.
@TheMonkini
@TheMonkini Ай бұрын
Four weeks ago I got a call from an AD in Spain about the explorer II black dial being available. A week later, same call from an AD in Switzerland. After 3 years of waiting it is too much coincidence. Absolutely the bubble has burst and they are going after those on the waiting list, who like me, were told to their face "You! are not a customer". I turned them down both. The brand is dead for me. Ludicrous experience is not what a luxury brand should offer. Also the whole thing of being a charity and the way they managed their product like dope is beyond gangster. The CEO can eat his watches one at a time. We are talking watches!! If I dont get a rolex, life goes on and without a rolex goes on without regrets and no stress. I am better off without a mug magnet and being judged negatively by wearing a rolex. The founder must be turning on his grave. The CEO now talking about the risk of watches being considered an investment, and judging other brands during watches and wonders as pirates. Too little too late. Just a barometer of the pressure. There are more handsome watches that are better buys. A buy from the personal experience and not from FOMO.
@anthonycolbourne4206
@anthonycolbourne4206 4 ай бұрын
I think many people are extremely cautious about spending any amount of money at the moment... what used to be a pile of "extra" money to spend on "extra" fun things has become a reserve funds that more people are dipping into. Now they're looking at selling the extra fun things they bought recently to pay for necessities.
@masterwatch
@masterwatch 4 ай бұрын
I think that is true for many people.
@KilgoreOnDrugs
@KilgoreOnDrugs 4 ай бұрын
Also the cypto crash as an additional factor.
@Ultradubmarine
@Ultradubmarine 4 ай бұрын
@@KilgoreOnDrugscrash, BTC is over 40000 dollars!?
@Rhal63
@Rhal63 4 ай бұрын
Well done. So true about the industry. I just bought a Seamaster 300 in Barcelona. I was with a family member who really knew watches and was negotiating the purchase of another watch. Without asking the dealer he gave me 20% off, plus somehow another 21% tax refund at the airport. Thanks
@ulyssesvazquez387
@ulyssesvazquez387 4 ай бұрын
thank you. I am now very happy that my AD never called me to purchase my TwoTone Blue sub. I will wait a few more months and follow the charts. Very informative.
@drticktock4011
@drticktock4011 4 ай бұрын
Great vid! First time seeing your channel. I visited my AD last week, DJs and YM1s for sale in the window. My hunch is more will be available too.
@remus2001
@remus2001 4 ай бұрын
I find both the the JLC and Bremont stories believable. JLC is an amazing brand, but they’ve raised their prices too much, too quickly. Bremont I simply don’t get at all, and I think they’ve always been overpriced.
@user-il1zt8sp5g
@user-il1zt8sp5g 4 ай бұрын
Interestingly the new ceo of Bremont has said that they plan to drastically reduce the price points of bremont over the next few years to be more in the £2k - £5k range 🤔
@UserKR13
@UserKR13 4 ай бұрын
Not surprised hearing the Bremont story either. So overpriced its ridiculous.
@Rolexpert
@Rolexpert 4 ай бұрын
JLC is just that ..great watch but not a demand piece..
@enan1468
@enan1468 4 ай бұрын
Bremont is overpriced
@mdesmet9111
@mdesmet9111 4 ай бұрын
I would say the Rolex bubble will have burst once we can buy the popular models without a waiting list. That might be the case for some models, but not for the popular models like the Daytona, the GMT Master II and even the Submariner. What we see now is simply a correction after the rediculous price increases two years ago. Most brands that are giving discounts now, were giving huge discounts three years ago and since then they hiked up their prices massively.
@alfieakaronaldog
@alfieakaronaldog 4 ай бұрын
That is 100% never going to happen now. Rolex could stop production tomorrow and give their manufacturing staff a years paid holiday 😂
@verynormalman
@verynormalman 4 ай бұрын
I toured my watch contacts in mid January. They were all suffering their own version of the watch cost of living crisis. There is no commission. And they weren't even trying to chase anybody who entered their establishments. I was told that almost every brand was experiencing competition from discounting, if not directly, but by voucher, additions, or gifts. This was very demotivating for the sales staff. Watches had a big up, and they will now swing back to form an equilibrium. With Rolex's new factory, that brand must be very vulnerable. The rude, and may I say vile treatment of customers over the last 3 years has made me realize that it isn't a premium brand.
@PatrickHawthorne
@PatrickHawthorne 4 ай бұрын
thanks for the video. it's nice to hear someone with an honest view of the market with statistics to back it up. is some of the price drops attributed to the cooling off after COVID - you know, that mad period in history when money was no object and everyone thought (not me though) watch values only went up?
@cedarcanoe
@cedarcanoe 4 ай бұрын
Big applause on your video, how you present it and more. Very professional. Thsnks!
@Escapement24
@Escapement24 4 ай бұрын
Thank you buddy that's really appreciated 🙏🙏🙏
@jozsefizsak
@jozsefizsak 4 ай бұрын
People who think infinite growth is possible based on extrapolating from the comparatively recent past are eventually going to discover they were mistaken. It's not that hard to list some reasons why watches won't become more sought after and valuable in an unbroken climb to infinity. Even the very rich will turn away from something that seems to have an insultingly high price that doesn't seem justifiable. Keeping the good times going by increasing prices to make up for dwindling sales is obviously not going to work forever even if it works for a while. There are exceptions to every rule but by definition, expecting to skate by while your competitors falter is possible but unlikely. If the CEOs have come to believe that business cycles are a thing of the past, they will learn a painful lesson which will be much worse for their employees. Your comments are very satisfying in that you're an enthusiast and not a speculator. People like to glorify the practise by calling it investing but it's not.
@jamesnash7262
@jamesnash7262 4 ай бұрын
…this was eye-opening Simon ! the JLC, Bremont and Rolex stories are apocryphal…and as you remind us the industry fell over themselves hyping steel sports watches, each more eager than the last to exploit that market, i’m looking at you Odysseus, a watch i frankly like…the bright side is it encouraged people to look at Japan and independents and vintage pieces…there’s also now a big A in the room that wasn’t mentioned but continues to have outsize influence and that of course is the Apple watch…
@oddpout
@oddpout 4 ай бұрын
Its crazy to think how much price raising were going on in the past few years
@juniorjohnson5961
@juniorjohnson5961 4 ай бұрын
Never pay retail & never pay over retail IMO
@Escapement24
@Escapement24 4 ай бұрын
I don't think there are many watches commanding over retail at the moment!
@patrik3450
@patrik3450 4 ай бұрын
Depends. I don’t want a pre owned watch.. 😅 just like I don’t want a pre owned car. Bad bad experiences
@juniorjohnson5961
@juniorjohnson5961 4 ай бұрын
​@@patrik3450 I bought a Regulator clock at a resale shop then took it to a clock repair shop she told me the same. Never buy a used clock it's like buying a used car you never know what your gonna get. Or a box of chocolate. Forest Gump.
@user-mw8hw4vw6v
@user-mw8hw4vw6v 8 күн бұрын
Over supply of Rolex? Where are they? All the AD's claim that there are none. Oh that's right, they are in the safe waiting for high volume regulars. Smoke and mirrors as usual. It's no surprise to me that the brands that actually make products to sell have dropped the least. To my friends at Rolex: 1. Make more watches to actually sell. 2. Police the pay for play nonsense of your AD's. Then maybe you will stabilize your market.
@chrisjones6439
@chrisjones6439 4 ай бұрын
Really interesting video bud 👍 Just a thought...a wee portion of the figures could be attributed to the market levelling out after previous ridiculous spikes. Totally agree regarding ADs having to discount, and from a consumer standpoint it's great on paper, the discount will only negate the massive price increases. The new Bremont ceo has already hinted he wants to make their prices more attractive. Hasn't the new speedy got the new metas movement which could explain part of the price increase? I can see many enthusiasts, myself included, shunning the big boys and going more micro/independent...
@Escapement24
@Escapement24 4 ай бұрын
Cheers Chris 👍 I think there's definitely a "correction" happening (as financial types say) but I do still wonder whether we'll ever see another spike in the way we did during COVID. After all that was a once in a generation event (let's hope so anyway). But I almost feel that the brands have seen that demand as the new normal and many have used it as a basis for price increases 🤔 Having spent more time looking at the Apollo 8 I've now seen it does indeed have the METAS movement - but even that doesn't justify such a steep price hike IMO. Tudor (sorry 😂) went METAS with the new black bay and didn't need to increase the price by such a high margin. Apart from the rocket hand that personally I think cheapens the look of the watch, I think most people wouldn't be able to tell the new model from the old without studying it closely.
@chrisjones6439
@chrisjones6439 4 ай бұрын
@@Escapement24 totally agree with everything you said. May sound stupid, I actually think some brands were too cheap in a way....jlc should never be in the same price bracket as Omega /Tudor...just my opinion...BUT as a massive fan their price hikes have been extremely aggressive, to the point of being ridiculous
@dunderhay9169
@dunderhay9169 4 ай бұрын
A very interesting analysis 👍. It was pretty obvious a couple of years ago we were in a bubble, a friend told me she was on the Rolex waiting list purely to store the watch and sell for profit, I hold her not to be so sure. The really rare watches will hold value, but the mass produced models are already over supplied, because so many who bought for investment are trying to get their money back. As well as absurd price increases, I think the way Rolex ADs treated potential customers will come back to bite them, being ridiculed when asking to spend your money is a bitter pill and many won't return ever.
@Escapement24
@Escapement24 4 ай бұрын
Couldn't agree more, I've always struggled with the idea of some ADs making customers feel "grateful" that they allow them to buy a watch. I mean, come on we're talking about mass produced products not ultra luxury. Call me old fashioned but it's the customer that's paying their wages at the end of the day....maybe some of those ADs are now realising this 🤔
@dunderhay9169
@dunderhay9169 4 ай бұрын
@@Escapement24 Let's hope so!
@kw8757
@kw8757 4 ай бұрын
@@Escapement24 I'm seriously hoping WoS go bust, or at least have to wind down their business significantly, and other AD's too.
@sjcampbell8
@sjcampbell8 4 ай бұрын
Im interested to see how Omega prices their special edition watches this year. Its Olympics and Apollo 11 anniversaries very close together which i would love to pick one up. But cant see the value in $20k AUD Omegas when the most sought after snoopy sold for just 8k 8-9 years ago.
@PatQuakernaat
@PatQuakernaat 4 ай бұрын
Watch lovers are cautious and pee'd off. The grey markets had a few cases of fraud with ponsy schemes and fakes. The new high price tags and unavailability are pissing off new buyers. Lastly there is safety, you'll find that only in Dubai you can wear expensive watches safely.
@Canadian_Eh_I
@Canadian_Eh_I 4 ай бұрын
Yup, all good point especially about the 'eat the rich' types. Rich people aren't dumb and are being a bit more careful about conspicuous consumption.
@bjoernaltmann
@bjoernaltmann 4 ай бұрын
Yes, very interesting situation. Some Rolex references are available to buy now at WoS, yes. Solid gold and two tone, that is. No change yet with the steel models. - JLC prices have gone up too much, I had been wondering already who would still buy. And the problem is: they can't go back. - I like pre-owned. That way I don't have to worry about scratches
@antonv5488
@antonv5488 4 ай бұрын
AP was changing down the MSRP on some of their models already, so it's possible.
@lordcharfield4529
@lordcharfield4529 4 ай бұрын
Great channel. You gave a great analysis of the luxury watch market at the moment, many thanks. Have you considered covering Christopher Ward watches? I have the C60 300 Atoll in ‘reef blue’ it’s beautiful. Anyway, I’ve subscribed 👍
@Escapement24
@Escapement24 4 ай бұрын
Thanks so much 🙏 I covered the new CW C1 Moon phase last year but they rarely include me on the circulation list for press samples
@DoDavidDo
@DoDavidDo 4 ай бұрын
Fantastic video!
@cocorvado
@cocorvado 4 ай бұрын
I bought a Speedmaster Moonphase in a shop last year. Two month later i found it on Chrono24 for a discount of 30%. When you buy a "normal" watch it is like to buy a car; the moment you leave the store you already lost 10%. I would suggest to wait the bottom and then buy preowned like hell. More and more people are realising that only the stupid loose that amount of money for a watch. I buy gold-vintage from the 50th to 70th, where you can find chronographs with date and moonphase for around 4000. I NEVER would buy a steel watch for 20000 plus, just because some corrupt idiots tell me that this is the only way to impress. Talking about: The last time i showed up with a 36mm Breitling from the 50th in red gold, my surrounding got nuts. Moreover: Tudor is not the Rolex for the poor, it is a reasonable priced nice watch in good quality. All this of cause doesn’t apply to the high end like PP or FPJ… if a (really) small manufacture is only capable to produce 10 watches per year and these watches are the best in haute horlogerie, they deserve the money. All the rest? Forget it.
@mrgee007
@mrgee007 4 ай бұрын
Great vid Simon. I've been using Watch Charts since lockdown and was shocked when I 1st saw the value of my watch collection vs Chrono's prices 😂 However I wasn't sure what they used to get the prices, so thanks for explaining. Still confused what the graph at the bottom of Chrono24 shows then? My local AD offered me a black dial DJ 41mm 8 months ago which I declined as I was down for a blue motif 41mm DJ. The fire's gone out now to own one, waited too long. If Rolex don't pull their finger out and make a load more watches, why would an AD invest so much to deck out their store in Rolex colours, to barely have any watches to sell, goes against any basic business model. I was down Bremont's Wing HQ last year, very impressive, but how the hell can they survive, their prices are crazy, no history, I never see anyone talk about them or wear them. Interesting times. The bubbles burst, but it's still deflating, this isn't the end of the prices going down further.
@Escapement24
@Escapement24 4 ай бұрын
Thanks man and I completely agree, I think the next few months will be telling as there's bound to be some twitching at the board room tables in Switzerland when the Q1 figures come in
@AW-wm9bk
@AW-wm9bk 4 ай бұрын
Completely agree with you... Price will drop... we reached the top...
@gavinsverdloff4291
@gavinsverdloff4291 4 ай бұрын
I predict that the watch market will return to buyers being able to purchase either stock or sensible waiting times. In December 2002, I purchased a new Rolex Pearlmaster 18k yellow gold, Pearl face, diamond numerals, fabulous diamond bezel contained in a beautiful Jewellery box with a 25% discount off the retail price.
@johnjacobson9528
@johnjacobson9528 3 ай бұрын
Just ordered a Sprite GMT from AD owner at MSRP. Should have in a month or so. I had a nice datejust to trade so that probably helped.
@sahil1112
@sahil1112 3 ай бұрын
I walked into the Paris Airport rolex store 2 days ago and I was given an option to buy a white gold day-date at list price minus the tax. I passed it as it is not I was looking for but after a long time I can see the AD'S being flexible on availability
@Escapement24
@Escapement24 3 ай бұрын
Thanks, that's really interesting. I'm getting a lot of similar messages and comments which supports my belief that demand is so weak right now the ADs have to be far more flexible or risk going out of business
@joshy3602
@joshy3602 4 ай бұрын
I want the rootbeer or sprite.. do i pay retail (on the waiting list) or do i go grey market?
@RL-xf2fy
@RL-xf2fy 4 ай бұрын
I wouldn’t pay a premium for a root beer, they’re pretty easy to get via an AD.
@ArthurvanH0udt
@ArthurvanH0udt 4 ай бұрын
at around 4m40 daytona gold, isn't a down in price logical from the fact that retail price of the gold watches is crazy high? so there's more room to go down?
@StovaxGS
@StovaxGS 4 ай бұрын
Went to WoS in Sussex last week was informed my choice, Rolex Explorer 40 224270 the wait is approx 2 to 2.5 years! (I bought a Tag Heuer F1 from them last year too) Currently there’s 115 on Chrono 24 starting at £6999. (RRP £6650. Something is going wrong somewhere……..
@Robert-vw3od
@Robert-vw3od 4 ай бұрын
another angle to be considered is that a brand like Longines has now produced a lot of watches in the 2.5 to 3.5 thousand price, these watches have viewed as chasing tutor. this is exactly the area which is going to be decimated. We are already seeing heavy discounts and I would predict 20% is going to be the standard. this is going to be the same with the Entry level omega and the variety of other brands.
@Escapement24
@Escapement24 4 ай бұрын
That's interesting. Certainly I know that Tudor ADs here in the UK are struggling to shift models that previously had waitlists - I'm seeing models like the FXD, BB54 and Chrono in AD windows and available to buy (and I'd be surprised if you couldn't get a discount).
@Robert-vw3od
@Robert-vw3od 4 ай бұрын
@@Escapement24 places like the Trafford Centre will be a bloodbath for “ luxury” watch sales. AP lange patek and co will be ok in London. Christopher Ward are going to have a field day and they are going to take a lot of business away from mainstream jewellers. this is what these people who haven’t given a care about the likes of me during the last three years need to realise I’m someone who come back again and again, look after your prime customers. 100% agree with you about Zenith.
@alang5293
@alang5293 4 ай бұрын
It’s supply and demand. I purchased a 41mm aqua terra from an AD a few weeks ago. Omega discounted it 15% and my AD another 10%. Happy with the watch and happy with the price.
@Escapement24
@Escapement24 4 ай бұрын
Absolutely right. That's a phenomenal discount though even in the current climate!
@RolexGMTII
@RolexGMTII 4 ай бұрын
I think the problem I have seen is that Rolex has gotten into the secondary market so it won't benefit them to sell new which is mush less than the secondary market.
@HORIZONTIMEPASSIONEOROLOGI
@HORIZONTIMEPASSIONEOROLOGI 4 ай бұрын
Thanks for the precious information.. in Italy there is a lot of trade in the second wrist market, speedmasters are going strong, Rolexes also given that there is a 4% increase in the price lists of new ones, while the models whose close production in 2024 they immediately increased their value... the watch market is going well, it's a spinning wheel, those with more experience know when to buy what to buy and when to sell... let's wait for May and see how things change :)
@Escapement24
@Escapement24 4 ай бұрын
That's really interesting, thanks for the insight on the Italian market. I guess I assumed the situation in the UK would be similar elsewhere
@tibhen8473
@tibhen8473 4 ай бұрын
In Thailand to get a Rolex you need to buy a Tudor 😂 so instead I bought a JLC and a seiko, those brands accepted my money 😂
@hdvaco
@hdvaco 3 ай бұрын
which jlc model do you bought?
@verynormalman
@verynormalman 2 ай бұрын
Really? When you buy a fake Rolex, you have to buy a Tudor fake? I went to the Bond St boutique of JLC a few months ago, and was totally underwhelmed by the quality of their watches. I am used to vintage, which seems much better. Perhaps they are doing a Mercedes in reducing quality. Of course no one fakes a Seiko. They do their own.
@tibhen8473
@tibhen8473 2 ай бұрын
@@verynormalman Real rolex, they are plenty of rolex ADs here in Bangkok. JLC is better than rolex in most areas, everyone agrees on that, attention to details, finitions, warranty 7 years...
@hlim431
@hlim431 4 ай бұрын
Good for the industry, some sanity to the market...
@user-fj7ly8jx5n
@user-fj7ly8jx5n 4 ай бұрын
WOS - obviously the management have no idea what is happening in their shops. My cousin went in to the WOS shop where he bought his Datejust and asked for a Sub date. They wouldn't even put him on the list! So they've got too many and yet you can't get on the list? I took him to my AD (Prestons Rolex Boutique in Leeds) and he's now on their list and I'm confident he will have his watch by the summer.
@Escapement24
@Escapement24 4 ай бұрын
It does make you wonder if there's a disconnect between the management and the staff in the stores 🤔
@Fatboylo1980
@Fatboylo1980 4 ай бұрын
I got a call to pick up a submariner blusey in a busy city without any real effort on my part. So I’d say things are changing for sure
@wwilll
@wwilll 4 ай бұрын
It’s mostly the Submariner, GMT Master, Sea Dweller in fact any of the stainless steel sports models that are very popular, trouble is that Rolex make many different models and variants which means they only make one or two thousand of each, the demand for a Submariner is a lot higher so prices will stay high.
@kevinh5349
@kevinh5349 4 ай бұрын
When a Hulk is back down to around $13k I'll believe things are getting back to normal.
@stephenwilliams7056
@stephenwilliams7056 4 ай бұрын
I've seen them for 13k. Guy in Cardiff. Lee Roberts watches of the Vale 👌
@anchaleekeamkeaw3552
@anchaleekeamkeaw3552 4 ай бұрын
Does this provide an opportunity for smaller/micro brands who may offer quality products at more realistic prices?
@Escapement24
@Escapement24 4 ай бұрын
I think so
@KRSchannel
@KRSchannel 4 ай бұрын
Not sure why anyone wants to look at wrist watches as a stock?: watches are not an asset or an investment, not sure who started this losing scheme. Buy any watch you want because you want to wear it, tear it and just throw it out, you'll bring more stress to your life when you buy them as an investments. It's like collecting baseball cards, 1 out of 10000 might go up in value by 200%.
@scottr3141
@scottr3141 Ай бұрын
Exactly , it's like buying Beenie Babies back in the day . They're ended up being worth nothing.
@LifeinChina75
@LifeinChina75 3 ай бұрын
Bremont's store here in Shanghai seems to have disappeared!
@Escapement24
@Escapement24 3 ай бұрын
That's interesting 🤔
@dylvasey
@dylvasey 2 ай бұрын
Isn't that drop based on the peak though? A year ago a Rolex (in general) was at an unsustainable peak.
@Escapement24
@Escapement24 2 ай бұрын
Completely agree, but people were paying those peak prices and are now in negative equity
@jaysp1910
@jaysp1910 4 ай бұрын
Funny, I was in a WOS group store at the weekend chasing my wait list watch. No steel sports Rolex watches but could have many bi-metal as they had them available. Seems to go against the CEO comments.
@Escapement24
@Escapement24 4 ай бұрын
That's interesting 🤔 I do wonder if the official line from WoS was a plausible excuse to keep shareholders happy but in reality that the main problem is that demand has fallen back to pre 2020 levels (or even below)
@Danomite99
@Danomite99 4 ай бұрын
Definitely, there are some models that are still priced so high on the grey market, that unfortunately, AD’s will still have your nuts in a vice.
@maxinahunt8652
@maxinahunt8652 4 ай бұрын
Meanwhile the waiting list has opened for Anodain…..I would be waiting for 4yrs before I will be called up……
@jrgb9945
@jrgb9945 4 ай бұрын
No, you cannot just walk in a get a Rolex. That’s absolutely bullshit. I was in five ADs in Vegas--all exhibition only. Same in Park City. Same in Tampa. Same in Miami.
@Escapement24
@Escapement24 4 ай бұрын
I can't speak for the US market and probably should've made that clear in the video, but the situation seems very different here in the UK and I've had multiple people here tell me they've been offered watches with little or no waitlist
@WestCoastAce27
@WestCoastAce27 4 ай бұрын
@@Escapement24 I think his pt is directed at the Gringa - she’s American. And he’s 100% correct - w/o connections or a history the odds of getting called for a Rolex are very thin on this side of the pond. Rolex has made no effort to stop flipping (they could - easily) so the sales people still sell them out the back door - $4k profit instead of $6k? It’s still a nice supplement to their income.
@kw8757
@kw8757 4 ай бұрын
@@Escapement24 The AD in Chester UK has suddenly lost the '"Display Only" signs and now have the actual price next to each Rolex, I was thinking of going in to see what the purchase situation is....but at the same time I feel quite bitter about their attitude over the last few years so I'm also thinking "fuck 'em".
@GM-ii8gs
@GM-ii8gs 4 ай бұрын
​@@WestCoastAce27 Britt is Canadian, but lives in UK.
@GM-ii8gs
@GM-ii8gs 4 ай бұрын
​@@kw8757 Don't get too excited, been in two UK AD in the last week, one WoS, both said Rolex told them to take the exhibition only signs down and put prices back in the window, but they have to hang on to the stock because they don't know what arriving and what's coming though is in small quantities, but perhaps Rolex UK is anticipating and planning for a substantial shipment from Switzerland, from what I've been able to find out over the year is Rolex ships many thousands of watches to the country subsidiary in one go, sometimes tens of thousands to a big market in one go to make security measures easier, it is the country subsidiary who hold the stock and then release it to the ADs.
@paulstone9667
@paulstone9667 4 ай бұрын
This is very interesting.
@Demolego1980
@Demolego1980 4 ай бұрын
I was lucky to know an AD through a family friend to get me a Batman in 4 days last week. I bought it for my wife because she really liked it for our 15th wedding anniversary. I gave the AD the 3 choices I wanted and whichever I could get first I said I’d take. I told him the sprite, Pepsi or Batman. Batman was my first choice to be honest so I’m happy to get it and give it my wife to wear the crap of it before passing it to our eldest. I’m planning to try and get a sprite for my youngest as she’s a lefty. I must say that I didn’t expect to get one in 4 days though. Im not looking to flip or sell, I just really like it and want to wear it so it doesn’t matter to me whether the price goes up or down after I’ve bought it. My bro continues on his waiting list for a Pepsi 😅
@stever7097
@stever7097 4 ай бұрын
Excellent video.
@Escapement24
@Escapement24 4 ай бұрын
Cheers Steve 👍
@mrthinkpositive-ty9hl
@mrthinkpositive-ty9hl 4 ай бұрын
Have been seeing many Rolex in the showcase at the AD for a few months now. Mostly gold Day-Date & SD and some steel DJ. Friends that couldn’t get a watch before are now being offered Sprites, BatMan and others. There is a definite change. I have lost some interest myself when you hear that prices are dropping with many below retail. It’s only natural
@DannyBrooks1
@DannyBrooks1 4 ай бұрын
It’s about time!
@Plan-C
@Plan-C Күн бұрын
In any shallow and relatively illiquid market, it is easy to move the market. It can move for you or against you quite significantly with relatively little volume. The market is 'lumpy' and not really transparent. I would not rely too much on those figures but anything that people sat at home trading and pumping up during the zero percent interest rates of the pandemic is basically correcting. Supply takes a while to wind up and wind down, if you will pardon the pun. Basically, the increased supply is hitting a much reduced demand. Much of the previous market was made of 'candy floss'. People had no interest in the underlying but we're basically trading on the 'bigger fool' mentality. Pass the parcel if you will. The music has slowed significantly.
@ericfroment4065
@ericfroment4065 4 ай бұрын
The all waiting list and attitude of AD made me hate rolex, if they call me know I will not give them my cash!
@chriselley2261
@chriselley2261 4 ай бұрын
Enjoyed your take on the market. Would like to point out though that while the left-hand GMT Sprite may have lost 14.4% of its resale value in the past year, it’s still a watch that retails for €9,800 and carries a resale of €14,393. I’d hardly say the sky is falling. If you can source this watch from an AD at RSP you’ve instantly realized a €5000 gain. Rolex market doesn’t seem so bad (depending on the model). I’m not a flipper, but I do believe Rolex continues to retain more value than most other brands, and that the expectation of value retention makes it a lot easier to pull the trigger when considering purchasing.
@hadrienbouquet6450
@hadrienbouquet6450 4 ай бұрын
WoS share price drop is primarily driven by the acquisition of Bucherer by Rolex... If Rolex effectively accounts for 55-60% of WoS rev, there is indeed sth to worry. Pointing out strictly the economy and the spending in the UK is absolutely wrong and misleading… In regards to the price drops, also easy to compare on a 6 months basis. Any steel model you get from a Rolex AD would still trade above RRP. For instance the Sprite prob trades @ 2x while down by 10-15% over the past 6 months.
@twowheels833
@twowheels833 4 ай бұрын
But who'd want to buy a Brement - an over-priced brand, up its own arse?
@exvan3571
@exvan3571 4 ай бұрын
They met a farmer in some part of Normandy who was the Red Baron. Or something.
@michaelfierman3256
@michaelfierman3256 4 ай бұрын
Hey Simon, yeah I’d hate to “have” to sell a watch in this market. Because Chrono24 doesn’t charge you to list anything I keep a few of mine on there and I can tell you one either gets absolutely lowballed to death or no enquiries at all. I’m actually not looking to sell, but I like to have a handle on what my stuff is actually “worth”. Love that Defy you have your eyes on. Good news is that you’ll get a great price on it whenever you decide to pull the trigger, but the bad news is…. I’m sure you’ve looked .. our Tudors are bringing in really bad numbers on Watch Charts. I do find it crazy to fathom the price increases Omega has been foisting about, but then you see ( in the UK especially) that the ADs are regular advertising 20% off online. Even on summer blue models!
@Escapement24
@Escapement24 4 ай бұрын
Thanks Michael I might follow your idea and leave a couple of my watches on Chrono24!
@bestboy897
@bestboy897 4 ай бұрын
watches going down in prices help my wallet will definitely be in danger.
@sdcoinshooter
@sdcoinshooter 4 ай бұрын
It may have deflated a little, but it won’t be completely busted until you can walk in to an AD and choose any Rolex to buy out of the case.
@Escapement24
@Escapement24 4 ай бұрын
That day might not be too far away. Rolex has a new factory and has increased production at the very same time as demand has all but dried up. They won't stop shipping product out to ADs so unless demand picks up again you're going to see a lot more models in windows and available to purchase.
@markdance574
@markdance574 4 ай бұрын
I think pricing of watches has become a joke topic - I remember two years ago thinking wow a Monaco is £5500 retail , now it’s £6800 - and the night driver edition is £8300 . Omega seem to have choosen the new planet ocean prices by using one of those lottery pens - as for WOS - the new boutique at Bluewater looks amazing and they’ve clearly gone after more brands to adjust the loss in interest of Rolex but for me that boutique will never see a penny of my money - for years that group has been supplying watches directly to Watchfinder for an immediate profit above rrp, they’ve acted like they’ve been selling the cure for cancer but first you need to buy other items before you can get on the list - personally I hope a lot of brands take a good look at Rolex falling apart and act quickly to try and recover .
@leeharding8306
@leeharding8306 4 ай бұрын
The retail prices are now much too high and people have just had enough of it. You will be walking around with nearly 10k on your wrist now rather than 5k from a few years ago if you’re a big watch enthusiasts. You can see why watch crime is so high. If you’re one of those flippers that has a “Rolex relationship” it’s now not worth licking the AD’s arse for watches. Most models aren’t worth more than retail on the grey market. At least Rolex makes an excellent product. Omega is still knocking out thick watches with small power reserves and awful bracelets and bezels and they think they can ramp up their prices too. Apparently they aren’t selling and many stores are discounting Omega in a big way just to get rid off them.
@hardy3559
@hardy3559 4 ай бұрын
Absolutely agree with you. I’ve got 30 ish watches only one over a grand a CW gmt I’m glad Rolex is getting a wake-up call . I have some stunning value watches for under £100 . The top brands are tacking pi** enjoyed your comment 👏👏👏👏
@algernonwolfwhistle6351
@algernonwolfwhistle6351 4 ай бұрын
You make some good observations. The watch market is returning to watch enthusiasts from the watch speculators and in that sense it's not a cyclical trend but a normalisation and very welcome. Does that mean that the price of new luxury watches need to normalise / reduce too? I think that you're right in that if they don't reduce RRP, then dealers will have to cut their margins and reduce profits to make sales. Isn't that a shame! As I see it, the big problem for Rolex, who have been 30% of new watch market sales, is winning back the trust of loyal customers who were there before the boom and then were sidelined by dealers because they could have more lucrative business with flippers. The imaginary "list", that was never actually there became conditional on buying other less in demand, watches and jewellery before anyone could be considered for a Rolex sports watch. And they are now surprised that those once loyal customers are no longer interested in doing business?? That poses a big problem for WoS and their ilk.
@isaakwalton9600
@isaakwalton9600 4 ай бұрын
Bloody hell, scary.
@jamesdenton9069
@jamesdenton9069 4 ай бұрын
Finally someone speaking sense…
@KIckAssPinball
@KIckAssPinball 4 ай бұрын
Walked into the Vegas AD yesterday and they begged me to buy one of 3 watches in stock! Steal Datejust very nice watches, not what I was looking for! They even pushed it's worth 30% more. Really??
@simonbutler377
@simonbutler377 2 ай бұрын
itwill slowly descend, it will not burst. Plenty of people like me who are waiitng for used prices to come down to list price and will buy.
@BruceW.-hs9qq
@BruceW.-hs9qq 4 ай бұрын
Aren't the decreases in pricing based on the inflated aftermarket pricing? Most Rolex buyers who paid at or near MSRP have not fared as badly.
@Escapement24
@Escapement24 4 ай бұрын
That's absolutely right. Though there are more people who have had to buy at grey market prices in the last few years than were able to buy at RRP from an AD unfortunately
@CPooter
@CPooter 4 ай бұрын
Patek UK just upped prices by around 7% as far as I can see.
@Escapement24
@Escapement24 4 ай бұрын
That's a steep rise, but I guess if you can afford a PP then they probably figure that you'll pay an extra 7%
@gigi11223
@gigi11223 2 ай бұрын
not here, still cant buy in an ad, resellers got all the stocks...not even a display of hot models
@SPQR-Z
@SPQR-Z 4 ай бұрын
Watching younger watch enthusiasts lament the watch industry’s decline. You mentioned cyclical trends. Right. That along with Lux Watch prices yearly increases, inflation and of course premiums. 1960’s a Rolex Submariner no date was
@robertoguerra5375
@robertoguerra5375 2 ай бұрын
Perhaps it is not what watch that has come down in price. Maybe the dollars have stopped losing their value. Looking at the charts’ axes, we can see this is just a hiccup: from 27 to 26 The growth in prices may be related to the rent price of the mall store Invest only the money that you are willing to lose
@Robert-vw3od
@Robert-vw3od 4 ай бұрын
it was always the case that watches whose retail price was under eight £9000. If they had been ridiculously overvalued in the last three years, we’re going to come back down to earth without getting far enough into the video I’ll bet you that black bay pro has lost almost a third of its value. it wouldn’t bother me because I don’t understand how people bought watches that were under £10,000 retail as an investment. It’s outrageous
@Robert-vw3od
@Robert-vw3od 4 ай бұрын
two words, I find disgusting, investor, shareholder. These words, disgusted me as much as the word paedophile. I hope some of these flippers or people who dived into watches for a few quid really suffer losing thousands of pounds suffer financial hardship. . Watches are something there to enjoy.great interest, the engineering, the history, the joy of ownership, not something that some scumbag thinks he or she can make a few quid from.
@mondeo984
@mondeo984 Ай бұрын
Im still ready to pay full retail price for a Batgirl or a Datejust 126333. Totally out of the question to buy a used Rolex over retail, never in a lifetime. Love to see people who are just out for a quick buck have to exit, maybe it will make it faster that I get my well decerved Rolex in a fair decent trade.
@olanderdecastro52
@olanderdecastro52 4 ай бұрын
I’m that Yank who is waiting around for new Ford F150 pick up truck to drop to $40,000 and a Rolex submariner to go for $3500. Still waiting…
@GM-ii8gs
@GM-ii8gs 4 ай бұрын
Ahh, the 90's, remember it well 😢
@Sam123QU29
@Sam123QU29 2 ай бұрын
I'd rather get a Harley-Davidson for 30k
@olanderdecastro52
@olanderdecastro52 2 ай бұрын
@@Sam123QU29 Understood. Each of us has our own desires. I have a young kid, so my risk profile has changed and I can’t afford to get hit by a car riding a motorcycle. I live in a dense urban population and the traffic is crazy.
@scottr3141
@scottr3141 Ай бұрын
@@Sam123QU29 Get a used one for 12k, the prices are falling threw the floor with HD. Only thing I never lost money on was my house, and my gun collection.
@nickwalsh527
@nickwalsh527 4 ай бұрын
You correctly identify the direction of travel as far as prices for Rolex pieces go over the past 6 months. But by doing so you miss out the enormous bubble that these watches have been in since 2019/20. So is it now possible to buy the most desireable stainless steel models at MSRP? Generally no - not even on the seondary market. So less expensive? Yes. Has the bubble burst? Not so much.
@Johnwis-gp9yy
@Johnwis-gp9yy 3 ай бұрын
No chance of getting popular steel pepsi, daytona, starbucks. Luckily, I want a sub no date so maybe within a year it might happen.
@AmitBhandari82
@AmitBhandari82 4 ай бұрын
THAT’s what that noise was! 😂 Great vid bud 👊🏼👍🏼 Will you be moving the Monza? 🤔🧐
@Escapement24
@Escapement24 4 ай бұрын
Thanks man 🙏👍😂 I wore the Monza today for the first time in a while. I think it will stay in the collection...unless I had an offer I couldn't refuse 🤔 Never say never.
@AmitBhandari82
@AmitBhandari82 4 ай бұрын
@@Escapement24 lemme check watchcharts 🤣
@Escapement24
@Escapement24 4 ай бұрын
@AmitBhandari82 I can save you the trouble....it's worth about £4.62 currently, like most of the others in my collection 😂
@AmitBhandari82
@AmitBhandari82 4 ай бұрын
@@Escapement24 gonna dm you on IG
@vincenzocherubini2424
@vincenzocherubini2424 4 ай бұрын
Probable reason, people are pissed-off getting snubbed or even insulted by the AD's (particularly Rolex). Now it's come back to bite thm on the arse. BTW, i also recently popped in my local Omega as i fancied the 57 chrono. They had it in stock and even offered a discount. Real customer service. Maybe Rolex could send their staff to Omega for some training in customer care. Cheers.
@mbingham10
@mbingham10 4 ай бұрын
Lost 14.4% of its market value but what you fail to mention about the GMT Sprite is it was trading for 300% over its retail so a small drop of 14.4% is small beans really isn’t it, a bit of scaremongering going on here.
@maxilopez1596
@maxilopez1596 3 ай бұрын
People are getting a lesson on scarcity. Luxury watches just aren't that scarce and have an ever increasing supply. Bitcoin with a 21 million hard cap is scarce.
@nycmaverick
@nycmaverick 4 ай бұрын
I’m going to pick up my Rolex Explorer 40 tomorrow should I offer them less than sticker price.
@Escapement24
@Escapement24 4 ай бұрын
I'm not sure Rolex will give any discounts on RRP (though Tudor would) but I would ask for some freebies
@Watchgang123
@Watchgang123 4 ай бұрын
You definitely should ask
@nycmaverick
@nycmaverick 4 ай бұрын
I will ask and report back on how it went. Just so we are clear I am not a reseller. I am actually going to daily this Explorer even though it is the most expensive watch I have ever owned by 8 fold.
@Escapement24
@Escapement24 4 ай бұрын
@nycmaverick hope that Exp gives you many years of enjoyment buddy 👍
@ianforber
@ianforber 4 ай бұрын
@@nycmaverick how did you get on?
@georgeyung3546
@georgeyung3546 4 ай бұрын
Most people who purchase a luxury watches will buy it on credit. How many folks do you know can pull out of the bank £30 to 50k to a but watch. Even if they could, most likely they will be savvy enough not to, and invest it on stocks or other investments. The watch industry is aĺl hyped up by advertisements, KZfaq and sports stars. Just look at the interest rates now. I would say 70% of people with mortgages now are suffering. Why because they fell into the same trap, with banks, advertisements and government say lower mortgages and its good time to get in. Before 2008 US crash, the interest rates was around 6 to 7% globally. And not many folks complained then.
@razvanyke
@razvanyke 3 ай бұрын
Very nice and logical video, my friend. New Sub here, take care !
@Escapement24
@Escapement24 3 ай бұрын
Thanks for the sub 🙏🙏
@mortgagemartin3987
@mortgagemartin3987 4 ай бұрын
I will be glad when the market crashes to the bottom as these ADs seem to think they are gods. I was on the list for a few different Rolex models but switched to omega and got the Aqua terra due to their BS, I will pick up some Rolex watches this year when the market is lower and hopefully below retail.
@Danomite99
@Danomite99 4 ай бұрын
Long gone are the days that a Rolex AD requires you to “build a purchase history” prior to having an opportunity to buy the piece you want. It will be nice to have some buying leverage again when it’s time for my next purchase.
@dellwright1407
@dellwright1407 4 ай бұрын
I still don't think you are going to wander into a Rolex AD and ask for a Starbucks sub, Daytona, GMT etc - you'll need a purchase history for all of those... and a large one at that here in the UK.
@danh9442
@danh9442 4 ай бұрын
If you are a watch lover then as you say "I don't buy watches as investments". I doubt the sincerity of "watch lovers" who care about investment. Just my tuppence.
@Escapement24
@Escapement24 4 ай бұрын
I agree 💯 I've never bought a watch because I think it'll appreciate in value...but on the flip side I have been disappointed when I've wanted/needed to sell a watch only to find that it's worth almost nothing 😭😂
@clifgavin8568
@clifgavin8568 4 ай бұрын
Couldn’t agree more!
@wreagfe
@wreagfe 2 ай бұрын
Some watches have gone down to a certain degree in 6 months, what they went up in one month almost EVERY month at some point over the last 4-6 years easily. It's called a correction. One can say unlimited amounts of 'wow', but that doesn't make it an argument, of.... I don't really get what your point is. Watches that allegedly should hold their value, given as a blanket statement makes no sense, no one makes that argument. Over which period, at what price, are better qualifiers to that question. You still may be right, that some kind of bubbles has popped, or will pop, but I don't really see any compelling arguments being made other than, "oh look at these red percentage numbers that are very small in comparison to the green percentage numbers over the last 6 years."
@thebestoffools
@thebestoffools 4 ай бұрын
These days, it seems like any nobody can buy a Rolex. Luxury watches were never meant to be sold to the masses. Luxury watch companies are only giving back the market to the entitled rich. It's no surprise they are cutting on production only so they can hike the prices and make sure only a few rich people can afford their watches. If you're rich and anyone can get the watch you want, where's the interest of getting this watch anymore?
@Airbag1010674
@Airbag1010674 3 ай бұрын
They've massively increased production. Rolexes were never hard to get until 2019. It's over. Rolex needs to make money. Once they flood showrooms the unobtanium allure is gone and so is the demand
@ace1gl
@ace1gl 3 ай бұрын
I am done with the AD's and will not ever use a grey market scum. You use to be able to go in to the AD get the watch you wanted more often than not at a discount. Now most of them play games where you have buy crap you don't even want. Then they act like they are doing you a favor. No thanks. Easy to get a super clone of any watch you want with out getting ripped off.
@Gixer750pilot
@Gixer750pilot 4 ай бұрын
I was in Bath last weekend and in Mallory’s window they had a two tone Rolex submariner in the window that was actually ticking !!!! Not a display but Bly model . So I’m assuming I could t have walked straight in and bought it !!!
@Escapement24
@Escapement24 4 ай бұрын
I've no doubt you could. Even Rolex ADs are getting desperate in the current economic climate and will take any opportunity to shift stock and put pound notes in the bank.
@GM-ii8gs
@GM-ii8gs 4 ай бұрын
Lots of ADs have had a bluesy and the LN since last summer, since grey prices have been close to the retail prices.
4 ай бұрын
I’m only half way into the video but I have to write this. These price drops are drops from the spike prices. Completely hyped prices that we saw during the frenzy of two years ago. Those prices only lasted a couple of months and don’t reflect the general price at all. It’s like throwing a ball in the air and when you catch it on its way down, you say “omg, that ball fell!” If these drops in prices were drops from the retail price, or.. from a long standing general market value, then it would be news. Instead, these drops are from the spike / anomaly that occurred two years ago. Not the same thing. I don’t know why folks are having a tough time understanding this. But maybe you point this out later in the video.
@Escapement24
@Escapement24 4 ай бұрын
I take the point but surely the market value is the only value you can go by if something isn't available at RRP? It's like the property market. If you buy a house for £1m and next year it's worth £850K, you wouldn't say "yeah but when the house was built it cost £500K so the market price doesn't matter"...or would you?
@Escapement24
@Escapement24 4 ай бұрын
Just re-read your comment and you're right that these prices were an anomaly driven by the COVID lockdown conditions, so can't argue with that. But I do think the world started to see those prices as the norm, and I also think brands have been sucked in to that mindset and have increased prices as a result. What do you think?
4 ай бұрын
@@Escapement24 They hadn't time to see those prices as the norm. It only lasted 2 months. Look at every graph out there and you'll see the same horn shaped spike. Especially / only on hype pieces. The black daytona was 24K euro before the spike. It's 25K now. Just cos it flew up to 32K for a couple of months doesn't mean anything in the grand scheme of things. I bought a rootbeer at 17K before the spike. It went to 29K during the spike. You still can't get one for 17K even now. (euro) I was offered a 5711 in 2019 for 50K. I was tempted cos they were going for 65k. Can you even find me one for less than 90K now??? Doesn't matter that they were 190K during the frenzy / spike. It's irrelevant. But if you read a chart, it's going to say "a fall of 50%!" Heaven help us.
@Escapement24
@Escapement24 4 ай бұрын
Interesting! What's your take on the sudden improvement of availability at ADs (at least here in the UK) and the hefty discounts we're seeing on other brands like Zenith and Omega?
4 ай бұрын
@@Escapement24 discounts on zenith and omega are nothing new. The improvement of availability at Rolex AD's is slight. You can get an explorer 2 or a black dial DJ pretty quick. That's the way it always was. I still hear from viewers every day how they were turned away or still waiting after years for a sub, pepsi, daytona etc. Things have resumed their previous state from before the spike. But i understand why youtubers are trying to say it's a market crash cos it gets clicks.
@turbyoulance
@turbyoulance 4 ай бұрын
We are in a world wide Inflationary Economic crisis and people that have ROLEX watches are selling them and flogging them off. Rolex just bought Bucherer and have to pay a $90 Billion Euro fine so they NEED to desperately sell some watches, but no one likes their current Inventory and are not buying. ROLEX are in a crisis at the moment.
@Escapement24
@Escapement24 4 ай бұрын
That's an interesting perspective 🤔 I think your point about the difficult economic conditions is the main driver for soft demand, moreso than no one liking their current models (if that's what you meant?). In the comments I'm hearing from a lot of people who are in the US that demand is still high and inventory in short supply - which is counter to what I'm seeing and hearing here in the UK. Some people are also taking issue with the phrase "bubble burst" but say it's just a correction after a period of crazy price inflation on the secondary market, which was an anomaly. If it was an anomaly then "bubble" seems like an appropriate term and if that period is over and we're seeing prices come down rapidly then I don't see the issue with saying it burst! 😂
@MrSnazzy682
@MrSnazzy682 4 ай бұрын
Do the Rolex dealers still treat people like crap when they visit the store?
@luxchris4629
@luxchris4629 3 ай бұрын
I agree its gonna be along bearmarket, but like you conveniently drew the paralels to the stock and cryptomarket. Smart investors are in already and as soon people have money they will buy watches again. People dont learn. They jump in when its late get burned and stay away from the market when its intresting actually
@IpadAccount-pk9ts
@IpadAccount-pk9ts 4 ай бұрын
So, the price has been set back 18 months… 8 % is nothing
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