I’ve been a Rolex owner for over 11 years and always buy new from main dealers. I’ve never followed watch markets and came across this by accident. Two weeks ago I was in Geneva airport and decided to treat myself in the Rolex shop, after talking to the sales lady I discovered they had no watches for sale , she told me I needed to put my name down on a list . Like a fool I said ok let’s go , oh no she said you can’t do it here 😂 you’ll have to do it in the uk 😂 I laughed, she went bright red , I walked out . Well done Rolex I won’t buy another.

So I retired a little bit more than 2 years ago and made out a budget for my retirement grail watch. To my chagrin, every time I went back to have a look, the price went up and availability went down. Also the value of my purchasing budget went down due to inflation. So, as you stated, I bought nothing. I have learned a lot about watches in the meantime. Thank-you for this video on the economics of watch purchasing. I can almost foresee when I might be able to purchase that watch yet. Rolex has left a sour taste in my mouth, so it won't be a Rolex.

Holy fuck, somebody whom actually reads and UNDERSTANDS financial reports is talking in the context of other data points about watches. This is awesome.

Covid and the watch market shenanigans did one thing from my perspective. It killed any desire to buy a rolex in any form whatsoever. While "waiting" on the list I researched other brands. I will never buy a rolex watch at retail or on the aftermarket. They are fine watches but there are so many options out there that are more interesting. Omega is really doing some amazing things that I was overlooking and the most exciting thing I'm seeing is their use of alternative materials like ceramic for cases as well as titanium. My only reservation with omega is the size of their watches. 42-44 is just too big but I still really like what theyre doing.

Some luxury watch brands cynically raised prices substantially last year so deep discounts now simply bring their end user prices back to where they were!

The simplest solution is for the manufacturers to STOP PRODUCING MODELS THAT NOBODY WANTS.

This is now my favourite watch channel. I can always rely on you for intelligent and well thought out comments on various aspects of the watch market and watch collecting. Love what you are doing. Long may it continue to!

Finally, a channel that explains logically with no apparent commercial interest. I've subscribed.

You almost described a commodity cycle and applied the concept to watches, well done sir!

I can confirm. Various AD’s from many brands ARE offering discounts. 2024 will be the year for the watch buyer. It’s about time .

Feels like you’ve been sitting in my head and gathering data. Not that I would be able to put it together the way you did, but what you have explained is pretty much what was driving my watch purchase decisions in the last 8 months. Price/value over brand name, deliberations on whether “this is €8k watch” or maybe it’s better to get 2 or sometimes even 3 other pieces for the same money with less flashy name on a dial.

If one is in a position to buy the watch they like, then sure it’s a good time to buy. Don’t just buy smth because the price is good. It won’t make you happy. I’ve always wanted a Speedy. Over the years prices kept rising to a point I almost gave up on it. I was looking at cheaper watches trying to justify the value. It’s good I haven’t pulled a trigger on any of the alternatives. Finally I found a mint 2021 Speedy full set for a fair price. It was totally worth waiting for.

I agree newer brands, ranging from Formex to SERICA, Zelos and Traska, bringing real value for money and immediate availability, will attract both watch enthusiasts and normies who will think twice before spending North of €6 000 on entry level models. Yes, Omega, I’m looking at you.

First video I watched and I subscribed! I like the no nonsense approach to the review and calm pace.

So refreshing to hear a realistic view on this bubble! THANK YOU!

First time watcher- this was a fantastic video! Thank you for sharing, you just earned yourself a new subscriber 😁

Interesting. Probably the most thought provoking watch content I've ever seen on here. Subbed.

Ah…it’s a lovely sunny first morning of the weekend, and a new video from Mike drops in time with my coffee being ready 😊

Those who have patience for a while longer will be rewarded with even lower prices.

There is a lot of youtubers basically saying the same thing within watches, cars etc. I believe you differentiate by not just talking about the obvious basics and trends but doing your own analysis and with mixed topics it's really interesting to follow. I hope your channel will keep growing!

Have a great weekend Mike 😎! I’ll happily sit on the sidelines and see what unfolds.

Thank the time lords I found your channel Mike. Finally some intelligent and unbiased content on watch addiction. Keep it up mate 💪

Some brands basically doubled the price for their watches on catalogs. On 2019 a seamaster 300 was £3400, today is £5400. Of course, no one pay the official prices. If the demand go down, watch sellers will need to apply more discount. I bought two Seiko Prospex and both of them were on 40% discount. The heritage turtle was almost half price new from a shop in UK. What keep this industry going are the new markets.

Recently bought a . . . Muhle Glashutte - 29er Casual 'Edition Saxony' Blue Dial . . . the watch shop voluntarily provided a significant discount. Their Web site 'First Class Watches' also have a shop - which was full of shoppers at lunchtime - he said business has been good since November. The watch gains 2 seconds a day which is better than some older Rolex models and the watch is thinner than most Rolex models. So thin watches are possible at the bottom end of the luxury range. The design may appeal to people who prefer a minimalist look.

Another great video concerning the watch market! So true and so expected! Meanwhile,I just won a CW C7 Rapide on ebay for just $375 and looking for it when it comes in.....

Great to see your videos get over 100k views.. very happy for you!! Keep it up.. and I usually watch the little view ones... I want a NOMOS and my prime minister wears in IWC Portuguese

Love the video. First watch on your channel. Definitely subscribed.

In short, its a buyers market with larger stock surplus and lower prices. As you said however people are more shrewd with their spending and with good reason. Their are a lot of economic indicators that show a recession on the horizon and people are building up their saving and spending their money more wisely. A friend of mine is a building contractor and he builds a number of buildings a year. The last six months he has seen a huge uptick in people rather renovating and doing it themselves that investing in expensive construction projects. Hope you have a great weekend Mike! Stay safe and blessed my friend!

Excellent video with data supporting. It's great to see an honest assessment of the industry. I do see this falling more in 2025. Fuel prices are over $4.00gl. Groceries up 35-45%

Fantastic insight explained in an interesting and easy to digest format as always. Look forward to Saturday morning Mike!

Currently there is 30% off the majority of in-stock Omegas at my local AD in the UK, in-store only. January/February 2023 it was 20% off slow-selling DeVilles and Constellations, this year the discount is deeper and being applied to a wider range of models. The best offer I have ever seen on Omega. Very tempted by the 40mm DeVille with the Pine Green dial on a leather strap. Heavy discounting of entry-level luxury and mid-range watches too, particularly Raymond Weil and Tissot.

As a lifelong watch lover, a moment of clarity recently passed over me in an awesome wave. Wearing $8k-$12+k on your wrist seems a bit tacky to me. So I sold off all my high end stuff, kept a bb58, 2254, and a grand seiko. I've never been happier. Although I would add Vacherons 1921 and Everest DT if I hit the powerball. Thank you.

Bought a zenith defy skeleton in January 2024. I told AD I’ll buy it but you need to give me a material discount or I’ll get it on chrono 24 (I was polite about it). AD received it the day before and had been waiting 3 months to receive it (supply is low). AD came back (after calling owner) and offered 15% off. I figured that was fair, deal done.

Brands and AD had ignored the actual watch buyers of watches focusing their marketing resources and communication to IG influencers, snoobing buyers, now the tide has turned.

My Omega AD salesman stated he suspected a decrease in sales during and after Covid due to inflation. Inflation hasn’t stopped. People are spending less. People are nervous. The last thing on most people’s mind is luxury items such as wristwatches.

Excellent!! Watching from Dublin airport.

It's great hearing people are getting discounts. Is there any way we could post model, % discounts, location, dealer in a dedicated section? Mike might be interested in having this 'real time' data? It would be also help those subscribers looking to purchase soon, rather than having to wait for 'offical reports'.

Buy fear. Sell greed. Wouldn't touch Rolex or luxury watches with a 10ft pole. You want to buy during an 08-09 type scenario. It will happen. Until then. Buy a couple nice affordable watches, seiko, tissot, ect... or maybe a longines. And realize a watch doesn't affect your life. Park your money in CD"s and Money markets while the rates are good. it's all i've done for the past couple years.

This is my new favourite watch channel. Fascinating insights. Are there any videos where Mike talks about his background?

I was in a town centre, and I told a AD you will now see watches like the Longines Zulu Time return to its original release price, “ we won’t sell them for that” well you won’t sell them then. Brands like tutor are going to be absolutely hammered in the United Kingdom. They’ve gone way over the top with Price increases and whilst you will have some sales they will only be around 40% of the sales you were getting in 2022. Brands like formex Christopher Ward Baltic and monta are going to clean up all of that money that brands like Omega and Longines will lose.

Always insightful...thank you! I just bought my first real luxury watches over the last month...Tudor BB GMT w Opaline dial and the Grand Seiko Yuka Momiji....both beautiful watches that I really enjoy wearing...on the list for my first Rolex steel sport watch, but will need to wait. There is only one Rolex AD here in Edmonton, Alberta Canada.

Manufacturers have been moving prices up as they want their products to be seen as "luxury". Omega has completely messed their market with their rises as you mentioned with the Speedie. I have been considering one but the price hikes are too much, so I'll buy a pre owned.

I've always been a used watch buyer, and the one VC I've been keeping an eye on has been dropping in price, slowly but surely. Six months ago people were getting $18-20k. I've seen them sell for between $13,500 and $16k in the past couple of months, but even the one at $16k has been sitting there for a months now (the listing first appeared in September, with a price of $20.5k). Luckily, I wasn't ready to buy yet, and at this point, I'm going to hold off for now. There have been other deals that I snapped up. A used $6k msrp watch for under $2k, etc. I tend to buy brands that are not exactly mainstream, and if I see a great deal, I go for it.

That’s the only way I am able to have this hobby. The retail prices are just stupid

Not as many cuts this week. That’s ok because the focus was on the script. You covered a big topic today. You hit most of the perspectives. I was the wanted to buy couldn’t find what I wanted so gave up. Prices are still higher from the holidays. They have to come down.

Hi Mike, All the high street brands in the UK apart from Rolex and Hot Tudor have been discountable for years/ever. Tudors are now all fully discountable. Precious metal Rolex's have also always been more or less available, and I do not think Hot Steel ones ever will be personally.

Very good. So reassured that in the Deloitte 'purchase motivation' table you showed, the UK was THE ONLY country in the world where buyers picked 'design' as their preeminent motivator. Not entirely sure its true, but I'm glad British people at least believe that that's what they're doing (as they relentlessly buy Rolex and Tudor!).

I disagree. Don't buy Rolex now. Don't bail out the AD'S that have been screwing the average watch collector for years with their "pay to play" scheme. Let them sink. If they want to sell Rolex let them call their preferred clients and sell it to them.

Fantastic video. Love hearing about the reality of the watch world and not just having another watch pushed on us. Thanks for sharing just great information.

Great insight on how watch economy works, the same is observed across on corporate high jewelry. Brands won’t learn as they are mainly focused on the current market trends, when they can’t sale they dump it on employee sales or grey market, got a couple this way. Personally, I don’t think I’ll ever pay retail, Rolex wait lists are ridiculous. There are many options, I tend value the specs over brand status, still think I did well choosing an Omega and an IWC, although the omega is far superior and costed less, I use it almost everyday, it’s a tool and I feel naked without it. Watches are very personal objects, is a very personal object, is pointless having multiple.

I too am tired of the waitlist/artificial scarcity/over-msrp-bs. Not going to buy anything this year unless I see something I truly adore and at a great price .

Refreshing to listen to opinion, based on research for a change...very informative.

Got the call for my Rolex GMT root beer in Dec after waiting 2 years. My ultra favourite though is the VC dual time in blue or black, the black is now going below retail on the grey market with the blue close behind, but only abroad, the UK Market is still dearer.

Thought provoking, the cycle of consumerism is interesting. I have never heard of the term "bullwhip" in business before nor the explanation. Our watch and secondary market is depressed in Canada. I have had an Ebell 1911 dress watch and a Seiko SLA065J1 divers on consignment for a few months with no interest either. With the taxes and economics as they currently are things will pick up a year or two after the US. I will try again then. So I have regained then and wear them for enjoyment. That eliminated sellers remorse. Thank you for your time and another excellent vid on the market. Regards, Chris

Another great video. Analysis of the industry and brand behaviour is interesting and certainly better than sponsored content hype. Great presentation, too 👍

Great analysis, thank you.

I am definitely being drive towards buying smaller brands. Here is a good example: Omega AT Good Planet Titanium. Pre covid 5k cad. Post covid 8k cad. You know what has the same specs, and even beats it out in some area (like thickness)? Christopher Ward Twelve ti. 2.5k Cad and ill take the mrs on a vacation with the savings.

For a lot of brands the question is how to they avoid the public perception of avoid cutting prices while at the same time cutting prices. My prediction is we will see a number of new models released quickly, that come in at the a lower price point by being 95% of the watch for 80% of the money rather than discounting the current watch. Example, Omega and its new Apollo Eight Dark Side of the Moon. They have recently released a new model at a higher price point. Replace the hand crafted rocket with a conventional hand, replace the yellow with a different colour, and cut at the price point of the old model. At the same time you continue to produce the limited edition (the one with the hand crafted rocket) in smaller numbers, probably extending the estimated shelf life of the model. R&D on new models will be cut massively. You now have a new model for very little R&D spend that meats the market expectations in turns of pricing, and you continue to get a return on your investment. Profits will be less than you hoped but you avoid the public perception that the model has failed. If you are Omega, you look at your massive catalogue and over time trim variations that are not selling. Expect to see a not of headcount cuts this year,

A couple of ADs claimed the Speedmaster Racing (44.25 white dial) was hard to get. Nevertheless I was given between 16 and 17% off retail at my AD, and got it within three weeks. It is a watch I fell in love with, and saved a couple of years to get. Every time I look at it, I am happy. I was seeing 20% off on grey market. Thanks for this video. Very informative.

It s a watch- a wear one that my grandad bought in 1934. I like the fact that it marked the events in his life, my dads, and now mine. It does nt have any complications, chache - it has history. :)

Great points, subsribed!

the snoopy is such a beautiful watch

Omega S300 in green was offered to me with 20% discount. Actually the only watches I paid full list in the last three years were Rolex and desired Tudor. All others with 10 to 40% below r.r.p.

A thought provoking video, with an interesting economic perspective. I really enjoyed it. 👍

Thank you for the Saturday drop - none of my other watch channels released anything. The WoS warning was solely due to Rolex not sending them the precious metal sport watches; they still sold every Rolex steel sport watch; but top and bottom lines didn’t meet previous expectations. Maybe the Bucherer scenarios you envisioned are starting to happen? IMHO LEs turn people away. After a while frustration sets in. US economy isn’t doing great - pesky inflation and a lot of layoffs; but the tech segment of the stock market is; if BTC explodes I think luxury watches will get a boost. And I’m still a little skeptical of the Rolex ‘getting the call’ info. I’m guessing these are smaller markets - or the UK where crime is out of control.

Subscribed. Great content.

Great video and good analysis! My strategy? Screw Rolex, and purchase other brands on the secondary market later this year. I can wait longer, if needed. But priorities will shift, even more, in the US, to other needs,

What a refreshing sane analysis. With CHF stabilising against the US$ should slow price increases as there is no inflation in Switzerland

so a video idea would be up and coming watchmakers that people are excited about. Who they are, what brand did that start off under; why people are excited about them, what they're doing now.

Totally agree

Innovation is key for riding the waves of disruption, happy to see the level of depth covered in this video! Great job!!

Went to an AD and tried on new Seamaster. Too thick and large compared to my 2010 model. I asked if the did mid size, discontinued. Agree Omega need to trim size

There should be a movement to voluntarily stop buying JLC. The 40% increase from JLC was ridiculous. The consumer needs to make a statement.😊

Great analysis! Greetings from Belgium Europe.

I feel like I’m having the discussion I want but never get to have with a friend at the pub

Pretty damn interesting! I have to watch it again to make my comment… 👍🏻

Outstanding analysis, delivered with a much appreciated absence of hyperbole. Thank you for sharing your insights.

Very interesting video. Thanks.

In the near future I am going to purchase the planet ocean 39.5 and would like to buy it from my omega boutique (watches of Switzerland) i haven't asked for a discount yet but as i can get at least 15% elsewhere I'm hoping they might match it.

Beautifully presented as usual, your a great orator Mike. They definitely got greedy, even Rolex's flagship store on Bond Street London's completion has been put back to 2025, I mean what the hell are they going to fill 3 floors with 🤣 The long term watch collectors, and watch enthusiasts have been fed up with situation of the last 2 years. I've been waiting for Rolex DJ, fluted bezel with blue motif dial, they offered me a black one 6 months ago, which I turned down, and I'm now fed up waiting, the dream has faded and I no longer want one, so will turn that down too, and look at watches I can get when I want them.

I think that they will keep the current prices it is very difficult for brands to lower their prices. The market is controlled from greedy companies unfortunately selling products that have zero practical functionality and offer only emotional value.

Great analysis. I was wondering if I could go to a grey market online store for my Speedmaster in hesalite. I had no no problems so far with mid tier options up to 1,600 USD. I know I will be probably voiding the original warranty, but this doesn't look so bad if they address the possible problem I might face or the product being something that is super reliable. The catch is the price. It's really amazing compared to brick and mortar stores. Anyways, I keep having nice coffee while I watch your excellent videos.

So, supply-side economics in the watch biz is dead? What level of brand cache allows for that model to work? Thinking back to your recent video on manufactured exclusivity.

good thoughts!

It's good to see we're the outlier ( on the most important factor )- we must be buying all those Hublots for their design.

we need more fact-based and insightful analysis such as this. This is good stuff.

After watching this video I instantly subscribed because the topics of discussion were way more mature than any other watch channel! Brilliant video, keep it up 👏

I just bought Longines hydroconquest GMT from AD. £2650. Brand new. 15% discount. Omega AD and Breitling AD offered me 15% off some new models o in store

Excellent as always, and great explanation of the bullwhip effect.

Great video ! Really enjoyed this one

I bought a few second hand Seiko’ and a CW well below full price. The watches where months old. This was over the last 18 months. I already see Rolex dropping too. I am waiting on a Grand Seiko snowflake come down more on the second hand market. It’s nearly there, on the price that’s Wright for me. It’s a buyers market again. That’s for everything too.

I've wanted a Bluesy for a while, but honestly if I do get the call.... I don't know, I may do the sacrilege move and pass on the watch... or just delay it until another big life event. We'll see.

I'm noticing many private sellers ditching good watches at giveaway prices. I'm not talking Rolex flippers here caught with their pants down. I suspect most bought intending to keep but need some cash now. My family responsibilities are complete (Bank of Dad closed some years ago). Many young parents with families to raise and mortgages, taxes, utilities and food to pay for must be feeling a hard squeeze. I'm looking to purchase several long wanted watches during this year but I feel no pressure to act quickly. At best the World economy is in the bottom of a shallow valley and things will not improve soon. Worst case could make the present situation seem like Nirvana.

You are absolutely outstanding!!!

Great video, again.

Maybe it’s a location thing , but ADs always give discounts . It may not bet 20 to 30 plus like years ago but 10 to 15 is quite common at least in the USA

This is my first exposure to this channel, and what an education in the watch industry it is.

Fantastic analysis

...very informative.....pay attention Ronald Thorpe !!

Makes sense, interesting content as always. However, also, as usual , there is a random sweeping statement about a brand that fundamentally doesn’t make sense. Why would a Journe customer “gravitate to Rolex” away from Journe? This is like saying a Ferrari owner gravitates to BMW!.. Nonetheless, thanks for trying to be more thoughtful than other watch channels.