Mercedes are so chill to the point James and Shov are debating about ducks having teeth for a considerable amount of time, that's confidence.

If possible it would be interesting to see a video on the difference between this years new tyre compound and last years?

the real worry for them is whether they would fight 100 duck sized horses or a horse sized duck?

I was just browsing through forum posts and articles from the 2019 season and was stunned to find the similarities between what happened then and what happened now.

I still think they'll have the championship wrapped up by Monaco

I think people forget the past too easily. When you stop developing last years car mid season, you have half a season to develop several iterations of this years car. Merc showed up to test with one that didn’t pan out. Next iteration at the first race maybe the nail in the Red Bull coffin?

Still, the race for P3 and P4 in the constructor's is looking delicious

I remember remembering lewis said “(insert other team name) have a great car this year, so it might hard for us” a few years back

If there's any team that can turn it around in the shortest amount of time, it's Mercedes.

Edd Straw at his best... easily the best for this sort of content.

With the lack of testing this yr, sandbagging does no team any good.

*Rich people play the money game to win.* *Poor people play the money game to not lose.* *The goal of truly rich people is to have massive wealth and for many of them,* *it's to help a lot of people.*

The low rake LWB concept relies on maximising the floor to create a larger surface area of ground effect like downforce across the underbody. Having a larger surface area makes for a less volatile airflow and better influenced airflow is better balance. If you remove this however, you have to find other ways to create a similar effect or relinquish the advantage. I believe this is the challenge faced by Mercedes now. High rake isn't so much reliant on an agressive floor. It's shape naturally creates more downforce than low rake. It's only once you make more proactive use of the floor the scales tip.

Mercedes is doing a great job of playing rope-a-dope.

I think the real difference this year will be the cost cap. Merc won't be able to just out spend their rivals to the same degree. If they don't start off strong then it will be more difficult to develop the car quickly given their wind tunnel handicap. I wont' bet against them but I think a .7 sec advantage this year is unlikely.

I’m too early for funny comments so I’ll say this channel is great

honestly, the only real risk for mercedes this year is red bull having a very good #2 driver to screw up their strategy. other than that, same borefest with the P1 non-fights

*DON'T. GIVE. ME. HOPE.*

Going into testing they will have had a good idea of two or three variants they can run with that maximise downforce, straight line speed etc etc. In all likelihood they have a safe bet design which is easily implementable aerodynamically. I’m willing to bet they tested a high risk outlier to see how the drivers could handle it, knowing they have a design which replicates handling from last year. The combination of aero with new tyres is the goal. If you have excellent CFD data which they undoubtedly do, your modelling and simulation becomes that much more accurate. Mercedez will be fine.

I hope this is going to be a 2005 type year

Regardless of the actual realities behind their poor testing, I'm as hopeful as I've ever been in the current engine regs for a decent fight between top teams. Red Bull looking hot with two great drivers and an outstanding car, Mercedes might be caught out. I can only dream and wait for the season to begin.

The official definition of 'Sandbagging' is: The paying of youtube channels to perpetuate the myth that you are not sandbagging. 😁

The race>autosport

Last time I was this early, Merc just took over Brawn

Edd Straw always has detailed analysis, I really appreciate the effort he puts in

Mercedes: "Bahrain. We just can't get enough of it" *Completes fewest laps in testing* No Mercedes. You really couldn't.

Despite all of it they just remain so calm its evn crazy

I think the constructors championship may come down to Bottas and Perez. If RB and Merc are as close as we all hope, 2nd driver (using the term loosely) is going to be a huge factor. Trying not to run away with it... but man I am excited for the season right here right now

The best analysis I have seen so far ..

According to what toto said they found what they lacked in testing on their film day at bahrain... So all is good so far plus the updates they'll no doubt put on before the first race

Considering how well we know mercedes to adapt and upgrade their car against their weaknesses, i would be surprised if they dont have a new aero package by race 2. Also, mercedes hasn't told us where they used their tokens, only saying that it would "be revealed in good time". Considering nobody has yet seen a difference in the car that would require tokens, we might just have to assume mercedes will bring a big upgrade sometime soon.

Testing like preseason in American Football....It doesn't mean a damn thing! The battle might be fierce this year! I'm still pulling for LH44....

This same guy also claimed Ferrari had the best car in 2019!

2019 testing Mercedes claimed they where half a second behind Ferrari. First race of the season they are .7 ahead. You don't find 1.2 seconds in a few weeks in F1. F1 isn't easy. They where sandbagging then, and they are quite likely to be sandbagging once again. And everyone keeps falling for the same trap, over and over again...

Let’s be honest here… There is no scenario this year where Mercedes does not win both championships with five races to spare

I believe what we saw in testing was true. Mercedes have a top 2 car that has a slightly unstable rear end. Maybe RB showed their hand a little more than Merc in the excitement or Merc just ran a little more fuel to disguise their performance a little. Overall, going into the first race it will be 50/50 between Merc and RB. A little further into the season, depends on their development curve I believe.

To be honest it’s the exactly similar for Ferrari in 2005 where a radical few changes in the regulations which caused them so much difficulty so I see a high chance for Red Bull finally putting some wins. Yes Mercedes might be scaring us but with the development and lessons learnt by Red Bull for so long they should win this year but I’m routing for Mercedes comeback

I think if any other team had made such a pigs ear out of testing we'd be pretty much dismissing them as serious contenders, so it shows the track record of Mercedes' consistency and effectiveness (and let's be honest general domination) that we're still only saying "Maybe Red Bull can make a fight of it" rather than "How far back will Mercedes fall?"

Although I do lean towards the idea that we may see a repeat of 2019, Red Bull as a team is less likely to rest on their laurels as Ferrari sometimes do. I feel it is a much more cohesive team.

Unpopular opinion, LH44 spin was on purpose so they could lift the car and other teams would take photos and waste time analysing the fake floor designs...😂😂😉

You completely forgot to mention anything about how much less cfd merc can do this year which will slow them down a fair bit during development

Fool me once Mercedes shame on you fool me five times!!! Shame on me!!! 😭😭

It's been almost the same story for 6 years, ah Mercedes looks a bit weaker this year.. common guys.. Maybe Mercedes has sufficient data in wind tunnels and simulation to predict how the car will behave and simply don't need testing days, they brought us some sand bags this time also. Maybe FIA asked them too in order to try to keep things somewhat interesting still. I believe Red Bull will be closer this year but probably Mercedes will win, hope not but it's what I believe. 2022 things might change, let's hope.

No Niki Lauda - no aerodynamics

We hope rb is better than ferrari at giving merc a title challenge. They are stronger operationally and they dont have a continious struggle for power. But merc will probs get very strong by r1

Because of wind tunnel and CFD restrictions as well as the cost cap I still have hope for a RB vs Merc battle for the title going to the very end

Toto could come out and tell us the absolute maximum of their car in every aspect and prove with data that they're slower than Red Bull. And as a Data/BI Analyst by trade, I will STILL ignore that and bet on Mercedes until they solidly are behind in the first race. All the videos in the world trying to show how this is different just won't be enough. After 7 years of mind numbing dominance, nothing can prove to me their speed except Quali and in-race performance in a few weeks. Remember, they stopped development last year half way through to focus on this year and 2022 and still cruised home...

I never saw any occasion Mercedes show its true pace for last 3 years. That is theit way of having fun i guess. At the end they wrote the rules of V6 era. That is their way of commercial just like Lewis: "my tires gone" just 3 laps before fastest lap.

As a podcast, we need to talk about this on our channel. These videos are amazing. I think that Mercedes’ awful testing is different this time, I’ve got a feeling that they won’t dominate again.

When there brakes failed in 2014? Last I can remember them struggling honestly

The major fact that these two years share is that people are still interpreting test results without any data and predicting the entire season based on nothing but speculation but making it sound as if it were underlined by facts which it simply isn´t. When will fans, journalists and all you self-proclaimed "experts" finally realize that as long as you can´t see the telemetry of the cars, you won´t be able to conclude anything out of testing?

The first race will tell. It's not just 2019 that Mercedes were off the pace in testing, though 2019 is an example of the significant improvements that they can make in a short time frame. As Mercedes enter the season it is still their championship to lose.

2:18 "You hang up.... No YOU hang up!!! Silly."

Thank you for some clear-eyed analysis.

Your video is skipping frames on Mercedes' footage - looks like they're rendering at 25 FPS and you're rendering at 24. (Looks like it's just skipping that one per second.) I'm not a video editor myself so I don't know what kind of simple solutions the editing suites offer other than just rendering at 25, but I thought I should bring it to your attention

Let us know how you think Mercedes will do in 2021: Ferrari 2005!

Mercedes is massively sandbagging. They simply don't run qualifying simulations on a fully optimized car. Instead, they test individual components on certain sectors of the track with a 'control group' car. That's why they always stay below the top time in the time sheets. But don't bee fooled, they'll definitely be on top of the time sheets come race day.

With any luck, we get something like 2009, and Red Bull pulls out a big early lead before Mercedes (inevitably) gets their package perfected after a few races and begins blowing everyone else away. But if the Merc is struggling to start the season, it won't be for long.

I would love if the subject transitions were also read aloud. When you listen to these videos, it can be very confusing moving from subject to subject without any idea what the transition is, especially when the topic is phrased like a question. It would also be a nice change for viewers with limited eyesight. Thanks!

They'll use the tokens and do something like McLaren have with the straiks.

Typical jurno logic: 2020 - Verstappen spins a few times during testing immediately means Red Bull has an unstable rear and a snappy car. 2021 - Hamilton spins a few times during testing immediately means Mercedes has an unstable rear and a snappy car. Like what the hell? Did I miss all the spins and big oversteer moments Albon and Verstappen had last year? I don't remember them strugling too much with the rear. Don't really remember them talking about things like that either. The only people who started those conversations was always the jurnos... Must be just me though... Watched the best onboard laps from Bottas and Hamilton from the test. Where is that unstable rear? Bottass lap is more like understeer all over the place, Hamilton's lap was also pretty clean, bit more oversteer but that could be setup preference. And it is pretty easy to tell the engine was turned way down for both, lazy accelerations and gear shifts out of corners everywhere, especially noticable on the lap Bottas did. Top end sounded weak too. There you go: 1.5-2 sec. Another thing is the relation between Mercedes and very low grip scenarios. Remember Portimao, Turkey? They had no pace until the track started to evolve. Going back even more, they strugled in Monaco and Singapore pretty frequently, both unused street circuits with pretty low grip. Could also be the longer wheelbase there, but still. Bunch of sand in Bahrain, low grip again. That looks more like a pattern to me, but that is still pure speculation. I just don't get wtf these people keep talking about, a few spins in TESTING doesn't mean sh*t. They are there to find the limits of the car, understand how it behaves with different setups. Testing edge case setup choices too... I would give those test runs to Hamilton every time, he has superior car control, period. Hes just much less likely to put it into the wall. Too much over the limit, a few harmless spins? Who cares... Happens with everyone. How do you know it is not just that? We will find out in the first race who has the edge, I am pretty sure nothing changed from last year, at least not on the front... I would be happy to see others wiping the floor with Merc, but I am very sceptical about that.

What woe? Toto just playing. His bonus for 2021 is linked to how much media is covering Mercedes ineptitude during testing.

Cant wait to come back to clown this video after Merc 1-2 Quali

Never count them out! They’ve proven many times just how that is!

Is this the year the angle of rake the red bull has used for years becomes the way forward due to these aero reductions for 2021 ?

Mercedes could do 10 laps in the tests and blow 5 engines and people would still say "SaNnDBaG!!" I really think Red Bull will be stronger at the start of the season, because this time Mercedes had real problems in the tests. I could very well be wrong, but I really do feel like it. And I have never thought that before

These floor changes are being presented as benefiting the tyres, but they were specifically designed to reign in Merc so I don't think it's a given. Merc won't drop off like Ferrari but RB will be a lot closer for sure.

is there an video to explaine the , fences? or the structures of what kinda looks like an old tv antenna hanging off parts of the cars in testing . im guessing mabe a tool to check aero/velocitys of an area on parts of the cars bodywork? if not id live to know more about ...

They'll dominate again

If you keep digging, you can make anything more complicated than it actually is. They keep saying " this season is different, we have a huge challenge this time, we are behind, they are faster.... " and such crap each and every season. Even if they did not show up at the testing, most of us would still debate that they will wrap it up before mid season break. They will have the better car, ham will have another walk in the park, easy season and you guys will bash about what an incredible driver ham is.. I will be watching the youngsters and hoping for wins and podiums for lando, gasly, seinz and so on..

I watched the footage, and the problem more looks like cold tires than anything else. Why they are cold, I couldn't tell you, but, if Mercedes keep them warm (which I might add is harder now), then they'll continue to dominate. If not, I still think we'll only have one team dominate, whoever that will be. That's just how current F1 works at the moment.

In 2019, the media was touting Ferrari as the best car through all the free practice sessions of the Australian Grand prix, even though the Merc was putting better lap times. I remember everyone gushing over how supple the Ferrari looked and how ragged the Merc looked through those practice sessions. Then on qualifying day, Merc is 0.7sec clear of Ferrari and everyone realizes that Merc was fast. I can't help but seeing a bit of deja vu here. Merc did not stop developing the 2020 car halfway through the season just to have a vacation, they focused on this year's car and I would find it very strange that they somehow messed it up. Although the nature of the regulations with the reduced floor area might favor Redbull and the other high rake cars. We shall see, but if it's a Merc 1-2 on Saturday, I won't be surprised at all.

Not not sandbagging, also not sandbagging. Got it, sure

Fantastic analysis.

Keep up the great content

Its 2021 and people are still doubling down on ferrari being faster in 2019..... jesus

"Ferrari was easily battering us" My, I wonder what FUELED such a development...

Don't give me hope!!!!!

I wonder how the Limited funding is effecting their development options? They probably have had to downsize their staff and contracting options ...

Mercedes/ Toto : pretending they are concerned to be the underdogs since 2016. Not being right even once. How often will you believe them?

If the situation mercedes is in happened to any other team, they'd struggle for the first few races, but since it's mercedes, I'd bank that mercedes will have a good idea what's wrong

i believe that if Vettel grows a Mansell he will win the championship, if you have a Mansell you have it all, even aero

It's the dawn of a new era, Max and Red bull. End of mercedes dominance. Thank you Ed

They are missing Andy Cowell... and it shows... Mercs in the mire this year.... Come on Lando

Great video. Good as they truly are, think they're due a loss sooner or later.. Too much focusing on the wrong things. Black cabs and Sir Lewis "Kneel before me."

What it shares? Both events precede periods of absolute dominance

Absolute unit

Amazing detailed explanation

0:01 I'm struggling with my girlfriends 'rear-end stability'...

I think that mercedes will be the fastest overall, but redbull will definitely have closed the gap at least a little bit. Hopefully perez can put some extra pressure on the mercs too.

I suspect sandbagging ... Mercedes is a team you never dismiss because they had a bad day at the office. They are relentless and ruthlessly efficient in making improvements on their weak spots. Red Bull should not become too confident from a test.

As good as the RB16B looked in Bahrein, it still can have serious issues in other circumstances. A smooth test can also be very deceiving. And when it comes to manpower and facilities to swiftly overcome issues, Mercedes will always have the upper hand.

I didn't think this video was gon be a history lesson

I just hope that Merc start off slow and have to develop throughout the year. I just can't see Red Bull outdevelop Merc if the Mercedes is 5-6 tenths faster come qualifying. Also race pace is important, but even when max were only about 2 tenths slower on race sims, merc still won. No real scrap.

what can we do to get ESPN to get Edd behind the microphone instead of Hobbs? i get tired real fast of him explaining why the british teams and drivers aren't doing better.

Mercedes were in a comfy position to pause innovative development of their 2020 car, and focus efforts on this the second half of last year, much much before other teams. So I doubt they have a REAL problem. It's just Sandbagging

Mercedes could have mastered the art of prank

James Allison seems a little too high on his horse.

1 sec a lap or 2 a lap advantage is the question

Now returning where it turns out...Mercedes wasnt going to dominate this time