Why is it “There’s a 10% chance of rain” instead of “It will be sunny tomorrow”? (Tim Palmer)

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Жыл бұрын

The Michael Shermer Show # 302
Why does your weather app say “There’s a 10% chance of rain” instead of “It will be sunny tomorrow”? In large part this is due to the insight of Tim Palmer, who made uncertainty essential to the study of weather and climate. Now he wants to apply it to how we study everything else.
In The Primacy of Doubt, Palmer argues that embracing the mathematics of uncertainty is vital to understanding ourselves and the universe around us. Whether we want to predict climate change or market crashes, understand how the brain is able to outpace supercomputers, or find a theory that links quantum and cosmological physics, Palmer shows how his vision of mathematical uncertainty provides new insights into some of the deepest problems in science. The result is a revolution-one that shows that power begins by embracing what we don’t know.
Shermer and Palmer discuss: doubt and skepticism • when doubt slides into denial • uncertainty as a measurement problem vs. inherent in natural systems • contingency and necessity, randomness and law • the butterfly effect • the geometry of chaos • quantum uncertainty • weather forecasting • climate change • pandemics • economic recessions • human decision making and creativity • free will • consciousness, and God.
Tim Palmer, FRS (Fellow of the Royal Society), CBE (Commander of the Order of the British Empire) is a Royal Society Research Professor in the department of physics at the University of Oxford. He pioneered the development of operational ensemble weather and climate forecasting, and in 2007, he was formally recognized as having contributed to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s Nobel Peace Prize. Palmer is a Commander of the British Empire, a fellow of the Royal Society and the National Academy of Sciences, and a recipient of the Institute of Physics’ Dirac Gold Medal. He lives near Oxford, UK.
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Пікірлер: 77

@jeffersonianideal Жыл бұрын

1:11:36 The reason for the earth receiving fewer hours of sunlight is because during the 6-month period Dr. Palmer made reference to, the earth begins to incrementally "turn its back" to the sun.

@Doutsoldome Жыл бұрын

Physicist, here. This was a fascinating conversation. Thank you.

@JCResDoc94 Жыл бұрын

optometrist here: nice glasses! need a 2nd pair? (DMs open) _JC

@jeffersonianideal Жыл бұрын

1:42:35 The juncture into the woo-woo zone.

@restorationofidentity Жыл бұрын

I totally agree he went full on religous mode around 1:42. That just makes me discredit him now. Can't trust a scientist who can't leave religion before he puts on his lab coat. 🤔

@jeffersonianideal Жыл бұрын

@@restorationofidentity Agreed. Any faith in a supernatural dimension or mysticism is a belief founded on bad evidence. However, I am not going to throw out the natural selection baby with the holy bathwater. Tim Palmer's doublethink is his own cross to bear.

@JCResDoc94 Жыл бұрын

*1:53:00** we dont know what "prepared" is, my dear shermer, that is the point. no1 knows the path to success* (tho i actually largely agree w this point. but i kida agree w me too? kinda both.) _JC

@frun Жыл бұрын

I think the world is classical, but with the fractal field in euclidean space. It follows from the hydrodynamic quantum analogs. There is also a need to calculate the speed of light. The analogy goes like this: speed of sound = speed of light, many body system(condensate) = empty space(vacuum), collective excitations (sound) = matter.

@jeffersonianideal Жыл бұрын

1:23:21 There is, at least, one other alternate viewpoint to hold. A person can be a climate change non-alarmist.

@veganmatry Жыл бұрын

That's still denial though.

@jeffersonianideal Жыл бұрын

@@veganmatry Denial of what? Irrationality?

@veganmatry Жыл бұрын

@@jeffersonianideal Reality. Climate change is already catastrophic.

@jeffersonianideal Жыл бұрын

@@veganmatry How do you know this?

@veganmatry Жыл бұрын

@@jeffersonianideal Because that's what virtually everyone with relevant expertise has been saying for years!

@JCResDoc94 Жыл бұрын

1:01:00 chaos theory, butterfly fx & threshold fx. _JC

@JCResDoc94 Жыл бұрын

*1:25:00** an entirely adequate climate change bullet point* (one of his primary specialties) _JC

@JCResDoc94 Жыл бұрын

35:40 thats why you always red team. some interesting thoughts. _JC

@bon12121 Жыл бұрын

On doubt. There was a paper published recently to suggest that the QED theory could problematic. There were various comments by Pauli, Feynman himself, and Dyson relating to this problem. It relates primarily to a sum which was assumed finite but actually infinite. Sorry I cant comment further.

@JCResDoc94 Жыл бұрын

*1:55:30** unless the orthodoxy is, in an important way, entirely wrong, shermer,* & you are going to walk down collecting the same blocks, by knowing what has already been done - plus ... its already been done. _JC

@naftalibendavid Жыл бұрын

Shout out to Dr. Raine!

@JCResDoc94 Жыл бұрын

*38:00** also, pick an instrument pal, who are you trying to impress?* im sorry, i should unplug the keyboard sometimes, i know that. i just always need more input. evn dbl speed (& i dont believe in ADHD, so.) besides, thr are less acceptable things i could be doing w my hands while listening to lectures. Zoom taught us that. _JC

@JCResDoc94 Жыл бұрын

1:14:00 *cloud forcing* & why it matrs we arent modelling them (or anything) very well. nor even pretending to do anything that would matr even taking everything as read (& some catastrophizing. like wo healthcare or real dollar adjusted minimum wage any of the bs matrs in the slightest) _JC

@TracyPicabia Жыл бұрын

Haven't read the book but I'm assuming hes a lot better at writing than speaking, in much the same way as a fractal image illustrates chaos theory a lot better than a Dr Gluck twats on about it on a podcast 🤔

@naftalibendavid Жыл бұрын

I usually don’t care about the questions related to how authors think they arrived where they are now, but this origin story has an intriguing optimism.

@jerbib9598 Жыл бұрын

Why is it “There’s a 10% chance of rain” instead of “It will be sunny tomorrow”? (Tim Palmer) For very good reasons. Just ask a meteorologist.

@ratonsito2836 Жыл бұрын

Super interesting talk!!

$@fractalnomics$

@fractalnomics Жыл бұрын

32:21 1:09:58 climate models chaos claim

@JCResDoc94 Жыл бұрын

*28:00** quantum neurons run on energy derivatives from sub micron blackholes, that exists for fraction of a milisecond,* i solved it when i fixed einstein. ill email you. _JC

@JCResDoc94 Жыл бұрын

1:21:00 complete misunderstanding of covid models & the data collection that went into them. (not that he couldnt sort it out, he just hasnt bothered. like most ppl w these skill sets. which is a little unforgivable? thr is a bit of a responsibility to use the skills you have before cmting? & err towards helping people & protecting rights & stopping profiteering? maybe?) _JC

@TracyPicabia Жыл бұрын

'Wondrium' has to be the dumbest name for anything in the history of the names for everything

@barryc6231 Жыл бұрын

This is what you learned from listening for two hours to a brilliant scientist?

@wasATsea Жыл бұрын

@@barryc6231 just one of many wondrous verbal disappointments

@wasATsea Жыл бұрын

@@michaelfried3123 I don't doubt it. All the more reason to give it a less annoying title. There are more annoying words, like magical and ... no that's the only one

@DanHowardMtl Жыл бұрын

No! "Shermer" is! :)

@homewall744 Жыл бұрын

Guess heads or tails. I use a random generator to determine this and then I choose this. Is that pre-determined by physics (ha ha ha), or did I decide using my will to base my choice on a random generator?

@michaelfried3123 Жыл бұрын

What a wonderfully brilliant guest, so glad he didn't stay with Hawking and chose his different path.

@MrBallynally2 Жыл бұрын

Around 1.15 he tries very hard to bridge uncertainty with probability but then gets into trouble simplifying the complex variables to be able to make sense of predictability. That is exactly the wall every climate expert and/or physicist runs into. The issue for me is that the type of proposed climate measures will likely lead to massive deaths in the forseeable future as opposed to the ones we might save 50 years from now. It would be very ironic if we look back in 20 years with much better data at the insane way this panic virus spreadvto all institutions. There wilk be history lessons tracking it back to the late 60s, Gaia theory, population bomb, the UN, 1992 and especially 2014 where the virus gained momentum and eventually lead to the break down of civilization..

@MrBallynally2 Жыл бұрын

And he seems to think you will be able to solve the climate predictability with more powerful computers. That is another fallacy as you have to limit the parameters going into the modeling to make any sense. And we now know that better modelling does not lead to better predictions. On the contrary. He is on thin ice..

@homewall744 Жыл бұрын

It's not government's job to guess your life's outcome by applying their force.

@dcouric Жыл бұрын

Primacy of Einstein: "God does not play dice with the universe."

@karagi101 Жыл бұрын

Proven wrong.

@MrCorrupaco Жыл бұрын

The god of Einstein was the Spinoza's god.

@ebert8756 Жыл бұрын

He said this while he was refuting modern atomic orbital theory which is now accepted

@homewall744 Жыл бұрын

If you carry an umbrella and it doesn't rain, it was your choice and likely not a bother since you chose to do it. But when government MANDATES everyone must get an umbrella, must carry it with them at all times to protect yourself from the rain and to help protect others from the rain, you are WRONG. Your decision was WRONG, whether it rains or not.

@jeffersonianideal Жыл бұрын

Expressed like a true libertarian.

@chemquests Жыл бұрын

2 hours of incredible intellectual discussion and you find a way to make it partisan If the scientific evidence underpinning a policy determines the correct behavior, then choosing to oppose it is objectively wrong.

@jeffersonianideal Жыл бұрын

@@chemquests "you find a way to make it partisan" Government's monopolistic use of force is not discriminatory. It hampers the civil liberties and personal choices of every sovereign individual.

@chemquests Жыл бұрын

@@jeffersonianideal individuals are not sovereign, particularly relative to public health or scientific truth

@jeffersonianideal Жыл бұрын

@@chemquests Really? Who owns you?

@MrBallynally2 Жыл бұрын

More discussion about the book by physicists here:judithcurry.com/2022/10/18/the-primacy-of-doubt/

@aminomar7890 Жыл бұрын

45:00 I have wrote that years ago, he just repeated what I have wrote on closer to truth KZfaq channel!

@christopherhamilton3621 Жыл бұрын

And you’re certain it’s entirely your own original idea?

@chemquests Жыл бұрын

Now you know comments on KZfaq has a limited audience & scientific traction. Next time put it in a science journal and write a book.

@Seekthetruth3000 Жыл бұрын

If we live in a matrix/computer program, then God is the master programmer.

@chemquests Жыл бұрын

I think of determinism not as an exculpatory exercise but as an exercise of uncovering in what way each individual is blameworthy. I intend “blame” from a compatibalist perspective.

@MrBallynally2 Жыл бұрын

His stance on climate change and the science around it is interesting as he seems to go out of his way to push the precautionary principle towards stringent climate action even though the evidence can clearly and has been doubted or has been criticized by other high leaning physicists. I would suggest he mightve been swayed or pushed to a more biased view by being closely involved with the IPCC. It seems pretty clear that those who take part in the report assessments are highly politized and contradict findings in the IPCC reports themselves. It is perhaps an important factor. Im just laying it out there.

@aminomar7890 Жыл бұрын

He has nothing to give, he is a simple man uses patching techniques, nothing more!

@MrBallynally2 Жыл бұрын

Around 1.30: yes, i WOULD call them wrong just like climate models, ensembled or not. Everything depends on what you put INTO the equation/variables. That is a choice. So, by leaving out variables and simplifying the system you have actively biased the system. Then to say you have simply 'followed the science' is the ultimate insult to science by denying you had nothing to do with the outcome. Suffice to say that the UK modeling has been abysmal. They, together with the Netherlands and other european health bodies should go on a fact finding mission to Denmark and see how you do things properly. In their models they incorporated a multitude of inputs which turned out very good results. Climate science recommendations ate just like thise with Covid, politicians hiding behind science and science hiding behind the 'neutral' science and put the ball/bomb back to politicians. Both sides not taking any responsibility for any outcome. And then people wonder why they wont trust them! Well, there is your answer.

@chemquests Жыл бұрын

Surprise ending, wow. I was following him until the last 15 minutes. Smart people can always go off the rails