Why Michael Burry is Betting on a Market Crash 2023

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PensionCraft

PensionCraft

Күн бұрын

Michael Burry is in the headlines because people say that he is repositioning his portfolio ready for a big market crash. I think that this is a misinterpretation of his position and that the truth is more nuanced and also more interesting. In this video, I look at exactly what he is doing and the reasons I think underlie his choices.
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Timestamps
00:00 Introduction
01:41 13F Filings
02:09 Short
03:44 Big Short?
08:16 Sector Breakdown
09:43 Consumer Discretionary
10:10 Japan
11:18 China Gone
12:04 Energy
12:31 But..
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Пікірлер: 163
@Pensioncraft
@Pensioncraft 10 ай бұрын
Get One Free Share Worth Up To ‎£⁠100! Create and verify a Trading 212 account, make a minimum deposit of £1 and use our promo code "RAMIN" www.trading212.com/promocodes/RAMIN Trading 212 provides an execution-only service. This video should not be construed as investment advice. Investments can fall and rise. Capital is at risk.
@FarizCircleXVIP
@FarizCircleXVIP 9 ай бұрын
keep going Sir, i love ur video ur Excel about 13f Burry filing i can answer at 2008 Big Short , what happened ? Market Crash
@skinnymoonbob
@skinnymoonbob 10 ай бұрын
Michael Burry has predicted the last 86 out of 1 crashes.
@richmiller540
@richmiller540 10 ай бұрын
2 crashes, but i see your point
@slimjimjimslim5923
@slimjimjimslim5923 10 ай бұрын
I think burry likes to use his influence to stir shit up and see where it goes. Afterall recession is driven by fear and emotion. Burry doesn’t buy until he sees he’s stirred up enough fear. a typical watch what they do, not what they say.
@hymansahak181
@hymansahak181 10 ай бұрын
Awful track record
@fomi4tiger
@fomi4tiger 10 ай бұрын
though he puts money where his mouth is, and still not bankrupt
@gayan369
@gayan369 10 ай бұрын
He is not either 1000 years old 😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂
@mudskipperw
@mudskipperw 10 ай бұрын
hi Ramin, thanks for the details you shared in your videos, they are very educational. I have been wondering, if the buy-ETF-and-hold strategy still applies in the high interest rate environment and what is your thought on the end game for US' or the world's endless QE and ever increasing debts? cheers. Shizhen.
@MaybeLoveHate
@MaybeLoveHate 10 ай бұрын
I did sell at the beginning of August, but the only reason I sold was I was up 40% on the year and that is too much of a gain to keep riding out, that was over my 3 year goal in 1 year. It would stress me to not sell, and I don't like stress. Especially when high yield savings accounts are giving 4.9% like Robinhood. I will dollar cost average everything back in over the next three years though, I am not out. Just going to take my time averaging back in while rates remain high. To me it makes sense there could be some pain, the Fed kind of needs it for their goals.
@UnKnownn2520
@UnKnownn2520 10 ай бұрын
Not some pain brother .. a whooole lot of pain. About a decade worth to be more accurate
@Spungie64
@Spungie64 10 ай бұрын
Great research Ramin ! New subscriber but really finding your channel content first rate. Thanks
@JohanTetzel
@JohanTetzel 10 ай бұрын
Boy are you in for a treat, sir
@Pensioncraft
@Pensioncraft 10 ай бұрын
Awesome, thank you! @Spungie64
@TuNguyenUK
@TuNguyenUK 10 ай бұрын
Thank you for this Ramin, it's very helpful
@Pensioncraft
@Pensioncraft 10 ай бұрын
I'm glad you enjoyed it @TuNguyenUK Thanks, Ramin
@BaileyMxX
@BaileyMxX 10 ай бұрын
Hi Ramin on T212 can you have different cash holdings at once. Eg £100 in pounds and say $212 dollars from selling some US and does it let you choose what cash you want to use or does it have to be in a single currency at a time? So in essence having multiple cash holdings in different currencies at a time if you so choose? Also are US dividends held in $s and only converted if you choose to so in essence can roll them back into further US stocks without being charged currency fees? (Obvs you can't avoid the 15% Withholding tax) Thank you in advance
@bruceb85
@bruceb85 10 ай бұрын
is it a single leg put option? what is the strike price? what is the expiration?
@MickStanciou
@MickStanciou 10 ай бұрын
good quality content like always!
@JohanTetzel
@JohanTetzel 10 ай бұрын
Man, I'm glad you're around to cut through all this stuff. Thanks, Ramin!
@Pensioncraft
@Pensioncraft 10 ай бұрын
Thank you @JohanTetzel I appreciate your support
@michaelcaldwell3709
@michaelcaldwell3709 10 ай бұрын
Lol, you nailed it! Great research. A man’s confessions are always qualified by what he acts on with his wallet.
@Pensioncraft
@Pensioncraft 10 ай бұрын
Thanks @michaelcaldwell3709
@FarizCircleXVIP
@FarizCircleXVIP 9 ай бұрын
keep going Sir, i love ur video ur Excel about 13f Burry filing i can answer at 2008 Big Short , what happened ? Market Crash
@TheRetiredVeteran
@TheRetiredVeteran 9 ай бұрын
It is happening right now. The SPY is down about 8% or more since he started buying puts. I should have jumped in a couple of months ago. I don't won't to jump in too late and be left holding the bag.
@tracy7612
@tracy7612 10 ай бұрын
Thanks! Informative and easily understood.
@Pensioncraft
@Pensioncraft 10 ай бұрын
Glad it was helpful! @tracy7612
@toddnedd2138
@toddnedd2138 10 ай бұрын
With proper risk management, it is possible to be wrong several times and still succeed by being right just once. Scaring retail traders is a tactic used by large players to create liquidity in the market. There is a slight possibility that the value of AI stocks may decrease if lawsuits against the use of public knowledge for AI training are successful. Thanks for the video.
@Party572
@Party572 10 ай бұрын
An inevitable market crash is a possibility to consider. For instance, the NASDAQ (represented by QQQ) had a stock price of $260 in January 2023. Suddenly, it skyrocketed, leading many to invest in large-cap stocks. However, the truth is emerging, and this bubble could burst soon, potentially causing bankruptcies among numerous small and mid-sized companies. It is wise to trim individual stocks and buy an ETF that has an entire stock market portfolio.
@FlyingFun.
@FlyingFun. 10 ай бұрын
I DO think we have been on the verge of a crash for decades due to too much money printing but the printer keeps on going so the only real danger is if the dollar becomes useless due to too much printing, it could happen but nothing else comes close to replacing it, bitcoin is a bit of a hedge against that but who would risk putting it all in that?
@jaym9846
@jaym9846 10 ай бұрын
Hope he wins really big against the Market Manipulators.
@jobsafishthefisheratom
@jobsafishthefisheratom 10 ай бұрын
I would say Japan's small cap ETF (SCJ) looks like more downside to come before taking out the ATH at 84.93. Since is inception in the markets the shows a 5 wave move up since 2008 area, which topped in Sept 2021. Its only had a one leg move down since and looks very much like it is currently moving up in a B wave. RSI momentum will see it fail at approx 75 to 80 dollars. Then it will start a long journey of a C leg down and will bottom around the 30 buck area. I would say Burry if he can read the waves then he will be getting out of these positions quite soon.
@Applepie409
@Applepie409 9 ай бұрын
Brilliant as always-just hope some of it stick#.
@jabberwockytdi8901
@jabberwockytdi8901 10 ай бұрын
Are those ETF's large enough that the liquidity would be there for Bury to buy that kind of volume easily in order to benefit if the strike price was nominally above the market price?
@me0101001000
@me0101001000 10 ай бұрын
Meh, people can say whatever. The market goes up and down, like a bucking horse. Just try not to worry, hold on, and keep doing what you do. Like one of my old management profs said, "whether the market is up, down, or flat, dollar cost averaging is always where it's at"
@bluegtturbo
@bluegtturbo 10 ай бұрын
How does that work if you've got a million in the market and only 10 bucks left to invest? 😅
@womensfinancecoach4573
@womensfinancecoach4573 10 ай бұрын
EXCELLENT ANALYSIS RAMIN! THANK YOU!
@Pensioncraft
@Pensioncraft 10 ай бұрын
That's very kind of you @womensfinancecoach4573, Thanks Ramin
@gayan369
@gayan369 10 ай бұрын
Brilliant explanation ❤
@Pensioncraft
@Pensioncraft 10 ай бұрын
@gayan369 Thank you! 🙂
@oneone8318
@oneone8318 9 ай бұрын
Very interesting 16min.. forgot all about my personal troubles.. thanks.
@markminnis5595
@markminnis5595 10 ай бұрын
I'm a big fan of pension craft but you are only partially correct. Yin are correct that he only paid a fraction of the notional exposure but. Alcultinf the delta of the option the market exposure is c68% of the notional exposure is around a 1 billion using your option assumptions. It's the market exposure that is key not the amount paid or the notional exposure.
@SK-yb7bx
@SK-yb7bx 10 ай бұрын
Burry is always predicting a crash
@SK-yb7bx
@SK-yb7bx 10 ай бұрын
@@AMP98765 The market hasn't crashed in that time. It has flatlined.
@juwright1949
@juwright1949 10 ай бұрын
Excellent! Well done and you are spot one regarding Burry’s strategy. The BIG issue with his strategy is the time decay related to his option positions, of course he could ladder both the strike and maturities of the PUT option contracts. He could have also sold some deeply discounted put options (cash secured puts) on specific stocks to earn some Put premium to help defray the cost of the Put option purchases. With options timing is everything.
@johnaustin9452
@johnaustin9452 10 ай бұрын
wisdom! thank you Ramin.
@Pensioncraft
@Pensioncraft 10 ай бұрын
Glad you liked it! @johnaustin9452
@lainiwakura44
@lainiwakura44 10 ай бұрын
55% each year for the past 3 years, and you say his performance hasn't been good...
10 ай бұрын
Outstanding as always. Burry might be ✅️ right again given the potential contagion from China.
@muffemod
@muffemod 10 ай бұрын
Perma-Bear expects market crash. In other news, water still wet.
@quokkapirquish6825
@quokkapirquish6825 10 ай бұрын
Good analysis, you seemed to have covered the long and short of it. Ramin using his noodle once again
@dw300
@dw300 10 ай бұрын
Technically, if Casandra had prophecy, but would never be believed, then the best play is always say the opposite if you wamt to help the most people.
@kennethbaird968
@kennethbaird968 10 ай бұрын
Burry is doing what he said he would do two years ago he said the financial bubble would take years to play out with falls corrections. This is the second time he has done this and there will be more to follow.
@andrewmarsden1970
@andrewmarsden1970 10 ай бұрын
Good analysis.
@Pensioncraft
@Pensioncraft 10 ай бұрын
Thanks @andrewmarsden6089 pleased you liked it!
@Alex-nf5jy
@Alex-nf5jy 10 ай бұрын
Great video thank you. Do you have any help on how to use the promo code? I used your link, have verified my 212 account and deposited funds, can't see any sign of this £100 or any option to use a promo code when buying a stock/etf. Thanks very much in advance
@Pensioncraft
@Pensioncraft 10 ай бұрын
Hi @Alex-nf5jy I'm sorry you're having trouble with it. Have you tried getting in touch with T212 support? The promo code should definitely work. Thanks, Ramin.
@Alex-nf5jy
@Alex-nf5jy 10 ай бұрын
Thanks @@Pensioncraft , I've raised a ticket. Probably just user error (or maybe it's not applicable to an ISA T212 account(?)). Thanks for your help & keep up the great work
@coderider3022
@coderider3022 10 ай бұрын
Jumping on the bandwagon, Michael burrys predictions needs its own ETF
@MagicNash89
@MagicNash89 10 ай бұрын
So that Burry himself opens a short position on it?🤣
@jdmom29
@jdmom29 10 ай бұрын
thank you very much.
@Pensioncraft
@Pensioncraft 10 ай бұрын
You are welcome! @jdmom29
@mylor1066
@mylor1066 9 ай бұрын
Excellent breakdown.
@Pensioncraft
@Pensioncraft 9 ай бұрын
Much appreciated! @mylor1066
@stevenbond4637
@stevenbond4637 10 ай бұрын
That wasn't profit on JD and Baba Ramin, he increased position sizes by 100% on both in that quarter, there was no major rally by the time he sold out next quarter, but no additional crash either
@Pensioncraft
@Pensioncraft 10 ай бұрын
Hi @stevenbond4637 thanks for that - it's hard to tell how much profit he made as you say given we don't know when he invested and how much he invested, just the total market value when the snapshot is taken for the 13F. I think you're right he almost certainly doubled down on his position before closing it, I showed the prices of the two stocks in the video and it would have been impossible to double their value during that period. Thanks, Ramin.
@stevenharris6626
@stevenharris6626 10 ай бұрын
Nobody can predict anything.....that's why I think that Warren Buffett has it correct. Understand the business you are becoming an "Owen of", and try to buy it at a good price. But don't wait for a total bear market .....you might be waiting for a LONG time. Mainly buy businesses that you understand!!
@JKinLVN
@JKinLVN 10 ай бұрын
Ramin > Following Burry. I remember when Burry tweeted, "You have no idea how short I am". Many KZfaq bloggers used Burry's statement to urge people to short the market. Instead the market rallied higher. Then many of the bloggers started say, "Well, Burry didn't say he was short. He was saying that nobody knew how much if at all he was shorting". Ramin is giving good advice here. Avoid trying to follow these "pundits".
@beancount811
@beancount811 10 ай бұрын
That's the paradox of market prediction, or not: knowing the market is due to crash tomorrow, how would you act or not act? How would other people act or not, knowing what you know and perhaps don't know? Is the original assessment of facts still valid on completion of all transactions? This is why it's always sound to clarify the prognosticator's time horizon before making assumptions or following them into the fray. They may well be wrong today, right tomorrow, wrong again in three months, horribly wrong in two years, and absolutely correct in a century! In truth, few things in economics are varied one at a time via rigid constraints of supply and demand, nor are all things in the background held equal.
@JKinLVN
@JKinLVN 10 ай бұрын
@@beancount811 - I agree! That's why I never listen to Burry, Peter Schiff, Goldman Sax, etc. Too hard to know their entire thinking. Too hard to know their timeframe. Too hard to know when they will cover and go long. Too hard to know if they are right. Instead, I personally allocate a percentage of my savings into the market and cash/bonds. The more favorable the market becomes, the more I move cash into the market and vice versa. But that's just me. For the average person I believe they should make a determination on their risk tolerance, and invest accordingly and dollar cost average into an index fund.
@sebfox2194
@sebfox2194 9 ай бұрын
I do. He's 5'7".
@FlyingFun.
@FlyingFun. 10 ай бұрын
I started investing with etoro because it seemed like a good idea to copy successful traders, wow what a mistake that was, all the apparant expert investers did was lose money faster than any index out there, NEVER copy other investors. The simplest and best is just dca into the index and forget it, When it comes to actually using that investment though a little more nuance is needed, just holding the index and taking out money as you need it can lead to drawing out during a crash so having 2 other things is needed imho, 1 an emergency fund of at least a year 2 bonds where you are getting a garanteed income ie simple savings account maybe mixed with longer term bonds. The old take your age off of 100 and that is the % value of your index part is a little concervative though especially in normal times, maybe when in a bubble add more to the bonds and in a crash add more to the index if you feel the need for a bit of a boost.
@Gaz12360
@Gaz12360 10 ай бұрын
Nice job.
@Pensioncraft
@Pensioncraft 10 ай бұрын
Thank you! Cheers! @garycurtis4597
@mikehardwicke23
@mikehardwicke23 10 ай бұрын
So - all but the Puts are long positions it seems? (Presumably Value stocks).
@rezwhap
@rezwhap 10 ай бұрын
13F filings don’t show (direct) short positions, so we have no idea.
@Pensioncraft
@Pensioncraft 9 ай бұрын
Hi @mikehardwicke23 as @rezwhap says the 13F filings are very imperfect as a means of monitoring holdings. But from what we can see that's right the two puts are the only short positions that we can see so it's more of a long-short portfolio with a value tilt. Thanks, Ramin.
@pagamenosporsupublicidadco2806
@pagamenosporsupublicidadco2806 9 ай бұрын
I completely agree with Michael Burry. According to my mathematical calculations it cannot be otherwise. High interest rates place an enormous burden on the population, which therefore buys less. Less sales means less profit!! It's very simple Technology is overvalued because it yields almost no dividends. I say CRASH 2023 or early 2024 is a certainty.
@simplej7409
@simplej7409 10 ай бұрын
a year ago he was right, SP hit 3600 from 4800 range. $1.6 Billion is not a jock.
@beny.5736
@beny.5736 10 ай бұрын
A broken clock is right twice a day 😆
@Uneducatedopinion57
@Uneducatedopinion57 10 ай бұрын
Here we go again, even if he is right it really doesn't matter as its a buying opportunity
@jdickson242
@jdickson242 9 ай бұрын
Our govs bail out the banks. Our national debt risis but noday defaults. The wheel keeps turning
@StevenBrita
@StevenBrita 10 ай бұрын
great video
@Pensioncraft
@Pensioncraft 10 ай бұрын
Thanks! @StevenBrita
@peoriaos6627
@peoriaos6627 10 ай бұрын
I think while we are criticizing people's comments and decisions, i recall how you were very bearish on the us market in 2023 where a lot of money was made. I haven't seen you talk about BDCs and MREITs much. Many of these have outperformed the S&P500 for many years now with high dividends.
@Dan-uf2vh
@Dan-uf2vh 10 ай бұрын
Shorting stocks is a statistically losing bet. Obviously it is a matter of insider knowledge or a COVID-like obvious market crash or the truly classic short then spread the news to make the market fall then collect your ill-gotten-gain.
@108u9
@108u9 10 ай бұрын
MB: “Honey..it’s a short and I think it caused the crash..” Everyone: SELL EVERYTHING!!! NOW!!! MB: (buys new PC parts for his wife’s computer)
@mobeck
@mobeck 10 ай бұрын
Burry did well with his famous short, but I think it went to his head. He's trying to be too smart too often. His portfolio changes MASSIVELY every couple of quarters. I think he's been absolutely reamed by the market this year.
@Pensioncraft
@Pensioncraft 10 ай бұрын
Hi @mobeck you're right his 13F shows huge changes from quarter to quarter. He's certainly making lots of money for stock brokers 8-) Thanks, Ramin.
@JosephMcEntee99
@JosephMcEntee99 10 ай бұрын
With markets tumbling, inflation soaring, the Fed imposing large interest-rate hike, while treasury yields are rising rapidly-which means more red ink for portfolios this quarter. How can I profit from the current volatile market, I'm still at a crossroads deciding if to liquidate my $125k bond/stock portfolio
@mikeb6354
@mikeb6354 10 ай бұрын
that was fantastic
@Pensioncraft
@Pensioncraft 10 ай бұрын
Thanks @mikeb6354
@shooter.mcgavin
@shooter.mcgavin 10 ай бұрын
He removed his short when options expired 2 Fridays ago silly 🤦🏻‍♂️
@Jackknifegyp
@Jackknifegyp 6 ай бұрын
It's 2024. Did Burry close his bear bet?
@bluegtturbo
@bluegtturbo 10 ай бұрын
Well we all know a crash is inevitable. Even my dog knows that. What of course nobody knows is exactly when.
@vanthangnguyen2566
@vanthangnguyen2566 9 ай бұрын
How many times has he been correct?
@Scymaster
@Scymaster 10 ай бұрын
nasdaq will break the all time high this year, and will hit 20k next year for sure, thats how the stock market will absorps the inflation
@djpuplex
@djpuplex 10 ай бұрын
Broken clock Burry. He's successfully predicted 16 of the last three market crashes.
@eyazdani4537
@eyazdani4537 5 ай бұрын
He runs a hedge fund so if he is shorting an index by selling Options, then he must be long other stocks.
@whocares_today
@whocares_today 10 ай бұрын
Great video, thanks!
@Pensioncraft
@Pensioncraft 10 ай бұрын
Thanks @bloodybastard166 Glad you liked it!
@jabberwockytdi8901
@jabberwockytdi8901 10 ай бұрын
Bury long Stellantis???? interesting to say the least.
@sukhmaidickoff
@sukhmaidickoff 10 ай бұрын
Maybe there ain´t a big crash coming. However: Chinese economy - among that semi-governmental-companies like CountryGarden and Evergrande are close to collapsing, US debt has reached a massively high level, we MIGHT see a global recession coming, inflation is still not fully under control, Germany is the "sick guy" of Europe in terms of economy and we still don´t know if the war in the Ukraine will escalate. The 2Y/10Y yield curve is still inverted (to my knowledge). There are currently MANY factors that could cause a big correction in the markets.
@carloschu7127
@carloschu7127 10 ай бұрын
M. Burry : " I am Bear, need winter "
@buffett1000
@buffett1000 10 ай бұрын
He was right in 2008. And wrong ever since, deleting so many tweets that predicted things which never came to pass.
@annihilationHaven
@annihilationHaven 10 ай бұрын
I am not really concerned with handling my money at all. I would much rather give it to someone who knows what they are doing and isn't a greedy SOB. Of course there is no such person in the world right now - so my plan is just to continue moving forward without the money nonsense.
@ivivivir
@ivivivir 10 ай бұрын
Well, he may writte some twits for the fun (I do not know) but many people/banks say something and do another something on the investing. As Rami mentions, it does not make sense to try copying others (as it is not that easy and circumstances are very different). However, at the end of the day, we have to say frankly, that his skills are not average and made him billionaire basically from scratch. 99.9% of the citizens on earth cannot show similar knowledge at all... As I have read, he started picking stocks on his own first and after, with only 1 MMUSD he launched Scion (not sure if all 1 million were his all or from other small investors). To convert that money in over 1 Billion, it is not a joke, so I guess he is really good investor (not prophet).
@future62
@future62 10 ай бұрын
Why does it upset you to hear people hold billionaires accountable?
@ivivivir
@ivivivir 10 ай бұрын
@@future62 well... I do not get upset for such a thing if you understand that... I have not seen any accountability (legal or utopia? ) for any billionaire, bankers or politicians in power even it is easy to observe they have much to do with crisis wiping out citizens. My point is that saying it is a 'broken' clock is like saying a bat is ugly... but I only state that the bat is a pilot and flies (the rest only talk but they do not fly). I respect the talent and hate mediocrity.
@georgeedwards3284
@georgeedwards3284 10 ай бұрын
Good luck betting against the strongest index in modern time. 79% of fund managers underperformed the S&P 500 last year1. Over the past 10 years, 83% of fund managers fell short of their S&P 500 benchmark, with 94% failing over 20 years2. Similarly, 92% and 93% could not beat the S&P Midcap 400 or the S&P Small Cap 600 respectively during this 20-year period2
@quokkapirquish6825
@quokkapirquish6825 10 ай бұрын
Imagine betting $30m on the nasdaq or SP500 falling in the next few months.
@DivineLove247
@DivineLove247 9 ай бұрын
IF the crash was going to happen in 2023,..... It would have happened 2-3 Months ago. Now there is evidence of the beginning of lower Inflation and slow recovery
@2009blahblah
@2009blahblah 10 ай бұрын
How did his prison stock investment go
@charlesbrown4941
@charlesbrown4941 10 ай бұрын
Even a blind chicken gets a couple of pieces of corn when it pecks.
@sukhmaidickoff
@sukhmaidickoff 10 ай бұрын
Too much advertising on this KZfaq-channel 😞
@m4xfl4xst4r
@m4xfl4xst4r 10 ай бұрын
He paid about .01/share
@FromDesertTown
@FromDesertTown 10 ай бұрын
The AI narrative will fade. Investors did not understand what they were rushing to pump money into. Generative AI (like ChatGPT) is transformative in relatively small parts of the economy like creative writing, but it is not going to drive cars or write the next big app. As investors begin to realize the inherent limitations of generative AI, hot air will be released from tech stocks. AI won't have huge impacts on the economy for many years to come, and markets don't like to look further out than a year or two. Burry is right to position himself for a correction in QQQ. I think AI will make a big impact on markets when it is combined with affordable/mainstream AR (which is not going to be ready for quite some time). Then, further out into the future, a huge leap in AI will come when it is run on quantum computers - that will shock markets.
@erandeser5830
@erandeser5830 10 ай бұрын
For every 5 wrong predictions he makes up with 1 that is right. In the meantime, he gets free publicity for every looming catastrophe, publicity inaccessible to optimists. Finally it is a nice ego trip. He will be recalled as the one who saw, forgetting his track record of duds.
@makeitrain113
@makeitrain113 10 ай бұрын
i mean he probably is just trolling everyone because his hedge fund is performing good
@hightide4782
@hightide4782 9 ай бұрын
Michael Burry was right “once in a row.”
@robertallan4489
@robertallan4489 10 ай бұрын
He's, like many, have been predicting a crash for a very long time. Like everyone else, he is baffled as everyone else is. Keep predicting a fall and he's bound to get it right eventually. He just got lucky , once.
@Ratty555
@Ratty555 10 ай бұрын
👍
@musheopeaus4125
@musheopeaus4125 10 ай бұрын
No matter how much I watch that put option I don’t understand it.
@beancount811
@beancount811 10 ай бұрын
Think of it as buying a right to do something before or on a specific date but not being forced to do so. It's one way to deal with risk in an uncertain environment where outcomes aren't guaranteed. In another words - Burry paid money to be able to make a choice within a fixed timeframe (in this case to sell against a broad index), which insures the bulk of his portfolio. Rights as commodities is a bit abstract, but if you focus on why someone might want to do this, you're 90% to getting the value of these things and what they are.
@stevo728822
@stevo728822 10 ай бұрын
Today's share price is $100. You buy a put for 3 months time with a fixed selling price of $80. 3 months later, the share price has dropped to $60. You buy at $60 and then sell at $80 fixed price you bought with the put. You made $20. But if you get it wrong and the share price rises to $120, you're $80 put option is worthless because it's a guaranteed loss of $40. The option expires into the empty void of space.
@beancount811
@beancount811 10 ай бұрын
Looks like he learned that his predictions are so so and covered his botty this time.
@luisdetomaso867
@luisdetomaso867 10 ай бұрын
This video has not aged well with the stock market just posting the biggest up day in three months...
@porschecarreras992cabriole8
@porschecarreras992cabriole8 10 ай бұрын
Burry has 50% chance to be right! Just like anyone’s guess!! I wonder how many times has he won the lottery as well! 😂
@gorambo
@gorambo Ай бұрын
After 9 months I'm back to say Burry was wrong at least for now.
@bentp4891
@bentp4891 10 ай бұрын
Michael Bury is betting on a market crash because Michael Bury is always betting on a market crash
@Pensioncraft
@Pensioncraft 10 ай бұрын
Hi @bentp4891 I guess a broken clock is right twice a day 8-) But I think his position is a bit more nuanced than that, as I say in the video. Thanks, Ramin
@rineleff2009
@rineleff2009 10 ай бұрын
Honestly I've been around the market long enough to know that this ups and downs can still prove to be highly beneficial, time again I've seen people use these windows of opportunities to make millions and set up for retirement. I just don't know how they did it.
@maxwelltroy2375
@maxwelltroy2375 10 ай бұрын
Worst mistake you can make is to let emotions drive your investment decision for real. A diversified portfolio, with appreciate amount of risk to match your needs, is like a shipment to survive all storms. But no one save you if you jump out.
@dwrety
@dwrety 10 ай бұрын
This is why I don't like Michael Burry at all. First of all, his investments are mostly bullish and yet he is constantly selling "anxiety" about the market crash. Why can't he just be honest? And the media, doing nothing but to exacerbate the anxiety. I am a day trader, honestly I believe most successful traders don't really have any opinions about the market directions, they just trade what they see. It's not up to us to control the market and no one can. The best practice for a long term investor is to buy-and-hold of the market index funds or ETFs and add longs whenever there is a big crash, and you gain nothing but anxiety and fear from Burry's words.
@ebeymusic4675
@ebeymusic4675 8 ай бұрын
I Predict michael bury will lose his money on this bet
@garodrameryan980
@garodrameryan980 10 ай бұрын
Imho, Michale burry is just another source of noise. Makes much more sense than kevin o'leary or the rich dad guy, but in the long run just noise
@Logical-imp
@Logical-imp 10 ай бұрын
Burry is a fan of heavy metal music, including bands such as Obituary, Lamb of God, Amon Amarth, Slipknot, King Diamond and Pantera.🎸🎷🪗🎺🪘🎤
@woodyworld9341
@woodyworld9341 10 ай бұрын
That is what turned The Big Short into one of the best movies, Pantera is playing.
@seery88
@seery88 10 ай бұрын
you aint bullshittin
@mrfrugal1091
@mrfrugal1091 10 ай бұрын
He is always betting on a big crash, a broken clock is right twice a day 🤣
@MegaArtManiac
@MegaArtManiac 10 ай бұрын
buy nvda on Monday would you. leverage your dogs kidneys
@hymansahak181
@hymansahak181 10 ай бұрын
The guy has made 2 right calls and 100 wrong calls. So why do people listen to him? A monkey throwing darts at the Wall Street Journal and pick what to buy and what to short would do much much much better.
@brunoheggli2888
@brunoheggli2888 10 ай бұрын
He only needs to be 10% better with hes predictions then the average over the longrun to be extremly sucessfull!
@rajibdeka2207
@rajibdeka2207 7 ай бұрын
Burry is always predicting something. Totally overrated.
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