A new look at active vs passive (Michael Green)

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4 жыл бұрын

As passive strategies continue to gain market share, Thiel Macro’s Michael Green has been considering the implications. In a thought-provoking presentation, Michael builds an interesting thesis, connecting abnormal short-term market behavior with longer term cyclical demographics. He makes a compelling case that passive strategies are distorting the market’s ability to discount new flows, affecting valuations, correlations, volatility, plus those strategies seeking opportunity in mispricings (i.e. hedge funds).

Пікірлер: 33

@chetanshenoy3093 4 жыл бұрын

Under appreciated thesis but highly relevant, as we will see in the future years.

@Zlaylowz 3 жыл бұрын

Thank you Mr. Green. Goddamn brilliant.

@Baklau007 3 жыл бұрын

"We will encounter some sort of cyclical event during which corporate profitability deteriorates.... *COUGH, COUGH* excuse me" Uncanny foreshadowing. 35:20

@Foekcisoqnfis13 4 жыл бұрын

[14:12]Feb 2018, comovement, # of stocks moving in the same direction hit 100 %. It happened again in December.

@alexanderalejandre241 4 жыл бұрын

Brilliant.

@sejongchun8350 3 жыл бұрын

Brilliant presentation. Mr. Green has further elaborated his thesis in various interviews.

@AgentOffice 4 жыл бұрын

No one's going to be able to do price discovery when you're fighting passive

@anonymousAJ 2 жыл бұрын

Don't fight it. It's value time.

@senli9845 2 жыл бұрын

wonderful insights, but I think, eventually when the active managers can not provide enough liquidity to support the market, central bank is going to swoop in and save the day. So far, the Fed can only hold MBS and Treasuries. Eventually, Fed is going to be able to hold corporate debts.

@ControlTheGuh 3 жыл бұрын

Curious to see him update this thesis with the current retail run in the stock market

@AgentOffice 4 жыл бұрын

Dead on

@jacobsteenhuysen7526 4 жыл бұрын

WELL, he was right

@kaos092 2 жыл бұрын

Can anyone explain what he means when he says instead of owning 40% bonds and 60% equities you now own 100% bonds and 100% equities? I understand the part about bonds creating a synthetic put on equities, but the rest is lost on me. Is he saying that people are leveraging their bonds to buy equities?

@joseph.bkazmi 2 жыл бұрын

The way Mike so eloquently explained why interest rates don't matter when discounting equities left me with a long pause...

@kennethcaldwell79 3 жыл бұрын

I don't have evidence but it appears that more and more people are buying individual stocks these days usually platforms like Robin Hood. How does this play into this index fund scare?

@moneyobsessed 3 жыл бұрын

thats pocket money, who has hundreds of grands invest in etfs or mutual funds

@fallenangel2123 4 жыл бұрын

High level GIBBERISH

@mkaberli 3 жыл бұрын

Really? Please give me one example and explain why you consider it to be gibberish. The onus is on you. Just because you can’t understand the concepts, doesn’t mean they’re gibberish.

@fallenangel2123 3 жыл бұрын

@@mkaberli This is not a "market" - it's actively managed, actively watched etc. Most of what he says is irrelevant

@ControlTheGuh 3 жыл бұрын

@@fallenangel2123 lol you must be in another market than I am. May want to read up how passive is doing buy and sell decisions

@fallenangel2123 3 жыл бұрын

@@ControlTheGuh I was talking about the "stock market" - NOT the "bond market", "currency..." or "commodity..." (I don't really care about which one is "yours")

@fallenangel2123 3 жыл бұрын

@@ControlTheGuh ... "... buy and sell decisions ..." this one is easi - SELL the rallies and BUY the dips