Important to note that the reason for the fall of Intel was nothing more than your typical quarter-to-quarter system that all American companies are held to. It’s both the reason Intel fell, as well as the reason it won’t come back. The investor community has a way buying companies, slashing and burning costs (especially the ones that make their products a standout), and then putting it up for sale while their massive cost-cutting measures still haven’t reared its ugly head in the market. The investor/investment culture here needs to better reflect long-term goals as in other countries like they do in East Asia. Wow! Full circle!

we live in a bizarre world right now. humans in the future will discuss this time period in their history classes. no matter in which direction today’s conflicts move.

00:04 🌍 The world's most critical advanced technology, essential for AI, is predominantly manufactured in Taiwan by TSMC. 01:40 💥 A conflict between China and Taiwan could profoundly impact the global AI ecosystem due to Taiwan's pivotal role in chip fabrication. 03:16 🖥 Companies like Nvidia and AMD design chips but rely on foundries like TSMC for manufacturing, and only a few companies globally can produce leading-edge chips. 05:53 🛑 Geopolitical tensions have led to bans on high-end AI chip exports to China, pushing for US-based production to reduce dependency on Taiwan. 07:29 🛡 The "silicon shield" theory suggests China won't invade Taiwan due to its reliance on TSMC, but the uncertainty remains in a potential conflict's impact on chip production. 09:41 💡 Samsung and Intel could be alternative chip producers, but the immediate gap in capabilities if TSMC is offline is significant. 10:44 🌟 Existing AI chip stocks and alternative fabs globally offer limited fallback options, but losing TSMC's capability would disrupt cutting-edge AI progress significantly.

We have a small company here in Norway that produces semiconductors. I tried to ask them if they are planning on expanding their facilities and start making more and better chips, but they only answered that they hope I understand that there's a lot that has to be a secret in this regard. Europe, not only one or two countries here, must start making highly advanced chips as well.

Great analysis and information on this TED Talk. Let's hope things don't escalate: a war between China and the US over Taiwan would be devastating for all humanity.

Each time he says the word "A.I." replace it with "Supercomputing" and this will become both substantially more accurate and more profound.

Rob forgot to mention that Germany receives two new fabs as well: one from Intel and one from TSMC. The EU will become a strategic pillar in the future of chip production.

Besides AI chip the majority of all other chips are made by TSMC too, eg. all Apple’s chips for every single Apple product. An attack on Taiwan would be devastating to the entire world, possibly starting WW3.

Rob, as a seasoned assembler coder from the 70s, we were well aware of this issue all along, but unfortunately, our concerns were often overlooked. Here's my best tip: Prioritize addressing the challenges within your country, as that is where the most dangerous risks may lie.

Francisco: this is so very true. We had a steel manufacturing plant here in my home town. ET Pybus. It had a large shop now a farmers food market. This big plant had a couple hundred workers. All the farmers and many businesses had the equipment and manufacturing they needed here in town. In the 70's it was bought out by Wall Street types and immediately disappeared. We have had no manufacturing here in Central Washington since these geniuses ruined my town. We had a large Ernst hardware store that went out of business when Lowes and Home Depot moved in. Now we have 1/10th the number of hardware items we used to have. A home grown hardware store is in Bellingham that is like what we used to have. My community has lost it's ability to fend for itself in this complex world.

Challenging times might be closer than we think. The gains have largely been powered by the AI boom in tech - and that has led to an unstable situation

I’ve often wondered about TSMC and mainland China, especially with the US ban on high end chips. This video is very important

Maybe the end of AI is not such a bad thing.

11:13 Why would this be devastating for humanity? We've made it this far on subpar chips and without advanced AI.

Oh my, intriguing

Perhaps a blessing in disguise - the slowdown in AI development we quite possibly need.

Vitally important for the free world to fix this and build more chips in a wide variety of locations.

enlightening

This video is only 2 weeks old and I see TSMC is the 11th biggest company in the world today by market cap

The hypothetical slowing down of AI might be a blessing in disguise.

I didn't realize people were unaware of this!

You won't have to worry about AI once the nukes start flying. This is kind of like expressing concern about your coffee getting spilled as you're driving toward the edge of a cliff.

Let me just put it simply: for those of you who said TSMC can be easily and quickly replaceable, it's not that easy and you have not done your homework. Samsung and Intel know that, and they are the next smartest people in this field. So the only thing left is to protect Taiwan with greater vigor than we did with Ukraine, a country that doesn't even hold any world-choking technology. What Rob didn't mention was that aside from the dominant position in AI chips, TSMC holds 54% of the chip market in the world. With it gone, you can visualize an even worse global manufacturing shortage than the one we experienced during the pandemic. Never mind the AI machines, you can't even repair your computers, your cars, your TVs, your phones, and you can't buy new ones as they are stopped on the production lines.

Eliezer Yudkowsky might think that disruption of TSMC is the better timeline....

Chilling to think about...

Oh no the basilisk sent his first minion, with a peace request

I don't give a flying flock about the AI aspect, is the more standard tech that matters.

Everyone is ignoring the fact we are in a mass extinction event.... we're acting as if all is normal....

Anxiety over Taiwan could be the stress that prompts A.I. to achieve sentience.

It was said long ago that the next global conflict would be over AI. Not necessarily meaning war, but not excluding such a scenario as well. People seem to have no option when governments have already decided. How do you like yours now?

Failure is NOT an end.

The streaming of this video seems intermittent and choppy -- Network connectivity? -- but I hope the message is coming across for the rest?

Rob is the man

A halt to what were calling A.I. today would actually be a good thing.

A fab facility is being built in Arizona, partially made possible by the CHIPS act. My wife works for the company building that facility for TSMC. There are other facilities planned right here in the U.S. Sure, it won't solve the problem entirely, but it's a very good start. Further, those suggesting that China will attack Taiwan within the next 5 years are alarmists. Yes, it's possible, but not very likely.

who provide the high end chipmaking machines: the Dutch company ASML.

"It is in your nature to destroy yourselves." - The Terminator

And ASML makes their equipment that no one else has been able to make. This talk should be about ASML mate!

I remember when EMC was the most important tech company you never heard of. Thanks Dell!

- Understand the geopolitical risks to AI chip production (0:19) - Recognize the unique role of TSMC in AI development (0:38) - Be aware of the US government's export ban policy (5:50) - Consider the implications of new chip fabs being built in the US (6:25) - Evaluate alternative chip production capabilities globally (10:55)

08:07 "... to _retake_ Taiwan" did I hear that right?!

I’m not trying to throw shade but, he’s much better & clearer than Peter Zeihan

A powerful description of the advantages of peaceful diplomacy to maintain the momentum of AI.

So Luddites still do not have cause for optimism?!!

Amazing talk-Thank you! The USA needs to support Intel & grow their capabilities, I.e., collaborative partnerships.

Interesting. Good to know this. Nanometer chip and the future. Will Samsung be able to do it?

Coming to testify here today

So we could risk WW3 to secure the chips that will build AI, and that AI could destroy humanity if it goes wrong. Lol humans.

One chance humanity could be shielded from AI Doom.

So Google with their TPUs are not relying on TSMC?

Companies often relocate

The power socket 😂🤣😅

I hope there’s not a war. Could we find another way to destroy AI chip manufacturing? 😂

Music to the ears of concerned citizens like Dawdat and Musk

Has anyone noticed in entire talk he never moved even an inch. Super focused on his argument. 👍

We already have the infrastructure and technology in place to handle AI processing. Considering task efficiency will only improve, AI isn't even remotely hardware dependant at this stage. We should be worried about internet distruption and control then hardware shortages at this point.

We never think about the geopolitical factors that influence the Tech industry. Maybe be should be paying more attention to what goes on in other parts of the world. 🤔

Maybe this would be the pause we need to try to get more safety measures designed before we unleash this on the world.

Without saying it's not good to pay more attention to the delicate situation around Taiwan: any kind of panic about a possible worldwide collapse of TSMC-fueled AI technology is almost completely unfounded. First of all: *we. Don't. Need. AI.* Not really. Sure AI has grand opportunities, but it's currently complete speculation whether it will do anything to help with the actual pressing problems the world has (climate change, misinformation, war...) or indeed just make them worse. AI is only "needed" in the sense that economic players who have access to AI will in many areas outcompete players without AI, but a global semiconductor shortage of critical semiconductors would not skew this, it would just mean everyone is moving slower. Which I personally think could only be a good thing, because moving slower would give humanity a better chance to actually get AI right and not end up in some kind of rogue AI nightmare. But even if you think AI is purely a good thing and you want it as fast as possible: a similar principle applies. TSMC is not doing any magic. Lots of companies can in principle produce AI chips, they just can't do it nearly as well as TSMC. If Nvidia decided to have its GPUs be produced by Intel in 10 nm technology, that would work _just fine_ - only, the chips would run like 50% slower, take perhaps 3 times more energy and be twice as expensive. Of course right now that would make these chips completely uncompetitive on the market, but only because the competition does use TSMC's superior capabilities. If TSMC were wiped off the Earth, _everybody_ would have to switch to the somewhat worse chips, but mainly that would only mean the AI companies would have to spend some more money on hardware and electricity. Nothing _devestating_ about that.

Of course we can't start a chips home.

Perhaps the people most concerned with the lack of Chips should be the the Poms. No chips, no fish and ...

Migrating the chips industry from Taiwan is something that will happen, that's out of question, whether China invades or not. The key thing is the technological asymmetry power that it can generate by China or Taiwan under stronf Chinese influence having control over 90% of the production of most advanced chips in the world, while your enemy (the West) must invest 5 or more years to recover that technological capacity somewhere else. That's the deal breaker.

there are 5-10X as many tsmc veterans in China than in Arizona

This is the same company with a plant being built in Arizona? Seems less like a single point of failure now.

We fall, we learn, we grow, we adapt.

Given that we don't actually use AI for anything that important, at the moment, what's the big deal. We can take the time to ramp up GPU production as needed.

Dr. Brown seems intrested, i belive he use chips in DeLorian

A few years ago, the President worked with Congress to put through the chps act - set up chip manufacturing stateside. Factory is running, slowly expanding production. Plan is to manufacture a good portion of all high-tech chips used by US companies- and branch into the extreme high end chip manufacturing. But we are reliant on Taiwan for now. Absolutely. Its not good. At least some steps are being taken to change that.

What a beat-up.

00:06 Most advanced AI chips produced in single facility 01:39 China-Taiwan conflict would paralyze the global AI ecosystem 03:05 Fabless chip makers and foundries play a crucial role in manufacturing chips. 04:30 TSMC's irreplaceable position in the semiconductor industry 06:02 US policy and Taiwan fabs impact China's AI capabilities 07:29 China's dependence on Taiwan for chips 08:51 TSMC's fabs going offline would disrupt global production of cutting-edge AI chips. 10:13 Intel aims to produce two-nanometer chips in 2024

Technology and AI will develop even the best company is buried for various reasons. No company is irreplaceable.

One more reason to bring manufacturing back home in the US

His catastrophic prediction actually falls short - between Taiwan and mainland China, they produce practically all chips needed for building a PC. Suspending these factories to western markets will produce a few years of material draught until similar production levels are available elsewhere, and at that time the cost of building a PC skyrockets.

Start Making Chips Fashionable...eg Nosering Chips, or Tounge Chips or also ring chips...Can't loose

We can't afford an Ecovid for chips.

The world is near the end i can feel it

There is no escaping the harsh reality that even more jobs will be lost due to AI. Therefore, some countries might have different priorities.

I’m surprised no country has tried to take out silicon valley or Taiwán. I mean only one country is going to win this race. Does nobody understand what’s coming once agi has been achieved? It seems like it.

should be made in use

well well the course of history won't be the same if copyright isn't work this way

Except that we've been setting up our own fabrication facilities, and it won't be long till they're up and running, especially with pressures increasing to build them.

Would the fans survive a kinetic invasion?

Good talk. But only if you go with the assumption that we must have AI. Quite some experts -even from the field of AI- are not all that happy with the current speed of development and its direction. Perhaps we could be well off loosing manufacturing capabilities if that buys us time to rethink how we want to go about developing advanced AI in the first place…

Saw the stage backdrop and wondered, can I have a 'P' please Bob? 🤔

Just one temper tantrum from our star and poof we are cavemen again...

fitting they got a robot to tell us about AI's critical dependency

Yummy! I love chips!

Whats TSMC building in the desert by my home then?

Start building several of these factories in other locations. Or is this not possible. Please explain this.

Well, if AI tech begins to run ahead of its incorporation, it would be convenient to put development on hold for a few years. It would make sense in light of a threat to make TSMC close up shop. It would be much cheaper and humane than doing the war thing.

🎯 Key Takeaways for quick navigation: 00:04 🌐 *Overview of TSMC and its significance in AI* - TSMC is the key manufacturer of advanced AI chips for various tech giants. - The geopolitical location of TSMC in Taiwan raises concerns about the future of AI. - TSMC's role is crucial for the entire field of artificial intelligence. 02:11 🧠 *Understanding the semiconductor industry* - Differentiating between fabless chip makers and foundries. - Explaining why TSMC is the dominant player in chip manufacturing. - Discussing the factors that contribute to TSMC's dominance, such as economies of scale and deep partnerships. 05:53 🌍 *Geopolitical factors and the US response* - The US government's actions to restrict AI chip exports to China. - TSMC's investment in US-based fabs and its impact on the AI industry. - The ongoing dependence on Taiwan for advanced chip production and its potential consequences. 08:33 ⚠ *Implications of a potential conflict* - The vulnerability of TSMC's fabs in the event of a China-Taiwan conflict. - The impact on global AI chip production and technology advancement. - Considerations for alternative chip manufacturers like Samsung and Intel. 10:44 🌱 *Hope and potential solutions* - Acknowledging the existing stock of AI chips in the world. - The possibility of utilizing other fabs for lagging-edge logic chips. - The importance of diplomatic efforts to ensure the uninterrupted production of AI chips. Made with HARPA AI

"Let us hope that diplomacy prevails" is wild. You said the geopolitical quiet part out loud with "silicon shield." Eastern Ukraine's rare earths and Israel's fabrication capabilities are weirdly well girded against the event of a Taiwanese ship-burning due to invasion. Apparently American exceptionalism is operating as an international hedge fund. If the US government had invested a quarter of what's gone into these proxy wars into bolstering training for jobs required to get the Phoenix fab off the ground, it might have a chance to push 5% global supply by 25. I've got to tell you, the guys at Happy Valley Happy Hours are telling a bleak tale.

Intel has several new fabs coming online for 3 and 2nm processes in the next 2 years - that should both alleviate this failure point and bring money back to the US - a win-win...

It's not only AI that will be impacted... It's the entire world that will be crippled if tsmc would stop producing.

If there is a place on earth that is geopolitically bulletproof, let’s build everything important there.

If there is demand, there will be supply, don't worry, just let the market work

Testing timestamps 5:00 3:00 hello world

Last i heard was that China and Taiwan were talking peacefully for the 1st time in a long time and having talks about them reuniting as one country again.

So in other words strategic planning for AI is in the hands of organizations that are short on HI.

They put nurons in the chips.