Alibaba Stock Analysis & Intrinsic Value Estimates

Alibaba Stock Analysis & Intrinsic Value Estimates | BABA Stock Deep Dive

Рет қаралды 9,919

Күн бұрын

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Is Alibaba ($BABA) Stock a Buy? In this video, I go through my stock analysis for Alibaba and share the key parts of my research on the company. I discuss Alibaba's earnings compression, due to spawning new businesses & share a great clip from Mohnish Pabrai explaining why spawning can be a great strategy for businesses. I also discuss Alibaba's Return on Capital and their Reinvestment Rate, and at the end of the video I show my full valuation model for Alibaba, including a brand new spreadsheet (You guys know I love ma spreadsheets). As always, I'm just some dude on the internet trying to predict the future, so please don't take my figures or opinions as buy or sell recommendations.
Comment below if you have any questions or video requests. I read ALL the comments! If you found this video useful, please consider supporting the channel by smashing the like button! I'll always try to deliver the best possible content and it will ALWAYS BE FREE! Love you all :D THANKS FOR WATCHING!!
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How to use ROCE Spreadsheet Video: • My Checklist for Findi...
How to Value Stocks (Alibaba DCF): • How to Calculate Intri...
If you're interested, here's the link to download my ROCE and Reinvestment Rate Spreadsheet: docs.google.com/spreadsheets/...
Intrinsic Value Spreadsheet:
docs.google.com/spreadsheets/...
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Book List Below:
Richer, Wiser, Happier by William Green - amzn.to/3iCp8Pu
The Psychology of Money by Morgan Housel - amzn.to/3EYQuXC
The Dhando Investor by Mohnish Pabrai - amzn.to/3ulAqtM
Rule 1 by Phil Town - amzn.to/3F3MJQJ
One Up on Wall St by Peter Lynch - amzn.to/3uoqCzo
The Intelligent Investor by Benjamin Graham - amzn.to/3F0kGkX
Influence by Robert Cialdini - amzn.to/3ulF2jJ
Poor Charlies Almanack: The Wit and Wisdom of Charles T Munger - amzn.to/3B3UbKg
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Music: Lakey Inspired - Better Days. • LAKEY INSPIRED - Bette...
Stream on Spotify: spoti.fi/2YxsvYG
Artwork: Thumbnail+Background by Canva www.canva.com/
Sources: Footage Courtesy of WSJ, Alibaba Group, Mohnish Pabrai
/ alibabagroup
• Amazon vs. Alibaba: Th...
• Mohnish Pabrai’s Lectu...
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Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor and these videos are for entertainment purposes only. Please do your own due diligence before making any investing decisions. Investing IQ is not liable for any loss caused, whether due to negligence or otherwise arising from the use of, or reliance on, the information provided directly or indirectly
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Please note: Some of the links above are Amazon Affiliate links where I'll earn a small commission if you make a purchase at no additional cost to you.

Пікірлер: 43

@investingiq Жыл бұрын

How to use ROCE Spreadsheet Video: kzfaq.info/get/bejne/aqqHjbGZm9DHdI0.html How to Value Stocks (Alibaba DCF): kzfaq.info/get/bejne/aLR2h6aA3rSbeZc.html If you're interested, here's the link to download my ROCE and Reinvestment Rate Spreadsheet: docs.google.com/spreadsheets/... Intrinsic Value Spreadsheet: docs.google.com/spreadsheets/...

@investingiq Жыл бұрын

Did any of you guys notice the random bird chirp now and again throughout the video? 😂 The birds here in Australia are pretty loud and for some reason this particular bird decided to sit outside the window and sing the entire time I was recording haha....

@timandrew7622 Жыл бұрын

What bird? 😂

@prestonsilva884 Жыл бұрын

Been holding BABA for almost 2 years now, and I watch videos to see other people ideas sometimes. You’re the first person I’ve seen go into the margins of the different segments, and apply the “spawner” idea to them. Thank You for the info, this is good stuff. Best of luck on your journey!

@investingiq Жыл бұрын

Thank you, I'm really glad you found it interesting :) thanks so much for watching

@Christian-cw9vo Жыл бұрын

By far the best Alibaba analysis I have seen. Thanks.

@investingiq Жыл бұрын

Thank you so much! :)

@mustadxb09 Жыл бұрын

great analysis! I was planning to sell my BABA shares at loss. But now I changed my mind and will be more patient for a fast recovery...

@investingiq Жыл бұрын

Please don't just take my word for it! lol I might be wrong :)

@vermasean Жыл бұрын

Nice breakdown! Obligatory Liked and Sub’d! 👍▶️

@investingiq Жыл бұрын

Thank you! :)

@rahulchahal3824 Жыл бұрын

Loved the analysis

@investingiq Жыл бұрын

Thanks so much!

@marioarcari7649 Жыл бұрын

Great to see irish lads on youtube .

@investingiq Жыл бұрын

Cheers Mario! :)

@justinbeghly1435 Жыл бұрын

Excellent analysis, this has been my thesis as well, I enjoy the confirmation bias. The multiple is probably too conservative, at least in normal times. The margins of cloud and core business should kick that multiple up to 40 or so even in ten years I’d guess . I’d like to see a dive into their international e-commerce and the competitive advantage that may exist. B2 to B2 internationally. I’m curious on delivery times and cost advantages for buyers, ect

@investingiq Жыл бұрын

Thanks Justin! Yeah it probably is too conservative, I mainly did it as sort of a margin of safety incase I'm wrong about the revenue estimates. I might do another video soon where I go deeper in the individual segments, and try to figure out what the margins etc will look like at maturity, and also what segments they a large edge in.

@adsacrum Жыл бұрын

Thank you for great analysis! Do you maybe have template for individual Alibaba business growth CAGR which is first on your spreadsheet? It would be really helpful!

@tongwu Жыл бұрын

Have u considered the impact of pinduoduo

@ja202 Жыл бұрын

Great analysis, thanks for sharing! Taking the spawner / Amazon analogy a step further, do you have any views on AliCloud's potential in say 3-5 years? If thanks to op leverage AliCloud's op margins get to ~15% (vs AWS' ~30%) by say 2025 that would change BABA's profile entirely. The key question being: will it get there? (market dynamics, comp advantage, etc.)

@investingiq Жыл бұрын

Thanks mate, I'm glad you enjoyed it! Yeah I think over time, Alicloud will have decent margins. Maybe not AWS level, but high teens or early 20s I would guess. I think it will have an effect on the margin profile, but not that much as it's a small chunk of the overall revenue. It's tough to say whether they'll get there or not. I think Alibaba will probably lose some market share to competitors, but I think the overall pie (cloud market) will keep growing

@sheming106 Жыл бұрын

Could you explain how you came to the total capital employed? Thanks in advance!

@investingiq Жыл бұрын

Capital employed is total assets minus current liabilities on the balance sheet.

@altoclef7228 Жыл бұрын

Great video and Great Analysis！ I am also wondering where I could find the article wrote by Fred Liu, thanks a lot.

@investingiq Жыл бұрын

www.haydencapital.com/wp-content/uploads/Hayden-Capital-Quarterly-Letter-2018-Q1.pdf it's from his shareholders letters :)

@altoclef7228 Жыл бұрын

@@investingiq Thanks for your sharing!

@SongSupply Жыл бұрын

Hey, I love your analysis in this video and the perspective you give. I am writing a equity report in hopes to get an internship. Would it be alright with you if I use the graph at 6:06 in my report?

@investingiq Жыл бұрын

Thanks mate! Yeah no worries, I hope all goes well and you get the internship :)

@SongSupply Жыл бұрын

@@investingiq TYSM. Your a legend. Keep going and you’ll be in the big leagues of KZfaq soon enough.

@sheming106 Жыл бұрын

Are BABA, BRK and MU your full portfolio? Thanks for sharing, undervalued account bro!

@investingiq Жыл бұрын

No I dont own BRK and MU, only BABA out of those 3

@jakubbroz7042 3 ай бұрын

@@investingiq Hello, what are the 2 others, please? :)

@ahmedxh Жыл бұрын

Do you have the Fred Lui letter? Thank you

@investingiq Жыл бұрын

Yeah mate - head to Google and search for Hayden Capital Management letters

@ahmedxh Жыл бұрын

@@investingiq I did they are many. What quarter or at least year this was released? Sorry to trouble you

@investingiq Жыл бұрын

Oh sorry haha www.haydencapital.com/wp-content/uploads/Hayden-Capital-Quarterly-Letter-2018-Q1.pdf its Q1 2018 :) No bother at all dude, happy to help! :)

@alantan79 Жыл бұрын

VIE days are over, the sucking in of overseas money is longer viable and money generator machine has stopped working. The stock price will remain like this for many years and will eventually only list in Hong Kong. Keep investing in BABA and stack up your opportunity cost. Unless your money is ready to burn 100% and left for 8-10yrs, you are better of going into other companies.